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At least 145 records · Page 8

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop reported herein aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The petrogenesis of 77115 and its xenocrysts - Description and preliminary interpretation

77115, a fragment-laden feldspathic pigeonite basalt, is one of four hand specimen-size samples collected from a boulder about 2.5 m across at Station 7, Taurus-Littrow. 77115 crystallized rapidly from a melt at or near the lunar surface and contains a population of xenoliths and xenocrysts which must have come from two or more separate sources. Broad reaction rims present in many of the xenocrysts suggest that cooling of the melt may have been very slow initially and rapid in the latter stage to produce the very fine-grained matrix. If the requirement for two cooling rates can be established, this will favor an endogenous igneous origin rather than an impact origin for the melt. Another interpretation is that the matrix crystallized first, followed by subsolidus reaction between xenocrysts and matrix to form the rims. The Apollo 17 feldspathic pigeonite basalts are postulated to be the dominant rock types of the early lunar crust.

Chao, E. C. T.↗

Ground and aircraft infrared observations over a partially-vegetated area

Consideration is given to the feasibility of estimated a reliable composite surface temperature over a partially-vegetated and furrowed cotton field with an intensive ground sampling routing using hand-held radiometers. The ground-based data are compared with surface temperatures taken from an aircraft at an altitude of about 150 m. A simple model is presented for computing the composite surface temperature using component temperatures of the soil and vegetation and row crop dimensions and orientations. The results of the modeling are compared with the ground-based and airborne radiometric measurements. It is found that estimates of the composite surface temperature comparable to low-flying aircraft observations over row crops with sparse cover may be obtained using ground-based estimates of average canopy temperature.

Kustas, W. P.↗

A simple test of independence for truncated data with applications to redshift surveys

This paper presents an easily applied permutation test for H0, closely related to Lyden-Bell's (1971) estimate of the marginal distribution of truncated data. The test is applied to two redshift-magnitude surveys, one of galaxies and one of quasars. Assuming statistical independence, testing H0 amounts to testing validity of the cosmological model. Segal's (1986) chronomatic cosmological model is rejected under H0. On the other hand, for the quasar sample H0 is rejected strongly in a conventional cosmological model (and in a chronomatic model as well) indicating either incorrectness of the models or, as is more commonly assumed, indicating strong luminosity evolution.

Efron, Bradley↗

X-Ray Transmission Microscope Development

We have succeeded in meeting the goals set out in the proposal. A cadre of detector technologies is available to suit the requirements of the experiment. Resolutions of both real-time and absolute limits to resolution exceed the initial aspirations. Obtaining sufficient contrast is still a significant limitation but can be overcome by Judicious selection of the specimen composition. This can only take time and trial and error for a successful result. The 4th generation furnace provides the capability of real-time in-situ observations of composite alloy development. A low detection sensitivity however, has still made it difficult to observe dendritic growth, although it has been 'seen' in raw video; it was not a recordable signal. We have examined flight ampoules with XTM to observe particle and thermocouple placement, crucible flaws and cracks in collaboration with the Particle Pushing and Engulfment flight experiment (Dr. Stefanescu, UA, P.I.). The value of an in flight XTM to guard against experiment failure and safety assurance is obvious. Although not attributable to equipment limitations, a quest to observe particle pushing was not successful. We tried at length to prepare specimens that would demonstrate particle pushing. Instead, we were successful in imaging the interface deformation due to the thermal field distortion of a ceramic particle or void and to compare to calculated shapes. In theory, we should have been able to make major inroads to this field if the particles could be pushed and the velocities adjusted to make critical measurements. On the other hand, critical issues of sample preparation for the PEP flight experiment were established, particularly the clustering of particles and trapped voids. In this regard, the XTM did prove very useful so that flight specimens would work as expected and to perform post flight analysis. Although not a clear result, particle pushing of precipitates was observed in an Al-Si-Mn alloy. It may be that to be pushed, the particles need to be small and have clean surfaces like one might obtain from in-situ precipitation. The ability to image features in real time skill enable more fundamental and detailed understanding of solidification dynamics in microgravity than had previously been possible, thus, allowing the full benefits of microgravity experiments be applied towards rigorous testing of critical solidification models. The XTM is also a valuable tool for post solidification metallography. The 3-dimensional distribution of solute and solidification features within the specimen volume can be viewed without sectioning or other treatment when the solute has sufficiently higher atomic mass than the solvent. Thus the XTM could provide the first practical method for on orbit microstructural (metallographic) analysis by the astronauts or by telescience.

