SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “decision-making under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices

Climate model simulations are an important source of information about our planet’s climate system and also enable informed decision-making under different future scenarios. As a new archive of results from the next generation of climate models is anticipated to become available with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), the need to develop efficient and robust methods to evaluate models is paramount. Observations are an integral part of model evaluation, providing a means to quantify and understand the degree to which climate models can faithfully reproduce Earth system processes. Such analysis is critical for constraining climate projections, identifying areas of focus for model development, and assisting analysts in deciphering the utility of models for specific applications. Observations of Earth system come from a diversity of sources, span different space–time domains, and are produced by different communities, and each dataset features different data structures and formats, metadata standards, and its own unique uncertainties. Uncertainties in an observational dataset may stem from gaps in temporal and spatial coverage, instrumentation errors, or assumptions in retrieval and processing methods. How then does one ensure that observational data are ready for use and utilized in the most appropriate way for robust, rapid, and routine climate model evaluation? The CMIP7 Model Benchmarking Task Team with input from the broader climate modeling, model evaluation, and observational data communities present a vision and considerations for best practices toward the optimal and appropriate use of observational data to support next-generation climate model evaluation.

Climate models↗

DOE OSTI2024

Jet classification using high-level features from anatomy of top jets

Recent advancements in deep learning models have significantly enhanced jet classification performance by analyzing low-level features (LLFs). However, this approach often leads to less interpretable models, emphasizing the need to understand the decision-making process and to identify the high-level features (HLFs) crucial for explaining jet classification. To address this, we consider the top jet tagging problems and introduce an analysis model (AM) that analyzes selected HLFs designed to capture important features of top jets. Our AM mainly consists of the following three modules: a relation network analyzing two-point energy correlations, mathematical morphology and Minkowski functionals for generalizing jet constituent multiplicities, and a recursive neural network analyzing subjet constituent multiplicity to enhance sensitivity to subjet color charges. We demonstrate that our AM achieves performance comparable to the Particle Transformer (ParT) while requiring fewer computational resources in a comparison of top jet tagging using jets simulated at the hadronic calorimeter angular resolution scale. Furthermore, as a more constrained architecture than ParT, the AM exhibits smaller training uncertainties because of the bias-variance tradeoff. We also compare the information content of AM and ParT by decorrelating the features already learned by AM. Lastly, we briefly comment on the results of AM with finer angular resolution inputs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel Deep Learning Transformer Model for Short to Sub‐Seasonal Streamflow Forecast

Accurate short-to-subseasonal streamflow forecasts are becoming crucial for effective water management in an increasingly variable climate. However, streamflow forecast remains challenging over extended lead times, uncertainty in meteorological inputs, and increased frequency and variability in extreme weather and climate events. We implemented a Future Time Series Transformer (FutureTST) model for streamflow forecasting that separately integrates past meteorological and streamflow data while incorporating future weather conditions. FutureTST achieves a mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.82 to 0.67 for 1- to 30-day streamflow forecasts. Incorporating upstream streamflow information improved forecast accuracy by up to 10%. During real-time forecast, FutureTST maintains higher forecast skills of 9.03 for 1-day and 5.74 for 14-day forecasts. In contrast, calibrated process-based hydrological model forecasts become unreliable beyond a 4-day lead time. Our findings demonstrate the potential of FutureTST as a reliable streamflow forecasting tool that offers a valuable addition to operational flood monitoring systems and climate-resilient decision-making.

Ambika, Anukesh Krishnankutty [Oak Ridge National ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental DNA as a tool for hydropower impact assessments: current status, special considerations, and future integration

