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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Building Resilience: Maintaining Energy Efficiency and Thermal Comfort During Power Outages in Cold Climates

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and cold snaps, present significant challenges to building energy performance and occupant comfort. Highly correlated with climate events are widespread long duration power interruptions that may affect thousands of buildings and millions of customers. This study evaluates the impact of building energy performance and occupant thermal comfort in medium-sized office buildings in a cold climate region. Using energy models representing pre-1980 and 2019 vintages, simulations were conducted to assess energy performance under typical weather conditions and occupant thermal comfort during power interrupted extreme cold snap and heatwave climate events under both current 2020s and future 2050s weather conditions. The results show a projected 33% increase in cooling energy demand and a 19% reduction in heating energy by 2050. Findings reveal that older buildings are more susceptible to cold discomfort during cold snaps, while modern airtight buildings are more vulnerable to overheating during heatwaves. Various passive energy efficiency measures, such as improved infiltration control, thermal windows, solar-controlled windows, and cool envelopes, were evaluated for their ability to mitigate thermal discomforts. Solar controlled windows and weatherstripping contribute to reducing cold thermal discomfort by 21% during a power-interrupted cold snap. Solar-controlled windows were found to reduce hot thermal discomfort by 34% during a future power-interrupted heatwave. The study highlights the importance of targeted retrofitting strategies to enhance thermal resilience, especially during power outages, to ensure occupant safety and comfort during extreme climate events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of fuel film formation and soot emissions in a GDI engine during cold-start with Split-injection strategies

This study investigates the impact of fuel-film formation on engine-out soot emissions in a gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine under cold-start conditions. Split-injection strategies were applied by varying the number of injections, injection duration, and total fuel quantity to affect wall wetting and control the average in-cylinder equivalence ratio. A combined experimental and numerical approach was employed to analyze fuel-film deposition, combustion efficiency, and engine-out soot and unburnt hydrocarbons (UHC) emissions. In particular, fuel film distribution estimated by means of non-reacting, 3-D, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, together with experimentally measured soot data, were used to investigate fuel film formation and its role in soot generation. In the experiments, a skip-fired engine control strategy was applied to mimic the transient nature of engine cold-start operation. The results indicate that, under the same total number of injections, increasing the average in-cylinder equivalence ratio through longer injection durations improves combustion stability, as indicated by the decrease of the coefficient of variation of IMEP n (Net Indicated Mean Effective Pressure) from 6.0 % to 0.6 %. However, this strategy leads to higher soot emissions, which increased by nearly an order of magnitude, primarily due to enhanced wall-film formation. In contrast, increasing the number of injections while maintaining a constant equivalence ratio significantly impacts fuel-film deposition and, consequently, soot emissions, with a fivefold reduction of the measured engine-out soot, decreasing from 3.5 mg to 0.7 mg. A soot-film correlation was developed and achieved a high coefficient of determination (r 2 = 0.95) and was further extended to account for spark timing effects. These findings confirm the effectiveness of split-injection for avoiding wall film formation and soot emissions, and the critical role of fuel film in soot generation, supporting the hypothesis that pool fires play a crucial role in contributing to soot formation under these cold-start conditions. In conclusion, the study also indicates the value of a predictive soot-film correlation for developing cold-start emission control strategies.

Engine Cold-start↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermoelectric heating and cooling–integrated dishwasher with thermal energy storage

Household dishwashers must address several performance goals: maximize washing and drying performance, while minimizing cycle duration, energy consumption, and water consumption. This study develops and examines a novel thermoelectric heating and cooling (TEHC) system with thermal energy storage applied to a household dishwasher (DW), aiming to improve the energy and drying performance of a commercially-available dishwasher while maintaining its washing performance, water consumption, and cycle duration. Experimental testing conducted on the novel TEHC-DW system demonstrates an 8.7% reduction in total energy consumption, lowering the per-cycle usage to 0.952 kWh, and a 40% reduction in energy consumption for internal water heating. The novel TEHC-DW system also demonstrates better drying performance, shortening the drying time by 42% to reach the same remaining moisture content as a commercially-available system. In addition, a resistance-capacitance network model is developed that predicts total drying time, total energy consumption, and the highest temperature reached in the tub (53.4 °C). The model accuracy is validated with experimental data (within ±1 K), and the model functions as a design tool via a parametric study to evaluate the next-generation design and the effect of the number of thermoelectric modules and thermoelectric driving force (i.e., current). Overall, this study demonstrates the potential for TEHC technology to improve energy efficiency and drying performance in household dishwashers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid power plants: An effective way of decreasing loss-of-load expectation

