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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time, Adaptive Radiological Anomaly Detection and Isotope Identification Using Non-Negative Matrix Factorization

Spectroscopic anomaly detection and isotope identification algorithms are integral components in nuclear nonproliferation applications such as search operations. The task is especially challenging in the case of mobile detector systems because the observed gamma-ray background changes more than for a static detector system, and a pretrained background model can easily find itself out of domain. The result is that algorithms may exceed their intended false alarm rate or sacrifice detection sensitivity to maintain the desired false alarm rate. Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a powerful tool for spectral anomaly detection and identification, but, like many similar algorithms that rely on data-driven background models, in its conventional implementation, it is unable to update in real time to account for environmental changes that affect the background spectroscopic signature. Here, we have developed a novel NMF-based algorithm that periodically updates its background model to accommodate changing environmental conditions. The adaptive NMF algorithm involves fewer assumptions about its environment, making it more generalizable than existing NMF-based methods while maintaining or exceeding detection performance on simulated and real-world datasets.

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating Single-Molecule Fluorescence Spectral Heterogeneity of Rhodamines Using High-Throughput Single-Molecule Spectroscopy

We experimentally investigated several intra-molecular coordinate and environmental changes as potential causes of single-molecule fluorescence spectral heterogeneities (smFSH). Here, we developed a high-throughput single-molecule spectroscopy technique to analyze more than 5,000 single-molecule emission spectra from each of nine commonly used fluorophores with different structural rigidities deposited on substrates with different polarities. We observed an unexpected high smFSH from structurally rigid Rhodamine B compared with a structurally flexible Cyanine dye - Alexa Fluor 647. Based on experimentally measured smFSH, we ruled out the system’s noise uncertainty, single-molecule spectral diffusion, and environmental polarity as the primary causes of the high smFSH. We found that the rotational flexibility of N, N-dialkylated groups contributed to the smFSH. With the high smFSH observed in structurally more rigid model fluorophores, we speculated that other intra-molecular coordinate and environmental changes might also contribute to the high smFSH in Rhodamines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2006

Anomaly Recovery and the Mars Exploration Rovers

The premise of the design of operations for the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) is that the vehicles will drive each day. As a result, they will encounter some aspect of the terrain environment that cannot be anticipated or otherwise accommodated by the sequences linked onboard that day. The operations team then must correct the problem by planning then commanding the execution of a different drive the next day. Often other aspects of the operation on the surface of Mars: environmental changes, component degradation, errors in sequence design or execution, etc., lead to anomalies which must be addressed before normal operations can resume. The operational design that makes it possible to recover from a driving error each day also reduces the time needed to recover from anomalies. As an example of the efficiency achieved, less than 5% (about 30 sols out of 700 sols of operations) of the time on the surface has been devoted to recovery from anomalies for each vehicle. In this paper the major anomalies experienced by the MER rovers will be recounted and the streamlined approaches to addressing these problems described. The operational flexibility developed for these missions is also a function of the system design that anticipated a number of likely faults and conditions arising from uncertainty in sequence execution and environmental change. This design will be described as well as the considerations in operation that motivated this design. These considerations will likely be present in any future surface mission.

rovers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Soil Organic Matter Stabilization by Polyvalent Cations in a Buried Alkaline Soil

Buried paleosols can store large quantities of organic carbon (C), much of which persists for millennia due to isolation from surface processes that promote decomposition. Subsoil organic matter (SOM) persistence is often enhanced by mineral associations and ionic conditions—particularly high clay content and polyvalent cations—that limit microbial degradation and leaching. However, the vulnerability of these deep C stocks under erosion or environmental change remains poorly understood. This study investigates controls on SOM stabilization in the Brady paleosol and overlying modern soils across contrasting geomorphic settings in the Great Plains of Nebraska where Late Quaternary loess deposition and erosion created a sequence of buried and exposed paleosols. We sampled soils along burial and erosional toposequences and analyzed their physicochemical properties and radiocarbon‐based persistence of occluded particulate organic matter (oPOM) and mineral fractions (MF). Brady paleosol showed greater persistence (lower Fm) of oPOM and MF than modern soils, particularly under burial. This was linked to higher silt and clay content, elevated electrical conductivity, and increased exchangeable calcium and magnesium content, supporting roles for organo‐mineral interactions, flocculation, and carbonate cementation. In modern soils, SOM persistence and C content were more strongly tied to pH and cation exchange capacity. Erosional exposure reduced SOM stability and promoted geochemical convergence toward modern surface soils. These findings show that burial enhances SOM persistence via multiple stabilization mechanisms, while erosion increases subsoil C vulnerability. Our results underscore the importance of geomorphic and geochemical context in predicting soil C stability under environmental change.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Eco-evolutionary optimality as a means to improve vegetation and land-surface models

