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DOE OSTI2025

Inferring fracture dilation and shear slip from surface deformation utilising trained surrogate models

An important task in energy and CO 2 storage (sequestration) in the subsurface is to verify that the surrounding fractures and faults are not activated, acting as leakage pathways. This is achievable through effective and efficient Measurement, Monitoring and Verification (MMV) plans. In this work, two surrogate models are trained to captures dilation (opening) and shear deformation of fractures, and the associated surface deformation. The trained surrogate model, based on conditional Generative-Adversarial Networks (cGAN) receives fracture apertures from dilational fractures together with fracture slips from shear fractures and predicts the combined surface deformation. An inversion algorithm based on Bayesian framework is proposed to identify the geometry of both types of fractures, as well as volume of dilational fractures and deformation moment induced by shear fractures, all from the measured surface deformation data. The inversion algorithm utilises the Differential Evolution (DE) optimisation technique that has the superior performance in finding the global minimum of cost function. The proposed surrogate-assisted inversion successfully inferred the unknown dip, dip direction and the volume of the dilational fractures as well as the induced deformation moment in shear fractures. The model was further tested for the inversion of a field hydraulic fracturing tilt dataset applying different scenarios with varying unknowns to show the model's performance, as well as incorporating shear deformation for better match with the observed data.

Dilation and shear↗

DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization of Hydraulic Fracture Test Site-2 (HFTS-2), Delaware Basin

Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site-2 (HFTS-2) is a field-based research experiment performed in the Wolfcamp Formation of the Permian (Delaware) Basin. This paper focuses on integration, advanced geological characterization, and 3D subsurface modeling of the comprehensive HFTS-2 dataset. The study showcases a multidisciplinary reservoir characterization approach that incorporates geology, petrophysics, geochemistry, geomechanics, microseismic, and subsurface engineering analysis. Subsurface characterization of organic-rich mudstone formations requires understanding complex hydraulic fracture network growth in relation to inherent lithology, geomechanical properties, and interaction with pre-existing natural fractures. This paper presents a characterization workflow incorporating pre- and post-stimulation subsurface data, unique to the HFTS-2 dataset. The study integrated: (1) rock properties from logs, cores, and thin sections; (2) natural and hydraulic fracture descriptions from cores and image logs; (3) local and regional stresses; (4) geomechanics; (5) microseismic; (6) fiber optic (FO) and bottomhole pressure gauge (BHPG) response; and (7) produced fluids analysis. During a stimulation treatment, creation of the stimulated rock volume (SRV) is influenced by several subsurface factors. Key contributing factors include structural context, stress conditions, lithology, facies architecture, pre-existing natural fractures, and geomechanical properties. The HFTS-2 subsurface data integration indicates that the SRV is comprised of a complex juxtaposition of hydraulic fracture swarms, as evidenced by image logs analysis, core description, and microseismic monitoring. The HFTS-2 microseismic event density was used to generate 3D heat maps that serve as a representative SRV footprint, corroborated by secondary datasets. These maps were further integrated with petrophysical and geomechanical characteristics, as well as responses from FO and BHPG, to estimate the lateral and vertical dimensions of the effective fractures. The geological characterization for the HFTS-2 dataset combined with 3D modeling for petrophysical and geomechanical properties provides a strong foundation for subsurface simulation and optimization studies. Downloaded from http://onepetro.org/URTECONF/proceedings-pdf/21URTC/1-21URTC/D011S005R001/2477501/urtec-2021-5243-ms.pdf/1 by Carol Worster on 28 February 2022 URTeC 5243 The workflow improved our understanding of HFTS-2 hydraulic fracture propagation and characteristics in relation to offset pressure depletion and interaction with pre-existing natural fractures. Analysis showed that fracture geometry varies by stage and by well, and a complex fracture network is generated with varying fracture density. The multidisciplinary workflow presented herein for integration and characterization serves as a foundation to evaluate completion efficiency and estimate areal and vertical stimulation and depletion extent for the project. Furthermore, the workflow and learnings can also be transferred to other unconventional plays.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atomic force microscopy monitoring of subcritical slow crack growth in soda lime silicate glass

