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At least 145 records · Page 8

Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies During Two Persistent North American Droughts: 1932-1939 and 1948-1957

We use an early twentieth century (1908-1958) atmospheric reanalysis, based on assimilation of surface and sea level pressure observations, to contrast atmospheric circulation during two periods of persistent drought in North America: 1932-1939 (the Dust Bowl) and 1948-1957. Primary forcing for both droughts is believed to come from anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs): a warm Atlantic and a cool eastern tropical Pacific. For boreal winter (October-March) in the 1950s, a stationary wave pattern originating from the tropical Pacific is present, with positive centers over the north Pacific and north Atlantic ocean basins and a negative center positioned over northwest North America and the tropical/subtropical Pacific. This wave train is largely absent for the 1930s drought; boreal winter height anomalies are organized much more zonally, with positive heights extending across northern North America. For boreal summer (April-September) during the 1930s, a strong upper level ridge is centered over the Great Plains; this feature is absent during the 1950s and appears to be linked to a weakening of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Subsidence anomalies are co-located over the centers of each drought: in the central Great Plains for the 1930s and in a band extending from the southwest to the southeastern United States for the 1950s. The location and intensity of this subsidence during the 1948-1957 drought is a typical response to a cold eastern tropical Pacific, but for 1932-1939 deviates in terms of the expected intensity, location, and spatial extent. Overall, circulation anomalies during the 1950s drought appear consistent with the expected response to the observed SST forcing. This is not the case for the 1930s, implying some other causal factor may be needed to explain the Dust Bowl drought anomalies. In addition to SST forcing, the 1930s were also characterized by massive alterations to the land surface, including regional-scale devegetation from crop failures and intensive wind erosion and dust storms. Incorporation of these land surface factors into a general circulation model greatly improves the simulation of precipitation and subsidence anomalies during this drought, relative to simulations with SST forcing alone. Even with additional forcing from the land surface, however, the model still has difficulty reproducing some of the other circulation anomalies, including weakening of the GPLLJ and strengthening of the upper level ridge during AMJJAS. This may be due to either weaknesses in the model or uncertainties in the boundary condition estimates. Still, analysis of the circulation anomalies supports the conclusion of an earlier paper (Cook et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4997, 2009), demonstrating that land degradation factors are consistent with the anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought.

Cook, Benjamin↗

On the Use of NASA Earth Observations to Characterize the 2012 US Drought

As the harvest season approached in August 2012, much of the United States remained in the grip of a major drought. According to the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), 52 percent of the United States and Puerto Rico was in moderate drought conditions or worse by August 7, 2012 (see Figure 1a). Drought areas were concentrated in the agricultural states in the central U.S.A. The drought threatened global food prices and US biofuel feedstocks. Although areas east of the Mississippi River experienced some relief due to Hurricane Isaac, the drought persisted west of the Mississippi River Basin. The USDA Economic Research Service reports about 80 percent of the US agriculture experienced drought in 2012 making it the most extensive drought since the 1950's. The Financial Times reported 2012 losses at roughly $30 billion dollars. NASA maintains satellite and modelling capabilities that enable the assessment of drought severity and extent on a national and global basis.

water management↗

Flash Drought as Captured by Reanalysis Data: Disentangling the Contributions of Precipitation Deficit and Excess Evapotranspiration

Flash droughts – uncharacteristically rapid dryings of the land system – are naturally associated with extreme precipitation deficits. Such precipitation deficits, however, do not tell the whole story, for land surface drying can be exacerbated by anomalously high evapotranspiration (ET) rates driven by anomalously high temperatures (e.g., during heatwaves), anomalously high incoming radiation (e.g., from reduced cloudiness), and other meteorological anomalies. In this study, the relative contributions of precipitation and ET anomalies to flash drought generation in the Northern Hemisphere are quantified through the analysis of diagnostic fields contained within the MERRA-2 reanalysis product. Unique to the approach is the explicit treatment of soil moisture impacts on ET through relationships diagnosed from the reanalysis data; under this treatment, an ET anomaly that is negative relative to the local long-term climatological mean is still considered positive in terms of its contribution to a flash drought if it is high for the concurrent value of soil moisture. Maps produced in the analysis show the fraction of flash drought production stemming specifically from ET anomalies and illustrate how ET anomalies for some droughts are related to temperature and radiation anomalies. While ET is found to have an important impact on flash drought production in the central US and in parts of Russia known from past studies to be prone to heatwave-related drought, and while this impact does appear stronger during the onset (first several days) of flash droughts, overall the contribution of ET to these droughts is small relative to the contribution of precipitation deficit.

