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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

Future Weather Forecasting in the Year 2020-Investing in Technology Today: Improving Weather and Environmental Predictions

Fast-forward twenty years to the nightly simultaneous TV/webcast. Accurate 8-14 day regional forecasts will be available as will be a whole host of linked products including economic impact, travel, energy usage, etc. On-demand, personalized street-level forecasts will be downloaded into your PDA. Your home system will automatically update the products of interest to you (e.g. severe storm forecasts, hurricane predictions, etc). Short and long range climate forecasts will be used by your "Quicken 2020" to make suggest changes in your "futures" investment portfolio. Through a lively and informative multi-media presentation, leading Space-Earth Science Researchers and Technologists will share their vision for the year 2020, offering a possible futuristic forecast enabled through the application of new technologies under development today. Copies of the 'broadcast' will be available on Beta Tape for your own future use. If sufficient interest exists, the program may also be made available for broadcasters wishing to do stand-ups with roll-ins from the San Francisco meeting for their viewers back home.

Anthes, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1992

Earth System science

Recent research has solidified a view of the Earth as a global-scale interactive system with complex chemical, physical, biological and dynamical processes that link the ocean, atmosphere, land (soils, ice, snow) and marine and terrestrial living organisms. These processes both within and between the major parts of the system help determine global and regional climate and control the biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles essential to life. The study of the Earth System requires measurements ranging from the scales of the smallest processes to the global scale. An ambitious satellite observational program, the Earth Observing System (EOS), carried out along with the complementary and ongoing World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) represents a major international effort to understand this System and predict its future changes. The complex and intriguing nature of the Earth System is discussed along with a number of closely coupled processes occurring within it. These are: clouds, precipitation and vegetation; ocean circulation, sea-surface temperature and phytoplankton; coupled oceanic and atmospheric circulation (the Southern Oscillation); biological activity, atmospheric chemistry and climate; and biological emissions and the ozone layer.

Prinn, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Emphasizing Spectrum Management for Sustainable Development Research and Applications in Disaster Management

NASA's spaceborne Earth and Heliospheric Observatories and airborne sensors provide a plethora of measurements. These measurements are used in science research to understand the climatology of our home planet and the solar fluxes and cycle of the only star in our solar system 'Sun' which is critical driver for the retention of life on Earth. Specifically, these measurements help us to understand the water and energy cycle, the carbon cycle, weather and climate, atmospheric chemistry, solar variability, and solid Earth and interior to feed into sophisticated mathematical models to analyze and predict the Earth's behavior as an integrated system. The main thrust of this research is on improving the prediction capability in the areas of weather, long term climate and solid Earth processes, and further help the humanity and future generations in terms of societal benefits in managing natural disasters, sustainability issues and many more. This work is further linked with our contributions in the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) Specifically, the data and knowledge resulting from the Earth observing systems and analytical models of the Earth can be made available for assimilation into decision support systems to serve society for disaster management. Through partnerships with national and international agencies and organizations, NASA's Science Mission Directorate's, Applied Sciences Program contributes to benchmarking practical uses of observations and predictions from Earth science remote sensing systems research. The objective is to establish innovative solutions using Earth observations and science information to provide decision support that can be adapted in applications of national and international priority. We along with the international community will continue this critical field of investigation by using our existing and future sensors from space, airborne and insitue environment. In our quest to expanding our knowledge, there will be a need for deploying additional sensors to obtain high spatial, temporal and spectral resolution measurements. These sensors operate in multiple spectral band ranging from UV, visible, infrared, microwave and radio frequency ranges. Of a particular concern is the microwave frequency bands which play a key role in land, ocean, moisture sensing. This is because of a growing commercial demand in the area of high speed broadband communication all over the world, the electronic manufacturers are looking into high frequency microwave spectral bands. This may present a risk to the remote sensing sensors because of additional sources of noise that can impair the highly sensitive passive remote sensing instruments.

Ambrose, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS1995

Remote Sensing and halocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCMs) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are short-term records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCMs must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. Unfortunately different parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe.

