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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Vegetation browning: global drivers, impacts, and feedbacks

As global climate conditions continue to change, disturbance regimes and environmental drivers will continue to shift, impacting global vegetation dynamics. Following a period of vegetation greening, there has been a progressive increase in remotely sensed vegetation browning globally. Further, given the many societal benefits that forests provide, it is critical that we understand vegetation dynamic alterations. Here, we review associative drivers, impacts, and feedbacks, revealing the complexity of browning. Concomitant increases in browning include the weakening of ecosystem services and functions and alterations to vegetation structure and species composition as well as the development of potential positive climate change feedbacks. Also discussed are the current challenges in browning detection and understanding associated impacts and feedbacks. Finally, we outline recommended strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Future water scarcity is a global concern with significant impacts on the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods consumed around the world, so disruptions resulting from land and water scarcity in LAC are a source of global supply chain risk. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could drive that scarcity to emerge is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity impacts in LAC is challenging given the multisector dynamic interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across different spatial scales. We use scenario discovery to explore the drivers of future water scarcity, considering assumptions related to climate, socioeconomics, and the EWL sectors. Understanding what factors drive uncertainty across outcomes can help stakeholders in targeting long-term solutions and future data collection efforts. To illuminate these dynamics, we use a database consisting of a large ensemble of scenarios representing diverse worlds simulated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across the scenarios using three metrics: (1) physical water scarcity, (2) water price, and (3) crop profit. We find that physical water scarcity and water price are driven primarily by reservoir storage capacity assumptions, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability and accessibility. Crop profit is driven by a combination of water supply and demand assumptions, which emphasizes the complex nature of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for development, water basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high levels of severity and uncertainty across the future scenarios for at least one of the metrics. We find that the drivers of extreme scarcity vary spatially and across the metrics, further highlighting the heterogeneity of the region and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity vulnerability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling the Relative Drivers of Seasonal Evapotranspiration Across a Continental-Scale Aridity Gradient

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a significant ecosystem flux, governing the partitioning of energy at the land surface. Understanding the seasonal pattern and magnitude of ET is critical for anticipating a range of ecosystem impacts, including drought, heat-wave events, and plant mortality. Here, in this study, we identified the relative controls of seasonal variability in ET, and how these controls vary among ecosystems. We used overlapping AmeriFlux and PhenoCam time series at a daily timestep from 20 sites to explore these linkages (# site-years >100), and our study area covered a broad climatological aridity gradient in the U.S. and Canada. We focused on disentangling the most important controls of bulk surface conductance (G s ) and evaporative fraction (EF = LE/[H + LE]), where LE and H represent latent and sensible heat fluxes, respectively. Specifically, we investigated how vegetation phenology varied in importance relative to meteorological variables (vapor pressure deficit and antecedent precipitation) as a driver of G s and EF using path analysis, a framework for quantifying and comparing the causal linkages among multiple response and explanatory variables. Our results revealed that the drivers of G s and EF seasonality varied significantly between energy- and water-limited ecosystems. Specifically, precipitation had a much higher effect in water-limited ecosystems, while seasonal patterns in canopy greenness emerged as a stronger control in energy-limited ecosystems. Given that phenology is expected to shift under future climate, our findings provide key information for understanding and predicting how phenology may impact 21st-century hydroclimate regimes and the surface-energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future

The Duwamish River Estuary (DRE) of Washington is prone to compound flooding during atmospheric river (AR) events. The processes contributing to such flooding (coastal and fluvial) have remained opaque to municipalities that are increasingly impacted. Here, we conduct a suite of coupled atmosphere-hydrology-ocean model simulations with varying forcing combinations (tide, surge, and/or river discharge) to identify the primary drivers of compound flooding during a recent AR event. We also test year 2,100 climate forcing to project how flooding and drivers may change in the future for the same event. We identify a clear distinction between dynamics in the downstream, engineered portion of the DRE compared to the upstream, “natural” river. Downstream, tides dominate water levels but contributions from storm surge and nonlinear tide-surge interaction elevate tide-only high waters from no flooding to major flooding. Upstream, total water levels during the event are ∼6 cm higher than downstream due to an increasing influence of river discharge over surge and tides. Notably, nonlinear surge-river and tide-river interactions act to reduce upstream water levels up to 50% compared to estimates which linearly sum tides, surge, and river, likely reducing flood vulnerability. Under two future climate scenarios: one with only sea level rise (SLR) and another with SLR plus atmospheric warming, we find little change in mechanism contributions to water levels. Expanded flooding in both cases is largely due to SLR, as a ∼50% increase to river discharge under the warming scenario has no impact downstream and marginally increases (∼3 cm) water level upstream.

