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At least 145 records · Page 8

Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flooding in New York City

The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a special advisory group comprised of university and private-sector experts. This paper highlights current NPCC findings regarding sea level rise and coastal flooding, with some of the City's ongoing and planned responses. Twentieth century sea level rise in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.7 cm/decade), underscoring the enhanced regional risk to coastal hazards. NPCC (2015) projects future sea level rise at the Battery of 28 - 53 cm by the 2050s and 46 - 99 cm by the 2080s, relative to 2000 - 2004 (mid-range, 25th - 75th percentile). High-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) reach 76 cm by the 2050s, and 1.9 m by 2100. Combining these projections with updated FEMA flood return period curves, assuming static flood dynamics and storm behavior, flood heights for the 100-year storm (excluding waves) attain 3.9-4.5 m (mid-range), relative to the NAVD88 tidal datum, and 4.9 m (high end) by the 2080s, up from 3.4 m in the 2000s. Flood heights with a 1% annual chance of occurrence in the 2000s increase to 2.0 - 5.4% (mid-range) and 12.7% per year (high-end), by the 2080s. Guided by NPCC (2013, 2015) findings, New York City has embarked on a suite of initiatives to strengthen coastal defenses, employing various approaches tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC continues its collaboration with the city to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves, inland floods and coastal storms. Current research entails higher-resolution neighborhood-level coastal flood mapping, changes in storm characteristics, surge height interactions with sea level rise, and stronger engagement with stakeholders and community-based organizations.

Coastal flooding↗

Low-cost, Risk-Reduction Testing of Class D Spacecraft Photovoltaic Systems

The end-to-end verification of a spacecraft photovoltaic power generation system requires light! A low-cost, portable, and end-to-end photovoltaic-system test appropriate for NASAs new generation of Class D missions is presented. High risk, low-cost, and quick-turn satellites rarely have the resources to execute the traditional approaches from higher-class (A-C) missions. The Class D approach, as demonstrated on the Lunar Atmospheric and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE), utilizes a portable, metal-halide, theatre lamp for an end-to-end photovoltaic system test. While not as precise and comprehensive as the traditional Large Area Pulsed Solar Simulator (LAPSS) test, the LADEE method leverages minimal resources into an ongoing assessment program that can be applied through numerous stages of the mission. The project takes a true Class D approach in assessing the technical value of a costly, high-fidelity performance test versus a simpler approach with less programmatic risk. The resources required are a fraction of that for a LAPSS test, and is easy to repeat due to its portability. Further, the test equipment can be handed down to future projects without building an on-site facility.At the vanguard of Class D missions, the LADEE team frequently wrestled with and challenged the status quo. The philosophy of risk avoidance at all cost, typical to Class A-C missions, simply could not be executed. This innovative and simple testing solution is contextualized to NASA Class D programs and a specific risk encountered during development of the LADEE Electrical Power System (EPS). Selection of the appropriate lamp and safety concerns are discussed, with examples of test results. Combined with the vendors panel-level data and periodic inspection, the method ensures system integrity from Integration and Test (IT) through launch. Following launch, mission operations tools are utilized to assess system performance based on a scant amount of available data.

photovoltaic↗

Fabrication of the HIAD Large-Scale Demonstration Assembly and Upcoming Mission Applications

Over a decade of work has been conducted in the development of NASAs Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) technology. This effort has included multiple ground test campaigns and flight tests culminating in the HIAD projects second generation (Gen-2) deployable aeroshell system and associated analytical tools. NASAs HIAD project team has developed, fabricated, and tested inflatable structures (IS) integrated with flexible thermal protection system (F-TPS), ranging in diameters from 3-6m, with cone angles of 60 and 70 deg.In 2015, United Launch Alliance (ULA) announced that they will use a HIAD (10-12m) as part of their Sensible, Modular, Autonomous Return Technology (SMART) for their upcoming Vulcan rocket. ULA expects SMART reusability, coupled with other advancements for Vulcan, will substantially reduce the cost of access to space. The first booster engine recovery via HIAD is scheduled for 2024. To meet this near-term need, as well as future NASA applications, the HIAD team is investigating taking the technology to the 10-15m diameter scale.In the last year, many significant development and fabrication efforts have been accomplished, culminating in the construction of a large-scale inflatable structure demonstration assembly. This assembly incorporated the first three tori for a 12m Mars Human-Scale Pathfinder HIAD conceptual design that was constructed with the current state of the art material set. Numerous design trades and torus fabrication demonstrations preceded this effort. In 2016, three large-scale tori (0.61m cross-section) and six subscale tori (0.25m cross-section) were manufactured to demonstrate fabrication techniques using the newest candidate material sets. These tori were tested to evaluate durability and load capacity. This work led to the selection of the inflatable structures third generation (Gen-3) structural liner. In late 2016, the three tori required for the large-scale demonstration assembly were fabricated, and then integrated in early 2017. The design includes provisions to add the remaining four tori necessary to complete the assembly of the 12m Human-Scale Pathfinder HIAD in the event future project funding becomes available.This presentation will discuss the HIAD large-scale demonstration assembly design and fabrication per-formed in the last year including the precursor tori development and the partial-stack fabrication. Potential near-term and future 10-15m HIAD applications will also be discussed.

