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NASA NTRS2013

A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios

A key goal for space weather studies is to define severe and extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012, solar active region 1520 (approx. 141 deg W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be 2500+/-500 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 125 deg W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 19 h later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. In this paper, we address the question of what would have happened if this powerful interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the twentieth century (Dst approx. - 500 nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst= - 1182 nT. This is considerably larger than estimates for the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.

solar longitude↗

NASA NTRS2019

Importance of Tree- and Species-Level Interactions With Wildfire, Climate, and Soils in Interior Alaska: Implications for Forest Change Under A Warming Climate

The boreal zone of Alaska is dominated by interactions between disturbances, vegetation, and soils. These interactions are likely to change in the future through increasing permafrost thaw, more frequent and intense wildfires, and vegetation change from drought and competition. We utilize an individual tree-based vegetation model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), to estimate current and future forest conditions across sites within interior Alaska. We updated UVAFME for application within interior Alaska, including improved simulation of permafrost dynamics, litter decay, nutrient dynamics, fire mortality, and post-fire regrowth. Following these updates, UVAFME output on species-specific biomass and stem density was comparable to inventory measurements at various forest types within interior Alaska. We then simulated forest response to climate change at specific inventory locations and across the Tanana Valley River Basin on a 2 × 2 km2 grid. We derived projected temperature and precipitation from a five-model average taken from the CMIP5 archive under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results suggest that climate change and the concomitant impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in overall decreases in biomass (particularly for spruce (Picea spp.)) within the interior Tanana Valley, despite increases in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) biomass, and a resulting shift towards higher deciduous fraction. Simulation results also predict increases in biomass at cold, wet locations and at high elevations, and decreases in biomass in dry locations, under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. These simulations demonstrate that a highly detailed, species interactive model can be used across a large region within Alaska to investigate interactions between vegetation, climate, wildfire, and permafrost. The vegetation changes predicted here have the capacity to feed back to broader scale climate-forest interactions in the North American boreal forest, a region which contributes significantly to the global carbon and energy budgets.

forest modeling↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Cloud-Resolving Simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991): Storm Structure and Eyewall Buoyancy

A numerical simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) is conducted using the Penn State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 Km on the finest nested mesh The model produces a realistic hurricane that intensifies slowly during the period of fine-scale simulation. Time-averaged results reveal the effects of storm motion. vertical shear, beta gyres and deformation forcing on the structure of radial inflow, vertical motion, and precipitation. Instantaneous model fields show that radial inflow in the eyewall is very intense near the surface but transitions to strong low-level outflow near the top of the boundary layer. The low-level structure is modulated by a wavenumber 2 disturbance that rotates around the eyewall at half the speed of the maximum tangential winds and is consistent with a vortex Rossby edge wave. The statistical distribution of vertical velocity in the eyewall indicates that the eyewall is composed of a small number of intense updrafts that account for the majority of the upward mass flux rather than a more gradual and symmetric eyewall circulation, consistent with the concept of hot towers. Tongues of high equivalent potential temperature, Theta(sub e), are seen along the inner edge of the eyewall updraft and within the low-level outflow. This air originates from outside of the eyewall with the highest theta(sub e) air coming from the layer closest to the surface after penetrating closest to the center. Occasionally, high Theta(sub e), air within the eye is drawn into the eyewall updrafts. The high Theta(sub e), air rising within the eyewall is shown to be associated with positive eyewall buoyancy with sufficient convective available potential energy along its path to produce relatively strong convective updrafts. Although the requirements for conditional symmetric instability are met within the eyewall and the air parcel trajectories follow slanted paths, the radial displacement of air parcels in the low-level outflow moves the air parcel sufficiently far away from the upper- warm core that the air becomes unstable to vertical displacements. Hence, convective instability rather than symmetric instability accounts for the stronger updrafts in the eyewall.

Braun, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Single Airfoil Gust Response Problem

An unsteady aerodynamic code, called GUST3D, has been developed to solve the single, non-constant coefficient, inhomogeneous convective wave equation for flows with periodic vortical disturbance. The code uses a frequency-domain approach with second-order central differences and a Sommerfeld radiation condition in the far field. It has been extensively validated on model problems with analytical solutions. GUST3D requires as input certain mean flow quantities which are calculated separately by a potential flow solver. This solver calculates the mean flow using a Gothert's Rule approximation. On the airfoil surface, it uses the solution calculated by the potential code FL036. A figure shows the mean pressure along the airfoil surface. To calculate the unsteady pressure, GUST3D was run oil systematically refined grids to obtain a converged solution at each frequency. It was found that 24 points per wavelength was sufficient for convergence. The location of the outer grid boundary was also varied to check for sensitivity to the far-field boundary condition.

