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The New NASA Orbital Debris Mitigation Procedural Requirements and Standards

NASA has issued major updates to its principal orbital debris mitigation policy directive and standards. The new NASA Procedural Requirements for Limiting Orbital Debris (NPR 8715.6), with its supporting NASA Standard 8719.14, both refine earlier orbital debris mitigation documents and in some areas expand their applicability. Organizational and individual responsibilities along with general directives are set forth in NPR 8715.6. New requirements include routine conjunction assessments for all maneuverable NASA spacecraft in LEO and GEO, prompt notifications of intended or unintended debris generation, preparation and maintenance of formal end-of-mission plans, and disposal of vehicles in operation around the Moon and Mars and at the Earth-Sun Lagrangian points. NASA Standard 8719.14 replaces the 1995 NASA Safety Standard 1740.14 with no major new requirements but with several refinements and additions, some of which had already been adopted. Compliance with human casualty risk limitations from reentering debris will be calculated explicitly and not be expressed in terms of average debris casualty area. Moreover, the minimum kinetic energy threshold for potentially injurious reentering debris is set at 15 Joules. The overarching requirement for the disposal of GEO spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages is to ensure that the vehicles do not come within GEO + 200 km for at least 100 km after end of mission, rather than setting specific requirements for the disposal orbit. Spacecraft operating in or routinely transiting LEO must remain in the region for no more than 25 years after end of mission or 30 years after launch, whichever occurs sooner. A comprehensive new NASA handbook on orbital debris has also been prepared to provide background on the orbital debris environment and the related NASA mitigation requirements and standards.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗

Analysis of Hydrodynamic (Landau) Instability in Liquid-Propellant Combustion at Normal and Reduced Gravity

The burning of liquid propellants is a fundamental combustion problem that is applicable to various types of propulsion and energetic systems. The deflagration process is often rather complex, with vaporization and pyrolysis occurring at the liquid/gas interface and distributed combustion occurring either in the gas phase or in a spray. Nonetheless, there are realistic limiting cases in which combustion may be approximated by an overall reaction at the liquid/gas interface. In one such limit, the gas flame occurs under near-breakaway conditions, exerting little thermal or hydrodynamic influence on the burning propellant. In another such limit, distributed combustion occurs in an intrusive regime, the reaction zone lying closer to the liquid/gas interface than the length scale of any disturbance of interest. Finally, the liquid propellant may simply undergo exothermic decomposition at the surface without any significant distributed combustion, such as appears to occur in some types of HydroxylAmmonium Nitrate (HAN)-based liquid propellants at low pressures. Such limiting models have recently been formulated,thereby significantly generalizing earlier classical models that were originally introduced to study the hydrodynamic stability of a reactive liquid/gas interface. In all of these investigations, gravity appears explicitly and plays a significant role, along with surface tension, viscosity, and, in the more recent models, certain reaction-rate parameters associated with the pressure and temperature sensitivities of the reaction itself. In particular, these parameters determine the stability of the deflagration with respect to not only classical hydrodynamic disturbances, but also with respect to reactive/diffusive influences as well. Indeed, the inverse Froude number, representing the ratio of buoyant to inertial forces, appears explicitly in all of these models, and consequently, in the dispersion relation that determines the neutral stability boundaries beyond which steady, planar burning is unstable to nonsteady, and/or nonplanar (cellular) modes of burning. These instabilities thus lead to a number of interesting phenomena, such as the sloshing type of waves that have been observed in mixtures of HAN and TriEthanolAmmonium Nitrate (TEAN) with water. Although the Froude number was treated as an O(1) quantity in these studies, the limit of small inverse Froude number corresponding to the microgravity regime is increasingly of interest and can be treated explicitly, leading to various limiting forms of the models, the neutral stability boundaries, and, ultimately, the evolution equations that govern the nonlinear dynamics of the propagating reaction front. In the present work, we formally exploit this limiting parameter regime to compare some of the features of hydrodynamic instability of liquid-propellant combustion at reduced gravity with the same phenomenon at normal gravity.

