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At least 145 records · Page 8

Constraining Present‐Day Anthropogenic Total Iron Emissions Using Model and Observations

Abstract Iron emissions from human activities, such as oil combustion and smelting, affect the Earth's climate and marine ecosystems. These emissions are difficult to quantify accurately due to a lack of observations, particularly in remote ocean regions. In this study, we used long‐term, near‐source observations in areas with a dominance of anthropogenic iron emissions in various parts of the world to better estimate the total amount of anthropogenic iron emissions. We also used a statistical source apportionment method to identify the anthropogenic components and their sub‐sources from bulk aerosol observations in the United States. We find that the estimates of anthropogenic iron emissions are within a factor of 3 in most regions compared to previous inventory estimates. Under‐ or overestimation varied by region and depended on the number of sites, interannual variability, and the statistical filter choice. Smelting‐related iron emissions are overestimated by a factor of 1.5 in East Asia compared to previous estimates. More long‐term iron observations and the consideration of the influence of dust and wildfires could help reduce the uncertainty in anthropogenic iron emissions estimates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗

Vehicle-Cycle Inventory for Type C School Buses & Intra-City Transit Buses

This report documents the new inventory incorporated into the Research and Development version of Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) 2025 model for the vehicle cycle of Type C school buses and intracity transit buses. The transportation sector contributes significantly to the United States’ energy consumption and resultant emissions (EPA, 2025a). However, public transit plays an important role in mitigating these impacts because it consumes a relatively low amount of energy per passenger (Congressional Budget Office, 2022). Public transit is widely used in the United States; more than 500,000 school buses (EPA, 2025b) and ~75,000 service buses (American Public Transportation Association, 2025) operate in the nation. These are primarily internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) powered by diesel. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are making efforts to electrify U.S. bus fleets by using batteries as a propulsion system to replace internal combustion engines. Electrification can reduce tailpipe emissions, such as particulate matter (with a diameter ≤10 µm [PM 10 ] and with a diameter ≤2.5 µm [PM 2.5 ]) and nitrogen oxides (Jonas et al., 2025; Martinez and Samaras, 2024; EPA, 2025b; Wayne et al., 2009). Hence, any energy and emission impact analysis of public transit must consider both conventional ICEVs and upcoming electric vehicle (EV) options for the school and transit buses that dominate this landscape. To understand the detailed environmental impact profiles of ICEV and EV school and transit buses, it is necessary to conduct a thorough analysis covering both vehicle manufacturing and vehicle use stages. The current literature lacks a detailed vehicle-cycle inventory for school and transit buses, which makes this kind of comparison difficult. To overcome this gap, we developed a comprehensive vehicle-cycle model for school and transit buses in Argonne’s R&D GREET 2025 model. The model is flexible in handling user inputs for key assumptions, such as component weights and material compositions, upstream energy sources for material processing, and vehicle operating parameters, to understand their impacts on energy use and emissions for both school and transit buses. This report is organized as follows: Section 2 provides details on the modeling approach and vehicle specifications (weights and composition of different vehicle components, and vehicle operating parameters) for both school and transit buses. Section 3 provides details on vehicle assembly, disposal, and recycling (ADR) approaches for the two buses. Section 4 includes details about their incorporation into the R&D GREET model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Adding Tree Rings to North America's National Forest Inventories: An Essential Tool to Guide Drawdown of Atmospheric CO 2

Tree-ring time series provide long-term, annually resolved information on the growth of trees. When sampled in a systematic context, tree-ring data can be scaled to estimate the forest carbon capture and storage of landscapes, biomes, and—ultimately—the globe. A systematic effort to sample tree rings in national forest inventories would yield unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution of forest carbon dynamics and help resolve key scientific uncertainties, which we highlight in terms of evidence for forest greening (enhanced growth) versus browning (reduced growth, increased mortality). We describe jump-starting a tree-ring collection across the continent of North America, given the commitments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to visit forest inventory plots, along with existing legacy collections. Failing to do so would be a missed opportunity to help chart an evidence-based path toward meeting national commitments to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, urgently needed for climate stabilization and repair.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vehicle-Cycle Inventory for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles

The United States has witnessed multiple attempts to improve fuel economy and reduce pollutant emissions in the transportation sector, guided chiefly via technological interventions by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and by specific policies of the U.S. Federal Government, like Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) norms (Burnham et al., 2006; U.S. DoT, 2013). These efforts have resulted in the growing adoption of alternatives to conventional materials, fuels, and vehicle propulsion technologies across various transportation modes, while also helping to lower global pollution (greenhouse gas, or GHG, emissions). Yet, a holistic evaluation of the ecofriendliness of these alternatives, particularly their energy use and emissions, merits detailed focus on their entire life-cycle, and thereby, on the life-cycle of associated transport modes. This is vital since alternative fuels and materials can differ vastly in energy sources and production methods employed for their processing vis-à-vis their existing counterparts — and this difference causes significant variation in their respective upstream emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Life Cycle Analysis of Growing Canola for Biofuel Production in the United States

