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Spontaneous shock waves in pulse-stimulated flocks of Quincke rollers
Active matter demonstrates complex spatiotemporal self-organization not accessible at equilibrium and the emergence of collective behavior. Fluids comprised of microscopic Quincke rollers represent a popular realization of synthetic active matter. Temporal activity modulations, realized by modulated external electric fields, represent an effective tool to expand the variety of accessible dynamic states in active ensembles. Here, we report on the emergence of shockwave patterns composed of coherently moving particles energized by a pulsed electric field. The shockwaves emerge spontaneously and move faster than the average particle speed. Combining experiments, theory, and simulations, we demonstrate that the shockwaves originate from intermittent spontaneous vortex cores due to a vortex meandering instability. They occur when the rollers’ translational and rotational decoherence times, regulated by the electric pulse durations, become comparable. The phenomenon does not rely on the presence of confinement, and multiple shock waves continuously arise and vanish in the system.
Vibrational Entropy of Crystalline Solids from Covariance of Atomic Displacements
The vibrational entropy of a solid at finite temperature is investigated from the perspective of information theory. Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations generate ensembles of atomic configurations at finite temperature from which we obtain the N-body distribution of atomic displacements, ρN. We calculate the information-theoretic entropy from the expectation value of lnρN. At a first level of approximation, treating individual atomic displacements independently, our method may be applied using Debye–Waller B-factors, allowing diffraction experiments to obtain an upper bound on the thermodynamic entropy. At the next level of approximation we correct the overestimation through inclusion of displacement covariances. We apply this approach to elemental body-centered cubic sodium and face-centered cubic aluminum, showing good agreement with experimental values above the Debye temperatures of the metals. Below the Debye temperatures, we extract an effective vibrational density of states from eigenvalues of the covariance matrix, and then evaluate the entropy quantum mechanically, again yielding good agreement with experiment down to low temperatures. Our method readily generalizes to complex solids, as we demonstrate for a high entropy alloy. Further, our method applies in cases where the quasiharmonic approximation fails, as we demonstrate by calculating the HCP/BCC transition in Ti.
Predictability and Dynamics of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Explored through Convection-Permitting Ensemble Sensitivity Experiments
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A stochastic-dynamical approach to the study of the natural variability of the climate
A method, suggested by Leith (1975), which employed stochastic-dynamic forecasts obtained from a general circulation model in such a way as to satisfy the definition of climatic noise, was used to validate assumptions accounting for the effects of external influences in estimating the climatic noise. Two assumptions were investigated: (1) that the weather fluctuations can be represented as a Markov process, and (2) that changing external conditions do not influence the atmosphere's statistical properties on short time scales. The general circulation model's simulation of the daily weather fluctuations was generated by performing integrations with prescribed climatological boundary conditions for random initial atmospheric states, with resulting dynamical forecasts providing an ensemble of simulated data for the autoregressive modeling of weather fluctuations. To estimate the climatic noise from the observational data (consisting of hourly values of sea level pressure and surface temperature at 54 U.S. stations for the month of January for the years 1949-1975) use of the short time-scale assumption is made. The simulated and observed data were found not to be consistent with either white noise or a Markov process of weather fluctuations. Good agreement was found between the results of the hypothetical testing of the simulated and the observed surface temperatures; and only partial support was found for the short time-scale assumption, i.e., for sea level pressure.
A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Coupling Between Neural Components: Evaluation of the Multiple Component, Event-Related Potential (mcERP) Algorithm
Accurate measurement of single-trial responses is key to a definitive use of complex electromagnetic and hemodynamic measurements in the investigation of brain dynamics. We developed the multiple component, Event-Related Potential (mcERP) approach to single-trial response estimation. To improve our resolution of dynamic interactions between neuronal ensembles located in different layers within a cortical region and/or in different cortical regions. The mcERP model assets that multiple components defined as stereotypic waveforms comprise the stimulus-evoked response and that these components may vary in amplitude and latency from trial to trial. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) solutions for the model are obtained by iterating a set of equations derived from the posterior probability. Our first goal was to use the ANTWERP algorithm to analyze interactions (specifically latency and amplitude correlation) between responses in different layers within a cortical region. Thus, we evaluated the model by applying the algorithm to synthetic data containing two correlated local components and one independent far-field component. Three cases were considered: the local components were correlated by an interaction in their single-trial amplitudes, by an interaction in their single-trial latencies, or by an interaction in both amplitude and latency. We then analyzed the accuracy with which the algorithm estimated the component waveshapes and the single-trial parameters as a function of the linearity of each of these relationships. Extensions of these analyses to real data are discussed as well as ongoing work to incorporate more detailed prior information.
Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting
A 'lagged average forecast' (LAF) model is developed for stochastic dynamic weather forecasting and used for predictions in comparison with the results of a Monte Carlo forecast (MCF). The technique involves the calculation of sample statistics from an ensemble of forecasts, with each ensemble member being an ordinary dynamical forecast (ODF). Initial conditions at a time lagging the start of the forecast period are used, with varying amounts of time for the lags. Forcing by asymmetric Newtonian heating of the lower layer is used in a two-layer, f-plane, highly truncated spectral model in a test forecasting run. Both the LAF and MCF are found to be more accurate than the ODF due to ensemble averaging with the MCF and the LAF. When a regression filter is introduced, all models become more accurate, with the LAF model giving the best results. The possibility of generating monthly or seasonal forecasts with the LAF is discussed.
Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics
This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.
Data-guided Multi-Map variables for ensemble refinement of molecular movies
Driving molecular dynamics simulations with data-guided collective variables offer a promising strategy to recover thermodynamic information from structure-centric experiments. In this study, the three-dimensional electron density of a protein, as it would be determined by cryo-EM or x-ray crystallography, is used to achieve simultaneously free-energy costs of conformational transitions and refined atomic structures. Unlike previous density-driven molecular dynamics methodologies that determine only the best map-model fits, our work employs the recently developed Multi-Map methodology to monitor concerted movements within equilibrium, non-equilibrium, and enhanced sampling simulations. Construction of all-atom ensembles along the chosen values of the Multi-Map variable enables simultaneous estimation of average properties, as well as real-space refinement of the structures contributing to such averages. Using three proteins of increasing size, we demonstrate that biased simulation along the reaction coordinates derived from electron densities can capture conformational transitions between known intermediates. The simulated pathways appear reversible with minimal hysteresis and require only low-resolution density information to guide the transition. The induced transitions also produce estimates for free energy differences that can be directly compared to experimental observables and population distributions. The refined model quality is superior compared to those found in the Protein Data Bank. We find that the best quantitative agreement with experimental free-energy differences is obtained using medium resolution density information coupled to comparatively large structural transitions. Practical considerations for probing the transitions between multiple intermediate density states are also discussed.
Ordering of room-temperature magnetic skyrmions in a polar van der Waals magnet
Abstract Control and understanding of ensembles of skyrmions is important for realization of future technologies. In particular, the order-disorder transition associated with the 2D lattice of magnetic skyrmions can have significant implications for transport and other dynamic functionalities. To date, skyrmion ensembles have been primarily studied in bulk crystals, or as isolated skyrmions in thin film devices. Here, we investigate the condensation of the skyrmion phase at room temperature and zero field in a polar, van der Waals magnet. We demonstrate that we can engineer an ordered skyrmion crystal through structural confinement on the μ m scale, showing control over this order-disorder transition on scales relevant for device applications.
Quantifying uncertainty for deep learning based forecasting and flow-reconstruction using neural architecture search ensembles
Classical problems in computational physics such as data-driven forecasting and signal reconstruction from sparse sensors have recently seen an explosion in deep neural network (DNN) based algorithmic approaches. However, most DNN models do not provide uncertainty estimates, which are crucial for establishing the trustworthiness of these techniques in downstream decision making tasks and scenarios. In recent years, ensemble-based methods have achieved significant success for the uncertainty quantification in DNNs on a number of benchmark problems. However, their performance on real-world applications remains under-explored. In this work, we present an automated approach to DNN discovery and demonstrate how this may also be utilized for ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. Specifically, we propose the use of a scalable neural and hyperparameter architecture search for discovering an ensemble of DNN models for complex dynamical systems. We highlight how the proposed method not only discovers high-performing neural network ensembles for our tasks, but also quantifies uncertainty seamlessly. This is achieved by using genetic algorithms and Bayesian optimization for sampling the search space of neural network architectures and hyperparameters. Subsequently, a model selection approach is used to identify candidate models for an ensemble set construction. Afterwards, a variance decomposition approach is used to estimate the uncertainty of the predictions from the ensemble. We demonstrate the feasibility of this framework for two tasks — forecasting from historical data and flow reconstruction from sparse sensors for the sea-surface temperature. In conclusion, we demonstrate superior performance from the ensemble in contrast with individual high-performing models and other benchmarks.
