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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Quantitative modeling of ICRF antennas with integrated time domain RF sheath and plasma physics

Significant efforts have been made to quantitatively benchmark the sheath sub-grid model used in our time-domain simulations of plasma-immersed antenna near fields, which includes highly detailed three-dimensional geometry, the presence of the slow wave, and the non-linear evolution of the sheath potential. We present both our quantitative benchmarking strategy, and results for the ITER antenna configuration, including detailed maps of electric field, and sheath potential along the entire antenna structure. Our method is based upon a time-domain linear plasma model, using the finite-difference electromagnetic Vorpal/Vsim software. This model has been augmented with a non-linear rf-sheath sub-grid model, which provides a self-consistent boundary condition for plasma current where it exists in proximity to metallic surfaces. Very early, this algorithm was designed and demonstrated to work on very complicated three-dimensional geometry, derived from CAD or other complex description of actual hardware, including ITER antennas. Initial work with the simulation model has also provided a confirmation of the existence of propagating slow waves in the low density edge region, which can significantly impact the strength of the rf-sheath potential, which is thought to contribute to impurity generation. Our sheath algorithm is based upon per-point lumped-circuit parameters for which we have estimates and general understanding, but which allow for some tuning and fitting. We are now engaged in a careful benchmarking of the algorithm against known analytic models and existing computational techniques to insure that the predictions of rf-sheath voltage are quantitatively consistent and believable, especially where slow waves share in the field with the fast wave. Currently in progress, an addition to the plasma force response accounting for the sheath potential, should enable the modeling of sheath plasma waves, a predicted additional root to the dispersion, existing at the plasma-metal interface. Our model is presently restricted to plasma in the vicinity of metallic (highly conducting) surfaces, however we report on a new effort to include thin and thick dielectric (poorly conducting) surfaces, which are of interest to both fusion devices and to industrial plasmas, where dielectric, or dielectric-coated vessels and geometry are heavily used.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Schottky Anomalies in the Low-Temperature Specific Heat of YBa{sub 2}Cu{sub 3}O{sub y} HTSC

The evolution of the Schottky anomalies in the temperature dependence of the specific heat (in the temperature range T = 2–10 K and the magnetic field range H = 0–9 T) of polycrystalline YBa{sub 2}Cu{sub 3}O{sub y} HTSCs is studied when the oxygen content in coarse-crystalline samples changes and when the degree of structural disordering in optimally doped fine-crystalline samples of the same compound changes. The number of paramagnetic centers with uncompensated spin moments, which generate the Schottky anomalies, and the splitting of the lower energy levels are estimated. A correlation between these parameters and both the number of oxygen vacancies in chain planes and the method of oxygen ordering in chains is found. The experimental data are compared with the results of studying the magnetic susceptibility at T > T{sub c} in the same samples. Based on this comparison, we can conclude that the nature of the Schottky centers is related to the formation of paramagnetic centers at breaks in the Cu1–O4 copper–oxygen chains in the basal planes of the crystal structure.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable Predictive And Risk Technologies

The research involves developing scalable technologies for risk-informed predictive analytics to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop technologies to scale risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms across different plant assets at the plant site and across the nuclear fleet. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation using plant operation data 2. Federated and Transfer learning model 3. Feature group based Multi-kernel SVM 4. Three state markov model

Manjunatha, KoushikAraseethota↗
DOE OSTI2016

Spatially resolved X-ray emission measurements of the residual velocity during the stagnation phase of inertial confinement fusion implosion experiments

A technique for measuring residual motion during the stagnation phase of an indirectly driven inertial confinement experiment has been implemented. This method infers a velocity from spatially and temporally resolved images of the X-ray emission from two orthogonal lines of sight. This work investigates the accuracy of recovering spatially resolved velocities from the X-ray emission data. A detailed analytical and numerical modeling of the X-ray emission measurement shows that the accuracy of this method increases as the displacement that results from a residual velocity increase. For the typical experimental configuration, signal-to-noise ratios, and duration of X-ray emission, it is estimated that the fractional error in the inferred velocity rises above 50% as the velocity of emission falls below 24 μm/ns. By inputting measured parameters into this model, error estimates of the residual velocity as inferred from the X-ray emission measurements are now able to be generated for experimental data. Details of this analysis are presented for an implosion experiment conducted with an unintentional radiation flux asymmetry. The analysis shows a bright localized region of emission that moves through the larger emitting volume at a relatively higher velocity towards the location of the imposed flux deficit. This technique allows for the possibility of spatially resolving velocity flows within the so-called central hot spot of an implosion. This information would help to refine our interpretation of the thermal temperature inferred from the neutron time of flight detectors and the effect of localized hydrodynamic instabilities during the stagnation phase. Across several experiments, along a single line of sight, the average difference in magnitude and direction of the measured residual velocity as inferred from the X-ray and neutron time of flight detectors was found to be ∼13 μm/ns and ∼14°, respectively.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Cluster Abundance using Simulation-Based Inference