Margolis, Stephen B.↗

Hydrodynamic Instability in an Extended Landau/Levich Model of Liquid-Propellant Combustion at Normal and Reduced Gravity

The classical Landau/Levich models of liquid-propellant combustion, despite their relative simplicity, serve as seminal examples that correctly describe the onset of hydrodynamic instability in reactive systems. Recently, these two separate models have been combined and extended to account for a dynamic dependence, absent in the original formulations, of the local burning rate on the local pressure and temperature fields. The resulting model admits an extremely rich variety of both hydrodynamic and reactive/diffusive instabilities that can be analyzed either numerically or analytically in various limiting parameter regimes. In the present work, a formal asymptotic analysis, based on the realistic smallness of the gas-to-liquid density ratio, is developed to investigate the combined effects of gravity and other parameters on the hydrodynamic instability of the propagating liquid/gas interface. In particular, an analytical expression is derived for the neutral stability boundary A(p)(k), where A(p) is the pressure sensitivity of the burning rate and k is the wavenumber of the disturbance. The results demonstrate explicitly the stabilizing effect of gravity on long-wave disturbances, the stabilizing effect of viscosity (both liquid and gas) and surface tension on short-wave perturbations, and the instability associated with intermediate wavenumbers for negative values of A(p). In the limiting case of weak gravity, it is shown that hydrodynamic instability in liquid-propellant combustion is a long-wave instability phenomenon, whereas at normal gravity, this instability is first manifested through O(1) wavenumber disturbances. it is also demonstrated that, in general, surface tension and the viscosity of both the liquid and gas phases each produce comparable stabilizing effects in the long-wavenumber regime, thereby providing important modifications to previous analyses in which one or more of these effects were neglected.

Margolis, S. B.↗

Hydrodynamic Instability in an Extended Landau/Levich Model of Liquid-Propellant Combustion at Normal and Reduced Gravity

The classical Landau/Levich models of liquid-propellant combustion, despite their relative simplicity, serve as seminal examples that correctly describe the onset of hydrodynamic instability in reactive systems. Recently, these two separate models have been combined and extended to account for a dynamic dependence, absent in the original formulations, of the local burning rate on the local pressure and temperature fields. The resulting model admits an extremely rich variety of both hydrodynamic and reactive/diffusive instabilities that can be analyzed either numerically or analytically in various limiting parameter regimes. In the present work, a formal asymptotic analysis, based on the realistic smallness of the gas-to-liquid density ratio, is developed to investigate the combined effects of gravity and other parameters on the hydrodynamic instability of the propagating liquid/gas interface. In particular, an analytical expression is derived for the neutral stability boundary A(sub p)(k), where A(sub p) is the pressure sensitivity of the burning rate and k is the wavenumber of the disturbance. The results demonstrate explicitly the stabilizing effect of gravity on long-wave disturbances, the stabilizing effect of viscosity (both liquid and gas) and surface tension on short-wave perturbations, and the instability associated with intermediate wavenumbers for critical negative values of A(sub p). In the limiting case of weak gravity, it is shown that hydrodynamic instability in liquid-propellant combustion is a long-wave instability phenomenon, whereas at normal gravity, this instability is first manifested through O(1) wavenumber disturbances. It is also demonstrated that, in general, surface tension and the viscosity of both the liquid and gas phases each produce comparable stabilizing effects in the large-wavenumber regime, thereby providing important modifications to previous analyses in which one or more of these effects were neglected.

Margolis, Stephen B.↗

Unified Models of Turbulence and Nonlinear Wave Evolution in the Extended Solar Corona and Solar Wind

