Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “cycle life prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of Interconnects

Combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) simultaneously combines stress factors of the natural environment (including UV radiation, temperature, humidity, electrical current, and external mechanical force) into a single test that requires fewer modules, fewer chambers, and makes it possible to discover weaknesses in new designs that are not known a-priori. C-AST reduces risk, accelerates time to market, and improves bankability by reducing costly overdesign using test levels not exceeding those seen in the natural environment. This project seeks to evaluate strengths and weaknesses of modern cell interconnect designs with combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) to screen multiple climates along with finite element and failure analysis to determine the potential for a 50-year life. Supporting this, we seek to develop methods of characterization to assess the degradation of interconnects, enable predictive rate models with material forensics and FEA and show C-AST's ability to find interconnect failures and benchmark it relative to other accelerated stress test methods like temperature cycling and cyclic dynamic mechanical loading. Examples of modern interconnect designs covered are Canadian Solar Hetero Technology ribbon enabling closer cell interconnections, SmartWire (eg. Meyer-Berger technology), and shingled cells with new interconnect materials.

C-AST↗
DOE OSTI2026

Biomanufacturing and Scale-Up: Pathways to Biochemicals, Biofuels, and Biomaterials

Advancing the bioeconomy requires the development of large-scale microbial bioprocesses capable of converting waste carbon streams into biofuels, biochemicals, and biomaterials at industrially relevant scales. While biomanufacturing has been successfully demonstrated at the laboratory scale for a wide range of chemicals, only a few have reached industrial-scale production. This is partly due to the inherent complexity of microbial systems, which rely on living cells with intricate metabolic pathways that are highly sensitive to environmental changes, making large-scale production difficult to optimize and predict. As a result, scaling-up bioprocesses remains a high-stakes challenge that requires deeper exploration. This involves integrating feedstock and microbial selection, upstream and downstream processes, and computational modelling, among other research efforts. Bulk and specialty chemicals derived from biological processes also face competition from fossil-based production routes, which have been refined through decades of technological advancements. While biologically derived molecules may offer more environmentally friendly production pathways than traditional chemical manufacturing, their widespread adoption depends on achieving cost parity-or superiority-relative to fossil-based methods. This emphasizes the importance of holistic research, including techno-economic analyses and life cycle assessments, to ensure both economic viability and environmental sustainability. This editorial and special issue explores state-of-the-art strategies for converting waste carbon sources into valuable products. It discusses how enzymes, single microbes (e.g., extremophiles), and microbiomes (e.g., through division of labor) can be integrated with upstream and downstream process innovations-such as consolidated bioprocessing and in situ product recovery-to improve the efficiency and scalability of biomanufacturing. The editorial further highlights the role of computational modelling in understanding, predicting, and controlling bioprocess performance across scales, and concludes by emphasizing the importance of techno-economic modelling to identify technologies that can move to market.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Antiferroelectric Ceramics for Energy–Efficient Capacitors by Theory–Guided Discovery

Antiferroelectric ceramics, via the electric-field-induced antiferroelectric (AFE)–ferroelectric (FE) phase transitions, show great promise for high-energy-density capacitors. Yet, currently, only 70–80% energy release is found during a charge–discharge cycle. Here, for PbZrO 3 -based oxides, geometric nonlinear theory of martensitic phase transitions is applied (first used to guide supercompatible shape-memory alloys) to predict the reversibility of the AFE–FE transition by using density-functional theory to assess AFE/FE interfacial lattice-mismatch strain that assures ultralow electric hysteresis and extended fatigue lifetime. A good correlation of mismatch strain with electric hysteresis, hence, with energy efficiency of AFE capacitors is observed. Here, guided by theory, high-throughput material search is conducted and AFE compositions with a near-perfect charge–discharge energy efficiency (98.2%), i.e., near-zero hysteresis are discovered. And the fatigue life of the capacitor reaches 79.5 million charge–discharge cycles, a factor of 80 enhancement over AFE ceramics with large electric hysteresis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gasification and Techno-Economic Analysis of High-Impact Biomass Feedstocks for the Synthesis of High-Octane Gasoline