Prediction of brittle fracture in silicate glasses requires a fundamental understanding of slow crack growth rates, far below the critical stress intensity (K IC ) of the material. Here, in this study, atomic force microscopy (AFM) was used to characterize slow crack propagation in soda lime silicate glasses. Using large-sample AFM systems with specialized tips and scanners, fractures less than 20 nm wide were measured as a function of relative humidity (RH). The results were found to be sensitive to the type of AFM tip used and to the dryness of the surface. Continuous scanning and image capture over several days allowed the determination of the crack tip velocity. The dependance of crack tip velocity on RH was measured by enclosing the sample and AFM head in a humidity-controlled chamber. The crack tip velocity was measured as low 4.0×10 -12 m/s at 15 % RH and as high as 3.7×10 -10 m/s at 40 % RH. Overall crack growth was smooth during the AFM scan. Additionally, recession of the crack tip was noted as the sample dried, indicating crack tip closure may be occurring. Further studies on alternative compositions will provide details on subcritical fracture processes in a range of different environmental conditions.

Atomic force microscopy↗

NASA NTRS1981

Acoustic emission monitoring of polymer composite materials

The techniques of acoustic emission monitoring of polymer composite materials is described. It is highly sensitive, quasi-nondestructive testing method that indicates the origin and behavior of flaws in such materials when submitted to different load exposures. With the use of sophisticated signal analysis methods it is possible the distinguish between different types of failure mechanisms, such as fiber fracture delamination or fiber pull-out. Imperfections can be detected while monitoring complex composite structures by acoustic emission measurements.

Bardenheier, R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

X ray attenuation measurements for high-temperature materials characterization and in-situ monitoring of damage accumulation

The scope of this dissertation is to develop and apply x ray attenuation measurement systems that are capable of: (1) characterizing density variations in high-temperature materials, e.g., monolithic ceramics, ceramic and intermetallic matrix composites, and (2) noninvasively monitoring damage accumulation and failure sequences in ceramic matrix composites under room temperature tensile testing. This dissertation results in the development of: (1) a point scan digital radiography system, and (2) an in-situ x ray material testing system. Radiographic evaluation before, during, and after loading shows the effect of preexisting volume flaws on the fracture behavior of composites. Results show that x ray film radiography can monitor damage accumulation during tensile loading. Matrix cracking, fiber matrix debonding, fiber bridging, and fiber pullout are imaged throughout the tensile loading of the specimens. Further in-situ radiography is found to be a practical technique for estimating interfacial shear strength between the silicon carbide fibers and the reaction bonded silicon nitride matrix. It is concluded that pretest, in-situ, and post test x ray imaging can provide for greater understanding of ceramic matrix composite mechanical behavior.

Baaklini, George Y.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE: Neubrex Well 16B(78)-32 DAS Data - April, 2024

This dataset comprises Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) data collected from the Utah FORGE monitoring well 16B(78)-32 (the producer well) during hydraulic fracture stimulation operations conducted in April 2024. The data were acquired continuously over the stimulation period at a temporal sampling rate of 10,000 Hz (10 kS/s) and a spatial resolution of approximately 3.35 feet (1.02109 meters). The measurements were captured using a Neubrex NBX-S4100 Time Gated Digital DAS interrogator unit connected to a single-mode fiber optic cable, which was permanently installed within the casing string. All recorded channels correspond to downhole segments of the fiber optic cable, from a measured depth (MD) of 5,369.35 feet to 10,352.11 feet. The DAS data reflect raw acoustic energy generated by physical processes within and surrounding the well during stimulation activities at wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32. These data have potential applications in analyzing cross-well strain, far-field strain rates (including microseismic activity), induced seismicity, and seismic imaging. Metadata embedded in the attributes of the HDF5 files include detailed information on the measured depths of the channels, interrogation parameters, and other acquisition details. The dataset also includes a recording of a seminar held on September 19, 2024, where Neubrex's Chief Operating Officer presented insights into the data collection, analysis, and preliminary findings. The raw data files, stored in HDF5 format, are organized chronologically according to the recording intervals from April 9 to April 24, 2024, with each file corresponding to a 12-second recording interval.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1999

Intermediate Temperature Stress Rupture of a Woven Hi-Nicalon, BN-Interphase, SiC Matric Composite in Air

