Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “error analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying preferential flow from soil moisture time series: Review of methodologies

Abstract Identifying and quantifying preferential flow (PF) through soil—the rapid movement of water through spatially distinct pathways in the subsurface—is vital to understanding how the hydrologic cycle responds to climate, land cover, and anthropogenic changes. In recent decades, methods have been developed that use measured soil moisture time series to identify PF. Because they allow for continuous monitoring and are relatively easy to implement, these methods have become an important tool for recognizing when, where, and under what conditions PF occurs. The methods seek to identify a pattern or quantification that indicates the occurrence of PF. Most commonly, the chosen signature is either (1) a nonsequential response to infiltrated water, in which soil moisture responses do not occur in order of shallowest to deepest, or (2) a velocity criterion, in which newly infiltrated water is detected at depth earlier than is possible by nonpreferential flow processes. Alternative signatures have also been developed that have certain advantages but are less commonly utilized. Choosing among these possible signatures requires attention to their pertinent characteristics, including susceptibility to errors, possible bias toward false negatives or false positives, reliance on subjective judgments, and possible requirements for additional types of data. We review 77 studies that have applied such methods to highlight important information for readers who want to identify PF from soil moisture data and to inform those who aim to develop new methods or improve existing ones. Core Ideas Soil moisture data can be used to identify the occurrence of preferential flow (PF) and its initiating conditions. Various data‐analysis methods to identify PF differ in susceptibility to error, bias, and subjectivity. These methods can utilize vast amounts of data from soil moisture monitoring networks to develop understanding of when, where, and under what conditions PF occurs. Newly developed methods may lead to better accuracy and reliability, and reduce the need for subjective judgments. Plain Language Summary Preferential flow through soil occurs when a large amount of water is suddenly available, as during an intense storm. This type of flow moves rapidly through the soil in distinct narrow pathways rather than moving evenly throughout the body of soil, with major consequences for groundwater resources, ecosystems, spreading of contaminants, and other vital concerns. Methods of detecting preferential flow have been developed that utilize measurements of soil water content made by sensors installed at various depths. This measurement technology has been widely implemented, many locations now having datasets years in length, and various methods have been developed for using these to identify preferential flow. The various methods are based on different features in the soil moisture records and vary in their advantages and shortcomings. In this review, we explain and evaluate these methods, highlighting important information for their implementation to identify preferential flow from soil moisture data and for efforts to develop new methods or improve existing ones.

Nimmo, John R↗
DOE OSTI2026

Soil carbon stocks from soil organic carbon at the Teller 47, Teller 27, and Kougarok 86 field sites, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021 – 2023

Carbon stored in permafrost soils represents the largest terrestrial storage and hence has key significance for the global carbon cycle, yet the site-specific estimates of permafrost soil carbon are limited. To better understand permafrost carbon storage, soil organic content (SOC) was measured from soils collected at the Teller 27, Teller 47, and Kougarok 86 field sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in the summers of 2019 and 2021-2023. Soil samples were collected from locations with and without near-surface permafrost to varied depths within the permafrost, where present. In addition to sample collection for soil organic carbon analysis, bulk density samples were also collected within each soil profile to allow for calculation of carbon stocks. Carbon to nitrogen ratios are also reported. Location data were collected at each observation point using a handheld GPS unit with waypoint averaging to reduce location measurement error to within 3 m. SOC was measured using elemental analysis in the laboratory. This dataset contains a *.csv file of soil carbon stocks, a *.kml file of measurement locations, a *.pdf user guide, a *.csv data dictionary, and a *.csv file level metadata.

EARTH SCIENCE > CRYOSPHERE > FROZEN GROUND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wide‐Field Bond Quality Evaluation Using Frequency Domain Thermoreflectance with Deep Neural Network Feature Reconstruction