The PI (Cranmer) and Co-I (A. van Ballegooijen) made significant progress toward the goal of building a "unified model" of the dominant physical processes responsible for the acceleration of the solar wind. The approach outlined in the original proposal comprised two complementary pieces: (1) to further investigate individual physical processes under realistic coronal and solar wind conditions, and (2) to extract the dominant physical effects from simulations and apply them to a one-dimensional and time-independent model of plasma heating and acceleration. The accomplishments in the report period are thus divided into these two categories: 1a. Focused Study of Kinetic MHD Turbulence. We have developed a model of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence in the extended solar corona that contains the effects of collisionless dissipation and anisotropic particle heating. A turbulent cascade is one possible way of generating small-scale fluctuations (easy to dissipate/heat) from a pre-existing population of low-frequency Alfven waves (difficult to dissipate/heat). We modeled the cascade as a combination of advection and diffusion in wavenumber space. The dominant spectral transfer occurs in the direction perpendicular to the background magnetic field. As expected from earlier models, this leads to a highly anisotropic fluctuation spectrum with a rapidly decaying tail in the parallel wavenumber direction. The wave power that decays to high enough frequencies to become ion cyclotron resonant depends on the relative strengths of advection and diffusion in the cascade. For the most realistic values of these parameters, though, there is insufficient power to heat protons and heavy ions. The dominant oblique waves undergo Landau damping, which implies strong parallel electron heating. We thus investigated the nonlinear evolution of the electron velocity distributions (VDFs) into parallel beams and discrete phase-space holes (similar to those seen in the terrestrial magnetosphere) which are an alternate means of heating protons via stochastic interactions similar to particle-particle collisions. 1b. Focused Study of the Multi-Mode Detailed Balance Formalism. The PI began to explore the feasibility of using the "weak turbulence," or detailed-balance theory of Tsytovich, Melrose, and others to encompass the relevant physics of the solar wind. This study did not go far, however, because if the "strong" MHD turbulence discussed above is a dominant player in the wind's acceleration region, this formalism is inherently not applicable to the corona. We will continue to study the various published approaches to the weak turbulence formalism, especially with an eye on ways to parameterize nonlinear wave reflection rates. 2. Building the Unified Model Code Architecture. We have begun developing the computational model of a time-steady open flux tube in the extended corona. The model will be "unified" in the sense that it will include (simultaneously for the first time) as many of the various proposed physical processes as possible, all on equal footing. To retain this generality, we have formulated the problem in two interconnected parts: a completely kinetic model for the particles, using the Monte Carlo approach, and a finite-difference approach for the self-consistent fluctuation spectra. The two codes are run sequentially and iteratively until complete consistency is achieved. The current version of the Monte Carlo code incorporates gravity, the zero-current electric field, magnetic mirroring, and collisions. The fluctuation code incorporates WKJ3 wave action conservation and the cascade/dissipation processes discussed above. The codes are being run for various test problems with known solutions. Planned additions to the codes include prescriptions for nonlinear wave steepening, kinetic velocity-space diffusion, and multi-mode coupling (including reflection and refraction).

Cranmer, Steven R.↗

Space Radiation Transport Code Development: 3DHZETRN

The space radiation transport code, HZETRN, has been used extensively for research, vehicle design optimization, risk analysis, and related applications. One of the simplifying features of the HZETRN transport formalism is the straight-ahead approximation, wherein all particles are assumed to travel along a common axis. This reduces the governing equation to one spatial dimension allowing enormous simplification and highly efficient computational procedures to be implemented. Despite the physical simplifications, the HZETRN code is widely used for space applications and has been found to agree well with fully 3D Monte Carlo simulations in many circumstances. Recent work has focused on the development of 3D transport corrections for neutrons and light ions (Z < 2) for which the straight-ahead approximation is known to be less accurate. Within the development of 3D corrections, well-defined convergence criteria have been considered, allowing approximation errors at each stage in model development to be quantified. The present level of development assumes the neutron cross sections have an isotropic component treated within N explicit angular directions and a forward component represented by the straight-ahead approximation. The N = 1 solution refers to the straight-ahead treatment, while N = 2 represents the bi-directional model in current use for engineering design. The figure below shows neutrons, protons, and alphas for various values of N at locations in an aluminum sphere exposed to a solar particle event (SPE) spectrum. The neutron fluence converges quickly in simple geometry with N > 14 directions. The improved code, 3DHZETRN, transports neutrons, light ions, and heavy ions under space-like boundary conditions through general geometry while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. A brief overview of the 3D transport formalism for neutrons and light ions is given, and extensive benchmarking results with the Monte Carlo codes Geant4, FLUKA, and PHITS are provided for a variety of boundary conditions and geometries. Improvements provided by the 3D corrections are made clear in the comparisons. Developments needed to connect 3DHZETRN to vehicle design and optimization studies will be discussed. Future theoretical development will relax the forward plus isotropic interaction assumption to more general angular dependence.