R D Koster↗

Assimilation of vegetation conditions improves the representation of drought over agricultural areas

This study presents an evaluation of the impact of vegetation conditions on a land-surface model (LSM) simulation of agricultural drought. The Noah-MP LSM is used to simulate water and energy fluxes and states, which are transformed into drought categories using percentiles over the continental U.S. from 1979 to 2017. Leaf Area Index (LAI) observations are assimilated into the dynamic vegetation scheme of Noah-MP. A weekly operational drought monitor (the U.S. Drought Monitor) is used for the evaluation. The results show that LAI assimilation into Noah-MP’s dynamic vegetation scheme improves the model’s ability to represent drought, particularly over cropland areas. LAI assimilation improves the simulation of the drought category, detection of drought conditions, and reduces the instances of drought false alarms. The assimilation of LAI in these locations not only corrects model errors in the simulation of vegetation, but also can help to represent unmodeled physical processes such as irrigation towards improved simulation of agricultural drought.

David M Mocko↗

Drought Monitoring with Drones: A Hundred Fields at a Time

Drought frequency and severity are likely to increase due to global warming. Droughts already have a substantial negative influence on agriculture and the economy and finding ways to reduce their effects could have a monumental impact. Although NASA already has satellites deployed to collect drought data, these satellites are more for global drought indexing than local. To alleviate droughts on a local level, this paper proposes the use of drones to map soil moisture, plant health, and other drought indicators. The proposed drone design is a fixed-wing UAV equipped with a hyperspectral camera, a LiDAR sensor, and an array of weather sensors. These tools will permit it to reliably capture the necessary data to enhance suggestions on improving drought management practices. The collected data from the drones will be deployable in many ways, including for agricultural and non-agricultural applications. The hyperspectral camera has applications in monitoring the health of crops within a field to direct relief measures to the crops most in need. Thermal and LiDAR imaging can be deployed for locating leaks, predicting shortages of water bodies, and determining a field’s water needs. To implement a drought-monitoring drone, the recommended steps include building a prototype drone design that is equipped with the outlined instruments. The prototype drone could then be deployed to collect training data to guide a neural network that would provide interpretations and predictions from the data for users. After the prototype design is iterated upon, it will be ready for deployment and inform water management methods to serve the world in our battle against drought.

climate change↗

Metabolomic, photoprotective, and photosynthetic acclimatory responses to post‐flowering drought in sorghum

Abstract Climate change is globally affecting rainfall patterns, necessitating the improvement of drought tolerance in crops. Sorghum bicolor is a relatively drought‐tolerant cereal. Functional stay‐green sorghum genotypes can maintain green leaf area and efficient grain filling during terminal post‐flowering water deprivation, a period of ~10 weeks. To obtain molecular insights into these characteristics, two drought‐tolerant genotypes, BTx642 and RTx430, were grown in replicated control and terminal post‐flowering drought field plots in California's Central Valley. Photosynthetic, photoprotective, and water dynamics traits were quantified and correlated with metabolomic data collected from leaves, stems, and roots at multiple timepoints during control and drought conditions. Physiological and metabolomic data were then compared to longitudinal RNA sequencing data collected from these two genotypes. The unique metabolic and transcriptomic response to post‐flowering drought in sorghum supports a role for the metabolite galactinol in controlling photosynthetic activity through regulating stomatal closure in post‐flowering drought. Additionally, in the functional stay‐green genotype BTx642, photoprotective responses were specifically induced in post‐flowering drought, supporting a role for photoprotection in the molecular response associated with the functional stay‐green trait. From these insights, new pathways are identified that can be targeted to maximize yields under growth conditions with limited water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COST1 regulates autophagy to control plant drought tolerance

