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NASA NTRS2013

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at various scales, thereby increasing the capacity of national and regional institutions that lack drought early warning systems or complementing existing ones. A further goal is to improve coordination of information delivery for drought-related activities and relief efforts across the world. This is especially relevant for regions and nations with low capacity for drought early warning. To do this requires a global partnership that leverages the resources necessary and develops capabilities at the global level, such as global drought forecasting combined with early warning tools, global real-time monitoring, and harmonized methods to identify critical areas vulnerable to drought. Although the path to a fully functional GDEWS is challenging, multiple partners and organizations within the drought, forecasting, agricultural, and water-cycle communities are committed to working toward its success.

GDEWS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assimilated Hydrological Data at NASA GES DISC with Examples of Extreme Events

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy rainfall, heatwave, floods and droughts, and strong wind, can have devastating impacts on society. NASA and NOAA, based on independent analyses, recently announced that global surface temperatures in 2018 are the fourth warmest since 1880, behind only those of 2016, 2017, and 2015 (nasa.gov). Also in 2018, the United States experienced 14 billion-dollar disasters, ranking as the fourth highest total number of such events, behind only the years 2017, 2011, and 2016 (climate.gov). Many research studies have focused on acquiring observational and modeling data, to reveal linkages between increasing extreme events, global water and energy cycle, and global climate change. However, draw conclusions is still a challenge. NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center is one of twelve NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) data centers that process, archive, document, and distribute data from Earth science missions and related projects. The GES DISC hosts a wide range of remotely-sensed and model data and provides reliable and robust data access and services to users worldwide. This presentation provides a few examples of extreme event study that use Land Surface Model (LSM) assimilated, quality-controlled, and spatially and temporally consistent, hydrological data from the GES DISC. Also provided is a summary table for the hydrological data holdings, along with discussions of recent updates to data and data services.

Rui, Hualan↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Evolution of Tropical and Extratropical Precipitation During ENSO Events

Many studies have tried to relate ENSO and global precipitation. This work examines changes in precipitation pattern, amount and intensity during ENSO events over the past 20+ years, using satellite-gauge merged data sets. ENSOs vary in duration and may peak at different times of the year. In this way, compositing events into seasons, such as onset, mature, and decay, is a challenge. This study will explore the sensitivity of using fixed versus variable month seasons to describe El Ninos and La Ninas. Global precipitation patterns will be shown. Both increases and decreases in rainfall are observed during ENSO, and there are more extreme and less 'normal' rain rates (i.e. a greater occurrence of drought and flood) in space and time. In the Southern Hemisphere during ENSO there is a spiral pattern of precipitation anomalies, centered at the pole, that agrees with previous studies looking at model-generated surface pressure. This study also examines the evolution of precipitation and SST in the tropical Pacific. The relation between the Maritime Continent convection center and the underlying surface temperatures of the islands will also be explored. An examination of the evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry area surrounding Indonesia, preceded the formation of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean, 30-60 day oscillations in the winter of 1996/97 may have contributed to this lag relationship. A similar time line of onset was observed during the 1982-83 El Nino. These two events were comparable in strength and timing during the annual cycle. However, in the 1982-83 event the warming at the surface first appeared in the central Pacific, whereas in the 1997-98 event the warming first emerged off the coast of Peru. In both events the positive precipitation anomalies were first observed in the central Pacific, moving to the east Pacific within a month or two.

