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At least 145 records · Page 8

Accelerated Materials Deployment in Advanced Nuclear Power Plants

The purpose of this report is to begin the development of a maximally efficient process for licensing and deploying new materials in Advanced Non-Light-Water Reactors (ANLWRs). Some new materials that are to be used in some new plants are seen as possibly introducing risks, because our understanding of those new materials’ behavior in the conditions generated by some novel plant designs is less complete than our understanding of the behavior of materials with long use histories in existing designs. In these cases, an approved code/standard or a code case to support the use of these materials in the novel design’s safety case may not exist for the regulator to utilize as part of the licensing determination. This circumstance creates the potential for an extremely long licensing process for new designs using new materials. The present strategy is to show how to manage these risks proactively, in such a way as to permit licensing decisions to be made in a timely manner, based on this risk management process. The present report outlines the gaps in the current codes to support deployment and use of novel materials and begins the development of the necessary risk management framework that is focused on the subject materials issues; it is based on risk-informed in-service surveillance practices, carried out in such a way as to compensate for current limitations in our state of knowledge. This development will enable licensing and deployment of the subject materials, conditional on the proactive surveillance process to be established. While this report is occasioned by limitations in our knowledge of certain materials issues that may arise in advanced designs, in-service surveillance is always done in order to compensate for a lack of knowledge: if we knew that components were not already failed and not trending toward failure, we would not perform surveillance, even in current-generation plants (except that prescriptive requirements would force us to do so). What is different about the surveillance program discussed here is that the issues are newer and the relevant experience base is less complete, so the surveillance presently contemplated may need to measure new things and/or measure them more often than has been traditional for surveillance coupons. The present report is devoted to the risk management framework and applies American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section XI, Division [1] to establish the structure of a protocol for carrying out the necessary surveillance. These documents are generic: they do not tell us how often to surveille, or what to surveille, or what to measure, but rather how to determine those things, given certain technical inputs. The Regulatory Development R&D Program [2] is currently developing the companion supporting technical basis for the materials surveillance technology that, when completed and validated, can be used by owner/operator and NRC to implement a materials degradation management program for ANLWRs. This report also outlines salient points of discussion, positive potential outcomes, and potential concerns from industry and the USNRC. These aspects of the report intend to inform future work to develop a proposed technical process for adoption by the industry and endorsement by the USNRC to allow developers to propose a risk informed and conservative approach for the use of materials where operating experience/data and codes and standards may not exist for use of a novel material in an operating reactor environment. Additionally, such a technology could be leveraged to potentially reduce part of the upfront materials data requirements from ongoing long-term materials testing so that early action on license application could be undertaken by NRC, in parallel with the continuation of long-term data collection. This could accelerate the schedule for a first-of-a-kind ANLWR deployment or a nth-of-a-kind new materials insertion for established ANLWR designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NARUC grid data sharing playbook

In 2022, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) launched an initiative to support its members in addressing issues related to grid data sharing. The Grid Data Sharing Collaborative was funded by the DOE’s Office of Electricity and Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER). NARUC invited programmatic, policy, technical, and cybersecurity subject matter experts from public utility commissions, utilities, non-governmental organizations, energy service companies, and DOE to join the two-year Grid Data Sharing Collaborative to help develop a flexible framework for states to use as a starting point when navigating complex decision-making inherent in grid data sharing. The framework took shape through a series of intensive workshops during which Collaborative participants explored illustrative use cases to identify data needs, articulate the benefits and risks of sharing such data, and assess the trade-offs. Along the way, participants offered suggestions for how the framework could be used in practice. The purpose of this playbook is to describe the elements of the Grid Data Sharing Framework and to begin supporting its implementation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

From TPL assessment to design optimization: Wave energy converter control co-design applied to the RM3

The Reference Model (RM) project developed six marine energy converter concepts using a sequential design methodology, which, while widely adopted in the industry, often overlooks interactions between system components, resulting in suboptimal designs. One such example is the Reference Model 3 (RM3), a two-body point absorber wave energy converter (WEC). An assessment using the Technology Performance Level (TPL) revealed that RM3’s low power-to-cost ratio, partly due to expensive steel construction, limits its techno-economic performance. Here, this study aims to redesign RM3 by reducing its scale and employing control co-design to integrate WEC and Power Take-Off (PTO) dynamics, constraints, and cost considerations within an optimization framework. We demonstrate the limitations of RM3’s current PTO design and explore the benefits of scaling down to enhance techno-economic viability by lowering material costs. Using WecOptTool, we conduct a parameter sweep over gear ratios and spring stiffnesses for various Commercial Off-The-Shelf generators in irregular wave conditions. Our findings emphasize the importance of aligning PTO components with WEC dynamics, showing that control co-design and strategic scaling can improve RM3’s power-to-cost ratio. This study presents a transferable example of applied control co-design for other WECs, supporting early-stage developers in their design decisions.