Scott, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

An efficient coordinate transformation technique for unsteady, transonic aerodynamic analysis of low aspect-ratio wings

An efficient coordinate transformation technique is presented for constructing grids for unsteady, transonic aerodynamic computations for delta-type wings. The original shearing transformation yielded computations that were numerically unstable and this paper discusses the sources of those instabilities. The new shearing transformation yields computations that are stable, fast, and accurate. Comparisons of those two methods are shown for the flow over the F5 wing that demonstrate the new stability. Also, comparisons are made with experimental data that demonstrate the accuracy of the new method. The computations were made by using a time-accurate, finite-difference, alternating-direction-implicit (ADI) algorithm for the transonic small-disturbance potential equation.

Guruswamy, G. P.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Single Airfoil Gust Response Problem: Category 3, Problem 1

An unsteady aerodynamic code, called GUST3D (ref. 3), has been developed to solve equation (8) for flows with periodic vortical disturbances. The code uses a frequency-domain approach with second-order central differences and a pressure radiation condition in the far field. GUST3D requires as input certain mean flow quantities which are calculated separately by a potential flow solver. The solver calculates the mean ow using a Gothert's Rule approximation (ref. 3). On the airfoil surface, it uses the solution calculated by the potential code FLO36 (ref. 4). Figures 1-2 show the mean pressure along the airfoil surface for the two airfoil geometries. In Figures 3 - 8, we present the RMS pressure on the airfoil surface. Each figure shows three GUST3D solutions (calculated on grids with different far-field boundary locations). Three solutions are shown to provide some indication of the numerical uncertainty in the results. Figures 9 - 13 present the acoustic intensity. We again show three solutions per case. Note that no results are presented for the k1 = k2 = 2.0 loaded airfoil case, as an acceptable solution could not be obtained. A few comments need to be made about the results shown. First, since the last Workshop, the GUST3D code has been substantially upgraded. This includes implementing a more accurate far-field boundary condition (ref. 5) and developing improved gridding capabilities. This is the reason for any differences that may exist between the present results and results from the last Workshop. Second, the intensity results on the circle R = 4C were obtained using a Kirchoff method (ref. 6). The Kirchoff surface was the circle R = 2C. Finally, the GUST3D code is most accurate for low reduced frequencies. A new domain decomposition approach (ref. 7) has been developed to improve accuracy. Both the single domain and domain decomposition approaches were used in generating the present results.

Scott, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Validation of three-dimensional incompressible spatial direct numerical simulation code: A comparison with linear stability and parabolic stability equation theories for boundary-layer transition on a flat plate

Spatially evolving instabilities in a boundary layer on a flat plate are computed by direct numerical simulation (DNS) of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. In a truncated physical domain, a nonstaggered mesh is used for the grid. A Chebyshev-collocation method is used normal to the wall; finite difference and compact difference methods are used in the streamwise direction; and a Fourier series is used in the spanwise direction. For time stepping, implicit Crank-Nicolson and explicit Runge-Kutta schemes are used to the time-splitting method. The influence-matrix technique is used to solve the pressure equation. At the outflow boundary, the buffer-domain technique is used to prevent convective wave reflection or upstream propagation of information from the boundary. Results of the DNS are compared with those from both linear stability theory (LST) and parabolized stability equation (PSE) theory. Computed disturbance amplitudes and phases are in very good agreement with those of LST (for small inflow disturbance amplitudes). A measure of the sensitivity of the inflow condition is demonstrated with both LST and PSE theory used to approximate inflows. Although the DNS numerics are very different than those of PSE theory, the results are in good agreement. A small discrepancy in the results that does occur is likely a result of the variation in PSE boundary condition treatment in the far field. Finally, a small-amplitude wave triad is forced at the inflow, and simulation results are compared with those of LST. Again, very good agreement is found between DNS and LST results for the 3-D simulations, the implication being that the disturbance amplitudes are sufficiently small that nonlinear interactions are negligible.

