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DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and Optimization of Zeolites for Contaminant Removal from Coal Combustion Impoundment Leachates

Coal Combustion Residual (CCR) landfills in the U.S. can lead to elevated contaminant concentrations in groundwater and runoff, particularly of arsenic, boron, and selenium. Zeolites can be readily synthesized from materials contained within the coal combustion ash impoundments and can be cation-exchanged to enhance adsorption capacity, selectivity, and reactivity. However, the optimization of zeolites becomes a daunting task when accounting for the variety of Si:Al ratios, the species of extra-framework cations present, and the zeolite pore structure. Molecular simulations provide methods to study and guide the design of zeolites for the sorption of contaminants from aqueous solution. In this work, models that predict the sorption of arsenic, boron, and selenium from water using cation-exchanged zeolites. Because of the lack of experimental adsorption data for these species of contaminants, models were parametrized to reproduce the results of first-principles calculations and then used to predict sorption for zeolites for a dataset containing 6000 combinations of zeolites and sorption conditions. Machine learning was used to train a model to predict sorption for materials in this database based on the results of the molecular simulations. Next, a genetic algorithm was used to optimize zeolites for the removal of each contaminant from aqueous solution for individual impoundment sites based on contaminant concentrations reported by the Electric Power Research Institute.

Findley, John↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cross-Linker Selection Controls Glass Transition Elevation or Reduction in Dynamic Covalently Bonded Polymer Networks

Introducing cross-links is a powerful approach to improve polymeric material performance relevant to controlling viscoelasticity, thermal and creep resistance, degradability, and efficient membrane separations. The chemically specific glass transition temperature T g is of fundamental importance in determining the time scales of key dynamical processes and physical state of the material in such applications. Here, we study experimentally how the introduction of relatively large cross-linking molecules in slowly exchanging dynamic bond-forming polymers (vitrimers) impacts vitrification for diverse polymer chemistries and a wide range of cross-link fractions. We find T g can increase, decrease, or even remain essentially unchanged, in qualitative contrast to the generic elevation of T g in traditional permanent polymer networks. We formulate an effective terpolymer network model to understand this rich behavior, which emerges as a consequence of a competition between pure cross-linking and generalized plasticization effects. The latter is associated with the tunable cross-linker size and intrinsic dynamic mobility that can offset slowing down due to traditional permanent cross-linking constraints. Here, a new strategy for functional polymer network design is suggested based on adjusting the relative importance of the two competing physical effects, which potentially can significantly enhance energy savings in applications while retaining other intrinsic properties germane to advanced materials performance.

Copolymers↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structural Heterogeneity and Hydrodynamics of an Intrinsically Disordered Protein Condensate

Biology demonstrates precise control over the free-energy landscape through the selective partitioning of biomacromolecules into membraneless organelles, enabling essential functions such as biochemical transformations, signaling cascades, and mechanical reinforcement. Although the function of these condensates depends on their underlying structure and hydrodynamics, molecular-scale information on these systems remains sparse. Here, in this study, neutron scattering is used to probe the organization and dynamics of the intrinsically disordered N-terminal domain of Galectin-3, an extracellular lectin responsible for facilitating liquid–liquid phase separation on the cellular surface, in both dilute and condensed phases. Dilute solutions contain isolated protein chains in equilibrium with mesoscopic clusters, whereas the condensed phase adopts a bicontinuous, microemulsion-like morphology. The dilute phase behavior is quantitatively described by coarse-grained polymer models from soft-matter physics, demonstrating their predictive power for complex biological proteins. At elevated concentrations, the proteins self-assemble akin to block copolymers, microphase separating through the aggregation of hydrophobic domains along the protein contour. The resulting condensate remains fluid-like despite a 25-fold increase in concentration; its internal hydrodynamics slow by only a factor of 3 relative to dilute protein chains. These results provide a molecular-level framework for how disordered proteins achieve both the structural complexity and dynamic fluidity of biomolecular condensates.