Kaukler, William F.↗

Assessment of Satellite-Derived Surface Reflectances by NASA's CAR Airborne Radiometer over Railroad Valley, Nevada

CAR (Cloud Absorption Radiometer) is a multi-angular and multi-spectral airborne radiometer instrument, whose radiometric and geometric characteristics are well calibrated and adjusted before and after each flight campaign. CAR was built by NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) in 1984. On 16 May 2008, a CAR flight campaign took place over the well-known calibration and validation site of Railroad Valley in Nevada (38.504 deg N, 115.692 deg W).The campaign coincided with the overpasses of several key EO (Earth Observation) satellites such as Landsat-7, Envisat and Terra. Thus, there are nearly simultaneous measurements from these satellites and the CAR airborne sensor over the same calibration site. The CAR spectral bands are close to those of most EO satellites. CAR has the ability to cover the whole range of azimuth view angles and a variety of zenith angles depending on altitude and, as a consequence, the biases seen between satellite and CAR measurements due to both unmatched spectral bands and unmatched angles can be significantly reduced. A comparison is presented here between CARs land surface reflectance (BRF or Bidirectional Reflectance Factor) with those derived from Terra/MODIS (MOD09 and MAIAC), Terra/MISR, Envisat/MERIS and Landsat-7. In this study, we utilized CAR data from low altitude flights (approx. 180 m above the surface) in order to minimize the effects of the atmosphere on these measurements and then obtain a valuable ground-truth data set of surface reflectance. Furthermore, this study shows that differences between measurements caused by surface heterogeneity can be tolerated, thanks to the high homogeneity of the study site on the one hand, and on the other hand, to the spatial sampling and the large number of CAR samples. These results demonstrate that satellite BRF measurements over this site are in good agreement with CAR with variable biases across different spectral bands. This is most likely due to residual aerosol effects in the EO derived reflectances.

calibration↗

X-ray diffraction investigations of structural modifications in In-doped tin pyrophosphates

Laboratory and synchrotron x-ray powder diffraction were used to investigate the structural modifications that occur upon indium doping of tin pyrophosphate. The data collected under air, vacuum, and inert gas sample environments at temperatures (T) from 50 °C to 300 °C show that regardless of the In-doping level (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.18) all InxSn1-xP2O7 samples are isomorphic (have the same P a -3 cubic crystal structure) at all temperatures and under all the conditions investigated. The cubic lattice parameter (a) increases linearly with T at all doping levels, but the “a vs. x|T“ isotherms exhibit a robust peak at x = 0.1 when data are collected on samples measured in air. On the other hand, Rietveld refinements against data collected on InxSn1-xP2O7 samples yield values of OO bond lengths and POP bond angles that show no major changes at x = 0.1 at any temperature. This is significant, as the Sn0.9In0.1P2O7 (x = 0.1) compound is known to exhibit the highest proton conductivity within the series, but the microscopic details responsible for the increased proton conductivity are not understood. Finally, the peak observed in the “a vs. x|T“ curves vanishes if the measurements are taken on samples kept either under vacuum or in an inert gas environment. This is a remarkable behavior as it lends further support to our hypothesis that a key microscopic feature responsible for the large proton conductivity of the Sn0.9In0.1P2O7 compound is the enlargement of the lattice constant at x = 0.1.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

I-Xe Dating of Aqueous Alteration in the CI Chondrite Orgueil: I. Magnetite and Ferromagnetic Separates

The I-Xe system was studied in a ferromagnetic sample separated from the Orgueil CI carbonaceous chondrite with a hand-held magnet and in two magnetite samples, one chemically separated before and the other one after neutron irradiation. This work was done in order to investigate the effects of chemical separation by LiCl and NaOH on the I-Xe system in magnetite. Our test demonstrated that the chemical separation of magnetite before irradiation using either LiCl or NaOH, or both, does not contaminate the sample with iodine and thus cannot lead to erroneous I-Xe ages due to introduction of uncor-related128*Xe. The I-Xe ages of two Orgueil magnetite samples are mutually consistent within experimental uncertainties and, when normalized to an absolute time scale with the reevaluated Shallowater aubrite standard, place the onset of aqueous alteration on the CI parent body at 4564.3 ± 0.3 Ma, 2.9 ± 0.3 Ma after formation of the CV Ca-AI-rich inclusions (CAIs). The I-Xe age ofthe ferromagnetic Orgueil separate is 3.4 Ma younger, corresponding to a closure of the I-Xe system at 4560.9 ± 0.2 Ma. These and previously published I-Xe data for Orgueil (Hohenberg et al., 2000) indicate that aqueous alteration on the CI parent body lasted for at least 5 Ma. Although the two magnetite samples gave indistinguishable I-Xe ages, their temperature release profiles differed. One of the two Orgueil magnetites released less radiogenic Xe than the other, 80% of it corresponding to the low-temperature peak of the release profile, compared to only 6% in case of the second Orgueil magnetite sample. This could be due to the difference in iodine trapping efficiencies for magnetite grains of different morphologies. Alternatively, the magnetite grains with the lower radiogenic Xe concentrations may have formed at a later stage of alteration when iodine in an aqueous solution was depleted.