Diversifying variable renewable resources by combining wind, solar photovoltaic, and battery assets in a hybrid power plant can increase renewable energy usage efficiency and improve system flexibility, particularly in distributed energy systems. However, the resilience impact of these systems, particularly outage mitigation, can be difficult to quantify due to uncertainty in resource, energy demand, and outage occurrence. Here, this study outlines a framework to quantify the incremental benefit of hybrid power plant assets for reducing loss-of-load expectation during random outage events. Hybrid power plant performance during outages (considering varying duration and severity) is simulated using a Monte Carlo methodology to reflect uncertainty associated with renewable resource, load demand, and outage timing. Results demonstrate the additional incremental value from increasingly hybrid designs, in which relative capacities of wind, solar photovoltaic, and storage assets contribute to lower loss-of-load expectation than the constituent technologies would alone. The value of added wind or solar capacity increases as the plant composition approaches an equal split. The value of added battery capacity depends on the outage duration and severity, but the first 50 MWh of added storage capacity is the most valuable for reducing the loss-of-load expectation for all plant designs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid combustion modeling approach for turbulent jet ignition in natural-gas pre-chamber spark-ignition engines at high EGR

Here, this study presented a hybrid modeling approach for simulating turbulent jet ignition and combustion processes in a natural-gas pre-chamber spark-ignition engine operating under exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) diluted conditions. In-depth analyses of experimental data and simulation results from previous work [Chinnathambi et al., ICEF2021-67836; Kim et al., Fuel 409: 137815, 2026] revealed two key findings: (i) the magnitude of pressure difference between the pre-chamber and main chamber ($∆P_{PC-MC}$) was positively correlated with the combustion duration from the moment of $∆P_{PC-MC}=0$ to the point of 5% mass fraction burned, with larger $∆P_{PC-MC}$ associated with longer duration; and (ii) the turbulent combustion regime in the main chamber transitioned from the broken reaction zone to the corrugated flamelet regime, with the Karlovitz number exceeding 100 immediately after turbulent hot jets were ejected from nozzles, coinciding with observed local extinction events. To accurately simulate the entire combustion process, a hybrid approach was developed under Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes framework, combining the G-equation model for pre-chamber combustion with the multi-zone well-stirred reactor approach and a turbulence-chemistry interaction (TCI) submodel for main chamber combustion. The TCI submodel accounted for the attenuation of reaction rates due to turbulent strain and modeled local extinction by suppressing reaction rates under certain flow and flame conditions. When applied to three EGR rate conditions toward the dilution limit, the hybrid modeling approach accurately reproduced experimental data in terms of cylinder pressure, apparent heat release rate, and the observed positive correlation, including the delayed onset of main chamber combustion—a feature not captured by existing combustion models.

computational fluid dynamics simulation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and Experimental Validation of a Direct-Contact Counter-Flow Fluidized Bed Heat Exchanger for Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Applications