Wilson, John W.↗

Energy Transfer in Rotating Turbulence

The influence or rotation on the spectral energy transfer of homogeneous turbulence is investigated in this paper. Given the fact that linear dynamics, e.g. the inertial waves regime tackled in an RDT (Rapid Distortion Theory) fashion, cannot Affect st homogeneous isotropic turbulent flow, the study of nonlinear dynamics is of prime importance in the case of rotating flows. Previous theoretical (including both weakly nonlinear and EDQNM theories), experimental and DNS (Direct Numerical Simulation) results are gathered here and compared in order to give a self-consistent picture of the nonlinear effects of rotation on tile turbulence. The inhibition of the energy cascade, which is linked to a reduction of the dissipation rate, is shown to be related to a damping due to rotation of the energy transfer. A model for this effect is quantified by a model equation for the derivative-skewness factor, which only involves a micro-Rossby number Ro(sup omega) = omega'/(2(OMEGA))-ratio of rms vorticity and background vorticity as the relevant rotation parameter, in accordance with DNS and EDQNM results fit addition, anisotropy is shown also to develop through nonlinear interactions modified by rotation, in an intermediate range of Rossby numbers (Ro(omega) = (omega)' and Ro(omega)w greater than 1), which is characterized by a marco-Rossby number Ro(sup L) less than 1 and Ro(omega) greater than 1 which is characterized by a macro-Rossby number based on an integral lengthscale L and the micro-Rossby number previously defined. This anisotropy is mainly an angular drain of spectral energy which tends to concentrate energy in tile wave-plane normal to the rotation axis, which is exactly both the slow and the two-dimensional manifold. In Addition, a polarization of the energy distribution in this slow 2D manifold enhances horizontal (normal to the rotation axis) velocity components, and underlies the anisotropic structure of the integral lengthscales. Finally is demonstrated the ability of a generalized EDQNM (Eddy Damped Quasi-Normal Markovian) model to predict the underlying spectral transfer structure and all the subsequent developments of classic anisotropy indicators in physical space, when compared to recent LES results. Even if the applications mainly concern developed strong turbulence, a particular emphasis is given to the strong formal analogy of this EDQNM2 model with recent weakly nonlinear approaches to wave-turbulence.

Cambon, Claude↗

Validating a large geophysical data set: Experiences with satellite-derived cloud parameters

We are validating the global cloud parameters derived from the satellite-borne HIRS2 and MSU atmospheric sounding instrument measurements, and are using the analysis of these data as one prototype for studying large geophysical data sets in general. The HIRS2/MSU data set contains a total of 40 physical parameters, filling 25 MB/day; raw HIRS2/MSU data are available for a period exceeding 10 years. Validation involves developing a quantitative sense for the physical meaning of the derived parameters over the range of environmental conditions sampled. This is accomplished by comparing the spatial and temporal distributions of the derived quantities with similar measurements made using other techniques, and with model results. The data handling needed for this work is possible only with the help of a suite of interactive graphical and numerical analysis tools. Level 3 (gridded) data is the common form in which large data sets of this type are distributed for scientific analysis. We find that Level 3 data is inadequate for the data comparisons required for validation. Level 2 data (individual measurements in geophysical units) is needed. A sampling problem arises when individual measurements, which are not uniformly distributed in space or time, are used for the comparisons. Standard 'interpolation' methods involve fitting the measurements for each data set to surfaces, which are then compared. We are experimenting with formal criteria for selecting geographical regions, based upon the spatial frequency and variability of measurements, that allow us to quantify the uncertainty due to sampling. As part of this project, we are also dealing with ways to keep track of constraints placed on the output by assumptions made in the computer code. The need to work with Level 2 data introduces a number of other data handling issues, such as accessing data files across machine types, meeting large data storage requirements, accessing other validated data sets, processing speed and throughput for interactive graphical work, and problems relating to graphical interfaces.

