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At least 145 records · Page 8

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (3.8 COP, 18.6 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP).?Single-stage GHPs are able to reduce energy consumption by 31% for the entire stock. Additional results provided below detail how savings changes for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuel and in different climate zones, as well as the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Desalination metamodels and a framework for cross-comparative performance simulations

There is an opportunity to save energy and reduce operational expenses when choosing a suitable desalination method aided by computational modeling. Existing models are not conducive to generalized comparisons between different desalination methods. Therefore, the work in this study developed metamodels for six desalination methods, grouped them into thermal and molecular transport families, and validated their predictive performance within 9% difference from published data. This validated framework allowed comparisons of desalination methods at their prescribed ranges of operational conditions that they were designed for. These conditions specify feed salinity ranges of 1.6 to 2.4 g/kg for Capacitive Deionization and Reverse Osmosis (RO), 2.8 to 4.2 g/kg for Electrodialysis, 28 to 42 g/kg for Thermovapor Compression and Humidification-Dehumidification, and 37 to 55 g/kg for Multi-Effect Distillation (MED). Despite different operational conditions, all models exhibit non-linear, positive correlation between energy consumption and system size in response to feed salinity and production rate. The framework is also employed in a cross-comparative analysis between MED and RO whose results suggest that energy intensity for MED is an order of magnitude greater than RO for the same operational conditions, but actual operational costs are comparable. Overall, the framework is ready for deployment in case studies of actual desalination plants.

42 ENGINEERING↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Electric Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock TM and ComStock TM models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—boiler replacement by air-source heat pump boiler. This measure replaces space heating natural gas boilers by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and helps quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 2.9. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 20%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 2.5%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Is the Adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Solar Photovoltaics (PVs) Interdependent or Independent? An Integrated EVs-PVs Modeling Framework

Transportation and residential energy consumption account for more than one-half of the overall energy consumption in the United States. Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) can play a key role in decarbonizing the transportation sector, while the adoption of renewable energy sources (e.g., solar photovoltaics or PVs) could bring similar benefits to the residential energy sector and in turn support transport electrification. Although the market share for both EVs and PVs continue to grow, both these emerging technologies are deployed rather disjoint without considering the existence of potential similarities among users who own (or aspire to own) EVs and PVs. This might be due to lack of understanding of the behavioral interdependence in consumer preferences towards these technologies. To fill this gap in knowledge, this study utilizes data from the 2018 WholeTraveler Transportation Behavior Study to develop an integrated model system that explores EV and PV adoption behaviors. A structural equations model (SEM) is employed that incorporates direct effects as well as error correlations among the adoption behaviors for EVs and PVs. Model results indicate that the adoption behavior for both these technologies is indeed interconnected and significantly influenced by attitudes, values and personality traits. Findings from this research suggest that incentives (e.g., subsidies) that drive 'bundled' adoption of EVs and PVs could accelerate the adoption of both these sustainable technologies. The results highlights the need to consider transport and building energy efficient technology adoption behavior in a single integrated structure.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Natural Gas Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (™) and ComStock (™) models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - boiler replacement with air-source heat pump boiler with natural gas boiler backup. This measure replaces natural gas boilers for HVAC application by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and use natural gas boiler backup when the heat pump boiler could not operate due to outdoor air conditions which are below its cutoff temperature. This measure helps to quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 3. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 41%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 5.3%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

GCAM Base Year Update

In FY21 we worked to update the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to match historical energy consumption and technology cost trends and near-term economic growth expectations using available historical data out to 2019. We have done this in a way that builds the capacity to more easily update the model in the future to make GCAM a robust and readily updatable tool for decarbonization analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China

China’s progress in decarbonizing its transportation, particularly vehicle electrification, is notable. However, the economically effective pathways are underexplored. To find out how much cost is necessary for carbon neutrality for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, this study examines twenty decarbonization pathways, combining the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credit model and the China-Fleet model. We find that the 2060 zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goal for LDVs is achievable via electrification if the battery pack cost is under CNY483/kWh by 2050. However, an extra of CNY8.86 trillion internal subsidies is needed under pessimistic battery cost scenarios (CNY759/kWh in 2050) to eliminate 246 million tonnes of CO 2 -eq by 2050 ensuring over 80% market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2050. Moreover, the promotion of fuel cell electric vehicles is synergy with BEVs to mitigate the carbon abatement difficulties, decreasing up to 34% of the maximum marginal abatement internal investment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Occupancy schedule development and its effect on OpenStudio prototype college building model

