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Continuous Risk Management at NASA

NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions. This risk management structure of functions has been taught to projects at all NASA Centers and is being successfully implemented on many projects. This presentation will give project managers the information they need to understand if risk management is to be effectively implemented on their projects at a cost they can afford.

Hammer, Theodore F.

Continuous Risk Management: A NASA Program Initiative

NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

Hammer, Theodore F.

Continuous Risk Management: An Overview

Software risk management is important because it helps avoid disasters, rework, and overkill, but more importantly because it stimulates win-win situations. The objectives of software risk management are to identify, address, and eliminate software risk items before they become threats to success or major sources of rework. In general, good project managers are also good managers of risk. It makes good business sense for all software development projects to incorporate risk management as part of project management. The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to implement risk management. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This is an introductory tutorial to continuous risk management based on this course. The rational for continuous risk management and how it is incorporated into project management are discussed. The risk management structure of six functions is discussed in sufficient depth for managers to understand what is involved in risk management and how it is implemented. These functions include: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

Rosenberg, Linda

Test Cases for a Rectangular Supercritical Wing Undergoing Pitching Oscillations

Steady and unsteady measured pressures for a Rectangular Supercritical Wing (RSW) undergoing pitching oscillations have been presented. From the several hundred compiled data points, 27 static and 36 pitching oscillation cases have been proposed for computational Test Cases to illustrate the trends with Mach number, reduced frequency, and angle of attack. The wing was designed to be a simple configuration for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) comparisons. The wing had an unswept rectangular planform plus a tip of revolution, a panel aspect ratio of 2.0, a twelve per cent thick supercritical airfoil section, and no twist. The model was tested over a wide range of Mach numbers, from 0.27 to 0.90, corresponding to low subsonic flows up to strong transonic flows. The higher Mach numbers are well beyond the design Mach number such as might be required for flutter verification beyond cruise conditions. The pitching oscillations covered a broad range of reduced frequencies. Some early calculations for this wing are given for lifting pressure as calculated from a linear lifting surface program and from a transonic small perturbation program. The unsteady results were given primarily for a mild transonic condition at M = 0.70. For these cases the agreement with the data was only fair, possibly resulting from the omission of viscous effects. Supercritical airfoil sections are known to be sensitive to viscous effects (for example, one case cited). Calculations using a higher level code with the full potential equations have been presented for one of the same cases, and with the Euler equations. The agreement around the leading edge was improved, but overall the agreement was not completely satisfactory. Typically for low-aspect-ratio rectangular wings, transonic shock waves on the wing tend to sweep forward from root to tip such that there are strong three-dimensional effects. It might also be noted that for most of the test, the model was tested with free transition, but a few points were taken with an added transition strip for comparison. Some unpublished results of a rigid wing of the same airfoil and planform that was tested on the pitch and plunge apparatus mount system (PAPA) showed effects of the lower surface transition Strip on flutter at the lower subsonic Mach numbers. Significant effects of a transition strip were also obtained on a wing with a thicker supercritical section on the PAPA mount system. Both of these flutter tests on the PAPA resulted in very low reduced frequencies that may be a factor in this influence of the transition strip. However, these results indicate that correlation studies for RSW may require some attention to the estimation of transition location to accurately treat viscous effects. In this report several Test Cases are selected to illustrate trends for a variety of different conditions with emphasis on transonic flow effects. An overview of the model and tests is given and the standard formulary for these data is listed. Sample data points are presented in both tabular and graphical form. A complete tabulation and plotting of all the Test Cases is given. Only the static pressures and the real and imaginary parts of the first harmonic of the unsteady pressures are available. All the data for the test are available in electronic file form. The Test Cases are also available as separate electronic files.

Bennett, Robert M.