Heterogeneous integration of microelectronic components provides a pathway to improve circuit/component performance; however, this comes with assembly challenges, in particular due to complex interfaces via subsurface bump bonds. The ability of these bonds to transmit electrical signals and conduct heat to the carrier substrate limits component performance. In this work, hyperspectral frequency‐domain thermoreflectance (FDTR) imaging is demonstrated as a robust technique for evaluating the quality of subsurface indium bump bonds in a surrogate microelectronic sample. By performing microscale FDTR imaging with coarse motion image stitching, thermal phase maps that cover a 4 mm by 4 mm field‐of‐view with subsurface feature sensitivity at depths greater than 50 µm are obtained. The resulting FDTR hyperspectral data contains more than three million pixels and reveal the quality of subsurface microbump arrays. Wide‐field analysis of bonded versus gap regions is enabled by deep neural network feature reconstruction, that after training, rapidly provides an interpretable representation of bond quality. Utility of noisy higher frequency FDTR phase maps, i.e., near the computationally predicted sensing depth limit, results in an average prediction error of 11%. Taken together, FDTR with neural network‐based analysis demonstrates subsurface bond monitoring at length scales relevant for heterogeneously integrated microelectronics.

FDTR↗
DOE OSTI2026

Novel application of the modal strain energy technique for state-of-the-art damping predictions

Structural damping, which measures the energy dissipation of a vibrating structure, is a key modeling input for lightweight structures but is notoriously hard to predict. This work utilizes vibration-based measurements of centimeter-scale coupons and the modal strain energy approach to predict structural damping of a lightly damped structure. The approach was originally validated with panels shorter than a meter in length. This work extends the validation to a 2.75 m beam made of unidirectional and biaxial glass fiber laminates bonded by adhesive. The comparison between three-dimensional finite element model predictions and full-scale experimental measurements of damping show an average error of 5.2% for the first five modes. Additionally, the modal strain energy approach is newly applied with a one-dimensional geometrically exact beam theory model and a two-dimensional sectional analysis solver. This beam approach accurately predicts the damping behavior of the first bending modes but loses accuracy for higher order modes that are dominated by three-dimensional effects. This novel approach provides faster simulations while allowing arbitrary beam cross sections. The paper also investigates traditional and high-force dynamic mechanical analysis to measure structural damping of coupons. Both alternatives show significant errors in attempted validation against the theoretical thermoelastic damping of aluminum coupons.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

RhizoNet segments plant roots to assess biomass and growth for enabling self-driving labs

Abstract Flatbed scanners are commonly used for root analysis, but typical manual segmentation methods are time-consuming and prone to errors, especially in large-scale, multi-plant studies. Furthermore, the complex nature of root structures combined with noisy backgrounds in images complicates automated analysis. Addressing these challenges, this article introduces RhizoNet, a deep learning-based workflow to semantically segment plant root scans. Utilizing a sophisticated Residual U-Net architecture, RhizoNet enhances prediction accuracy and employs a convex hull operation for delineation of the primary root component. Its main objective is to accurately segment root biomass and monitor its growth over time. RhizoNet processes color scans of plants grown in a hydroponic system known as EcoFAB, subjected to specific nutritional treatments. The root detection model using RhizoNet demonstrates strong generalization in the validation tests of all experiments despite variable treatments. The main contributions are the standardization of root segmentation and phenotyping, systematic and accelerated analysis of thousands of images, significantly aiding in the precise assessment of root growth dynamics under varying plant conditions, and offering a path toward self-driving labs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic Tomography of the Atmosphere: A Large-Eddy Simulation Sensitivity Study

Accurate measurement of atmospheric turbulent fluctuations is critical for understanding environmental dynamics and improving models in applications such as wind energy. Advanced remote sensing technologies are essential for capturing instantaneous velocity and temperature fluctuations. Acoustic tomography (AT) offers a promising approach that utilizes sound travel times between an array of transducers to reconstruct turbulence fields. This study presents a systematic evaluation of the time-dependent stochastic inversion (TDSI) algorithm for AT using synthetic travel-time measurements derived from large-eddy simulation (LES) fields under both neutral and convective atmospheric boundary-layer conditions. Unlike prior work that relied on field observations or idealized fields, the LES framework provides a ground-truth atmospheric state, enabling quantitative assessment of TDSI retrieval reliability, sensitivity to travel-time measurement noise, and dependence on covariance model parameters and temporal data integration. A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the best-fit model parameters, identify the tolerance thresholds for parameter mismatch, and establish a maximum spatial resolution. The TDSI algorithm successfully reconstructed large-scale velocity and temperature fluctuations with root mean square errors ( RMSE s) below 0.35 m/s and 0.12 K, respectively. Spectral analysis established a maximum spatial resolution of approximately 1.4 m, and reconstructions remained robust for travel-time measurement uncertainties up to 0.002 s. These findings provide critical insights into the operational limits of TDSI and inform future applications of AT for atmospheric turbulence characterization and system design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Speed-up of Wave-like Dark Matter Searches with Entangled Qubits