Curtis, W. R. Scott, III↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Knowledge Graph Framework for Organizing Heterogeneous Datasets for Utilization in Classical and Quantum Computing: Current Challenges and Future Directions

"The escalating impact of climate change induced extreme weather events in urban, suburban, and rural environments demands a rethink of how we have been using the single event-based or use-case-based knowledge graph models. The lack of representation in interaction within environmental variables found in literature led to the development of a novel framework that reflects the true nature of the interconnectedness in our environment. We propose an Environmental Interaction Knowledge Graph (EIKG) framework. This general EIKG framework works as the basis for interconnected environmental events by knitting interrelated events such as hurricanes leading to storm surges, which lead to flood events that could cause mudslides, landslides, etc., The cascading nature of one event leading to another related event in the environment requires an adequate understanding of each event using contextual information before conducting any data-driven analytics. This vision paper showcases how the EIKG:floods, EIKG:wildfire EIKG:landslides, etc, can be derived from a base case framework of EIKG as those individual events are interconnected with some common denominator variables. As an example, the precipitation variable is used in the flood case study as well as in the wildfire case study, as excessive precipitation levels lead to floods, and lack of precipitation leads to droughts and wildfires. We identify the precipitation variable as a “common-denominator-variable” in extreme weather events that play a key role in modeling the environment leading to different extreme weather events based on the variability of that variable (varying values where low precipitation leads to drought, and high values lead to floods). We use the insights gained from EIKG to conduct classical and Quantum Machine Learning (QML) based data analysis on the research questions developed. Our preliminary study shows how the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) and Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) are used along with the classical machine learning models to compare the model accuracies. Our study elaborates on how a quantitative analysis uses state-of-the-art machine learning techniques that include implementing both classical and quantum machine learning models and developing the knowledge graph. The EIKG is used to organize heterogeneous datasets and integrate the relations to case-specific extreme weather events such as floods. The study uses datasets such as county-to-country residential mobility data, socioeconomic datasets from the US Census Bureau, climate and weather-related Earth Observational data from NASA, and critical infrastructure data from the Homeland Infrastructure datasets."

Knowledge Graphs, Quantum Computing, Heterogenous ↗
NASA NTRS2022

Linkages Between GRACE Water Storage, Hydrologic Extremes, and Climate Teleconnections in Major African Aquifers

Water resources management is a critical issue in Africa where many regions are subjected to sequential droughts and floods. The objective of our work was to assess spatiotemporal variability in water storage and related controls (climate, human intervention) in major African aquifers and consider approaches toward more sustainable development. Different approaches were used to track water storage, including GRACE/GRACE Follow On satellites for Total Water Storage (TWS); satellite altimetry for reservoir storage, MODIS satellites for vegetation indices, and limited ground-based monitoring. Results show that declining trends in TWS (60–73 km3 over the 18 yr GRACE record) were restricted to aquifers in northern Africa, controlled primarily by irrigation water use in the Nubian and NW Saharan aquifers. Rising TWS trends were found in aquifers in western Africa (23–49 km3), attributed to increased recharge from land use change and cropland expansion. Interannual variability dominated TWS variability in eastern and southern Africa, controlled primarily by climate extremes. Climate teleconnections, particularly El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, strongly controlled droughts and floods in eastern and southern Africa. Huge aquifer storage in northern Africa suggests that the recent decadal storage declines should not impact the regional aquifers but may affect local conditions. Increasing groundwater levels in western Africa will need to be managed because of locally rising groundwater flooding. More climate resilient water management can be accomplished in eastern and southern Africa by storing water from wet to dry climate cycles. Accessing the natural water storage provided by aquifers in Africa is the obvious way to manage the variability between droughts and floods.