Globally there is an urgent need to find sustainable solutions to balance energy production with the protection of vulnerable species and conservation of biodiversity. This is particularly critical for freshwater ecosystems, habitats, and species that may be impacted by hydropower development and operations needed to meet energy grid demands. Reliable and accurate environmental impact assessments (EIAs) that identify the biological, physical, or social impacts of hydropower are key to ensure biodiversity, ecosystem, and societal sustainability. The analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) has the potential to transform hydropower EIAs, management and mitigation planning, and decision-making procedures. Further, the incorporation of eDNA surveys into EIAs during both hydropower planning and continued operations may streamline regulatory processes by improving our understanding of potentially impacted biota and habitats and evaluating environmental impacts mitigation. Here, we: (i) highlight current understanding and use of eDNA in freshwater environments; (ii) examine critical considerations for eDNA integration into hydropower EIAs and biological monitoring; (iii) identify knowledge gaps in eDNA analysis and applications unique to hydropower-regulated systems; and (iv) discuss future opportunities to bolster the incorporation of eDNA into hydropower research including regulatory acceptance and public engagement. While we acknowledge that there are several factors that may complicate the broad adoption of eDNA as a tool for assessing the impacts of hydropower, we anticipate that growing confidence in eDNA through hydropower-specific protocols, calibrations, and validations will overcome these inherent uncertainties.

aquatic biodiversity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Next generation Arctic vegetation maps: Aboveground plant biomass and woody dominance mapped at 30 m resolution across the tundra biome

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, placing tundra ecosystems at the forefront of global climate change. Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to changes in climate, closely tied to ecological function, and crucial for constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics. However, the amount, functional composition, and distribution of plant biomass are only coarsely quantified across the Arctic. Therefore, we developed the first moderate resolution (30 m) maps of live aboveground plant biomass (g m −2 ) and woody plant dominance (%) for the Arctic tundra biome, including the mountainous Oro Arctic. We modeled biomass for the year 2020 using a new synthesis dataset of field biomass harvest measurements, Landsat satellite seasonal synthetic composites, ancillary geospatial data, and machine learning models. Additionally, we quantified pixel-wise uncertainty in biomass predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and validated the models using a robust, spatially blocked and nested cross-validation procedure. Observed plant and woody plant biomass values ranged from 0 to ∼6000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 350 g m −2 ), while predicted values ranged from 0 to ∼4000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 275 g m −2 ), resulting in model validation root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) ≈ 400 g m −2 and R 2 ≈ 0.6. Our maps not only capture large-scale patterns of plant biomass and woody plant dominance across the Arctic that are linked to climatic variation (e.g., thawing degree days), but also illustrate how fine-scale patterns are shaped by local surface hydrology, topography, and past disturbance. By providing data on plant biomass across Arctic tundra ecosystems at the highest resolution to date, our maps can significantly advance research and inform decision-making on topics ranging from Arctic vegetation monitoring and wildlife conservation to carbon accounting and land surface modeling.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗

DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A biomass map of the Brazilian Amazon from multisource remote sensing

The Amazon Forest, the largest contiguous tropical forest in the world, stores a significant fraction of the carbon on land. Changes in climate and land use affect total carbon stocks, making it critical to continuously update and revise the best estimates for the region, particularly considering changes in forest dynamics. Forest inventory data cover only a tiny fraction of the Amazon region, and the coverage is not sufficient to ensure reliable data interpolation and validation. This paper presents a new forest above-ground biomass map for the Brazilian Amazon and the associated uncertainty both with a resolution of 250 meters and baseline for the satellite dataset the year of 2016 (i.e., the year of the satellite observation). A significant increase in data availability from forest inventories and remote sensing has enabled progress towards high-resolution biomass estimates. This work uses the largest airborne LiDAR database ever collected in the Amazon, mapping 360,000 km 2 through transects distributed in all vegetation categories in the region. The map uses airborne laser scanning (ALS) data calibrated by field forest inventories that are extrapolated to the region using a machine learning approach with inputs from Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), vegetation indices obtained from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, and precipitation information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). A total of 174 field inventories geolocated using a Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) were used to validate the biomass estimations. The experimental design allowed for a comprehensive representation of several vegetation types, producing an above-ground biomass map varying from a maximum value of 518 Mg ha -1 , a mean of 174 Mg ha -1 , and a standard deviation of 102 Mg ha -1 . This unique dataset enabled a better representation of the regional distribution of the forest biomass and structure, providing further studies and critical information for decision-making concerning forest conservation, planning, carbon emissions estimate, and mechanisms for supporting carbon emissions reductions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic model and failure mechanisms of steam generators in Sodium-Cooled fast reactors