Plants balance their competing requirements for growth and stress tolerance via a sophisticated regulatory circuitry that controls responses to the external environments. We have identified a plant-specific gene, COST1 (constitutively stressed 1), that is required for normal plant growth but negatively regulates drought resistance by influencing the autophagy pathway. An Arabidopsis thaliana cost1 mutant has decreased growth and increased drought tolerance, together with constitutive autophagy and increased expression of drought-response genes, while overexpression of COST1 confers drought hypersensitivity and reduced autophagy. The COST1 protein is degraded upon plant dehydration, and this degradation is reduced upon treatment with inhibitors of the 26S proteasome or autophagy pathways. The drought resistance of a cost1 mutant is dependent on an active autophagy pathway, but independent of other known drought signaling pathways, indicating that COST1 acts through regulation of autophagy. In addition, COST1 colocalizes to autophagosomes with the autophagosome marker ATG8e and the autophagy adaptor NBR1, and affects the level of ATG8e protein through physical interaction with ATG8e, indicating a pivotal role in direct regulation of autophagy. We propose a model in which COST1 represses autophagy under optimal conditions, thus allowing plant growth. Under drought, COST1 is degraded, enabling activation of autophagy and suppression of growth to enhance drought tolerance. Our research places COST1 as an important regulator controlling the balance between growth and stress responses via the direct regulation of autophagy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Canopy responses of Swedish primary and secondary forests to the 2018 drought

Boreal forest ecosystems are predicted to experience more frequent summer droughts due to climate change, posing a threat to future forest health and carbon sequestration. Forestry is a regionally dominant land use where the managed secondary forests are typically even-aged forests with low structural and tree species diversity. It is not well known if managed secondary forests and unmanaged primary forests respond to drought differently in part because the location of primary, unmanaged, forests has remained largely unknown. Here we employed a unique map detailing over 300 primary forests in Sweden. We studied impacts of the 2018 nationwide drought by extracting and analyzing a high-resolution remote sensing vegetation index over the primary forests and over buffer zones around the primary forests representing secondary forests. We controlled for topographical variations linked to soil moisture, which was a strong determinant of drought responses, and analyzed Landsat-derived EVI2 anomalies during the drought year from a multiyear non-drought baseline. We found that primary forests were less affected by the drought compared to secondary forests. Our results indicate that forestry may exacerbate the impact of drought in a future climate with more frequent and extreme hydroclimatic events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drought Shifts Sorghum Root Metabolite and Microbiome Profiles and Enriches for Pipecolic Acid

Plant-associated microbial communities shift in composition as a result of environmental perturbations, such as drought. It has been shown that Actinobacteria are enriched in plant roots and rhizospheres during drought stress. However, the correlations between microbiome dynamics and plant response to drought are poorly understood. Here we apply a combination of bacterial community composition analysis and plant metabolite profiling in Sorghum bicolor roots, rhizospheres, and soil during drought and drought recovery to investigate potential contributions of host metabolism to shifts in bacterial composition. Our results provide a detailed view of metabolic shifts across the plant root during drought and show that the response to rewatering differs between root and soil; additionally, we identify drought-responsive metabolites that are highly correlated with the observed changes in Actinobacteria abundance. Furthermore, we find that pipecolic acid is a drought-enriched metabolite in sorghum roots, and that exogenous application of pipecolic acid inhibits root growth. Finally, we show that this activity functions independent of the systemic acquired resistance pathway and has the potential to impact Actinobacterial taxa within the root microbiome.

165 RRNA↗

Observing, Measuring, and Assessing the Consequences of Snow Drought

Warmer and shorter winters from climate change will reduce snowpacks in most seasonally snow-covered regions of the world, with consequences for freshwater availability in spring and summer when people and ecosystems demand water most. Recent record-low snowpacks, such as those in the winters of 2013/14 and 2014/15 in the western United States, have led to a surge in research on “snow droughts,” which are pointed to as harbingers of global warming that pose significant societal hazards. Yet, despite the importance of understanding snow droughts to best prepare for their attendant impacts, the concept remains amorphous, with no agreed-upon definition of what they are, how best to measure them, and how such snow droughts connect to warm-season impacts. These knowledge gaps limit our understanding of the risks posed by snow droughts in the present and future, and thus our preparedness for their differential impacts on freshwater resources. To address these issues, we compile a hemispheric ensemble of in situ, satellite, and reanalysis snowpack datasets. We use this ensemble to evaluate the scientific challenges and uncertainties arising from differences in defining and measuring snow droughts, and to identify opportunities to leverage this information to better understand the significance of snow droughts. We show that a clearer quantification of what constitutes a snow drought, including its uncertainties, improves our ability to anticipate costly and disruptive warm-season droughts, which is vital for informing risk management and adaptation to changing snow regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phloem Exudate Protein Profiles during Drought and Recovery Reveal Abiotic Stress Responses in Tomato Vasculature

