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Residential Water Heating Demand Side Management (DSM) - South Africa

The electricity crisis in South Africa has deteriorated significantly, with the country experiencing frequent and prolonged rolling blackouts. These outages have severe economic repercussions, leading to decreased growth and productivity. Demand Side Management (DSM), particularly focusing on electric water heaters due to their significant energy consumption and peak demand contribution, is identified as a key strategy. The study aims to assess opportunities for DSM programs targeting water heating to reduce energy consumption and peak demand. It entails developing a bottom-up simulation model to establish a baseline scenario of water heating electricity load demand in 2023 and 2033, identifying technologies for energy reduction, estimating the impacts of a selected number of measures and providing recommendations to inform policy makers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

LFSPMC: Linear feature selection program using the probability of misclassification

The computational procedure and associated computer program for a linear feature selection technique are presented. The technique assumes that: a finite number, m, of classes exists; each class is described by an n-dimensional multivariate normal density function of its measurement vectors; the mean vector and covariance matrix for each density function are known (or can be estimated); and the a priori probability for each class is known. The technique produces a single linear combination of the original measurements which minimizes the one-dimensional probability of misclassification defined by the transformed densities.

Guseman, L. F., Jr.↗

Global properties of nuclei at finite-temperature within the covariant energy density functional theory

In stellar environments nuclei appear at finite temperatures, becoming extremely hot in core-collapse supernovae and neutron-star mergers. However, due to theoretical and computational complexity, most model calculations of nuclear properties are performed at zero temperature, while those existing at finite temperatures are limited only to selected regions of the nuclide chart. In this study we perform the global calculation of nuclear properties for even-even 8 ≤ Z ≤ 104 nuclei at temperatures in range 0 ≤ T ≤ 2 MeV. Calculations are based on the finite-temperature relativistic Hartree-Bogoliubov model supplemented by the Bonche-Levit-Vautherin vapor subtraction procedure. We find that near the neutron-drip line the continuum states have significant contribution already at moderate temperature T ≈ 1 MeV, thus emphasizing the necessity of the vapor subtraction procedure. Results include neutron emission lifetimes, quadrupole deformations, neutron-skin thickness, proton and neutron pairing gaps, entropy and excitation energy. Up to the temperature T ≈ 1 MeV, the nuclear landscape is influenced only moderately by the finite-temperature effects, mainly by reducing the pairing correlations. Here, as the temperature increases further, the effects on nuclear structures become pronounced, reducing both the deformations and the shell effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fast Solution in Sparse LDA for Binary Classification

An algorithm that performs sparse linear discriminant analysis (Sparse-LDA) finds near-optimal solutions in far less time than the prior art when specialized to binary classification (of 2 classes). Sparse-LDA is a type of feature- or variable- selection problem with numerous applications in statistics, machine learning, computer vision, computational finance, operations research, and bio-informatics. Because of its combinatorial nature, feature- or variable-selection problems are NP-hard or computationally intractable in cases involving more than 30 variables or features. Therefore, one typically seeks approximate solutions by means of greedy search algorithms. The prior Sparse-LDA algorithm was a greedy algorithm that considered the best variable or feature to add/ delete to/ from its subsets in order to maximally discriminate between multiple classes of data. The present algorithm is designed for the special but prevalent case of 2-class or binary classification (e.g. 1 vs. 0, functioning vs. malfunctioning, or change versus no change). The present algorithm provides near-optimal solutions on large real-world datasets having hundreds or even thousands of variables or features (e.g. selecting the fewest wavelength bands in a hyperspectral sensor to do terrain classification) and does so in typical computation times of minutes as compared to days or weeks as taken by the prior art. Sparse LDA requires solving generalized eigenvalue problems for a large number of variable subsets (represented by the submatrices of the input within-class and between-class covariance matrices). In the general (fullrank) case, the amount of computation scales at least cubically with the number of variables and thus the size of the problems that can be solved is limited accordingly. However, in binary classification, the principal eigenvalues can be found using a special analytic formula, without resorting to costly iterative techniques. The present algorithm exploits this analytic form along with the inherent sequential nature of greedy search itself. Together this enables the use of highly-efficient partitioned-matrix-inverse techniques that result in large speedups of computation in both the forward-selection and backward-elimination stages of greedy algorithms in general.

