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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Generalized Nuclear Code of Accounts for Cost Estimation Standardization

This is a joint INL-EPRI study. Link to corresponding page at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): https://www.epri.com/research/products/000000003002028937 Recent Advanced Reactor (AR) designs typically offer features and attributes that depart from traditional water-cooled reactors in terms of fuel forms, coolants, structural materials, size, safety margins, and other important design and operational aspects. These departures, relative to the industry experience, will likely present a challenge for potential owner-operators when evaluating one or more AR designs for commercial deployment on a like-for-like basis. This is further exacerbated with new classes of reactors gaining prominence (e.g., microreactors) and new emerging applications (e.g., floating barge reactors or space propulsion reactors). The differences in design-specific technologies are compounded by the differences in approach to cost estimation. The lack of consistency in build up toward cost estimates creates a challenge when comparing competing concepts and evaluating their associated cost drivers. The outcome of a 2019 Scoping Study conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) indicated the need for a cost modeling guide (CMG), which would be underpinned by a technology-neutral and inclusive Generalized Nuclear Code of Accounts (GN-COA). A code of accounts (COA) is a tool by which costs are identified in even more specific categories, providing clarity on what specific costs are included in an estimate. A parallel independent effort was meanwhile taking place at Idaho National Laboratory via funding by the Systems Analysis Integration (SA&I) campaign of the Office of Nuclear Energy under the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE-NE) to also update the COA structure to enable more flexibility and encompass a wider variety of reactor technologies. After being made aware of these synergistic efforts, the two parties decided to combine efforts and develop a joint new standard format for nuclear cost estimation that builds on previous structures. This document describes the development of this joint GN-COA and provides guidance on the implementation of the tool, which is provided as the associated GN-COA Excel document. The main attributes of this novel COA format are that all items are functionally defined (in order to be technology and application agnostic) and grouped into logical arrangements that facilitate the tabulation of costs for reactor constructions under consideration. The intent is for the GN-COA to form a standard that is endorsed by future vendors and customers.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arrhenian to non-Arrhenian crossover in glass melt viscosity

The activation energy for glass melt viscosity is a function of temperature, i.e., non-Arrhenian, within a middle range of viscosity values (typically, between 10 2 and 10 10 Pa s) and constant, i.e., Arrhenian, outside this range. At the low-viscosity end, the Arrhenian to non-Arrhenian transition (termed the crossover) falls within the glass processing range: glass melting and fining occur within the Arrhenian range while glass forming occurs within the non-Arrhenian range. By the Adam-Gibbs equation, the configuration entropy is nearly constant at high temperatures (low viscosities), where the glass melt turns into a simple liquid, and decreases with decreasing temperature (increasing viscosity) as the glass is increasingly polymerized. In the present study, the power-law function and hyperbolic tangent function are used to express the configuration entropy as a function of temperature. The viscosity crossover is defined as the point at which onset of structural grouping is causing the configuration entropy to deviate from its high-temperature value. In conclusion, it appears that the limited range of the configuration entropy of the fully depolymerized melt imposes a restriction on the crossover viscosity; for well-defined glass families, such as float glasses or nuclear waste glasses, the crossover point can be defined using a fixed, i.e., composition-independent, viscosity value.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Charge-coupled Device Readout Enabled by the Floating-gate Amplifier

Multiple-Amplifier Sensing (MAS) charge-coupled devices (CCDs) have recently been shown to be promising silicon detectors that meet noise sensitivity requirements for next generation Stage-5 spectroscopic surveys and potentially, future space-based imaging of extremely faint objects on missions such as the Habitable Worlds Observatory. Building upon the capability of the Skipper CCD to achieve deeply sub-electron noise floors, MAS CCDs utilize multiple floating-gate amplifiers along the serial register to increase the readout speed by a factor of the number of output nodes compared to a Skipper CCD. We introduce and experimentally demonstrate on a 16-channel prototype device new readout techniques that exploit the MAS CCD’s floating-gate amplifiers to optimize the correlated double sampling by resetting once per line instead of once per pixel. With this new mode, we find an optimal filter to subtract the noise from the signal during read out. We also take advantage of the MAS CCD’s structure to tune the read time by independently changing integration times for the signal and reference level. Together with optimal weighted averaging of the 16 outputs, these approaches enable us to reach a sub-electron noise of 0.9 e − rms pix −1 at 19 μs pix −1 for a single charge measurement per pixel—simultaneously giving a 30% faster readout time and 10% lower read noise compared to performance previously evaluated without these techniques.

