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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

The Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas: Open source soil data and tools supporting blue carbon research and policy

Abstract Quantifying carbon fluxes into and out of coastal soils is critical to meeting greenhouse gas reduction and coastal resiliency goals. Numerous ‘blue carbon’ studies have generated, or benefitted from, synthetic datasets. However, the community those efforts inspired does not have a centralized, standardized database of disaggregated data used to estimate carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we describe a data structure designed to standardize data reporting, maximize reuse, and maintain a chain of credit from synthesis to original source. We introduce version 1.0.0. of the Coastal Carbon Library, a global database of 6723 soil profiles representing blue carbon‐storing systems including marshes, mangroves, tidal freshwater forests, and seagrasses. We also present the Coastal Carbon Atlas, an R‐shiny application that can be used to visualize, query, and download portions of the Coastal Carbon Library. The majority (4815) of entries in the database can be used for carbon stock assessments without the need for interpolating missing soil variables, 533 are available for estimating carbon burial rate, and 326 are useful for fitting dynamic soil formation models. Organic matter density significantly varied by habitat with tidal freshwater forests having the highest density, and seagrasses having the lowest. Future work could involve expansion of the synthesis to include more deep stock assessments, increasing the representation of data outside of the U.S., and increasing the amount of data available for mangroves and seagrasses, especially carbon burial rate data. We present proposed best practices for blue carbon data including an emphasis on disaggregation, data publication, dataset documentation, and use of standardized vocabulary and templates whenever appropriate. To conclude, the Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas serve as a general example of a grassroots F.A.I.R. (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data effort demonstrating how data producers can coordinate to develop tools relevant to policy and decision‐making.

Holmquist, James R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Improved Regional Hydrological Model Performance Using State-Of-The-Science Data-Informed Soil Parameters

Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF-Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients ( r ), reduced biases, and increased Kling-Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well-established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS-adjusted WRF-Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF-Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO-informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured, r increases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre-calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-burnup boiling water reactor steady-state operating conditions and fuel performance analysis

The primary operational costs for existing nuclear reactors are plant operation costs, maintenance costs, and fuel costs, all of which are influenced by the materials used and the design of the reactor core. Optimizing core design parameters—including burnup limits and enrichment levels—can lengthen cycles, reduce outages, reduce reload batch fractions and spent fuel storage requirements, and lower maintenance and operating expenses, thereby enhancing economic viability. Furthermore, developing higher-fidelity tools to simulate these parameters enables better identification of the available margin, improves overall plant safety, and improves the understanding a given plant’s responses to accident scenarios. Here, in the US, much of the research and development focus has traditionally been on pressurized water reactors (PWRs), but boiling water reactors (BWRs) comprise approximately one-third of the US reactor fleet. Modeling and simulation advances for BWRs and PWRs—particularly those achieved through the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program—are crucial to the long-term viability of the light–water reactor industry. A key research area of the high burnup and increased enriched fuel initiative is focused on addressing issues related to postulated loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. NEAMS has dedicated significant effort to enhancing tools to better support BWRs. A current focus is showcasing the BWR framework for high-burnup LOCA analysis. This high-fidelity steady-state analysis is a first step toward demonstrating a best-estimate, pin-by-pin high-burnup BWR LOCA analysis to assess full-core cladding rupture behavior for a representative BWR. The objective of this effort is to provide a modeling capability that will help elucidate and provide a best-estimate evaluation for cladding rupture susceptibility in BWRs. This modeling capability could then be used to prevent and/or mitigate cladding ruptures in postulated accident scenarios without penalizing operational parameters. Additionally, the results of this work will help identify strategies for finding additional margins or potentially limiting cladding ruptures through core design optimizations to enable more efficient core designs.

Capps, Nathan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validating Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (IBM) Tool (Final Report)

