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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Human Health Risk Assessment for Improper Landfill Disposal of End-of-Life CdTe Modules

The present work is a continuation of the 2020 IEA PVPS Task 12 Human Health Risk Assessment Methods for PV Part 3: Module Disposal Risks. The 2020 report performed a human health risk assessment (HHRA) for disposal of a cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV module in an unlined landfill, focusing solely on risks from cadmium. This study extends the 2020 HHRA on CdTe PV, analyzing eleven constituent elements: Cd, Se, Te, Cu, Si, Cr(III), Mo, Sn, Zn, Ni, and Al. The present HHRA was performed through two methods: utilization of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Delisting Risk Assessment Software (DRAS V.4.0) on eight exposure pathways for cancer risk and non-cancer hazards; and comparison of exposure point concentrations to federal standards for groundwater, surface water, air, and soil exposure pathways. Cancer risks and non-cancer hazards posed by elemental leaching through all evaluated exposure pathways, using both methods, were found to be several orders of magnitude below USEPA health-protective thresholds. Cadmium exhibited both the highest risks and lowest uncertainty considering data availability on chemical content, leachate, and federal screening levels.

CdTe↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark Photon Search at the Short-Baseline Near Detector

Neutrino physics has long been a key field in elementary particle physics, both enhancing our understanding of the Standard Model (SM) and raising new questions. Among these are the so-called "Short-Baseline Anomalies" observed by neutrino experiments, particularly the MiniBooNE experiment at Fermilab, which detected an excess of low-energy electron-like events. In recent years, beyond Standard Model (BSM) explanations have been proposed to address this anomaly, with a focus on neutrino beam-related processes. A novel interpretation involving a dark-sector explanation was recently suggested, introducing a vector portal that connects the SM and dark sectors through a new interaction mediated by a bosonic particle, the Dark Photon. This work investigates the production of dark-sector particles, specifically Dark Photons, in the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab and their potential detection at the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND). The BNB produces mesons which decay into Dark Photons, detectable via their decay into electron-positron pairs at SBND. By exploiting the temporal structure of the neutrino beam, we propose a method to isolate Dark Photon signals from neutrino backgrounds using time-delayed event detection. In this thesis, the sensitivity of SBND to Dark Photons is assessed using a three-year exposure, demonstrating that SBND has the potential to significantly improve current experimental constraints on Dark Photons. This analysis provides a promising avenue for future dark sector searches in neutrino experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metallothionein expression in Eastern mosquitofish ( Gambusia holbrooki ) exposed to 137 Cs and lead: implications for using metallothionein as a metal exposure biomarker

Given the range of threats facing aquatic ecosystems, it is critical we have monitoring tools to quickly and efficiently identify stressors within ecosystems. Metallothionein’s (MTs) are a group of proteins widely used as biomarkers of metal exposure; however, their suitability has been questioned due to their influenceable nature and ability to be induced by various stressors. Through our study, we sought to (1) evaluate induction of MT in eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) exposed to a radionuclide ( 137 Cs) and metal (Pb), (2) assess the influence of in situ 137 Cs pre-exposure on Pb-induced MT expression, and (3) quantify changes in MT concentrations during Pb depuration. We conducted our experiment in three phases using mosquitofish as a model species: Phase I—pre-exposure to 137 Cs in the field, Phase II—exposure to Pb in the lab immediately following 137 Cs exposure, and Phase III—depuration in the laboratory. We quantified MT concentrations over time and assessed differences among treatments. We did not find in situ exposure of mosquitofish to 137 Cs to induce MT, nor did pre-exposure to 137 Cs appear to influence induction of MT following Pb exposure. Metallothionein was rapidly induced in mosquitofish following Pb exposure; however, MT induction was also observed in control fish. Additionally, there was no apparent relationship between MT and Pb body burdens. During depuration, we found MT concentrations to be highly variable among fish demonstrating no clear response. Furthermore, our study demonstrates the high variability exhibited by MT, the need for further validation of MT as a metal exposure biomarker, and the value in additional research on these proteins under varying exposure scenarios, particularly environmentally realistic concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thirdhand tobacco smoke exposure increases the genetic background-dependent risk of pan-tumor development in Collaborative Cross mice