Swanson, G. T.↗

Fabrication of the HIAD Large-Scale Demonstration Assembly

Over a decade of work has been conducted in the development of NASA's Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) technology. This effort has included multiple ground test campaigns and flight tests culminating in the HIAD projects second generation (Gen-2) deployable aeroshell system and associated analytical tools. NASAs HIAD project team has developed, fabricated, and tested inflatable structures (IS) integrated with flexible thermal protection system (F-TPS), ranging in diameters from 3-6m, with cone angles of 60 and 70 deg.In 2015, United Launch Alliance (ULA) announced that they will use a HIAD (10-12m) as part of their Sensible, Modular, Autonomous Return Technology (SMART) for their upcoming Vulcan rocket. ULA expects SMART reusability, coupled with other advancements for Vulcan, will substantially reduce the cost of access to space. The first booster engine recovery via HIAD is scheduled for 2024. To meet this near-term need, as well as future NASA applications, the HIAD team is investigating taking the technology to the 10-15m diameter scale. In the last year, many significant development and fabrication efforts have been accomplished, culminating in the construction of a large-scale inflatable structure demonstration assembly. This assembly incorporated the first three tori for a 12m Mars Human-Scale Pathfinder HIAD conceptual design that was constructed with the current state of the art material set. Numerous design trades and torus fabrication demonstrations preceded this effort. In 2016, three large-scale tori (0.61m cross-section) and six subscale tori (0.25m cross-section) were manufactured to demonstrate fabrication techniques using the newest candidate material sets. These tori were tested to evaluate durability and load capacity. This work led to the selection of the inflatable structures third generation (Gen-3) structural liner. In late 2016, the three tori required for the large-scale demonstration assembly were fabricated, and then integrated in early 2017. The design includes provisions to add the remaining four tori necessary to complete the assembly of the 12m Human-Scale Pathfinder HIAD in the event future project funding becomes available.This presentation will discuss the HIAD large-scale demonstration assembly design and fabrication per-formed in the last year including the precursor tori development and the partial-stack fabrication. Potential near-term and future 10-15m HIAD applications will also be discussed.

Swanson, G. T.↗

Design and construction of a remote piloted flying wing

Currently, there is a need for a high-speed, high-lift civilian transport. Although unconventional, a flying wing could fly at speeds in excess of Mach 2 and still retain the capacity of a 747. The design of the flying wing is inherently unstable since it lacks a fuselage and a horizontal tail. The project goal was to design, construct, fly, and test a remote-piloted scale model flying wing. The project was completed as part of the NASA/USRA Advanced Aeronautics Design Program. These unique restrictions required us to implement several fundamental design changes from last year's Elang configuration including wing sweepback and wingtip endplates. Unique features such as a single ducted fan engine, composite structural materials, and an electrostatic stability system were incorporated. The result is the Banshee '94. Our efforts will aid future projects in design and construction techniques so that a viable flying wing can become an integral part of the aviation industry.

Costa, Alfred J.↗

CubeSat Initiatives at KSC

Even though the Small PayLoad Integrated Testing Services or SPLITS line of business is newly established, KSC has been involved in a variety of CubeSat projects and programs. CubeSat development projects have been initiated through educational outreach partnerships with schools and universities, commercial partnerships and internal training initiatives. KSC has also been involved in CubeSat deployment through programs to find launch opportunities to fly CubeSats as auxiliary payloads on previously planned missions and involvement in the development of new launch capabilities for small satellites. This overview will highlight the CubeSat accomplishments at KSC and discuss planning for future projects and opportunities.