Drought is the leading cause of agricultural yield loss among all abiotic stresses, and the link between water deficit and phloem protein contents is relatively unexplored. Here we collected phloem exudates from Solanum lycopersicum leaves during periods of drought stress and recovery. Our analysis identified 2558 proteins, the most abundant of which were previously localized to the phloem. Independent of drought, enrichment analysis of the total phloem exudate protein profiles from all samples suggests that the protein content of phloem sap is complex, and includes proteins that function in chaperone systems, branched-chain amino acid synthesis, trehalose metabolism, and RNA silencing. We observed 169 proteins whose abundance changed significantly within the phloem sap, either during drought or recovery. Proteins that became significantly more abundant during drought include members of lipid metabolism, chaperone-mediated protein folding, carboxylic acid metabolism, abscisic acid signaling, cytokinin biosynthesis, and amino acid metabolism. Conversely, proteins involved in lipid signaling, sphingolipid metabolism, cell wall organization, carbohydrate metabolism, and a mitogen-activated protein kinase are decreased during drought. Our experiment has achieved an in-depth profiling of phloem sap protein contents during drought stress and recovery that supports previous findings and provides new evidence that multiple biological processes are involved in drought adaptation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Projected Changes in Early Summer Ridging and Drought Over the Central Plains

Early summer (May–June–July; MJJ) droughts over the Central Plains are often caused by atmospheric ridging, but it is uncertain if these events will increase in frequency or if their influence on drought severity will change in a warming world. Here, we use tree-ring based reconstructions (1500–2020 CE) of MJJ ridging and 0–200 cm soil moisture with six CMIP6 model ensembles to investigate the response of Central Plains drought dynamics to a moderate warming scenario (SSP2-4.5). By the end of the 21st century (2071–2100), precipitation increases in most models during the preceding months (February–March–April), especially over the northern part of the Central Plains, while changes during MJJ are non-robust. By contrast, vapor pressure deficit increases strongly in all models, resulting in five of the six models projecting robust median soil moisture drying and all six models projecting more rapid seasonal soil moisture declines during the transition into the summer. Major ridging events increase in frequency in some models, and there is strong agreement across all models that when ridging events do occur, they will cause more severe soil moisture drought and seasonal drying at the end of the 21st century. The median multi-model response also indicates, by the end of the 21st century, that the Central Plains will experience a three-fold increase in the risk of drought events equivalent to the most extreme droughts of the last 500 years. Our results demonstrate that even moderate warming is likely to increase early summer soil moisture drought severity and risk over the Central Plains, even in the absence of robust precipitation declines, and that drought responses to major atmospheric ridging events will be significantly stronger.

Drought↗

How does drought affect residential water demand and price elasticity?

Urban water scarcity is an important social and economic concern, particularly as the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts is increasing in many regions. We consider whether drought induces changes to water demand and the price elasticity of demand for water that may last beyond a drought’s official end date. If drought shocks prompt long-term changes in water demand behavior, and these changes occur at broad geographic scale, they could have important implications for modeling adaptive responses to water scarcity. We assemble a novel dataset on residential water demand and pricing in the western United States to test empirically for effects of drought on water demand and price elasticity. We perform our analysis with aggregate quantity, price, and drought data, accounting for endogenous prices under increasing-block water tariffs and using both average and marginal water fees in estimating water demand functions. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that households may become less price-sensitive after exposure to drought. However, we find no systematic evidence of long-run, drought-related reductions in water demand, itself.

demand hardening↗

Drought increases microbial allocation to stress tolerance but with few tradeoffs among community-level traits