The project focused on validating the previously developed Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (GrSG IBM; LaGory et al. 2012, 2021). The objective was to transform this predictive, spatially and temporally explicit model into a portable resource to assist siting/resource managers in proactively assessing the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on the greater sage-grouse. Utilizing a bottom-up, individual-based approach, the GrSG IBM accounts for landscape context and species behavior, aiming to reduce uncertainty in estimating development impacts and support ecologically mindful land-based wind energy development. The validation effort covered approximately 6,540 km 2 near the Seven Mile Hill Wind Project in Wyoming. The GrSG IBM tool, built on the NetLogo platform (Tisue and Wilensky 2004), was executed over a 50-year period, with the analysis focusing on years following a 10-year initialization phase. Key results demonstrated the tool’s biological soundness across five key biological metrics: non-chick age class distribution (older than 10 weeks), adult sex ratio, life expectancy, population size, and overall population growth. For instance, the tool estimated that 58.6% of the non-chick population was reproductively immature, while the reference ranges from 51.4% to 57.8% (Patterson 1952, Rogers 1964). Experts confirmed the tool’s estimate was within a reasonable range for the species. The tool estimated average life expectancy of 1.43 years, while the reference ranges from 0.9 years to 1.1 years (Ammann 1957, Hamerstrom 1949). Experts also supported the model’s life-expectancy estimate as ecologically sound for the species in the study area. In terms of population change, the model estimated an annual shift between a 0.6% decline and a 1.0% increase over 50 years. While the reference suggests 2.9% annual decline in range-wide populations (Cortes et al. 2023), that includes many at-risk populations in South Dakota and Washington, for example. Our study area—in the northeastern part of Carbon County and western-edge of Albany County, Wyoming—is one of the remaining greater sage-grouse habitats supporting some of the most stable populations. Experts confirmed that the range of the annual population change spanning from a 0.6% decline to a 1.0% increase estimated by the tool was reasonable for our study area for this reason and confirmed that aligned with population estimates from existing studies on the greater sage-grouse and wind energy development in the study area (LeBeau et al. 2017a, Smith et al. 2024). Furthermore, the project showed that temporally explicit biological metrics generated by the GrSG IBM tool can complement the USGS’ Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET; Duchardt et al. 2021) by incorporating habitat restoration strategies into seasonal habitat suitability models to visualize population responses over time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying nitrogen loss hotspots and mitigation potential for individual fields in the US Corn Belt with a metamodeling approach

The high productivity in the US Corn Belt is largely enabled by the consumption of millions of tons of manufactured fertilizer. Excessive application of nitrogen (N) fertilizer has been pervasive in this region, and the unrecovered N eventually escaped from croplands in forms of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission and N leaching. Mitigating these negative impacts is hindered by a lack of practical information on where to focus and how much mitigation potential to expect. At a large scale, process-based crop models are the primary tools for predicting variables required by decision making, but their applications are prohibited by expensive computational and data storage costs. To overcome these challenges, we built a series of metamodels to learn the key mechanisms regarding the carbon (C) and N cycle from a well-validated process-based biogeochemical model, ecosys. The trained metamodel captures over 98% of the variability of the ecosys simulated outputs for 99 randomly selected counties in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. To identify hotspots with high mitigation potential, we introduce net societal benefit (NSB) as an indicator for synthesizing the loss in yield and social benefits through emissions and pollutants avoided. Our results show that reducing N fertilizer by 10% leads to 9.8% less N 2 O emissions and 9.6% less N leaching at the cost of 4.9% more SOC depletion and 0.6% yield reduction over the study region. The estimated total annual NSB is $\$395$ M (uncertainty ranges from $\$114$ M to $\$1271$ M), including $\$334$ from social benefits (uncertainty ranges from $\$46$ M to $\$1076$ M), $\$100$ M from saving fertilizer (uncertainty ranges from $\$13$ M to $\$455$ M), and –$\$40$ M due to yield changes (uncertainty ranges from –$\$261$ M to $\$69$ M). For the median scenario, we noted that 20% of the study area accounts for nearly 50% of the NSB, and thus represent hotspot locations for targeted mitigation. Although the uncertainty range suggests that developing such a high-resolution framework is not yet settled and the scenario based estimations are not appropriate to inform the management practices for individual farmers, our efforts shed light on the new generation of analytical tools for life cycle assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Liquid Air Combined Cycle TM for Power and Storage