Test Cases for a Clipped Delta Wing with Pitching and Trailing-Edge Control Surface Oscillations

Steady and unsteady measured pressures for a Clipped Delta Wing (CDW) undergoing pitching oscillations and trailing-edge control surface oscillations have been presented . From the several hundred compiled data points, 22 static cases, 12 pitching-oscillation cases, and 12 control-surface-oscillation cases have been proposed for Computational Test Cases to illustrate the trends with Mach number, reduced frequency, and angle of attack. The planform for this wing was derived by simplifying the planform of a proposed design for a supersonic transport which is described as the Boeing 2707-300. The strake was deleted, the resulting planform was approximated by a trapezoid with an unswept trailing edge, and the twist and camber were removed. In order to facilitate pressure instrumentation, the thickness was increased to 6 percent from the typical 2.5 to 3 percent for the supersonic transport. The airfoil is thus a symmetrical circular arc section with t/c = 0.06. A wing of similar planform but with a thinner airfoil of t/c = 0.03 was used in the flutter investigations, and the buffet and stall flutter investigation . Flutter results are also reported both for the 3 per cent thick simplified wing and for a more complex SST model. One of the consequences of the increased thickness of the clipped delta wing is that transonic effects are enhanced for Mach numbers near one. They are significantly stronger than would be the case for the thinner wing. Also, with the combination of high leading edge sweep of 50.5, and the sharp leading edge, a leading edge vortex forms on the wing at relatively low angles of attack, on the order of three degrees. The Appendix discusses some of the vortex flow effects. In addition, a shock develops over the aft portion of the wing at transonic speeds such that at some angles of attack, there is both a leading edge vortex and a shock wave on the wing. Such cases are a computational challenge. Some previous applications of this data set have been for the evaluation of an aerodynamic panel method and for evaluation of a Navier-Stokes capability. Linear theory and panel method results are also presented, which demonstrated the need for inclusion of transonic effects. Flutter calculations for the related wing with t/c=O.O3 are given. In this report several Test Cases are selected to illustrate trends for a variety of different conditions with emphasis on transonic flow effects. An overview of the model and tests are given, and the standard formulary for these data is listed. For each type of data, a sample table and a sample plot of the measured pressures are presented. A complete tabulation and plotting of the Test Cases is given. Only the static pressures and the 1st harmonic real and imaginary parts of the pressures are available. All of the data for the test are included in a microfiche document in the original report and are available in electronic file form. The Test Cases are also available as separate electronic files.

Bennett, Robert M.

Marine Life Study

As a result of widespread ocean dumping and other pollution problems, marine scientists at Morgan State University are studying the populations of various marine organisms to determine the effects of pollution. They are also compiling data on the aging of marine organisms. There now exists a new method of determining the age of the surf clam. They are applying digital image processing to clam aging investigations. Computer creates digitized images of clam sections with annual rings. The image is enhanced -- manipulated to emphasize certain features in order to improve and amplify the information that can be extracted from the image. Also useful in other marine organisms that have growth bands making it easier to get an accurate count.

Source record

Brightness Variations in the Central Star of Eta Carinae From 1998 to the Present

Recently, Eta Carinae has varied suprisingly in brightness combining a long term brightening trend with a 5.5-year cycle and unpredictable sporadic jumps. Only the Hubble Space Telescope had been able to provide reliable photometry of the central star resolved separately from its bright ejecta. We present data from the Hubble Space Telescope Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) and the Advanced Camera for Surveys High Resolution Camera (ACS/HRC) which chronicle the dramatic brightening of the central star of Eta Carinae from the 1998 "event" through 2000 and show that is has continued to slowly brighten. More frequent photometry during its recent "event" and a continued rise afterward. These data are compared to the more long term data compiled by the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) which also shows substantial brightening between events and other intervening fluctuations in the brightness of Eta Carinae at visual wavelengths.

Martin, J. C.

Preparation and Analysis of Platinum Thin Films for High Temperature Sensor Applications

A study has been made of platinum thin films for application as high temperature resistive sensors. To support NASA Glenn Research Center s high temperature thin film sensor effort, a magnetron sputtering system was installed recently in the GRC Microsystems Fabrication Clean Room Facility. Several samples of platinum films were prepared using various system parameters to establish run conditions. These films were characterized with the intended application of being used as resistive sensing elements, either for temperature or strain measurement. The resistances of several patterned sensors were monitored to document the effect of changes in parameters of deposition and annealing. The parameters were optimized for uniformity and intrinsic strain. The evaporation of platinum via oxidation during annealing over 900 C was documented, and a model for the process developed. The film adhesion was explored on films annealed to 1000 C with various bondcoats on fused quartz and alumina. From this compiled data, a list of optimal parameters and characteristics determined for patterned platinum thin films is given.