This study quantifies and compares the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable diesel (RD), sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and biodiesel (BD) produced from two U.S. canola production systems: 1) emerging intermediate winter canola, typically grown in double- or relay-cropping systems between the growing seasons of main crops, and 2) main canola, mostly spring canola but also including winter canola, which are grown as primary crops occupying the field for a full growing season. Using the Research and Development version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model and the most up-to-date life cycle inventory data─field trial data for intermediate winter canola (>37,000 acres) and recent national survey data for spring canola─this life cycle analysis (LCA) estimates the direct emissions from canola cultivation and harvest, the conversion of canola into fuels, fuel transportation, and combustion. In addition, we account for market-mediated emissions associated with a scenario of 0.5 billion gallons per year of spring canola-based biofuels, including induced land use change (ILUC), induced other crop (nonfeedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes. For intermediate winter canola, these market-mediated effects were not modeled, as ILUC is expected to be negligible due to its integration into existing rotations, and data are currently insufficient to reliably quantify other market-mediated changes. The estimated life cycle direct emissions of RD/SAF derived from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 32 and 33 g of CO2-equivalent per megajoule of fuel (g CO 2 e/MJ), respectively. Corresponding emissions for BD from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 30 and 31 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. Farming is the dominant emissions source for both canola systems, with intermediate winter canola and main spring canola emitting about 19 and 20 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. ILUC and other induced changes increase emissions of main spring canola-derived RD/SAF and BD by about 18 and 17 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. These results indicate that the GHG emissions of biofuels produced from the two canola systems may differ substantially due to the different land use dynamics of the systems.

biodiesel↗

Updated Production Inventory for Lithium-Ion Battery Anodes for the GREET® Model, and Review of Advanced Battery Chemistries

The Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET®) model considers lithium-ion batteries with multiple anode materials. Synthetic graphite is the primary anode material used in the previous GREET versions, even as the model offered options to choose a lithium anode and/or a blended anode (blend of synthetic graphite and silicon). Yet, the inventory (material and energy flows) considered for these anodes is dated, and the anode options do not consider natural graphite, which is another important anode material for lithium-ion batteries. This report documents the material and energy flows for natural graphite anode production from raw material extraction to anode production – as incorporated in the updated GREET model. We also present a brief literature review on the current state of inventory for the other three anodes (synthetic graphite, silicon, and lithium), as well as updates made in the recent GREET model on material and energy flows associated with their respective production. Finally, this study provides a summary of advanced battery systems that may be alternatives to LIBs for use in future electric vehicles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Advancements and opportunities to improve bottom–up estimates of global wetland methane emissions

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH 4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH 4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH 4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 yr -1 ). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (~80 Tg CH 4 yr -1 ), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH 4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH 4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH 4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 ) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH 4 observations directed at wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Life cycle analysis of hydrogen production via methane pyrolysis using plasma arc

Steam methane reforming of natural gas is the primary method of producing hydrogen in the United States, accounting for 95% of all hydrogen produced there. Methane pyrolysis, an alternative production pathway that decomposes natural gas into solid carbon and hydrogen, both eliminates CO 2 emissions associated with methane reforming and allows for additional income from carbon black. A life-cycle inventory of this process has been developed using ASPEN Plus to model the methane pyrolysis (plasma arc) process. From well to gate, hydrogen production via methane pyrolysis produces 2.78 kg CO 2 e/kg H 2 of greenhouse gas emissions using mass allocation of emissions between hydrogen and carbon black coproducts. The well-to-gate emissions are mainly driven by electricity consumption (∼38 kW h/kg H 2 ), which accounts for 81% of the emissions; if renewable electricity is used, well-to-gate emissions can be reduced to −0.448 kg CO 2 e/kg H 2 .