Qubit-based sensing platforms offer promising new directions for wave-like dark matter searches. Recent proposals demonstrate that entangled qubits can achieve quadratic scaling of the signal in the number of qubits. In this work we expand on these proposals to analyze the bandwidth and scan rate performance of entangled qubit protocols across different error regimes. We find that the phase-based readout of entangled protocols preserves the search bandwidth independent of qubit number, in contrast to power-based detection schemes, thereby achieving a genuine scan-rate advantage. We derive coherence time and error rate requirements for qubit systems to realize this advantage. Applying our analysis to dark photon searches, we find that entangled states of approximately 100 qubits can become competitive with benchmark photon-counting cavity experiments for masses $\gtrsim 30{-}40~μ{\rm eV}$, provided sufficiently low error rates are achieved. The advantage increases at higher masses where cavity volume scaling becomes less favorable.

Bodas, Arushi [Fermilab; Chicago U.] (ORCID:000000↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dedicated beam position monitor pair for model-independent lattice characterization at NSLS-II

This paper reports recent lattice characterization results obtained at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) storage ring, conducted without reliance on a lattice model. A pair of beam position monitors (BPMs) with bunch-by-bunch (B$\times$B) resolution, were recently installed in a section of the storage ring free of magnetic fields. The new BPM pair measured the beam, or bunch’s transverse Poincaré map precisely after the beam was excited. Linear one-turn-matrices (OTM) were then derived, and from these, the 4-dimensional coupled Twiss parameters were extracted at the locations of the BPM pair. By normalizing beam oscillation amplitudes with the Twiss parameters, the global action-variables were obtained. Additionally, these action-variables facilitated the measurement of the local Twiss parameters observed by other BPMs independent on lattice model. This method is general, and particularly useful in certain scenarios such as a round beam mode in a diffraction-limited light source ring. We applied it to assess both weakly and strongly coupled lattices at the NSLS-II ring. Through analysis of the strongly coupled lattice, the quadrupole tilt errors were estimated to be less than 400 μrad. Utilizing the BPMs’ B$\times$B resolution, for the first time we observed the variations of the linear lattice along a long bunch-train.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coil optimization for quasi-helically symmetric stellarator configurations

Filament-based coil optimizations are performed for several quasi-helical stellarator configurations, beginning with the one from Landreman & Paul ( Phys. Rev. Lett. , vol. 128, 2022, 035001), demonstrating that precise quasi-helical symmetry can be achieved with realistic coils. Several constraints are placed on the shape and spacing of the coils, such as low curvature and sufficient plasma–coil distance for neutron shielding. The coils resulting from this optimization have a maximum curvature 0.8 times that of the coils of the Helically Symmetric eXperiment (HSX) and a mean squared curvature 0.4 times that of the HSX coils when scaled to the same plasma minor radius. When scaled up to reactor size and magnetic field strength, no fast particle losses were found in the free-boundary configuration when simulating 5000 alpha particles launched at $3.5\,\mathrm {MeV}$ on the flux surface with a normalized toroidal flux of $s=0.5$ . An analysis of the tolerance of the coils to manufacturing errors is performed using a Gaussian process model, and the coils are found to maintain low particle losses for smooth, large-scale errors up to amplitudes of approximately $0.15\,\mathrm {m}$ . Another coil optimization is performed for the Landreman–Paul configuration with the additional constraint that the coils are purely planar. Visual inspection of the Poincaré plot of the resulting magnetic field-lines reveal that the planar modular coils alone do a poor job of reproducing the target equilibrium. Additional non-planar coil optimizations are performed for the quasi-helical configuration with $5\,\%$ volume-averaged plasma beta from Landreman et al. ( Phys. Plasma , vol. 29, issue 8, 2022, 082501), and a similar configuration also optimized to satisfy the Mercier criterion. The finite beta configurations had larger fast-particle losses, with the free-boundary Mercier-optimized configuration performing the worst, losing approximately $5.5\,\%$ of alpha particles launched at $s=0.5$ .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum error mitigation for Fourier moment computation

