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Results for “grey-box predictive energy model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Powered By SAM [Slides]

The System Advisor Model(TM) (SAM) is a free, open-source desktop application for techno-economic analysis of energy technologies. By combining detailed performance modeling with financial analysis, SAM allows users to assess technology trade-offs, explore future scenarios, and make informed decisions about energy investments. Users also have access to model details and the ability to embed SAM's core models in their own applications. This webinar, hosted by National Laboratory of the Rockies researchers Janine Keith and Matt Prilliman, highlights how this widely used modeling tool supports data-driven decision-making for energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Connectivity, Pathology, and ApoE4 Interactions Predict Longitudinal Tau Spatial Progression and Memory

ABSTRACT Tau pathology spread into neocortex indicates a transition from healthy aging to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Connectivity between tau epicenters and later accumulating regions of cortex has been proposed as a mechanism of tau spread, but how this relationship changes with greater AD pathology burden or genotype is not understood. We investigated tau accumulation in two key regions, precuneus and inferior temporal cortex, using resting state functional connectivity (rsFC) and longitudinal PET imaging from a multicohort sample of cognitively unimpaired older adults. We examined how baseline tau PET, Aβ PET, and ApoE4 genotype status interact with rsFC between hippocampus and these downstream regions to predict rate of tau accumulation in neocortex. We found that the 3‐way interaction between connectivity, baseline tau, and baseline Aβ or ApoE4 status was associated with neocortical tau accumulation in precuneus and inferior temporal cortex. In addition, baseline tau, Aβ, and ApoE4 status also moderated the association between connectivity and rate of memory decline. Together, these results suggest that the extent and distribution of future tau accumulation may be predicted by the interaction of baseline connectivity, AD pathology, and genetic risk.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wide-ranging predictions of new stable compounds powered by recommendation engines

The computational search for new stable inorganic compounds is faster than ever, thanks to high-throughput density functional theory (DFT). However, stable compound searches remain highly expensive because of the enormous search space and the cost of DFT calculations. To aid these searches, recommendation engines have been developed. We conduct a systematic comparison of the performance of previously developed recommendation engines, specifically ones based on elemental substitution, data mining, and neural network prediction of formation enthalpy. After identifying ways to improve the recommendation engines, we find the neural network to be superior at recommending stable Heusler compounds. Armed with improved recommendation engines, we identify tens of thousands of compounds that are stable at zero temperature and pressure, now available in the Open Quantum Materials Database. We summarize this diverse pool of compounds, including the elusive mixed anion compounds, and two of their many applications: thermoelectricity and solar thermochemical fuel production.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Refractory-based thermal energy storage for industrial process heat: one-dimensional modeling, control, and optimization

The variable and weather-dependent output of wind and solar power plants present a substantial challenge for planning and operating electricity-systems, particularly in the absence of cost-effective and dispatchable energy storage technologies. This study investigates a high-temperature, electrically heated, refractory-based thermal energy storage (RTES) system that stores electrical energy as sensible heat in dense ceramic bricks over the 950–1800 °C range. The stored heat can be discharged as a controlled hot-gas stream for industrial heating, fuel substitution in high-temperature processes, or electricity generation. The main novelty is a comprehensive modelling, control, mapping, and optimization framework that integrates one-dimensional transient gas–solid heat transfer, fan-assisted discharge, bypass-flow regulation, reheating logic, fan-power evaluation, insulation-loss assessment, and genetic-algorithm-based design optimization. The model uses feedback from outlet temperature and delivered power to regulate discharge, while a two-stage genetic algorithm optimizes brick-channel geometry, gas-flow operation, and multilayer insulation thicknesses. Storage capacities below 50 MWh and discharge powers of 5–30 MW are analyzed to evaluate hold time, thermal delivery, fan-power penalty, heat loss, state-of-charge evolution, and indicative capital cost. Results demonstrate that optimized and well-insulated refractory-based thermal energy storage units can provide stable, efficient, and repeatable heat delivery over multiple discharge cycles. The generated performance and cost maps support modular refractory thermal energy storage as a practical option for large-scale integration of wind and solar generation and for high-temperature industrial process heat.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fracture Analysis of Cohesive Zone Models for Modeling Residual Stress Induced Delamination in Composite Structures