Kahn, Ralph↗

Technical Challenges of Drilling on Mars

In the last year, NASA's Mars science advisory committee (MEPAG: Mars Exploration Payload Advisory Group) has formally recommended that deep drilling be undertaken as a priority investigation to meet astrobiology and geology goals. This proposed new dimension in Mars exploration has come about for several reasons. Firstly, geophysical models of the martian subsurface environment indicate that we may well find liquid water (in the form of brines) under ground-ice at depths of several kilometers near the equator. On Earth we invariably find life forms associated with any environmental niche that supports liquid water. New data from the Mars Global Surveyor have shown that the most recent volcanism on Mars is very young so we cannot rule out contemporary volcanism -- in which case subsurface temperatures consistent with having water in its liquid phase may be found at relatively shallow depths. Secondly, in recent decades we have learned to our surprise that the Earth's subsurface (microbial) biosphere extends to depths of many kilometers and this discovery provides the basis for planning to explore the martian subsurface in search of ancient or even extant microbial life forms. We know (from Viking measurements) that all the biogenic elements (C, H, O, N, P, S) are available on Mars. What we therefore hope to learn is whether or not the evolution of life is inevitable given the necessary ingredients and, by implication, whether the Universe may be teeming with life. The feasibility of drilling deep into the surface of Mars has been the subject of increasing attention within NASA (and more recently among some of its international partners) for several years and this led to a broad-based feasibility study carried out by the Los Alamos National Laboratory and, subsequently, to the development of several hardware prototypes. This paper is intended to provide a general survey of that activity.

Briggs, Geoffrey↗

Future Homes in Space: Development of Concepts for Exploration Space Habitats

NASA’s Artemis campaign seeks to return humans to the moon and establish a sustained presence on the lunar surface. This session will emphasize how habitation capabilities on the moon and in cislunar space can potentially contribute to the sustainability objectives of Artemis. Habitable elements represent opportunities to enable longer duration stays, increase the number of crew members present, enhance science and utilization activities, drive technology development for future Mars exploration, perform analog missions, and fuel economic opportunities for US industry. Panelists include Paul Kessler (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, deputy lead for lunar surface habitation); Andrew Choate (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Mars habitation lead); Krystofer Dudzinski (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, a space architect within the MSFC Advanced Concepts Office); and Larry Toups (retired from NASA Johnson Space Center, currently an adjunct professor at University of Houston in space architecture). The panel is moderated by Tracie Prater (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Habitation Systems Development Office). The panel will begin with an overview of the history of habitation concepts and an academic perspective on general considerations in space habitat design (Larry Toups). Paul Kessler and Andrew Choate will introduce NASA’s principle of “architecting from the right” to help define objectives for Artemis missions, needs/characteristics, use cases, and functions (as published in the agency’s Architecture Definition Document) and provide perspective on how this principle informs habitation concept development work. NASA panelists will discuss key engineering challenges identified for developing, deploying, and operating habitable assets on the lunar surface and/or in deep space. These may include dust mitigation, outfitting of inflatable softgoods (for concepts which may use softgoods as a primary structural material), survival in lunar darkness, human health and performance considerations, maintenance/repair/sparing, and autonomy. These identified challenges represent risks for habitation systems development and relate closely to capability gaps identified by the agency. While the work of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center’s habitation development office is primarily focused on habitats which are launched from earth pre-integrated (referred to as Class I in the framework previously developed by NASA space architects Kennedy/Cohen) or launched from earth and deployed at the point of use (Class II), there is also extensive work in NASA, academia, and companies on constructed habitats, which would be built on a planetary surface using indigenous resources (Class III habitats). Panelist Krystopher Dudzinski will discuss potential evolutionary pathways from Class I and Class II habitats to Class III habitats, unique and common architectural challenges within each habitat class, and key gaps in implementing Class III habitats from an architectural perspective. NASA panelists and the moderator will also provide an overview of partnership opportunities and avenues for further engagement to advance habitation systems for the SpaceCom audience. NASA is currently developing notional concepts for a lunar surface habitat and Mars transit habitat, which will be discussed during this panel session and used as examples. These concepts represent options for habitation system design and are a point of departure. They do not represent a final plan or formal recommendation on the part of the agency. Based on the most recent analysis cycle, NASA’s lunar surface habitat (SH) concept nominally supports two crew members for 30 days, with the capacity to support four crew during a surge period where crew will swap between the SH and another surface asset, such as a pressurized rover. This example design has a metallic airlock for ingress/egress and the upper portion is an inflatable material system which serves as the habitation module. The notional interior of the habitat is a three-deck layout/configuration which supports all crew mission functions, including exercise, stowage, extravehicular activity (EVA), sleep, hygiene waste collection, maintenance and repair, and meal preparation. Under analysis assumptions for habitation, the Mars Transit Habitat (TH) concept would support four crew on an up to 1,200 day Mars mission. One option for the concept is to initially dock Transit Habitat at Gateway, where it can be used to increase the duration of crew stays in cislunar space and perform shakedown and analog missions prior to a Mars departure. One challenge in longer duration missions which involve both surface exploration and transit is understanding crew adaptation when transitioning between partial gravity and microgravity environments. TH at Gateway offers an opportunity to study this transition and in doing so reduce risks associated with future Mars exploration. Like lunar SH, the most recent analysis cycle concept of a Mars TH is a hybrid structure design, with a metallic section supporting EVAs, axial/radial docking, and Safe Haven capabilities, and an inflatable softgoods structure for the primary habitation function. Interior layouts to optimize crew usability and livability are currently under trade. The panel will include presentation material, but also seeks to engage the audience in a highly interactive conversation regarding the potential role for habitation in future exploration initiatives. Potential topics for discussion include the influence of the crew experience on habitation systems design and livability/usability considerations, the benefits of space habitation development in terrestrial applications, and challenges and opportunities in “feeding forward” lunar surface habitation systems development to Mars exploration.