I-Xe systematics↗

Automation of environmental compliance data acquisition and management - 15267

Regulatory sampling for environmental compliance at the Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, South Carolina employs several different types of sampling techniques at various sampling frequencies. These sampling events result in the collection of large quantities of data and generate substantial data-related documents. The use of paper documents resulted in the need for manual input of data collected in the field and distribution of documents from one group to the next. To efficiently and effectively manage the extensive amounts of data and documents, elements of the sampling process were automated using hand-held field tablets and an electronic application. The tablets allow for easier distribution of sampling documents, and the application allows for digital transfer of sampling information and collected field data. The transition to automated data acquisition and management has resulted in a more efficient and reliable manner for conducting business at SRS. This system benefits numerous organizations at SRS by utilizing a centralized database for efficient management of all environmental data collected. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Stoichiometry determined exchange interactions in amorphous ternary transition metal oxides: Theory and experiment

Amorphous transition metal oxides exhibit exotic transport and magnetic properties, while the absence of periodic structure has long been a major obstacle for the understanding of their electronic structure and exchange interaction. In this paper, we have formulated a theoretical approach, which combines the melt-quench approach and the spin dynamic Monte-Carlo simulations, and based on it, we explored amorphous Co{sub 0.5}Zn{sub 0.5}O{sub 1−y} ternary transition metal oxides. Our theoretical results reveal that the microstructure, the magnetic properties, and the exchange interactions of Co{sub 0.5}Zn{sub 0.5}O{sub 1−y} are strongly determined by the oxygen stoichiometry. In the oxygen-deficient sample (y > 0), we have observed the long-range ferromagnetic spin ordering which is associated with the non-stoichiometric cobalt-rich region rather than metallic clusters. On the other hand, the microstructure of stoichiometric sample takes the form of continuous random networks, and no long-range ferromagnetism has been observed in it. Magnetization characterization of experimental synthesized Co{sub 0.61}Zn{sub 0.39}O{sub 1−y} films verifies the relation between the spin ordering and the oxygen stoichiometry. Furthermore, the temperature dependence of electrical transport shows a typical feature of semiconductors, in agreement with our theoretical results.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Spectral ratio imaging methods for geological remote sensing from aircraft and satellites

An improved photogrammetric technique (scannergrammetry) for the production of ratio images from multispectral scanner data is described. The multispectral technique is less affected by variations in atmospheric and solar illumination levels than single-channel scanner imagery of aerial photographs. Another advantage of the multispectral technique is the proportionality between ratios of a target deduced from ratio images, on the one hand, and ratios of reflectances calculated from laboratory spectra of samples from the target area, on the other hand. Several representative ratio images from aircraft and satellite data in the visible, reflective IR, and thermal IR regions are included. The geological applications suggested for ratio scannergrammetry include exploration of construction materials, soils, stratigraphy, volcanic ash flows, beaches, and sand dunes.

Vincent, R. K.↗

Biodosimetry of ionizing radiation by selective painting of prematurely condensed chromosomes in human lymphocytes

Painting of interphase chromosomes can be useful for biodosimetric purposes in particular cases such as radiation therapy, accidental exposure to very high radiation doses and exposure to densely ionizing radiation, for example during space missions. Biodosimetry of charged-particle radiation is analyzed in the present paper. Target cells were human peripheral blood lymphocytes irradiated in vitro with gamma rays, protons and iron ions. After exposure, lymphocytes were incubated for different times to allow repair of radiation-induced damage and then fused to mitotic hamster cells to promote premature condensation in the interphase chromosomes. Chromosome spreads were then hybridized with whole-chromosome DNA probes labeled with fluorescent stains. Dose-response curves for the induction of chromatin fragments shortly after exposure, as well as the kinetics of rejoining and misrejoining, were not markedly dependent on linear energy transfer. However, after exposure to heavy ions, more aberrations were scored in the interphase cells after incubation for repair than in metaphase samples harvested at the first postirradiation mitosis. On the other hand, no significant differences were observed in the two samples after exposure to sparsely ionizing radiation. These results suggest that interphase chromosome painting can be a useful tool for biodosimetry of particle radiation.