College buildings have unique characteristics compared with school buildings. Therefore, defining the realistic occupancy schedule in a prototype college building has significant research opportunities. In this study, the actual operating schedules of each space type were collected and generated based on the class reservation schedule and compared with the previous reference schedule (primary/secondary school). Here, the schedules were analyzed for their effect on the OpenStudio prototype college building model. The findings highlight that the use of a typical school building schedule in a college building impairs the granularity of information. The analysis shows significant differences between the previous occupancy schedule and the updated occupancy schedule of the college building, leading to a considerable decrease in occupancy density. Furthermore, the effect of these occupancy pattern changes on the prototype building model is examined. The variations were observed in minimum ventilation requirements, the average mechanical ventilation rate, and energy consumption attributed to changes in occupancy density.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements and Advanced Air Sealing

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson, et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP) (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements. This measure combines a two-stage GHP with envelope improvements as a single package. As this package is a combination of two other measures, this document focused on documenting the results associated with this combination of technologies, with individual measure documents for two-stage GHPs and envelope improvements providing the information on the details of these measures. When the two technologies are combined, envelope improvements can modestly reduce energy consumption by a further 10%-15%, but also reduce the required size of the ground heat exchanger and heat pump by approximately 33% on average across all sites. The cost of installing envelope improvements in these homes is likely to be more than paid for by the reduction in equipment and drilling costs in these buildings for the majority of the stock.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Validation and Calibration of Energy Models with Real Vehicle Data from Chassis Dynamometer Experiments

Accurate estimation of vehicle fuel consumption typically requires detailed modeling of complex internal powertrain dynamics, often resulting in computationally intensive simulations. However, many transportation applications-such as traffic flow modeling, optimization, and control-require simplified models that are fast, interpretable, and easy to implement, while still maintaining fidelity to physical energy behavior. This work builds upon a recently developed model reduction pipeline that derives physics-like energy models from high-fidelity Autonomie vehicle simulations. These reduced models preserve essential vehicle dynamics, enabling realistic fuel consumption estimation with minimal computational overhead. While the reduced models have demonstrated strong agreement with their Autonomie counterparts, previous validation efforts have been confined to simulation environments. This study extends the validation by comparing the reduced energy model's outputs against real-world vehicle data. Focusing on the MidSUV category, we tune the baseline Autonomie model to closely replicate the characteristics of a Toyota RAV4. We then assess the accuracy of the resulting reduced model in estimating fuel consumption under actual drive conditions. Our findings suggest that, when the reference Autonomie model is properly calibrated, the simplified model produced by the reduction pipeline can provide reliable, semi-principled fuel rate estimates suitable for large-scale transportation applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER). This document builds on details established in the single-stage document (Maguire et al. 2025) to detail differences in the approach to modeling this higher efficiency, but more commonly deployed, type of geothermal heat pump. Specific EnergyPlus objects and product specific curves used are highlighted along with showing the results of this measure compared to the baseline and single-speed geothermal heat pumps. Two-speed geothermal heat pumps are able to save even more energy and on utility bills than single-speed products, albeit at the expense of a higher first cost.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Simulating Energy and Security Interactions in Semiconductor Manufacturing: Insights from the Intel Minifab Model

Semiconductor manufacturing is a highly complex. Fabrication plants must deal with re-entrant flows to support multiple types of wafers being produced simultaneously, each with their own deadlines and specifications. The manufacturing process itself depends upon the ability to control and programmatically adjust a variety of environmental conditions including temperature, humidity, and air quality. In addition, wafer fabrication consumes large amounts of electricity. Emerging technologies may help reduce the energy footprint of such facilities but can introduce cybersecurity risks. Therefore, this paper presents a modeling and simulation framework to quantify tradeoffs between operational measures of performance, energy consumption, and cybersecurity controls. We augment the Intel Minifab model, with the Purdue Enterprise Reference Architecture (PERA) for cybersecurity as well as tool-level energy consumption data from a real-world semiconductor manufacturing testbed. In this manner, we intend to provide stakeholders with a systematic, data-driven approach to evaluate emerging risks within the manufacturing process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

China’s Booming Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market—How Will It Continue?