space habitats↗

Orbital Debris Ontology, Terminology, and Knowledge Modeling

The looming threat orbital debris poses to assets in orbit demands solutions. As the orbital population grows, so does this hazard, but so does the sea of data. The problem is also an opportunity for interdisciplinary innovation and cooperation. This paper focuses on the data and information management aspect of developing solutions for a sustainable and safe orbital space environment. The corresponding author’s in-progress work to develop an orbital debris domain ontology is summarized in order to discuss knowledge modeling for this domain. Methodological approaches of this effort can also contribute to standards efforts and address terminological and policy questions. Leveraging the growing volumes of orbital debris and space situational awareness (SSA) data will create a more complete picture of the orbital space environment. Part of the solution will be: consistent and correct data interpretation, sharing orbital debris and SSA data in one form or another, terminology development & harmonization, and knowledge or domain modeling. To facilitate this, [Rovetto, 2015/16] discussed ontology development for the orbital debris domain. This paper lists concepts from that paper, and subsequently developed concepts [2-9]. Ontology engineering is an interdisciplinary field related to knowledge representation and reasoning in artificial intelligence, semantic technologies and the so-called semantic web. An ontology is effectively a computable and semantically rich terminology that presents a knowledge or domain model for a topic area. Expressions of knowledge or assertions are stored using formally defined term. This knowledge base is reasoned over to yield answers to queries, among other things. Ontologies have been developed in knowledge-based projects across various disciplines, and used for such things as search engines, chatbots, enterprise knowledge graphs, etc. Ontologies support: interoperability, automated reasoning, data sharing and integration, data search and retrieval, and communicating the meaning of data. The Orbital Debris Ontology (ODO), and related ontologies [Rovetto & Kelso 2016] [Rovetto 2016, 2017], were proposed to help achieve this. ODO, for instance, is intended as a domain ontology that can be used across federated databases, offering an explicitly specified set of concepts describing the orbital debris domain. Its meaning-rich taxonomy will provide a sharable semantics for orbital debris data to, in part, consistently communicate the meaning of data to both humans and machines, and tag data elements in space object catalogs to help afford inference tasks, decision support, knowledge discovery, and information integration. ODO and the SSA ontology (SSAO) is part of the overall Orbital Space Domain Ontology concept, which is conceived as a broader domain reference ontology. It aims to provide a knowledge representation structure of the orbital space environment, a common semantic model, and develop a sharable terminology. Collectively this will provide common meaning for datasets, a high-level taxonomy or classification for orbital space objects, and thus means to characterize space objects. Ongoing efforts have included using visualizations, R, JSON-LD, and contemporary semantic technologies. Potential applications and interdisciplinary partnerships include web-based platforms, web apps, visualizations, and academia projects. Community input and participation may yield a more widely understood domain model as well as facilitate terminological standards. For example, the proposed conceptual, terminological and ontological analysis may contribute to such efforts as the Space Debris Mitigation Requirements in the International Standards Organization by developing more precise, consistent and coherent terms and definitions. Projects that seek to develop in-house ontologies can use ODO and related ontologies as domain reference ontologies. This paper was developed independent of author affiliations. Readers are encouraged to contact corresponding author(1) with general interest and potential opportunities to support or realize the described project.