Joslin, Ronald D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Effects of G-Jitter on Directional Solidification of a Binary Alloy

A study of directional solidification of a weak binary alloy (specifically, Bi - 1 at% Sn) based on the fixed grid single domain approach is being undertaken. The enthalpy method is used to solve for the temperature field over the computational domain including both the solid and liquid phases; latent heat evolution is treated with the aid of an effective specific heat coefficient. A source term accounting for the release of solute into the liquid during solidification has been incorporated into the solute transport equation. The vorticity-stream function formulation is used to describe thermo-solutal convection in the liquid region. In this paper we present a numerical simulation of g-jitter. A background gravity of 1 microgram has been assumed, and new results for the effects of periodic disturbances over a range of amplitudes and frequencies on solute field and segregation have been presented.

Benjapiyaporn, C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Local gravity disturbance estimation from multiple-high-single-low satellite-to-satellite tracking

The idea of satellite-to-satellite tracking in the high-low mode has received renewed attention in light of the uncertain future of NASA's proposed low-low mission, Geopotential Research Mission (GRM). The principal disadvantage with a high-low system is the increased time interval required to obtain global coverage since the intersatellite visibility is often obscured by Earth. The U.S. Air Force has begun to investigate high-low satellite-to-satellite tracking between the Global Positioning System (GPS) of satellites (high component) and NASA's Space Transportation System (STS), the shuttle (low component). Because the GPS satellites form, or will form, a constellation enabling continuous three-dimensional tracking of a low-altitude orbiter, there will be no data gaps due to lack of intervisibility. Furthermore, all three components of the gravitation vector are estimable at altitude, a given grid of which gives a stronger estimate of gravity on Earth's surface than a similar grid of line-of-sight gravitation components. The proposed Air Force mission is STAGE (Shuttle-GPS Tracking for Anomalous Gravitation Estimation) and is designed for local gravity field determinations since the shuttle will likely not achieve polar orbits. The motivation for STAGE was the feasibility to obtain reasonable accuracies with absolutely minimal cost. Instead of simulating drag-free orbits, STAGE uses direct measurements of the nongravitational forces obtained by an inertial package onboard the shuttle. The sort of accuracies that would be achievable from STAGE vis-a-vis other satellite tracking missions such as GRM and European Space Agency's POPSAT-GRM are analyzed.

Jekeli, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS2002

Convective Systems Over the Japan Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Wintertime observations of MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) over the Sea of Japan - 2001 (WMO-01) were collected from January 12 to February 1, 2001. One of the major objectives is to better understand and forecast snow systems and accompanying disturbances and the associated key physical processes involved in the formation and development of these disturbances. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during WMO-01 provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with winter storms over the Sea of Japan region. WMO-01 also provided estimates of the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). The vertical integrals of Q1 and Q2 are equal to the surface precipitation rates. The horizontal and vertical adjective components of Q1 and Q2 can be used as large-scale forcing for the Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM (typically run with a 1-km grid size). The GCE model has sophisticated microphysics and allows explicit interactions between clouds, radiation, and surface processes. It will be used to understand and quantify precipitation processes associated with wintertime convective systems over the Sea of Japan (using data collected during the WMO-01). This is the first cloud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE model-simulated WMO-01 results will also be compared to other GCE model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., South China Sea, west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2000

Effects of Space Environment on Flow and Concentration During Directional Solidification

A study of directional solidification of a weak binary alloy (specifically, Bi - 1 at% Sn) based on the fixed grid single domain approach is being undertaken. The enthalpy method is used to solve for the temperature field over the computational domain including both the solid and liquid phases; latent heat evolution is treated with the aid of an effective specific heat coefficient. A source term accounting for the release of solute into the liquid during solidification has been incorporated into the solute transport equation. The vorticity-stream function formulation is used to describe thermosolutal convection in the liquid region. In this paper we numerically investigate the effects of g-jitter on directional solidification. A background gravity of 1 micro-g has been assumed, and new results for the effects of periodic disturbances over a range of amplitudes and frequencies on solute field and segregation have been presented.

Benjapiyaporn, C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Scalability study of parallel spatial direct numerical simulation code on IBM SP1 parallel supercomputer

The implementation and the performance of a parallel spatial direct numerical simulation (PSDNS) code are reported for the IBM SP1 supercomputer. The spatially evolving disturbances that are associated with laminar-to-turbulent in three-dimensional boundary-layer flows are computed with the PS-DNS code. By remapping the distributed data structure during the course of the calculation, optimized serial library routines can be utilized that substantially increase the computational performance. Although the remapping incurs a high communication penalty, the parallel efficiency of the code remains above 40% for all performed calculations. By using appropriate compile options and optimized library routines, the serial code achieves 52-56 Mflops on a single node of the SP1 (45% of theoretical peak performance). The actual performance of the PSDNS code on the SP1 is evaluated with a 'real world' simulation that consists of 1.7 million grid points. One time step of this simulation is calculated on eight nodes of the SP1 in the same time as required by a Cray Y/MP for the same simulation. The scalability information provides estimated computational costs that match the actual costs relative to changes in the number of grid points.