Woven Hi-Nicalon (TM) reinforced melt-infiltrated SiC matrix composites were tested under tensile stress-rupture conditions in air at intermediate temperatures. A comprehensive examination of the damage state and the fiber properties at failure was performed. Modal acoustic emission analysis was used to monitor damage during the experiment. Extensive microscopy of the composite fracture surfaces and the individual fiber fracture surfaces was used to determine the mechanisms leading to ultimate failure. The rupture properties of these composites were significantly worse than expected compared to the fiber properties under similar conditions. This was due to the oxidation of the BN interphase. Oxidation occurred through the matrix cracks that intersected the surface or edge of a tensile bar. These oxidation reactions resulted in minor degradation to fiber strength and strong bonding of the fibers to one another at regions of near fiber-to-fiber contact. It was found that two regimes for rupture exist for this material: a high stress regime where rupture occurs at a fast rate and a low stress regime where rupture occurs at a slower rate. For the high stress regime, the matrix damage state consisted of through thickness cracks. The average fracture strength of fibers that were pulled-out (the final fibers to break before ultimate failure) was controlled by the slow-crack growth rupture criterion in the literature for individual Hi-Nicalon (TM) fibers. For the low stress regime, the matrix damage state consisted of microcracks which grew during the rupture test. The average fracture strength of fibers that were pulled-out in this regime was the same as the average fracture strength of individual fibers pulled out in as-produced composites tested at room temperature.

Morscher, Gregory N.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The EGS Collab project: Outcomes and lessons learned from hydraulic fracture stimulations in crystalline rock at 1.25 and 1.5 km depth

With the goal of better understanding stimulation in crystalline rock for improving enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), the EGS Collab Project performed a series of stimulations and flow tests at 1.25 and 1.5 km depths. The tests were performed in two well-instrumented testbeds in the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, United States. The testbed for Experiment 1 at 1.5 km depth contained two open wells for injection and production and six instrumented monitoring wells surrounding the targeted stimulation zone. Four multi-step stimulation tests targeting hydraulic fracturing and nearly year-long ambient temperature and chilled water flow tests were performed in Experiment 1. The testbed for Experiments 2 and 3 was at 1.25 km depth and contained five open wells in an outwardly fanning five-spot pattern and two fans of well-instrumented monitoring wells surrounding the targeted stimulation zone. Experiment 2 targeted shear stimulation, and Experiment 3 targeted low-flow, high-flow, and oscillating pressure stimulation strategies. Hydraulic fracturing was successful in Experiments 1 and 3 in generating a connected system wherein injected water could be collected. However, the resulting flow was distributed dynamically, and not entirely collected at the anticipated production well. Thermal breakthrough was not observed in the production well, but that could have been masked by the Joule-Thomson effect. Shear stimulation in Experiment 2 did not occur - despite attempting to pressurize the fractures most likely to shear - because of the inability to inject water into a mostly-healed fracture, and the low shear-to-normal stress ratio. The EGS Collab experiments are described to provide a background for lessons learned on topics including induced seismicity, the correlation between seismicity and permeability, distributed and dynamic flow systems, thermoelastic and pressure effects, shear stimulation, local geology, thermal breakthrough, monitoring stimulation, grouting boreholes, modeling, and system management.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2009

Health Monitoring of a Rotating Disk Using a Combined Analytical-Experimental Approach

Rotating disks undergo rigorous mechanical loading conditions that make them subject to a variety of failure mechanisms leading to structural deformities and cracking. During operation, periodic loading fluctuations and other related factors cause fractures and hidden internal cracks that can only be detected via noninvasive types of health monitoring and/or nondestructive evaluation. These evaluations go further to inspect material discontinuities and other irregularities that have grown to become critical defects that can lead to failure. Hence, the objectives of this work is to conduct a collective analytical and experimental study to present a well-rounded structural assessment of a rotating disk by means of a health monitoring approach and to appraise the capabilities of an in-house rotor spin system. The analyses utilized the finite element method to analyze the disk with and without an induced crack at different loading levels, such as rotational speeds starting at 3000 up to 10 000 rpm. A parallel experiment was conducted to spin the disk at the desired speeds in an attempt to correlate the experimental findings with the analytical results. The testing involved conducting spin experiments which, covered the rotor in both damaged and undamaged (i.e., notched and unnotched) states. Damaged disks had artificially induced through-thickness flaws represented in the web region ranging from 2.54 to 5.08 cm (1 to 2 in.) in length. This study aims to identify defects that are greater than 1.27 cm (0.5 in.), applying available means of structural health monitoring and nondestructive evaluation, and documenting failure mechanisms experienced by the rotor system under typical turbine engine operating conditions.