atmospheric river↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers of Water Use and Their Spatio‐Temporal Patterns for Small and Mid‐Sized Cities in the Contiguous United States

This study explores the drivers of urban water use and their spatial-temporal patterns in 142 small and mid-sized cities across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) by analyzing the data directly collected from these cities and using advanced machine learning techniques. We identify five distinguished clusters across CONUS, each showing unique trends of the impact of drivers on water use. We find that socioeconomic factors significantly influence water use in eastern and southwestern cities, while climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature range dominate in central and northwestern regions. Temporal analysis reveals the impacts of major socioeconomic and climatic disruptions on urban water use in the period 2011–2021, including the COVID lockdown, the rapid growth of data centers, and the drought of 2012. In addition, our analysis suggests that economic growth in small and mid-sized US cities continues to be accompanied by rising water use, contrasting with the opposite trend observed in large cities in prior studies. This implies that as smaller cities develop, their water use may increase above current levels until incomes reach a higher threshold, highlighting the need to improve water use efficiency. This study also presents useful insights for developing effective water demand management strategies in response to climatic variability and socioeconomic growth in small and mid-sized cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neutron generator based on intense lithium beam driver

We are proposing a compact neutron generator based on a Li beam driver. The proposed neutron generator comprises a laser ion source, a radio-frequency quadrupole linear accelerator (RFQ linac), a drift tube linac, and a target containing protons. In the generator, the lithium ion is used as a projectile instead of protons to utilize the kinematic focusing technique. The technique enables us to enhance the neutron flux without increasing the beam energy, which is important to develop a clean compact neutron generator. Moreover, the combination of a laser ion source and a RFQ linac with the direct plasma injection scheme will provide several tens of mA of a fully ionized lithium beam, which is much higher than that of conventional heavy ion sources comparable with proton drivers. Neutrons are generated by the nuclear reaction of the lithium ions and protons in the beam target. In this paper, we reported the current status of the development. For RFQ, we designed the RFQ rods to accelerate 40 mA of 7Li3+. We fabricated and installed the rods into a cavity, and, as a first test, accelerated 10 mA of C6+ successfully.

Ikeda, Shunsuke (ORCID:0000000339800577)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamics and energy coupling of gas puff Z-pinches on a fast linear transformer driver

Gas puff Z-pinch experiments with annular Ar and Ne gas shells have been conducted on the Compact Experimental System for Z-pinch and Ablation Research (CESZAR) linear transformer driver (LTD) with 500 kA current and 160 ns rise time. Here, we present results from the first systematic gas puff Z-pinch experiments using a fast (≤ 200 ns) LTD as a driver, in which we show that 7% of the stored energy in the capacitors is coupled to plasma kinetic energy as estimated via self-emission and laser schlieren images. 0D and 1D simulations—which do not allow instability growth and thus reach greater maximum average velocities—using initial conditions inferred from experimental implosion trajectories predict coupling in excess of 10% of the stored energy. Additionally, the Ar and Ne implosions were comparably massed and thus achieved similar maximum kinetic energies, though the Ne pinches were more stable and the x-ray pulses were longer and produced higher yield: 2–5 ns and 0.21–0.52 J (0.15–0.37 J/cm) of Ar K-shell and 12–25 ns and 2.2–3.9 J (1.6–2.6 J/cm) of Ne K-shell, respectively. The difference in stability is most likely attributed to variations in initial conditions such as density distribution and gas breakdown initiation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental drivers of spatial variation in tropical forest canopy height: Insights from NASA’s GEDI spaceborne LiDAR