Wrbanek, John D.

Lunar Regolith Characterization for Simulant Design and Evaluation using Figure of Merit Algorithms

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), in conjunction with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and aided by personnel from the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science group at Johnson Space Center (ARES-JSC), is implementing a new data acquisition strategy to support the development and evaluation of lunar regolith simulants. The first analyses of lunar regolith samples by the simulant group were carried out in early 2008 on samples from Apollo 16 core 64001/64002. The results of these analyses are combined with data compiled from the literature to generate a reference composition and particle size distribution (PSD)) for lunar highlands regolith. In this paper we present the specifics of particle type composition and PSD for this reference composition. Furthermore. we use Figure-of-Merit (FoM) routines to measure the characteristics of a number of lunar regolith simulants against this reference composition. The lunar highlands regolith reference composition and the FoM results are presented to guide simulant producers and simulant users in their research and development processes.

Schrader, Christian M.

Space Environmental Effects on Materials and Processes

The Materials and Processes (M&P) Branch of the Structural Engineering Division at Johnson Space Center (JSC) seeks to uphold the production of dependable space hardware through materials research, which fits into NASA's purpose of advancing human exploration, use, and development of space. The Space Environmental Effects projects fully support these Agency goals. Two tasks were assigned to support M&P. Both assignments were to further the research of material behavior outside of Earth's atmosphere in order to determine which materials are most durable and safe to use in space for mitigating risks. One project, the Materials on International Space Station Experiments (MISSE) task, was to compile data from International Space Station (ISS) experiments to pinpoint beneficial space hardware. The other project was researching the effects on composite materials of exposure to high doses of radiation for a Lunar habitat project.

Sabbann, Leslie M.

Optimizing a Laser Process for Making Carbon Nanotubes

A systematic experimental study has been performed to determine the effects of each of the operating conditions in a double-pulse laser ablation process that is used to produce single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs). The comprehensive data compiled in this study have been analyzed to recommend conditions for optimizing the process and scaling up the process for mass production. The double-pulse laser ablation process for making SWCNTs was developed by Rice University researchers. Of all currently known nanotube-synthesizing processes (arc and chemical vapor deposition), this process yields the greatest proportion of SWCNTs in the product material. The aforementioned process conditions are important for optimizing the production of SWCNTs and scaling up production. Reports of previous research (mostly at Rice University) toward optimization of process conditions mention effects of oven temperature and briefly mention effects of flow conditions, but no systematic, comprehensive study of the effects of process conditions was done prior to the study described here. This was a parametric study, in which several production runs were carried out, changing one operating condition for each run. The study involved variation of a total of nine parameters: the sequence of the laser pulses, pulse-separation time, laser pulse energy density, buffer gas (helium or nitrogen instead of argon), oven temperature, pressure, flow speed, inner diameter of the flow tube, and flow-tube material.

Arepalli, Sivaram

Empirical Correlations for the Solubility of Pressurant Gases in Cryogenic Propellants

We have analyzed data published by others reporting the solubility of helium in liquid hydrogen, oxygen, and methane, and of nitrogen in liquid oxygen, to develop empirical correlations for the mole fraction of these pressurant gases in the liquid phase as a function of temperature and pressure. The data, compiled and provided by NIST, are from a variety of sources and covers a large range of liquid temperatures and pressures. The correlations were developed to yield accurate estimates of the mole fraction of the pressurant gas in the cryogenic liquid at temperature and pressures of interest to the propulsion community, yet the correlations developed are applicable over a much wider range. The mole fraction solubility of helium in all these liquids is less than 0.3% at the temperatures and pressures used in propulsion systems. When nitrogen is used as a pressurant for liquid oxygen, substantial contamination can result, though the diffusion into the liquid is slow.