Moghaddam, Baback↗

Water Temperature, Prey Concentration and Salmonid Density Influence Daily Growth of Wild Juvenile Salmonids in Tributaries of the Upper Salmon River, Idaho ( USA )

ABSTRACT Theory, experiments and field studies indicate that the somatic growth rate of freshwater consumers is shaped by the individual, additive and multiplicative effects of multiple factors, including consumer size and condition, temperature, prey resources and biotic interactions. While our understanding of how these factors affect wild populations of freshwater consumers is improving, the topic remains poorly studied, especially with respect to mobile species. Here, we report on an 8‐year, seven‐stream ( n = 49 stream‐year combinations) observational study examining the individual and interactive effects of invertebrate prey concentration (F, mg/m 3 ), mean daily water temperature (T, °C) and juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) density (D, fish/100 m 2 ) on summer daily growth rates (%/d) of mobile, anadromous, juvenile Chinook salmon (age‐0+, n = 382) and sub‐yearling (age‐0+, n = 61) and yearling (age‐1+) steelhead trout ( O. mykiss , n = 70) rearing in cold (mean daily summer: 12.1°C, range: 4.2°C–16.7°C) mountain tributaries of the Salmon River basin in central Idaho (USA). AIC c model selection indicated that daily juvenile salmonid growth positively correlated with water temperature, prey biomass concentration, local juvenile Chinook density and the interaction between water temperature and food but with species and age‐specific differences. Water temperature was a covariate in all top‐ranked models, with daily growth (%/day) rate increasing (0.05%–0.23%/d) linearly with mean daily summer water temperature. In addition to a direct positive relationship with daily growth rate, there was evidence that prey concentration positively interacted with water temperature to accelerate daily growth (F × T). The positive relationship between juvenile salmonid daily growth rate and juvenile Chinook density is difficult to explain and could result from confounding factors. The individual success observed in these streams may contribute to population‐level benefits for the focal consumers, as prey‐rich, warm summers may result in larger individuals with higher energy reserves at the end of the summer/autumn growing season, contributing to improved overwinter survival. Our results, taken in combination with evidence from models, experiments and observational studies, have climate change implications. Current and predicted increases in water temperature will necessitate higher rates of prey consumption by aquatic ectothermic consumers to offset accelerated metabolic demands. Thus, to improve the resilience of mobile freshwater consumers in a warming climate, we suggest that natural resource managers not only consider physical and chemical habitat conditions but also biotic conditions, including the spatiotemporal quantity and quality of prey resources.

Kiffney, Peter. M. [Fish Ecology, Northwest Fisher↗

An analysis of the processing requirements of a complex perceptual-motor task

Current concerns in the assessment of mental workload are discussed, and the event-related brain potential (ERP) is introduced as a promising mental-workload index. Subjects participated in a series of studies in which they were required to perform a target acquisition task while also covertly counting either auditory or visual probes. The effects of several task-difficulty manipulations on the P300 component of the ERP elicited by the counted stimulus probes were investigated. With sufficiently practiced subjects the amplitude of the P300 was found to decrease with increases in task difficulty. The second experiment also provided evidence that the P300 is selectively sensitive to task-relevant attributes. A third experiment demonstrated a convergence in the amplitude of the P300s elicited in the simple and difficult versions of the tracking task. The amplitude of the P300 was also found to covary with the measures of tracking performance. The results of the series of three experiments illustrate the sensitivity of the P300 to the processing requirements of a complex target acquisition task. The findings are discussed in terms of the multidimensional nature of processing resources.

Kramer, A. F.↗

Global coordinates with centimeter accuracy in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame using GPS

Using 21 days of GPS data from 21 globally distributed receivers operating during early 1991, a 7-parameter transformation between a GPS free-network solution and coordinates of 12 stations listed in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) is solved. Standard errors of GPS coordinates are derived by applying an orthogonal projection operator to the free-network covariance. The weighted rms difference between 33 transformed GPS and ITRF coordinates is 12 mm in the Northern Hemisphere. Best results are obtained by mapping ITRF coordinates to the epoch of this experiment assuming no vertical site motions. Fixing selected sites in the GPS solution to ITRF '90 does not improve the agreement. It is concluded that the use of fiducial constraints is unnecessary for global networks.