This paper presents a prognostic model for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) steam generators (SGs). Here, the purpose of the model is to estimate the remaining useful life of SFR SGs and thus to support the decision-making of autonomous control. SFR SGs are of great interest for plant integrity due to their harsh operation environment. They operate at higher temperatures and higher coolant-to-steam pressure differences than those of current light water reactors (LWR). The severity of the SFR SG failure consequences, which include water-sodium contact, is another reason. Understanding its failure mechanisms is important for the development of its prognostic model. Based on our literature review and physics-based analysis, we concluded that creep would be a dominant degradation mode of SFR SGs due to SFR’s high-temperature and high-pressure environment. Thus, creep is the focus of the prognostic model. Various other failure modes were also investigated in this study. The mechanical fatigue due to flow-induced vibration is usually observed in early developmental phases and would not be an important issue during normal operation. The thermal fatigue due to thermal stripping is occasionally observed in other components in SFRs but does not affect SG integrity. Pure water stress corrosive crack, fretting, and so on are commonly observed in LWR SGs but are significantly less important in SFR SGs because of the high temperatures, high pressure differences, and chemical properties of liquid sodium. Based on these investigations, a prognostic model focusing on creep failures was developed. It estimates the failure probability profile by sampling the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) and temperature and associated uncertainties through Monte Carlo methods. Two case studies were presented. The first one demonstrated the model’s capability to calculate the failure probability for a new specimen within a given time. If the tube is working under temperatures of 500C ± 3 and pressures of 15.2 MPa, which leads to LMP of 20,100 ± 50, the failure probabilities within 50, 70, and 90 years are approximately 0.1 %, 3.2 %, and 17.5 %. The second demonstrated how adjusting the workload can help to protect the integrity of the component. For an old tube reaching 99 % of its lifespan, continuing to run at temperatures of 500C ± 3 and LMP of 20,100 ± 50 leads to a failure probability of about 29.0 % within a year. If the temperature is reduced by 5C, the failure probability can be reduced to 2.5 %, and, if the pressure is also reduced such that the LMP is increased by 100, the failure probability can further be reduced to 0.12 %.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System Under Deep Climate Uncertainty

Climate change threatens the resource adequacy of future power systems. Existing research and practice lack frameworks for identifying decarbonization pathways that are robust to climate-related uncertainty. We create such an analytical framework, then use it to assess the robustness of alternative pathways to achieving 60% emissions reductions from 2022 levels by 2040 for the Western U.S. power system. Our framework integrates power system planning and resource adequacy models with 100 climate realizations from a large climate ensemble. Climate realizations drive electricity demand; thermal plant availability; and wind, solar, and hydropower generation. Among five initial decarbonization pathways, all exhibit modest to significant resource adequacy failures under climate realizations in 2040, but certain pathways experience significantly less resource adequacy failures at little additional cost relative to other pathways. By identifying and planning for an extreme climate realization that drives the largest resource adequacy failures across our pathways, we produce a new decarbonization pathway that has no resource adequacy failures under any climate realizations. This new pathway is roughly 5% more expensive than other pathways due to greater capacity investment, and shifts investment from wind to solar and natural gas generators. Our analysis suggests modest increases in investment costs can add significant robustness against climate change in decarbonizing power systems. Our framework can help power system planners adapt to climate change by stress testing future plans to potential climate realizations, and offers a unique bridge between energy system and climate modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrating science for water security governance