Global vegetation and land-surface models embody interdisciplinary scientific understanding of the behaviour of plants and ecosystems, and are indispensable to project the impacts of environmental change on vegetation and the interactions between vegetation and climate. Furthermore, systematic errors and persistently large differences among carbon and water cycle projections by different models highlight the limitations of current process formulations. In this review, focusing on core plant functions in the terrestrial carbon and water cycles, we show how unifying hypotheses derived from eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) principles can provide novel, parameter-sparse representations of plant and vegetation processes. We present case studies that demonstrate how EEO generates parsimonious representations of core, leaf-level processes that are individually testable and supported by evidence. EEO approaches to photosynthesis and primary production, dark respiration and stomatal behaviour are ripe for implementation in global models. EEO approaches to other important traits, including the leaf economics spectrum and applications of EEO at the community level are active research areas. Independently tested modules emerging from EEO studies could profitably be integrated into modelling frameworks that account for the multiple time scales on which plants and plant communities adjust to environmental change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Plant diversity and functional identity drive grassland rhizobacterial community responses after 15 years of CO 2 and nitrogen enrichment

Abstract Improved understanding of bacterial community responses to multiple environmental filters over long time periods is a fundamental step to develop mechanistic explanations of plant–bacterial interactions as environmental change progresses. This is the first study to examine responses of grassland root‐associated bacterial communities to 15 years of experimental manipulations of plant species richness, functional group and factorial enrichment of atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ) and soil nitrogen (+N). Across the experiment, plant species richness was the strongest predictor of rhizobacterial community composition, followed by +N, with no observed effect of eCO 2 . Monocultures of C 3 and C 4 grasses and legumes all exhibited dissimilar rhizobacterial communities within and among those groups. Functional responses were also dependent on plant functional group, where N 2 ‐fixation genes, NO 3− ‐reducing genes and P‐solubilizing predicted gene abundances increased under resource‐enriched conditions for grasses, but generally declined for legumes. In diverse plots with 16 plant species, the interaction of eCO 2 +N altered rhizobacterial composition, while +N increased the predicted abundance of nitrogenase‐encoding genes, and eCO 2 +N increased the predicted abundance of bacterial P‐solubilizing genes. Synthesis : Our findings suggest that rhizobacterial community structure and function will be affected by important global environmental change factors such as eCO 2 , but these responses are primarily contingent on plant species richness and the selective influence of different plant functional groups.

Revillini, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2026

Vicennial metagenomic time series unveils evolutionary dynamics of giant viruses in a freshwater ecosystem

Giant viruses play crucial ecological roles in aquatic ecosystems, yet their evolutionary dynamics in response to environmental changes, particularly in freshwater environments, are not well understood. We analyzed a 20-year time series (2000-2019) of 471 co-assembled metagenomes from Lake Mendota (USA) to reconstruct 1512 giant virus metagenome-assembled genomes, providing insights into viral genome evolution. Viruses in the order Imitervirales dominate the virome, remaining consistent across seasons and years. Our findings reveal gene duplication (23% of genes) and horizontal gene transfer (29% of genes) as key drivers of genomic innovation. A co-occurrence network analysis indicates increased virus-host interactions following the introduction of an invasive predatory zooplankton in 2009, highlighting potential hosts in Bigyra, Perkinsea, and Euglenozoa. While single nucleotide polymorphism analysis shows predominantly purifying selection in viral genes, there is a significant increase in positively selected genes post-invasion, particularly those related to infection. Comparative evolutionary analyses reveal that giant viruses exhibit genome-wide substitution rates similar to co-occurring bacteria but significantly slower than smaller dsDNA phages, suggesting both stability and adaptability. Our study demonstrates that freshwater giant viruses employ various evolutionary strategies to respond to environmental change. These results underscore their significant yet often underappreciated role in freshwater ecosystem dynamics.