Lin, Kenneth W. (ORCID:0000000189672281)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rigid-flexible coupling multi-body dynamics modeling of a semi-submersible floating offshore wind turbine

A 14-degree-of-freedom (14-DOF) flexible multibody dynamics model is developed and verified for a semi-submersible floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT). The model considers the coupled dynamics of the platform, tower, nacelle, blades, and mooring subjected to external wind and wave loads. The platform is simplified as a rigid body connected to the seabed by the mooring system. The tower and blade are modeled as flexible cantilever beams. The energy method is used to derive the governing equations of motion, where the kinetic energy, potential energy, and work done by external wind-wave forces are all deduced in a global coordinate system. The 5-MW baseline semi-submersible FOWT is used to verify the derived model against the results simulated from FAST developed by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at two scenarios: free decay state and different wind-wave load cases. Results show that the established FOWT model can well reflect the vibration characteristics of FAST model. The application of the model to the control of platform pitch with a tuned mass damper is studied. Furthermore, the simplified model could provide a low-order method for the structural dynamics analysis and advanced vibration control design for the multi-body components of the semi-submersible FOWT in the future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of CFD simulations of the moored DeepCwind offshore wind semisubmersible in irregular waves

This article examines the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to predict the response of a floating wind platform to irregular-wave excitation. This work was conducted as part of the Reproducible CFD Joint Industry Project for Floating Offshore Wind Applications and involved verification across several participants and modeling tools and validation against experiments. The authors pay special attention to the uncertainties in both CFD results and experimental measurements. In this work, we perform detailed comparisons of the incident waves and the motion of a moored structure. The nonlinear, low-frequency resonance motion is of particular interest because it potentially drives the mooring and tower-base loads. The verification and validation study is partially successful in that the CFD simulations capture the low-frequency slow-drift motion well but underpredict the low-frequency pitch resonance. This underprediction can be attributed in part to the CFD incident waves, which showed some discrepancies with the experimental waves, especially around extreme events. The effects of the wave discrepancies are also estimated and investigated using a mid-fidelity OpenFAST model. Overall, the present study increases our confidence in using CFD simulations to predict the global performance of offshore wind platforms in irregular waves and to produce data for the calibration of lower-fidelity models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct Observations of Ion Densities at Functionalized Interfaces to Test Hypotheses Regarding the Origin of Specific Ion Effects

Interactions of anions with protonatable groups were investigated using X-ray fluorescence near total reflection (XFNTR) on floating monolayers at the surface of water. The number of ions attracted to the interfacial region, which XFNTR measures directly, is ion-specific as well as monolayer-specific. Our observation of the distinctly different behaviors of ClO 4 – and ReO 4 – , two ions with the same tetrahedral structure and almost the same sizes and hydration enthalpies, challenges current theories of ion specificity. Our observations are inconsistent with not only the Gouy–Chapman model (as expected) but also size-modified Poisson–Boltzmann theory and the “law of matching water affinity”. Furthermore, we suggest that factors other than ion size and ion–water interactions, including possibly ion–ion interactions and lateral ordering at the interface, must be considered to account for specific ion effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust multi‐loop control of a floating wind turbine

