Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “determining the coordination number”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Mid-Atlantic Technology Applications Center

Mid-atlantic Technology Application Center (MTAC) pursued a number of initiatives designed to enhance the strategic position of the Langley Research Center (LaRC) and NASA in industry. Among these was a closer association with the ISA, International Society for Measurement and Control. During 1997, MTAC placed articles regarding NASA-developed technologies in each In Tech magazine. The monthly magazine is sent to 46,000 sensors and instrumentation professionals. In addition, MTAC coordinated NASXs participation in the ISA Tech 97 Conference, securing $112,000 of free exhibit space, 1500 NASA sensors posters at no cost to NASA, and thousands of dollars of free publicity. MTAC was awarded a contract by ISA to operate its Technical Resource Center (TRC). The goal of this project is to determine what user needs are in order to identify opportunities for collaboration between NASA centers and companies. In addition, the TRC work will lay the groundwork for the Technology Development Consortium (TDC) proposed by MTAC. The purpose of the TDC is to: match current industry needs with NASA technologies available now, and to identify future needs of NASA and industry which may lead to dual use projects. The goal of these activities is twofold: to infuse NASA technologies into the sensors and instrumentation industry and to secure industry funds to support NASA technology development projects. The instrumentation and sensors industry is valued at $30 billion worldwide, with $12 billion in sales in the United States. The growth rate averages 13.5%, so that by the year 2000, the industry will produce products worth $49 billion. More than 80% of instruments, sensors and control systems are currently manufactured in the United States. NASA and the industry do not have a history of collaborative projects; MTAC's initiatives in this area are designed to foster working relationships between the two parties that will help maintain U.S. leadership in this field. Mid-atlantic Technology Applications Center (MTAC) continued to work on LaRC-SI and Thin Layer Unimorph Driver and Sensor activities. MTAC helped develop the "master license" concept and identified additional applications and potential clients. The goal of these activities was to increase the financial return to Langley Research Center, to ensure the diffusion of the technologies throughout the economy, and to attract partners for future NASA technology development efforts. In an attempt to market LaRC-SI and the Thin Layer Unimorph Driver and Sensor, MTAC developed and pioneered the use of the USRTTC Technology Commercialization Team. As a result, MTAC's sister RTTCs identified both applications and potential users for the two technologies. MTAC also benefitted from its affiliate network to locate companies throughout the region that were interested in the two technologies. MTAC is working with Allegheny Ludlum to monitor the progress of the installation and testing of ultrasonic equipment purchased as a result of Langley Research Center's assistance.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1981

Accuracy of gravitational physics tests using ranges to the inner planets

A number of different types of deviations from Kepler's laws for planetary orbits can occur in nonNewtonian metric gravitational theories. These include secular changes in all of the orbital elements and in the mean motion, plus additional periodic perturbations in the coordinates. The first order corrections to the Keplerian motion of a single planet around the Sun due to the parameterized post Newtonian theory parameters were calculated as well as the corrections due to the solar quadrupole moment and a possible secular change in the gravitational constant. The results were applied to the case of proposed high accuracy ranging experiments from the Earth to a Mercury orbiting spacecraft in order to see how well the various parameters can be determined.

Ashby, N.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mineralogical and Al-Mg Isotopic Study of Fine-Grained Ca-Al-Rich Inclusions

Fine-grained Ca-Al-rich inclusions (FGIs) in carbonaceous chondrites are interpreted as aggregates of nebular gas-solid condensates that escaped significant melting.Thus far, a small number of FGIs from CV3 chondrites have been analyzed, showing a range of (26Al/27Al)0=~5.4×10−5to ~3.4×10−5.These values are similar to (26Al/27Al)0inferred from coarse-grained, igneous CAIs (CGIs) from CV3 chondrites.This observed spread in (26Al/27Al)0values indicates the CAI formation over an extended time period. However, more analyses are needed to determine if the FGIs formed continuously over a significant time period or by multiple episodic events of nebular condensation. In this study, we present high-precision Al-Mg isotopic data of FGIs from reduced CV3 chondrites to better constrain their formation timescale relative to CGIs in CV3 chondrites, as well as to smaller FGIs in CO3 chondrites. This isotopic study is coordinated with a FIB/TEM study to elucidate the origin and nature of FGIs in the petrologic and mineralogical context.