Climate change will increase soil drying, altering microbial communities via increasing water stress and decreasing resource availability. The responses of these microbial communities to changing environments could be governed by physiological tradeoffs between high yield, resource acquisition, and stress tolerance (YAS framework). We leveraged a unique field experiment that manipulates both drought and carbon availability across two years and three land uses, and we measured both physiological (with bioassays) and genetic (with metagenomics) microbial traits at the community level to test the following hypotheses: 1. Drought increases microbial allocation to stress tolerance functions, at both physiological and genetic levels. 2. Because microbes are resource-limited under drought, increased carbon will enable greater expression of stress tolerance. 3. All three key life history traits described in the YAS framework will trade off. Drought did increase microbial physiological investment in stress tolerance (measured via trehalose production), but we saw few other changes in microbial communities under drought. Adding carbon to plots increased resource acquisition (measured via enzyme activity and resource acquisition gene abundance) and stress tolerance (trehalose assay), but did so in both drought and average rainfall environments. Here, we found little evidence of trait tradeoffs, as a negative correlation between rRNA copy number and resource acquisition gene abundance was the only significant negative correlation between traits that we found that was consistent across years (for physiological or genetic traits). In summary, we found C addition, and to a lesser extent, drought, altered microbial community function and functional genes. However, resources did not alter drought response in a way that was consistent with theory of life history tradeoffs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Earlier Ecological Drought Detection by Involving the Interaction of Phenology and Eco-Physiological Function

Meteorological drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) are frequently used to diagnose “ecological drought,” despite the fact that they were not explicitly designed for this purpose. More recently developed indices like the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), which is based on the degree of coupling between actual to potential evapotranspiration, may better capture dynamic plant response to moisture limitations. However, the skill of these indices at describing plant water stress is rarely evaluated at sub-seasonal timescales over which drought evolves. Moreover, it remains unclear how variability in phenological timing impacts and complicates early drought detection. Here, we compared the ability of ESI and SPEI to reflect the dynamics of ecological drought in forests and grasslands, based on anomalies of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), surface conductance (G s , a proxy for stomatal conductance), soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. ESI performed better than SPEI in capturing the dynamics of GPP and G s , but still missed early ecological drought signals due to biases linked to earlier onset of spring leaf development. Thus, we developed a modified variant of the ESI (ESI LAI ) that accounts for the complicating effects of phenological shifts in leaf area index (LAI). The ESI LAI detected drought onset up to 7–10 weeks earlier than SPEI and ESI. Additionally, drought onset dates determined from ESI LAI are close to (±2 weeks) the dates determined from LAI-corrected anomalies of G s , and GPP, as well as the onset dates of soil water deficit and atmospheric aridity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes

Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.

Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗

Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

Abstract Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood, extent, and severity of compound droughts across ten regions that have similar precipitation seasonality and cover important breadbaskets and vulnerable populations. Although a majority of compound droughts are associated with El Niños, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and cold phases of the Atlantic Niño and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) can substantially modulate their characteristics. Cold TNA conditions have the largest amplifying effect on El Niño-related compound droughts. While the probability of compound droughts is ~3 times higher during El Niño conditions relative to neutral conditions, it is ~7 times higher when cold TNA and El Niño conditions co-occur. The probability of widespread and severe compound droughts is also amplified by a factor of ~3 and ~2.5 during these co-occurring modes relative to El Niño conditions alone. Our analysis demonstrates that co-occurrences of these modes result in widespread precipitation deficits across the tropics by inducing anomalous subsidence, and reducing lower-level moisture convergence over the study regions. Our results emphasize the need for considering interactions within the larger climate system in characterizing compound drought risks rather than focusing on teleconnections from individual modes. Understanding the physical drivers and characteristics of compound droughts has important implications for predicting their occurrence and characterizing their impacts on interconnected societal systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uncoupling differential water usage from drought resistance in a dwarf Arabidopsis mutant

Abstract Understanding the molecular and physiological mechanisms of how plants respond to drought is paramount to breeding more drought-resistant crops. Certain mutations or allelic variations result in plants with altered water-use requirements. To correctly identify genetic differences which confer a drought phenotype, plants with different genotypes must be subjected to equal levels of drought stress. Many reports of advantageous mutations conferring drought resistance do not control for soil water content (SWC) variations across genotypes and may therefore need to be re-examined. Here, we reassessed the drought phenotype of the Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) dwarf mutant, chiquita1-1 (chiq1-1, also called constitutively stressed 1 (cost1)), by growing mutant seedlings together with the wild-type to ensure uniform soil water availability across genotypes. Our results demonstrate that the dwarf phenotype conferred by loss of CHIQ1 function results in constitutively lower water usage per plant, but not increased drought resistance. Our study provides an easily reproducible, low-cost method to measure and control for SWC and to compare drought-resistant genotypes more accurately.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