Carrick, Brian R. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technolo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward Trustworthy Autonomous Science: A Two-Year Community Roadmap

One year ago, the AISLE roadmap argued that autonomous laboratories operated as isolated islands and proposed a grassroots network organized around five critical dimensions. The field has since moved faster than that roadmap anticipated: multi-agent systems have produced experimentally validated hypotheses, self-driving laboratories have grown more interoperable and orchestrated, reasoning-trained and domain foundation models have raised the capability ceiling, and the Genesis Mission has placed autonomous experimentation at the center of U.S. federal science strategy, with industry emerging as a primary actor. Progress has met a sobering counter-current, including a corrected flagship discovery result, benchmarks showing that agents which rival experts on closed-ended questions still complete only a fraction of open-ended research, and fabricated citations surfacing at leading venues. We read this as the defining tension of the field: producing a candidate discovery is no longer the hard part, but verifying it is, and this asymmetry now limits autonomous science more than raw model capability. Accordingly, we update the roadmap around seven dimensions, revisiting the original five and elevating two former cross-cutting concerns, trust, verification, and reproducibility, and safety, security, and governance, to first-class status. We assess the original milestones (M1 through M14) as achieved, partially achieved, reframed, or open, add four new milestones (M15 through M18) for the elevated dimensions, and scope the path forward to a two-year horizon, with the first year concentrating on interfaces, protocol adoption, and the scaffolding of verification, and the second targeting federation, zero-trust coordination, and governance. Throughout, we position the grassroots network as the interoperability fabric that lets national programs, international initiatives, and commercial platforms connect rather than re-silo.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving Building Footprint Extraction Using NAIP and 3DEP Lidar Derived Features with Deep Learning

Accurate building footprint extraction is critical for applications ranging from population estimation to disaster management. Although optical imagery provides detailed spectral information, it often struggles with shadows, occlusions, and background clutter in dense urban environments. Lidar data, by contrast, offer precise elevation and structural attributes but face challenges such as variable point density and noise. This study integrates multispectral imagery from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) with lidar-derived feature height and intensity from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) to improve footprint extraction using a U-Net–based deep learning model. A six-band input stack (RGB, near-infrared, height, intensity) was developed, normalized, and tiled for training and evaluation against Microsoft Global Building Footprints (GBF). Results from the Houston, TX test site show that the six-band model achieved a precision of 0.86, recall of 0.88, F1 score of 0.87, and Intersection-over-Union (IoU) of 0.76, consistently outperforming four-band baselines by reducing false positives while maintaining sensitivity. Predictions on withheld Houston tiles confirmed strong within-region generalization, yielded a precision of 0.78, recall of 0.81, F1 score of 0.79, and IoU of 0.66. Qualitative analysis further revealed limitations stemming from both training label quality and vegetation–building confusion. These findings demonstrate the complementary value of integrating spectral and structural information for robust building footprint extraction and how domain adaptation strategies can be used to enhance cross-regional transferability.

Liu, Jung Kuan [United States Geological Survey (U↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy Yield Loss Due to LETID

This presentation presents an open-source LETID model part of the PVDegradationTools, which can calculate solar modules degradation due to Light and Elevated Temperature (LETID).

degradation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Three Decades of Wetland Methane Surface Flux Modeling by Earth System Models–Advances, Applications, and Challenges

Earth System Models (ESMs) simulate the exchange of mass and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere, with a key focus on modeling natural greenhouse gas feedbacks. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. There are growing concerns over the rapidly increasing methane concentration in the atmosphere, underscoring the need for accurate global modeling of its emissions using ESMs. Of the multitude of sources of methane globally, wetlands are the largest natural emitters for methane, leading to significant efforts targeting their representation in ESMs with a special focus on their methane emissions. In this review, we first provide a historical overview of including wetland–methane components in ESMs and how methane modeling approaches have evolved over time. Second, we discuss recent modeling advancements that show promise for improvements in methane emissions predictions, namely the coupling of surface and atmospheric modules of ESMs, the representation of microtopography and transport mechanisms, the resolution of microbial processes at different spatial–temporal scales, and the improved mapping of wetland area extent across the different wetland types. Third, we shed light on the different challenges hindering accurate estimations of wetland–methane emissions, as shown by the consistent discrepancy between bottom–up and top–down models' predictions. Finally, we emphasize that more detailed representation of biogeochemistry and dynamic hydrology while resolving the within–wetland vegetation heterogeneity should improve model predictions, especially when coupled with expanding ground–based measurement networks and high–resolution remote sensing mapping of methane–relevant variables, such as water elevation, water table depth, and methane concentration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Colloidal Behavior of Plutonium Oxide in Concentrated Electrolyte Solutions

