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At least 145 records · Page 8

Reliability of CCGA 1152 and CCGA 1272 Interconnect Packages for Extreme Thermal Environments

Ceramic column grid array (CCGA) packages have been increasing in use based on their advantages of high interconnect density, very good thermal and electrical performance, and compatibility with standard surface-mount packaging assembly processes. CCGA packages are used in space applications such as in logics and microprocessor functions, telecommunications, flight avionics, and payload electronics. As these packages tend to have less solder joint strain relief than leaded packages, the reliability of CCGA packages is very important for short- and long-term space missions. Certain planetary satellites require operations of thermally uncontrolled hardware under extremely cold and hot temperatures with large diurnal temperature change from day to night. The planetary protection requires the hardware to be baked at +125 C for 72 hours to kill microbugs to avoid any biological contamination, especially for sample return missions. Therefore, the present CCGA package reliability research study has encompassed the temperature range of 185 to +125 C to cover various NASA deep space missions. Advanced 1152 and 1272 CCGA packaging interconnects technology test hardware objects have been subjected to ex treme temperature thermal cycles from 185 to +125 C. X-ray inspections of CCGA packages have been made before thermal cycling. No anomalous behavior and process problems were observed in the x-ray images. The change in resistance of the daisy-chained CCGA interconnects was measured as a function of increasing number of thermal cycles. Electrical continuity measurements of daisy chains have shown no anomalies, even until 596 thermal cycles. Optical inspections of hardware have shown a significant fatigue for CCGA 1152 packages over CCGA 1272 packages. No catastrophic failures have been observed yet in the results. Process qualification and assembly are required to optimize the CCGA assembly processes. Optical inspections of CCGA boards have been made after 258 and 596 thermal cycles. Corner columns have started showing significant fatigue per optical inspection results.

Ramesham, Rajeshuni↗

Arcjet Testing of Micro-Meteoroid Impacted Thermal Protection Materials

There are several harsh space environments that could affect thermal protection systems and in turn pose risks to the atmospheric entry vehicles. These environments include micrometeoroid impact, extreme cold temperatures, and ionizing radiation during deep space cruise, all followed by atmospheric entry heating. To mitigate these risks, different thermal protection material samples were subjected to multiple tests, including hyper velocity impact, cold soak, irradiation, and arcjet testing, at various NASA facilities that simulated these environments. The materials included a variety of honeycomb packed ablative materials as well as carbon-based non-ablative thermal protection systems. The present paper describes the results of the multiple test campaign with a focus on arcjet testing of thermal protection materials. The tests showed promising results for ablative materials. However, the carbon-based non-ablative system presented some concerns regarding the potential risks to an entry vehicle. This study provides valuable information regarding the capability of various thermal protection materials to withstand harsh space environments, which is critical to sample return and planetary entry missions.

Agrawal, Parul↗

Fundamentals of Cryogenics

Analysis of the extreme conditions that are encountered in cryogenic systems requires the most effort out of analysts and engineers. Due to the costs and complexity associated with the extremely cold temperatures involved, testing is sometimes minimized and extra analysis is often relied upon. This short course is designed as an introduction to cryogenic engineering and analysis, and it is intended to introduce the basic concepts related to cryogenic analysis and testing as well as help the analyst understand the impacts of various requests on a test facility. Discussion will revolve around operational functions often found in cryogenic systems, hardware for both tests and facilities, and what design or modelling tools are available for performing the analysis. Emphasis will be placed on what scenarios to use what hardware or the analysis tools to get the desired results. The class will provide a review of first principles, engineering practices, and those relations directly applicable to this subject including such topics as cryogenic fluids, thermodynamics and heat transfer, material properties at low temperature, insulation, cryogenic equipment, instrumentation, refrigeration, testing of cryogenic systems, cryogenics safety and typical thermal and fluid analysis used by the engineer. The class will provide references for further learning on various topics in cryogenics for those who want to dive deeper into the subject or have encountered specific problems.

Testing↗

Coordinating Chemical and Mineralogical Analyses of Antarctic Dry Valley Sediments as Potential Analogs for Mars

The Antarctic Dry Valleys (ADV) provide a unique terrestrial analog for Martian surface processes as they are extremely cold and dry sedimentary environments. The surface geology and the chemical composition of the Dry Valleys that are similar to Mars suggest the possible presence of these soil-formation processes on Mars. The soils and sediments from Wright Valley, Antarctica were investigated in this study to examine mineralogical and chemical changes along the surface layer in this region and as a function of depth. Surface samples collected near Prospect Mesa and Don Juan Pond of the ADV were analyzed using visible/near-infrared (VNIR) and mid-IR reflectance spectroscopy and major and trace element abundances.

