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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Calibrated soil moisture data from Manaus, Brazil, August 2018 - December 2019

This dataset contains calibrated soil moisture and rainfall data for ecohydrological studies in the Central Amazon (2.6099 ºS, 60.2093 ºW) taken at 30-min intervals. Soil moisture data was collected at depths of 0.025-, 0.05-, 0.15-, 0.30-, 0.50-,0.8-, 1.6-, 2.4-, 3.2-, 4.8-, 6.4-, 8.8-, and 14.20 m. Inconsistent data was removed during the QA/QC process. Further information including data collection methods are available in the associated publication, Negron-Juarez et al. 2020. Measurement and characterization of soil moisture dynamics in a Central Amazonian tropical forest (to be submitted).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest

Abstract Crown damage can account for over 23% of canopy biomass turnover in tropical forests and is a strong predictor of tree mortality; yet, it is not typically represented in vegetation models. We incorporate crown damage into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to evaluate how lags between damage and tree recovery or death alter demographic rates and patterns of carbon turnover. We represent crown damage as a reduction in a tree's crown area and leaf and branch biomass, and allow associated variation in the ratio of aboveground to belowground plant tissue. We compare simulations with crown damage to simulations with equivalent instant increases in mortality and benchmark results against data from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. In FATES, crown damage causes decreases in growth rates that match observations from BCI. Crown damage leads to increases in carbon starvation mortality in FATES, but only in configurations with high root respiration and decreases in carbon storage following damage. Crown damage also alters competitive dynamics, as plant functional types that can recover from crown damage outcompete those that cannot. This is a first exploration of the trade‐off between the additional complexity of the novel crown damage module and improved predictive capabilities. At BCI, a tropical forest that does not experience high levels of disturbance, both the crown damage simulations and simulations with equivalent increases in mortality does a reasonable job of capturing observations. The crown damage module provides functionality for exploring dynamics in forests with more extreme disturbances such as cyclones and for capturing the synergistic effects of disturbances that overlap in space and time.

Needham, Jessica F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Patchy burn severity explains heterogeneous soil viral and prokaryotic responses to fire in a mixed conifer forest

ABSTRACT Effects of fire on soil viruses and virus–host dynamics are largely unexplored, despite known microbial contributions to biogeochemical processes and ecosystem recovery. Here, we assessed how viral and prokaryotic communities responded to a prescribed burn in a mixed conifer forest. We sequenced 91 viral-size fraction metagenomes (viromes) and 115 16S rRNA gene amplicon libraries from 120 samples: four samples at five timepoints (two before fire and three after fire) at six sites (four treatment, two control). We hypothesized that compositional differences would be most significant between burned and unburned soils, but instead, plot location best distinguished viral communities, more than treatment (burned or not), depth (0–3 or 3–6 cm), or timepoint. For both viruses and prokaryotes, some burned communities resembled unburned controls, while others were significantly different, revealing heterogeneous responses to fire. These patterns were explained by burn severity, here defined by soil chemistry. Viral but not prokaryotic richness decreased significantly with burn severity, and low viromic DNA yields indicated substantial loss of viral biomass at higher severity. The relative abundances of Firmicutes, Actinobacteriota, and the viruses predicted to infect them increased significantly with burn severity, suggesting survival and viral infection of these fire-responsive and potentially spore-forming taxa. The degree of burn severity experienced by each patch of soil, rather than burn status alone, differed over mere meters in the same fire. Therefore, our analyses highlight the importance of high-resolution, paired biogeochemical data to explain soil community responses to fire. IMPORTANCE The impact of fire on the soil microbiome, particularly on understudied soil viral communities, warrants investigation, given known microbial contributions to biogeochemical processes and ecosystem recovery. Here, we collected 120 soil samples before and after a prescribed burn in a mixed conifer forest to assess the impacts of this disturbance on soil viral and prokaryotic communities. We show that simple categorical comparisons of burned and unburned areas were insufficient to reveal the underlying community response patterns. The patchy nature of the fire (indicated by soil chemistry data) led to significant changes in viral and prokaryotic community composition in areas of high burn severity, while communities that experienced lower burn severity were indistinguishable from those in unburned controls. Our results highlight the importance of considering highly resolved burn severity and biogeochemical measurements, even in nearby soils after the same fire, in order to understand soil microbial responses to prescribed burns.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Coastal forests are increasingly experiencing mortality due to inundation by fresh- and seawater, leading to their replacement by marshes. These shifts alter vegetation composition, biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage, and hydrology. Using a hydraulically enabled ecosystem demography model (FATES-Hydro), we conducted numerical experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind inundation-driven forest loss and the ecosystem-scale consequences of forest-to-marsh transitions. We compared mortality processes and their effects across broadleaf and conifer trees at two coastal sites – Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (saline). Our simulations show that hydraulic failure, driven by root loss under prolonged flooding, is the primary mortality mechanism across both tree types and sites. Forest replacement by marsh reduced ecosystem-scale leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), transpiration, and deep soil water uptake in conifer forests, while broadleaf forests experienced smaller changes due to lower initial LAI and greater marsh compensation. Marsh invasion occurred following canopy thinning driven by tree mortality. These findings suggest that, under similar root loss, hydraulic failure dominates coastal tree mortality regardless of species or water type, with denser forests experiencing stronger ecosystem impacts. Our study identifies key mortality mechanisms and offers testable hypotheses for future empirical studies on coastal vegetation change.