Blewitt, Geoffrey↗

Data Assimilation and Regional Forecasts Using Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses, which in turn should lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with an accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profiles--obtained from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm-into a regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background field type, a methodology for ingesting AIRS profiles as separate over-land and over-water retrievals with different error characteristics, and utilization of level-by-level quality indicators to select only the highest quality data. The assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles on WRF-Var analyses will focus on intelligent use of the quality indicators, optimized tuning of the WRF-Var, and comparison of analysis soundings to radiosondes. The analyses will be used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-tern1 impact of AIRS profiles on forecast will be assessed against verifying radiosonde and stage IV precipitation data.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

Data Assimilation and Regional Forecasts using Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses, which in turn should lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which, together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with an accuracy comparable to that of radionsondes. The purpose of this poster is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profiles, obtained from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm, into a regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF-Var. The poster focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background field type, a methodology for ingesting AIRS profiles as separate over-land and over-water retrievals with different error characteristics, and utilization of level-by-level quality indicators to select only the highest quality data. The assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles on WRF-Var analyses will focus on intelligent use of the quality indicators, optimized tuning of the WRF-Var, and comparison of analysis soundings to radiosondes. The analyses are used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-term impact of AIRS profiles on forecast will be assessed against NAM analyses and stage IV precipitation data.

Zabodsky, Brad↗

Efficient Method for Analyzing Hyperspectral Remote Sensing Data

The current and next generation satellite infrared sensors such as AIRS, IASI, CrIS, and CLARREO all have one thing in common: large number of spectral channels. In order to fully utilize the information content of these sensors, a large number of Radiative Transfer (RT) calculations through the inhomogeneous atmosphere are needed. It is also computationally intensive to invert atmospheric and surface properties using all the channels. Usually, only subsets of channels are used to perform physical inversions for atmospheric profiles. We will explore ways to speed up RT calculations and inversions and test the algorithms using data from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite instrument. We will describe a retrieval algorithm using a Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) for generating atmospheric temperature/moisture/ozone profiles and surface properties. The retrieval algorithm performs both the radiative transfer calculations and inversions in the Principal Component (PC) domain. The inversion algorithm is based on a non-linear Levenberg- Marquardt method with climatology covariance matrices and a priori information as constraints. One advantage of this approach is that it uses all information content from the ultraspectral data so that the retrieval is less sensitive to instrument noise and eliminates the need for selecting a sub-set of the channels. We will also use data collected during the Joint Airborne IASI Validation Experiment (JAIVEx) field campaign to validate the algorithm and IASI retrievals.

Liu, Xu↗

Hyperspectral Remote Sensing of Atmosphere and Surface Properties

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) are all hyper-spectral satellite sensors with thousands of spectral channels. Top of atmospheric radiance spectra measured by these sensors contain high information content on atmospheric, cloud, and surface properties. Exploring high information content contained in these high spectral resolution spectra is a challenging task due to computation e ort involved in modeling thousands of spectral channels. Usually, only very small fractions (4{10 percent) of the available channels are included in physical retrieval systems or numerical weather forecast (NWP) satellite data assimilations. We will describe a method of simultaneously retrieving atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface properties using all available spectral channels without sacrificing computational speed. The essence of the method is to convert channel radiance spectra into super-channels by an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) transformation. Because the EOFs are orthogonal to each other, about 100 super-channels are adequate to capture the information content of the radiance spectra. A Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) developed at NASA Langley Research Center is used to calculate both the super-channel magnitudes and derivatives with respect to atmospheric profiles and other properties. There is no need to perform EOF transformations to convert super channels back to spectral space at each iteration step for a one-dimensional variational retrieval or a NWP data assimilation system. The PCRTM forward model is also capable of calculating radiative contributions due to multiple-layer clouds. The multiple scattering effects of the clouds are efficiently parameterized. A physical retrieval algorithm then performs an inversion of atmospheric, cloud, and surface properties in super channel domain directly therefore both reducing the computational need and preserving the information content of the IASI measurements. The inversion algorithm is based on a non-linear Levenberg-Marquardt method with climatology covariance matrices and a priori information as constraints. One advantage of this approach is that it uses all information content from the hyper-spectral data so that the retrieval is less sensitive to instrument noise and eliminates the need for selecting a sub-set of the channels.