J Han↗
NASA NTRS1973

Some effects of elasticity on lunar rotation

A general Hamiltonian for a rotating moon in the field of the earth is expanded in terms of parameters orienting the spin angular momentum relative to the principal axes of the moon and relative to coordinate axes fixed in the orbital plane. The effects of elastic distortion are included as modifications of the moment of inertia tensor, where the magnitude of the distortion is parameterized by the Love number k2. The amplitudes of the principal periodic terms in the longitude of a point on the moon due to variations of the tide caused by the earth are discussed. A detailed derivation of the free wobble of the lunar spin axis about the axis of maximum moment of inertia is given. If the moon's rigidity is close to that of the earth there is no effect of elasticity on the rotation which can be measured with the laser ranging and, therefore, no elastic properties of the moon can be determined from variations in the rotation.

Peale, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Interaction of upstream flow distortions with high Mach number cascades

Features of the interaction of flow distortions, such as gusts and wakes with blade rows of advance type fans and compressors having high tip Mach numbers are modeled. A typical disturbance was assumed to have harmonic time dependence and was described, at a far upstream location, in three orthogonal spatial coordinates by a double Fourier series. It was convected at supersonic relative to a linear cascade described as an unrolled annulus. Conditions were selected so that the component of this velocity parallel to the axis of the turbomachine was subsonic, permitting interaction between blades through the upstream as well as downstream flow media. A strong, nearly normal shock was considered in the blade passages which was allowed curvature and displacement. The flows before and after the shock were linearized relative to uniform mean velocities in their respective regions. Solution of the descriptive equations was by adaption of the Wiener-Hopf technique, enabling a determination of distortion patterns through and downstream of the cascade as well as pressure distributions on the blade and surfaces. Details of interaction of the disturbance with the in-passage shock were discussed. Infuences of amplitude, wave length, and phase of the disturbance on lifts and moments of cascade configurations are presented. Numerical results are clarified by reference to an especially orderly pattern of upstream vertical motion in relation to the cascade parameters.

Englert, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Long-Term Stability of Radio Sources in VLBI Analysis

Positional stability of radio sources is an important requirement for modeling of only one source position for the complete length of VLBI data of presently more than 20 years. The stability of radio sources can be verified by analyzing time series of radio source coordinates. One approach is a statistical test for normal distribution of residuals to the weighted mean for each radio source component of the time series. Systematic phenomena in the time series can thus be detected. Nevertheless, an inspection of rate estimation and weighted root-mean-square (WRMS) variations about the mean is also necessary. On the basis of the time series computed by the BKG group in the frame of the ICRF2 working group, 226 stable radio sources with an axis stability of 10 as could be identified. They include 100 ICRF2 axes-defining sources which are determined independently of the method applied in the ICRF2 working group. 29 stable radio sources with a source structure index of less than 3.0 can also be used to increase the number of 295 ICRF2 defining sources.

Engelhardt, Gerald↗
NASA NTRS1937

On the actual loads on airplane landing gears

This investigation was intended to throw light on a number of problems: 1) obtain a time history of the force acting on the gear wheels during take-off and landing runs; 2) obtain the time history of the direction of this force (magnitude of its three components along the coordinate axes); 3) derive conclusions as to the design load factors. In connection with the latter, of special interest was the solution of such problems as: a) the dynamic loads in the three main landing attitudes; b) the problem of the true direction of the forces for each of the three "pure" types of landing; c) combination of the above types; d) the comparison for each of the chassis members of the computed force (according to the design standards) with the actual force measured in the tests so as to determine the actual factors of safety.