A fracture study of coupon-scale composite cylinders with embedded defects was conducted with an objective to assess and validate a modeling approach using two available cohesive material models. The study included experimental and simulation evaluations of initiation of crack growth and progression. Interrupted thermal experiments used acoustic emissions monitoring to identify the onset of crack progression during each cooling interval and ultrasonic scanning provided images of defect growth. Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) processes were performed in the assessment of the simulation predicted temperature at which crack propagation begins (quantity of interest). The Sobol sensitivity analysis identified the hoop direction elastic modulus in the carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) plies as the most influential parameter for simulations using both cohesive models, accounting for at least 70% of the variation in the temperature at crack propagation. The UQ temperature range for the Tvergaard-Hutchinson model was higher (more conservative) than the experimental acoustic measurement indicators of crack progression, while the temperature range for the Thouless-Parmigiani model enveloped the experimental data points for the primary defect size of 0.75 x 1 in. The simulations could not capture the stable crack growth indicated in the experiments. This is likely due to the models’ inability to represent anisotropic fracture toughness attributed to the structure of the orthotropic fiber weave in a woven composite laminate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reduced-order CFD modeling of cryogenic hydrogen isotope extrusion for pellet fueling

This study presents a reduced-order model (ROM) for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of cryogenic hydrogen isotope extrusions, focusing on protium (H₂) and deuterium (D₂) piston extruders. Using a 2D axisymmetric ROM in ANSYS-Polyflow, significant computational savings were achieved (runtime reduced from 9∼24 h to 3∼5 min), with extrusion force discrepancies between the 2D ROM and 3D models being on the order of 1%. Parametric studies identified optimal cutoff shear rates in the viscosity model (0.01/s for H₂ and 0.001/s for D₂), providing recommendations for future simulations. Finally, a comprehensive comparison of ROM results with experimental data was performed across varying geometries, cryogenic materials, temperatures, extrusion lengths, and piston velocities. Predictions at low extrusion temperatures met the objective of providing quick and efficient solutions with an acceptable extrusion force error of approximately 10% or less, validating the effectiveness of the 2D ROM approach. However, at high temperatures closer to the triple point, extrusion force error grows, which necessitates developing an improved model that accounts for temperature effects, e.g. melting. Nevertheless, the findings still represent a significant improvement in efficiency of CFD modeling of cryogenic hydrogenic extrusion. The ROM framework can also be extended to tritium (T2) and screw extruders, which will ultimately provide a fast and effective tool for optimizing pellet injector design for ITER and future reactor systems.

Fan, Joy [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000229751735)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time-dependent scenario modeling for the ST-E1 fusion power plant

ST-E1 is a low aspect ratio fusion power plant being designed by Tokamak Energy targeting 1.5 GW of fusion power. Characterization of the ST-E1 flat-top scenario is described elsewhere McNamara et al (2026 Nucl. Fusion 66 086008); here we focus on addressing the question of how to ramp-up the ST-E1 plasma from an initial state following breakdown and flux-surface formation to the target flat-top state. Being low-aspect ratio, the available solenoid flux of ST-E1 is limited. Therefore, particular consideration is placed on developing ramp-up scenarios that predominantly use inductive flux provided by external vertical field coils. Through time-dependent modeling with METIS, we show that this is possible when the ramp-up is performed at relatively high plasma density: although auxiliary current drive efficiency is reduced, this is significantly outweighed by (1) higher electron-ion collisional equilibration, (2) higher fusion power once ions become sufficiently hot, (3) higher poloidal beta for increased vertical-field flux, and (4) potentially favorable exhaust compatibilities. Ultimately, we show the target ST-E1 flat-top performance can be reached after a ramp-up period lasting 150 s using less than 40 Vs of solenoid flux (with vertical field providing ∼ 90 Vs of flux). The sensitivity to model assumptions are presented, with the general observation that deleterious effects can be mitigated through minor alterations of the auxiliary power temporal waveform and/or total auxiliary power level. The impact of a solenoid and the auxiliary power mix (electron cyclotron heating only versus electron and ion cyclotron heating) on the ST-E1 ramp-up success are also discussed in appendices. On this latter topic, we show that the effect of direct-ion heating during ramp-up is obscured by the uncertainty in the pedestal dynamics, identifying a clear line of future work required to make a definite decision on the ST-E1 auxiliary power mix.

current ramp-up↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy-Optimal Vehicle Longitudinal Motion Control via Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle and Ultra-Local Model

Longitudinal vehicle motion control is essential for enhancing performance and optimizing a vehicle’s energy usage. However, it remains a challenging task due to the nonlinear and uncertain nature of vehicle dynamics, along with varying driving conditions. This paper presents a novel ultra-local optimal control approach based on Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle (PMP) that circumvents the need for detailed system identification by employing an ultra-local model. The control objective is to minimize the total energy consumption under boundary conditions while ensuring smooth traction force generation. The proposed approach is evaluated using a high-fidelity vehicle model in three representative scenarios: (i) nominal driving, (ii) a change in tire road friction coefficient (TRFC) from 0.5 to 0.65 and road slope from 0% to 5% during the maneuver, with target velocity unchanged, and (iii) a change in target velocity from 20 m/s to 0 m/s during the maneuver, while maintaining nominal TRFC and slope conditions. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method delivers robust performance, effectively balancing consumption and tracking accuracy in all tested scenarios.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electrode Erosion and Prefire Studies Towards Fusion Scale Pulsed Power