Patel, S. N.↗

Investigating the Effects of Temperature on the Signatures of Shocks Propagated Through Impacts into Minerals Found in Comets and Asteroids

Comets and asteroids are subjected to extremely cold conditions throughout their lifetimes. During their sojourns in the solar system, they are subjected to collisions at speeds that are easily capable of generating shock waves in their constituent materials. In addition to ices, more common silicate minerals such as olivines and pyroxenes are important components of these objects. The collision-induced shocks could affect the spectral signatures of those mineral components, which could in turn be detected telescopically. We have embarked on a project to determine how impact-generated shock might affect the reflectance spectra and structures of select silicates as both impact speed and target temperature are varied systematically. While the effects of impact speed (in the form of shock stress) on numerous materials have been and continue to be studied, the role of target temperature has received comparatively little attention, presumably because of the operational difficulties it can introduce to experimentation. Our experiments were performed with the vertical gun in the Experimental Impact Laboratory of the Johnson Space Center. A liquid-nitrogen system was plumbed to permit cooling of the target container and its contents under vacuum to temperatures as low as -100 C (173 K). Temperatures were monitored by thermocouples mounted on the outside of the target container. Because those sensors were not in contact with the target material at impact, the measured temperatures are treated as lower limits for the actual values. Peridot (Mg-rich olivine) and enstatite (Mg-rich orthopyroxene) were used as targets, which involved the impact of alumina (Al2O3) spheres at speeds of 2.0 - 2.7 km s(exp -1) and temperatures covering 25 C to -100 C (298 K to 173 K). We have begun collecting and analyzing data in the near to mid-IR with a Fourier-transform infrared spectrometer, and preliminary analyses show that notable differences in absorption-band strength and position occur as functions of both impact speed (peak shock stress) and initial temperature.

Lederer, Susan M.↗

Mitigating Climate Change with Earth Orbital Sunshades

An array of rotating sunshades based on emerging solar sail technology will be deployed in a novel Earth orbit to provide near-continuous partial shading of the Earth, reducing the heat input to the atmosphere by blocking a small percentage of the incoming sunlight, and mitigating local weather effects of anticipated climate change over the next century. The technology will provide local cooling relief during extreme heat events (and heating relief during extreme cold events) thereby saving human lives, agriculture, livestock, water and energy needs. A synthesis of the solar sail design, the sails' operational modes, and the selected orbit combine to provide local weather modification.

Coverstone, Victoria↗

Water Phase Change Heat Exchanger System Level Analysis for Low Lunar Orbit

In low Lunar orbit (LLO) the thermal environment is cyclic - extremely cold in the eclipse and as warm as room temperature near the subsolar point. Phase change material heat exchangers (PCHXs) are the best option for long term missions in these environments. The Orion spacecraft will use a n-pentadecane wax PCHX for its envisioned mission to LLO. Using water as a PCM material is attractive because its higher heat of fusion and greater density result in a lighter, more compact PCHX. To assess the use of a water PCHX for a human spacecraft in a circular LLO, a system level analysis was performed for the Orion spacecraft. Three cases were evaluated: 1) A one-to-one replacement of the wax PCHX on the internal thermal control loop with a water PCHX (including the appropriate control modifications), 2) reducing the radiator return setpoint temperature below Orion's value to enhance PCHX freezing, and 3) placing the water PCM on the external loop. The model showed that the water PCHX could not be used as a drop-in replacement for the wax PCHX. It did not freeze fully during the eclipse owing to its low freezing point. To obtain equivalent performance, 40% more radiator area than the Orion baseline was required. The study shows that, although water PCHXs are attractive at a component level, system level effects mean that they are not the best choice for LLO.