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological constraints from a simplified galaxy cluster observation analysis. Using data generated from the Quijote simulation suite and analytical models, we train a machine learning algorithm to learn the probability function between cosmological parameters and the possible galaxy cluster observables. The posterior distribution of the cosmological parameters at a given observation is then obtained by sampling the predictions from the trained algorithm. Our results show that the SBI method can successfully recover the truth values of the cosmological parameters within the 2σ limit for this simplified galaxy cluster analysis, and acquires similar posterior constraints obtained with a likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the current state-of the-art method used in similar cosmological studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibrating Synchronous-Generator-Interfaced DG Models in Microgrids Using Multiple Event Data

Microgrids, consisting of distributed generators (DGs), loads, and energy storage systems, play an important role in future smart grids. In order to evaluate how microgrids operate and their dynamic response, it is necessary to develop accurate dynamic models of DGs in microgrids. This paper proposes a systematic method to calibrate synchronous-generator-interfaced DG models. Challenges associated with model validation in microgrids are analyzed. Underlying parameters are categorized into two groups, i.e., the steady-state parameters and time constants, which are estimated in two successive stages using multiple event data. This methodology ensures that the validated model with the estimated parameters are applicable for all events. A modified unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to deal with the cases in which measurement of power angle is unavailable. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using field test data of a 2.6 MVA diesel generator in a real microgrid.

Wang, Zhiwen↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗
DOE OSTI2017

Toward Development of a Stochastic Wake Model: Validation Using LES and Turbine Loads

Wind turbines within an array do not experience free-stream undisturbed flow fields. Rather, the flow fields on internal turbines are influenced by wakes generated by upwind unit and exhibit different dynamic characteristics relative to the free stream. The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standard 61400-1 for the design of wind turbines only considers a deterministic wake model for the design of a wind plant. This study is focused on the development of a stochastic model for waked wind fields. First, high-fidelity physics-based waked wind velocity fields are generated using Large-Eddy Simulation (LES). Stochastic characteristics of these LES waked wind velocity field, including mean and turbulence components, are analyzed. Wake-related mean and turbulence field-related parameters are then estimated for use with a stochastic model, using Multivariate Multiple Linear Regression (MMLR) with the LES data. To validate the simulated wind fields based on the stochastic model, wind turbine tower and blade loads are generated using aeroelastic simulation for utility-scale wind turbine models and compared with those based directly on the LES inflow. The study’s overall objective is to offer efficient and validated stochastic approaches that are computationally tractable for assessing the performance and loads of turbines operating in wakes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Discovering the Unknowns: A First Step

This article aims at discovering the unknown variables in the system through data analysis. The main idea is to use the time of data collection as a surrogate variable and try to identify the unknown variables by modeling gradual and sudden changes in the data. We use Gaussian process modeling and a sparse representation of the sudden changes to efficiently estimate the large number of parameters in the proposed statistical model. The method is tested on a realistic dataset generated using a one-dimensional implementation of a Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) simulation model, and encouraging results are obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting

The Method of Analogues (MOA) has gained popularity in the past decade for infectious disease forecasting due to its non-parametric nature. In MOA, the local behavior observed in a time series is matched to the local behaviors of several historical time series. The known values that directly follow the historical time series that best match the observed time series are used to calculate a forecast. This non-parametric approach leverages historical trends to produce forecasts without extensive parameterization, making it highly adaptable. However, MOA is limited in scenarios where historical data is sparse. This limitation was particularly evident during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, where the emerging global epidemic had little-to-no historical data. In this work, we propose a new method inspired by MOA, called the Synthetic Method of Analogues (sMOA). sMOA replaces historical disease data with a library of synthetic data that describe a broad range of possible disease trends. This model circumvents the need to estimate explicit parameter values by instead matching segments of ongoing time series data to a comprehensive library of synthetically generated segments of time series data. We demonstrate that sMOA has competitive performance with state-of-the-art infectious disease forecasting models, out-performing 78% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Mean Absolute Error and 76% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Weighted Interval Score. Additionally, we introduce a novel uncertainty quantification methodology designed for the onset of emerging epidemics. Developing versatile approaches that do not rely on historical data and can maintain high accuracy in the face of novel pandemics is critical for enhancing public health decision-making and strengthening preparedness for future outbreaks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

System and method for using engine efficiency in predictive maintenance of a power generator

Methods, systems and apparatuses for early fault detection of a power generator are provided. An alternator output power parameter is received and a fuel flow input measurement is received. An estimated engine efficiency value is determined in response to the alternator output power parameter and the fuel flow input measurement. The estimated engine efficiency value may be transmitted to a monitoring device.