Liquid Air Combined Cycle (LACC) is a hybrid liquid air energy storage (LAES) system combining energy storage with a combustion turbine to enable large-scale, long-duration energy storage (LDES) while reducing fuel intensity compared to the current state-of-the-art. The LACC technical approach employs proven equipment (cryogenic refrigeration, storage, tanks, pumps, gas turbines, exhaust heat recovery equipment, and turbines) to limit technical risk to a novel organic Rankine cycle (ORC), which was evaluated during this project and found to be feasible. Moreover, LACC storage is safe and relatively compact, to facilitate siting close to loads and within metropolitan regions. The air storage medium is freely available and eliminates supply chain constraints. LACC uses cryogenic air as a storage medium and a gas turbine as the source of heat to drive the discharge process. LACC is distinguished from other LAES technologies by several factors. The charge and discharge processes are decoupled so that cryogenic liquid air is the only storage medium. Other systems also store the higher temperature thermal energy from the liquefaction process in an additional medium. Subsequently, LACC focuses on maximization of the discharge energy and power. LACC also permits the use of commercially available cryogenic refrigeration and storage technologies to increase competition. This project identified product requirements to support market entry and commercialization of the LACC in modular units of approximately 117 MW, each drawing liquid air from customary cryogenic storage tanks capable of storing 75 GWh of dispatchable energy, more than pumped storage hydro or compressed air energy storage technologies. An economic analysis identified the specific liquid air consumption (quantity of liquid air per unit of discharge energy) as a critical parameter. Minimizing the air consumption reduces the specific capital cost ($\$ $/kW) for charging and discharging equipment by reducing the size of piping and turbomachinery. Likewise, the specific cost of energy capacity ($\$ $/kWh) is reduced by increasing the energy deliverable from a given size tank. The cycle was analyzed to identify the optimal equipment selection and operating conditions, which in turn were combined with quotes and cost estimates to calculate the cost of energy from an LACC system. A substantial effort was focused on the ORC, which draws low-temperature heat from the gas turbine exhaust and condenses at low temperature using the cryogenic liquid air as a heat sink. Alternative turbomachinery arrangements were evaluated for feasibility and cost. A technology maturation plan lays out a low-risk approach to development of the novel ORC components and demonstration of LACC technology at pilot scale.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development and Advanced Testing of DPC Cement Fillers

The fillers research and development (R&D) program, mostly experimental, is part of a broader R&D program that includes new process modeling and performance assessment of criticality effects and the overall importance of criticality to repository performance (consequence screening). A literature research and consultation effort with experts by Hardin and Brady (2018) identified several potentially effective and workable filler materials including cements (primarily phosphate based), moltenmetal alloys, and low-temperature glasses. Filler attributes were defined, and the preliminary lists were compared qualitatively. Further comparative analysis will be done (e.g., cost estimates) after experimental screening has narrowed the list of alternatives. The research presented here is focused Sandia’s efforts for the development of phosphate-based cement fillers. Molten metal filler research is an ongoing activity at Oak Ridge National Laboratories and is not discussed herein. After the completion of the FY20 research effort the following cement filler compositions were selected for further experimental development work and advanced testing in FY21: 1. Aluminum phosphate cements (APCs); more specifically aluminum oxide / aluminum phosphate (Al 2 O 3 / AlPO 4 ) cements in which Al 2 O 3 serves as the filler material bound by an AlPO 4 binder formed by the reaction of Al 2 O 3 with various phosphate sources; 2. Wollastonite phosphate cements (WPCs), specifically wollastonite and aluminum or calcium aluminum phosphates in which CaSiO 3 serves as the filler material bound by a calcium phosphate that serves as the binder; and 3. Calcium aluminate phosphate cements (CAPCs) specifically grossite (CaAl 4 O 7 ) and hibonite (CaAl 11 O 18 ) fillers bound by an aluminum phosphate that serves as the binder. This effort focused on the optimization and subsequent processing of these three cements to achieve dense and well-consolidated monolithic samples. Upon completion of the FY21 effort the aluminum phosphate cements (APCs) and the calcium aluminate phosphate cements (CAPCs) show the most promise for advanced testing and scale up. We will begin the work in FY22 focused on testing the performance of these two cements in small scale DPCs as well as advanced materials testing to evaluate cement performance under expected radiation doses and representative post-closure geochemical environments.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Virtual Battery Modeling of Uncertain Electrical Loads using Variational Autoencoder

Effective utilization of flexible loads for grid services, while satisfying end-user preferences and constraints, requires an accurate estimation of the aggregated predictive flexibility offered by the electrical loads. Recently, there have been efforts to quantify the predictive flexibility of thermostatic loads (e.g. residential air-conditioners, electric water-heaters) using the notion of virtual battery (VB), whose state evolution is governed by a first order dynamics including self-dissipation rate, and power and energy capacities. Identifying the VB model parameters for a collection of thermostatic loads, however, is challenging primarily due to uncertainties and lack of information regarding the end-user behavior, underlying device models and parameters. In this paper, we propose a \textit{variational autoencoder}-based deep learning algorithm to identify the parameters of the VB model. Using available sensors and meters data, the proposed algorithm generates not only point estimates of the VB parameters, but also confidence intervals around those values. Effectiveness of the proposed frameworks is demonstrated on a collection of electric water-heater loads, whose operation is driven by uncertain water usage profiles.