Navarro, Moses↗

The Safe Removal of Frozen Air from the Annulus of an LH2 Storage Tank

Large Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) storage tanks are vital infrastructure for NASA. Eventually, air may leak into the evacuated and perlite filled annular region of these tanks. Although the vacuum level is monitored in this region, the extremely cold temperature causes all but the helium and neon constituents of air to freeze. A small, often unnoticeable pressure rise is the result. As the leak persists, the quantity of frozen air increases, as does the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Consequently, a notable increase in commodity boil-off is often the first indicator of an air leak. Severe damage can result from normal draining of the tank. The warming air will sublimate which will cause a pressure rise in the annulus. When the pressure increases above the triple point, the frozen air will begin to melt and migrate downward. Collection of liquid air on the carbon steel outer shell may chill it below its ductility range, resulting in fracture. In order to avoid a structural failure, as described above, a method for the safe removal of frozen air is needed. A thermal model of the storage tank has been created using SINDA/FLUINT modeling software. Experimental work is progressing in an attempt to characterize the thermal conductivity of a perlite/frozen nitrogen mixture. A statistical mechanics model is being developed in parallel for comparison to experimental work. The thermal model will be updated using the experimental/statistical mechanical data, and used to simulate potential removal scenarios. This paper will address methodologies and analysis techniques for evaluation of two proposed air removal methods.

cryogenic insulation↗

Thermal Management and Thermal Protection Systems

During my internship in the Thermal Design Branch (ES3), I contributed to two main projects: i) novel passive thermal management system for future human exploration, ii) AVCOAT undercut thermal analysis. i) As NASA prepares to further expand human and robotic presence in space, it is well known that spacecraft architectures will be challenged with unprecedented thermal environments. Future exploration activities will have the need of thermal management systems that can provide higher reliability, mass and power reduction and increased performance. In an effort to start addressing the current technical gaps the NASA Johnson Space Center Passive Thermal Discipline has engaged in technology development activities. One of these activities was done through an in-house Passive Thermal Management System (PTMS) design for a lunar lander. The proposed PTMS, functional in both microgravity and gravity environments, consists of three main components: a heat spreader, a novel hybrid wick Variable Conductance Heat Pipe (VCHP), and a radiator. The aim of this PTMS is to keep electronics on a vehicle within their temperature limits (0 and 50 C for the current design) during all mission phases including multiple lunar day/night cycles. The VCHP was tested to verify its thermal performance. I created a thermal math model using Thermal Desktop (TD) and analyzed it to predict the PTMS performance. After testing, the test data provided a means to correlate the thermal math model. This correlation took into account conduction and convection heat transfer, representing the actual benchtop test. Since this PTMS is proposed for space missions, a vacuum test will be taking place to provide confidence that the system is functional in space environments. Therefore, the model was modified to include a vacuum chamber with a liquid nitrogen shroud while taking into account conduction and radiation heat transfer. Infrared Lamps were modelled and introduced into the model to simulate the sun's rays directly impinging on the system. Heating rate of the lamps were calculated by knowing fraction of emitted energy in a wavelength interval and the filament temperature. This version of the model can be used to predict performance of the system under vacuum with extreme cold or hot conditions. Initial testing of the PTMS showed promise, and the thermal math model predicts even better performance in thermal vacuum testing. ii) Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) are required for vehicles which enter earth's atmosphere to protect from aerodynamic heating caused by the friction between the vehicle and atmospheric gases. Orion's heat shield design has two aspects which needed to be analyzed thermally: i) a small excess of adhesive used to bond the outer AVCOAT layer to the inner composite structure tends to seep from under the AVCOAT and form a small bead in between two bricks of AVCOAT, ii) a silicone rubber with different thermophysical properties than AVCOAT fills the gap between two bricks of AVCOAT. I created a thermal model using TD to determine temperature differences that are caused by these two features. To prevent false results, all TD models must be verified against something known. In this case, the TD model was correlated to CHAR, an ablation modelling software used to analyze TPS. Analyzing a node far from the concerning features, we saw that the TD model data match CHAR data, verifying the TD model. Next, the temperature of the silicone rubber as well as the bead of adhesive were analyzed to determine if they exceeded allowable temperatures. It was determined that these two features do not have a significant effect on the max temperature of the heat shield. This model can be modified to check temperatures at various locations of the heat shield where the composite thickness varies.

Hasnain, Aqib↗

Photo-Luminescent Targets in Space

Photo-luminescent ("glow in the dark") products have seen a dramatic increase in performance is the last 15 years with the use of a strontium aluminate formulation. Because of this, ISS uses photo-luminescent markers for interior emergency egress guidance. The marker is COTS material composed of strontium aluminate doped with europium, imbedded in PVC and achieves a light emission performance rated at 600/90 (600 mcd at 10 minutes and 90 mcd at 1 hour, 2 mcd is minimum required for human visibility). The ICA goal is to determine this material's effectiveness for use externally on ISS and/or on visiting vehicles, when packaged in Lexan for UV protection. A thermal test was conducted by EC to characterize the luminance emission profile of the material at extreme cold and hot temperatures, such as experienced on ISS.