Abstract A principal challenge facing the control of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) is the problem of instability, or “negative damping,” when using blade pitch feedback to control generator speed. This closed‐loop instability can be attributed to non‐minimum phase zeros in the transfer function from blade pitch to generator speed. Standard approaches to improving stability and performance include robust tuning of control gains and introducing multiple feedback loops to respond to platform motion. Combining these approaches is nontrivial because multiple control loops complicate the impact of coupling in the system dynamics. The single‐loop approach to analyzing stability robustness neglects inter‐loop coupling, while a simplistic multi‐loop approach is highly sensitive to dimensional scaling and overestimates the robustness of the single‐loop controller. This work proposes a sensitivity representation that separates some of the natural FOWT dynamic coupling into a parallel feedback loop in the sensitivity function loop to address both of these concerns. The modified robustness measure is used with a simplified linear FOWT model to optimize scheduled multi‐loop control parameters in an automated tuning procedure. This controller is implemented for the 10‐MW Ultraflexible Smart FLoating Offshore Wind Turbine (USFLOWT) and compared against conventional single‐ and multi‐loop controllers tuned using frequency‐domain analysis and high‐fidelity OpenFAST simulations. The multi‐loop robust controller shows the highest overall performance in generator speed regulation and tower load reduction, though consideration of power quality, actuator usage, and other structural loading leads to additional trade‐offs.

Stockhouse, David↗
DOE OSTI2023

Definition of the Stiesdal Offshore TetraSpar Floating Wind System for OC6 Phase IV

The Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation, and unCertainty (OC6) is an international project focused on verifying and validating modeling tools used in the analysis of floating offshore wind systems. The fourth phase of the project aims to assess the ability of the tools to model a novel floating wind design. The TetraSpar was designed by Stiesdal Offshore Technologies and was selected as the subject platform for the project. The platform is a unique design that features spar-like stability with a very low center of gravity, but does not require rare deep-water ports. This combination is achieved with a system made of two separate steel structures, a hull at the water's surface that supports the wind turbine tower, and a keel that is suspended below the main body. This lower keel has a very high density and drives the total platform's low center of gravity. The TetraSpar, with hull and keel, spar-type stability, and relatively slender components, is unique compared to platforms studied in earlier phases of OC3-OC6 projects, and it offers an opportunity to evaluate the applicability of modeling tools to a novel design, especially unique hydrodynamics and compliant cables. Scaled model tests of the TetraSpar design were performed in 2018-2019 by the University of Maine. The data collected in the model tests provides a detailed description of the response of the platform in various controlled and relatively well understood conditions. Comparison with this data provides a good opportunity for validation of numerical models. The OC6 Phase IV work focuses on the specific parameters used in these scaled model tests. Descriptions of the platform and the test campaign in this document are based on the report written by Allen and Fowler of the University of Maine in 2019.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploiting Saturation Regimes and Surface Effects to Tune Composite Design: Single Platelet Nanocomposites of Peptoid Nanosheets and CaCO 3

Mineral-polymer composites found in nature exhibit exceptional structural properties essential to their function, and transferring these attributes to the synthetic design of functional materials holds promise across various sectors. Biomimetic fabrication of nanocomposites introduces new pathways for advanced material design and explores biomineralization strategies. This study presents a novel approach for producing single platelet nanocomposites composed of CaCO 3 and biomimetic peptoid (N-substituted glycines) polymers, akin to the bricks found in the brick-and-mortar structure of nacre, the inner layer of certain mollusc shells. The significant aspect of the proposed strategy is the use of organic peptoid nanosheets as the scaffolds for brick formation, along with their controlled mineralization in solution. Here, we employ the B28 peptoid nanosheet as a scaffold, which readily forms free-floating zwitterionic bilayers in aqueous solution. The peptoid nanosheets were mineralized under consistent initial conditions (σ calcite = 1.2, pH 9.00), with variations in mixing conditions and supersaturation profiles over time aimed at controlling the final product. Nanosheets were mineralized in both feedback control experiments, where supersaturation was continuously replenished by titrant addition and in batch experiments without a feedback loop. Complete coverage of the nanosheet surface by amorphous calcium carbonate was achieved under specific conditions with feedback control mineralization, whereas vaterite was the primary CaCO 3 phase observed after batch experiments. Thermodynamic calculations suggest that time-dependent supersaturation profiles as well as the spatial distribution of supersaturation are effective controls for tuning the mineralization extent and product. We anticipate that the control strategies outlined in this work can serve as a foundation for the advanced and scalable fabrication of nanocomposites as building blocks for nacre-mimetic and functional materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational capacity in hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation applied to simulate the dynamic response of floating offshore wind turbines