Vasquez, Yumary M↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of the Coral Microbiome: the Influence of Temperature and Microbial Network

Host-associated microbial communities are shaped by extrinsic and intrinsic factors to the holobiont organism. Environmental factors and microbe-microbe interactions act simultaneously on the microbial community structure, making the microbiome dynamics challenging to predict. The coral microbiome is essential to the health of coral reefs and sensitive to environmental changes. Here, we develop a dynamic model to determine the microbial community structure associated with the surface mucus layer (SML) of corals using temperature as an extrinsic factor and microbial network as an intrinsic factor. The model was validated by comparing the predicted relative abundances of microbial taxa to the relative abundances of microbial taxa from the sample data. The SML microbiome from Pseudodiploria strigosa was collected across reef zones in Bermuda, where inner and outer reefs are exposed to distinct thermal profiles. A shotgun metagenomics approach was used to describe the taxonomic composition and the microbial network of the coral SML microbiome. By simulating the annual temperature fluctuations at each reef zone, the model output is statistically identical to the observed data. The model was further applied to six scenarios that combined different profiles of temperature and microbial network to investigate the influence of each of these two factors on the model accuracy. The SML microbiome was best predicted by model scenarios with the temperature profile that was closest to the local thermal environment, regardless of the microbial network profile. Our model shows that the SML microbiome of P. strigosa in Bermuda is primarily structured by seasonal fluctuations in temperature at a reef scale, while the microbial network is a secondary driver. Coral microbiome dysbiosis (i.e., shifts in the microbial community structure or complete loss of microbial symbionts) caused by environmental changes is a key player in the decline of coral health worldwide. Multiple factors in the water column and the surrounding biological community influence the dynamics of the coral microbiome. However, by including only temperature as an external factor, our model proved to be successful in describing the microbial community associated with the surface mucus layer (SML) of the coral P. strigosa. The dynamic model developed and validated in this study is a potential tool to predict the coral microbiome under different temperature conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stoichiometrically coupled carbon and nitrogen cycling in the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization model version 1.0 (MIMICS-CN v1.0)

Explicit consideration of microbial physiology in soil biogeochemical models that represent coupled carbon–nitrogen dynamics presents opportunities to deepen understanding of ecosystem responses to environmental change. The MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model explicitly represents microbial physiology and physicochemical stabilization of soil carbon (C) on regional and global scales. Here we present a new version of MIMICS with coupled C and nitrogen (N) cycling through litter, microbial, and soil organic matter (SOM) pools. The model was parameterized and validated against C and N data from the Long-Term Inter-site Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET; six litter types, 10 years of observations, and 13 sites across North America). The model simulates C and N losses from litterbags in the LIDET study with reasonable accuracy (C: R 2 =0.63; N: R 2 =0.29), which is comparable with simulations from the DAYCENT model that implicitly represents microbial activity (C: R 2 =0.67; N: R 2 =0.30). Subsequently, we evaluated equilibrium values of stocks (total soil C and N, microbial biomass C and N, inorganic N) and microbial process rates (soil heterotrophic respiration, N mineralization) simulated by MIMICS-CN across the 13 simulated LIDET sites against published observations from other continent-wide datasets. We found that MIMICS-CN produces equilibrium values in line with measured values, showing that the model generates plausible estimates of ecosystem soil biogeochemical dynamics across continental-scale gradients. MIMICS-CN provides a platform for coupling C and N projections in a microbially explicit model, but experiments still need to identify the physiological and stoichiometric characteristics of soil microbes, especially under environmental change scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interannual consistency of migration phenology is season- and breeding region-specific in North American Golden Eagles

Abstract Interannual consistency (an indicator of the strength of adjustments) in migration phenology of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in North America is most strongly associated with the breeding region, the season, and with late-season temperature on breeding and wintering grounds. Consistency was greatest in boreal spring migration and the breeding regions of eastern Canada. Using multi-year GPS tracks of 83 adults breeding in 3 spatially distant regions (Alaska, northeast Canada, and southeast Canada), we quantified the interannual consistency of migration phenology and wintering latitude within and among individuals tracked across multiple years and the repeatability (r) by breeding regions and seasons. By comparing regions and seasons, we found that consistency was highest (r > 0.85) for boreal spring migration in eastern Canada while Alaska had the lowest value (r < 0.15). Because seasonal consistency of migration phenology was only detected in eastern Canada, we conclude that seasonal features are not a primary constraint. While regional differences in consistency were not related to differences in migratory distances, they could be the result of genetic or habitat differences. We also found that temperatures warmer than the decadal average at the region of departure delayed the start of boreal spring migration by ~10 days and advanced boreal autumn migration by ~20 days. These results suggest that warmer temperatures would reduce residence time on breeding grounds, contrary to expectations and trends found in other studies. Wide variations in migratory strategies across a species distribution can add to the list of challenges for conservation but may give migrants the capacity to acclimate to environmental changes.