virtual battery, deep learning algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new framework to map fine resolution cropping intensity across the globe: Algorithm, validation, and implication

We report accurate estimation of cropping intensity (CI), an indicator of food production, is well aligned with the ongoing efforts to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) under diminishing natural resources. The advancement in satellite remote sensing provides unprecedented opportunities for capturing CI information in a spatially continuous manner. However, challenges remain due to the lack of generalizable algorithms for accurately and efficiently mapping global CI with a fine spatial resolution. In this study, we developed a 30-m planetary-scale CI mapping framework with the reconstructed time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from multiple satellite images. Using a binary crop phenophase profile indicating growing and non-growing periods, we estimated pixel-by-pixel CI by enumerating the total number of valid cropping cycles during the study years. Based on the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform, we implemented the framework to estimate CI during 2016–2018 in eight geographic regions across continents that are representative of global cropping system diversity. Comparison with PhenoCam network data in four cropland sites suggests that the proposed framework is capable of capturing the seasonal dynamics of cropping practices. Spatially, overall accuracies based on validation samples range from 80.0% to 98.9% across different regions worldwide. Regarding the CI classes, single cropping systems are associated with more robust and less biased estimations than multiple cropping systems. Finally, our CI estimates reveal high agreement with two widely used land surface phenology products, including Vegetation Index and Phenology V004 (VIP4) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2), meanwhile providing much more spatial details. Due to its robustness, the developed CI framework can be potentially generalized to produce global fine resolution CI products for food security and other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tool for Developing Integrated Strategies for Decontamination and Waste Management - 20291

Management of waste from chemical, biological, and radiological incidents is complicated by the fact that decontamination decisions have a profound impact on the characteristics of resulting waste streams. Wide-area biological and radiological incidents could produce massive quantities of waste that may need to be treated on-site and sent for subsequent disposal as non-contaminated materials, or else be directly disposed of as contaminated materials. The EPA has developed the Waste Estimation Support Tool (WEST) for characterizing and quantifying biological and radiological waste that may be generated from decontamination efforts. This paper focuses on the WEST's uses for radiological incidents. WEST combines Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis of externally-supplied plume data, infrastructure databases derived from the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) Hazus tool [1], and satellite imagery surface recognition algorithms to combine the composition and square footage of the buildings in the plume with estimates of the materials between the buildings in the plume. The resulting GIS data files are then imported into a Microsoft Access database application, where they are combined with information about the nature and concentration of contaminants, and then subjected to decontamination strategies for different contaminated surfaces. The tool provides estimates of the type and quantities of potential wastes resulting from simulated decontamination and/or demolition activities and includes estimates of the remaining contamination levels including residual contamination contained within each waste stream. Estimates are presented at several levels of detail, allowing users to obtain needed data at the desired resolution. These include estimates for the total affected area, estimates by contamination zone, estimates by decontamination method(s), and estimates by building type (occupancy classification). EPA is currently developing the next version of WEST which will include several substantial enhancements. The most significant improvement for the next version of WEST will include the ability for users to develop contamination scenarios and waste estimates based on previously developed, readily available, and geographically specific infrastructure data. Instead of using WEST's default infrastructure data based on FEMA's Hazus tool, users will be able to import their own building data specific to the geographically affected area. This capability may substantially decrease uncertainties in the resulting waste estimates because the results will be based on actual building data (numbers of each type, square footage, building height, etc.). Two other significant enhancements will be the ability to generate waste estimates for vehicles and biomass. In addition to building debris and building decontamination waste, vehicles and biomass will likely constitute a significant percentage of the total waste which may result from wide area contamination events. This presentation will present the most recent version of WEST, which includes such considerations as affected biomass (e.g., trees), vehicles, and the ability to replace the default Hazus infrastructure databases with custom infrastructure databases. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Rapid Population Assessment Method for Wild Pigs Using Baited Cameras at 3 Study Sites