Maida, James↗

Resource Prospector, the Decadal Survey and the Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon

The Inner Planets Panel of the Planetary Exploration Decadal Survey defined several science questions related to the origins, emplacement, and sequestration of lunar polar volatiles: 1. What is the lateral and vertical distribution of the volatile deposits? 2. What is the chemical composition and variability of polar volatiles? 3. What is the isotopic composition of the volatiles? 4. What is the physical form of the volatiles? 5. What is the rate of the current volatile deposition? A mission concept study, the Lunar Polar Volatiles Explorer (LPVE), defined a approximately $1B New Frontiers mission to address these questions. The NAS/NRC report, 'Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon' identified he lunar poles as special environments with important implications. It put forth the following goals: Science Goal 4a-Determine the compositional state (elemental, isotopic, mineralogic) and compositional distribution (lateral and depth) of the volatile component in lunar polar regions. Science Goal 4b-Determine the source(s) for lunar polar volatiles. Science Goal 4c-Understand the transport, retention, alteration, and loss processes that operate on volatile materials at permanently shaded lunar regions. Science Goal 4d-Understand the physical properties of the extremely cold (and possibly volatile rich) polar regolith. Science Goal 4e-Determine what the cold polar regolith reveals about the ancient solar environment.

Moon↗

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and Lunar Liquid Oxygen Derived from FeO-Rich Pyroclastic Deposits

Studies conducted by NASA and its contractors (early 1980s early 1990s) indicated a substantial benefit from using lunar-derived propellants specifically lunar-derived LO2 (LLO2) or LUNOX in a lunar space transportation system (LTS). With a LTS using LO2/LH2 chemical rockets, approx. 6 kilograms (kg) of mass in low Earth orbit (LEO) is required to place 1 kg of payload on the lunar surface (LS). Of this 6 kg, approx. 70% (4.2 kg) is propellant and 6/7th of this mass (3.6 kg) is oxygen assuming an O/H MR 6:1. Since the cost of placing a kilogram of mass on the LS is approx. 6X the cost of delivering it to LEO, the ability to produce and utilize LUNOX or lunar-derived LO2 and hydrogen (LLH2) from lunar polar ice (LPI) deposits can provide significant mission leverage. Providing LUNOX for use in fuel cells, life support systems and LO2/LH2 chemical rockets used on lunar landing vehicles (LLVs), can allow high value cargo (people, manufacturing and scientific equipment, etc.) to be transported to LEO, then to the Moon instead of bulk LO2 propellant. Oxygen is abundant in the lunar regolith (approx. 43% by mass) and can be extracted using a variety of techniques, such as hydrogen reduction of ilmenite (FeOTiO2) or FeO-rich volcanic glass (orange soil) discovered during the Apollo 17 mission to Taurus-Littrow. While considerable interest has been expressed about mining and processing LPI for rocket propellant, ground truth must first be established to quantify the physical state of the ice (e.g., its vertical thickness and areal extent, levels of soil contamination, etc.) and the deep, extremely cold (approx. 26-100 K) permanently shadowed craters where the ice resides.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗

Transient Heater Analysis for Orion Thermal Vacuum Testing

The Space Environments Complex (SEC) at NASA's Plum Brook Station is currently being prepared to perform thermal vacuum testing of the Orion spacecraft. This thermal vacuum, or T-VAC test will be run for a period of 60 days, which will be the longest such test ever conducted at SEC. The Orion Crew Module (CM) and Service Module (SM) will undergo T-VAC testing in SEC's Space Simulation Vacuum Chamber to ensure the functionality of these systems in a high vacuum environment at extremely cold temperatures. The T-VAC test setup in SEC was modeled and simulated in Thermal Desktop. The initial results from thermal analysis showed areas on the chamber floor to reach very low temperatures, which were below the minimum operating range of certain hardware located on or near the chamber floor. These hardware including elastomeric seals on the GN2 piping, bearing pads and O-rings are essential to both test and the operation of the SEC facility, and must be kept well above -20°F throughout the duration of the T-VAC test. Thus, further analysis was conducted to include the placement of patch heaters on the chamber floor in an effort to increase the temperature near colder areas on the floor. The results and findings from this analysis showed that using these heaters will result in a favorable temperature distribution on the chamber floor. This paper will discuss the methods used in the analysis, and the results obtained to determine the optimal configuration of these heaters on the chamber floor.