Ding, Junyan [Occidental College, Los Angeles, CA ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Will Increase Biomass Proportion of Global Forest Carbon Stocks Under an SSP5–8.5 Climate Trajectory

Abstract A large amount of carbon is stored in global forests. However, the fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon (SOC) varies among forest types, and potential changes over the 21st century are uncertain. Here, we used extensive data derived from inventories and remote sensing and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine the current and 21st century dynamics in the proportion of biomass and SOC across global forests. We found that precipitation, elevation, soil, and wildfire were the primary controls of these differences in carbon pools. Under the SSP5–8.5 climate scenario, CMIP6 models project that the ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase across the 21st century, with the largest increases in boreal forests (95 ± 37%) compared to moist tropical forests (16 ± 15%). Changes in forest carbon pools resulting in greater biomass fraction will affect disturbance, and ecosystem carbon and energy balances, all of which interact with the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential effects of redox conditions on the decomposition of litter and soil organic matter

Soil redox conditions exert substantial influence on biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems. Humid tropical forests are often characterized by fluctuating redox dynamics, yet how redox fluctuations affect patterns in soil versus litter decomposition and associated CO2 fluxes are not well understood in these ecosystems. We used a 13C-labeled litter addition to explicitly follow the decomposition of litter-derived vs. native soil-derived organic matter in response to four different soil redox regimes—static oxic or anoxic, and two oscillating treatments—in soil from the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We coupled this incubation experiment with high-resolution mass spectrometry analysis to characterize the preferential decomposition of specific classes of organic molecules. CO2 production from litter and soil organic matter (SOM) showed distinctly different responses to redox manipulation. The cumulative production of SOM-derived CO2 was positively correlated with the length of soil exposure to an oxic headspace (r = 0.89, n = 20), whereas cumulative 13C-litter-derived CO2 production was not linked to oxygen availability. The CO2 production rate from litter was highest under static anoxic conditions in the first half of the incubation period, and later dropped to the lowest among all redox treatments. In the consistently anoxic soils, we observed the depletion of more oxidized water-extractable organic matter (especially amino sugars, carbohydrates, and proteins) over time, suggesting that under anaerobic conditions, microbes preferentially used more oxidized litter-derived compounds during the early stages of decomposition. Results from kinetic modeling showed that more frequent anoxic exposure limited the decomposition of a slow-cycling C pool, but not a fast-cycling pool. Overall, our results demonstrate that substrate source—freshly added litter vs. native organic matter—plays an important role in the redox sensitivity of organic matter decomposition. In soil environments that regularly experience redox fluctuations, anaerobic heterotrophs can be surprisingly effective in degrading fresh plant litter.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variation in forest root image annotation by experts, novices, and AI

Abstract Background The manual study of root dynamics using images requires huge investments of time and resources and is prone to previously poorly quantified annotator bias. Artificial intelligence (AI) image-processing tools have been successful in overcoming limitations of manual annotation in homogeneous soils, but their efficiency and accuracy is yet to be widely tested on less homogenous, non-agricultural soil profiles, e.g., that of forests, from which data on root dynamics are key to understanding the carbon cycle. Here, we quantify variance in root length measured by human annotators with varying experience levels. We evaluate the application of a convolutional neural network (CNN) model, trained on a software accessible to researchers without a machine learning background, on a heterogeneous minirhizotron image dataset taken in a multispecies, mature, deciduous temperate forest. Results Less experienced annotators consistently identified more root length than experienced annotators. Root length annotation also varied between experienced annotators. The CNN root length results were neither precise nor accurate, taking ~ 10% of the time but significantly overestimating root length compared to expert manual annotation ( p = 0.01). The CNN net root length change results were closer to manual ( p = 0.08) but there remained substantial variation. Conclusions Manual root length annotation is contingent on the individual annotator. The only accessible CNN model cannot yet produce root data of sufficient accuracy and precision for ecological applications when applied to a complex, heterogeneous forest image dataset. A continuing evaluation and development of accessible CNNs for natural ecosystems is required.