The Hanford Site in Washington State manages legacy high-level radioactive waste streams that display major chemistry and engineering challenges, including the high salt levels and pH values that correspond to conditions under which many classical concepts describing chemical reactivity cannot be applied. One particular challenge that needs to be tackled at Hanford is that Pu concentrations, [Pu], in the soluble phases of the tank wastes are higher than expected based on the solubility of crystalline PuO2, which is widely accepted to be caused by the formation of PuO2 colloid, consisting of nano- to submicron-sized particles (PuO2 NPs). Fundamental research underpinning the behavior of PuO2 NPs under conditions not only relevant to the Hanford tank waste but at high ionic strength in general is needed to reliably predict the chemical reactivity of PuO2 NPs and develop engineering solutions to safely and efficiently process high-level radioactive waste into forms suitable for long-term storage. In this work, we study the behavior of PuO2 NPs (particle size ~100 nm) under high ionic strength conditions by reacting it with highly concentrated (up to 5 M) salt solutions. We explore different electrolyte compositions to elucidate the impact of different anions (NO3-, Cl-, ClO4-, SO42-, C2O42-, CO32-) on the stability of PuO2 NP in the acidic and alkaline pH regime. PuO2 NP aggregation and precipitation as function electrolyte concentration is tracked by a combination of liquid scintillation counting, dynamic light scattering for determination of particle size distributions, and zeta potentials as a proxy for particle charge. At acidic pH, electrolytes containing non-coordinating anions, such as NaNO3, NaCl, and NaClO4 mostly stabilize PuO2 NPs over a large electrolyte concentration range, showing only subtle differences in their reactivity. Other electrolyte anions show a more pronounced effect on the PuO2 NP stability: SO42-, binds directly to the particles’ surface, reverses the particle charge, and precipitates the PuO2 NPs efficiently even at intermediate sulfate concentrations (>0.1 M). In contrast, C2O42- is found to lead to high [Pu] in solution, in the milli-molar range, even at mildly acidic pH (~4). Thermodynamic modeling of the dissolved Pu concentrations using PHREEQC is unable to predict the observed [Pu] in the acidic pH regime, supporting the influence of colloids in maintaining elevated [Pu]. It is noteworthy that the current thermodynamic databases do not include constants for colloidal Pu phases and cannot accurately predict many of the high ionic strength solutions relevant to this work. The mechanisms and models responsible for these observations will need further investigation in the future. At high pH values (~12), PuO2 NPs exhibits classical sol-gel chemistry, meaning that upon destabilization of the colloidal sol, for example by addition of concentrated NaOH, highly porous and viscid PuO2 coagulates are formed that consist of a three-dimensional network likely held together by physical interactions. The PuO2 NP coagulate shows no significant reversibility of the aggregation when contacted with concentrated brines; however, PuO2 NPs can be efficiently resuspended in solution by addition of diluted electrolytes, alkaline solutions containing high amounts of carbonate, or simple addition of water. Especially carbonate is shown to stabilize PuO2 NPs in solution at high pH, characterized by stable colloidal suspensions that are resistant against sedimentation during centrifugation. Thermodynamic modeling of the carbonate system was able to predict an increasing dissolved Pu concentration with increasing carbonate concentration. However, the model was profoundly sensitive to the fixed redox potential and does not include any thermodynamic constants for colloidal Pu species.

Neumann, Julia↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Crustal and Upper Mantle Structure of the Middle East and Southwest Asia for Improved Waveform Simulations Using Openly Available Broadband Data

Here we present a new model of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds for the crust and upper mantle of a broad region of the Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESWA) derived from adjoint waveform tomography. The new model enables fully 3D simulations of complete three-component waveforms and provides improved fits that were not possible with previous models. We inverted over 32,000 waveforms from 192 earthquakes recorded by over 1000 openly available broadband seismic stations from permanent and temporary networks in the region with highly uneven coverage. Inversion iterations proceeded from the period band 50–100 s in six stages and 54 total iterations reducing the minimum period to 30 s. Our final model, MESWA, improves waveform fits compared to the starting and other models for both the data used in the inversion and an independent validation set of 66 events. Restitution tests indicate that the model resolves features in the central part of the model to depths of about 150 km. The new model reveals tectonic features imaged by other studies and methods but in a new holistic model of anisotropic shear and compressional wavespeeds (V S and V P , respectively) covering a larger domain with smaller scale length and amplified features. Examples include low crustal V S in the Tethyan belt and low mantle VS following divergent (Gulf of Aden, Red Sea) and transform (Dead Sea fault) margins of the Arabian plate. Low V S is imaged below Cenozoic volcanic centers of the Mecca–Madina–Nafud Line, Arabian Peninsula, and the Türkiye–Iran border region. Elevated V S tracks Makran subduction under southeast Iran with near vertical dip. MESWA could be used as a starting model for further improvements, say, using waveforms from in-country seismic networks that are not currently openly available and/or smaller-scale studies targeting a shorter period. The model could be used to improve earthquake hazard studies and nuclear explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ecohydrological controls on root and microbial respiration in the East River watershed of Colorado

