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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Probabilistic Data Association for Orbital-Element Estimation Using Multistage Expectation–Maximization

Tracking space objects is important for managing space traffic and predicting collisions, but is difficult in part due to data association and orbit model uncertainty. Expectation–maximization (EM) is a commonly used tracking method that has not been widely considered for tracking space objects. The technique consists of iteratively computing data association probabilities with a set of current element estimates, and updating estimates of the elements by solving a nonlinear weighted least-squares regression problem where the weights are the data association probabilities. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of EM for probabilistic data association and orbital-element estimation by applying the technique to simulated data from two angles-only tracking scenarios. In both scenarios, EM provides correct data associations and accurate maximum likelihood estimates of orbital elements. One scenario considers tracking a single object in clutter and quantifies the improvement of the orbital-element estimates and data associations as the detection probability increases. However, standard application of EM requires knowing the number of objects or may fail when a large number of objects are present. To address these issues, this paper employs a multistage version of EM that is applicable when there are a large and possibly unknown number of objects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Present and future potential of krypton-85 for the detection of clandestine reprocessing plants for treaty verification

Burnup calculations are applied to determine the amount of krypton-85 that is produced during the irradiation of nuclear fuel. Since krypton-85 is most likely released into the atmosphere during reprocessing to separate plutonium, atmospheric transport modeling is used to calculate the worldwide distribution of krypton-85 concentrations stemming from emissions from declared reprocessing plants. Our results are the basis for scenarios in which emissions from clandestine reprocessing facilities have to be detected against various background levels. We conclude that today’s background imposes heavily on the ability to detect small and medium plutonium separation rates; only high separation rates of 1 SQ per week and higher have a chance to be detected with feasible outlay. A fixed network of monitoring stations seems too costly; instead the high number of samples that are required rather calls for mobile sampling procedures, where air samples are collected at random locations over the world and are analyzed in regional laboratories for their krypton-85 concentration. Furthermore, it is argued that krypton-85 emissions from declared reprocessing activities have to be significantly lowered to enable a worldwide verification of the absence of even smaller clandestine reprocessing. For each scenario the number of samples that have to be taken for probable detection is calculated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Possible radio emission from Uranus at 0.5 MHz

Radio emission from the direction of Uranus has been detected in data from the Goddard radio astronomy experiment on the IMP-6 spacecraft. Previously, emission from the direction of Jupiter and Saturn had been observed by IMP-6 at a number of frequencies near 1 MHz and were identified through an analysis of the phase of the observed modulated signal detected from the spinning dipole antenna. This technique was applied to the direction of Uranus with possible positive results. Over the approximately 500 days of data, three to six bursts with unique spectral characteristics have been found. The events persisted less than 3 minutes and are strongest in intensity near 0.5 MHz. Identification with Uranus is confused by the likely presence of low-level terrestrial and solar emission. Because of the unfavorable angular separation of earth and Uranus, there is a possibility that the bursts are atypical terrestrial magnetospheric phenomena, although the uniqueness of the set of events indicates the probable detection of radiation from Uranus.

Brown, L. W.↗

An XMM-Newton Observation of the Lagoon Nebula and the Very Young Open Cluster NGC 6530

We report the results of an XMM-Newton observation of the Lagoon Nebula (M 8). Our EPIC images of this region reveal a cluster of point sources, most of which have optical counterparts inside the very young open cluster NGC 6530. The bulk of these X-ray sources are probably associated with low and intermediate mass pre-main sequence stars. One of the sources experiences a flare-like increase of its X-ray flux making it the second brightest source in M 8 after the O4 star 9 Sgr. The X-ray spectra of most of the brightest sources can be fitted with thermal plasma models with temperatures of kT approximately a few keV. Only a few of the X-ray selected PMS candidates are known to display H(alpha) emission and were previously classified as classical T Tauri stars. This suggests that most of the X-ray emitting PMS stars in NGC 6530 are weak line T Tauri stars. In addition to 9 Sgr, our EPIC field of view contains also a few early-type stars. The X-ray emission from HD 164816 is found to be typical for an O9.5III-IV star. At least one of the known Herbig Be stars in NGC 6530 (LkH(alpha) 115) exhibits a relatively strong X-ray emission, while most of the main sequence stars of spectral type B1 and later are not detected. We also detect (probably) diffuse X-ray emission from the Hourglass Region that might reveal a hot bubble blown by the stellar wind of Herschel 36, the ionizing star of the Hourglass Region.