Robert J. Rovetto↗

Selection and Assessment of Predictions of the Mars Pathfinder Landing Site

The successful landing of the Mars Pathfinder spacecraft on Mars allows the review of the process of selecting the landing site and assessing predictions made for the site based on Viking and Earth-based data. Selection of the landing site for Mars Pathfinder was a two-phase process. The first phase took place from October 1993 to June 1994 and involved: initial identification of engineering constraints, definition of environmental conditions at the site for spacecraft design, and evaluation of the scientific potential of different landing sites. This phase culminated with the first "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop", held at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas on April 18-19, 1994, in which suggested approaches and landing sites were solicited from the entire scientific community. A preliminary site was selected by the project for design purposes in June 1994. The second phase took place from July 1994 to March 1996 and involved: developing criteria for evaluating site safety using images and remote sensing data, testing of the spacecraft and landing subsystems (with design improvements) to establish quantitative engineering constraints on landing site characteristics, evaluating all potential landing sites on Mars, and certification of the site by the project. This phase included a second open workshop, "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop II: Characteristics of the Ares Vallis Region and Field Trips in the Channeled Scabland, Washington" held in Spokane and Moses Lake September 24-30, 1995 and formal acceptance of the site by NASA Headquarters. Engineering constraints on Pathfinder landing sites were developed from the initial design of the spacecraft and the entry, descent and landing scenario. The site must be within 5 degrees of the subsolar latitude at the time of landing (15N for maximum solar power and flexible communications with Earth. It also must be below 0 km elevation to enable enough time for the parachute to bring the lander to the proper terminal velocity for landing. The entire landing ellipse, which is 70 km by 200 km due to navigational, ephemeris and atmospheric uncertainties, must be free of steep slopes, scarps and obvious hazards in Viking orbiter images, have acceptable radar reflectivity, moderate rock abundances and have little or no dust. Scientific considerations of the Mars Pathfinder payload and mission indicate that analyses of "grab bag" samples at the mouths of outflow channels can offer a first order assessment of a variety of rock types on Mars. Highland sites offer the advantage of in situ analysis of ancient rocks on Mars that record crustal differentiation and the nature of the early environment. Dark gray sites offer the potential of analyzing unweathered and unoxidized materials. Following a general assessment of the safety of different sites, a preliminary selection of a "grab bag" site was made. This site, Ares Vallis, is near the mouth of an outflow channel that may contain ancient Noachian terrain, Hesperian ridged plains, and reworked channel materials. All potential landing sites on Mars that met basic safety criteria were analyzed in detail. Sites (100 by 200 km target ellipses) were considered safe if they were below 0 km elevation, were free of obvious hazards (high relief surface features) in high-resolution (< 50 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and had acceptable reflectivity and roughness at radar wavelengths, high thermal inertia, moderate rock abundance, low red to violet ratio, and low albedo. Only 4 sites on Mars met all the above criteria, which included 1995 opposition 3.5 cm delay-Doppler radar data. Complete data were evaluated for 7 sites and the Viking landing sites for comparison for all the above criteria as well as crater abundance, hill and mesa abundance, slopes over meter to kilometer scales, low altitude winds (from global circulation models and slopes), the size-frequency distribution of large rocks, as well as rover trafficability and science potential. Discussion of potential hazards at Ares Vallis using a variety of data sets (including radar) at a second open workshop, indicated this site cannot be shown to be any more hazardous than the Viking landing sites. Field trips to the Channeled Scabland and the Ephrata Fan, analogs for Ares Vallis and the landing site, respectively, provided valuable insight into possible geologic processes and potential surface characteristics. Three sites met all the data requirements and safety criteria for landing Pathfinder. Ares Vallis was selected by the project because it appeared acceptably safe (although it appeared to have greater rock abundances than other sites, its elevation was likely the best known) and offered the prospect of analyzing a variety of rock types expected to be deposited by catastrophic floods, which would enable addressing first-order scientific questions such as differentiation of the crust, the development