Zoology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (Pace) Mission Overview: From Concept to Launch

Abstract for Technical Review: The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission is a strategic climate continuity mission that was defined in the 2010 document Responding to the Challenge of Climate and Environmental Change: NASA’s Plan for Climate-Centric Architecture for Earth Observations and Applications from Space (referred to as the “Climate Initiative”). Launched in February 2024, the PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean biology, clouds, and aerosol data records. PACE will extend the high quality ocean ecological, ocean biogeochemical, cloud, and aerosol particle data records begun by NASA in the 1990s, building on the exceptional heritages of the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). NASA Headquarters directed the mission development and implementation to the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) with guidance to utilize a Design-to-Cost (DTC) process. Mission studies were conducted to define appropriate approaches within and across elements while maximizing science capabilities at a high cost confidence. Mission baseline requirements development is also embedded within the DTC process, as these requirements were not established at the onset of the mission concept development. The PACE project office at NASA’s GSFC was responsible for the satellite development, launch and commissioning. The NASA Headquarters PACE Program Science office is responsible for supporting the science data processing system and assembling competed community science teams, which includes field-based vicarious calibration and data product validation efforts to support the PACE Project Science team. The PACE observatory is comprised of three instruments, the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) and two polarimeters, the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2 (HARP2) and the Spectro-Polarimeter for Exploration (SPEXone) and the PACE spacecraft. The observatory has been commissioned and is performing on-orbit science data collection operations. Summary for Program: The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission is a strategic climate continuity mission that was defined in the 2010 document Responding to the Challenge of Climate and Environmental Change: NASA’s Plan for Climate-Centric Architecture for Earth Observations and Applications from Space (referred to as the “Climate Initiative”). Launched in February 2024 under the leadership of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean biology, clouds, and aerosol data records. PACE will extend the high quality ocean ecological, ocean biogeochemical, cloud, and aerosol particle data records begun by NASA in the 1990s. The PACE observatory is comprised of the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2 (HARP2) and the Spectro-Polarimeter for Exploration (SPEXone), along with the PACE spacecraft.

Robert H Estep, Jr↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mission Overview and Status from Concept to Launch

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission is a strategic climate continuity mission that was defined in the 2010 document Responding to the Challenge of Climate and Environmental Change: NASA’s Plan for Climate-Centric Architecture for Earth Observations and Applications from Space (referred to as the “Climate Initiative”). Launched in February 2024, the PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean biology, clouds, and aerosol data records. PACE will extend the high quality ocean ecological, ocean biogeochemical, cloud, and aerosol particle data records begun by NASA in the 1990s, building on the exceptional heritages of the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). NASA Headquarters directed the mission development and implementation to the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) with guidance to utilize a Design-to-Cost (DTC) process. Mission studies were conducted to define appropriate approaches within and across elements while maximizing science capabilities at a high cost confidence. Mission baseline requirements development is also embedded within the DTC process, as these requirements were not established at the onset of the mission concept development. The PACE project office at NASA’s GSFC was responsible for the satellite development, launch and commissioning. The NASA Headquarters PACE Program Science office is responsible for supporting the science data processing system and assembling competed community science teams, which includes field-based vicarious calibration and data product validation efforts to support the PACE Project Science team. The PACE observatory is comprised of three instruments, the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) and two polarimeters, the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2 (HARP2) and the Spectro-Polarimeter for Exploration (SPEXone) and the PACE spacecraft. The observatory has been commissioned and is performing on-orbit science data collection operations. Summary for Program: The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission is a strategic climate continuity mission that was defined in the 2010 document Responding to the Challenge of Climate and Environmental Change: NASA’s Plan for Climate-Centric Architecture for Earth Observations and Applications from Space (referred to as the “Climate Initiative”). Launched in February 2024 under the leadership of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean biology, clouds, and aerosol data records. PACE will extend the high quality ocean ecological, ocean biogeochemical, cloud, and aerosol particle data records begun by NASA in the 1990s. The PACE observatory is comprised of the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2 (HARP2) and the Spectro-Polarimeter for Exploration (SPEXone), along with the PACE spacecraft.