Off the shelf components↗

FACETS Dynamical Downscaling Simulations over North America by the CAM-MPAS Variable-Resolution Model

Comprehensive assessment of climate datasets created by statistical or dynamical models is important for effectively communicating model projection and associated uncertainty to stakeholders and decision-makers. The Department of Energy FACETS project aims to foster such communication through development of metrics and their demonstration on a hierarchy of downscaled climate datasets to quantify aspects of climate change projections that are credible, particularly for supporting decisions related to the energy-water-land nexus. As a part of this effort, we have produced a regional climate dataset using the Model for Prediction Across Scales coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-MPAS). This global modeling framework is configured with variable-resolution meshes featuring higher resolutions over North America, as well as quasi-uniform resolution meshes across the globe. The variable-resolution configurations allow fine-scale features to be better resolved inside the refinement and interact with global-scale circulations. The dataset includes multiple uniform- (240km and 120km) and variable-resolution (200-50km, 100-25km, and 46-12km) simulations that are designed to be compatible with other regional climate simulations that contribute to the hierarchy of downscaled climate datasets of the project. Furthermore, the dataset consists of simulations for both the present-day (1989-2010) and future (2079-2100) climate and post-processing of the model output has been coordinated across the project for consistency to facilitate common analysis across the hierarchy of datasets. Altogether, this CAM-MPAS model dataset provides a unique opportunity to assess the influence of resolutions and modeling framework on model credibility and climate change projection.

Sakaguchi, Koichi↗

Winds of fortune? Understanding the geographic, sociodemographic, and temporal distribution of benefit mechanisms from land-based wind projects in the United States

Despite decades of research on factors shaping local responses to wind development, there is relatively little known about benefit mechanisms (e.g., agreements, funds, donations) used by developers in the U.S. land-based wind sector. To address this gap, we collected benefit mechanism data across all current utility-scale land-based wind projects installed between 1982 and 2024 (n = 1047), finding that just under one-third of projects had a benefit mechanism attached to them. We find the use of benefit mechanisms has become more common over time, is associated with larger projects, and varies by region. In terms of host community characteristics, the use of benefit mechanisms is associated with characteristics like higher education level, higher percent white, higher percent Republican, higher decision-making capacity, lower unemployment rate, and higher poverty rate. Building on a theoretical framework of purposes, we discuss what these findings could suggest about the motivations driving developers' use of these mechanisms, such as increasing local acceptance of a wind project or supporting distributive fairness. This first-of-its-kind study builds a comprehensive understanding of how benefit mechanisms have been used in the U.S. wind industry throughout its history, which can inform future approaches to benefit-sharing across sectors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

U.S. Department of Energy: National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (Technical Report)