Hanebutte, Ulf R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Effect of g-jitter on Directional Solidification of a Binary Alloy

A study of directional solidification of a weak binary alloy (specifically, Bi - 1 at% Sn) based on the fixed grid single domain approach is being undertaken. The enthalpy method is used to solve for the temperature field over the computational domain including both the solid and liquid phases; latent heat evolution is treated with the aid of an effective specific heat coefficient. A source term accounting for the release of solute into the liquid during solidification has been incorporated into the solute transport equation. The vorticity-stream function formulation is used to describe thermosolutal convection in the liquid region. In this paper we present a numerical simulation of g-jitter: the small, rapid fluctuations in gravitational acceleration which may be experienced in an orbiting space vehicle. A background gravity of 1 micro-g has been assumed, and new results for the effects of orientation angle of the periodic disturbances over a range of amplitudes and frequencies on solute field and segregation have been presented.

Santiviriyapanich, P.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Parallel spatial direct numerical simulations on the Intel iPSC/860 hypercube

The implementation and performance of a parallel spatial direct numerical simulation (PSDNS) approach on the Intel iPSC/860 hypercube is documented. The direct numerical simulation approach is used to compute spatially evolving disturbances associated with the laminar-to-turbulent transition in boundary-layer flows. The feasibility of using the PSDNS on the hypercube to perform transition studies is examined. The results indicate that the direct numerical simulation approach can effectively be parallelized on a distributed-memory parallel machine. By increasing the number of processors nearly ideal linear speedups are achieved with nonoptimized routines; slower than linear speedups are achieved with optimized (machine dependent library) routines. This slower than linear speedup results because the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) routine dominates the computational cost and because the routine indicates less than ideal speedups. However with the machine-dependent routines the total computational cost decreases by a factor of 4 to 5 compared with standard FORTRAN routines. The computational cost increases linearly with spanwise wall-normal and streamwise grid refinements. The hypercube with 32 processors was estimated to require approximately twice the amount of Cray supercomputer single processor time to complete a comparable simulation; however it is estimated that a subgrid-scale model which reduces the required number of grid points and becomes a large-eddy simulation (PSLES) would reduce the computational cost and memory requirements by a factor of 10 over the PSDNS. This PSLES implementation would enable transition simulations on the hypercube at a reasonable computational cost.

Joslin, Ronald D.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Non-Linear Slosh Damping Model Development and Validation

Propellant tank slosh dynamics are typically represented by a mechanical model of spring mass damper. This mechanical model is then included in the equation of motion of the entire vehicle for Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) analysis. For a partially-filled smooth wall propellant tank, the critical damping based on classical empirical correlation is as low as 0.05%. Due to this low value of damping, propellant slosh is potential sources of disturbance critical to the stability of launch and space vehicles. It is postulated that the commonly quoted slosh damping is valid only under the linear regime where the slosh amplitude is small. With the increase of slosh amplitude, the critical damping value should also increase. If this nonlinearity can be verified and validated, the slosh stability margin can be significantly improved, and the level of conservatism maintained in the GN&C analysis can be lessened. The purpose of this study is to explore and to quantify the dependence of slosh damping with slosh amplitude. Accurately predicting the extremely low damping value of a smooth wall tank is very challenging for any Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool. One must resolve thin boundary layers near the wall and limit numerical damping to minimum. This computational study demonstrates that with proper grid resolution, CFD can indeed accurately predict the low damping physics from smooth walls under the linear regime. Comparisons of extracted damping values with experimental data for different tank sizes show very good agreements. Numerical simulations confirm that slosh damping is indeed a function of slosh amplitude. When slosh amplitude is low, the damping ratio is essentially constant, which is consistent with the empirical correlation. Once the amplitude reaches a critical value, the damping ratio becomes a linearly increasing function of the slosh amplitude. A follow-on experiment validated the developed nonlinear damping relationship. This discovery can lead to significant savings by reducing the number and size of slosh baffles in liquid propellant tanks.