Abdul-Aziz, Ali↗

DOE OSTI2023

Utah FORGE Project 3-2417: Simulations for Distributed Acoustic Sensing Strain Signatures as an Indicator of Fracture Connectivity

This dataset encompasses simulations of strain signatures from both hydraulically connected and "near-miss" fractures in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The files and results are presented from the perspective of digital acoustic sensing's (DAS) potential to differentiate the two fracture types. This dataset was acquired by the FOGMORE R&D project (Fiber Optic Geophysical MOnitoring of Reservoir Evolution), under Utah FORGE R&D Project 3-2417. Included are simulation and results via MatLab and COMSOL files, as well as a thesis and paper summarizing the results. Some stimulated fractures may be incomplete, approaching but not intersecting the production well. These "near-miss" fractures can be addressed in future stimulation stages or re-stimulated to complete the connection. We propose the use of fiber optic distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) as a method by which near-miss stimulated fractures may be identified and distinguished from hydraulically connected fractures. The low-frequency sub-nanostrain signatures of both complete and near-miss fractures in DAS data are simulated in this study using a hydrogeomechanical discrete fracture network model. The spatial distribution of strain was found to be an accurate indicator. However, this indicator must be evaluated in the context of DAS gauge length and spatial sampling. These simulations are a precursor to tests conducted at FORGE in 2023.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microseismic Monitoring at the Farnsworth CO 2 -EOR Field

The Farnsworth Unit in northern Texas is a field site for studying geologic carbon storage during enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using CO 2 . Microseismic monitoring is essential for risk assessment by detecting fluid leakage and fractures. We analyzed borehole microseismic data acquired during CO 2 injection and migration, including data denoising, event detection, event location, magnitude estimation, moment tensor inversion, and stress field inversion. We detected and located two shallow clusters, which occurred during increasing injection pressure. The two shallow clusters were also featured by large b values and tensile cracking moment tensors that are obtained based on a newly developed moment tensor inversion method using single-borehole data. The inverted stress fields at the two clusters showed large deviations from the regional stress field. The results provide evidence for microseismic responses to CO 2 /fluid injection and migration.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA NTRS2013

Combined Effects of Spaceflight and Age in Astronauts as Assessed by Areal Bone Mineral Density [BMD] and Trabecular Bone Score

Spaceflight is a potential risk factor for secondary osteoporosis in astronauts. Although lumbar spine (LS) BMD declines rapidly, more than expected for age, there have been no fragility fractures in astronauts that can clearly be attributed to spaceflight. Recently, astronauts have been returning from 6‐month spaceflights with absolute BMD still above young adult mean BMD. In spite of these BMD measurements, we project that the rapid loss in bone mass over long‐duration spaceflight affects the bone microarchitecture of the LS which might predispose astronauts to premature vertebral fractures. Thus, we evaluated TBS, a novel texture index correlated with vertebral bone microarchitecture, as a means of monitoring changes to bone microarchitecture in astronauts as they age. We previously reported that TBS detects an effect of spaceflight (~6‐month duration), independent of BMD, in 51 astronauts (47+/‐4 y) (Smith et al, J Clin Densitometry 2014). Hence, TBS was evaluated in serial DXA scans (Hologic Discovery W) conducted triennially in all active and retired astronauts and more frequently (before spaceflight, after spaceflight and until recovery) in the subset of astronauts flying 4‐6‐ month missions. We used non‐linear models to describe trends in observations (BMD or TBS) plotted as a function of astronaut age. We fitted 1175 observations of 311 astronauts, pre‐flight and then postflight starting 3 years after landing or after astronaut's BMD for LS was restored to within 2% of preflight BMD. Observations were then grouped and defined as follows: 1) LD: after exposure to at least one long‐duration spaceflight > 100 days and 2) SD: before LD and after exposure to at least one short-duration spaceflight < 30 days. Data from males and females were analyzed separately. Models of SD observations revealed that TBS and BMD had similar curvilinear declines with age for both male and female astronauts. However, models of LD observations showed TBS declining with age while BMD appeared stable or trending upward. For females (n=8) LD observations were too few to discern a trend. Notably, models describing trends in TBS appeared to be more sensitive to the effects of age than the models for BMD. We conclude that TBS may provide an additional index for the lumbar spine to monitor the combined changes due to spaceflight and due to aging. This increased knowledge may enhance the ability to identify an intervention trigger for premature vertebral fractures in astronauts.