Real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) mitigates similitude distortions in model-scale tests of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) by coupling physical experiments with numerical models in real time. The coupling requires faster-than-real-time numerical computations to satisfy temporal similitude with the physical experiment, presenting a bottleneck for using more complex numerical models in RTHS. This paper presents a hydrodynamic-RTHS (hydro-RTHS) framework for FOWTs that simulates the hydrodynamics physically and the aerodynamics numerically with sensor feedback from the physical testing. The framework adapts the three-loop hardware architecture to leverage greater computational resources and mitigate strict temporal requirements, enabling more computationally demanding numerical analyses in hydro-RTHS. The three-loop hardware architecture integrates multiple machines, each dedicated to either numerical analysis or RTHS controls, with a rate-transition algorithm to synchronize the tasks executed across the different machine processors. Virtual and physical tests verified and validated the hydro-RTHS framework, respectively. The ”virtual” tests, which approximates the physical domain numerically, verified the RTHS framework with respect to a numerical full-scale complete FOWT model simulated in the open-source software, OpenFAST. The virtual tests were able to maintain comparable control signals while enabling greater computational resources for the numerical calculations. Real-world physical tests demonstrated that the hydro-RTHS framework computes aerodynamic forces similar to the complete OpenFAST model, validating the hydro-RTHS framework using the three-loop hardware architecture. Findings show that the hydro-RTHS framework with the three-loop hardware architecture is computationally efficient, with reserve capacity to simulate more complex problems due to the customized software, hardware, and rate-transition algorithm.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Additional Data Focused on Phase 1 Geared Toward Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) validation

A new validation campaign was developed within the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) to better understand the complex interactions between components of a floating wind system (e.g., columns, pontoons, etc.) in a more generic sense, and to validate modeling approaches for a variety of floating designs. A set of cylinders based on the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continuation (OC4)-DeepCwind semidesign were tested under wave loading, both individually and in different combinations (including the attachment of heave plates of different sizes). The cylinders were held rigid, and pressure sensors were used to measure the distributed loading on the structures, while load cells measured the total integrated hydrodynamic loads.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Google/Makani Energy Kite Modeling (CRADA CRD-18-00569 Final Report)

In support of Makani’s energy kite development program, Makani engaged with NREL to develop, verify, and document a multiphysics engineering model of a megawatt-scale tethered energy kite (named KiteFAST). After the original development of KiteFAST was completed, Makani further engaged NREL to develop a software enhancement of KiteFAST to enable the dynamics modeling of an energy kite tethered to a floating offshore platform (named KiteFAST-OS). Before this project, the capability to model the aero-hydro-servo-elastic dynamics of an airborne wind energy (AWE) system with electricity generation on the flying device (fly gen) and crosswind flight operation did not exist. Such physics-based modeling capability is needed for loads analysis, structural design, and certification of energy kites. Throughout the project, an exclusive license kept KiteFAST and KiteFAST-OS available only to Makani, NREL, and its counterparts. With the ending of Makani, the KiteFAST and KiteFAST-OS software were merged into a single code base (named KiteFAST), the exclusive license was terminated, and the source code, documentation, and example models were released publicly.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fluid-Kinetic Coupling: Advanced Discretizations for Simulations on Emerging Heterogeneous Architectures (LDRD FY20-0643)