Handy, Grace↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vegetation browning: global drivers, impacts, and feedbacks

As global climate conditions continue to change, disturbance regimes and environmental drivers will continue to shift, impacting global vegetation dynamics. Following a period of vegetation greening, there has been a progressive increase in remotely sensed vegetation browning globally. Further, given the many societal benefits that forests provide, it is critical that we understand vegetation dynamic alterations. Here, we review associative drivers, impacts, and feedbacks, revealing the complexity of browning. Concomitant increases in browning include the weakening of ecosystem services and functions and alterations to vegetation structure and species composition as well as the development of potential positive climate change feedbacks. Also discussed are the current challenges in browning detection and understanding associated impacts and feedbacks. Finally, we outline recommended strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drought–induced increase in tree mortality and corresponding decrease in the carbon sink capacity of Canada's boreal forests from 1970 to 2020

Canada's boreal forests, which occupy approximately 30% of boreal forests world wide, play an important role in the global carbon budget. However, there is lit tle quantitative information available regarding the spatiotemporal changes in the drought-induced tree mortality of Canada's boreal forests overall and their associ ated impacts on biomass carbon dynamics. Here, we develop spatiotemporally ex plicit estimates of drought-induced tree mortality and corresponding biomass carbon sink capacity changes in Canada's boreal forests from 1970 to 2020. We show that the average annual tree mortality rate is approximately 2.7%. Approximately 43% of Canada's boreal forests have experienced significantly increasing tree mortality trends (71% of which are located in the western region of the country), and these trends have accelerated since 2002. This increase in tree mortality has resulted in sig nificant biomass carbon losses at an approximate rate of 1.51±0.29 MgC ha -1 year -1 (95% confidence interval) with an approximate total loss of 0.46±0.09 PgC year -1 (95% confidence interval). Under the drought condition increases predicted for this century, the capacity of Canada's boreal forests to act as a carbon sink will be further reduced, potentially leading to a significant positive climate feedback effect

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Plant roots stimulate the decomposition of complex, but not simple, soil carbon

Roots release carbon into soil and can alleviate energy limitation of microbial organic matter decomposition. We know little about the effects of roots on microbial decomposition of different organic matter substrates, despite the importance for soil carbon stocks and turnover. Through implementing root-microbe interactions, the Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model was previously shown to represent dynamics of total soil carbon in temperate forest field experiments. However, the model permits alternative hypotheses concerning microbial-substrate affinity. We investigated how root inputs affect decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) with variable decomposability. We simulated SOC stocks in CORPSE and compared microbial degradation of two substrates types with varying root-microbe interactions under two alternative hypotheses that varied in microbial-substrate affinity. We compared our modeled hypotheses to a forest field experiment where we quantified decomposition of isotopically-labeled starch and leaf tissues in soils with manipulated root access to microbes. Here, we tested the hypothesis that decomposition of leaves would be more sensitive to root inputs than decomposition of starch, corresponding to the alternative model hypothesis. In the field study, leaf decomposition increased with root density while starch decomposition was unchanged by root density. Microbial biomass and enzyme activity consistently increased with root inputs in CORPSE and the field study. Our field experiment supported the CORPSE simulations with high microbial-substrate affinity. Roots stimulated microbial growth and enzyme production, which increased degradation of more complex substrates such as leaf tissues. Substrates that were easily decomposed, such as starch, may already be degrading at a maximum rate in the absence of rhizosphere influence because their decomposition rate was unchanged by root inputs. We found that the degree to which roots stimulate microbial decomposition depends on the substrate being decomposed, and that root-microbe interactions influenced SOC stocks in both our model and field experiment. Environmental changes that alter root-microbe interactions could, therefore, alter soil C stocks and biogeochemical cycling, and models of these interactions should incorporate differential influence of rhizosphere inputs on different substrates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental drivers of spatial variation in tropical forest canopy height: Insights from NASA’s GEDI spaceborne LiDAR

Forest canopy height is a fundamental ecosystem property—influencing patterns of forest carbon storage and forest ecosystem responses to climate variability and change. Previous studies have analyzed environmental drivers influencing spatial variation in canopy height at landscape-to-regional scales; however, far less is known about the environmental determinants underlying regional and global scale variation in forest canopy height. Using the canopy height metrics products from Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), a space-borne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) instrument specifically designed to characterize forest structure, we analyze the environmental correlates of spatial variation of global tropical forest canopy height. Our study demonstrates that climate, topography, and soil properties account for 75% of the variation in tropical forest canopy height. Elevation, dry season length, and solar radiation are the most important drivers in determining canopy height both locally and regionally. These results emphasize the vulnerability of tropical forest structure to ongoing changes in the earth’s climate and provide a valuable empirical baseline for tropical forest management.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of biogenic emissions from boreal forests on aerosol–cloud interactions