Hamiltonian moments in Fourier space—expectation values of the unitary evolution operator under a Hamiltonian at different times—provide a convenient framework to understand quantum systems. They offer insights into the energy distribution, higher-order dynamics, response functions, correlation information, and physical properties. This paper focuses on the computation of Fourier moments within the context of a nuclear effective field theory on superconducting quantum hardware. The study integrates echo verification and noise renormalization into Hadamard tests using control reversal gates. These techniques, combined with purification and error suppression methods, effectively address quantum hardware decoherence. The analysis, conducted using noise models, reveals a significant reduction in noise strength by two orders of magnitude. Moreover, quantum circuits involving up to 266 gates over five qubits demonstrate high accuracy under these methodologies when run on IBM superconducting quantum devices. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Kiss, Oriel (ORCID:0000000174613342)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dedicated beam position monitor pair for model-independent lattice characterization at NSLS-II

This paper reports recent lattice characterization results obtained at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) storage ring, conducted without reliance on a lattice model. A pair of beam position monitors (BPMs) with bunch-by-bunch (B×B) resolution, were recently installed in a section of the storage ring free of magnetic fields. The new BPM pair measured the beam, or bunch’s transverse Poincar´e map precisely after the beam was excited. Linear one-turn-matrices (OTM) were then derived, and from these, the 4-dimensional coupled Twiss parameters were extracted at the locations of the BPM pair. By normalizing beam oscillation amplitudes with the Twiss parameters, the global action-variables were obtained. These action-variables facilitated the measurement of the local Twiss parameters observed by other BPMs independent on lattice model. This method is general, and particularly useful in certain scenarios such as a round beam mode in a diffraction-limited light source ring. We applied it to assess both weakly and strongly coupled lattices at the NSLS-II ring. Through analysis of the strongly coupled lattice, the quadrupole tilt errors were estimated to be less than 400 µrad. Utilizing the BPMs’ B×B resolution, for the first time we observed the variations of the linear lattice along a long bunch-train.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Airport Delay Prediction with Temporal Fusion Transformers

Since flight delay hurts passengers, airlines, and airports, its prediction becomes crucial for the decision-making of all stakeholders in the aviation industry and thus has been attempted by various previous research. However, previous delay predictions are often categorical and at a highly aggregated level. To improve that, this study proposes to apply the novel Temporal Fusion Transformer model and predict numerical airport arrival delays at quarter hour level for U.S. top 30 airports. Inputs to our model include airport demand and capacity forecasts, historic airport operation efficiency information, airport wind and visibility conditions, as well as en-route weather and traffic conditions. The results show that our model achieves satisfactory performance measured by small prediction errors on the test set. In addition, the interpretability analysis of the model outputs identifies the important input factors for delay prediction.

Liu, Ke [University of California Berkeley]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Use of Time Distributions to Predict Operator Procedure Performance in Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework affords software capable of conducting human reliability analysis (HRA) using a dynamic approach built around operating procedures (OPs) from nuclear power plants (NPPs). Previous HUNTER reports document the development of this software tool, the coupling of HUNTER to the simulator code, the collection of operator performance data by using simulators to calibrate HUNTER models, and linking HUNTER to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) software. The present report largely addresses two topics. The first is a new function in HUNTER called the HUNTER Procedure Performance Predictor (P3). HUNTER P3 uses HUNTER’s built in Monte Carlo tools featuring human performance variability to identify potential error traps in procedures. The second topic is time distribution analysis to generate time inputs for dynamic HRA. The current analysis was performed to investigate time distributions for task primitives, which are the minimum task unit of analysis used in dynamic HRA modeling. Using the time distribution data, the elapsed time for human actions in an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario is then investigated. Time data and prediction are essential for modeling procedure performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Framework for a Digital Documented Safety Analysis

This framework is developed to progress the digital implementation of digital tools applied to the DOE authorization process, with future applications to NRC SAR development/review, to accelerate the design and review processes of advanced nuclear reactors. The engineering design and licensing process for nuclear reactors is currently burdened by a document-based approach that leads to duplications and errors due to a lack of traceability among numerous static documents. Changes to design information require labor-intensive manual tracing through these documents, creating a high potential for human error. The adoption of a digital ecosystem, utilizing a digital thread to link various aspects of project design and analysis, promises dynamic documentation generation, automatic updates, and error reduction. Model Based Definition (MBD) and Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) tools are central to this digital transformation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Should We Conserve Entropy or Energy when Computing CAPE with Mixed-Phase Precipitation Physics?