Wilhite, Jarred↗

Transient Heater Analysis for Orion Thermal Vacuum Testing

The Space Environments Complex (SEC) at NASA’s Plum Brook Station is currently being prepared to perform thermal vacuum testing of the Orion spacecraft. This thermal vacuum, or T-VAC test will be run for a period of 60 days, which will be the longest such test ever conducted at SEC. The Orion Crew Module (CM) and Service Module (SM) will undergo T-VAC testing in SEC’s Space Simulation Vacuum Chamber to ensure the functionality of these systems in a high vacuum environment at extremely cold temperatures. The T-VAC test setup in SEC was modeled and simulated in Thermal Desktop. The initial results from thermal analysis showed areas on the chamber floor to reach very low temperatures, which were below the minimum operating range of certain hardware located on or near the chamber floor. These hardware including elastomeric seals on the GN2 piping, bearing pads and O-rings are essential to both test and the operation of the SEC facility, and must be kept well above -20°F throughout the duration of the T-VAC test. Thus, further analysis was conducted to include the placement of patch heaters on the chamber floor in an effort to increase the temperature near colder areas on the floor. The results and findings from this analysis showed that using these heaters will result in a favorable temperature distribution on the chamber floor. This paper will discuss the methods used in the analysis, and the results obtained to determine the optimal configuration of these heaters on the chamber floor.

Wilhite, Jarred↗

Analysis of the 2019 Midwest US Flooding Using NASA Data

In the wake of Winter Storm Ulmer, an intense "bomb cyclone" that set preliminary low-pressure records, historic flooding occurred in 41 locations across the Midwest United States, causing many streams and rivers - including the Platte, Missouri, and Elkhorn Rivers - to rise to all-time record flood levels in Nebraska. Warm and dry conditions, along with 4-8 inches of snowfall, and over 1" of rain caused over 3-5" of storm water runoff from rapid melting.A rare confluence of circumstances produced the flooding, including extreme cold earlier in the winter that preserved a significant amount of snowfall, a thick layer of ice on waterways, and the large downpour of rain from Winter Storm Ulmer. Unusually warm air caused the snow and ice to rapidly melt, producing record amounts of runoff within a short period of time. This poster presents several data sets from NASA and the USGS (our partner agency) that can be used in analyzing floods and flood areas, including soil moisture, snowfall, floodwater areas, vicinity of urban areas and impervious surfaces, and proximity of strategic or critical infrastructure.

DAAC↗

Micro-grid for Future Planetary Surface Needs

Under the current Artemis Program, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) will send its next set of astronauts (first woman and next man) to the Moon by 2024 and establish a sustainable presence on the lunar surface by 2028. The challenge of creating a sustained lunar surface presence is significantly different than previous efforts. Lunar surface operations will require access to continuous and highly reliable power to support mission needs, such as to support ISRU operations. Adding to this challenge, the lunar surface operations are not going to be established over a single effort, rather the system and operations will evolve and grow over time (years). The first initial loads that arrive on the lunar surface will be integrated to their own dedicated power sources. As the lunar surface operations grow, so will the demand for power and at some point these individual loads will require more power than can be generated with any single power device. This power demand drives the need for inter-connecting the loads and power devices to share power between them, resulting in a micro-grid. One of the advantages of developing a lunar surface micro-grid is that allows lunar surface operations to resemble electrical utility operations on Earth; it allows power to be generated where it is convenient and allows power to be consumed where it is convenient, rather than negotiating between generation and consumption. The micro-grid concept also provides another benefit of affording the ability to increase overall system reliability by integrating dissimilar power generation and energy storage devices together, for example modifying the power generation strategy to include both solar arrays and nuclear. Creating a lunar surface micro-grid has its advantages, however there are significant challenges associated with an evolvable micro-grid concept. The challenges include how to efficiently transmit large amounts of power (10kW+) long distances (1kW+), how to effectively integrate dissimilar power generation and energy storage devices to maximize power consumption and minimize downtime, and how to physically connect these devices together with a connector that can survive the lunar environment (dust, extreme cold temperatures) and is capable of both astronaut and robotic operation. The basic components of the micro-grid have to be designed to ensure the system is sustainable, modular, and reconfigurable. An interface to the micro-grid has to be designed that allows for additional technologies, some of which may not yet be fully designed, to easily integrate into the micro-grid concept. This presentation discusses these lunar challenges in some more depth and offers a path forward in designing an evolvable micro-grid to meet the needs of the lunar surface operations and proposes a Universal Micro-grid Interface Converter to connect these dissimilar power sources and mission loads to the micro-grid.