The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is recognized as a pivotal component in transportation energy security and technology innovation in China. With government incentives and substantial capital investments, the Chinese PEV market has become one of the largest in the world. However, is this market boom ephemeral or will it be continuing? This chapter provides a general review of the Chinese PEV market mainly from the consumer per-spective, by summarizing the characteristics of the vehicle policies and consumer concerns in the PEV market in recent years. Moreover, it intro-duces detailed examples on how the policies, technologies, and infrastruc-ture shape the market. In addition to employing large amounts of reliable data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center for the review, the authors also adopted a quantitative analysis tool—the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits model—to project the potential in-dustrial impacts of the government policies in multiple scenarios. Based on the findings, it seems that the prosperity of the PEV market, incentivized by the government, will continue in the short run. The direct subsidies to PEV from the government will gradually phase out, and the supply-side push policies such as the dual-credit policy and other charging infrastruc-ture incentives will work as the invisible hand to force the automakers to invest more in the PEV segment. However, in the long run, innovation in PEV technology and business models, together with consumer acceptance will be the major factors that can sustain further market growth.

Ou, Shawn↗

Anhydrous volatile fatty acid extraction through omniphobic membranes by hydrophobic deep eutectic solvents: Mechanistic understanding and future perspective

Volatile fatty acids (VFAs) derived from arrested anaerobic digestion (AD) can be recovered as a valuable commodity for value-added synthesis. However, separating VFAs from digestate with complex constituents and a high-water content is an energy-prohibitive process. This study developed an innovative technology to overcome this barrier by integrating deep eutectic solvents (DESs) with an omniphobic membrane into a membrane contactor for efficient extraction of anhydrous VFAs with low energy consumption. Here, a kinetic model was developed to elucidate the mechanistic differences between this novel omniphobic membrane-enabled DES extraction and the previous hydrophobic membrane-enabled NaOH extraction. Experimental results and mechanistic modeling suggested that VFA extraction by the DES is a reversible adsorption process facilitating subsequent VFA separation via anhydrous distillation. High vapor pressure of shorter-chain VFAs and low Nernst distribution coefficients of longer-chain VFAs contributed to DES-driven extraction, which could enable continuous and in-situ recovery and conversion of VFAs from AD streams.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Near and long-term perspectives on strategies to decarbonize China's heavy-duty trucks through 2050

China needs to drastically reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), a key emitter in the growing transport sector, in order to address energy security concerns and meet its climate targets. We address existing research gaps by modeling feasibility, applicability, and energy and emissions impacts of multiple decarbonization strategies at different points in time. China still relies heavily on coal power, so impacts of new HDT technologies depend on the timing of their introduction relative to progress toward non-fossil power. We use a bottom-up model to simulate HDT energy consumption and CO 2 emissions through 2050. Results show that beginning to deploy battery electric and fuel-cell HDTs as early as 2020 and 2035, respectively, could achieve significant and the largest CO 2 emissions reduction by 2050 with a decarbonized power sector. However, viable near-term strategies-improving efficiency and logistics, switching to liquefied natural gas-could halve HDTs' current diesel consumption and CO 2 emissions by 2050. Our results underscore the need for a mix of near- and long-term policy and technology options to decarbonize China's HDTs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Comparison of multi-stage air treatment process divided by the same temperature and enthalpy difference

The multi-stage air treatment system has been proposed recently, and lower grade chilled/hot water could be used and energy efficiency could be improved. However, it has not been studied which division method of air treatment processes has higher energy efficiency. In this study, the model to calculate the energy consumption of multi-stage air treatment process is introduced, and the effects of two division methods, i.e. multi-stage air treatment process divided by the same temperature difference (ST method) or same enthalpy difference (SE method) between inlet and outlet at each stage, under 9 different air inlet parameters in the 2-stage and 3-stage air treatment processes are analysed and compared. The results show that (1) the system energy consumption of the SE method is generally lower than that of the ST method; (2) there is generally a larger energy consumption reduction rate of SE method when the air relative humidity is 70% compared to relative humidity of 50% and 90%; (3) the difference between ST method and SE method is not great, so both methods can be used for the design of multi-stage treatment system although SE method is normally recommended.

Wang, Wentao↗