Robby Estep↗
DOE OSTI2021

Downscaling SSP-consistent global spatial urban land projections from 1/8-degree to 1-km resolution 2000–2100

Abstract Long-term, spatial urban land projections that simultaneously offer global coverage and local-scale empirical accuracy are rare. Recently a set of such projections was produced using data-science-based simulations and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These projections update at decadal time intervals from 2000 to 2100 with a spatial resolution of 1/8 degree, while many socio-environmental studies customarily run their analysis and modelling at finer spatial resolutions, e.g. 1-km. Here we develop and validate an algorithm to downscale the 1/8-degree spatial urban land projections to the 1-km resolution. The algorithm uses an iterative process to allocate the decadal amount of urban land expansion originally projected for each 1/8-degree grid to its constituent 1-km grids. The results are a set of global maps showing urban land fractions at the 1-km resolution, updated at decadal intervals from 2000 to 2100, under five different urban land expansion scenarios consistent with the SSPs. The data can support studies of potential interactions between future urbanization and environmental changes across spatial and temporal scales.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1991

Visual analysis of fluid dynamics at NASA's numerical aerodynamic simulation facility

A study aimed at describing and illustrating visualization tools used in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and indicating how these tools are likely to change by showing a projected resolution of the human computer interface is presented. The following are outlined using a graphically based test format: the revolution of human computer environments for CFD research; comparison of current environments; current environments with the ideal; predictions for the future CFD environments; what can be done to accelerate the improvements. The following comments are given: when acquiring visualization tools, potential rapid changes must be considered; environmental changes over the next ten years due to human computer interface cannot be fathomed; data flow packages such as AVS, apE, Explorer and Data Explorer are easy to learn and use for small problems, excellent for prototyping, but not so efficient for large problems; the approximation techniques used in visualization software must be appropriate for the data; it has become more cost effective to move jobs that fit on workstations and run only memory intensive jobs on the supercomputer; use of three dimensional skills will be maximized when the three dimensional environment is built in from the start.

Watson, Velvin R.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Monitoring Oceanic Islands Via Radarsat Imaging Radar

Oceanic islands represent an often overlooked aspect of the land surface of Earth, yet they are sensitive, natural laboratories for investigating the impacts of environmental change on landscapes and land-cover systems. For this reason, we have utilized the Canadian Space Agency's RADARSAT satellite to initiate a program for monitoring the landscapes of approximately 20 oceanic islands as part of the RADARSAT Background Mission. To date, we have analyzed high resolution SAR images of 12 islands that extend from the Arctic, throughout the Atlantic and Southern Indian oceans, and into the equatorial Pacific. We have selected islands for monitoring on the basis of their known or suspected history of landscape change in association with environmental factors or anthropogenic effects.

Garvin, James B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Merging IceSAT GLAS and Terra MODIS Data in Order to Derive Forest Type Specific Tree Heights in the Central Siberian Boreal Forest

Mapping of boreal forest's type, biomass, and other structural parameters are critical for understanding of the boreal forest's significance in the carbon cycle, its response to and impact on global climate change. We believe the nature of the forest structure information available from MISR and GLAS can be used to help identify forest type, age class, and estimate above ground biomass levels beyond that now possible with MODIS alone. The ground measurements will be used to develop relationships between remote sensing observables and forest characteristics and provide new information for understanding forest changes with respect to environmental change. Lidar is a laser altimeter that determines the distance from the instrument to the physical surface by measuring the time elapsed between the pulse emission and the reflected return. Other studies have shown that the returned signal may identify multiple returns originating from trees, building and other objects and permits the calculation of their height. Studies using field data have shown that lidar data can provide estimates of structural parameters such as biomass, stand volume and leaf area index and allows remarkable differentiation between primary and secondary forest. NASA's IceSAT Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) was launched in January 2003 and collected data during February and September of that year. This study used data acquired over our study sites in central Siberia to examine the GLAS signal as a source of forest height and other structural characteristics. The purpose of our Siberia project is to improve forest cover maps and produce above-ground biomass maps of the boreal forest in Northern Eurasia from MODIS by incorporating structural information inherent in the Terra MISR and ICESAT Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instruments. A number of forest cover classifications exist for the boreal forest. We believe the limiting factor in these products is the lack of structural information, particularly in the vertical dimension. The emphasis of this project is to improve upon satellite maps of boreal forest structure parameters (i.e. height and biomass) using temporal, multi-angle, and vertical profile information of GLAS data. The existing and near future lidar data is useful for demonstrating these techniques and pursuing current estimates. Future lidar missions may be several years in the future, so we will work other new data sets that may aide in biomass estimates such as ALOS PALSAR We will continue this work to produce an accurate map of current above ground forest phytomass/carbon storage possible for the study area. We plan to develop, test, and integrate remote sensing methods for extracting forest canopy structure measures. We are compiling our field measurements and will compare them with the remote sensing methods where possible. We also be able to produce a realistic error bound on the remotely sensed carbon estimates.

Ranson, K. Jon↗
NASA NTRS2010

Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

Smith, James A.↗