D'Antoni, Hector L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Remote Sensing and Holocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCM's) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are shortterm records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCM's must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. An appropriate timeframe should extend over the Holocene period (the last 10,000 years) when most contemporary climate and environmental processes began. Since its inception in 1916, pollen analysis has successfully reconstructed the paleoecology of the last 10,000 years for many sites around the world, thus providing a powerful time-link between short- and long-term processes in the biosphere. However, pollen analytic results cannot be used in physiological models driven by remotely sensed data. Further, modern ecology and climate data are necessary to calibrate pollen analytical models. These are available for extensive regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly for eastern United States and Canada, and western Europe. In other parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe. This is the case of Patagonia in Argentina where a few weather stations are located close to the Atlantic seaports, fewer stations are in towns located near the eastern Andean foothill, and fewer still are scattered on the extensive Patagonian plateau. This problem became evident after completion of the Argentine-German Program of Palynology (PROPAL), a cooperative effort of National University of Mar del Plata (Argentina) and University Bamberg (Germany) to produce a modern pollen database for the Pampa and Patagonia regions.

DAntoni, Hector↗
NASA NTRS2008

NASA Contributions to Improve Understanding of Extreme Events in the Global Energy and Water Cycle

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has established the water cycle goals of the Nation's climate change program. Accomplishing these goals will require, in part, an accurate accounting of the key reservoirs and fluxes associated with the global water and energy cycle, including their spatial and temporal variability. through integration of all necessary observations and research tools, To this end, in conjunction with NASA's Earth science research strategy, the overarching long-term NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) grand challenge can he summarized as documenting and enabling improved, observationally based, predictions of water and energy cycle consequences of Earth system variability and change. This challenge requires documenting and predicting trends in the rate of the Earth's water and energy cycling that corresponds to climate change and changes in the frequency and intensity of naturally occurring related meteorological and hydrologic events, which may vary as climate may vary in the future. The cycling of water and energy has obvious and significant implications for the health and prosperity of our society. The importance of documenting and predicting water and energy cycle variations and extremes is necessary to accomplish this benefit to society.

Lapenta, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Routine High-Resolution Forecasts/Analyses for the Pacific Disaster Center: User Manual

Enclosed herein is our HWCMO user manual. This manual constitutes the final report for our NASA/PDC grant, NASA NAG5-8730, "Routine High Resolution Forecasts/Analysis for the Pacific Disaster Center". Since the beginning of the grant, we have routinely provided experimental high resolution forecasts from the RSM/MSM for the Hawaii Islands, while working to upgrade the system to include: (1) a more robust input of NCEP analyses directly from NCEP; (2) higher vertical resolution, with increased forecast accuracy; (3) faster delivery of forecast products and extension of initial 1-day forecasts to 2 days; (4) augmentation of our basic meteorological and simplified fireweather forecasts to firedanger and drought forecasts; (5) additional meteorological forecasts with an alternate mesoscale model (MM5); and (6) the feasibility of using our modeling system to work in higher-resolution domains and other regions. In this user manual, we provide a general overview of the operational system and the mesoscale models as well as more detailed descriptions of the models. A detailed description of daily operations and a cost analysis is also provided. Evaluations of the models are included although it should be noted that model evaluation is a continuing process and as potential problems are identified, these can be used as the basis for making model improvements. Finally, we include our previously submitted answers to particular PDC questions (Appendix V). All of our initially proposed objectives have basically been met. In fact, a number of useful applications (VOG, air pollution transport) are already utilizing our experimental output and we believe there are a number of other applications that could make use of our routine forecast/analysis products. Still, work still remains to be done to further develop this experimental weather, climate, fire danger and drought prediction system. In short, we would like to be a part of a future PDC team, if at all possible, to further develop and apply the system for the Hawaiian and other Pacific Islands as well as the entire Pacific Basin.