Sibonga, Jean D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Expanding the Description of Spaceflight Effects beyond Bone Mineral Density [BMD]: Trabecular Bone Score [TBS] in ISS Astronauts

Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry [DXA] is the widely-applied bone densitometry method used to diagnose osteoporosis in a terrestrial population known to be at risk for age-related bone loss. This medical test, which measures areal bone mineral density [aBMD] of clinically-relevant skeletal sites (e.g., hip and spine), helps the clinician to identify which persons, among postmenopausal women and men older than 50 years, are at high risk for low trauma or fragility fractures and might require an intervention. The most recognized osteoporotic fragility fracture is the vertebral compression fracture which can lead to kyphosis or hunched backs typically seen in the elderly. DXA measurement of BMD however is recognized to be insufficient as a sole index for assessing fracture risk. DXA's limitation may be related to its inability to monitor changes in structural parameters, such as trabecular vs. cortical bone volumes, bone geometry or trabecular microarchitecture. Hence, in order to understand risks to human health and performance due to space exposure, NASA needs to expand its measurements of bone to include other contributors to skeletal integrity. To this aim, the Bone and Mineral Lab conducted a pilot study for a novel measurement of bone microarchitecture that can be obtained by retrospective analysis of DXA scans. Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) assesses changes to trabecular microarchitecture by measuring the grey color "texture" information extracted from DXA images of the lumbar spine. An analysis of TBS in 51 ISS astronauts was conducted to assess if TBS could detect 1) an effect of spaceflight and 2) a response to countermeasures independent of DXA BMD. In addition, changes in trunk body lean tissue mass and in trunk body fat tissue mass were also evaluated to explore an association between body composition, as impacted by ARED exercise, and bone microarchitecture. The pilot analysis of 51 astronaut scans of the lumbar spine suggests that, following an ISS mission, DXA BMD and TBS are detecting different effects of ARED exercise and of ARED + Bisphosphonate on the lumbar spine of astronauts. There is emerging evidence associating reduced TBS with terrestrial metabolic bone disorders where a TBS <1.200 is associated with "degraded" while > 1.350 is associated with "normal." However, it is not possible to conclude how the spaceflight-induced changes in TBS increase risk for vertebral fractures in the astronaut or if changes in body composition of the trunk region could be an indirect method of assessing exercise effect on bone microarchitecture. More importantly, this pilot analysis demonstrates a new, minimal risk approach for monitoring changes to vertebral bone microarchitecture. This method could help assess the combined skeletal effects of spaceflight with the effects of aging in the astronaut after return to Earth.

Sibonga, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Delamination Modeling of Composites for Improved Crash Analysis

Finite element crash modeling of composite structures is limited by the inability of current commercial crash codes to accurately model delamination growth. Efforts are made to implement and assess delamination modeling techniques using a current finite element crash code, MSC/DYTRAN. Three methods are evaluated, including a straightforward method based on monitoring forces in elements or constraints representing an interface; a cohesive fracture model proposed in the literature; and the virtual crack closure technique commonly used in fracture mechanics. Results are compared with dynamic double cantilever beam test data from the literature. Examples show that it is possible to accurately model delamination propagation in this case. However, the computational demands required for accurate solution are great and reliable property data may not be available to support general crash modeling efforts. Additional examples are modeled including an impact-loaded beam, damage initiation in laminated crushing specimens, and a scaled aircraft subfloor structures in which composite sandwich structures are used as energy-absorbing elements. These examples illustrate some of the difficulties in modeling delamination as part of a finite element crash analysis.

Fleming, David C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Delamination Modeling of Composites for Improved Crash Analysis

Fleming, David C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Evaluation of Critical Care Monitor Technology During the US Navy Strong Angel Exercise

The NASA critical path road map identifies "trauma and acute medical problems" as a clinical capability risk category (http://criticalDath.isc.nasa.gov). Specific risks include major trauma, organ laceration or contusion, hemoperitoneum, pulmonary failure, pneumo- and hemothorax, burn, open bone fracture, blunt head trauma, and penetrating injury. Mitigation of these risks includes the capability for critical care monitoring. Currently, the International Space Station (ISS) Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) does not provide such a capability. The Clinical Space Medicine Strategic Planning Forum (4/8/97), sponsored by NASA Medical Operations, identified the development of trauma care capabilities as one of the top priorities for space medicine. The Clinical Care Capability Development Project (CCCDP) subsequently undertook the task to address this need.