Forest canopy height is a fundamental ecosystem property—influencing patterns of forest carbon storage and forest ecosystem responses to climate variability and change. Previous studies have analyzed environmental drivers influencing spatial variation in canopy height at landscape-to-regional scales; however, far less is known about the environmental determinants underlying regional and global scale variation in forest canopy height. Using the canopy height metrics products from Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), a space-borne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) instrument specifically designed to characterize forest structure, we analyze the environmental correlates of spatial variation of global tropical forest canopy height. Our study demonstrates that climate, topography, and soil properties account for 75% of the variation in tropical forest canopy height. Elevation, dry season length, and solar radiation are the most important drivers in determining canopy height both locally and regionally. These results emphasize the vulnerability of tropical forest structure to ongoing changes in the earth’s climate and provide a valuable empirical baseline for tropical forest management.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Concept Descriptions for the VTR Rabbit System and Driver Fuel Test Assemblies

Two of the experiment vehicles being developed for the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) are presented here. The first is a rabbit system that will enable rapid insertion of small test capsules into the high fast flux of the VTR core for relatively short durations. The rabbit concept development includes the construction/demonstration of a near-full-scale system in a deep-water pool to demonstrate functionality, development of a concept of operations and initial procedures, and validation of thermal-hydraulic modeling. In addition, modeling efforts are underway to simulate the thermal and neutronic environment of a rabbit capsule. The second type of experiment vehicle presented here is a driver fuel test assembly for inserting fuel and materials tests into the core by replacing a driver fuel assembly. Here, a novel design for dismountable test assemblies is proposed for the VTR.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gene-by-environment interactions in plants: Molecular mechanisms, environmental drivers, and adaptive plasticity

Abstract Plants demonstrate a broad range of responses to environmental shifts. One of the most remarkable responses is plasticity, which is the ability of a single plant genotype to produce different phenotypes in response to environmental stimuli. As with all traits, the ability of plasticity to evolve depends on the presence of underlying genetic diversity within a population. A common approach for evaluating the role of genetic variation in driving differences in plasticity has been to study genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E). G × E occurs when genotypes produce different phenotypic trait values in response to different environments. In this review, we highlight progress and promising methods for identifying the key environmental and genetic drivers of G × E. Specifically, methodological advances in using algorithmic and multivariate approaches to understand key environmental drivers combined with new genomic innovations can greatly increase our understanding about molecular responses to environmental stimuli. These developing approaches can be applied to proliferating common garden networks that capture broad natural environmental gradients to unravel the underlying mechanisms of G × E. An increased understanding of G × E can be used to enhance the resilience and productivity of agronomic systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Salt marsh soil organic carbon is regulated by drivers of microbial activity

Abstract Soil organic carbon is the foundation for soil health and a livable climate. Organic carbon is concentrated in coastal wetland soils, but dynamics that govern carbon persistence in coastal ecosystems remain incompletely understood. Whether microbial activity results in a gain or loss of carbon depends on environmental conditions that regulate microbial community attributes. We sought to identify which drivers of microbial activity have the greatest impact on organic carbon content in salt marsh soils. To address this question, we used the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses) statement to compile data on soil and ecosystem characteristics from 50 studies of over 60 salt marshes located around the world. We conducted a meta-analysis with structural equation modeling, including mediation and moderation analyses, to identify environmental drivers of salt marsh soil organic carbon content. High salinity, pH, nitrogen, and phosphorus were associated with increased microbial biomass carbon and soil organic carbon. Correlations between microbial biomass and organic carbon were strengthened by soil salinity and nitrogen, and weakened by soil water content. These results suggest that environmental conditions that control microbial growth and activity have potential to preserve or degrade organic carbon in salt marsh soils.