Five economically advantaged biomass feedstocks identified in the US Department of Energy's 2016 Billion Ton Study were gasified and the syngas reformed at the bench scale to study the feedstock price-performance relationship. The distribution of reformed syngas compositions, heating values, and yields were similar across the different feedstocks and blends thereof, which ranged from inexpensive residual wastes to more expensive and higher quality biomass, revealing that feedstock performance was mostly insensitive to its price. Custom blended feedstocks produced syngas with characteristics resembling linear combinations of syngas from single-component feedstocks, supporting the ability to customize and predict blended properties based on single-feedstock data. A techno-economic analysis of specific feedstock costs for producing high-octane gasoline showed that miscanthus and forest residues were the most cost-effective with gas yields consistent with experimental gasification data. A field-to-wheels life-cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions showed that forest residues was the most environmentally benign feedstock of those studied.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Finally, findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

The inclusion of uncertainty in circularity transition modeling: A case study on wind turbine blade end-of-life management

The transition to a more circular economy (CE) is complex and hard to predict, including in sustainable energy technologies. Many sources of uncertainty make it challenging to model CE scenarios and their potential benefits. As an example, the high variability in costs and revenues of different recycling options makes future wind turbine blade recycling highly uncertain. To better understand this challenge, the circular economy, life cycle assessment and visualization (CELAVI) framework - a discrete event simulation and life cycle assessment framework - is modified to incorporate uncertainty analysis capabilities. Moreover, a 3-step procedure that covers different aspects of uncertainty in CE studies and includes a Monte-Carlo analysis is proposed. The procedure is tested in a case study on wind turbine blade recycling using CELAVI. Results highlight that grinding and landfilling costs are the most influential parameters for wind power circularity. The model's output coefficients of variation (when input parameter uncertainties are propagated) are between 92% and 384% depending on the indicator. The approach developed in this study may help researchers and decision-makers who study circularity prioritize their data collection effort. Finally, our method contributes to a mounting yet critical body of research: the measurement of uncertainty in circularity transitions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Life and death in the soil microbiome: how ecological processes influence biogeochemistry

We report soil microorganisms shape global element cycles in life and death. Living soil microorganisms are a major engine of terrestrial biogeochemistry, driving the turnover of soil organic matter — Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon pool and the primary source of plant nutrients. Their metabolic functions are influenced by ecological interactions with other soil microbial populations, soil fauna and plants, and the surrounding soil environment. Remnants of dead microbial cells serve as fuel for these biogeochemical engines because their chemical constituents persist as soil organic matter. This non-living microbial biomass accretes over time in soil, forming one of the largest pools of organic matter on the planet. In this Review, we discuss how the biogeochemical cycling of organic matter depends on both living and dead soil microorganisms, their functional traits, and their interactions with the soil matrix and other organisms. With recent omics advances, many of the traits that frame microbial population dynamics and their ecophysiological adaptations can be deciphered directly from assembled genomes or patterns of gene or protein expression. Thus, it is now possible to leverage a trait-based understanding of microbial life and death within improved biogeochemical models and to better predict ecosystem functioning under new climate regimes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational Predictions of the Stability of Fluorinated Calcium Aluminate and Borate Salts