Johannesen, John↗

DOE OSTI2024

DASEventNet: AI‐Based Microseismic Detection on Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data From the Utah FORGE Well 16A (78)‐32 Hydraulic Stimulation

Abstract Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has emerged as a promising seismic technology for monitoring microearthquakes (MEQs) with high spatial resolution. Efficient algorithms are needed for processing large DAS data volumes. This study introduces a deep learning (DL) model based on a Residual Convolutional Neural Network (ResNet) for detecting MEQs using DAS data, named as DASEventNet. The test data were collected from the Utah FORGE 16A (78)‐32 hydraulic stimulation experiments conducted in April 2022. The DASEventNet model achieves a remarkable accuracy of 100% when discriminating MEQs from noise in the raw test set of 260 examples. Surprisingly, the model identified weak MEQ signatures that have been manually categorized as noise. The decision‐making process with the model is decoded by the classic activation map, which illuminates learning features of the DASEventNet model. These features provide clear illustrations of weak MEQs and varied noise types. Finally, we apply the trained model to the entire period (∼7 days) of continuous DAS recordings and find that it discovers >5,700 new MEQs, previously unregistered in the public Silixa DAS catalog. The DASEventNet model significantly outperforms the traditional seismic method Short‐Term Average/Long‐Term Average (STA/LTA), which detected only 1,307 MEQs. The DASEventNet detection threshold is M w −1.80 compared to the minimum magnitude of M w −1.14 detected by STA/LTA. The spatiotemporal distribution of the newly identified MEQs defines an extensive stimulation zone and more accurately characterizes fracture geometry. Our results highlight the potential of DL for long‐term, real‐time microseismic monitoring that can improve enhanced geothermal systems and other activities that include subsurface hydraulic fracturing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2024

Risk of Bone Fracture due to Spaceflight-induced Changes to Bone

The Human Research Program (HRP) is taking a biomechanical approach to assessing subsequent fracture risk in active astronauts as a consequence of spaceflight exposure. Triennial testing of active and retired astronauts continues as Space Medicine monitors for a premature diagnosis of primary osteoporosis, which is associated with age-related bone loss and skeletal fragility. This updated 2023 Fracture Evidence Report has expanded the description of skeletal changes to capture the full effects of spaceflight on bone: • Recent analysis of fractures from health records of the full astronaut cohort, suggests an increased incidence rate of hip and spine fractures in astronauts following longer spaceflight duration flights compared to incident rates found in shorter duration flights. • Routine preflight-to-postflight surveillance by DXA (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry) does not provide the full detection of loss and recovery in the long-duration (LD) astronaut nor the full recovery of hip trabecular bone. • The inclusion of hip quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in flight studies delineates effects of spaceflight, of countermeasures, and of post-flight recovery on cortical and trabecular bone parameters—some of which are verified predictors of hip fracture in the aged. • QCT detects and compares the distinct countermeasure effects of the pharmaceutical alendronate and of resistive exercise (on the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device, ARED) in specific cortical and trabecular bone sub-regions during spaceflight. • A published comparison of QCT-determined loss rates of hip trabecular bone in LD astronauts compared to terrestrial cohorts suggest that accelerated loss rates in trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD) during spaceflight might be analogous to skeletal effects of accelerated loss rates in females due to menopause, potentially leading to disruptions in trabecular microarchitecture. • A dataset of finite element (FE) estimates of hip bone strength in aging terrestrial cohorts (spanning astronaut age-range) provides comparative context for changes in the FE of hip bone strength in LD astronauts, including comparison (force unit of newton) to percentiles (50th, 75th, and 100th) of sex-matched aged humans with hip fractures. • Risk of fracture, due to the mechanical overloading of bones, is being updated with IMPACT, the next-generation tool suite for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for exploration missions being created by the Exploration and Medical Capability Element (ExMC) at NASA. IMPACT is currently in development and will not be included in this 2024 update. The risk for fracture necessitates understanding the relationship between applied loads to bone and the biomechanical competence of bone. The Risk for Early Onset Osteoporosis focuses on the weakened condition of bone (including development of new technologies, measurements of novel skeletal attributes, translation of multiple measures to an index of bone fragility, and interpretations of data used to reflect a weakened bone), while the Risk for Fracture assesses factors that influence the probability an astronaut would encounter applied loads exceeding the biomechanical competence of bones, resulting in fracture. This Evidence Report combines the research gaps and tasks associated with both risks.

Fracture↗