ABSTRACT Reliable and efficient population estimates are a critical need for effective management of invasive wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ). We evaluated the use of 10‐day camera grids for rapid population assessment (RPA) of wild pigs at 3 study sites that varied in vegetation communities and wild pig densities. Study areas included Buck Island Ranch, Florida; Tejon Ranch, California; and the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA, during 2016–2018. Rapid population assessments grids were composed of baited camera traps spaced approximately 500 or 750 m apart. Two RPA grids were deployed per study site and each grid was deployed twice (4–6 months apart) to assess changes in response to season or population control efforts. We assessed the ability of RPA grids to track population trends, how camera number influenced estimate precision, and how relative abundance indices related to density estimates. We detected changes in occupancy probability, detection probability, and N‐mixture estimates following removal operations and between seasons, but the ability of RPA grids to track population trends was dependent on the statistical method used and number of cameras traps. Increasing the number of cameras traps used in RPA grids increased precision, and these results can be used in determining survey design and estimate choice. We found that estimates of occupancy probability, detection probability, and N‐mixture estimates were positively correlated with spatially explicit capture–recapture density estimates. Thus, these less labor‐intensive estimates from RPA grids showed potential to index the relative abundance of wild pigs in some systems. Our evaluation of RPAs indicates that using study‐specific combinations of statistical method and number of cameras can provide a useful tool for monitoring wild pig presence, tracking population trends, and evaluating the effectiveness of management actions. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

Schlichting, Peter E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Total Blood Mercury Predicts Methylmercury Exposure in Fish and Shellfish Consumers

Abstract Many studies evaluating methylmercury (MeHg) toxicity rely on whole blood total mercury (THg) measurements to estimate MeHg exposure. However, whole blood THg includes other forms of mercury (Hg), such as inorganic Hg, which have different exposure sources and toxicological effects than MeHg. Therefore, estimating the whole blood MeHg/THg ratio is critical to predicting MeHg exposure and, subsequently, efforts to establish an exposure–response relationship for use in risk assessment. A large, representative dataset (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011–2016) was used to determine the whole blood MeHg/THg ratio among (a) self-reported fish and shellfish consumers, ≥ 15 years of age (the “full adult” population ( N = 5268 training dataset; N = 2336 test dataset)) and (b) female fish and shellfish consumers, 15–44 years of age (the “women of reproductive age” population ( N = 1285 training dataset; N = 560 test dataset)). Unadjusted and adjusted linear and spline models with direct measurements for both THg and MeHg were evaluated. The mean whole blood MeHg/THg ratio was 0.75 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 0.75). This ratio was significantly higher among those with higher THg concentrations. All models exhibited excellent fit (adjusted R 2 from 0.957 to 0.982). Performance was slightly improved in spline versus linear models. For the full adult population and women of reproductive age, the unadjusted spline model predicted whole blood MeHg concentrations of 5.65 µg/L and 5.55 µg/L, respectively, when the THg concentration was 5.80 µg/L. These results suggest that whole blood THg is a good predictor of whole blood MeHg among fish and shellfish consumers.

Wells, Ellen M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reference Correlations for the Density and Viscosity of Molten Alkali and Alkaline Earth Fluoride Salts

While there is a significant body of literature pertaining to thermophysical property measurements of molten salts, there is often a wide degree of variability among independent measurements of the same compounds. As such, the scientific community benefits greatly from an unbiased, independent assessment of duplicate datasets, so that reference correlations which describe these thermophysical properties as functions of temperature can be determined and then commonly used by researchers, scientists, and engineers. With regard to molten fluoride compounds, a significant time has elapsed since density and viscosity reference correlations have been determined; Janz conducted the most recent effort, in 1988, to provide reference correlations for the densities and viscosities of molten fluoride compounds via the National Standard Reference Data System coordinated by the National Bureau of Standards. Since then, new data have been published for molten fluoride compounds, and a new precedent has surfaced for putting forth reference correlations that involve fitting to multiple primary datasets. In this work, reference correlations are put forth for molten alkali and alkaline earth fluoride compounds in an effort to provide updated, improved correlations for general use. For molten alkali fluoride densities, estimated uncertainties with a 95% confidence interval are summarized as follows: LiF (0.63%), NaF (0.48%), KF (0.76%), RbF (0.93%), and CsF (0.75%). For molten alkaline earth fluoride densities, an estimated uncertainty was not able to be quantified for BeF 2 because of limited data; however, estimated uncertainties with a 95% confidence interval are summarized as follows for the remaining alkaline earth fluorides: MgF 2 (1.5%), CaF 2 (0.92%), SrF 2 (1.6%), and BaF 2 (0.23%). For molten alkali fluoride viscosities, uncertainty was not able to be quantified for RbF and CsF because of limited data; however, estimated uncertainties with a 95% confidence interval are summarized as follows for the remaining alkali fluorides: LiF (4.4%), NaF (3.0%), and KF (4.0%). For molten alkaline earth fluoride viscosities, limited consistent data resulted in the recommendation of single datasets (from literature) that are deemed to be the most trustworthy based on the quality of the underlying experimental studies.