Roads, John↗
NASA NTRS2016

Future Nuisance Flooding at Boston Caused by Astronomical Tides Alone

Sea level rise necessarily triggers more occurrences of minor, or nuisance, flooding events along coastlines, a fact well documented in recent studies. At some locations nuisance flooding can be brought about merely by high spring tides, independent of storms, winds, or other atmospheric conditions. Analysis of observed water levels at Boston indicates that tidal flooding began to occur there in 2011 and will become more frequent in subsequent years. A compilation of all predicted nuisance-flooding events, induced by astronomical tides alone, is presented through year 2050. The accuracy of the tide prediction is improved when several unusual properties of Gulf of Maine tides, including secular changes, are properly accounted for. Future mean sea-level rise at Boston cannot be predicted with comparable confidence, so two very different climate scenarios are adopted; both predict a large increase in the frequency and the magnitude of tidal flooding events.

Ray, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Building Climate Resilience at NASA Ames

NASA Ames Research Center, located at the southern end of the San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary has identified three primary vulnerabilities to changes in climate. The Ames Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) workgroup has studied each of these challenges to operations and the potential exposure of infrastructure and employees to an increased frequency of hazards. Sea level rise inundation scenarios for the SFB Area generally refer to projected scenarios in mean sea level rather than changes in extreme tides that could occur during future storm conditions. In the Summer of 2014, high resolution 3-D mapping of the low lying portion of Ames was performed. Those data are integrated with improved sea level inundation scenarios to identify the buildings, basements and drainage systems potentially affected. We will also identify the impacts of sea level and storm surge effects on transportation to and from the Center. This information will help Center Management develop future Master Plans. Climate change will also lead to changes in temperature, storm frequency and intensity. These changes have potential impacts on localized floods and ecosystems, as well as on electricity and water availability. Over the coming decades, these changes are going to be imposed on top of ongoing land use and land cover changes, especially those deriving from continued urbanization and increase in impervious surface areas. These coupled changes have the potential to create a series of cascading impacts on ecosystems, including changes in primary productivity and disturbance of hydrological properties and increased flood risk.The majority of the electricity used at Ames is supplied by hydroelectric dams, which will be influenced by reductions in precipitation or changes in the timing or phase of precipitation which reduces snow pack. Coupled with increased demand for summertime air conditioning and other cooling needs, NASA Ames is at risk for electricity shortfalls. To assess the anticipated energy usage as climate changes, the Ames CASI team is collecting historical energy usage data from Ames facilities, historical weather data, and projected future weather parameters from the CASI Climate subgroup. This data will be incorporated into the RETScreen model to predict how energy usage at Ames will change over the coming century.

climate↗
NASA NTRS2003

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)

Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the key scientific problems facing monsoon climates and provide examples of common monsoon features, and possible monsoon induced teleconnections linking different parts of the world.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Long-Term Changes in Lower Tropospheric Baseline Ozone Concentrations:

Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northernmidlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by approximately 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only approximately 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture approximately 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NO(sub x), an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

atmospheric composition↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Information and Lessons Learned from the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX), Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (NASA SPoRT), and the NASA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES)

Climate resilience can emerge from a combination of (1) climate projections that enable future-oriented planning and (2) contemporary observations that can be used for adaptation in the face of realized climate. NASA is uniquely positioned to provide global climate projections and satellite-based observations to users who must take a global perspective on climate risk (e.g., supply chain managers). Here, we will share the capabilities and experiences of three NASA projects. The first project, the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX) provides two downscaled climate projections, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, a global 25 km resolution product, and NEX-DCP30-CMIP6, an 800 m resolution product covering the coterminous U.S. specifically designed for U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). NEX also offers land surface products that mirror the twice-daily products provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) but are derived from operational geostationary weather satellite data collected at 5-10 minutes intervals. The second project, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), was established in 2002 to transition unique NASA satellite products and capabilities to stakeholders to improve decision-making that benefits society. SPoRT provides products and capabilities derived from NASA observations and models to end users in government, academia, and the private sector. SPoRT translates NASA Earth science into actionable solutions reaching over 400 stakeholders across 80 organizations. Finally, the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is designed to facilitate regional-scale evaluations of climate models by providing standardized access to a vast and comprehensive set of observations, such as satellite, in-situ, and reanalyses, and modeling resources such as CMIP & CORDEX. These three projects form part of the core capabilities at the NASA Centers deliver climate information under the new NASA Earth Science to Action (ES2A) strategy.

