Results for “failure modes effects and criticality analysis” — Page 8

NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Launch Vehicle↗

NASA NTRS2019

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synthetic Failure Mode Generation for Resilience Analysis and Failure Mechanism Discovery

Traditional risk-based design processes seek to mitigate operational hazards by manually identifying possible faults and corresponding mitigation strategies—a tedious process which critically relies on the designer’s limited knowledge. Resilience-based design, on the other hand, seeks to embody generic hazard-mitigating properties in the system to mitigate unknown hazards, often by modelling the system's response to potential hazardous events. This work adapts this approach to the traditional risk-based design process to synthetically generate hazardous modes, by representing them as a unique combination of internal component health-states which can then be injected and simulated in a model of the system failure dynamics. The design process may then reduce the risk of unknown internal hazards by iteratively mitigating the effects of these modes. The performance of this approach is evaluated in a model of an autonomous rover, where cluster analysis shows that elaborating the space of synthetic faults in the drive system using this approach uncovers a wider range of possible hazardous trajectories and failure consequences within each trajectory. However, this increase in hazard information comes at a high computational expense, highlighting the need for advanced, efficient methods to search and sample the hazard space.

Simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synthetic Failure Mode Generation for Resilience Analysis and Failure Mechanism Discovery

Traditional risk-based design processes seek to mitigate operational hazards by manually identifying possible faults and corresponding mitigation strategies—a tedious process which critically relies on the designer’s limited knowledge. Resilience-based design, on the other hand, seeks to embody generic hazard-mitigating properties in the system to mitigate unknown hazards, often by modelling the system's response to potential hazardous events. This work adapts this approach to the traditional risk-based design process to synthetically generate hazardous modes, by representing them as a unique combination of internal component health-states which can then be injected and simulated in a model of the system failure dynamics. The design process may then reduce the risk of unknown internal hazards by iteratively mitigating the effects of these modes. The performance of this approach is evaluated in a model of an autonomous rover, where cluster analysis shows that elaborating the space of synthetic faults in the drive system using this approach uncovers a wider range of possible hazardous trajectories and failure consequences within each trajectory. However, this increase in hazard information comes at a high computational expense, highlighting the need for advanced, efficient methods to search and sample the hazard space.

Simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

NASA NTRS1962

DESIGN AND TEST EXPERIENCES WITH INSTABILITY OF MAJOR AIRFRAME COMPONENTS

Two test incidents involving instability of large scale commercially built structures are described. Two classes of structure are discussed; the first, a fuselage with skin designed to buckle at low stress, and the second, a wing whose surface remains unbuckled to failure. The structure in the region of failure is defined and the failures described and illustrated. Insofar as possible, the stresses in the critical area at the time of failure are reported and compared to strength determined by analysis. Both fuselage and wing surfaces were observed to fail in the mode of a medium range column when adequate support was provided by ribs and frames. Initial failure in the wing example was premature due to a design deficiency in rib strength. A clear illustration is given of the effect of rib stiffness on wing surface stability. Adding stiffness to wing ribs increases the limit of surface stability to the theoretical flat panel value.

SHELL STABILITY↗

NASA NTRS1974

Reliability inputs to Mariner 9 data explosion

This paper describes the prelaunch and post-launch reliability functions which contributed to the success of the Mariner 9 spacecraft. Examples are included to illustrate how each reliability activity was a vital part of each phase of the project. Prelaunch reliability functions included: (1) establishing, negotiating, and monitoring system and subsystem requirements, (2) participating in spacecraft system and subsystem design/hardware reviews, (3) monitoring preparation of failure mode effects and criticality analyses (FMECA), (4) establishing and managing a problem failure reporting (PFR) system for the spacecraft and its support equipment, (5) monitoring electronic parts activities, and (6) participating in spacecraft reviews. Particular emphasis is placed on mission operations reliability assurance activities, which included: (1) spacecraft problem/failure reporting, (2) managing an integrating failure reporting system which covered all mission operations activities, (3) real-time analysis of spacecraft anomalies, and (4) risk assessment.