Zimmerli, Gregory A.

Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992 - 2009

Published mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) lie between approximately +50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009, which span a range equivalent to 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar-altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (+28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. Although recent reports of large and accelerating rates of mass loss from GRACE=based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion. We find that the extrapolation used in the published IOM estimates for the 15 % of the periphery for which discharge velocities are not observed gives twice the rate of discharge per unit of associated ice-sheet area than the 85% faster-moving parts. Our calculations show that the published extrapolation overestimates the ice discharge by 282 Gt/yr compared to our assumption that the slower moving areas have 70% as much discharge per area as the faster moving parts. Also, published data on the time-series of discharge velocities and accumulation/precipitation do not support mass output increases or input decreases with time, respectively. Our modified IOM estimate, using the 70% discharge assumption and substituting input from a field-data compilation for input from an atmospheric model over 6% of area, gives a loss of only 13 Gt/year (versus 136 Gt/year) for the period around 2000. Two ERS-based estimates, our modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 to 2005 lie in a narrowed range of +27 to - 40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992-2001 is - 47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, + 16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall (+0.1 mm/year SLE), not including part of the Antarctic Peninsula (1.07 % of the AIS area)

Zwally, H. Jay

Overview and Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992-2009

Mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in more recent reports lie between approximately ?50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009. The 300 Gt/year range is approximately 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (?28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. We also modify the IOM estimate using (1) an alternate extrapolation to estimate the discharge from the non-observed 15% of the periphery, and (2) substitution of input from a field data compilation for input from an atmospheric model in 6% of area. The modified IOM estimate reduces the loss from 136 Gt/year to 13 Gt/year. Two ERS-based estimates, the modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 2005 lie in a narrowed range of ?27 to -40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992 2001 is -47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, ?16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall (?0.1 mm/year SLE), not including part of the Antarctic Peninsula (1.07% of the AIS area). Although recent reports of large and increasing rates of mass loss with time from GRACE-based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion

Zwally, H. Jay

Dynamic Server-Based KML Code Generator Method for Level-of-Detail Traversal of Geospatial Data

Web-based geospatial client applications such as Google Earth and NASA World Wind must listen to data requests, access appropriate stored data, and compile a data response to the requesting client application. This process occurs repeatedly to support multiple client requests and application instances. Newer Web-based geospatial clients also provide user-interactive functionality that is dependent on fast and efficient server responses. With massively large datasets, server-client interaction can become severely impeded because the server must determine the best way to assemble data to meet the client applications request. In client applications such as Google Earth, the user interactively wanders through the data using visually guided panning and zooming actions. With these actions, the client application is continually issuing data requests to the server without knowledge of the server s data structure or extraction/assembly paradigm. A method for efficiently controlling the networked access of a Web-based geospatial browser to server-based datasets in particular, massively sized datasets has been developed. The method specifically uses the Keyhole Markup Language (KML), an Open Geospatial Consortium (OGS) standard used by Google Earth and other KML-compliant geospatial client applications. The innovation is based on establishing a dynamic cascading KML strategy that is initiated by a KML launch file provided by a data server host to a Google Earth or similar KMLcompliant geospatial client application user. Upon execution, the launch KML code issues a request for image data covering an initial geographic region. The server responds with the requested data along with subsequent dynamically generated KML code that directs the client application to make follow-on requests for higher level of detail (LOD) imagery to replace the initial imagery as the user navigates into the dataset. The approach provides an efficient data traversal path and mechanism that can be flexibly established for any dataset regardless of size or other characteristics. The method yields significant improvements in userinteractive geospatial client and data server interaction and associated network bandwidth requirements. The innovation uses a C- or PHP-code-like grammar that provides a high degree of processing flexibility. A set of language lexer and parser elements is provided that offers a complete language grammar for writing and executing language directives. A script is wrapped and passed to the geospatial data server by a client application as a component of a standard KML-compliant statement. The approach provides an efficient means for a geospatial client application to request server preprocessing of data prior to client delivery. Data is structured in a quadtree format. As the user zooms into the dataset, geographic regions are subdivided into four child regions. Conversely, as the user zooms out, four child regions collapse into a single, lower-LOD region. The approach provides an efficient data traversal path and mechanism that can be flexibly established for any dataset regardless of size or other characteristics.