Increasing evidence has shown that thirdhand smoke (THS) exposure is likely to induce adverse health effects. An important knowledge gap remains in our understanding of THS exposure related to cancer risk in the human population. Population-based animal models are useful and powerful in investigating the interplay between host genetics and THS exposure on cancer risk. Here, we used the Collaborative Cross (CC) mouse population-based model system, which recapitulates the genetic and phenotypic diversity observed in the human population, to assess cancer risk after a short period of exposure, between 4 and 9 weeks of age. Eight CC strains (CC001, CC019, CC026, CC036, CC037, CC041, CC042 and CC051) were included in our study. We quantified pan-tumor incidence, tumor burden per mouse, organ tumor spectrum and tumor-free survival until 18 months of age. At the population level, we observed a significantly increased pan-tumor incidence and tumor burden per mouse in THS-treated mice as compared to the control (p = 3.04E-06). Lung and liver tissues exhibited the largest risk of undergoing tumorigenesis after THS exposure. Tumor-free survival was significantly reduced in THS-treated mice compared to control (p = 0.044). At the individual strain level, we observed a large variation in tumor incidence across the 8 CC strains. CC036 and CC041 exhibited a significant increase in pan-tumor incidence (p = 0.0084 and p = 0.000066, respectively) after THS exposure compared to control. We conclude that early-life THS exposure increases tumor development in CC mice and that host genetic background plays an important role in individual susceptibility to THS-induced tumorigenesis. Genetic background is an important factor that should be taken into account when determining human cancer risk of THS exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The ICRP, MELODI, and ALLIANCE workshop on effects of ionizing radiation exposure in offspring and next generations: a summary of discussions

Task Group 121 – Effects of ionizing radiation exposure in offspring and next generations – is a task group under the Committee 1 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), approved by the Main Commission on 18th November 2021. The main goals of Task Group 121 are to (1) review and update the scientific literature of relevance to radiation-related effects in the offspring of parent(s) exposed to ionizing radiation in both human and non-human biota; (2) to assess preconceptional and intrauterine effects of radiation exposure and related morbidity and mortality; and, (3) to provide advice about the level of evidence and how to consider these preconceptional and postconceptional effects in the system of radiological protection for humans and non-human biota. The Task Group is reviewing relevant literature since Publication 90 ‘Biological effects after prenatal irradiation (embryo and fetus)’ (2003) and will include radiation-related effects on future generations in humans, animals, and plants. This review will be conducted to account for the health effects on offspring and subsequent generations in the current system of radiological protection. Radiation detriment calculation will also be reviewed. Finally, preliminary recommendations will be made to update the integration of health effects in offspring and next generations in the system of radiological protection. A Workshop, jointly organized by ICRP Task Group 121 and European Radiation Protection Research Platforms MELODI and ALLIANCE was held in Budapest, Hungary, from 31st May to 2nd June 2022. Participants discussed four important topics: (1) hereditary and epigenetic effects due to exposure of the germ cell line (preconceptional exposure), (2) effects arising from exposure of the embryo and fetus (intrauterine exposure), (3) transgenerational effects on biota, and (4) its potential impact on the system of radiological protection. Based on the discussions and presentations during the breakout sessions, newer publications, and gaps on the current scientific literature were identified. For instance, there are some ongoing systematic reviews and radiation epidemiology reviews of intrauterine effects. There are newer methods of Monte Carlo simulation for fetal dosimetry, and advances in radiation genetics, epigenetics, and radiobiology studies. While the current impact of hereditary effects on the global detriment was reported as small, the questions surrounding the effects of radiation exposure on offspring and the next generation are crucial, recurring, and with a major focus on exposed populations. Here, this article summarizes the workshop discussions, presentations, and conclusions of each topic and introduces the special issue of the International Journal of Radiation Biology resulting from the discussions of the meeting.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Offshore Wind Farm Turbine and Energy Storage Optimization