Macgregor, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Analyses of Buckling and Stable Tearing in Thin-Sheet Materials

This paper was to verify the STAGS (general shell, geometric and material nonlinear) code and the critical crack tip opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion for predicting stable tearing in cracked panels that fail with severe out of plane buckling. Materials considered ranged from brittle to ductile behavior. Test data used in this study are reported elsewhere. The STAGS code was used to model stable tearing using a critical CTOA value that was determined from a cracked panel that was 'restrained' from buckling. ne analysis methodology was then used to predict the influence of buckling on stable tearing and failure loads. Parameters like crack length to specimen width ratio, crack configuration, thickness, and material tensile properties had a significant influence on the buckling behavior of cracked thin sheet materials. Experimental and predicted results showed a varied buckling response for different crack length to sheet thickness ratios because different buckling modes were activated. Effects of material tensile properties and fracture toughness on buckling response were presented. The STAGS code and the CTOA fracture criterion were able to predict the influence of buckling on stable tearing behavior and failure loads on a variety of materials and crack configurations.

Seshadri, B. R.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Study of Technical Engineering Peer Reviews at NASA

This report describes the state of practices of design reviews at NASA and research into what can be done to improve peer review practices. There are many types of reviews at NASA: required and not, formalized and informal, programmatic and technical. Standing project formal reviews such as the Preliminary Design Review and Critical Design Review are a required part of every project and mission development. However, the technical, engineering peer reviews that support teams' work on such projects are informal, some times ad hoc, and inconsistent across the organization. The goal of this work is to identify best practices and lessons learned from NASA's experience, supported by academic research and methodologies to ultimately improve the process. This research has determined that the organization, composition, scope, and approach of the reviews impact their success. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) can identify key areas of concern before or in the reviews. Product definition tools like the Project Priority Matrix, engineering-focused Customer Value Chain Analysis (CVCA), and project or system-based Quality Function Deployment (QFD) help prioritize resources in reviews. The use of information technology and structured design methodologies can strengthen the engineering peer review process to help NASA work towards error-proofing the design process.

Chao, Lawrence P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Systems Health Monitoring: Integrating FMEA into Bayesian Networks

The foreseeable high traffic density suggests that a large number of electric propulsion systems will enter the airspace, and that they will also operate at high frequency, e.g., large number of take offs and landings per unit time. The reliability of such critical systems is therefore key to ensure high safety standards in the low-altitude airspace. Diagnostic systems, which aim at identifying incipient faults, can mitigate unexpected failures or lower-than-expected reliability by performing early fault detection by monitoring the systems. A key element of fault diagnosis is fault detection and isolation (FDI), which complexity increases with the complexity of the system itself, namely the number of subsystems and components, interactions among sub-systems, and the number of sensors available. The proposed approach leverages combination of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) integrated with Bayesian networks, thus introducing dependability structures into a diagnostic framework to aid FDI. Faults and failure events from the FMEA are mapped within a Bayesian network, where network edges replicate the links embedded within FMEAs. The integrated framework enables the fault isolation process by identifying the probability of occurrence of specific faults or root causes given evidence observed through sensor signals. In this work, sub systems of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) type vehicle like avionics, structures, power-train etc. are taken into account to show the approach at the system level. This work integrates early design phase in the development of UAM type vehicles with diagnostic tools, which are often developed later in the product life-cycle, or retrofitted at a later time on systems. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) derived for the system in the design phase is embedded within a Bayesian network (BN).

UAM↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Material Variability Effects on Damage Development Within Composite Adhesively Bonded Joints

Use of composite adhesively bonded joints (ABJ) is of critical importance to the adoption of composite materials in the automotive industry, as ABJ enable lower stress concentrations as compared to conventional mechanically fastened joints. ABJ are better suited for joining composite materials as compared to fastened joints because fastened joints require drilling of holes which locally affect composite material structure. Composite materials and adhesives are subject to unavoidable stochastic local material variations which make different failure scenarios possible. An experimentally tested ABJ configuration is simulated using finite element analysis (FEA). Experimentally, under tension, the joints failed by three major failure modes, with peak loads ranging from 13.0-16.1 kips. Progressive failure analysis tools are used to simulate damage development within each material within the joint. The simulation agreed well with the average experimental peak load. Stochastically occurring adhesive porosity and matrix-fiber micro-disbonding were numerically simulated. The simulations revealed a similar trend as observed experimentally: joints which failed at higher peak loads had lower levels of damage within the face-sheets of the composite panels which were adhesively bonded; these joints which failed at higher peak loads also had greater damage in the doubler of the experimentally tested double lap joint configuration.