Africa water storage↗
NASA NTRS2012

GPM Mission Overview and U.S. Science Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational sensors to provide "next-generation" precipitation products [1-2]. Water is fundamental to life on Earth. Knowing where and how much rain and snow falls globally is vital to understanding how weather and climate impact both our environment and Earth's water and energy cycles, including effects on agriculture, fresh water availability, and responses to natural disasters. Since rainfall and snowfall vary greatly from place to place and over time, satellites can provide more uniform observations of rain and snow around the globe than ground instruments, especially in areas where surface measurements are difficult. Relative to current global rainfall products, GPM data products will be characterized by: (l) more accurate instantaneous precipitation measurements (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) more frequent sampling by an expanded constellation of domestic and international microwave radiometers including operational humidity sounders, (3) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a unified framework, and (4) physical-based precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori cloud/hydrometeor database derived from GPM Core sensor measurements. The cornerstone of the GPM mission is the deployment of a Core Observatory in a unique 65 non-Sun-synchronous orbit to serve as a physics observatory and a reference standard to unify precipitation measurements by a constellation of dedicated and operational passive microwave sensors. The design of the GPM Core Observatory is an advancement of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s highly successful rain-sensing package. The Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a multichannel (l0-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). Since light rain and falling snow account for a significant fraction of precipitation occurrence in middle and high latitudes, the GPM instruments extend the capabilities of the TRMM sensors to detect falling snow, measure light rain, and provide, for the first time, quantitative estimates of microphysical properties of precipitation particles. The combined use of DPR and GMI measurements will place greater constraints on possible solutions to radiometer retrievals to improve the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. The GMI uses 13 different microwave channels to observe energy from the different types of precipitation through clouds for estimating everything from heavy to light rain and for detecting falling snow. As the satellite passes over Earth, the GMI constantly scans a region 885 kilometers across. The Ball Aerospace and Technology Corporation built the GMI under contract with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The DPR provides three-dimensional information about precipitation particles derived from reflected energy by these particles at different heights within the cloud system. The two frequencies of the DPR also allow the radar to infer the sizes of precipitation particles and offer insights into a storm's physical characteristics. The Ka-band frequen~y scans across a region of 125 kilometers and is nested within the wider scan of the Ku-band frequency of 245 kilometers. The Japan Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Japan's National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) built the DPR. The Core Observatory satellite will fly at an altitude of 253 miles (407 kilometers) in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit that covers the Earth from 65 S to 65 N - from about the Antarctic Circle to the Arctic Circle. The GPM Core Observatory is being developed and tested at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Once complete, a Japanese H-lIA rocket will carry thPM Core Observatory into orbit from Tanegashima Island, Japan in 2014. The GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise 8 or more microwave sensors provided by partners, including both conical imagers and cross-track sounders. GPM is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Additional partnerships are under development to include microwave radiometers on the French-Indian Megha-Tropiques satellite and U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, as well as humidity sounders or precipitation sensors on operational satellites such as the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), NOAA-NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, European MetOp satellites, and DMSP follow-on sensors. In addition, data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers may be available through international cooperation under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). GPM's next-generation global precipitation data will lead to scientific advances and societal benefits in the following areas: (1) Improved knowledge of the Earth's water cycle and its link to climate change (2) New insights into precipitation microphysics, storm structures and large-scale atmospheric processes (3) Better understanding of climate sensitivity and feedback processes (4) Extended capabilities in monitoring and predicting hurricanes and other extreme weather events (5) Improved forecasting capabilities for natural hazards, including floods, droughts and landslides. (6) Enhanced numerical prediction skills for weather and climate (7) Better agricultural crop forecasting and monitoring of freshwater resources. An overview of the GPM mission concept and science activities in the United States, together with an update on international collaborations in radiometer intercalibration and ground validation, will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating ESA CCI Soil Moisture in East Africa

To assess growing season conditions where ground based observations are limited or unavailable, food security and agricultural drought monitoring analysts rely on publicly available remotely sensed rainfall and vegetation greenness. There are also remotely sensed soil moisture observations from missions like the European Space Agency (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASAs Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), however these time series are still too short to conduct studies that demonstrate the utility of these data for operational applications, or to provide historical context for extreme wet or dry events. To promote the use of remotely sensed soil moisture in agricultural drought and food security monitoring, we use East Africa as a case study to evaluate the quality of a 30+ year time series of merged active-passive microwave soil moisture from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI-SM). Compared to the Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI) and modeled soil moisture products, we found substantial spatial and temporal gaps in the early part of the CCI-SM record, with adequate data coverage beginning in 1992. From this point forward, growing season CCI-SM anomalies were well correlated (R greater than 0.5) with modeled, seasonal soil moisture, and in some regions, NDVI. We use correlation analysis and qualitative comparisons at seasonal time scales to show that remotely sensed soil moisture can add information to a convergence of evidence framework that traditionally relies on rainfall and NDVI in moderately vegetated regions.