With funding from the CARES Act, the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) established the National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (NVBL) in March 2020 to address key challenges associated with the COVID-19 crisis. The NVBL brought together the broad scientific and technical expertise and resources of DOE’s 17 national laboratories to help tackle medical supply shortages, discover potential drugs to fight the virus, develop and validate COVID-19 testing methods, model disease spread and impact across the nation, and understand virus transport in buildings and the environment. National laboratory resources leveraged for this effort include a suite of world-leading user facilities broadly available to the research community, such as light and neutron sources, nanoscale science research centers, sequencing and biocharacterization facilities, and high-performance computing facilities. As part of the NVBL framework, DOE rapidly assembled five project teams to (1) identify new targets for medical therapeutics; (2) develop innovations in testing capabilities; (3) provide epidemiological and logistical support; (4) understand viral fate and transport in the environment; and (5) address supply chain bottlenecks by harnessing extensive additive manufacturing capabilities. Each research team was charged with defining high-impact projects that could be completed in a 6-month sprint while coordinating their developments with academia, other government agencies, and the private sector. Within months, NVBL teams used DOE’s high-performance computers and light and neutron sources to identify promising candidates for antibodies and antivirals that universities and drug companies are now evaluating. NVBL researchers also developed new diagnostic targets and sample collection approaches, and supported efforts by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and U.S. Department of Defense to establish national guidelines used in administering millions of tests. Researchers used artificial intelligence and high-performance computing to produce near-real-time data analysis to forecast disease transmission, stress on public health infrastructure, and economic impact, which supported decision-makers at the local, state, and national levels. To minimize virus uptake and protect human health, NVBL teams studied how to control indoor virus movement. Researchers also produced innovations in materials and advanced manufacturing that mitigated shortages in test kits and personal protective equipment, creating nearly 1,000 new jobs. Through its NVBL framework, DOE has contributed significantly to the nation’s COVID response, demonstrating in only a few months the critical impact of its national laboratories. NVBL’s accomplishments demonstrate not only the powerful resource represented by DOE’s national laboratories working together to meet national needs, but also the effectiveness of the integrated NVBL framework for rapidly responding to emergencies with research and development solutions. Going forward, the NVBL is poised to apply the unique capabilities and expertise of the national laboratory complex to future national and international emergencies, both natural and engineered. Through this framework, DOE will continue to be an integral component of agency-wide efforts to prepare for and respond to biorisks and other crises. This technical report describes the goals, progress, and results of NVBL’s five project teams—Molecular Design for COVID-19 Therapeutics, COVID-19 Testing, Epidemiological Modeling, Viral Fate and Transport, and Materials and Manufacturing of Critical Supplies—and lists each team’s publications and research output.

42 ENGINEERING↗

City Decision Analysis Resources and Tools

The City Decision Analysis at Any Scale Workshop was held February 17-18, 2021. This brochure was created to provide participants with a collection of tools and resources that support planning and implementation of clean energy goals for communities and businesses.

ACES↗

Navigating Exascale Operational Data Analytics: From Inundation to Insight

In this paper, we address the challenges in achieving sustainable data-driven efficiency by providing a detailed exploration of the end-to-end operational data analytics (ODA) framework that evolved through two generations of supercomputer systems at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). This framework addresses large data streams ingested from heavily instrumented HPC environment that accumulates multi-terabytes per day. We outline the multifaceted data life cycle across HPC procurement, operations, and research & development, identifying key obstacles and design decisions that shape effective strategies in building and supporting data pipelines end-to-end. By sharing key insights and lessons learned from our experience, we offer recommendations for the HPC community on enabling sustainable operational data analytics and beyond. Our contributions aim to bridge the gap between potential and real benefits of operational data, guiding future efforts towards integrated and sustainable operational intelligence in high-performance computing environments.

Shin, Woong↗

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Evaluating long-term model-based scenarios of the energy system

Energy-economic models are used to provide science-based decision support in a variety of contexts. Analyses using these tools often involve defining a “reference” scenario, which serves as a counterfactual against which alternative scenarios are compared. Evaluating scenarios, including reference scenarios, is critical for establishing the credibility of the analyses these models support. We propose a framework for evaluating energy system scenarios which consists of three parts – a qualitative storyline, quantitative metrics, and evaluation criteria. We apply this framework to the reference scenario for GCAM-USA, a version of the global human-Earth system model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) with state-level detail in the United States, focusing on the evolution of the electric power sector. We develop new visual analytic tools to facilitate the evaluation of model outcomes in 51 sub-national regions, and demonstrate how scenario performance can be tracked and compared across four quantifications of the GCAM-USA reference scenario.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗

A Tool to Incorporate Non-Energy Impacts in Energy Efficiency Investment Decision Making for Firms

Energy efficiency is a key demand-side strategy for sustainability, recently identified by the United States Department of Energy as a pillar of industrial decarbonization. The increased focus on decarbonization and the requirement for efficiency to enable electrification, another decarbonization pillar, due to the spark spread between natural gas and electricity prices, make energy efficiency increasingly relevant. Still, industries face challenges in adopting energy efficiency measures. Researchers have long found a gap in adoption of even those measures with a profitable net present value, attributed to lack of strategic value among other barriers (see for rigorous exploration and taxonomy). One solution to facilitate energy efficiency projects is the inclusion of non-energy impacts, as this has been shown to double potential deployment of such projects at system level. Energy efficiency can provide valuable benefits outside of simple operating cost reductions, from decreased pollution to enhanced productivity. The inclusion of these benefits in decision making assessments faces hurdles due to inconsistency of ancillary benefits across projects, difficulties in quantifying impacts and the need for additional measurement to quantify them. The decision-making tools to support this have been designed primarily for the European context. We begin with a stakeholder engagement process to better characterize the U.S. decision making process surrounding adoption of energy efficiency investments. Characterization of non-energy impacts has developed substantially over recent decades. Cagno et al. provided a framework for studying the applicability of these impacts to energy efficiency projects, listing 120 key performance indicators focused mainly on reductions of costs/harms. Other researchers have included impacts on the strategic and revenue side that can be merged into this framework as well. We seek a tractable set of impacts that can be included in a decision-making tool in the US, and as such are well suited to US industry, management and decision making processes. We also seek to understand how to best quantify or characterize these impacts. This work will demonstrate the results of a survey conducted among US manufacturing industry decision makers to assess the decision making landscape of stakeholders as well as the most relevant performance indicators for energy efficiency projects.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