Shiskin, S↗
NASA NTRS1961

Pressure Loads Produced on a Flat-Plate Wing By Rocket Jets Exhausting in a Spanwise Direction Below the Wing and Perpendicular to a Free-Stream Flow of Mach Number 2.0

An investigation at a Reynolds number per foot of 14.4 x 10(exp 6) was made to determine the pressure loads produced on a flat-plate wing by rocket jets exhausting in a spanwise direction beneath the wing and perpendicular to a free-stream flow of Mach number 2.0. The ranges of the variables involved were (1) nozzle types - one sonic (jet Mach number of 1.00), two supersonic (jet Mach numbers of 1.74 and 3.04),. and one two-dimensional supersonic (jet Mach number of 1.71); (2) vertical nozzle positions beneath the wing of 4, 8 and 12 nozzle-throat diameters; and (3) ratios of rocket-chamber total pressure to free- stream static pressure from 0 to 130. The incremental normal force due to jet interference on the wing varied from one to two times the rocket thrust and generally decreased as the pressure ratio increased. The chordwise coordinate of the incremental-normal-force center of pressure remained upstream of the nozzle center line for the nozzle positions and pressure ratios of the investigation. The chordwise coordinate approached zero as the jet vertical distance beneath the wing increased. In the spanwise direction there was little change due to varying rocket-jet position and pressure ratio. Some boundary-layer flow separation on the wing was observed for the rocket jets close to the wing and at the higher pressure ratios. The magnitude of the chordwise and spanwise pressure distributions due to jet interference was greatest for rocket jets close to the wing and decreased as the jet was displaced farther from the wing. The design procedure for the rockets used is given in the appendix.

Falanga, Ralph A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Autonomous Multi-Sensor Coordination: The Science Goal Monitor

Many dramatic earth phenomena are dynamic and coupled. In order to fully understand them, we need to obtain timely coordinated multi-sensor observations from widely dispersed instruments. Such a dynamic observing system must include the ability to Schedule flexibly and react autonomously to sciencehser driven events; Understand higher-level goals of a sciencehser defined campaign; Coordinate various space-based and ground-based resources/sensors effectively and efficiently to achieve goals. In order to capture transient events, such a 'sensor web' system must have an automated reactive capability built into its scientific operations. To do this, we must overcome a number of challenges inherent in infusing autonomy. The Science Goal Monitor (SGM) is a prototype software tool being developed to explore the nature of automation necessary to enable dynamic observing. The tools being developed in SGM improve our ability to autonomously monitor multiple independent sensors and coordinate reactions to better observe dynamic phenomena. The SGM system enables users to specify what to look for and how to react in descriptive rather than technical terms. The system monitors streams of data to identify occurrences of the key events previously specified by the scientisther. When an event occurs, the system autonomously coordinates the execution of the users' desired reactions between different sensors. The information can be used to rapidly respond to a variety of fast temporal events. Investigators will no longer have to rely on after-the-fact data analysis to determine what happened. Our paper describes a series of prototype demonstrations that we have developed using SGM and NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite and Earth Observing Systems' Aqua/Terra spacecrafts' MODIS instrument. Our demonstrations show the promise of coordinating data from different sources, analyzing the data for a relevant event, autonomously updating and rapidly obtaining a follow-on relevant image. SGM was used to investigate forest fires, floods and volcanic eruptions. We are now identifying new Earth science scenarios that will have more complex SGM reasoning. By developing and testing a prototype in an operational environment, we are also establishing and gathering metrics to gauge the success of automating science campaigns.

Koratkar, Anuradha↗
NASA NTRS1987

Inverse kinematic-based robot control

A fundamental problem which must be resolved in virtually all non-trivial robotic operations is the well-known inverse kinematic question. More specifically, most of the tasks which robots are called upon to perform are specified in Cartesian (x,y,z) space, such as simple tracking along one or more straight line paths or following a specified surfacer with compliant force sensors and/or visual feedback. In all cases, control is actually implemented through coordinated motion of the various links which comprise the manipulator; i.e., in link space. As a consequence, the control computer of every sophisticated anthropomorphic robot must contain provisions for solving the inverse kinematic problem which, in the case of simple, non-redundant position control, involves the determination of the first three link angles, theta sub 1, theta sub 2, and theta sub 3, which produce a desired wrist origin position P sub xw, P sub yw, and P sub zw at the end of link 3 relative to some fixed base frame. Researchers outline a new inverse kinematic solution and demonstrate its potential via some recent computer simulations. They also compare it to current inverse kinematic methods and outline some of the remaining problems which will be addressed in order to render it fully operational. Also discussed are a number of practical consequences of this technique beyond its obvious use in solving the inverse kinematic question.