Baxes, Gregory

Origin of the Two Scales of Wind Ripples on Mars

Earth's sandy deserts host two main types of bedforms - decimeter-scale ripples and larger dunes. Years of orbital observations on Mars also confirmed the existence of two modes of active eolian bedforms - meter-scale ripples, and dunes. By analogy to terrestrial ripples, which are thought to form from a grain mechanism, it was hypothesized that large martian ripples also formed from grain impacts, but spaced further apart due to elongated saltation trajectories from the lower martian gravity and different atmospheric properties. However, the Curiosity rover recently documented the coexistence of three scales of bedforms in Gale crater. Because a grain impact mechanism cannot readily explain two distinct and coeval ripple modes in similar sand sizes, a new mechanism seems to be required to explain one of the scales of ripples. Small ripples are most similar to Earth's impact ripples, with straight crests and subdued profiles. In contrast, large martian ripples are sinuous and asymmetric, with lee slopes dominated by grain flows and grainfall deposits. Thus, large martian ripples resemble current ripples formed underwater on Earth, suggesting that they may form from a fluid-drag mechanism. To test this hypothesis, we develop a scaling relation to predict the spacing of fluid-drag ripples from an extensive flume data compilation. The size of large martian ripples is predicted by our scaling relation when adjusted for martian atmospheric properties. Specifically, we propose that the wavelength of martian wind-drag ripples arises from the high kinematic viscosity of the low-density atmosphere. Because fluid density controls drag-ripple size, our scaling relation can help constrain paleoatmospheric density from wind-drag ripple stratification.

Lapotre, Mathieu G. A.

An Overview of Surface Heat Microbial Reduction as a Viable Microbial Reduction Modality for Spacecraft Surfaces

In accordance with NASA Planetary Protection (PP) policy requirements, flight project hardware may be required to undergo microbial reduction processes to prevent the forward contamination of target planetary bodies with Earth organisms. Heat microbial reduction (HMR) is the most commonly employed modality used at JPL for reducing the microbial bioburden on flight hardware. In 2013, longstanding HMR specifications were abandoned, and revised specifications were developed which integrated the latest findings on bacterial spore heat resistivity. Revised decimal reduction values (D-values) for time-temperature lethality curves (110 °C to 200 °C) were developed to account for “hardy” bacterial spores that exhibit greater heat resistance than previously understood. Presented here is a comparative analysis of the revised NASA HMR specifications against empirical data compiled from recent JPL studies, and peer-reviewed, published literature. Bacillus sp. strain ATCC 29669 displayed high heat resistance, and this strain’s 4-log heat lethality curve was comparable to the revised 4-log specification. Spores of Bacillus atrophaeus ATCC 9372 displayed less heat resistance, and exhibited D-values which were less than the revised 3-log microbial reduction specifications. Extrapolations indicate that the current 6-log reduction credit applied to 350 °C for 1 hr. and 500 °C for 0.5 sec. is highly conservative. Projections indicate that a 10- to 18-log reduction of both hardy and non-hardy spores may be achievable at bakeouts of 350 °C for 1 hr. The findings reported here indicate the revised NASA HMR specifications from 110 °C to 200 °C are appropriate for achieving 4-log and 6-log reductions with hardy spore populations; however, for non-hardy spore populations, or for temperatures above 200 °C, the specifications are exceedingly conservative.

Shirey, Brian T.

Astrometric and Geodetic Properties of Earth and the Solar System

The mass, size and shape of planets and their satellites and are essential information from which one can consider the balance of gravity and tensile strength, chemical makeup and such factors as internal temperature or porosity. Orbits and planetary rotation are also useful clues concerning origin, internal structure and tidal history. Compiled data tables include some of the latest results.

astrometric