Abstract This paper evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of repurposing decommissioned offshore oil and gas platforms as electrical substations for offshore wind projects in the U.S. Gulf of America, a region characterized by relatively low and highly variable wind speeds, extensive legacy offshore infrastructure, and exposure to merchant electricity markets. A unified techno-economic framework is developed using the Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Continued Energy (ROICE) Economic Model (REM) to integrate Gulfspecific wind resource assessment, commercial wind turbine performance, offshore infrastructure cost modeling, and wholesale electricity market exposure. Gulf wind speed data are vertically extrapolated to turbine hub height and combined with manufacturer power curves to compute annual energy production and capacity factors across a broad portfolio of commercial turbines, enabling identification of turbine designs best suited for low-wind offshore environments. Hourly electricity price data from the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) day-ahead market are incorporated to characterize revenue potential, price volatility, and the temporal alignment between wind generation and market conditions. In addition, a conceptual framework for offshore battery energy storage system (BESS) integration is developed to support future investigation of market-responsive energy shifting at repurposed platforms. Results from the turbine evaluation demonstrate that machines with lower cut-in wind speeds and earlier ‘rated-power’ characteristics significantly outperform larger, industry-standard offshore turbines for the same net power under Gulf wind conditions, underscoring the need for region-specific technology selection. Market analysis further reveals substantial price variability and limited intrinsic alignment between wind production and high-price periods, motivating consideration of operational flexibility mechanisms. While storage optimization is not implemented in this study, the REM framework establishes a transparent and replicable foundation for co-evaluating turbine selection, infrastructure constraints, and market exposure, providing a practical pathway for assessing the potential role of repurposed offshore platforms in enabling economically viable offshore wind development in the Gulf of America.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pregnancy outcome after first trimester exposure to domperidone—An observational cohort study

Abstract Aim To assess the teratogenic risk of domperidone by comparing the incidence of major malformation with domperidone to a control. Methods Pregnancy outcome data were obtained for women at two Japanese facilities that provide counseling on drug use during pregnancy between April 1988 and December 2017. The incidence of major malformation was calculated among infants born to women taking domperidone ( n = 519), nonteratogenic drugs (control, n = 1673), or metoclopramide (reference, n = 241) during the first trimester of pregnancy. Using the control group as reference, the crude odds ratio (OR) of the incidence of major malformation in the domperidone and metoclopramide groups was calculated using univariable logistic regression analysis. Adjusted OR was also calculated using multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusted for various other factors. Results The incidence of major malformation was 2.9% (14/485, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6–4.8) in the domperidone group, 1.7% (27/1554, 95%CI: 1.1–2.5) in the control group, and 3.6% (8/224, 95%CI: 1.6–6.9) in the metoclopramide group. The adjusted multivariable logistic regression analysis showed no significant difference in incidence between the control and domperidone groups (adjusted OR: 1.86 [95%CI: 0.73–4.70], p = 0.191) or between the control and metoclopramide groups (adjusted OR: 2.20 [95%CI: 0.69–6.98], p = 0.183). Conclusions This observational cohort study showed that domperidone exposure during the first trimester was not associated with increased risk of major malformation in infants. These results may help alleviate the anxiety of patients who took domperidone during pregnancy.

Hishinuma, Kayoko↗
DOE OSTI2022

Urban working groups in the IAEA’s model testing programmes: overview from the MODARIA I and MODARIA II programmes

The IAEA’s model testing programmes have included a series of Working Groups concerned with modelling radioactive contamination in urban environments. These have included the Urban Working Group of Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (1988–1994), the Urban Remediation Working Group of Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety (EMRAS) (2003–2007), the Urban Areas Working Group of EMRAS II (2009–2011), the Urban Environments Working Group of (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments) MODARIA I (2013–2015), and most recently, the Urban Exposures Working Group of MODARIA II (2016–2019). The overarching objective of these Working Groups has been to test and improve the capabilities of computer models used to assess radioactive contamination in urban environments, including dispersion and deposition processes, short-term and long-term redistribution of contaminants following deposition events, and the effectiveness of various countermeasures and other protective actions, including remedial actions, in reducing contamination levels, human exposures, and doses to humans. This paper describes the exercises conducted during the MODARIA I and MODARIA II programmes. These exercises have included short-range and mid-range atmospheric dispersion exercises based on data from field tests or tracer studies, hypothetical urban dispersion exercises, and an exercise based on data collected after the Fukushima Daiichi accident. We report improvement of model capabilities will lead to improvements in assessing various contamination scenarios (real or hypothetical), and in turn, to improved decision-making and communication with the public following a nuclear or radiological emergency.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Total Blood Mercury Predicts Methylmercury Exposure in Fish and Shellfish Consumers