Boreal forest acts as a carbon sink and contributes to the formation of secondary organic aerosols via emission of aerosol precursor compounds. However, these influences on the climate system are poorly quantified. Here we show direct observational evidence that aerosol emissions from the boreal forest biosphere influence warm cloud microphysics and cloud-aerosol interactions in a scale-dependent and highly dynamic manner. Analyses of in situ and ground-based remote-sensing observations from the SMEAR II station in Finland, conducted over eight months in 2014, reveal substantial increases in aerosol load over the forest one to three days after aerosol-poor marine air enters the forest environment. We find that these changes are consistent with secondary organic aerosol formation and, together with water-vapour emissions from evapotranspiration, are associated with changes in the radiative properties of warm, low-level clouds. Here, the feedbacks between boreal forest emissions and aerosol-cloud interactions and the highly dynamic nature of these interactions in air transported over the forest over timescales of several days suggest boreal forests have the potential to mitigate climate change on a continental scale. Our findings suggest that even small changes in aerosol precursor emissions, whether due to changing climatic or anthropogenic factors, may substantially modify the radiative properties of clouds in moderately polluted environments. Emissions from the boreal forest biosphere can substantially increase aerosol load above the forest and influence the radiative properties of clouds, according to analysis of observations from a monitoring station in Finland.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the topographic influence on aboveground biomass using a coupled model of hillslope hydrology and ecosystem dynamics

Abstract. Topographic heterogeneity and lateral subsurface flow at the hillslope scale of ≤1 km may have outsized impacts on tropical forest through their impacts on water available to plants under water-stressed conditions. However, vegetation dynamics and finer-scale hydrologic processes are not concurrently represented in Earth system models. In this study, we integrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) that includes the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), with a three-dimensional hydrology model (ParFlow) to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and subsurface flow and perform numerical experiments to understand how hillslope-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Our simulations show that groundwater table depth (WTD) can play a large role in governing aboveground biomass (AGB) when drought-induced tree mortality is triggered by hydraulic failure. Analyzing the simulations using random forest (RF) models, we find that the domain-wide simulated AGB and WTD can be well predicted by static topographic attributes, including surface elevation, slope, and convexity, and adding soil moisture or groundwater table depth as predictors further improves the RF models. Different model representations of mortality due to hydraulic failure can change the dominant topographic driver for the simulated AGB. Contrary to the simulations, the observed AGB in the well-drained 50 ha forest census plot within BCI cannot be well predicted by the RF models using topographic attributes and observed soil moisture as predictors, suggesting other factors such as nutrient status may have a larger influence on the observed AGB. The new coupled model may be useful for understanding the diverse impact of local heterogeneity by isolating the water availability and nutrient availability from the other external and internal factors in ecosystem modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree–ring records of ten globally distributed forests

Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3-month seasonal windows), with concave-down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

generalized least squares (GLS)↗
DOE OSTI2021

A New Field Instrument for Leaf Volatiles Reveals an Unexpected Vertical Profile of Isoprenoid Emission Capacities in a Tropical Forest

Both plant physiology and atmospheric chemistry are substantially altered by the emission of volatile isoprenoids (VI), such as isoprene and monoterpenes, from plant leaves. Yet, since gaining scientific attention in the 1950’s, empirical research on leaf VI has been largely confined to laboratory experiments and atmospheric observations. Here, we introduce a new field instrument designed to bridge the scales from leaf to atmosphere, by enabling precision VI detection in real time from plants in their natural ecological setting. With a field campaign in the Brazilian Amazon, we reveal an unexpected distribution of leaf emission capacities (EC) across the vertical axis of the forest canopy, with EC peaking in the mid-canopy instead of the sun-exposed canopy surface, and moderately high emissions occurring in understory specialist species. Compared to the simple interpretation that VI protect leaves from heat stress at the hot canopy surface, our results encourage a more nuanced view of the adaptive role of VI in plants. We infer that forest emissions to the atmosphere depend on the dynamic microenvironments imposed by canopy structure, and not simply on canopy surface conditions. We provide a new emissions inventory from 52 tropical tree species, revealing moderate consistency in EC within taxonomic groups. We highlight priorities in leaf volatiles research that require field-portable detection systems. Our self-contained, portable instrument provides real-time detection and live measurement feedback with precision and detection limits better than 0.5 nmol VI m -2 leaf s -1 . We call the instrument ‘PORCO’ based on the gas detection method: photoionization of organic compounds. We provide a thorough validation of PORCO and demonstrate its capacity to detect ecologically driven variation in leaf emission rates and thus accelerate a nascent field of science: the ecology and ecophysiology of plant volatiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Here, our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