Particle-based thermal energy storage (TES) systems are an emerging energy storage technology. The technological advances have reduced costs, making TES more competitive and reliable in the marketplace but an efficient and reliable operation is heavily dependent on coherent heat transfer between air to particles or vice versa. The particle-based TES technologies provide an intermediate system that can store energy for short (0-10 h), long (10-200 h) and seasonal (> 200 h) timescales. The TES systems store energy by converting electricity to thermal energy; electricity can be directly sourced intermittent generation technologies and/or the grid, helping manage peak loads and other mismatches in supply and demand. The overall efficiency of the TES system depends on the performance of system components (particle storage silos and particle transfer mechanism etc.). The particle heat exchanger is one of the key system components that affects the system efficiency. The pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger (PFB HX) performance is challenging to predict due to the chaotic behavior of particle and fluid interaction. This research presents a computational study of a novel direct-contact, counter-flow and air-to-particles PFB HX, that contributes in advancing the particle-based long-duration TES technologies. For the current analysis an unsteady Eulerian-Eulerian CFD model was developed and validated against experiments performed at the National Laboratory of the Rockies for two particle sizes (600 ..mu..m and 825 ..mu..m ). Following validation, parametric simulations were conducted to evaluate the effects of interphase drag models (Syamlal-O'Brien and Gidaspow), particle size, bed height and the influence of a frictional-viscosity term on hydrodynamics and heat transfer between the air & particles. The key findings from the analysis are: (1) for the studied operating window Syamlal-O'Brien provides superior agreement with measured gas temperatures (errors generally < 10%) while Gidaspow shows large deviations for the coarse particle case; (2) model predictions are most sensitive in the lower 0.2 m above the air distributor where bubble initiation and local mixing dominate interphase heat transfer; (3) representation of the distributor (number of inlet ports) materially affects predicted local mixing and temperature stratification; and (4) the Eulerian-Eulerian framework reproduces bulk thermal trends but shows regime dependent limitations for coarse particles, motivating mesoscale informed closures for scale-up analysis for future studies. These results provide validated guidance for drag selection and distributor design in particle-based thermal energy storage applications. Collectively, the validated model and parametric results quantify key drivers of PHB-HX performance and provide practical guidance for design and optimization. The results provide confidence in the model predictability and provide a step forward to improve on heat exchange performance. The demonstrated performance and modeling approach support the deployment and further development of this novel PHB-HX concept for robust, particle-based long-duration thermal energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The power reliability event simulator tool (PRESTO): A novel approach to distribution system reliability analysis and applications

The growing interest in onsite solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems is partially motivated by customer concerns regarding grid reliability. However, accurately assessing the effectiveness of PVESS in mitigating these interruptions requires a comprehensive understanding of location-specific outage patterns and the ability to simulate realistic scenarios. To address the gap, we introduce the Power Reliability Event Simulation TOol (PRESTO), the first publicly available tool that simulates location-specific power interruptions at the county level. PRESTO allows for a more realistic assessment of system reliability by considering the unpredictability and location-specific patterns of power interruptions. We applied PRESTO in a case study of a single-family home across three U.S. counties, examining the performance of a solar photovoltaic system with 10kWh of battery storage during short-duration power interruptions. Our findings show that this system reliably met 93% of energy demand for essential non-heating and cooling loads, fully serving these loads in 84% of events, despite the constraints of daily time-of-use bill management which limits the battery's state-of-charge reserve. However, when heating and cooling loads were included, system performance decreased significantly, with only 70% of demand met and full service in 43% of events. These results highlight the challenges of using solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems for short-duration outages, emphasizing the need to consider factors like battery size and grid charging strategies to improve reliability. Our study demonstrates the practical applications of PRESTO, providing valuable insights into potential mitigation strategies including grid charging and optimizing battery size.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. Further, the spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Additive manufacturing of AISI M2 tool steel by binder jetting (BJ): Investigation of microstructural and mechanical properties