Kallhoff, Dustin Wayne↗
DOE OSTI2016

Battery Pack Life Estimation through Cell Degradation Data and Pack Thermal Modeling for BAS+ Li-Ion Batteries. Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-12-489

Battery Life estimation is one of the key inputs required for Hybrid applications for all GM Hybrid/EV/EREV/PHEV programs. For each Hybrid vehicle program, GM has instituted multi-parameter Design of Experiments generating test data at Cell level and also Pack level on a reduced basis. Based on experience, generating test data on a pack level is found to be very expensive, resource intensive and sometimes less reliable. The proposed collaborative project will focus on a methodology to estimate Battery life based on cell degradation data combined with pack thermal modeling. NREL has previously developed cell-level battery aging models and pack-level thermal/electrical network models, though these models are currently not integrated. When coupled together, the models are expected to describe pack-level thermal and aging response of individual cells. GM and NREL will use data collected for GM's Bas+ battery system for evaluation of the proposed methodology and assess to what degree these models can replace pack-level aging experiments in the future.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning robust parameter inference and density reconstruction in flyer plate impact experiments

Estimating physical parameters or material properties from experimental observations is a common objective in many areas of physics and material science. In many experiments, especially in shock physics, radiography is the primary means of observing the system of interest. However, radiography does not provide direct access to key state variables, such as density, which prevents the application of traditional parameter estimation approaches. Here we focus on flyer plate impact experiments on porous materials, and resolving the underlying parameterized equation of state (EoS) and crush porosity model parameters given radiographic observation(s). We use machine learning as a tool to demonstrate with high confidence that using only high impact velocity data does not provide sufficient information to accurately infer both EoS and crush model parameters, even with fully resolved density fields or a dynamic sequence of images. We thus propose an observable data set consisting of low and high impact velocity experiments/simulations that capture different regimes of compaction and shock propagation, and proceed to introduce a generative machine learning approach which produces a posterior distribution of physical parameters directly from radiographs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in estimating parameters from simulated flyer plate impact experiments, and show that the obtained estimates of EoS and crush model parameters can then be used in hydrodynamic simulations to obtain accurate and physically admissible density reconstructions. Finally, we examine the robustness of the approach to model mismatches, and find that the learned approach can provide useful parameter estimates in the presence of out-of-distribution radiographic noise and previously unseen physics, thereby promoting a potential breakthrough in estimating material properties from experimental radiographic images.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Chemical Looping Combustion Sensitivity Analyses: CLOU Concepts

The objective of the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) effort described in this report is to generate a reference-CLOU power plant performance and cost screening assessment and associated sensitivity analyses. To do this, a review of the CLOU literature was first performed to establish a complete design basis for a reference-CLOU power plant. While complete design-basis information is not available for any CLOU oxygen carrier, a representative design basis was compiled from a variety of literature sources. The design basis was then applied to generate reference-CLOU power plant material and energy balances, the unique CLOU process equipment was approximately sized and specified, equipment cost estimates were developed, and total power plant performance, capital investment, and cost of electricity (COE) estimates were compiled. Major performance and cost sensitivity parameters were identified, and performance and cost sensitivity analyses were performed. The results are these analyses relate not only the performance and cost potential of CLOU power generation, but also provide guidance to CLOU oxygen carrier and process researchers and developers.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Constriction model of actomyosin ring for cytokinesis by fission yeast using a two-state sliding filament mechanism

We developed a model describing the structure and contractile mechanism of the actomyosin ring in fission yeast, Schizosaccharomyces pombe. The proposed ring includes actin, myosin, and α-actinin, and is organized into a structure similar to that of muscle sarcomeres. This structure justifies the use of the sliding-filament mechanism developed by Huxley and Hill, but it is probably less organized relative to that of muscle sarcomeres. Ring contraction tension was generated via the same fundamental mechanism used to generate muscle tension, but some physicochemical parameters were adjusted to be consistent with the proposed ring structure. Simulations allowed an estimate of ring constriction tension that reproduced the observed ring constriction velocity using a physiologically possible, self-consistent set of parameters. Proposed molecular-level properties responsible for the thousand-fold slower constriction velocity of the ring relative to that of muscle sarcomeres include fewer myosin molecules involved, a less organized contractile configuration, a low α-actinin concentration, and a high resistance membrane tension. Ring constriction velocity is demonstrated as an exponential function of time despite a near linear appearance. We proposed a hypothesis to explain why excess myosin heads inhibit constriction velocity rather than enhance it. The model revealed how myosin concentration and elastic resistance tension are balanced during cytokinesis in S. pombe.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantification of MagLIF Morphology using the Mallat Scattering Transformation