Plasma physics simulations are vital for a host of Sandia mission concerns, for fundamental science, and for clean energy in the form of fusion power. Sandia's most mature plasma physics simulation capabilities come in the form of particle-in-cell (PIC) models and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models. MHD models for a plasma work well in denser plasma regimes when there is enough material that the plasma approximates a fluid. PIC models, on the other hand, work well in lower-density regimes, in which there is not too much to simulate; error in PIC scales as the square root of the number of particles, making high-accuracy simulations expensive. Real-world applications, however, almost always involve a transition region between the high-density regimes where MHD is appropriate, and the low-density regimes for PIC. In such a transition region, a direct discretization of Vlasov is appropriate. Such discretizations come with their own computational costs, however; the phase-space mesh for Vlasov can involve up to six dimensions (seven if time is included), and to apply appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions in velocity space requires meshing a substantial padding region to ensure that the distribution remains sufficiently close to zero at the velocity boundaries. Moreover, for collisional plasmas, the right-hand side of the Vlasov equation is a collision operator, which is non-local in velocity space, and which may dominate the cost of the Vlasov solver. The present LDRD project endeavors to develop modern, foundational tools for the development of continuum-kinetic Vlasov solvers, using the discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) methodology, for discretization of Vlasov, and machine-learning (ML) models to enable efficient evaluation of collision operators. DPG affords several key advantages. First, it has a built-in, robust error indicator, allowing us to adapt the mesh in a very natural way, enabling a coarse velocity-space mesh near the homogeneous boundaries, and a fine mesh where the solution has fine features. Second, it is an inherently high-order, high-intensity method, requiring extra local computations to determine so-called optimal test functions, which makes it particularly suited to modern hardware in which floating-point throughput is increasing at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. Finally, DPG is a residual-minimizing method, which enables high-accuracy computation: in typical cases, the method delivers something very close to the $L^2$ projection of the exact solution. Meanwhile, the ML-based collision model we adopt affords a cost structure that scales as the square root of a standard direct evaluation. Moreover, we design our model to conserve mass, momentum, and energy by construction, and our approach to training is highly flexible, in that it can incorporate not only synthetic data from direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) codes, but also experimental data. We have developed two DPG formulations for Vlasov-Poisson: a time-marching, backward-Euler discretization and a space-time discretization. We have conducted a number of numerical experiments to verify the approach in a 1D1V setting. In this report, we detail these formulations and experiments. We also summarize some new theoretical results developed as part of this project (published as papers previously): some new analysis of DPG for the convection-reaction problem (of which the Vlasov equation is an instance), a new exponential integrator for DPG, and some numerical exploration of various DPG-based time-marching approaches to the heat equation. As part of this work, we have contributed extensively to the Camellia open-source library; we also describe the new capabilities and their usage. We have also developed a well-documented methodology for single-species collision operators, which we applied to argon and demonstrated with numerical experiments. We summarize those results here, as well as describing at a high level a design extending the methodology to multi-species operators. We have released a new open-source library, MLC, under a BSD license; we include a summary of its capabilities as well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fatigue performance of the Deeply Embedded Ring Anchor

Existing anchor solutions are limited in their applicability to the floating offshore wind industry, which demands prolonged load endurance in extreme weather conditions and varied seabed soils. This limitation restricts project feasibility and increases costs. In order to address these challenges, the Deeply Embedded Ring Anchor (DERA) is proposed to achieve substantial reductions in anchor costs through efficiency enhancements. Ensuring the long-term safety and reliability of the DERA, especially considering a minimum operational period of 25 years, necessitates a comprehensive understanding of fatigue damage. Induced by repetitive loading below material yield strength, fatigue poses a significant threat to structures exposed to waves and currents. Anchors, vital for station keeping, are susceptible to fatigue damage, particularly in the padeye area. This paper conducts a fatigue analysis, focusing on factors such as the wall thickness of the ring anchor, inner stiffeners, and stiffener thickness, to evaluate the performance of DERA in this context. The results showed that the stiffener significantly affects the elongation of the total life of the anchor. In conclusion, this paper focuses on advancing innovations like DERA, enabling the efficient utilization of offshore wind resources, and addressing safety concerns through meticulous fatigue analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simplified Two-Stage Model Predictive Control for a Hybrid Multilevel Converter With Floating H-Bridge