CubeSat↗

iPAS: AES Flight System Technology Maturation for Human Spaceflight

In order to realize the vision of expanding human presence in space, NASA will develop new technologies that can enable future crewed spacecraft to go far beyond Earth orbit. These technologies must be matured to the point that future project managers can accept the risk of incorporating them safely and effectively within integrated spacecraft systems, to satisfy very challenging mission requirements. The technologies must also be applied and managed within an operational context that includes both on-board crew and mission support on Earth. The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Program is one part of the NASA strategy to identify and develop key capabilities for human spaceflight, and mature them for future use. To support this initiative, the Integrated Power Avionics and Software (iPAS) environment has been developed that allows engineers, crew, and flight operators to mature promising technologies into applicable capabilities, and to assess the value of these capabilities within a space mission context. This paper describes the development of the integration environment to support technology maturation and risk reduction, and offers examples of technology and mission demonstrations executed to date.

Othon, William L.↗

Study of USGS/NASA land use classification system

The results of a computer mapping project using LANDSAT data and the USGS/NASA land use classification system are summarized. During the computer mapping portion of the project, accuracies of 67 percent to 79 percent were achieved using Level II of the classification system and a 4,000 acre test site centered on Douglasville, Georgia. Analysis of response to a questionaire circulated to actual and potential LANDSAT data users reveals several important findings: (1) there is a substantial desire for additional information related to LANDSAT capabilities; (2) a majority of the respondents feel computer mapping from LANDSAT data could aid present or future projects; and (3) the costs of computer mapping are substantially less than those of other methods.

Spann, G. W.↗

The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

Mankin, Justin S.↗

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗

Message Mode Operations for Spacecraft: A Proposal for Operating Spacecraft During Cruise and Mitigating the Network Loading Crunch

The NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) is a world-class spacecraft tracking facility with stations located in Spain, Australia and USA, servicing Deep Space Missions of many space agencies. The current system of scheduling spacecraft during cruise for multiple 8 hour tracking sessions per week currently leads to an overcommitted DSN. Studies indicate that future projected mission demands upon the Network will only make the loading problem worse. Therefore, a more efficient scheduling of DSN resources is necessary in order to support the additional network loading envisioned in the next few years: The number of missions is projected to increase from 25 in 1998 to 34 by 2001. In fact given the challenge of the NASA administrator, Dan Goldin, of launching 12 spacecraft per year, the DSN would be tracking approximately 90 spacecraft by 2010. Currently a large amount of antenna time and network resources are subscribed by a project in order to have their mission supported during the cruise phase. The recently completed Mars Pathfinder mission was tracked 3 times a week (8 hours/day) during the majority of its cruise to Mars. This paper proposes an innovative approach called Message Mode Operations (MMO) for mitigating the Network loading problem while continuing to meet the tracking, reporting, time management, and scheduling requirements of these missions during Cruise while occupying very short tracking times. MMO satisfies these requirements by providing the following services: Spacecraft Health and Welfare Monitoring Service Command Delivery Service Adaptive Spacecraft Scheduling Service Orbit Determination Service Time Calibration Service Utilizing more efficient engineering telemetry summarization and filtering techniques on-board the spacecraft and collapsing the navigation requirements for Doppler and Range into shorter tracks, we believe spacecraft can be adequately serviced using short 10 to 30 minute tracking sessions. This claim assumes that certain changes would have to he made in the way the Network traditionally services missions in Cruise. Furthermore, limiting spacecraft to short sessions will free up larger blocks of time in the tracking schedule to help accommodate future tracking demands soon to be placed upon the Network. This paper describes the key characteristics and benefits of MMO, the operational scenarios for its use, the required changes to the ground system in order to make this approach feasible and the results of two simulations: 1) to determine the effects of MMO on projected mission loading on the DSN and, 2) to determine the effect MMO has on spacecraft orbit determination.

Greenberg, Ed↗

Overview of an Integrated Medical System for Exploration Missions

The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element of the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) is charged with addressing the risk of unacceptable health and mission outcomes due to limitations of inflight medical capabilities. The Exploration Medical System Demonstration (EMSD) is a project within the ExMC element aimed at reducing this risk by improving the medical capabilities available for exploration missions. The EMSD project will demonstrate, on the ground and on ISS, the integration of several components felt to be essential to the delivery of medical care during long ]duration missions outside of low Earth orbit. The components of the EMSD include the electronic medical record, assisted medical procedure software, medical consumables tracking technology and RFID ] tagged consumables, video conferencing capability, ultrasound device and probes (ground demonstration only), peripheral biosensors, and the software to allow communication among the various components (middleware). This presentation seeks to inform our international partners of the goals and objectives of the EMSD and to foster collaboration opportunities related to this and future projects.