Hydrological extremes are intensifying globally, increasing the complexity of decisions required to ensure water security. Advances in hydrological science, modeling, and data systems have expanded the technical frontier of water research, yet uptake of scientific insights in policy and management decisions remains limited. This persistent science–policy gap is not primarily a failure of knowledge generation or robustness, but an institutional challenge shaped by how scientific and governance systems are organized, coordinated, and connected to support the effective use of scientific knowledge. These challenges are particularly pronounced in multi-level and transboundary water governance, where decisions span jurisdictions and require coordination across institutional and political boundaries. We synthesize research at the science–policy interface and evidence from water security initiatives to show how institutional arrangements, scientific tool development, and research practices enable or constrain the sustained use of scientific knowledge in water-security governance processes. Building on these insights, we develop ‘shared decision infrastructure’ as a framing to describe how scientific knowledge is embedded within the institutional, relational, and procedural arrangements that connect science to decision-making processes over time. We translate this framing into a practical intervention roadmap centered on institutional design, tool translation, sustained co-production, and outcome-oriented evaluation to support the integration of science into ongoing governance processes. By positioning science as shared decision infrastructure, the roadmap clarifies how researchers can design scientific efforts that support more coordinated, accountable, and adaptive water security decisions amid deepening uncertainty.

M whitney, Kristen [NASA Goddard Space Flight Cent↗

DOE OSTI2026

American cities in a time of global environmental change: the case of the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative

The Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC) Urban Integrated Field Laboratory seeks a new paradigm for urban climate research. Motivated by deep uncertainties in urban climate and the future of urban systems, BSEC works collaboratively across institutions and stakeholder groups to co-generate the science needed to advance energy security and resilience to extreme events across the city of Baltimore, Maryland, USA, and to do so in a manner that can inform similar efforts in other cities. BSEC begins with stakeholder priorities (health, affordable energy, etc) and designs observation networks and models to deliver climate science to address them. This takes the form of an iterative collaborative cycle, in which an initial research strategy is repeatedly updated in conversation with community partners, and researchers and stakeholders learn from each other. To date, this cycle has included multiple rounds of collaborative deliberation on urban heat mitigation, in which a multicriteria decision tool has been updated with more community-relevant spatial structure and modified optimization metrics. The guiding objective of this cycle is to inform potential ‘secure and resilient pathways’ for energy and infrastructure. In doing so, BSEC addresses fundamental urban science questions in natural and social sciences. It also tests our ability to integrate this science in a manner that advances participatory decision-making for urban resilience.

climate↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extreme-scale stochastic optimization and simulation via learning-enhanced decomposition and parallelization (Final Technical Report)

Stochastic optimization and simulation models ubiquitously arise in designing and operating complex service/engineering systems. They can be extreme in scale due to high-dimensional data and decisions, and can also involve decisions made sequentially in response to newly revealed data, both causing significant computational challenge. The objective of this research is to explore a unified framework that integrates machine learning with discrete optimization and risk-averse modeling, to improve the efficiency of decomposition paradigms for stochastic optimization and simulations at extreme scale. The models we consider represent a broad class of complex decision-making problems, where 0-1 or continuous decisions are made before and/or after knowing multiple sources of uncertainties that could be correlated. We will employ machine learning methods to dynamically decide and prioritize computational procedures, including cut generation, branching, and bounding of the optimal objective. Furthermore, the research will shed new lights on the traditional decomposition algorithms for extreme-scale computing. Deliverables of the research include new modeling and computational methods for advancing the state-of-the-art research in optimization and simulation, bringing many relevant risk-averse, data-driven optimization problems in practice within the range of tractability. Examples include distributed computing server scheduling and sensor deployment for monitoring critical infrastructures. Success in this effort will enable progress in solving multiple extreme-scale problems in the complex system design and operations arising from DoE missions in energy, environment, and national security.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Operator Workflows for Real-Time Reliability Studies: A Review of Control Room Practices and Naturalistic Decision Making