Wolovich, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A FFT Method for the Quasiclassical Selection of Initial Ro-Vibrational States of Triatomic Molecules

This paper describes the use of an exact fast Fourier transform (FFT) method to prepare specified vibrational-rotational states of triatomic molecules. The method determines the Fourier coefficients needed to describe the coordinates and momenta of a vibrating-rotating triatomic molecule. Once the Fourier coefficients of a particular state are determined, it is possible to easily generate as many random sets of initial cartesian coordinates and momenta as desired. All the members of each set will correspond to the particular vibrational-rotational state selected. For example, in the case of the ground vibrational state of a non-rotating water molecule, the calculated actions of 100 sets of initial conditions produced actions within 0.001 h(bar) of the specified quantization values and energies within 5 cm(sup -1) of the semiclassical eigenvalue. The numerical procedure is straightforward for states in which all the fundamental frequencies are independent. However for states for which the fundamental frequencies become commensurate (resonance states), there are additional complications. In these cases it is necessary to determine a new set of "fundamental" frequencies and to modify the quantization conditions. Once these adjustments are made, good results are obtained for resonance states. The major problems are in labelling the large number of Fourier coefficients and the presence of regions of chaotic motion. Results are presented for the vibrational states of H2O and HCN and the ro-vibrational states of H2O.

Eaker, Charles W.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Results from the ASTERIA CubeSat Extended Mission Experiments

Over the past two years, JPL has used the ASTERIA (Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research In Astrophysics) CubeSat as an in-flight test platform during extended missions. ASTERIA successfully completed its prime mission in early 2018, and continued to operate in low Earth orbit (LEO) for an additional twenty months. This paper describes demonstrations that were performed on the spacecraft and on the ground-based testbed during the extended mission. These demonstrations fall into three categories: Autonomy technology maturation, hardware characterization, and science discovery. Autonomy technology maturation supported three development efforts. The first shifted the spacecraft commanding paradigm from time-based sequences to Task Networks (tasknets), which allow simpler commanding and more robust onboard execution. The second demonstrated onboard orbit determination in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) without GPS. This activity used a fully-independent means of spacecraft orbit determination for Earth orbiters using only passive imaging. The third technology provided in situ hardware health state estimation using a model-based reasoning technique. These three technologies were demonstrated either in flight or on the testbed individually, and then were combined to demonstrate the capability to perform autonomous navigation on board without ground intervention, even in the presence of anomalies. Hardware characterization involved both onboard and ground-based activities. On board, nonstandard attitude control modes were commanded to characterize the spacecraft pointing jitter as a function of target brightness, reaction wheel speed, controller gain, and the number of guide stars. The results provide insights into the contribution of jitter to the ASTERIA photometry and inform the feasibility of future astrophysics small satellite missions for which jitter control is an enabling technology. On the ground, the ASTERIA Operations Team coordinated with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to configure their new ground stations to communicate with ASTERIA to prove out their viability. ASTERIA used AWS ground stations for nominal operations for the last four months of the mission. Finally, ASTERIA continued to perform exoplanet science as the spacecraft was well-suited to execute long-term monitoring of stars such as alpha Centauri to search for small transiting planets. The science team also imaged a number of interesting objects including a comet, an asteroid, cities at night, and the moon, and coordinated with other projects on Targets of Opportunity for follow-up confirmations and co-observations. Throughout the prime and the extended missions, the ASTERIA spacecraft proved to be a mighty platform that “will go into history as an innovative milestone.”[1 - Zurbuchen]

Doran, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamic interactions between hypersonic vehicle aerodynamics and propulsion system performance