Energy storage concepts based on multivalent ions, such as calcium, have great potential to become next-generation batteries due to their low cost and comparable cell voltage and energy density to Li-ion batteries. However, the development of Ca batteries is still hindered by the lack of suitable materials that grant a long cycle life. Specific to electrolyte materials, developing a calcium salt that is chemically stable under ambient conditions and enables reversible electrodeposition of Ca is critical. In this work, we use first-principles calculations to study the intrinsic and reductive stability of twelve Ca salts with fluorinated aluminate and borate anions and analyze the decomposition products formed on the metal anode surface that are critical to early-stage solid electrolyte interphase formation. Here we found anions with significant steric hindrance and a high degree of fluorination are intrinsically less stable and deemed unviable designs for Ca salt. Aluminate salts are generally less reactive with the Ca anode than their borate counterparts, and a high degree of fluorination leads to weaker reductive stability. Calcium fluoride is the most prominent decomposition product on the anode surface, and carbide-like motifs were also found from the decomposition of the designed salts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detecting technological maturity from bibliometric patterns

We report the capability to identify emergent technologies based upon easily accessed open-source indicators, such as publications, is important for decision-makers in industry and government. The scientific contribution of this work is the proposition of a machine learning approach to the detection of the maturity of emerging technologies based on publication counts. Time-series of publication counts have universal features that distinguish emerging and growing technologies. We train an artificial neural network classifier, a supervised machine learning algorithm, upon these features to predict the maturity (emergent vs. growth) of an arbitrary technology. With a training set comprised of 22 technologies we obtain a classification accuracy ranging from 58.3% to 100% with an average accuracy of 84.6% for six test technologies. To enhance classifier performance, we augmented the training corpus with synthetic time-series technology life cycle curves, formed by calculating weighted averages of curves in the original training set. Training the classifier on the synthetic data set resulted in improved accuracy, ranging from 83.3% to 100% with an average accuracy of 90.4% for the test technologies. The performance of our classifier exceeds that of competing machine learning approaches in the literature, which report an average classification accuracy of only 85.7% at maximum. Moreover, in contrast to current methods our approach does not require subject matter expertise to generate training labels, and it can be automated and scaled.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quasi‐dynamic breathing model of the lung incorporating viscoelasticity of the lung tissue

Abstract We advanced a novel model to calculate viscoelastic lung compliance and airflow resistance in presence of mucus, accounting for the quasi‐linear viscoelastic stress–strain response of the parenchyma (alveoli) tissue. We adapted a continuum‐based numerical modeling approach for the lung, integrating the fluid mechanics of the airflow within individual generations of the bronchi and alveoli. The model accounts for elasticity of the deformable bronchioles, resistance to airflow due to the presence of mucus within the bronchioles, and subsequent mucus flow. Simulated quasi‐dynamic inhalation and expiration cycles were used to characterize the net compliance and resistance of the lung, considering the rheology of the mucus and viscoelastic properties of the parenchyma tissue. The structure and material properties of the lung were identified to have an important contribution to the lung compliance and airflow resistance. The secondary objective of this work was to assess whether a higher frequency and smaller volume of harmonic air flow rate compared to a normal ventilator breathing cycle enhanced mucus outflow. Results predict, lower mucus viscosity and higher excitation frequency of breathing are favorable for the flow of mucus up the bronchi tree, towards the trachea.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Cloud Radiative Effects in the Propagating Southern Annular Mode

Abstract The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the most dominant natural mode of variability in the mid‐latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). However, both the sign and magnitude of the feedbacks from the diabatic processes, especially those associated with clouds, onto the SAM remain elusive. By applying the cloud locking technique to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model, this study isolates the positive feedback from the cloud radiative effect (CRE) to the SAM. Feedback analysis based on a wave activity‐zonal momentum interaction framework corroborates this weak but positive feedback. While the magnitude of the CRE feedback appears to be secondary compared to the feedbacks from the dry and other diabatic processes, the indirect CRE effects through the interaction with other dynamical and thermodynamical processes appear to play as important a role as the direct CRE in the life cycle of the SAM. The cross‐EOF analysis further reveals the obstructive effect of the interactive CRE on the propagation mode of the SH zonal wind directly through the CRE wave source and/or indirectly through modulating other diabatic processes. As a result, the propagation mode becomes more persistent and the SAM it represents becomes more predictable when the interactive CRE is disabled by cloud locking. Future efforts on inter‐model comparisons of CRE‐denial experiments are important to build consensus on the dynamical feedback of CRE.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven State of Health Estimation for Second-Life Batteries Using Interpolated Synthetic Data and Feature Selection