Framework for optimization of long-term, multi-period investment planning of integrated urban energy systems

In order to achieve stringent greenhouse gas emission reductions, a transition of our entire energy system from fossil to renewable resources needs to be designed. Such an energy transition brings two main challenges: most renewables generate variable electric energy, yet most demand is currently not electric (carrier mismatch) and does not always manifest at the same time as supply (temporal mismatch). Integrating multiple energy infrastructures can address both challenges by using the synergy between different energy carriers; building on existing infrastructure, while allowing a robust and flexible integration of the new. This paper proposes an optimization framework for long-term, multi-period investment planning of urban energy systems in an integrated manner. We formulate it as a mixed-integer linear program, combining a capacitated facility location with a multi-dimensional, capacitated network design problem. It includes generation and network expansion planning as well as interconnections between networks and storage infrastructure for each energy system. It can incorporate pathway effects like techno-economic developments, policy measures, and weather variations. The intended use is to support urban decision makers with long-term investment planning, though it can be tailored to fit other geographical or temporal scales. We demonstrate the model using two cases based on an average city in The Netherlands, which wants to reduce its CO 2 -emissions with 95% by 2050. In the first case, we include explicit carbon-emission constraints to study the effects of the carrier mismatch. In the second case, we implement interannual weather variations to analyze the temporal mismatch. The results give valuable insights into the energy transition design strategy for urban decision makers. They also show the future potential, as well as the computational challenges of the optimization framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Post-2026 Environmental Impact Statement Rate Analysis for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a principal power-generating asset within the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP), accounting for approximately 70–80% of CRSP power production over the past two decades. In June 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) issued a Notice of Intent to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) outlining operational guidelines and strategies for Colorado River Basin reservoirs after 2026 (Reclamation, 2023). Power generation is among CRSP’s statutory purposes under the Colorado River Storage Project Act of 1956 (U.S. Congress, 1956). Assessing how alternative policy frameworks affect CRSP power production and the resulting electricity rates for U.S. customers is therefore essential to inform decision-making. This report evaluates projected electricity rates and the market value of electricity from the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) CRSP GCD under multiple post-2026 policy scenarios to support Reclamation’s EIS development. Results from advanced econometric and machine learning models indicate that the Enhanced Coordination alternative (EnhanCoor), Maximum Operational Flexibility alternative (CCA), and Supply Driven - 55 alternative (SD55) alternatives yield more favorable hydropower generation and capacity outcomes, which are objectives outlined in Reclamation’s documentations (Reclamation, 2007; Reclamation, 2016). Specifically, these scenarios are associated with higher electricity production, lower projected rate trajectories, and greater economic value to the U.S. power system from CRSP generation. The remaining five scenarios generally produce lower generation, higher rate trajectories, and reduced long-term market values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Developing a Framework for Valuation of Grid Services