Erb, Hailey (ORCID:0000000337295634)↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Smart Silicon Carbide Power Module With Pulse Width Modulation Over Wi-Fi and Wireless Power Transfer-Enabled Gate Driver, Featuring Onboard State of Health Estimator and High-Voltage Scaling Capabilities

A wide range of utility applications require controllable switches with features such as high-voltage blocking and high-current carrying capacity, especially at high pulse width modulation (PWM) frequency. Low- and medium-voltage utility applications such as motor drives and flexible AC transmission systems as well as solid state transformers could also benefit from a low-cost high-voltage switching module. Wide-bandgap semiconductors such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETs) are considered to be the present and next-generation device choices, although they have limitations. For relatively high-voltage applications with demanding thermal management, SiC is still the only choice, and GaN dominates the low-voltage regime. This manuscript proposes a new half-bridge power MOSFET module that is suitable for conventional H-bridge of multilevel configurations used in high-voltage applications. Constructed from bare SiC dies, this half-bridge module takes advantage of (1) optimized MOSFET placement inside the module, (2) customized heat exchanger, manifold, and cooling, (3) integrated gate driver module with pulse width modulation (PWM) over wi-fi to eliminate the need for low-voltage signals, (4) wireless power transfer (WPT)-enabled gate driver and other ancillary circuits, (5) and the option to incorporate an onboard state-of-health (SOH) estimator module. The entire architecture has been designed and built at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, CO.

Ga2O3 devices↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗
DOE OSTI2024

Testing of a Line Driver With Configurable Pre-Emphasis on Lossy Transmission Lines

Rare-event physics experiments such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) or the next Enriched Xenon Observatory (nEXO) experiment search for rare, low-energy events, detected by sensitive detectors immersed in a cryogenic noble liquid (e.g., liquid argon or xenon). Readout electronics used within such detectors must consume minimal power while operating reliably in cryogenic environments. Furthermore, in the case of nEXO, maximizing the radiopurity of the environment is vital to minimize background noise, thus placing strict limits on the volume of dielectric materials, leading to high-loss data cables spanning distances up to 12 m. Such cables cause high attenuation and intersymbol interference (ISI), resulting in a high bit-error rate (BER). These issues were addressed by developing an integrated line driver with configurable pre-emphasis in a 65-nm CMOS process. The pre-emphasis parameters can be programmed to minimize BER for specific cables and data rates under power constraints. Here, the driver was tested at both room and cryogenic temperatures. In both cases, the output BER was found to be strongly correlated with the pre-emphasis settings. Furthermore, analysis and simulation showed that adapting the pre-emphasis settings based on the incoming bit sequence can further improve performance with minimal changes to the current solution.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global drivers of avian haemosporidian infections vary across zoogeographical regions

Macroecological analyses provide valuable insights into factors that influence how parasites are distributed across space and among hosts. Amid large uncertainties that arise when generalizing from local and regional findings, hierarchical approaches applied to global datasets are required to determine whether drivers of parasite infection patterns vary across scales. Here we assessed global patterns of haemosporidian infections across a broad diversity of avian host clades and zoogeographical realms to depict hotspots of prevalence and to identify possible underlying drivers.

haemosporidian prevalence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Root‐Pore Interactions, the Underestimated Driver for Rhizosphere Structure and Rhizosheath Development

Physical characteristics of rhizosphere and rhizosheath, that is, root-adhering soil, are crucial for plant performance. Yet, the drivers of the rhizosphere's structural properties and their relationships with rhizosheath development remain unclear. We used X-ray computed micro-tomography (i) to explore two drivers of rhizosphere porosity: root-induced changes vs. preferential root growth into soil with certain pore characteristics and (ii) to estimate their contributions to rhizosphere macroporosity gradients and rhizosheath formation. Rhizosheath development was assessed in relation to rhizosphere macroporosity and rhizodeposition after ¹⁴C labeling. Our results confirmed that both root-induced changes and growth preferences shape rhizosphere structure, with their relative significance depending on the inherent macropore availability. In intact soils, growth preferences were the dominant factor, while in sieved soils the root-induced changes became equally important. Rhizosheath formation was associated with roots compacting their surrounding and releasing carbon. However, no correlation was found between rhizosheath formation and the actual rhizosphere, that is, the volume of soil adjacent to the roots. The study offers new process-level understanding of rhizosphere porosity gradients, while emphasizing caution in interpreting root growth data from sieved soil studies. Similarly, traditional destructively sampled rhizosheath may not fully capture the true characteristics of the actual rhizosphere, underscoring importance of intact-soil analyses.

macroporosity gradients↗