Abstract The rapidly increasing resolution of global atmospheric reanalysis and climate model datasets necessitates finding methods for computing convective available potential energy (CAPE) both efficiently and accurately. To this end, this article compares two common methods for computing CAPE which conserve either energy or entropy. Inaccuracies in these computations arise from both physical and numerical errors. For instance, computing CAPE with entropy conserved results in physical errors from nonequilibrium phase transitions but minimizes numerical errors because solutions are analytic at each height. In contrast, computing CAPE with energy conserved avoids these physical errors, but accumulates numerical errors that are grid-resolution-dependent because the numerical integration of a differential equation is required. Analysis of CAPE computed with large databases of soundings from the tropical Amazon and midlatitude storm environments shows that physical errors from the entropy method are typically 1%–3% as large as CAPE, which is comparable to the numerical errors from conserving energy with grid spacing of 25 and 250 m using explicit first-order and second-order integration schemes, respectively. Errors in entropy-based CAPE calculations are also insensitive to vertical grid spacing, in contrast to energy-based calculations whose error strongly scales with the grid spacing. It is shown that entropy-based methods are advantageous when intercomparing datasets with differing vertical resolution because they produce accurate and reasonably fast results that are insensitive to grid resolution, whereas a second-order energy-based method is advantageous when analyzing data with a consistent vertical resolution because of its superior computational efficiency. Significance Statement Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is a measure of instability in the atmosphere that helps forecasters and researchers understand when and where thunderstorms will form. The purpose of this article is to identify the most efficient and accurate methods for computing CAPE. Two methods are considered here, one that relates to the entropy (a measure of thermodynamic disorder) of an air parcel and one that relates to the energy of an air parcel. Results indicate that the entropy method is most accurate and insensitive to the resolution of the data used for the calculation (which can vary considerably), whereas the energy method uses the least computation time.

Peters, John M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examining the Impact of Local Constraint Violations on Energy Computations in DFT

ABSTRACT This work examines the impact of locally imposed constraints in Density Functional Theory (DFT). Using a metric referred to as the extent of violation index (EVI), we quantify how well exchange‐correlation functionals adhere to local constraints. Applying EVIs to a diverse set of molecules for GGA functionals reveals constraint violations, particularly for semi‐empirical functionals. We leverage EVIs to explore potential connections between these violations and errors in chemical properties. While no correlation is observed for atomization energies, a significant statistical correlation emerges between EVIs and total energies. Similarly, the analysis of reaction energies suggests weak positive correlations for specific constraints. However, definitive conclusions about error cancellation mechanisms cannot be made at this time. These observations revealed by EVIs may be useful for consideration when designing future generations of semilocal functionals.

Khanna, Vaibhav [Department of Chemistry Universit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying Nuclear Data Correlated Through Predicting Bias in Integral Experiments via Applying Principal Component Analysis to Random Forest

ABSTRACT Nuclear data (ND) are the input data for neutron‐transport simulations to answer questions related to nuclear technologies. Subsets of ND, here > 20,000 data points, are validated with respect to thousands of criticality experiments that represent various applications on a small scale. The aim of validation with these experiments is to find errors in ND or methods. The key challenge here is that several hundreds of ND are used to simulate one integral value. Hence, one cannot clearly identify what ND are leading to bias in criticality measurements. In fact, a mistake in one nuclear‐data observable can be compensated with an error in another, and the predicted criticality value would still be predicted in agreement with experimental data. Random forest (RF) was previously employed to predict bias in criticality measurements using sensitivities of simulated criticality experiments to ND. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) metric was then applied to attribute the importance of each ND experiment and observable to bias prediction. This, however, did not highlight what ND were jointly related to predicting bias. This is important as it could inform us about where compensating errors in ND could hide. We tackle this shortcoming here by first decomposing the ND sensitivities to integral‐experiment simulations into principal components. Then we use principal component projections to predict bias via the RF and SHAP. The SHAP values and principal components are employed to reconstruct detailed SHAP values for each ND observable. We demonstrate that these extended SHAP bias predictions are more robust, less noisy, and more efficient. In addition, we show that this approach accounts for covariance in ND sensitivities and automates the identification of where compensating errors could hide in ND.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