The main objective of this project was to conduct exploratory work to quantify how snow and rain water inputs influence the CO2 coming from the soil surface (soil CO2 flux), and its plant and microbial sources, in the East River watershed, near Crested Butte, Colorado. Knowledge gained from this effort laid the groundwork for a more comprehensive (ongoing) follow-on grant that is using a combination of experiments, field observations, machine learning and simulation modeling to fully disentangle these relationships. New field measurements were made at four locations along an elevational transect on Snodgrass Mountain at Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. These sites were chosen to differ in total snowpack and water table depth, and included both deciduous (aspen) and evergreen (spruce/fir) forest types. We used automated measurements of soil CO2 concentrations to quantify the total soil CO2 flux, and the vertical CO2 production within the soil profile at each site. Isotope (radiocarbon, 14C) measurements determined how much of the CO2 emitted from the soil surface came from plant respiration (root metabolism) versus microbial respiration (decomposition of soil organic matter) sources. Supporting data on plant phenology and microbial dynamics provided context for the observed variation in respiration sources. This work was motivated by our overarching hypothesis that quantifying belowground plant and microbial processes separately, and how they are influenced by snow and rain inputs, is necessary for understanding and predicting how the East River watershed ecosystems will respond to future environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Hydrology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Association of short-term ambient environmental exposures with suicide and drug overdose deaths among U.S. Veterans

This study examined associations between short-term ambient environmental exposures and suicide (n = 3210) and overdose mortality (n = 4293; 2226 opioid-related) among U.S. Veterans from 2018 to 2019. Daily exposure to 24-hour maximum temperature, average atmospheric pressure, average fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), 1-hour maximum nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and 8-hour maximum ozone (O 3 ) was assessed at the decedent's county of residence on the day of death and up to 6 days prior. A national bi-directional, time-stratified case-crossover design was applied. Conditional logistic regression models estimated associations between each exposure and suicide or overdose deaths, overall, and stratified by season, region, elevation, and urbanicity. Over lag days 0-1, an interquartile range increase in maximum temperature was associated with increased suicide (19%) and overdose (27%) mortality, with stronger summer effects for suicide (55%) and overdose (71%). In winter, interquartile range increases in atmospheric pressure, PM 2.5 , and NO 2 were associated with 104%, 15%, and 19% increases in suicide mortality. Maximum temperature was associated with a 22% increase in suicide risk in metropolitan areas and 57% in the Western U.S., while NO 2 was associated with a 26% increase in overdose mortality in nonmetropolitan areas. Findings suggest environmental stressors contribute to suicide and overdose mortality among Veterans, supporting environmentally informed prevention efforts.

air pollution↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Soil Oxygen Dynamics: A Key Mediator of Tile Drainage Impacts on Coupled Hydrological, Biogeochemical, and Crop Systems