Liu, Xu↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-12839-DND

Hyper-spectral remote sensors, such as Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), provides top of atmospheric radiances with high information content on atmospheric and surface properties. In order to analyze these data in real time, fast, and accurate forward and inverse models are needed. We will describe a method of simultaneously retrieving atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface properties using all available spectral channels without sacrificing computational speed. The method has been successfully applied to AIRS, IASI, and NAST-I data. By applying the same method to the current and future hyperspectral sounders, the derived products will have less errors due to biases introduced by different retrieval methods. We have compared the retrieved products to radiosondes, aircraft measurements and other validation dataset. Simulations have done to quantify retrieval errors associated with the retrievals. The essence of the method is to convert channel radiance spectra into super-channels by an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) transformation. A Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) developed at NASA Langley Research Center is used to calculate both the super-channel magnitudes and derivatives with respect to atmospheric profiles and other properties. The inversion algorithm is based on a non-linear Levenberg-Marquardt method with climatology covariance matrices and a priori information as constraints. One advantage of this approach is that it uses all information content from the hyper-spectral data so that the retrieval is less sensitive to instrument noise and eliminates the need for selecting a subset of the channels. The PCRTM forward model has also been used to performance end-to-end sensor performance simulations of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO).

Xu Liu↗

JGI-Trichoderma v1.0

There is a series of Python and bash scripts to parse genomics datasets used to evaluate the coevolution of gene families and the feature importance of gene families using an SVM classifier. - Cover analysis: takes a list of single-copy genes in a set of genomes, aligns and builds the gene trees to determine if two gene families have a signature of covariation with one another. It parses the files to run phykit cover script described here: https://jlsteenwyk.com/PhyKIT/usage/index.html - SVM-classifier: This Python script is an SVM-based genomic classifier designed for biological data analysis. It combines machine learning with feature selection to identify important genomic markers and classify biological samples. Core Functionality: The script uses Support Vector Machines from scikit-learn to classify genomic data, incorporating SelectKBest for automated feature selection and leave-one-out cross-validation for performance assessment. It operates in multiple modes: feature ranking, optimal combination discovery, and sample prediction. Primary Applications: Genomic sample classification and biomarker discovery Feature importance analysis in high-dimensional biological datasets Prediction of sample categories based on genomic profiles Research applications requiring robust classification of biological data Key Advantages: High-dimensional handling: SVMs excel with genomic data's typical high feature-to-sample ratios Integrated feature selection: Reduces noise and computational overhead while identifying key markers Probability estimation: Provides confidence scores essential for biological interpretation Validation robustness: Leave-one-out cross-validation ensures reliable performance metrics Operational flexibility: Multiple analysis modes support different research phases from exploration to prediction

Stecca Steindorff, Andrei [Lawrence Berkeley Natio↗

Approach for Propagating Radiometric Data Uncertainties Through NASA Ocean Color Algorithms