of weathering products, and the nature of the early martian environment and its subsequent evolution. The selection was reviewed by an external board at a number of meetings and accepted, and the site was approved by NASA Headquarters. Data gathered by the Pathfinder lander' and rover provides the opportunity to test the predictions made for the site in the selection process based on remote observations from Earth, orbit, and the surface. The discussion below is taken from Golombek et al. to which the reader is referred for a more complete discussion and a complete list of references, which are omitted here for brevity. Many characteristics of the landing site are consistent with its being shaped and deposited by the Ares and Tiu catastrophic floods. The rocky surface is consistent a depositional plain comprising semi-rounded pebbles, cobbles and tabular boulders (some of which appear imbricated and/or inclined in the direction of flow) that appear similar to depositional plains in terrestrial catastrophic floods. The Twin Peaks appear to be streamlined hills in lander images, which is consistent with interpretations of larger hills in Viking orbiter images of the region that suggest the lander is on the flank of a broad, gentle ridge trending northeast from Twin Peaks. This ridge, which is the rise to the north of the lander, is aligned in the downstream direction from the Ares and Tiu Valles floods, and may be a debris tail deposited in the wake of the Twin Peaks. Channels visible throughout the scene may be a result of late stage drainage. As predicted by delay-Doppler radar measurements and tracking results, the average elevation of the center of the site was about the same as Viking Lander I relative to the 6.1 mbar geoid. The Doppler tracking and two-way ranging estimate for the elevation of the spacecraft is only 45 in lower than the Viking I Lander and within 100 in of that expected, which is within the uncertainties of the measurements. After landing, surface pressures and winds (5-10 m/s) were found to be similar to expectations based on Viking data, although temperatures were about 10 K warmer. The temperature profile below 50 km was also roughly 20 K warmer. As a result, predicted densities were 5% higher near the surface and up to 40% lower at 50 km but within the entry, descent and landing design margins. The populations of craters and small hills and the slopes of the hills measured in high-resolution (38 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and the radar derived slopes of the landing site are all consistent with observations of these properties in the lander images. A rocky surface was expected from Viking Infra-Red Thermal Mapper (IRTM) observations and comparisons with the Viking landing sites. The observed cumulative fraction of area covered by rocks with diameters greater than 3 cm and heights greater than 0.5 in (potentially hazardous to landing) at Ares is similar to that predicted by IRTM observations and models of Viking lander and Earth analog rock size-frequency distributions. The IRTM prediction postulated an effective thermal inertia of 30 (10(exp -3) cgs units - cal/cubic cm/s(exp 0.5)/K) for the rock population, but we obtain a slightly different effective thermal inertia for the actual rock population. The validity of interpretations of radar echoes prior to landing are supported by a simple radar echo model, an estimate of the reflectivity of the soil from its bulk density, and the fraction of area covered by rocks. In the calculations, the soil produces the quasi-specular echo and the rocks produce the diffuse echo. The derived quasispecular cross section is comparable to the cross-sections and reflectivities reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. The model yields a diffuse echo that is modestly larger than the polarized diffuse echo reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. At 12.5-cm wavelength, similar rock populations at Ares and the Viking I site were expected because the diffuse echoes are comparable, but the large normal reflectivities suggests that bulk densities of the soils at depth are greater than those at the surface. We also obtain a fine-component inertia near 8.4 which agrees with the fine-component inertia of 8.7 (in 10(exp -3) cgs units) estimated from thermal observations from orbit by the IRTM; for this estimate, we used a bulk thermal inertia of 10.4 for the landing site, an effective thermal inertia near 40 (10(exp -3) cgs units) for the rock population, and a graphical representation of Kieffer's model. Color and albedo data for Ares suggested surfaces of materials at Ares Vallis would be relatively dust free or unweathered prior to landing compared with the materials at the Viking landing sites. This suggestion is supported by the abundance of relatively dark-gray rocks at Ares and their relative rarity at the Viking landing sites, where rocks are commonly coated with bright red dust. Finally, the 40 km long Ephrata Fan of the Channeled Scabland in Washington state, which was deposited where c

Golombek, M. P.↗