The presented research demonstrates for the first time the successful processing of AISI M2 tool steel by binder jetting, a promising additive manufacturing technique capable of producing complex shapes with minimal residual stresses and isotropic properties. The optimal printing parameters were explored by varying processing parameters such as the binder saturation (45 %–105 %), binder set time (0 to 10 s), targeted bed temperature (50–60 °C), oscillator (2600–2750 rpm), recoater (20–28 mm/s), and roller speeds (200–300 rpm). Microstructural characterization and evaluation of mechanical properties of binder jetted parts were performed using x-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) to study their chemical composition, powder morphology, microstructure, carbide morphologies, relative density, hardness, compressive strength, and ductility. Two powder sizes (5 and 10 μm) were used, and sintering was performed at varying temperatures (1270, 1280, and 1300 °C) and durations (60 and 120 min), followed by a furnace, air, and water cooling. An optimum hardness of ~970 HV was obtained when parts were sintered at 1270 °C for 60 min, followed by water quenching. Impressive compressive strength of ~ 3580 MPa was observed in the sample sintered at 1280 °C for 60 min duration, followed by air cooling. Furnace-cooled parts showed the highest density of ~95 %, whereas the relative density of air- and water-cooled parts varied between ~91 to 93.50 %, respectively. The microstructure of sintered samples revealed the formation of M 6 C stable carbide, M 2 C metastable carbide, MC as a secondary carbide, and a-Fe matrix, which contributed to the observed increase in mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A parametric study of slow dynamic nonlinear elasticity with comparisons to models

Several phenomenological models that aspire to quantitative description of anomalous nonlinear mesoscopic elasticity are reviewed and compared with laboratory measurements. This class of nonlinearity, best known perhaps for slow dynamics and aging, is seen widely in imperfectly consolidated granular solids but is not well understood. Typical slow dynamic tests show that a modest conditioning oscillatory "pump" strain depresses material stiffness, which then recovers like the logarithm of time after conditioning ceases. Several phenomenological models based on physical arguments have been proposed that predict the material stiffness response to arbitrary pump strain histories during conditioning and recovery. Approximate closed form and numerical solutions to the models are presented that predict the quantitative influence of three key pump parameters: the pump's strain amplitude, the pump's strain rate, and the pump’s duration. Laboratory measurements on Berea sandstone, concrete and a confined single aluminum bead find that slow dynamic responses are linear in pump strain and independent of pump frequency. Measurements also show that, after pump-off, stiffness recovers over times far longer than the pump duration. These observations and others are compared to model predictions. One of the considered models, based on a picture of fast brittle damage and slow healing, successfully matches all these behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phosphonic-Acid-Reinforced Polymer Hole Transport Layers for Deployable p-i-n Perovskite Photovoltaics

The long-term durability prospects of halide perovskite solar cells are rapidly improving; however, the interface between the hole transport layer (HTL) and the perovskite remains a source of degradation. Alone, polymer- or carbazole-based HTLs suffer from incomplete coverage of the underlying indium tin oxide glass, leading to degradation and compromised performance. Here, we show a multi-HTL approach whereby a polymer HTL is reinforced using a phosphonic acid modification leading to better protection of the buried perovskite interface and more columnar growth of perovskite film, resulting in an ~40-mV open-circuit voltage (VOC) improvement indicative of suppressed interfacial recombination across multiple p-i-n device architectures. Solar cells with this reinforced HTL show higher tolerance to several accelerated stress tests. We report, among the best durabilities for unencapsulated cells, a T90 ~3,000 h (T80 ~5,900 h) at 65 degrees C under continuous 1.2 sun AM 1.5G illumination and maximum power point tracking, representing a nearly 4-fold increase compared with [2-(9H-carbazol-9-yl)ethyl]phosphonic acid (2PACz)-only devices. Furthermore, we deployed a device with this reinforced HTL on a cube satellite, with long-duration operational space testing results exceeding T80 for the complete mission duration of ~100 days in low Earth orbit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the interplay between pilot fuel mixing and auto-ignition chemistry in hydrogen-enriched environment