This study presents a comprehensive investigation of electrode erosion and discharge behavior in spark gap switches over long switching cycle lifetimes. Brass, copper–tungsten (CuW), and stainless steel electrodes are tested under controlled conditions to quantify material degradation, debris accumulation, and changes in breakdown voltage. High-resolution imaging and statistical analysis of spark channel locations and gap breakdown voltages reveal how surface evolution influences long-term performance and reliability. These results provide essential data for lifetime modeling and inform design strategies for pulsed power systems in emerging applications such as private sector fusion energy and large-scale facilities like Sandia’s Z Machine and proposed ZX upgrades, where high repetition reliability and predictable behavior are critical.

electrical breakdown↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Sensitivity-driven Wide Area Protection (SWAP) Coordination Tool for High Penetration of Inverter-based Resources (IBR)

Traditionally, power system generation sources have been composed of synchronous generators, of which the fault current behavior is understood with minimal differences between generation size and types due to the physics of their construction. Present protection schemes and modeling methods are based upon these understood characteristics. Most renewable generation is composed of inverter-based resources (IBR), in which fault current is determined by switching control software and hardware limitations, each of which can vary between manufacturers and even between models of the same manufacturer. The resulting fault current is low in magnitude, low in negative-sequence current, unpredictable phase angles, and is a challenge to model. These characteristics also result in a challenge to traditional protection schemes and fault simulation software. To address several of these concerns, the project has the following goals: 1. Improve IBR models: Improve IBR models used in short circuit (SC) programs to accurately capture the response of IBRs at the bulk power system (BPS) level for fault and protection studies. 2. Develop automation tool: Develop an automation tool that allows engineers to identify protection coordination and sensitivity issues by performing SC and protection coordination studies in a high IBR-penetrated grid by applying variations to the IBR models, faults, contingencies, etc. 3. Develop schemes: Develop new protection mitigation solution schemes that complement the existing protection systems to ensure safe operation of the BPS with higher IBR penetration levels. The project team did not achieve this final goal, as the Department of Energy (DOE) stopped the project early due to changes in DOE funding priorities. The termination notice came at the beginning of the final project phase, while the team was identifying and beginning to investigate protection issues. It should be noted that the team discussed a 100% penetration scenario. However, this scenario would require the use of grid-forming IBR models that are not presently available. Since developing these models requires additional effort, the 100% penetration scenario was not pursued during this project. In the future, developing the methodology and models for the 100% scenario could benefit the industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unique Conductivity Behavior in Water-In-Salt Electrolytes Driven by Ion Clusters

Understanding and predicting ion transport in aqueous electrolytes are crucial for advanced energy storage and biophysics, and many emergent technologies yet remain elusive. Herein, we introduce a unified framework to quantitatively describe and predict electrolyte conductivity that shifts from conventional molar concentration-based metrics to a volume fraction-based approach. Through analyzing a variety of electrolyte solutions via this perspective, we observe a universal conductivity peak at a 37% volume fraction. Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations reveal that nanometer-scale ion clusters drive this general behavior. Moreover, key geometric features of the ion transport pathwayssuch as pore size, tortuosity, and connectivityfollow a consistent dependence with respect to the volume fraction, reinforcing the argument for the universal conductivity trend. This paradigm shift opens new avenues for designing high-performance electrolytes and provides transformative insights for advancing studies in many fields, wherein molecular aggregates dictate transport properties.

Nguyen, Huong T. D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Development of Kinetic and Radiation Hydrodynamics Modeling of Thermonuclear Burn Propagation in Isochoric p - 11 B Through the Support of the INFUSE Program