Using Ensemble Data Assimilation to Estimate Transient Hydrologic Exchange Flow Under Highly Dynamic Flow Conditions
Abstract Quantifying dynamic hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) within river corridors that experience high‐frequency flow variations caused by dam regulations is important for understanding the biogeochemical processes at the river water and groundwater interfaces. Heat has been widely used as a tracer to infer steady‐state flow velocities through analytical solutions of heat transport defined by the diurnal temperature signals. Under sub‐daily dynamic flow conditions, however, such analytical solutions are not applicable due to the violation of their fundamental assumptions. In this study, we developed a data assimilation‐based approach to estimate the sub‐daily flux under highly dynamic flow conditions using multi‐depth temperature observations at a 5‐min resolution. If the hydraulic gradient is measured, Darcy's law was used to calculate the flux with permeability estimated from temperature responses below the riverbed. Otherwise, flux was estimated directly by assimilating multi‐depth temperature data at 1‐ or 2‐hr time intervals assuming one‐dimensional flow and heat transport governing equation. By comparing estimated fluxes with model‐generated synthetic truth, we demonstrated that both schemes have robust performance in estimating fluxes under highly dynamic flow conditions. This data assimilation‐based flux estimation method was able to capture the vertical sub‐daily fluxes using multi‐depth high‐resolution temperature data alone, even in the presence of multi‐dimensional flow. This approach has been successfully applied to real field temperature data collected at the Hanford site, which experiences highly dynamic HEFs. Our study shows the promise of adopting distributed 1‐D temperature monitoring to capture spatial and temporal exchange dynamics in river corridors at a watershed scale or beyond.
A Finite-Time Ensemble Method for Mixed Layer Model Comparison
Here, this work evaluates the fidelity of various upper-ocean turbulence parameterizations subject to realistic monsoon forcing and presents a finite-time ensemble vector (EV) method to better manage the design and numerical principles of these parameterizations. The EV method emphasizes the dynamics of a turbulence closure multimodel ensemble and is applied to evaluate 10 different ocean surface boundary layer (OSBL) parameterizations within a single-column (SC) model against two boundary layer large-eddy simulations (LES). Both LES include realistic surface forcing, but one includes wind-driven shear turbulence only, while the other includes additional Stokes forcing through the wave-average equations that generate Langmuir turbulence. The finite-time EV framework focuses on what constitutes the local behavior of the mixed layer dynamical system and isolates the forcing and ocean state conditions where turbulence parameterizations most disagree. Identifying disagreement provides the potential to evaluate SC models comparatively against the LES. Observations collected during the 2018 monsoon onset in the Bay of Bengal provide a case study to evaluate models under realistic and variable forcing conditions. The case study results highlight two regimes where models disagree 1) during wind-driven deepening of the mixed layer and 2) under strong diurnal forcing.
Ligand efficacy shifts a nuclear receptor conformational ensemble between transcriptionally active and repressive states
Abstract Nuclear receptors (NRs) are thought to dynamically alternate between transcriptionally active and repressive conformations, which are stabilized upon ligand binding. Most NR ligand series exhibit limited bias, primarily consisting of transcriptionally active agonists or neutral antagonists, but not repressive inverse agonists—a limitation that restricts understanding of the functional NR conformational ensemble. Here, we report a NR ligand series for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ) that spans a pharmacological spectrum from repression (inverse agonism) to activation (agonism) where subtle structural modifications switch compound activity. While crystal structures provide snapshots of the fully repressive state, NMR spectroscopy and conformation-activity relationship analysis reveals that compounds within the series shift the PPARγ conformational ensemble between transcriptionally active and repressive conformations that are natively populated in the apo/ligand-free ensemble. Our findings reveal a molecular framework for minimal chemical modifications that enhance PPARγ inverse agonism and elucidate their influence on the dynamic PPARγ conformational ensemble.