The diesel-piloted dual-fuel compression ignition combustion strategy is well-suited to accelerate the decarbonization of transportation by adopting hydrogen as a renewable energy carrier into the existing internal combustion engine with minimal engine modifications. Despite the simplicity of engine modification, many questions remain unanswered regarding the optimal pilot injection strategy for reliable ignition with minimum pilot fuel consumption. The present study uses a single-cylinder heavy-duty optical engine to explore the phenomenology and underlying mechanisms governing the pilot fuel ignition and the subsequent combustion of a premixed hydrogen-air charge. The engine is operated in a dual-fuel mode with hydrogen premixed into the engine intake charge with a direct pilot injection of n-heptane as a diesel pilot fuel surrogate. Optical diagnostics used to visualize in-cylinder combustion phenomena include high-speed IR imaging of the pilot fuel spray evolution as well as high-speed HCHO* and OH* chemiluminescence as indicators of low-temperature and high-temperature heat release, respectively. Three pilot injection strategies are compared to explore the effects of pilot fuel mass, injection pressure, and injection duration on the probability and repeatability of successful ignition. The thermodynamic and imaging data analysis supported by zero-dimensional chemical kinetics simulations revealed a complex interplay between the physical and chemical processes governing the pilot fuel ignition process in a hydrogen containing charge. Hydrogen strongly inhibits the ignition of pilot fuel mixtures and therefore requires longer injection duration to create zones with sufficiently high pilot fuel concentration for successful ignition. Results show that ignition typically tends to rely on stochastic pockets with high pilot fuel concentration, which results in poor repeatability of combustion and frequent misfiring. In conclusion, this work has improved the understanding on how the unique chemical properties of hydrogen pose a challenge for maximization of hydrogen’s energy share in hydrogen dual-fuel engines and highlights a potential mitigation pathway.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the economic costs of power outages owing to extreme events: A systematic review

Quantifying the economic cost of long-duration power outages is crucial to justifying investments in resiliency and reliability improvements. However, extensive study on the subject complicates the identification of power outage costs and determining the most suitable approach to quantify them for an individual, specific facility, particularly in the context of extreme events. Here, this research provides a systematic review of economic studies estimating the impact of environmental disasters at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. Of 326 articles, evaluating the costs of power outages in extreme events, this work identified 22 studies that attempted to quantify the economic costs. These findings indicate that quantifying power outage costs lacks standardization, posing challenges for comparing different studies. Most analyses aiming to quantify these costs for utilities, sectors, and the overall economy rely on outdated survey data, which offer generalized rather than specific cost estimations. The costs of power outages exhibit a significant dependence on factors such as the sector involved, the type of customer affected, and the outage duration. To quantify industry costs, the research in this study suggests that using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's online, open-access Customer Damage Function Calculator is the best option for individual-level assessments of industries, hospitals, offices, education centers, and similar facilities. However, the Interruption Cost Estimate Calculator can estimate outage costs across industrial, commercial, and residential sectors for macroeconomic outcomes. Finally, this article discusses the relative strengths of these methods and tools and the potential directions for future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Degradation Dynamics of Perovskite Solar Cells Under Fixed Reverse-Current Injection

Previous studies of reverse-bias stability in perovskite solar cells have focused primarily on voltage-controlled tests. Here we instead investigate perovskite solar cell degradation under well-defined, constant reverse-current stress. We show that the choice of hole-transport layer dictates the dominant degradation pathway: cells using thick poly(triphenylamine) (PTAA) layers can tolerate high reverse bias but quickly undergo catastrophic breakdown under fixed reverse current near their one-sun maximum power-point. In contrast, cells modified with phosphonic-acid interface layer MeO-2PACz, with poorer indium-doped tin oxide (ITO) coverage compared to PTAA, exhibit gradual and recoverable degradation under certain stress and recovery conditions. For MeO-2PACz devices, degradation increases with both current magnitude and duration. Importantly, when normalized by injected charge (current times duration), lower currents applied over longer times cause more degradation than higher currents over shorter periods. Here, combining electrical measurements with spatially resolved photoluminescence imaging, our observations support an ion- and charge-mediated interfacial electrochemical degradation mode.