Yang, H. Q.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Numerical Study of Outlet Boundary Conditions for Unsteady Turbulent Internal Flows Using the NCC

This paper presents the results of studies on the outlet boundary conditions for turbulent internal flow simulations. Several outlet boundary conditions have been investigated by applying the National Combustion Code (NCC) to the configuration of a LM6000 single injector flame tube. First of all, very large eddy simulations (VLES) have been performed using the partially resolved numerical simulation (PRNS) approach, in which both the nonlinear and linear dynamic subscale models were employed. Secondly, unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier- Stokes (URANS) simulations have also been performed for the same configuration to investigate the effects of different outlet boundary conditions in the context of URANS. Thirdly, the possible role of the initial condition is inspected by using three different initial flow fields for both the PRNS/VLES simulation and the URANS simulation. The same grid is used for all the simulations and the number of mesh element is about 0.5 million. The main purpose of this study is to examine the long-time behavior of the solution as determined by the imposed outlet boundary conditions. For a particular simulation to be considered as successful under the given initial and boundary conditions, the solution must be sustainable in a physically meaningful manner over a sufficiently long period of time. The commonly used outlet boundary condition for steady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulation is a fixed pressure at the outlet with all the other dependent variables being extrapolated from the interior. The results of the present study suggest that this is also workable for the URANS simulation of the LM6000 injector flame tube. However, it does not work for the PRNS/VLES simulation due to the unphysical reflections of the pressure disturbances at the outlet boundary. This undesirable situation can be practically alleviated by applying a simple unsteady convection equation for the pressure disturbances at the outlet boundary. The numerical results presented in this paper suggest that this unsteady convection of pressure disturbances at the outlet works very well for all the unsteady simulations (both PRNS/VLES and URANS) of the LM6000 single injector flame tube.

Liu, Nan-Suey↗

NASA NTRS1990

Potential vorticity index

Using standard data analysis techniques, researchers explore the links between disturbance growth and quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) gradients; appearance and disappearance of cutoff lows and blocking highs and their relation to a zonal index (properly defined in terms of PV); and teleconnections between different flow patterns and their relation to the zonal index. It was found that the PV index and the eddy index correlate better than a zonal index (defined by zonal wind) and the eddy index. In the frequency domain there are three frequencies (.03, .07 and .17 cpd (cycle per day) corresponding to periods of 33, 14 and 6 days) at which PV index and the eddy index exhibit local maxima. The high correlation found at periods of 33 days is mainly due to eddy activity at high latitudes while the local correlation maxima found at the shorter periods are mainly due mid-latitude eddy activity. The correlation between the PV index and the geopotential height anomaly at 500 mb, at each grid point in the Northern Hemisphere, shows the existence of most of the teleconnection patterns summarized by Wallace and Gutzler (1981): the North Atlantic Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, and the Pacific/North American patterns. Results show that the Isentropic Potential Vorticity (IPV) analysis can be a very useful and powerful tool when used to understand the dynamics of several large scale atmospheric systems. Although the data are limited to only one winter, and it is difficult to assess the statistical significance of the correlation coefficients presented here, the results are encouraging from physical viewpoint.

Barcilon, Albert↗

NASA NTRS1987

A linearized Euler analysis of unsteady flows in turbomachinery

A method for calculating unsteady flows in cascades is presented. The model, which is based on the linearized unsteady Euler equations, accounts for blade loading shock motion, wake motion, and blade geometry. The mean flow through the cascade is determined by solving the full nonlinear Euler equations. Assuming the unsteadiness in the flow is small, then the Euler equations are linearized about the mean flow to obtain a set of linear variable coefficient equations which describe the small amplitude, harmonic motion of the flow. These equations are discretized on a computational grid via a finite volume operator and solved directly subject to an appropriate set of linearized boundary conditions. The steady flow, which is calculated prior to the unsteady flow, is found via a Newton iteration procedure. An important feature of the analysis is the use of shock fitting to model steady and unsteady shocks. Use of the Euler equations with the unsteady Rankine-Hugoniot shock jump conditions correctly models the generation of steady and unsteady entropy and vorticity at shocks. In particular, the low frequency shock displacement is correctly predicted. Results of this method are presented for a variety of test cases. Predicted unsteady transonic flows in channels are compared to full nonlinear Euler solutions obtained using time-accurate, time-marching methods. The agreement between the two methods is excellent for small to moderate levels of flow unsteadiness. The method is also used to predict unsteady flows in cascades due to blade motion (flutter problem) and incoming disturbances (gust response problem).

Hall, Kenneth C.↗