Jeffrey Csank↗

The Search for Chiral Asymmetry as a Potential Biosignature in Samples from Mars

The search for evidence of extraterrestrial life in our solar system is currently guided by our understanding of terrestrial biology and its associated biosignatures. The observed homochirality in all life on Earth, that is, the predominance of “left-handed” or L-amino acids and “right-handed” or D-sugars, is a unique property of life that is crucial for molecular recognition, enzymatic function, information storage and structure and is thought to be a prerequisite for the origin or early evolution of life. Therefore, the detection of L- or D-enantiomeric excesses of chiral amino acids and sugars could be a powerful indicator of extant or extinct life on Mars or other habitable environments in our solar system. The exploration of habitable environments on Mars, including an assessment of the preservation potential for complex organics of either abiotic or biological origin, remains a key goal of both current and future Mars missions. Now with the unambiguous detection of indigenous organic matter in sedimentary rocks on Mars [1-3], NASA’s Curiosity rover has significantly advanced our understanding of the preservation of potential chemical biosignatures in the martian near surface. Although amino acids have not yet been identified by in situ measurements on Mars, if they were present, it is expected that amino acid hydrolysis and racemization would be very slow and any chiral or isotopic signatures from an extinct martian biota could be preserved for billions of years, given the extremely cold and dry surface conditions [4]. One of ESA’s Rosalind Franklin rover payload instruments called the Mars Organic Molecule Analyzer (MOMA) includes a wet chemistry package capable of measuring the enantiomeric ratios of any chiral amino acids present at part-per-million concentrations or higher [5]. The complexity and limited duration of spaceflight operations and the known analytical challenges associated with in situ extraction and characterization of trace reduced organic compounds in ancient rocks make it challenging to determine the origins of martian organic matter found to date. Coordinated state-of-the-art laboratory measurements of returned samples from Mars that include spatially resolved chemical, mineralogical, and isotopic studies and molecule-specific isotopic and enantiomeric measurements will be required to firmly establish whether the complex organic matter detected on Mars comes from biotic or abiotic sources. Ultimately, sample return may be our best chance of identifying chemical biosignatures from a past or present martian biota, if one ever existed on Mars. NASA’s Perseverance rover will collect dozens of surface sample cores for possible future return to Earth by NASA and ESA. Here we review our current knowledge of the distributions and enantiomeric and isotopic compositions of non-biological amino acids found in meteorites compared to terrestrial biochemistry and propose a set of measurement criteria that should be used to help establish the origin of any chiral asymmetry detected in samples from Mars [6].

Daniel P Glavin↗

Radiometric Stability in 16 years of AIRS Hyperspectral Infrared Data (SPIE OP-431-20)

With global warming at the rate of 10 mK/yr, it is important to at least characterize any trend in the AIRS data, which may impact the use of AIRS data for climate change research. We evaluated the stability of the AIRS v5 calibration for seven atmospheric window channels between 2002 and 2018 under tropical ocean clear conditions. Trends for the channels between 961, 1128 and 1231 cm-1 channels are typically +3 mK/yr; for 790 and 901 cm-1 the trend is 6 mK/yr, i.e. the observations are increasingly getting warmer than expected. The trends are day/night consistent. The trend for the 2508 and 2616 cm-1 channels is close to 10 mK/yr at night, but closer to 6 mK/yr during the day. On an absolute scale these trends are small, but not when viewed in the context of global warming at a 10 mK/yr rate. While the warming trends are consistent with increased scattering from the scan mirrors, which create an error in reading the Onboard Blackbody Calibration, the resulting changes in the gain are a factor of about five larger than observed changes in the gain. The effects of scattering due to scan mirror contamination are evident at extremely cold temperatures, but scattering does not produce the observed warming at warm temperatures. It is possible that much of the observed warming in the AIRS window channels is a geophysical effect related to the warming of the oceans, resulting in a shift in the diurnal cycle and skin effect correction. This requires more careful evaluation.

Manning, Evan M.↗