Richard Larson↗

NASA NTRS2002

Effect of Crystal Orientation on Fatigue Failure of Single Crystal Nickel Base Turbine Blade Superalloys

High cycle fatigue (HCF) induced failures in aircraft gas turbine and rocket engine turbopump blades is a pervasive problem. Single crystal nickel turbine blades are being utilized in rocket engine turbopumps and jet engines throughout industry because of their superior creep, stress rupture, melt resistance, and thermomechanical fatigue capabilities over polycrystalline alloys. Currently the most widely used single crystal turbine blade superalloys are PWA 1480/1493, PWA 1484, RENE' N-5 and CMSX-4. These alloys play an important role in commercial, military and space propulsion systems. Single crystal materials have highly orthotropic properties making the position of the crystal lattice relative to the part geometry a significant factor in the overall analysis. The failure modes of single crystal turbine blades are complicated to predict due to the material orthotropy and variations in crystal orientations. Fatigue life estimation of single crystal turbine blades represents an important aspect of durability assessment. It is therefore of practical interest to develop effective fatigue failure criteria for single crystal nickel alloys and to investigate the effects of variation of primary and secondary crystal orientation on fatigue life. A fatigue failure criterion based on the maximum shear stress amplitude /Delta(sub tau)(sub max))] on the 24 octahedral and 6 cube slip systems, is presented for single crystal nickel superalloys (FCC crystal). This criterion reduces the scatter in uniaxial LCF test data considerably for PWA 1493 at 1200 F in air. Additionally, single crystal turbine blades used in the alternate advanced high-pressure fuel turbopump (AHPFTP/AT) are modeled using a large-scale three-dimensional finite element model. This finite element model is capable of accounting for material orthotrophy and variation in primary and secondary crystal orientation. Effects of variation in crystal orientation on blade stress response are studied based on 297 finite element model runs. Fatigue lives at critical points in the blade are computed using finite element stress results and the failure criterion developed. Stress analysis results in the blade attachment region are also presented. Results presented demonstrates that control of secondary and primary crystallographic orientation has the potential to significantly increase a component S resistance to fatigue crack growth with- out adding additional weight or cost. [DOI: 10.1115/1.1413767]

Arakere, N. K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Representation of UAV-obstacle Collision Risk Under Off-nominal Conditions

Safe operations of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace with beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights demand robust risk monitoring of airspace as well as of people and property on ground. One of the safety critical factors for UAV flights is the risk of collision with static and dynamic obstacles in proximity to its flight path. This paper presents a detailed formulation of risk of obstacle collision incorporating the effects of off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts. The risk is represented in terms of a matrix with rows corresponding to the likelihood of occurrence of collision and columns representing severity of collision to the vehicle and surrounding structures. Risk likelihood is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that compiles knowledge from related Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs) and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to determine the probability of collision based on on-board sensor measurements indicative of vehicle health and controllability. Risk severity is computed utilizing a point-mass 3D kinematic model of the vehicle in presence of wind. The proposed risk factor is demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions, level of controllability and obstacle measurement noise on the risk factor is demonstrated. The proposed approach enables risk-informed decision making for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events in autonomous systems.

risk analysis↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling of the Influence of a Damaged Thermally Grown Oxide (TGO) Layer in an Environmental Barrier Coating System