Watkins, Sharmila↗

Observations of the Age of Air from the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Surface

Understanding and modeling the interhemispheric transport (IHT) of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. One IHT measure -- the mean age since air was last at the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface – represents a fundamental property of tropospheric transport that can be estimated from measurements of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Here we use SF6 measurements obtained from the recent NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) to construct observational estimates of the mean age throughout the troposphere. We compare the ATom based ages, which span all four seasons during the period 2016-2018 over both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with previous in situ-based estimates obtained from the HIAPER Pole‐to‐Pole Observations (HIPPO) project, which are available only for the Pacific. In order to interpret the observed variations in mean age and their relationship with the large-scale flow we use simulations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model, constrained with meteorological fields derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), performed over the entire MERRA-2 period (including ATom). We confirm results from previous studies showing that the model ages are biased old compared to the observational estimates. However, we also show that this model bias is reduced in more recent years, which we interpret in terms of changes in the latitudinal distribution of SF6 emissions over the 2000s.

interhemispheric transport (IHT)↗

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

exhaust gases↗

Mariner IV Mission to Mars. Part I

This technical report is a series of individual papers documenting the Mariner-Mars project from its beginning in 1962 following the successful Mariner-Venus mission. Part I is pre-encounter data. It includes papers on the design, development, and testing of Mariner IV, as well as papers detailing methods of maintaining communication with and obtaining data from the spacecraft during flight, and expected results during encounter with Mars. Part 11, post-encounter data, to be published later, will consist of documentation of the events taking place during Mariner IV's encounter with Mars and thereafter. The Mariner-Mars mission, the culmination of an era of spacecraft development, has contributed much new technology to be used in future projects.

James, Jack N.↗

The Network Operations Control Center upgrade task: Lessons learned

This article synthesizes and describes the lessons learned from the Network Operations Control Center (NOCC) upgrade project, from the requirements phase through development and test and transfer. At the outset, the NOCC upgrade was being performed simultaneously with two other interfacing and dependent upgrades at the Signal Processing Center (SPC) and Ground Communications Facility (GCF), thereby adding a significant measure of complexity to the management and overall coordination of the development and transfer-to-operations (DTO) effort. Like other success stories, this project carried with it the traditional elements of top management support and exceptional dedication of cognizant personnel. Additionally, there were several NOCC-specific reasons for success, such as end-to-end system engineering, adoption of open-system architecture, thorough requirements management, and use of appropriate off-the-shelf technologies. On the other hand, there were several difficulties, such as ill-defined external interfaces, transition issues caused by new communications protocols, ambivalent use of two sets of policies and standards, and mistailoring of the new JPL management standard (due to the lack of practical guidelines). This article highlights the key lessons learned, as a means of constructive suggestions for the benefit of future projects.

Sherif, J. S.↗

ISS Solar Array Alpha Rotary Joint (SARJ) Bearing Failure and Recovery: Technical and Project Management Lessons Learned

The photovoltaic solar panels on the International Space Station (ISS) track the Sun through continuous rotating motion enabled by large bearings on the main truss called solar array alpha rotary joints (SARJs). In late 2007, shortly after installation, the starboard SARJ had become hard to turn and had to be shut down after exceeding drive current safety limits. The port SARJ, of the same design, had been working well for over 2 years. An exhaustive failure investigation ensued that included multiple extravehicular activities to collect information and samples for engineering forensics, detailed structural and thermal analyses, and a careful review of the build records. The ultimate root cause was determined to be kinematic design vulnerability coupled with inadequate lubrication, and manufacturing flaws; this was corroborated through ground tests, metallurgical studies, and modeling. A highly successful recovery plan was developed and implemented that included replacing worn and damaged components in orbit and applying space-compatible grease to improve lubrication. Beyond the technical aspects, however, lie several key programmatic lessons learned. These lessons, such as running ground tests to intentional failure to experimentally verify failure modes, are reviewed and discussed so they can be applied to future projects to avoid such problems.

DellaCorte, Christopher↗

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socioeconomic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Regional-scale risk models↗