Accurate estimation of the State of Health (SOH) for second-life batteries (SLBs) is crucial given their increasing use in energy storage applications. Precise SOH prediction is essential for safe operation and robust battery management systems. A major challenge is the limited availability of datasets for building reliable degradation models. To address this, synthetic data generation through linear interpolation is performed to extend the available data, making it more representative of real-world battery operating conditions. By analyzing feature correlation with SOH, the most relevant features are selected for the model. The proposed approach employs a convolutional neural network (CNN) model trained on this interpolated, feature-selected dataset, using time series data of voltage, temperature, and current over a cycle. By focusing on highly correlated features, the model achieves over 95% accuracy, with mean absolute error and root mean squared error up to 2.27% and 2.64%, respectively, in SOH estimation for two battery datasets tested. These results highlight the potential of combining synthetic data generation and feature selection to enhance SOH predictions, showcasing the superior performance of the proposed CNN model for both new batteries and SLBs.

feature selection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fracture mechanics approach to TRISO fuel particle failure analysis

Weibull stress-based methods for failure probability assessment have been developed and analyzed to assess the integrity of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles during fuel life cycles and accident operating conditions. While simple, these methods entail a number of drawbacks when stress concentrates near crack tips, including finite element mesh size dependency when the Weibull stress is averaged over the finite element domain. Fracture mechanics approaches involving the use of interaction integrals eliminate this lack of mesh convergence and produce consistent fracture predictions. In this work, we use an interaction integral approach to computing stress intensity factors for a crack in the inner pyrolytic carbon layer perpendicular to the silicon carbide layer, which is simplified representation of a failure mode in TRISO particles. Further, the interface between these two TRISO layers has been shown to become porous, which we simulate by considering a transition of mechanical properties over such porous length, i.e. the layers are modeled as a functionally graded material. Aspects such as porosity and thermal and irradiation eigenstrains are considered in computing the stress intensity factor from a fracture mechanics approach and compared with the known Weibull stress failure approach. The methodology introduced in this paper enables a more general fracture probability assessment in TRISO particles and eliminates the need to identify best suited parameters when using local or averaged stress-based failure criterion. Finally, the numerical sensitivity studies show how parameters such as the porous transition zone length, the material stiffness, and creep affect the probability of TRISO fuel particle failure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of Digital Twin-Informed Predictive Maintenance for Critical Components in Advanced Reactors

Small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, along with other advanced reactor (AR) technologies, are key to the future of nuclear energy. For these systems to achieve low operating costs, high reliability, and flexibility across applications, their operation and maintenance must be optimized. Digital twin (DT) technology is one of the technologies that enables real-time (or faster than real-time) monitoring and prognosis of critical components which are vital for operational efficiency, low costs, and enhanced safety of ARs, accelerating their deployment. DT technology provides dynamic virtual representation of physical assets by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and advanced analytics, which is critical to optimizing the performance of the entire energy system throughout the life cycle. DTs empower engineers and operators to virtually explore different scenarios, configurations, and control strategies, allowing for the identification of optimal solutions that maximize reactor efficiency, safety, and economics.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-Net-Shape HIP Manufacturing for sCO2 Turbomachinery Cost Reduction