Environmental barrier coatings (EBC) are an enabling technology for the successful application of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in air-breathing gas turbine engines. EBCs are susceptible to a number of failure modes including oxidation/delamination, recessions, chemical attack and dissolution, thermomechanical degradation, erosion, and foreign object impact damage in a combustion environment. Spallation of environmental barrier coating (EBC), induced by a thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer, is a key EBC failure mode. The TGO layer, resulting from steam oxidation, grows either from a silicon bond coat layer (if present) or from a silicon carbide (SiC) based substrate itself. The TGO layer evolves (i.e., thickness increases with time) as water vapor and oxygen gradually diffuse through the EBC, and the EBC spalls off once the TGO layer reaches some critical thickness. The critical thickness of the TGO layer for failure is in the range of 20-30 microns, but it can vary due to exposure temperature, microstructure etc. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center, under the Revolutionary Tools and Methods (RTM) subproject is aimed at addressing associated failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design/analysis of these systems. The objective of the current work is to conduct a sensitivity study to examine the influence of uniformly and non-uniformly grown oxide layers on the associated driving forces leading to spallation of the EBC when subjected to isothermal loading. The effect of damage in the TGO layer on the resulting stress states is also assessed both in uniform and non-uniform TGO layers.

Mital, Subodh K.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Modeling of the Influence of Thermally Grown Oxide (TGO) Layers on the Driving Forces in Environmental Barrier Coating Systems

Environmental barrier coatings (EBC) are an enabling technology for the successful application of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in air-breathing gas turbine engines. EBCs are susceptible to several failure modes including oxidation/delamination, recession, chemical attack and dissolution, thermomechanical degradation, erosion, and foreign object impact damage in a combustion environment. Spallation of environmental barrier coating (EBC), induced by a thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer, is a key EBC failure mode. The TGO layer, resulting from steam oxidation, grows either from a silicon bond coat layer (if present) or from a silicon carbide (SiC) based substrate itself. The TGO layer evolves (i.e., thickness increases with time) as water vapor and oxygen gradually diffuse through the EBC, and the EBC spalls off once the TGO layer reaches some critical thickness. The critical thickness of the TGO layer for failure is in the range of 20-30 microns, with the actual value depending upon exposure temperature, microstructure, etc. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center, under the Transformative Tools and Technology (TTT) subproject is aimed at addressing associated failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design/analysis of these systems. The objective of the current work is to conduct a sensitivity study to examine the influence of uniformly and non-uniformly grown oxide layers on the associated driving forces leading to spallation of the EBC when subjected to isothermal loading. The effect of damage in the TGO layer on the resulting stress states is also assessed both in uniform and non-uniform TGO layers.

Coatings↗

NASA NTRS1975

The effect of ring distortions on buckling of blunt conical shells

A rigorous analytical study of cones stiffened by many thin-gage, open-section rings is presented. The results are compared with data previously obtained from uniform pressure tests of the Viking mission flight aeroshell and of the Viking structural prototype aeroshells. A conventional analysis, in which the rings are modeled as discrete rigid cross sections, is shown to lead to large, unconservative strength predictions. A more sophisticated technique of modeling the rings as shell branches leads to much more realistic strength predictions and more accurately predicts the failure modes. It is also shown that if a small initial imperfection proportional to the shape of the buckling mode is assumed, the critical buckling modes from analysis and test are in agreement. However, the reduction in buckling strength from the perfect-shell predictions is small.

Heard, W. L., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Orbit transfer rocket engine technology program. Phase 2: Advanced engine study

In Phase 2 of the Advanced Engine Study, the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) maintenance-driven engine design, preliminary maintenance plan, and concept for space operable disconnects generated in Phase 1 were further developed. Based on the results of the vehicle contractors Orbit Transfer Vehicle (OTV) Concept Definition and System Analysis Phase A studies, minor revisions to the engine design were made. Additional refinements in the engine design were identified through further engine concept studies. These included an updated engine balance incorporating experimental heat transfer data from the Enhanced Heat Load Thrust Chamber Study and a Rao optimum nozzle contour. The preliminary maintenance plan of Phase 1 was further developed through additional studies. These included a compilation of critical component lives and life limiters and a review of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) operations and maintenance manual in order to begin outlining the overall maintenance procedures for the Orbit Transfer Vehicle Engine and identifying technology requirements for streamlining space-based operations. Phase 2 efforts also provided further definition to the advanced fluid coupling devices including the selection and preliminary design of a preferred concept and a preliminary test plan for its further development.

Erickson, C.↗