Described here is the development of a flexible simulation model for scramjet hypersonic propulsion systems. The primary goal is determination of sensitivity of the thrust vector and other system parameters to angle of attack changes of the vehicle. Such information is crucial in design and analysis of control system performance for hypersonic vehicles. The code is also intended to be a key element in carrying out dynamic interaction studies involving the influence of vehicle vibrations on propulsion system/control system coupling and flight stability. Simple models are employed to represent the various processes comprising the propulsion system. A method of characteristics (MOC) approach is used to solve the forebody and external nozzle flow fields. This results in a very fast computational algorithm capable of carrying out the vast number of simulation computations needed in guidance, stability, and control studies. The three-dimensional fore- and aft body (nozzle) geometry is characterized by the centerline profiles as represented by a series of coordinate points and body cross-section curvature. The engine module geometry is represented by an adjustable vertical grid to accommodate variations of the field parameters throughout the inlet and combustor. The scramjet inlet is modeled as a two-dimensional supersonic flow containing adjustable sidewall wedges and multiple fuel injection struts. The inlet geometry including the sidewall wedge angles, the number of injection struts, their sweepback relative to the vehicle reference line, and strut cross-section are user selectable. Combustion is currently represented by a Rayleigh line calculation including corrections for variable gas properties; improved models are being developed for this important element of the propulsion flow field. The program generates (1) variation of thrust magnitude and direction with angle of attack, (2) pitching moment and line of action of the thrust vector, (3) pressure and temperature distributions throughout the system, and (4) performance parameters such as thrust coefficient, specific impulse, mass flow rates, and equivalence ratio. Preliminary results are in good agreement with available performance data for systems resembling the NASP vehicle configuration.

Flandro, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS HYD-1 Soil Hydraulic Properties

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Hydrology (HYD)-1 team coordinated a program of data collection to measure and monitor soil properties in collaboration with other science team measurement needs. This data set contains soil hydraulic properties determined at the Northern Study Area (NSA) and Southern Study Area (SSA) flux tower sites based on analysis of in situ tension infiltrometer tests and laboratory-determined water retention from soil cores collected during the 1994-95 field campaigns. Results from this analysis are saturated hydraulic conductivity, and fitting parameters for the van Genuchten-Mualem soil hydraulic conductivity and water retention function at flux tower sites. The data are contained in tabular ASCII files. The HYD-01 soil hydraulic properties data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Hall, Forrest G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Implementation of the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) in the NASA/NCAR finite-volume Global Climate Model (fvGCM)

In this study, the NCAR CLM version 2.0 land-surface model was integrated into the NASA/NCAR fvGCM. The CLM was developed collaboratively by an open interagency/university group of scientists and based on well-proven physical parameterizations and numerical schemes that combine the best features of BATS, NCAR-LSM, and IAP94. The CLM design is a one-dimensional point model with 1 vegetation layer, along with sub-grid scale tiles. The features of the CLM include 10-uneven soil layers with water, ice, and temperature states in each soil layer, and five snow layers, with water flow, refreezing, compaction, and aging allowed. In addition, the CLM utilizes two-stream canopy radiative transfer, the Bonan lake model and topographic enhanced streamflow based on TOPMODEL. The DAO fvGCM uses a genuinely conservative Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian transport algorithm along with terrain- following Lagrangian control-volume vertical coordinates. The physical parameterizations are based on the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-2). For our purposes, the fvGCM was run at 2 deg x 2.5 deg horizontal resolution with 55 vertical levels. The 10-year climate from the fvGCM with CLM2 was intercompared with the climate from fvGCM with LSM, ECMWF and NCEP. We concluded that the incorporation of CLM2 did not significantly impact the fvGCM climate from that of LSM. The most striking difference was the warm bias in the CLM2 surface skin temperature over desert regions. We determined that the warm bias can be partially attributed to the value of the drag coefficient for the soil under the canopy, which was too small resulting in a decoupling between the ground surface and the canopy. We also discovered that the canopy interception was high compared to observations in the Amazon region. A number of experiments were then performed focused on implementing model improvements. In order to correct the warm bias, the drag coefficient for the soil under the canopy was considered a function of LAI (Leaf Area Index). Analysis of the results revealed that there was a substantial impact, and the warm and dry bias in the CLM2 was significantly reduced. For the interception scheme, the canopy throughfall was increased to allow for more infiltration of precipitation into the soil, resulting in increased low-level moisture and a decrease in the interception loss ratio (canopy evaporation to precipitation).