The report summarizes DOE INFUSE-supported work between HB11 Energy and the University of Rochester’s TriForce Institute to improve computational modeling of advanced fusion fuels, especially proton–boron-11 (p- 11 B). The project extended the TriForce particle-in-cell/Monte Carlo collision code to include physics needed for dense, high-temperature p- 11 B burn studies, including p- 11 B fusion reactions, three-alpha-particle reaction products, relativistic Coulomb collisions, large-angle nuclear scattering, bremsstrahlung radiation, inverse bremsstrahlung absorption, and photon transport. The upgraded models were verified against focused physics tests and against known deuterium–tritium burn behavior. The study then used one-dimensional spherical simulations to estimate the conditions required for thermonuclear burn propagation in isochoric p- 11 B fuel. The calculations found that burn propagation is possible in the model, but only under very extreme hot-spot conditions, such as about 7000 g/cm 3 at 500 keV or 9000 g/cm 3 at 300 keV for a 20-micron hot spot. These conditions are much more demanding than current demonstrated inertial confinement fusion hot spots. The report concludes that the INFUSE collaboration successfully advanced kinetic and radiation modeling capabilities for p- 11 B fusion and provided useful estimates of ignition requirements. However, the simulated fuel gains remain below what would be needed for practical inertial fusion energy, and further work is needed to reconcile differences among kinetic, radiation-hydrodynamic, and analytic models and to identify more achievable target designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A physically interpretable precursor framework for sub-seasonal prediction of Northern Hemisphere flash flourishing

Flash flourishing describes rapid vegetation increases that can quickly reshape land–atmosphere exchanges and impacts on ecosystem, yet its large-scale precursors, circulation context, and sub-seasonal predictability remain poorly understood. Here, we identified onset-stage circulation regimes across northern extratropical latitudes (NEL; >30°N) using 200 and 1000 hPa geopotential height, and examined their regional expressions over eastern Asia, western North America, and Europe. Flash flourishing onset in East Asian was associated with a baroclinic circulation regime and was preceded by a North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) precursor at a four-pentad lead. In contrast, onset in western North American and European preferentially occurred under barotropic regimes, preconditioned by Great Plains soil moisture at three-pentad lead and North Atlantic SST at a four-pentad lead, respectively. Ridge regression forecasts revealed regime-dependent sub-seasonal predictability, with mean out-of-sample R 2 exceeding 0.3 up to lead times of two pentads in East Asia, three pentads in western North America, and four pentads in Europe. Together, these findings established a mechanistic and regionally specific framework for anticipating rapid vegetation greening at sub-seasonal timescales.

Kong, Xiangxu [Nanjing Univ. of Information Scienc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy filtering–induced ultrahigh thermoelectric power factors in Ni 3 Ge

Traditional thermoelectric materials rely on low thermal conductivity to enhance their efficiency but suffer from inherently limited power factors. Innovative pathways to optimize electronic transport are thus crucial. Here, we achieve ultrahigh power factors in Ni 3 Ge-based systems through an unconventional thermoelectric materials design principle. When overlapping flat and dispersive bands are engineered to the Fermi level, charge carriers can undergo intense interband scattering, yielding an energy filtering effect similar to what has long been predicted in certain nanostructured materials. Via a multistep DFT-based screening method developed here, we find a family of L1 2 -ordered binary compounds with ultrahigh power factors up to 11 mW m −1 K −2 near room temperature, which are driven by an intrinsic phonon-mediated energy filtering mechanism. Our comprehensive experimental and theoretical study of these intriguing materials paves the way for understanding and designing high-performance scattering-tuned metallic thermoelectrics.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear–Electronic Orbital General Rate Theory: Predicting Hydrogen Kinetic Isotope Effects in the Deep Tunneling Regime

Hydrogen transfer is a critical component of many chemical and biological processes. The ratio of rate constants for hydrogen and deuterium transfer defines the H/D kinetic isotope effect (KIE), which is a powerful tool for elucidating hydrogen transfer mechanisms. Interpretation of experimental H/D KIEs relies on accurate and affordable computational methods. However, due to their light mass, hydrogen and deuterium can undergo tunneling, which is challenging to describe in multidimensional molecular systems. Herein, we introduce the nuclear–electronic orbital general rate theory (NEO-GRT), which enables the efficient prediction of H/D KIEs based on full-dimensional molecular quantum chemistry calculations. The NEO-GRT approach describes the hydrogen transfer rate constant with a general expression that spans the vibrationally adiabatic and nonadiabatic hydrogen tunneling regimes. The input quantities are computed using NEO density functional theory, which treats the transferring hydrogen or deuterium nucleus quantum mechanically on the same level as the electrons. We investigate two intramolecular proton transfer reactions in organic molecules at temperatures down to 50 K to evaluate the performance of NEO-GRT by comparison to transition state theory and ring-polymer instanton theory. The KIEs computed with NEO-GRT agree with those calculated using ring-polymer instanton theory for the full-dimensional molecular systems at the same level of electronic structure theory. This agreement indicates that NEO-GRT captures the deep hydrogen tunneling effects, in contrast to transition state theory, which neglects such effects. Given its relatively low computational cost, NEO-GRT is a promising approach for predicting H/D KIEs in large organic and organometallic systems.

Hydrogen↗