Statistical theory of cubic Langmuir turbulence
The cubic direct interaction approximation is applied to a truncated (in Fourier space) version of the cubically nonlinear Schroedinger equation model of Langmuir physics. The results are compared (in the three-mode case) to those for an ensemble of numerical solutions of the dynamical equations with 10,000 different sets of Gaussianly distributed initial conditions. In the undriven, undamped case, the statistical theory (but not the ensemble) evolves to a state of thermal equilibrium. In the driven, damped case, the statistical theory appears to evolve to a state close to that corresponding to one of the limit cycles of the dynamical equations.
Reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters
This paper introduces a computational framework to reconstruct and forecast a partially observed state that evolves according to an unknown or expensive-to-simulate dynamical system. Our reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters (ROAD-EnKFs) learn a latent low-dimensional surrogate model for the dynamics and a decoder that maps from the latent space to the state space. The learned dynamics and decoder are then used within an EnKF to reconstruct and forecast the state. Numerical experiments show that if the state dynamics exhibit a hidden low-dimensional structure, ROAD-EnKFs achieve higher accuracy at lower computational cost compared to existing methods. If such structure is not expressed in the latent state dynamics, ROAD-EnKFs achieve similar accuracy at lower cost, making them a promising approach for surrogate state reconstruction and forecasting.
Analytic and numerical vibronic spectra from quasi-classical trajectory ensembles
The truncated Wigner approximation to quantum dynamics in phase space is explored in the context of computing vibronic line shapes for monomer linear optical spectra. We consider multiple model potential forms including a shifted harmonic oscillator with both equal and unequal frequencies on the ground and excited state potentials as well as a shifted Morse potential model. For the equal-frequency shifted harmonic oscillator model, we derive an analytic expression for the exact vibronic line shape that emphasizes the importance of using a quantum mechanical distribution of phase space initial conditions. For the unequal-frequency shifted harmonic oscillator model, we are no longer able to obtain an exact expression for the vibronic line shape in terms of independent deterministic classical trajectories. We show how one can rigorously account for corrections to the truncated Wigner approximation through nonlinear responses of the line shape function to momentum fluctuations along a classical trajectory and demonstrate the qualitative improvement in the resulting spectrum when the leading-order quantum correction is included. Finally, we numerically simulate absorption spectra of a highly anharmonic shifted Morse potential model. We find that, while finite quantization and the dissociation limit are captured with reasonable accuracy, there is a qualitative breakdown of the quasi-classical trajectory ensemble’s ability to describe the vibronic line shape when the relative shift in Morse potentials becomes large. The work presented here provides clarity on the origin of unphysical negative features known to contaminate absorption spectra computed with quasi-classical trajectory ensembles.
Models and Algorithms for Equilibrium Analysis of Mixed-Material Nucleic Acid Systems
Dynamic programming algorithms within the NUPACK software suite enable analysis of equilibrium base-pairing properties for complex and test tube ensembles containing arbitrary numbers of interacting nucleic acid strands. Currently, calculations are limited to single-material systems that are either all-RNA or all-DNA. Here, to enable analysis of mixed-material systems that are critical for modern applications in vitro, in situ, and in vivo, we develop physical models and dynamic programming algorithms that allow the material of the system to be specified at nucleotide resolution. Free energy parameter sets are constructed for both RNA/DNA and RNA/2'OMe-RNA mixed-material systems by combining available empirical mixed-material parameters with single-material parameter sets to enable treatment of the full complex and test tube ensembles. New dynamic programming recursions account for the material of each nucleotide throughout the recursive process. For a complex with N nucleotides, the mixed-material dynamic programming algorithms maintain the O(N 3 ) time complexity of the single-material algorithms, enabling efficient calculation of diverse physical quantities over complex and test tube ensembles (e.g., complex partition function, equilibrium complex concentrations, equilibrium base-pairing probabilities, minimum free energy secondary structure(s), and Boltzmann-sampled secondary structures) at a cost increase of roughly 2.0-3.5×. The results of existing single-material algorithms are exactly reproduced when applying the new mixed-material algorithms to single-material systems. Accuracy is significantly enhanced using mixed-material models and algorithms to predict RNA/DNA and RNA/2'OMe-RNA duplex melting temperatures from the experimental literature as well as RNA/DNA melt profiles from new experiments. In conclusion, mixed-material analyses can be performed online using the NUPACK web app (www.nupack.org) or locally using the NUPACK Python module.