Birri, A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), O↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy to Communities Program Short Introduction: Evaluation of Enhanced Geothermal System for Cornell District Heating [Slides]

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, NLR, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported Cornell University (Itaca, NY) community efforts in developing Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) reservoir performance, by simulating fracture flow to estimate pressure drop, flow distribution, and heat extraction efficiency in fractured rock. Thermal drawdown modeling was used to assess long-term resource sustainability, while system optimization studies refined key parameters such as well configuration and flow rate to improve overall reservoir efficiency.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning approach to emulation and biophysical parameter estimation with the Community Land Model, version 5

Abstract. Land models are essential tools for understanding and predicting terrestrial processes and climate–carbon feedbacks in the Earth system, but uncertainties in their future projections are poorly understood. Improvements in physical process realism and the representation of human influence arguably make models more comparable to reality but also increase the degrees of freedom in model configuration, leading to increased parametric uncertainty in projections. In this work we design and implement a machine learning approach to globally calibrate a subset of the parameters of the Community Land Model, version 5 (CLM5) to observations of carbon and water fluxes. We focus on parameters controlling biophysical features such as surface energy balance, hydrology, and carbon uptake. We first use parameter sensitivity simulations and a combination of objective metrics including ranked global mean sensitivity to multiple output variables and non-overlapping spatial pattern responses between parameters to narrow the parameter space and determine a subset of important CLM5 biophysical parameters for further analysis. Using a perturbed parameter ensemble, we then train a series of artificial feed-forward neural networks to emulate CLM5 output given parameter values as input. We use annual mean globally aggregated spatial variability in carbon and water fluxes as our emulation and calibration targets. Validation and out-of-sample tests are used to assess the predictive skill of the networks, and we utilize permutation feature importance and partial dependence methods to better interpret the results. The trained networks are then used to estimate global optimal parameter values with greater computational efficiency than achieved by hand tuning efforts and increased spatial scale relative to previous studies optimizing at a single site. By developing this methodology, our framework can help quantify the contribution of parameter uncertainty to overall uncertainty in land model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Air quality and health impacts of the 2020 wildfires in California

Abstract Background Wildfires in 2020 ravaged California to set the annual record of area burned to date. Clusters of wildfires in Northern California surrounded the Bay Area covering the skies with smoke and raising the air pollutant concentrations to hazardous levels. This study uses the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research database and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model to estimate the effects of wildfire emissions on air quality during the period from August 16 to October 28 of 2020. In addition, low-cost sensor data for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) from the PurpleAir network is used to enhance modeled PM 2.5 concentrations. The resulting impacts on ozone and PM 2.5 are used to quantify the health impacts caused by wildfires using the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition. Results Wildfire activity significantly increased direct PM 2.5 emissions and emissions of PM 2.5 and ozone precursors. Direct PM 2.5 emissions surged up to 38 times compared to an average day. Modeling results indicated that wildfires alone led to a rise in ozone daily maximum 8-h average by up to 10 ppb and exceeded PM 2.5 air quality standards in numerous locations by up to 10 times. While modeled PM 2.5 concentrations were lower than measurements, correcting these with PurpleAir data improved the accuracy. The correction using PurpleAir data increased estimates of wildfire-induced mortality due to PM 2.5 exposure by up to 16%. Conclusions The increased hospital admissions and premature mortality attributed to wildfires were found to be comparable to the health impacts avoided by strategies aimed at meeting ozone and PM2.5 air quality standards. This suggests that widespread wildfire emissions can negate years of efforts dedicated to controlling air pollution. The integration of low-cost sensor data proved invaluable in refining the estimates of health impacts from PM2.5 resulting from wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