Spectroradiometric satellite observations of the ocean are commonly referred to as “ocean color” remote sensing. NASA has continuously collected, processed, and distributed ocean color datasets since the launch of the Sea-viewing Wide-field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) in 1997. While numerous ocean color algorithms have been developed in the past two decades that derive geophysical data products from sensor-observed radiometry, few papers have clearly demonstrated how to estimate measurement uncertainty in derived data products. As the uptake of ocean color data products continues to grow with the launch of new and advanced sensors, it is critical that pixel-by-pixel data product uncertainties are estimated during routine data processing. Knowledge of uncertainties can be used when studying long-term climate records, or to assist in the development and performance appraisal of bio-optical algorithms. In this method paper we provide a comprehensive overview of how to formulate first-order first-moment (FOFM) calculus for propagating radiometric uncertainties through a selection of bio-optical models. We demonstrate FOFM uncertainty formulations for the following NASA ocean color data products: chlorophyll-a pigment concentration (Chl), the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm (K(sub d,490)), particulate organic carbon (POC), normalized fluorescent line height (nflh), and inherent optical properties (IOPs). Using a quality-controlled in situ hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance (R(sub rs,i)) dataset, we show how computationally inexpensive, yet algebraically complex, FOFM calculations may be evaluated for correctness using the more computationally expensive Monte Carlo approach. We compare bio-optical product uncertainties derived using our test R(sub rs) dataset assuming spectrally-flat, uncorrelated relative uncertainties of 1, 5, and 10%. We also consider spectrally dependent, uncorrelated relative uncertainties in R(sub rs). The importance of considering spectral covariances in R(sub rs), where practicable, in the FOFM methodology is highlighted with an example SeaWiFS image. We also present a brief case study of two POC algorithms to illustrate how FOFM formulations may be used to construct measurement uncertainty budgets for ecologically-relevant data products. Such knowledge, even if rudimentary, may provide useful information to end-users when selecting data products or when developing their own algorithms.

Bio-optics↗

Development of an open-source regional data assimilation system in PEcAn v. 1.7.2: application to carbon cycle reanalysis across the contiguous US using SIPNET

Abstract. The ability to monitor, understand, and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle requires the capacity to robustly and coherently synthesize multiple streams of information that each provide partial information about different pools and fluxes. In this study, we introduce a new terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system, built on the PEcAn model–data eco-informatics system, and its application for the development of a proof-of-concept carbon “reanalysis” product that harmonizes carbon pools (leaf, wood, soil) and fluxes (GPP, Ra, Rh, NEE) across the contiguous United States from 1986–2019. We first calibrated this system against plant trait and flux tower net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using a novel emulated hierarchical Bayesian approach. Next, we extended the Tobit–Wishart ensemble filter (TWEnF) state data assimilation (SDA) framework, a generalization of the common ensemble Kalman filter which accounts for censored data and provides a fully Bayesian estimate of model process error, to a regional-scale system with a calibrated localization. Combined with additional workflows for propagating parameter, initial condition, and driver uncertainty, this represents the most complete and robust uncertainty accounting available for terrestrial carbon models. Our initial reanalysis was run on an irregular grid of ∼ 500 points selected using a stratified sampling method to efficiently capture environmental heterogeneity. Remotely sensed observations of aboveground biomass (Landsat LandTrendr) and leaf area index (LAI) (MODIS MOD15) were sequentially assimilated into the SIPNET model. Reanalysis soil carbon, which was indirectly constrained based on modeled covariances, showed general agreement with SoilGrids, an independent soil carbon data product. Reanalysis NEE, which was constrained based on posterior ensemble weights, also showed good agreement with eddy flux tower NEE and reduced root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the calibrated forecast. Ultimately, PEcAn's new open-source regional data assimilation framework provides a scalable workflow for harmonizing multiple data constraints and providing a uniform synthetic platform for carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) as well as accelerating terrestrial carbon cycle research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Small Mercury Relativity Orbiter

The accuracy of solar system tests of gravitational theory could be very much improved by range and Doppler measurements to a Small Mercury Relativity Orbiter. A nearly circular orbit at roughly 2400 km altitude is assumed in order to minimize problems with orbit determination and thermal radiation from the surface. The spacecraft is spin-stabilized and has a 30 cm diameter de-spun antenna. With K-band and X-band ranging systems using a 50 MHz offset sidetone at K-band, a range accuracy of 3 cm appears to be realistically achievable. The estimated spacecraft mass is 50 kg. A consider-covariance analysis was performed to determine how well the Earth-Mercury distance as a function of time could be determined with such a Relativity Orbiter. The minimum data set is assumed to be 40 independent 8-hour arcs of tracking data at selected times during a two year period. The gravity field of Mercury up through degree and order 10 is solved for, along with the initial conditions for each arc and the Earth-Mercury distance at the center of each arc. The considered parameters include the gravity field parameters of degree 11 and 12 plus the tracking station coordinates, the tropospheric delay, and two parameters in a crude radiation pressure model. The conclusion is that the Earth-Mercury distance can be determined to 6 cm accuracy or better. From a modified worst-case analysis, this would lead to roughly 2 orders of magnitude improvement in the knowledge of the precession of perihelion, the relativistic time delay, and the possible change in the gravitational constant with time.