This report provides an overview of real-time reliability study tools and their use by power system operators in the control room environment. After introducing some of the nuances of the control room environment and the differences in perspectives between power system engineers and operators, the roles and responsibilities of key entities involved in RTCA workflows are introduced. These are specifically the transmission system operator (TOP) and reliability coordinator (RC), which are required to run tools such as real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) as part of a real-time reliability assessment every 30 minutes, as dictated by a series of standards issued by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The process by which power systems operators operate the grid is discussed in terms of naturalistic decision making (NDM) and the recognition-primed decision-making (RPD) model. This cognitive model describe how experts working in high-risk, high-stress environments make safety-critical decisions under uncertainty and time pressure. For power system operators, the mental simulations involved in the traditional RPD model are supplemented by physics-based simulations using numerical tools, such as RTCA, to improve situational awareness and effectiveness of control actions. Next, a generic workflow is introduced to describe operator decision making for running RTCA tools and responding to system violations on a pre-contingent basis. The types of analysis performed and control actions chosen by power system operators are described in detail. The overall high-level workflow is then expanded in subsequent sections, with special attention given to high-voltage violations, low-voltage violations, and thermal overloads. Each type of violation is described in detail, with explanations of common causes, impacts on equipment and customers, and mitigation strategies. An additional workflow diagram is provided for each type of violation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Circularity Futures Workshop Series: Summary Report

The aim of this report is to synthesize key feedback received from the three-part Circularity Futures workshop series held in Spring 2024. The workshop series was conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of U.S. Department of Energy, Office Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), and was broken into three workshops: Workshop 1 - Circularity Analysis Needs and Priorities; Workshop 2 - Circularity Metrics and Indicators; and Workshop 3 - Circularity Data. Together, the workshops focused on identifying the existing priorities and gaps in the circularity modeling space, understanding different stakeholders' use and interpretation of circularity metrics and indicators, identifying common data gaps and data quality challenges, and assessing the robustness of available solutions. The workshop series brought a diverse group of stakeholders - including representatives from U.S. government offices, national labs, nonprofit organizations, industry, and academia - to collect first-hand feedback on needs, priorities, challenges and opportunities in the circularity modeling and analysis space. The workshop discussions highlighted numerous common needs, priorities and challenges among the interviewed groups. Several topics were frequently discussed, including: 1) Circularity as a pathway for sustainable economic growth: While circularity is generally defined in terms of resource conservation and reducing wasteful disposal of materials, participants agreed that circular strategies should serve broader economic, environmental, and social goals. It is therefore crucial for circularity analysis to look beyond waste reduction and instead evaluate a variety of impact metrics such as cost savings, job creation, air quality, and pollutant emissions. Mutli-criteria decision-making frameworks may be useful for making sense of disparate metrics and evaluating tradeoffs between impact categories.; 2) Economic and social factors are not well understood: Underdevelopment of existing end-of-life (EOL) management infrastructure, inconsistent standardization codes and policy space in reusing recycled content, and suboptimal collection and sorting strategies collectively contribute to uncertainty about the economic potential of circular pathways. The latter observation is consistent among all technologies but more emphasized for renewable energy systems. Social impacts of circularity practices are less understood and less researched than other sustainability aspects.; 3) Inconsistent methods for assessing emerging technologies: LCA and TEA results vary widely depending on the assumptions made with regards to market adoption of new technologies. Emerging technologies suffer limited availability of data needed to conduct a robust circularity analysis. Yet, understanding projected impacts of proposed nascent technology is a key need for different stakeholder groups.; and 4) Lack of temporally and geospatially explicit data: There is a need for open data that represents variations in circularity technologies over time and location. The lack thereof leads to aggregated and potentially misrepresented results in circularity analysis. Sensitivity analyses should be included to verify whether options perceived as more sustainable align with real-world practices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Testing Recommendations for Thermal Failure Analysis

Minimizing ranges of uncertainty in failure QOIs is vital for making informed engineering decisions. To improve our decision-making ability, it is necessary to have a QOI representation that captures more complex failure modes. Capturing the physics of complex time-dependent temperature failure in explicit detail can be computationally and experimentally expensive. To avoid this blooming of complication and costs, an empirical QOI component-level failure/damage model may be sufficient to help identify component-level failure. In this context, failure and damage are abstractions of more complicated processes that lead to the cessation of normal operating behavior, not a representation of mechanical damage, such as void formation. Such a model requires minimal increases in computational cost and experimental burden. The proposed QOI serves as an indicator that something has likely failed, similar to the previous critical failure temperatures or pressures. This QOI will not replace any existing failure QOIs. It will be calculated alongside them, allowing for preservation of legacy style QOI measurements with new context from the new QOI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