Abstract Many studies evaluating methylmercury (MeHg) toxicity rely on whole blood total mercury (THg) measurements to estimate MeHg exposure. However, whole blood THg includes other forms of mercury (Hg), such as inorganic Hg, which have different exposure sources and toxicological effects than MeHg. Therefore, estimating the whole blood MeHg/THg ratio is critical to predicting MeHg exposure and, subsequently, efforts to establish an exposure–response relationship for use in risk assessment. A large, representative dataset (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011–2016) was used to determine the whole blood MeHg/THg ratio among (a) self-reported fish and shellfish consumers, ≥ 15 years of age (the “full adult” population ( N = 5268 training dataset; N = 2336 test dataset)) and (b) female fish and shellfish consumers, 15–44 years of age (the “women of reproductive age” population ( N = 1285 training dataset; N = 560 test dataset)). Unadjusted and adjusted linear and spline models with direct measurements for both THg and MeHg were evaluated. The mean whole blood MeHg/THg ratio was 0.75 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 0.75). This ratio was significantly higher among those with higher THg concentrations. All models exhibited excellent fit (adjusted R 2 from 0.957 to 0.982). Performance was slightly improved in spline versus linear models. For the full adult population and women of reproductive age, the unadjusted spline model predicted whole blood MeHg concentrations of 5.65 µg/L and 5.55 µg/L, respectively, when the THg concentration was 5.80 µg/L. These results suggest that whole blood THg is a good predictor of whole blood MeHg among fish and shellfish consumers.

Wells, Ellen M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A multistep enrichment process with custom growth medium improves resuscitation of chlorine-stressed coliforms from secondary sewage effluents

Resuscitation and detection of stressed coliforms in treated water samples is needed to assess and prevent health effects from adverse exposure. Herein, we developed a custom growth media that improved total coliform resuscitation from chlorine-stressed samples from secondary effluent to see if detection time could be reduced from 18 to 8 hours.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Kinetics of the Coherent Stage of Hydroxide Corrosion on Li 2 O-Covered LiH

The capability to model LiOH growth on vacuum-baked LiH is a necessary precursor to making kinetic predictions of undesirable hydrogen outgassing from corroded LiH materials when placed in sealed-system applications. Here, in this work, LiH samples with initial LiOH surface corrosion layers less than 1.1 μm were outgassed by vacuum baking at high temperature to convert LiOH to Li 2 O. Diffuse-reflectance infrared Fourier transform (DRIFT) spectroscopy was used to measure the subsequent LiOH regrowth during exposure to 25–375 ppm of H 2 O vapor at room temperature. Logarithmic kinetics best model the growth of this coherent hydroxide corrosion layer (up to 1.5 μm) on previously vacuum-baked LiH samples. The logarithmic kinetics are attributed to the dissociation of H 2 O on the corrosion layer and the establishment of a H + /OH – electric field across the thickening LiOH corrosion layer. A time-dependent model of LiOH corrosion growth as a function of both initial LiOH thickness before vacuum baking and moisture partial pressures during re-exposure was developed to help researchers better assess the unwanted hydrogen outgassing potential from LiH/LiD materials.

Matt, Sarah M. [Lawrence Livermore National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cold acclimation threshold induction temperatures of switchgrass ecotypes grown under a long and short photoperiod

Abstract Plants can cold acclimate to enhance their freezing tolerance by sensing declining temperature and photoperiod cues. However, the factors influencing genotypic variation in the induction of cold acclimation are poorly understood among perennial grasses. We hypothesized that the more northern upland switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) ecotype develops a higher degree of freezing tolerance by initiating cold acclimation at higher temperatures as compared with the coastal and southern lowland ecotypes. First, we determined the optimal method for assessing freezing tolerance and the length of exposure to 8/4°C required to induce the maximum level of freezing tolerance in the most northern upland and most southern lowland genotypes. We characterized the maximum freezing tolerance of eight uplands, three coastal and five lowland genotypes grown for 21 days at 8/4°C and a 10 or 16 h photoperiod. Next, we identified the temperature required to induce cold acclimation by exposing the 16 genotypes for 7 days at 20–6°C constant temperatures under a 10 or 16 h photoperiod. Cold acclimation initiated at temperatures 5 and 7°C higher in upland than in coastal and lowland genotypes. Among upland genotypes the shorter photoperiod induced cold acclimation at a 1°C higher temperature. Genotypes originating from a more northern latitude initiate cold acclimation at higher temperatures and develop higher maximum freezing tolerances. An earlier response to declining temperatures may provide the upland ecotype with additional time to prepare for winter and provide an advantage when plants are subjected to the rapid changes in fall temperature associated with injurious frosts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Corrosivity Screening of Pyrolysis Bio-Oils by Short-Term Alloy Exposures. Laboratory Analytical Procedure (LAP), Issue Date: May 12, 2022