The morphology of the stagnated plasma resulting from Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) is measured by imaging the self-emission x-rays coming from the multi-keV plasma, and the evolution of the imploding liner is measured by radiographs. Equivalent diagnostic response can be derived from integrated rad-MHD simulations from programs such as Hydra and Gorgon. There have been only limited quantitative ways to compare the image morphology, that is the texture, of simulations and experiments. We have developed a metric of image morphology based on the Mallat Scattering Transformation (MST), a transformation that has proved to be effective at distinguishing textures, sounds, and written characters. This metric has demonstrated excellent performance in classifying ensembles of synthetic stagnation images. We use this metric to quantitatively compare simulations to experimental images, cross experimental images, and to estimate the parameters of the images with uncertainty via a linear regression of the synthetic images to the parameter used to generate them. This coordinate space has proved very adept at doing a sophisticated relative back-ground subtraction in the MST space. This was needed to compare the experimental self emission images to the rad-MHD simulation images. We have also developed theory that connects the transformation to the causal dynamics of physical systems. This has been done from the classical kinetic perspective and from the field theory perspective, where the MST is the generalized Green's function, or S-matrix of the field theory in the scale basis. From both perspectives the first order MST is the current state of the system, and the second order MST are the transition rates from one state to another. An efficient, GPU accelerated, Python implementation of the MST was developed. Future applications are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Probabalistic Modeling of Minibangs and Megabands (Final Report)

This project was original proposed as a fundamental advance in the treatment of probabilistic modeling as it applies to nuclear fission calculations of nuclear database inputs and produced particle distributions in heavy-ion collisions. However, funding decisions made within LLNL and the DOE Office of Science led to the project proceeding through three distinct stages. The first two, probabilistic calculations of the fission and jet energy loss relate follow directly from the proposed research. The fission task led to the development of a proof-of-principle Gaussian Process Emulator for time-dependent generator coordinate method (TDGCM) calculation for the fission of Pu-240. To study energy loss in heavy-ion collisions with a probabilistic model, we generated a training data set using the Pythia event generator superimposed on a heavy-ion background with a single quench-factor parameter. We then used kernel density estimation (KDE) to recover the distribution of quench-factors for a calibration data set. In the third stage, we proceeded to work through collaborations, collecting new data within the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and further developing bayesian methodology within the Jet Energy-loss Tomography with a Statistically and Computationally Advanced Program Envelope (JETSCAPE) Collaboration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting Dark Matter Subhalo Constraints from Stellar Streams using Implicit Likelihood Inference

The evidence for dark matter (DM) remains compelling, although attempts to understand its particle nature remain inconclusive. One promising method to study DM is detecting DM subhalos through their gravitational interactions with stellar streams. In this study, we apply Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to constrain subhalo interaction parameters, including mass, scale radius, velocity, and encounter geometry, from stellar stream kinematics. We generate particle spray simulations based on the Lagrange Cloud stripping technique, focusing on the ATLAS-Aliqa Uma stream as a test case. We train multiple NPE models across multiple observational scenarios, quantifying how kinematic completeness affects inference and forecasting constraints from upcoming surveys including LSST, 4MOST, and 10-year Gaia data. Our results demonstrate that NPE can produce accurate and well-calibrated posteriors. In the idealized case with full 6D coordinates, we achieve subhalo mass uncertainties of 15-20% for a $10^7 \, \mathrm{M_\odot}$ subhalo, with 5D coordinates (excluding radial velocities) achieving similar performance. Under realistic observational conditions, mass uncertainties range from 50% (present-day) to 20-40% (future scenarios), with comparable performance between the photometric-only LSST sample and a smaller sample that includes Gaia proper motions and 4MOST radial velocities. Most notably, we find that velocity bimodality emerges when phase space is poorly sampled, whether due to missing kinematic information or limited stellar tracers. Combining large photometric samples with targeted spectroscopic follow-up can effectively resolves this degeneracy. These results demonstrate the power of implicit likelihood inference for optimizing stellar stream observational strategies and forecasting DM subhalo constraints from upcoming surveys.

Nguyen, Tri [Northwestern U. (main); SkAI, Chicago↗