Tile drainage removes excess water and is an essential, widely adopted management practice to enhance crop productivity in the US Midwest and throughout the world. Tile drainage has been shown to significantly change hydrological and biogeochemical cycles by lowering the water table and reducing the residence time of soil water, although examining the complex interactions and feedbacks in an integrated hydrology–biogeochemistry–crop system remains elusive. Oxygen dynamics are critical to unraveling these interactions and have been ignored or oversimplified in existing models. Understanding these impacts is essential, particularly so because tile drainage has been highlighted as an adaptation under projected wetter springs and drier summers in the changing climate in the US Midwest. We used the ecosys model that uniquely incorporates first-principle soil oxygen dynamics and crop oxygen uptake mechanisms to quantify the impacts of tile drainage on hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and crop growth in corn–soybean rotation fields. The model was validated with data from a multi-treatment, multi-year experiment in Washington, IA. The relative root mean square error (rRMSE) for the corn and soybean yield in validation is 5.66 % and 12.57 %, respectively. The Pearson coefficient (r) of the monthly tile flow during the growing season is 0.78. Plant oxygen stress turns out as an emergent property of the equilibrium between the soil oxygen supply and biological demand. The impact of tile drainage on the system is achieved through a series of coupled feedback mechanisms. The model results show that tile drainage reduces the soil water content and enhances soil oxygenation. It additionally increases the subsurface discharge and elevates inorganic nitrogen leaching, with seasonal variations influenced by climate and crop phenology. The improved aerobic condition alleviates crop oxygen stress during wet springs, thereby promoting crop root growth during the early growth stage. The development of greater root density, in turn, mitigates water stress during dry summers, leading to an overall increase in the crop yield by ∼6 %. These functions indicate the potential of tile drainage in bolstering crop resilience to climate change and the use of this modeling tool for large-scale assessments of tile drainage. The model reveals the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the agroecosystem response to drainage on the coupled hydrology, biogeochemistry, and crop system dynamics.

Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Soil oxygen dynamics: a key mediator of tile drainage impacts on coupled hydrological, biogeochemical, and crop systems

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-model files associated with the manuscript "Modeling the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Coastal Hydrology: A Case Study of Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California"

This package contains the data, simulation setups, notebooks and figures used in “Modeling the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Coastal Hydrology: A Case Study of Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California” (Xu et al., 2025). In this study, we selected Elkhorn Slough, a tidal estuary, in California, to investigate the impact of wetland restoration and sea level rise on coastal hydrology using the process-based coastal hydrologic model, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), informed by site-specific data. We designed a novel modeling workflow for incorporating wetland restoration features into land cover and soil properties for the model parameterization. The validation results demonstrate a strong agreement between modeled and observed data. We studied the characteristics of coastal watershed hydrology, then focused on the surface water dynamics at two wetland sites within Elkhorn Slough, a reference site and a restored site. Our simulation results indicate that the restored site successfully maintains surface elevation, resulting in reduced surface inundation. We also examined the impact of wetland restoration under expected sea level rise over the next few decades. The low-lying Yampah Marsh, the reference site, is likely to be inundated due to future sea level rise when highest tides arrive; while a higher percentage of Hester Marsh, the restored site, would retain marsh vegetation in coming decades, regardless of tidal conditions. Our study provides important information for examining the outcome of restoration practices that include surface elevation in tidal wetlands under climate changes.Several files can be found from this data package.1. README.md: This file describes the title, journal, co-authors, abstract, repository structure and model version.2. Simulation_Setups.zip: The file contains the model configuration files (XML format) for ATS. 3. Notebooks.zip: The file contains the Jupyter notebooks for generating the pre- and post-restoration meshes and the meshes of future scenarios. 4. Figures.zip: The file contains the figures used in the manuscript.5. Data.zip: The file contains the data used to drive the model simulations, including watershed and wetlands boundaries, mesh files and references to additional datasets (e.g., meteorological forcing, tidal dataset, DEMs, land cover, soil properties). Also, it contains water level observations at the restored wetland.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-Fidelity Numerical Wave Tank Verification & Validation Study: Wave Generation Through Paddle Motion: Preprint

This paper presents a numerical benchmark study of wave propagation due to a paddle motion using different high-fidelity numerical models, which are capable of replicating the nearly actual physical wave tank testing. A full time series of the measured wave generation paddle motion which was used to generate wave propagation in the physical wave tank will be utilized in each of the models contributed by IEA OES Task 10's participants, which includes both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and smooth hydrodynamic particle (SPH). The high-fidelity simulations of the physical wave testcase will allow for the evaluation of the initial transient effects from wave ramp-up and its evolution in the wave tank over time for two representative regular waves with varying levels of nonlinearity. A couple of interesting metrics like the predicted wave surface elevation at select wave probes, wave period, and phase-shift in time will be assessed to evaluate the relative accuracy of numerical models versus experimental data within specified time intervals. These models will serve as a guide for modelers in the wave energy community and provide a base case to allow further and more detailed numerical modeling of the fixed Kramer Sphere Cases under wave excitation force wave tank testing.

HYDRO ENERGY,TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Summary Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO 2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES‐HYDRO) to simulate the stand‐level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086–2100: SSP2‐45, SSP5‐85) and two CO 2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1–11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO 2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO 2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO 2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo‐tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