Bio-oils contain organic acids and oxygenated compounds that can lead to corrosion issues during bio-oil processing and storage. This Laboratory Analytical Procedure (LAP) allows for rapid screening of a bio-oil's corrosivity without the need for complex equipment and long-term exposures. A robust and repeatable method for assessing the corrosivity of bio-oils is necessary in order to remove materials degradation as an obstacle to research, upgrading, use and storage of bio-oils. This LAP involves the incubation of a representative alloy, 410 stainless steel (410 SS), specimen in bio-oil over a period of 48 hours at 50 degrees C in a sealed container. The corrosive species in the bio-oil react with and deplete alloy elements such as iron (Fe) and/or chromium (Cr) from the specimen into the bio-oil solution. The depletion of Fe and Cr from the specimen results in a significant mass loss that can be recorded. The mass loss is directly correlated to the corrosivity of a bio-oil. Examples of bio-oils in scope include the ones produced by fast pyrolysis and catalytic fast pyrolysis, as well as liquids produced from hydrothermal liquefaction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiation-Induced Defect Formation Kinetics in Inconel–Cu Multimetallic Layered Composites

This study investigates the stability of Inconel–Cu Multimetallic Layered Composites (MMLCs) in nuclear reactor applications using Molecular Dynamics simulations. The focus is on understanding the underlying mechanisms governing the properties of MMLCs for advanced nuclear reactors, specifically, the mechanochemistry of the interface between Inconel and copper alloys. The selection of Inconel–Cu MMLCs is primarily due to copper’s superior thermal conductivity, enhancing heat management within reactors by preventing hotspots and ensuring uniform temperature distribution. This research examines Incoloy 800H and two Inconel variants (718 and 625), assessing their stability at 1000 K after exposure to 10 keV collision cascades up to 0.12 dpa. Notable findings include defect clustering on the {1 2 0} family of planes of Inconel and Cu, with Stacking Faults and Lomer–Cottrell locks on the Inconel side.

Ramesh, Rajesh↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gene Expression Thresholds Derived From Short-term Exposures Identify Rat Liver Tumorigens

Abstract Traditional methods for cancer risk assessment are resource-intensive, retrospective, and not feasible for the vast majority of environmental chemicals. In this study, we investigated whether quantitative genomic data from short-term studies may be used to set protective thresholds for potential tumorigenic effects. We hypothesized that gene expression biomarkers measuring activation of the key early events in established pathways for rodent liver cancer exhibit cross-chemical thresholds for tumorigenesis predictive for liver cancer risk. We defined biomarker thresholds for 6 major liver cancer pathways using training sets of chemicals with short-term genomic data (3–29 days of exposure) from the TG-GATES (n = 77 chemicals) and DrugMatrix (n = 86 chemicals) databases and then tested these thresholds within and between datasets. The 6 pathway biomarkers represented genotoxicity, cytotoxicity, and activation of xenobiotic, steroid, and lipid receptors (aryl hydrocarbon receptor, constitutive activated receptor, estrogen receptor, and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α). Thresholds were calculated as the maximum values derived from exposures without detectable liver tumor outcomes. We identified clear response values that were consistent across training and test sets. Thresholds derived from the TG-GATES training set were highly predictive (97%) in a test set of independent chemicals, whereas thresholds derived from the DrugMatrix study were 96%–97% predictive for the TG-GATES study. Threshold values derived from an abridged gene list (2/biomarker) also exhibited high predictive accuracy (91%–94%). These findings support the idea that early genomic changes can be used to establish threshold estimates or “molecular tipping points” that are predictive of later-life health outcomes.

Hill, III,, Thomas↗