This paper proposes a simplified two-stage model predictive control (ST-MPC) for a hybrid multilevel converter, which is an active-neutral-point-clamped converter with floating H-bridge (ANPC-H). The objective of the first stage is to select the voltage vector that has the optimal current tracking performance by using a novel geometrical positioning approach in the complex plane. The second stage selects the best switching state among all the available switching states that belong to the same voltage vector obtained in the first stage, to balance dc capacitor voltages and reduce the common mode voltage. The proposed ST-MPC can dramatically reduce the computational burden and ensure the best current tracking by the two-stage structure, such that the execution time is much shorter compared with the conventional MPC. In addition, the geometrical positioning approach in the first stage is generic and can be applicable for any multilevel converters with N-level output; thus, this ST-MPC can be applied for both sevenand nine-level operation of the hybrid ANPC-H converter under different dc voltage ratios. Both simulation results and experimental results obtained on a silicon carbide hybrid ANPC-H converter prototype validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed ST-MPC strategy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads

Abstract. Floating wind turbines must withstand a unique and challenging set of loads from the wind and ocean environment. To de-risk development, accurate predictions of these loads are necessary. Uncertainty in modeling predictions leads to larger required safety factors, increasing project costs and the levelized cost of energy. Complex aero-hydro-elastic modeling tools use many input parameters to represent the wind, waves, current, aerodynamic loads, hydrodynamic loads, and structural properties. It is helpful to understand which of these parameters ultimately drives a design. In this work, an ultimate and fatigue-proxy load sensitivity analysis was performed with 35 different input parameters, using an elementary effects approach to identify the most influential parameters for a case study involving the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible during normal operation. The importance of each parameter was evaluated using 14 response quantities of interest across three operational wind speed conditions. The study concludes that turbulent wind velocity standard deviation is the parameter with the strongest sensitivity; this value is important not just for turbine loads, but also for the global system response. The system center of mass in the wind direction is found to have the highest impact on the system rotation and tower loads. The current velocity is found to be the most dominating parameter for the system global motion and consequently the mooring loads. All tested wind turbulence parameters in addition to the standard deviation are also found to be influential. Wave characteristics are influential for some fatigue-proxy loading but do not significantly impact the extreme ultimate loads in these operational load cases. The required number of random seeds for stochastic environmental conditions is considered to ensure that the sensitivities are due to the input parameters and not due to the seed. The required number of analysis points in the parameter space is identified so that the conclusions represent a global sensitivity. The results are specific to the platform, turbine, and choice of parameter ranges, but the demonstrated approach can be applied widely to guide focus in parameter uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Augmented Adam-Gibbs model for glass melt viscosity and configuration entropy as functions of temperature and composition

As the temperature of glass melt increases, its structure approaches the state of a simple liquid while the configuration entropy approaches a maximum value. We describe this gradual change using a power law function of inverse temperature. The Adam-Gibbs model for glass viscosity as a function of temperature and glass composition augmented in this way is greatly simplified when applied to common glass families occupying moderate composition regions, such as float glass or nuclear waste glasses, on which properties can be approximated as linear functions of composition. The parsimonious model thus obtained is preferable for use in optimizing glass formulation and mathematical modeling of glass melting and forming. For multicomponent glasses with N viscosity-affecting components, the augmented Adam-Gibbs model requires 2N + 3 adjustable parameters. The model efficacy is demonstrated by fitting the model to a viscosity-temperature-composition dataset for low-activity nuclear waste glasses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic assessment of electricity market potential for co-located hydro-floating PV systems

Abstract—Harnessing renewable energy from diverse sources is paramount for sustainable power systems. Recently, co-located floating PV (FPV) systems present an intriguing prospect in this context. These hybrid systems, blending hydro and solar power, may offer a more consistent electricity output and potential economic advantages. Yet, assessing their actual potential requires a comprehensive techno-economic assessment. In addition, probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in electricity market because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. To this end, this paper embarks on a journey to elucidate the electricity market potential of co-located hydro-FPV systems in a probabilistic fashion to investigate the technological merits and economic viability of co-located hydro-FPV under different market structures. Our preliminary findings suggest that LCOE and payback metrics are sensitive not only to different markets but also to different solar incentives. Concurrently, we also observe that the payback period is generally faster with a production tax credit (PTC) than an investment tax credit (ITC). This assessment serves as a cornerstone for understanding the future prospects of co-located hydro-FPV systems in modern electricity markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