Amy McNally↗
NASA NTRS2002

Satellite Observation of Extremes in Precipitation

The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis and 3-hr semi-global analyses using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data are used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The data sets are also explored to monitor extremes in precipitation related to localized and regional flooding and the occurrence of droughts.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of Water and Energy Budgets and Trends Using the NLDAS Monthly Data Sets

The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is a collaborative project between NASA GSFC, NOAA, Princeton University, and the University of Washington. NLDAS has created surface meteorological forcing data sets using the best-available observations and reanalyses. The forcing data sets are used to drive four separate land-surface models (LSMs), Mosaic, Noah, VIC, and SAC, to produce data sets of soil moisture, snow, runoff, and surface fluxes. NLDAS hourly data, accessible from the NASA GES DISC Hydrology Data Holdings Portal, http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/hydrology/data-holdings, are widely used by various user communities in modeling, research, and applications, such as drought and flood monitoring, watershed and water quality management, and case studies of extreme events. More information is available at http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/. To further facilitate analysis of water and energy budgets and trends, NLDAS monthly data sets have been recently released by NASA GES DISC.

Vollmer, Bruce E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

SST↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observed Changes in Hydroclimate Attributed to Human Forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P–E ) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Drought↗
NASA NTRS2019

AERONET Remotely Sensed Measurements and Retrievals of Biomass Burning Aerosol Optical Properties During the 2015 Indonesian Burning Season

An extreme biomass-burning event occurred in Indonesia from September through October 2015 due to severe drought conditions, partially caused by a major El Nino event, thereby allowing for significant burning of peatland that had been previously drained. This event had the highest sustained aerosol optical depths (AOD) ever monitored by the global Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The newly developed AERONET Version 3 algorithms retain high AOD at the longer wavelengths when associated with high Angstrom Exponents (AEs), which thereby allowed for measurements of AOD at 675 nanometers as high as approximately 7, the upper limit of Sun photometry. Measured AEs at the highest monitored AOD levels were subsequently utilized to estimate instantaneous values of AOD at 550 nanometers in the range of 11 to 13, well beyond the upper measurement limit. Additionally, retrievals of complex refractive indices, size distributions, and single scattering albedos (SSA) were obtained at much higher AOD levels than possible from almucantar scans due to the ability to perform retrievals at smaller solar zenith angles with new hybrid sky radiance scans. For retrievals made at the highest AOD levels the fine mode volume median radii were approximately 0.25 to 0.30 microns, which are very large particles for biomass burning. Very high SSA values (approximately 0.975 from 440 to 1020 nanometers) are consistent with the domination by smoldering combustion of peat burning. Estimates of the percentage peat contribution to total biomass burning aerosol based on retrieved SSA and laboratory measured peat SSA were approximately 80-85 percent, in excellent agreement with independent estimates.

Eck, T. F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating the Performance of GPM IMERG Products for Extreme Precipitation Estimation in Volta River Basin of Ghana

The Volta River basin in West Africa, covering a substantial area of Ghana, faces significant water management challenges due to highly variable rainfall and limited availability of high temporal resolution rain gauges. This study, developed under the 2024 Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission mentorship program, evaluates precipitation in the Volta River basin using high-resolution satellite-derived data from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG). In the absence of sub-daily rainfall data, comparisons were made between daily, monthly, and seasonal precipitation from local gauges and IMERG V06 and V07 (early and final) runs. Results indicated a very weak correlation between daily precipitation estimates from IMERG and gauge data, but a significantly improved correlation for monthly and seasonal estimates. Additionally, IMERG data were used to identify heavy rainfall events and drought periods, which were compared to known occurrences in the region. By addressing these objectives, this study contributes to more accurate extreme precipitation estimation in the Volta River basin, thereby enhancing disaster risk management and climate resilience in Ghana.

Jessica Sutton↗
NASA NTRS2020

Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.