NEX↗
NASA NTRS1997

Cloud Forcing and the Earth's Radiation Budget: New Ideas and New Observations

1. NEW PERSPECTIVES ON CLOUD-RADIATIVE FORCING. When the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) produced the first measurements of cloud-radiative forcing, the climate community interpreted the results from a context in which the atmosphere was a single column, strongly coupled to the Earth's surface. 2. NEW PERSPECTIVES ON CLOUD-RADIATION OBSERVATIONS. The climate community is also on the verge of adding a new dimension to its observational capability. In classic thinking about atmospheric circulation and climate, surface pressure was a readily available quantity. As meteorology developed, it was possible to develop quantitative predictions of future weather by bringing together a network of surface pressure observations and then of profiles of temperature and humidity obtained from balloons. 3. ON COMBINING OBSERVATIONS AND THE - ORY. With this new capability, it is natural to seek recognizable features in the observations we make of the Earth. There are techniques we can use to group the remotely sensed data in the individual footprints into objects that we can track. We will present one such image-processing application to radiation budget data, showing how we can interpret the radiation budget data in terms of cloud systems that are organized into systematic patterns of behavior - an ecosystem-like view of cloud behavior.

Barkstrom, Bruce R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under ‘business as usual’ rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

Maria F. Adame↗
NASA NTRS2020

Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit

Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure deficit (VPD). VPD has been identified as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought‐induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in ‘next‐generation’ land‐surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant‐ and global‐scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long‐term projections of climate impacts can be made.

mortality↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling the Distribution and Type of High-Latitude Natural Wetlands for Methane Studies

High latitude (>50N) natural wetlands emit a substantial amount of methane to the atmosphere, and are located in a region of amplified warming. Northern hemisphere high latitudes are characterized by cold climates, extensive permafrost, poor drainage, short growing seasons, and slow decay rates. Under these conditions, organic carbon accumulates in the soil, sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Methanogens produce methane from this carbon reservoir, converting stored carbon into a powerful greenhouse gas. Methane emission from wetland ecosystems depends on vegetation type, climate characteristics (e.g, precipitation amount and seasonality, temperature, snow cover, etc.), and geophysical variables (e.g., permafrost, soil type, and landscape slope). To understand how wetland methane dynamics in this critical region will respond to climate change, we have to first understand how wetlands themselves will change and therefore, what the primary controllers of wetland distribution and type are. Understanding these relationships permits data-anchored, physically-based modeling of wetland distribution and type in other climate scenarios, such as paleoclimates or future climates, a necessary first step toward modeling wetland methane emissions in these scenarios. We investigate techniques and datasets for predicting the distribution and type of high latitude (>50N) natural wetlands from a suite of geophysical and climate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is used to derive an empirical methane-centric wetland model. The model is applied in a multistep process first to predict the distribution of wetlands from relevant geophysical parameters, and then, given the predicted wetland distribution, to classify the wetlands into methane-relevant types using an expanded suite of climate and biogeophysical variables. As the optimum set of predictor variables is not known a priori, the model is applied iteratively, and each simulation is evaluated with respect to observed high-latitude wetlands.

Romanski, Joy↗
NASA NTRS2019

SI-Traceable Calibration of Satellite Microwave Radiometers

Background (what): SI (International System of Units)-traceable Microwave Radiometer calibration; Motivation (why): NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction), FCDR (Fundamental Climate Data Record); Technology (how): NIST (National Inst. of Standards and Technology) blackbody target for ; Standards: Status & Future Plans. Development of a National Standard for Microwave Brightness Temperature (TB) at NIST.

MW Radiometer TB Calibration↗
NASA NTRS2023

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

SST↗