08 HYDROGEN↗

Methane fluxes in tidal marshes of the conterminous United States

Abstract Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) with atmospheric concentrations that have nearly tripled since pre‐industrial times. Wetlands account for a large share of global CH 4 emissions, yet the magnitude and factors controlling CH 4 fluxes in tidal wetlands remain uncertain. We synthesized CH 4 flux data from 100 chamber and 9 eddy covariance (EC) sites across tidal marshes in the conterminous United States to assess controlling factors and improve predictions of CH 4 emissions. This effort included creating an open‐source database of chamber‐based GHG fluxes ( https://doi.org/10.25573/serc.14227085 ). Annual fluxes across chamber and EC sites averaged 26 ± 53 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 , with a median of 3.9 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 , and only 25% of sites exceeding 18 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 . The highest fluxes were observed at fresh‐oligohaline sites with daily maximum temperature normals (MATmax) above 25.6°C. These were followed by frequently inundated low and mid‐fresh‐oligohaline marshes with MATmax ≤25.6°C, and mesohaline sites with MATmax >19°C. Quantile regressions of paired chamber CH 4 flux and porewater biogeochemistry revealed that the 90th percentile of fluxes fell below 5 ± 3 nmol m −2 s −1 at sulfate concentrations >4.7 ± 0.6 mM, porewater salinity >21 ± 2 psu, or surface water salinity >15 ± 3 psu. Across sites, salinity was the dominant predictor of annual CH 4 fluxes, while within sites, temperature, gross primary productivity (GPP), and tidal height controlled variability at diel and seasonal scales. At the diel scale, GPP preceded temperature in importance for predicting CH 4 flux changes, while the opposite was observed at the seasonal scale. Water levels influenced the timing and pathway of diel CH 4 fluxes, with pulsed releases of stored CH 4 at low to rising tide. This study provides data and methods to improve tidal marsh CH 4 emission estimates, support blue carbon assessments, and refine national and global GHG inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Industrial Locomotive Inventory Analysis

Due to their captive and local operations, industrial locomotives present a unique potential to reduce energy consumption and associated costs through application of advanced locomotive technologies. However, until now, there has been no data source for the number, size (hp), usage, and energy consumption of these locomotives, which limits the ability to design and implement a research, development, and deployment strategy. This research addresses this gap by developing the first national inventory of locomotives in industrial use and provides a tool to explore the energy and emissions associated with this transportation segment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Benchmarking greenhouse gas emissions from US wastewater treatment for targeted reduction

Here, in this study, to assess the national climate impact of wastewater treatment and inform decarbonization, we assembled a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory of 15,863 facilities in the contiguous USA. Considering location and treatment configurations, we modelled on-site CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 production and emissions associated with energy, chemical inputs and solids disposal. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated median national emissions at 47 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year, with on-site process CH 4 and N 2 O emissions exceeding current government estimates by 41%. Treatment configurations with anaerobic digesters are responsible for 16 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year of fugitive methane, outweighing benefits achieved through on-site electricity generation. Systems designed for nutrient removal have the highest greenhouse gas emissions intensity, attributable to energy requirements and N 2 O production, demonstrating current trade-offs between meeting water quality and climate objectives. We analysed key sensitivities and included a geospatial analysis to highlight the scale and distribution of opportunities for reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shifting agricultural practices to produce sustainable, low carbon intensity feedstocks for biofuel production

The carbon intensity (CI) of biofuel's well-to-pump life cycle is calculated by life cycle analysis (LCA) to account for the energy/material inputs of the feedstock production and fuel conversion stages and the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during these stages. The LCA is used by the California Air Resources Board's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program to calculate CI and monetary credits are issued based on the difference between a given fuel's CI and a reference fuel's CI. Through the Tier 2 certification program under which individual fuel production facilities can submit their own CIs with their facility input data, the LCFS has driven innovative technologies to biofuel conversion facilities, resulting in substantial reductions in GHG emissions as compared to the baseline gasoline or diesel. A similar approach can be taken to allow feedstock petition in the LCFS so that lower-CI feedstock can be rewarded. Here we examined the potential for various agronomic practices to improve the GHG profiles of corn ethanol by performing feedstock-level CI analysis for the Midwestern United States. Our system boundary covers GHG emissions from the cradle-to-farm-gate activities (i.e. farm input manufacturing and feedstock production), along with the potential impacts of soil organic carbon change during feedstock production. We conducted scenario-based CI analysis of ethanol, coupled with regionalized inventory data, for various farming practices to manage corn fields, and identified key parameters affecting cradle-to-farm-gate GHG emissions. The results demonstrate large spatial variations in CI of ethanol due to farm input use and land management practices. In particular, adopting conservation tillage, reducing nitrogen fertilizer use, and implementing cover crops has the potential to reduce GHG emissions per unit corn produced when compared to a baseline scenario of corn–soybean rotation. This work shows a large potential emission offset opportunity by allowing feedstock producers a path to Tier 2 petitions that reward low-CI feedstocks and further reduce biofuels' CI. The prevalence of significant acreage that has not been optimized for CI suggests that policy changes that incentivize optimization of this parameter could provide significant additionality over current trends in farm efficiency and adoption of conservation practice.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Natural Gas LCA

This presentation was provided via a pre-recorded presentation at the 2025 Coordinating Research Council Life Cycle Analysis of Transportation Workshop at Argonne National Laboratory on October 9, 2025. The presentation provides an overview of the methods and data sources used in the report, Life Cycle Analysis of Natural Gas Extraction and Power Generation: U.S. 2020 Emissions Profile and briefly discusses discrepancies between top-down and bottom-up inventory methods and how those might be overcome.