Radakovich, Jon D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Polar decomposition for attitude determination from vector observations

This work treats the problem of weighted least squares fitting of a 3D Euclidean-coordinate transformation matrix to a set of unit vectors measured in the reference and transformed coordinates. A closed-form analytic solution to the problem is re-derived. The fact that the solution is the closest orthogonal matrix to some matrix defined on the measured vectors and their weights is clearly demonstrated. Several known algorithms for computing the analytic closed form solution are considered. An algorithm is discussed which is based on the polar decomposition of matrices into the closest unitary matrix to the decomposed matrix and a Hermitian matrix. A somewhat longer improved algorithm is suggested too. A comparison of several algorithms is carried out using simulated data as well as real data from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. The comparison is based on accuracy and time consumption. It is concluded that the algorithms based on polar decomposition yield a simple although somewhat less accurate solution. The precision of the latter algorithms increase with the number of the measured vectors and with the accuracy of their measurement.

Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Analyzing Aeroelastic Stability of a Tilt-Rotor Aircraft

Proprotor Aeroelastic Stability Analysis, now at version 4.5 (PASTA 4.5), is a FORTRAN computer program for analyzing the aeroelastic stability of a tiltrotor aircraft in the airplane mode of flight. The program employs a 10-degree- of-freedom (DOF), discrete-coordinate, linear mathematical model of a rotor with three or more blades and its drive system coupled to a 10-DOF modal model of an airframe. The user can select which DOFs are included in the analysis. Quasi-steady strip-theory aerodynamics is employed for the aerodynamic loads on the blades, a quasi-steady representation is employed for the aerodynamic loads acting on the vibrational modes of the airframe, and a stability-derivative approach is used for the aerodynamics associated with the rigid-body DOFs of the airframe. Blade parameters that vary with the blade collective pitch can be obtained by interpolation from a user-defined table. Stability is determined by examining the eigenvalues that are obtained by solving the coupled equations of motions as a matrix eigenvalue problem. Notwithstanding the relative simplicity of its mathematical foundation, PASTA 4.5 and its predecessors have played key roles in a number of engineering investigations over the years.

Kvaternil, Raymond G.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The GLACE-2 Experiment

A major motivation for the study of the coupled land-atmosphere system is the idea that soil moisture anomalies may affect future meteorological variables through their effects on future surface energy and water budgets. If true, the accurate initialization of soil moisture in a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system may improve forecast skill, making the forecast products more valuable to society. The Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) project is examining, with a wide variety of models, the degree to which subseasonal (out to two months) precipitation and air temperature forecasts improve through the realistic initialization of soil moisture. For the first time ever, a global consensus should emerge regarding the value of land initialization for forecasts, perhaps motivating national forecast centers to make full use of land moisture initialization in their operations. Participants in GLACE-2 perform two series of forecasts, each consisting of 100 2-month forecast ensembles (10 members per ensemble) covering ten boreal spring and summer start-dates in each of the years 1986-1995. Series 1 utilizes realistic land surface state initialization, provided through a decadal offline simulation using realistic meteorological forcing, as provided by the Global Soil Wetness Project - Phase 2 (GSWP-2), a research activity of the Global Land-Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of GEWEX. Series 2 is identical to Series 1 in every way except for the fact that it does not benefit from realistic land state initialization. Through the comparison of Series 1 and 2, we isolate the impact of land initialization on the forecasts. Optional extensions to these base runs include forecasts covering additional years, using alternative meteorological forcing for the land initialization. To date, GLACE-2 has garnered participation from eleven modeling groups, covering 13 atmospheric models. Analysis of available results is already well underway, both at the individual modeling institutions and at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, which is coordinating the project. Analysis focuses on two elements of the forecast problem: (i) the quantification of model-specific "predictability" (i.e., the degree to which simulated atmospheric chaos will foil a forecast, even under the assumption of"perfect" model physics, initialization data, and validation data) and its decay with time; and (ii) the quantification of forecast skill, determined through a comparison of predicted precipitation and air temperature against observations. Indeed, the specific contribution of land initialization to both these elements is isolated through a comparison of the Series 1 and 2 forecasts. We examine the two elements at four different forecast leads: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 days. Statistics-based approaches for enhancing skill (essentially using observational statistics to reduce the impact of the models' climatic biases) are also tested. In the present talk, we provide an update of progress in GLACE-2, featuring quantifications of predictability and forecast skill for a number of the participating models and providing a "first look" at the desired consensus view of land impacts on subseasonal forecasts.

Koster, Randal↗