Rauw, G.↗

All-sky search for short gravitational-wave bursts in the second Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo run

Here, we present the results of a search for short-duration gravitational-wave transients in the data from the second observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. We search for gravitational-wave transients with a duration of milliseconds to approximately one second in the 32-4096 Hz frequency band with minimal assumptions about the signal properties, thus targeting a wide variety of sources. We also perform a matched-filter search for gravitational-wave transients from cosmic string cusps for which the waveform is well-modeled. The unmodeled search detected gravitational waves from several binary black hole mergers which have been identified by previous analyses. No other significant events have been found by either the unmodeled search or the cosmic string search. We thus present search sensitivity for a variety of signal waveforms and report upper limits on the source rate-density as function of the characteristic frequency of the signal. These upper limits are a factor of three lower than the first observing run, with a $50\%$ detection probability for gravitational-wave emissions with energies of $\sim10^{-9}M_\odot c^2$ at 153 Hz. For the search dedicated to cosmic string cusps we consider several loop distribution models, and present updated constraints from the same search done in the first observing run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dual-Phase Malicious User Detection Scheme for IM-OFDMA Systems Using IQ Imbalance

Physical-layer security techniques have contributed to the achievement of various security objectives in an efficient and lightweight manner. Thus, these techniques have been widely considered for limited-resource networks such as Internet of Things networks. Among the different security objectives, malicious user detection by exploiting physical-layer parameters has demonstrated efficient performance. In this work, malicious user detection in the recently proposed index modulation-based orthogonal frequency division multiple access (IM-OFDMA) is addressed. The proposed malicious user detection scheme exploits the hardware impairments, especially the in-phase and quadrature imbalance parameters, for both legitimate and malicious users to design a dual-phase efficient detection scheme. The proposed scheme accounts for the special characteristics of IM-OFDMA transmission that are different from other multiple-access techniques. The performance of the proposed scheme was evaluated considering detection probability and false alarm probability performance metrics. Moreover, closed-form expressions of these metrics were derived for both phases and were validated by Monte Carlo simulation results under different configurations of IM-OFDMA systems.

Alaca, Ozgur [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000153713758)↗

A small long-life acoustic transmitter for studying the behavior of aquatic animals

The lack of stronger acoustic signal, longer service life and smaller size from off-the-shelf transmitters has precluded intensive research for environmental monitoring of certain species using acoustic telemetry techniques. In this study we developed a small long-life acoustic transmitter with the length of approximately 24.2 mm, the diameter of approximately 5.0 mm, and the dry weight of approximately 0.72 g. The new transmitter can generate an acoustic signal at selectable source level between 159 and 163 dB re 1 µPa at 1 m. The new acoustic transmitter has an operation lifetime up to a year or longer at a pulse rate interval of 15 seconds, and also has a signal detection range up to at least 500 meters that enhances detection probability in a quiet environment. Furthermore, the new technology makes long-term acoustic telemetry studies of small fish possible and is being deployed for long-term tracking of juvenile sturgeon.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Key Ne 19 States Identified Affecting γ -Ray Emission from F 18 in Novae

Detection of nuclear-decay γ rays provides a sensitive thermometer of nova nucleosynthesis. The most intense γ-ray flux is thought to be annihilation radiation from the β + decay of 18 F, which is destroyed prior to decay by the 18 F(p,α) 15 O reaction. Estimates of 18 F production had been uncertain, however, because key near-threshold levels in the compound nucleus, 19 Ne, had yet to be identified. We report the first measurement of the 19 F( 3 He, tγ ) 19 Ne reaction, in which the placement of two long-sought 3/2 + levels is suggested via triton-γ–γ coincidences. Furthermore, the precise determination of their resonance energies reduces the upper limit of the rate by a factor of 1.5–17 at nova temperatures and reduces the average uncertainty on the nova detection probability by a factor of 2.1.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bulk Handling Facility Modeling and Simulation for Safeguards Analysis