LCA↗

Expansion and Update of the R&D Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) for R&D GREET 2025

The R&D Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (R&D FD-CIC) is a transparent and easy-touse tool to estimate feedstock-specific carbon intensity (CI) of biofuel feedstocks, and to examine potential CI variations of different farming practices to grow agricultural feedstocks for biofuel production. The objective of the tool is to assess potential effects of different farming practices with underlined factors to reduce uncertainties in such assessment and help R&D activities. The original work and early versions of R&D FD-CIC were supported by Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) of the Department of Energy, with recent support by the Bioenergy Technologies Office of the Department of Energy. The tool uses life cycle inventory (LCI) data of key farming inputs from the R&D Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model. The system boundary of R&D FD-CIC covers the cradle-to-farm-gate activities, including upstream emissions related to farming input manufacturing and feedstock production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Supporting Information for the Integrated Methane Monitoring Platform Design (Final Report)

As the urgency for understanding methane emissions and the number of methane monitoring technologies being deployed have increased in the last two decades, there is an opportunity and a need to integrate the numerous disparate data sources to enable the detection, quantification, contextualization, and reporting of methane emissions along the oil and gas supply chain. Such an integration would enable emissions reductions through early detection of super emitters, data-driven mitigation strategies, and improvedgreenhouse gas inventories. The GTI Energy (“GTI”)project team (“the team”) worked with a multitude of industry experts, stakeholders, and subject matter experts (SMEs) to collect guidance, insights, and information to inform the requirements and subsequent engineering, design, deployment, and operations of an integrated methane monitoring platform (IMMP). This final report describes the results of the team’s effort to execute the Integrated Methane Monitoring Platform Design project, ultimately providing an engineering, design, deployment, and operating plan (EDDOP) for the IMMP. This document provides additional information supporting the findings in the final report.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Life Cycle Inventories for Palladium on Niobium Phosphate (Pd/NbOPO 4 ) and Zirconium Oxide (ZrO 2 ) Catalysts

We report the cradle-to-gate GHG emissions, fossil fuel consumption, and water consumption for Nb 2 O 5 , KNbO 3 , NbOPO 4 , Pd, Pd/NbOPO 4 , ZrSiO 4 , and ZrO 2 . Notably, the net GHG emissions impact of the Pd/NbOPO 4 catalyst is 8.5 kg CO 2 e/kg catalyst, which is comparable to other catalysts in GREET, while the net GHG emissions of the ZrO 2 catalyst is considerably lower at 1.8 kg CO 2 e/kg catalyst. We also identify the primary contributors to each catalyst’s cradle-to-gate environmental burden. For the Pd/NbOPO 4 catalyst, Pd metal is the main driver of GHG emissions and fossil fuel consumption, while Pd and NbOPO 4 contribute almost equally to water consumption. For the ZrO 2 catalyst, sodium hydroxide (NaOH) is the principal driver of GHG emissions and fossil fuel consumption, while ZrSiO 4 is the main consumer of water. The Pd/NbOPO 4 and ZrO 2 catalysts, as well as Nb 2 O 5 , KNbO 3 , NbOPO 4 , and ZrSiO 4 , are implemented in the GREET catalyst module, and Pd has been implemented in GREET2 (Kingsbury and Benavides 2021). The material and energy flows for these new materials will be useful to future LCAs, particularly those involving biofuel production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

BRE‐X Emissions Database for End‐of‐Life Scenarios of Selective Building Construction Materials to Enable Circular Economy in Construction

In the United States, construction and demolition debris predominately end up in landfills with minimal end‐of‐life Re‐X (recover, recycle, reuse, etc.) scenarios, resulting in large environmental impacts and lost opportunities for material recovery. Except for concrete and metals, which seem to have a few well‐defined end‐of‐life pathways, there seems to be a lack of well‐documented end‐of‐life scenarios for other construction materials, let alone their emissions data. Hence, there is a need for documented end‐of‐life Re‐X scenarios and end‐of‐life data of more building materials to motivate widespread use of Re‐X strategies in building design. This paper outlines the efforts of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Carbon Leadership Forum, Building Transparency, and Skidmore, Owings & Merrill to (a) create an open‐access BRE‐X (Building Re‐X) end‐of‐life emissions database consisting of greenhouse gas emissions data associated with various end‐of‐life scenarios for a select list of high‐impact building construction materials, and (b) integrate the BRE‐X end‐of‐life emissions database with CAD/BIM/LCA tools for evaluating various end‐of‐life scenarios. The paper also presents a few existing life cycle inventory databases that contain sparse amounts of end‐of‐life data for a few construction materials and their limitations in terms of scaling and data consolidation. Finally, a sample of how the collected data can be ingested into whole‐building LCA tools using open data formats and a public access link to the BRE‐X end‐of‐life emissions database is also included.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