Paris Agreement↗
NASA NTRS1990

AVHRR monitoring of U.S. crops during the 1988 drought

Effects of the 1988 drought on crops in the U.S. Corn Belt were assessed and monitored by the Foreign Crop Condition Assessment Division (FCCAD), U.S. Department of Agriculture. The primary data were vegetation index numbers (VINs), each of which was calculated as an average vegetation index of a geographically referenced cell of AVHRR pixels. Using VINs, the FCCAD was able to detect the existence of drought early in the season, monitor changing conditions, and provide objective assessments of the drought's extent and severity. Field observations confirmed the image analyses, and underlined the importance of the timing of extreme weather events with respect to crop stages for interpreting VINs. The analyses were conducted in an operational environment, providing a unique test of the AVHRR data for large area, near real-time crop monitoring. Because large area, operational remote sensing of crops is quite different from traditional, controlled, small plot research studies, more work is needed to link the two; this would improve crop assessment capabilities.

Teng, William L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Relationship between Mean Winds and Large 10-day Precipitation Anomalies over the Continental U.S.

To better understand the role of surface boundary forcing upon interannual and decadal variability of droughts and precipitation excesses over the continental U. S., an observational study has been carried out to better investigate the dynamical linkages between surface boundary forcing and droughts/floods. This study examines the relationship during the warm season between observed mean wind patterns on the 10-15 day time scale and anomalies in precipitation on that same time scale over the U. S. Each of the 7 cases of significant 10-day, warm-season drought over the U, S. since 1948 that has been investigated was accompanied by significant continental-scale ridging of the mean 10-day 250 mb wind pattern over the continental U.S. and a mid-Pacific relative maximum of 250 mb wind speed of at least 30 m/sec within 20 degrees of the international Date Line. This perhaps suggests the presence of a wave-guide phenomenon over the Pacific. The drought signal for each of these cases was still quite evident when averaged over the monthly time scale. While peak magnitudes of the precipitation anomalies were much larger for the 7 chosen cases of significant of precipitation excess were than for the drought cases none of the patterns of precipitation excess were as unambiguous or wide-spread as the drought cases. In only 2 to 3 cases was there evidence of a continental trough in the 250 mb winds. In fact, one case showed slight ridging over Canada and the extreme northern U.S. Strong southerly low-level jets, however, were evident in the 925 mb winds over south-central Texas or the nearby Gulf of Mexico in virtually all of the excessive precipitation cases, while the Great Plains LLJ was weak or displaced to the north of Texas in most of the drought cases. We will further investigate the asymmetry between droughts and precipitation excesses in their horizontal homogeneity and extent, in their temporal evolution, and in how the are forced by the combined effects of the mean 250 mb westerlies and the mean 925 mb southerly winds.

Helfand, H. Mark↗
NASA NTRS2021

Impact of Recent Climate Extremes on Mosquito-borne Disease Transmission in Kenya

Climate change and variability influence temperature and rainfall, which impact vector abundance and the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability and temperature affect dengue vector populations via a variety of biological processes and thus influence the ability of mosquitoes to effectively transmit disease. However, the effect of droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves is not well understood. Using vector, climate, and dengue disease data collected between 2013 and 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims to elucidate the impact of extreme rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and the risk of arboviral infections. To define extreme periods of rainfall and land surface temperature (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies as deviations from long-term means (1983–2019 for rainfall, 2000–2019 for LST) across four study locations in Kenya. We classified extreme climate events as the upper and lower 10% of these calculated LST or rainfall deviations. Monthly Ae. aegypti abundance was recorded in Kenya using four trapping methods. Blood samples were also collected from children with febrile illness presenting to four field sites and tested for dengue virus using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We found that mosquito eggs and adults were significantly more abundant one month following an abnormally wet month. The relationship between mosquito abundance and dengue risk follows a non-linear association. Our findings suggest that early warnings and targeted interventions during periods of abnormal rainfall and temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute to reductions in risk of viral transmission

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes↗