Bender, Peter L.↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: A 2.7% measurement of baryon acoustic oscillation distance scale at redshift 0.835

We present angular diameter measurements obtained by measuring the position of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in an optimized sample of galaxies from the first three years of Dark Energy Survey data (DES Y3). The sample consists of 7 million galaxies distributed over a footprint of 4100 deg 2 with 0.6 < z photo < 1.1 and a typical redshift uncertainty of 0.03 ( 1 + z ) . The sample selection is the same as in the BAO measurement with the first year of DES data, but the analysis presented here uses three times the area, extends to higher redshift, and makes a number of improvements, including a fully analytical BAO template, the use of covariances from both theory and simulations, and an extensive preunblinding protocol. We used two different statistics; angular correlation function and power spectrum, and validate our pipeline with an ensemble of over 1500 realistic simulations. Both statistics yield compatible results. We combine the likelihoods derived from angular correlations and spherical harmonics to constrain the ratio of comoving angular diameter distance D M at the effective redshift of our sample to the sound horizon scale at the drag epoch. We obtain D M ( z eff = 0.835 ) / r d = 18.92 ± 0.51 , which is consistent with, but smaller than, the Planck prediction assuming flat Λ CDM , at the level of 2.3 σ . The analysis was performed blind and is robust to changes in a number of analysis choices. It represents the most precise BAO distance measurement from imaging data to date, and is competitive with the latest transverse ones from spectroscopic samples at z > 0.75 . When combined with DES 3 x 2 pt + SNIa , they lead to improvements in H 0 and Ω m constraints by ∼ 20 % .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA GPM GV Science Requirements

An important scientific objective of the NASA portion of the GPM Mission is to generate quantitatively-based error characterization information along with the rainrate retrievals emanating from the GPM constellation of satellites. These data must serve four main purposes: (1) they must be of sufficient quality, uniformity, and timeliness to govern the observation weighting schemes used in the data assimilation modules of numerical weather prediction models; (2) they must extend over that portion of the globe accessible by the GPM core satellite to which the NASA GV program is focused - (approx.65 degree inclination); (3) they must have sufficient specificity to enable detection of physically-formulated microphysical and meteorological weaknesses in the standard physical level 2 rainrate algorithms to be used in the GPM Precipitation Processing System (PPS), i.e., algorithms which will have evolved from the TRMM standard physical level 2 algorithms; and (4) they must support the use of physical error modeling as a primary validation tool and as the eventual replacement of the conventional GV approach of statistically intercomparing surface rainrates fiom ground and satellite measurements. This approach to ground validation research represents a paradigm shift vis-&-vis the program developed for the TRMM mission, which conducted ground validation largely as a statistical intercomparison process between raingauge-derived or radar-derived rainrates and the TRMM satellite rainrate retrievals -- long after the original satellite retrievals were archived. This approach has been able to quantify averaged rainrate differences between the satellite algorithms and the ground instruments, but has not been able to explain causes of algorithm failures or produce error information directly compatible with the cost functions of data assimilation schemes. These schemes require periodic and near-realtime bias uncertainty (i.e., global space-time distributed conditional accuracy of the retrieved rainrates) and local error covariance structure (i.e., global space-time distributed error correlation information for the local 4-dimensional space-time domain -- or in simpler terms, the matrix form of precision error). This can only be accomplished by establishing a network of high quality-heavily instrumented supersites selectively distributed at a few oceanic, continental, and coastal sites. Economics and pragmatics dictate that the network must be made up of a relatively small number of sites (6-8) created through international cooperation. This presentation will address some of the details of the methodology behind the error characterization approach, some proposed solutions for expanding site-developed error properties to regional scales, a data processing and communications concept that would enable rapid implementation of algorithm improvement by the algorithm developers, and the likely available options for developing the supersite network.

Smith, E.↗