sCO2 turbomachinery that operates above 650°C requires the use of γ' strengthened Ni-based superalloys, leading to high cost and barrier of market adoption. Near-net-shape (NNS) HIP manufacturing with 282® alloy powder is being developed for sCO2 turbine components, with a significant estimated cost reduction. Tensile, creep, low cycle fatigue properties of argon gas atomized and plasma atomized powders were evaluated and compared to sand cast HAYNES® 282®. While tensile strength and fatigue life outperformed sand cast material, a 10~25% debit in the creep stress capability was observed due to the fine grain size and presence of prior particle boundaries (PPBs). Finite element model calibrated by powder rheological properties accurately predicted the nonuniform shrinkage during HIP, providing HIP tooling design to achieve the target dimension. A 20 lbs. turbine nozzle ring was successfully demonstrated within 0.01 inch dimensional tolerance at the vanes. A 1700lbs. turbine casing with complex internal struts and manifolds was also demonstrated being close to the target dimension.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A data-driven model for thermodynamic properties of a steam generator under cycling operation

The varying electricity demand from coal power plants due to the intermittent nature of renewable sources leads to load-follow and on/off operations referred to as cycling. Cycling causes transients of properties such as pressure and temperature within various components of the steam generation system.These transients cause increased damage because of fatigue and creep-fatigue interactions shortening the life of components. An algorithm is developed to identify cycling operations from the gross power data. The data-driven model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) is developed using 10 years data from Coal Creek Station power plant located in North Dakota, USA to estimate properties of the steam generator components during cycling operations. Furthermore, the uniqueness of this model is the ability to predict component properties for the cycling as well as base-load operations and is reported for the first time. The ANN model estimates the component properties, for a given gross power profile and initial conditions, as they vary during cycling operations. As a representative example, the ANN estimates are presented for the superheater outlet pressure, reheater inlet temperature, and flue gas temperature at the air heater inlet. The changes in these variables as a function of the gross power over the time duration are compared with measurements to assess the predictive capability of the model. Mean square errors of 4.49E-04 for superheater outlet pressure, 1.62E-03 for reheater inlet temperature, and 4.14E-04 for flue gas temperature at the air heater inlet were observed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulated effect of defect volume and location on very high cycle fatigue of laser beam powder bed fused AlSi10Mg

This study quantifies the interaction between volumetric defect location and size on the very high cycle fatigue (VHCF) of laser beam powder bed fused (LB-PBF) AlSi10Mg. Crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) simulations were used to investigate the effects of defect location and size on the driving force for crack initiation. The CPFEM model was calibrated against uniaxial and cyclic experimental data of LB-PBF AlSi10Mg. Defect characteristics were informed by experimental data from the specimens produced in various geometries to create realistic representative volume elements (RVEs) with equivalent volume fractions of defects. By embedding defects of varying sizes and locations within the RVEs, fatigue indicator parameters (FIPs) were calculated to analyze the impact of defects’ characteristics on fatigue performance. Different combinations of defect volume and locations were generated for various microstructure instantiations, providing insight into extreme value fatigue responses. Larger defect volumes located on free surfaces consistently generated the highest FIPs, suggesting defect size and boundary proximity intensify stress concentration effects. RVEs with multiple smaller defects produced lower FIPs than those with single large critical defects. These findings underscore the critical role of defect characteristics on fatigue life, providing a foundation for future predictive modeling in fatigue-sensitive AM applications.

AlSi10Mg↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-based Multiscale Additively Manufactured Superalloy Design for Optimized High Cycle Fatigue Life (Final Report)

The objectives of this project are to: (i) Gain fundamental understandings towards the microscopic damage mechanisms, as impacted by pertinent materials properties (e.g. stacking fault energy (SFE) and microstructure (e.g., grain size), leading to high-cycle fatigue (HCF) damage to AM Ni-based superalloy parts; (ii) Provide scientific insight into the effect of testing frequency on damage mechanisms and fatigue life of AM Ni-based superalloy parts under HCF regime, thereby establishing an appropriate correlation between accelerated testing and materials’ true service life; (iii) Devise an accurate, experimentally validated multiscale model across atomic, micro- and meso-scales, to predict the cyclic stress-strain responses and fatigue damage accumulation for AM Ni-based superalloys under various loading frequencies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