The Separation and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM) uses MATLAB/Simulink to provide a tool for safeguards analysis of bulk handling nuclear processing facilities. Models of aqueous and electrochemical reprocessing, enrichment, fuel fabrication, and molten salt reactor facilities have been developed to date. These models are used for designing the overall safeguards system, examining new safeguards approaches, virtually testing new measurement instrumentation, and analyzing diversion scenarios. The key metrics generated by the models include overall measurement uncertainty and detection probability for various material diversion or facility misuse scenarios. Safeguards modeling allows for rapid and cost-effective analysis for Safeguards by Design. The models are currently being used to explore alternative safeguards approaches, including more reliance on process monitoring data to reduce the need for destructive analysis that adds considerable burden to international safeguards. Machine learning techniques are being applied, but these techniques need large amounts of data for training and testing the algorithms. The SSPM can provide that training data. This paper will describe the SSPM and its use for applying both traditional nuclear material accountancy and newer machine learning options.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

IAEA Sampling Plan

The objectives for this presentation are to describe the method that the IAEA uses to determine a sampling plan for nuclear material measurements; describe the terms detection probability and significant quantity; list the three nuclear materials measurement types; describe the sampling method applied to an item facility; and describe multiple method sampling.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Assessment of Physical Security Modeling and Simulation in the Vulnerability Assessment Process

This report provides a comprehensive assessment of physical security modeling and simulation tools available for use in the vulnerability assessment (VA) process for nuclear facilities. It outlines the historical evolution of VA methodologies, emphasizing the transition from traditional layer-based approaches to a more holistic framework that integrates detection probabilities directly into combat simulations. The document details the critical components of the VA process, including the characterization of targets, threats, and protective measures, as well as the development of adversary scenarios that reflect both insider and outsider threats. It highlights the importance of performance assurance programs, emphasizing the need for continuous evaluation and testing of security systems to ensure their effectiveness against evolving threats. Additionally, the report discusses the significance of utilizing accredited modeling and simulation tools in accredited areas to accurately represent adversary actions and the corresponding responses of protective forces. By establishing a systematic approach to VA, this document aims to enhance the overall security posture of nuclear facilities, ensuring compliance with regulatory standards while effectively mitigating risks associated with potential adversarial actions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Search for Supernova Neutrinos and Constraint on the Galactic Star Formation Rate with the KamLAND Data

We present the results of a search for core-collapse supernova neutrinos, using long-term KamLAND data from 2002 March 9 to 2020 April 25. We focus on the electron antineutrinos emitted from supernovae in the energy range of 1.8–111 MeV. Supernovae will make a neutrino event cluster with the duration of ~10 s in the KamLAND data. We find no neutrino clusters and give the upper limit on the supernova rate to be 0.15 yr –1 with a 90% confidence level. The detectable range, which corresponds to a >95% detection probability, is 40–59 kpc and 65–81 kpc for core-collapse supernovae and failed core-collapse supernovae, respectively. This paper proposes to convert the supernova rate obtained by the neutrino observation to the Galactic star formation rate. Assuming a modified Salpeter-type initial mass function, the upper limit on the Galactic star formation rate is <(17.5–22.7) M ⊙ yr –1 with a 90% confidence level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The application of signal detection theory to optics

The restoration of images focused on a photosensitive surface is treated from the standpoint of maximum likelihood estimation, taking into account the Poisson distributions of the observed data, which are the numbers of photoelectrons from various elements of the surface. A detector of an image focused on such a surface utilizes a certain linear combination of those numbers as the optimum detection statistic. Methods for calculating the false alarm and detection probabilities are proposed. It is shown that measuring noncommuting observables in an ideal quantum receiver cannot yield a lower Bayes cost than that attainable by a system measuring only commuting observables.

Helstrom, C. W.↗

Low-cost coding techniques for digital fault diagnosis

Published report discusses fault location properties of arithmetic codes. Criterion for effectiveness of given code is detection probability of local fault by application of checking algorithm to results of entire set of algorithms of processor. Report also presents analysis of arithmetic codes with low-cost check algorithm which possesses partial fault-location properties.

Avizienis, A. A.↗

Management of natural resources through automatic cartographic inventory

The author has identified the following significant results. (1) Accurate recognition of previously known ground features from ERTS-1 imagery has been confirmed and a probable detection range for the major signatures can be given. (2) Unidentified elements, however, must be decoded by means of the equal densitometric value zone method. (3) Determination of these zonings involves an analogical treatment of images using the color equidensity methods (pseudo-color), color composites and especially temporal color composite (repetitive superposition). (4) After this analogical preparation, the digital equidensities can be processed by computer in the four MSS bands, according to a series of transfer operations from imagery and automatic cartography.

Rey, P.↗