Degradation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

Abstract Historical records in the Delaware River Basin reveal complex and spatially diverse flood generating mechanisms influenced by the region's mountains‐to‐plains gradients. This study focuses on predicting future flood hazards and understanding the underlying drivers of changes across the region. Using a process‐based hydrological model, we analyzed the hydrometeorological condition of each historical and future flood event. For each event, at the subbasin scale, we identified the dominant flood generating mechanism, including snowmelt, rain‐on‐snow, short‐duration rain, and long‐duration rain. The rain‐induced floods are further categorized based on the soil's Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) before the event, whether dry, normal, or wet. Our historical analysis suggests that rain‐on‐snow is the primary flood mechanism of the Upper Basin. Although most frequent, the magnitude of rain‐on‐snow floods is often less severe than short rain floods. In contrast, historical floods in the Lower Basin are primarily caused by short rain under normal AMC. Given the uncertainties in climate projections, we used an ensemble of future climate scenarios for flood projections. Despite variations in regional climate projections, coherent perspectives emerge: the region will shift toward a warmer, wetter climate, with a projected intensification of extreme floods. The Upper Basin is projected to experience a marked decrease in rain‐on‐snow floods, but a substantial increase in short rain floods with wet AMC. The largest increase in flood magnitude will be driven by short rains with wet AMC in the Upper Basin and by short rains with normal AMC in the Lower Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Relationships Between Mesoscale Convective System Properties and Midlevel Dynamic Perturbations

Abstract Past studies implicate dynamic anomalies operating on subsynoptic scales as a possible initiation source of summertime (July–August) mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central United States during northwesterly flow regimes. To improve our understanding of warm season MCSs occurring over a variety of flow regimes, we track midlevel (600 hPa) vorticity perturbations (“MPs”) as 2D objects comprising wavelengths of 500–2,500 km over the central US from May–August of 2004–2021. We perform statistical analysis of relationships between metrics of MP objects (e.g., duration, size, intensity, and origin) and high‐resolution MCS precipitation characteristics (e.g., duration, total rainfall, rain coverage area, and motion) that occur while collocated with or in the absence of MPs to discern predictive capability of background dynamic features on storm precipitation potential. Although the majority of MPs collocated with MCS initiation occur during July–August, a significant number (40%) occur between May and June. Northwesterly flow MPs comprise a relative minority of our events, suggesting that MPs can affect MCSs across a variety of warm season flow regimes. MPs affecting MCSs initiated primarily over the high plains near the central Rockies. Only approximately 20% of tracked MCS initiation events were collocated with MPs, but these storms produced ∼25% greater lifetime rainfall and coverage area, and ∼29% more stratiform rain than non‐MP‐induced MCSs. In general, larger and more vigorous MPs resulted in more hydrologically impactful MCSs. The most directly attributable benefit to MCS initiation was from MP‐enhanced background vertical motion and thermodynamic instability (e.g., increased CAPE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

What Technical Choices Matter to Characterize Heat Wave and Cold Snap Events in Support of Bulk Power Grid Reliability Studies?

Extreme weather events, such as Heat Waves (HW) and Cold Snaps (CS), pose significant risks to the power grid. The United States (U.S.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 896 mandates regional coordination standards that account for extreme thermal events. However, the lack of a universal definition for extreme thermal events may lead to inconsistent compliance efforts among neighboring entities, undermining the reliability of the transmission system. This study directly addresses this challenge by systematically evaluating how varying technical choices in defining HW and CS fundamentally impact the characterization and ranking of extreme events for power grid reliability studies. We used 12 event definitions and multiple temperature spatial aggregation approaches to construct historical (1980–2024) regional extreme thermal event libraries across North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) subregions in the conterminous U.S. We examined the sensitivity of event characteristics (e.g., duration, frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage) to different definitions. While some definitions produced similar libraries and top event rankings, definitions based on moving-window-averaged temperatures yielded markedly different characteristics. Spatial aggregation methods had minimal impact on heat wave or cold snap intensity, frequency and duration but significantly influenced spatial coverage. The top events identified across different aggregation methods were consistent, but their ranking order varied. These findings offer critical insights for characterizing and selecting extreme thermal events and for supporting local and cross-regional coordination as required by reliability standards.

Wan, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