The electric system is rapidly evolving and growing, raising new questions about how to define and value grid services delivered by a diverse set of resources, including customer-owned assets. This report advances a service–parameter–value framework that links what a grid service does to why it matters, and how its benefits are evidenced. We build upon prior efforts (Bender et al. 2021) and extend them to include value categories (reliability, resilience, cost & access, and security) with primary and secondary tiers, service-specific value streams that explain how benefits materialize, and metrics that make valuation traceable and comparable. We apply the framework to the six core grid services defined in (Kolln et al. 2023): Frequency Response, Regulation, Reserves, Energy, Voltage Management, and Blackstart and demonstrate it on three use cases to highlight the adaptability of these value streams. Further, we outline how the framework integrates with existing tools such as asset optimization, hosting capacity and cost-benefit analysis, and propose a path to portable qualifications and consistent stacking rules for use in tariffs and filings. Finally, we identify future pathways for research and application research needs to support standardization and decision-ready comparisons across services, assets, and architectures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Technology for Predictive Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can help simplify complex problems, such as diagnosing equipment degradation, to enable more effective decision-making. Benefits will be felt not only within existing analog and digital instrumentation and control, but also work processes, the integration of people with technology, and most importantly, the business case. Together, these hold promise to make nuclear power more efficient and reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance. While the artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies hold significant promise in the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. This report outlines the those different machine learning adoption barriers (categorized as historical, technical, economic, regulatory, and user) that the industry must overcome to realize the full benefits of artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for long-term economic sustainability. This report also provides solutions for some of these barriers by focusing on improving the explainability of machine learning to encourage trust from the end-user. Trust and explainability are essential to machine learning adoption. This report focuses on research-developed solutions to some of these barriers while analyzing a non-safety-related system, namely the circulating water system. This system frequently experiences waterbox fouling which our models preemptively diagnoses then explains to the operator how those conclusions were reached. This report presents and discusses the inherent trade-off between machine learning performance (in terms of accuracy) and explainability, where highly accurate machine learning methods (such as deep-learning) are the least explainable, and the most explainable methods (such as decision trees) are the least accurate. In addition, explainability of artificial intelligence techniques in terms of transparency and post-hoc metrics are discussed. This report outlines the importance of data novelty and value of new information in evaluating both the explainability and trustworthiness. Novelty detection helps to establish consistency or inconsistency of the new data with respect to the training data. On the other hand, value of information could be a part of the user-centric visualization recommendation system that request additional information to be collected, thereby strengthening the machine learning outcomes. During this project, a copyrighted user-centric visualization that aligns with a human-in-the-loop approach was developed. The user-centric visualization presents different levels of information and can be tailored as per user credentials to gain user confidence. One of the salient features of the user-centric visualization is it presents machine learning methods with explainability metrics. A simplified version of the user-centric visualization was presented to 32 users with varying levels of machine learning expertise. Feedback was solicited to test the hypothesis that the app contained sufficient explainability and that the users would trust the algorithm. Overall, the app was positively received, and the hypothesis was supported. This report discusses the trust-but-verify framework – a potential approach to build user trust artificial intelligence. The framework discusses trust from the human level to artificial intelligence level. The fundamental premise of the trust but verify framework is derived from an observation of nuclear safety culture (i.e., nuclear power plant personnel do not rely on a singular source of data to make a decision). This also ties back to the user-centric visualization that presents different levels of information to achieve both explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence. Even so, the adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in the nuclear industry faces additional barriers, namely regulatory and stakeholder readiness. To overcome these challenges, new solutions must gain regulatory approval and cater to stakeholder needs. The Nuclear Regulatory Committee has a 5-year strategic plan which prepares them for reviewing artificial intelligence technologies in licensee submissions. Early and frequent engagement with the regulator is encouraged. Additionally, artificial intelligence solutions should incorporate human-in-the-loop considerations and offer explainability. Stakeholders must prepare by hiring or training staff to adapt to advancing technology in everyday plant tasks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Towards Net Zero: Modeling Approach to the Right-Sized Facilities

As the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere increases, the concerns about carbon emissions are growing. Several net-zero initiatives are taking place around the globe to achieve a balance between the GHGs put into the atmosphere and those taken out. While most efforts present a sectorized approach, this paper describes the importance of integrating information across different sectors for effective modeling of carbon emissions and holistic reduction opportunity analysis. Using the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) campus as a test case, this work provides a web-based tool for INL stakeholders to use when engaging in strategic planning to achieve carbon emissions reduction. This net-zero engineering support tool (NEST) uses historical data as foundational information for applying the modeling framework. Prediction of CO 2 emissions throughout project completion integrates various approaches and schedules aimed at energy conservation, fleet decarbonization, and other GHG reduction activities. Using NEST, stakeholders can visualize carbon emissions, electricity consumption, and costs for decision making when planning the pathway for reaching carbon net zero. The INL’s initiative to transition into an EV fleet was used to demonstrate the developed framework and the advantages of using NEST. It was shown that electrifying different fossil-fueled campus vehicles before 2030 with aggressive replacement schedules require high annual capital expenditure (CAPEX), which may not be available. The tool allows decision makers to test different replacement schedules and prioritize those that yield CAPEX below a certain threshold while meeting target milestones. While the demonstration focused on vehicle electrification, the developed framework lays the foundation for further quantitative analysis of other GHG reduction activities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