NASA Center JSC↗

Exploring the Value of Nodes with Multicommunity Membership for Classification with Graph Convolutional Neural Networks

Sampling is an important step in the machine learning process because it prioritizes samples that help the model best summarize the important concepts required for the task at hand. The process of determining the best sampling method has been rarely studied in the context of graph neural networks. In this paper, we evaluate multiple sampling methods (i.e., ascending and descending) that sample based off different definitions of centrality (i.e., Voterank, Pagerank, degree) to observe its relation with network topology. We find that no sampling method is superior across all network topologies. Additionally, we find situations where ascending sampling provides better classification scores, showing the strength of weak ties. Two strategies are then created to predict the best sampling method, one that observes the homogeneous connectivity of the nodes, and one that observes the network topology. In both methods, we are able to evaluate the best sampling direction consistently.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ensemble Sampling vs. Time Sampling in Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Thermal Conductivity

In this report we compare time sampling and ensemble averaging as two different methods available for phase space sampling. For the comparison, we calculate thermal conductivities of solid argon and silicon structures, using equilibrium molecular dynamics. We introduce two different schemes for the ensemble averaging approach, and show that both can reduce the total simulation time as compared to time averaging. It is also found that velocity rescaling is an efficient mechanism for phase space exploration. Although our methodology is tested using classical molecular dynamics, the ensemble generation approaches may find their greatest utility in computationally expensive simulations such as first principles molecular dynamics. For such simulations, where each time step is costly, time sampling can require long simulation times because each time step must be evaluated sequentially and therefore phase space averaging is achieved through sequential operations. On the other hand, with ensemble averaging, phase space sampling can be achieved through parallel operations, since each ensemble is independent. For this reason, particularly when using massively parallel architectures, ensemble sampling can result in much shorter simulation times and exhibits similar overall computational effort.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

The correlation function of flux-limited X-ray clusters

We show that the spatial correlation function of a flux-limited sample of X-ray-selected clusters of galaxies will exhibit a correlation scale that is smaller than the correlation scale of a volume-limited, richness-limited sample of comparable apparent spatial density. The flux-limited sample contains clusters of different richnesses at different distances: poor groups are found nearby and rich clusters at greater distances. Since the cluster correlation strength is known to increase with richness, the flux-limited sample averages over the correlations of poor and rich clusters. On the other hand, a volume-limited, richness-limited sample has a minimum richness threshold, and a constant mixture of richnesses with redshift. Using the observed correlation scale for rich (R greater than or equal to 1) clusters, r(sub 0)(R greater than or equal to 1) = 21 +/- 2 Mpc/h, that was determined from previous volume-limited studies, we derive for the Roentgen Satellite (ROSAT) flux-limited X-ray cluster sample r(sub 0) (flux-limited) approximately equals 14 Mpc/h, in agreement with the recently observed value of 13.7 +/- 2.3 Mpc/h.

Bahcall, Neta A.↗

SECOND STATUS REPORT: TESTING OF AGED SOFTWOOD FIBERBOARD MATERIAL FOR THE 9975 SHIPPING PACKAGE

Samples have been prepared from a softwood fiberboard lower subassembly. Physical, mechanical and thermal properties have been measured following varying periods of conditioning in each of several environments. These tests have been conducted in the same manner as previous testing on cane fiberboard samples. Overall, similar aging trends are observed for softwood and cane fiberboard samples, with a few differences. On the positive side, the softwood fiberboard data to date shows less sample-to-sample variation in physical properties than cane fiberboard, and the thermal conductivity decreases at a slower rate at 250F for softwood fiberboard than for cane fiberboard. On the other hand, the softwood fiberboard physical property samples generally show degradation rates greater than cane fiberboard samples in the 185F 30%RH environment. Testing following additional conditioning will continue and the addition of samples in other elevated humidity environment(s) will be pursued to identify the extent of these trends. Post-conditioning data have been measured on samples from a single softwood fiberboard assembly, and baseline data are also available from a limited number of vendor-provided samples. This provides minimal information on the possible sample-to-sample variation exhibited by softwood fiberboard. Data to date are generally consistent with the range seen in cane fiberboard, but some portions of the data trends are skewed toward the lower end of that range. Further understanding of the variability of softwood fiberboard properties will require testing of additional material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Liquid Native MALDI Mass Spectrometry for the Detection of Protein-Protein Complexes

Native mass spectrometry (MS) encompasses methods to keep noncovalent interactions of biomolecular complexes intact in the gas phase throughout the instrument and to measure the mass-to-charge ratios of supramolecular complexes directly in the mass spectrometer. Electrospray ionization (ESI) in nondenaturing conditions is now an established method to characterize noncovalent systems. Matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI), on the other hand, consumes low quantities of samples and largely tolerates contaminants, making it a priori attractive for native MS. However, so-called native MALDI approaches have so far been based on solid deposits, where the rapid transition of the sample through a solid state can engender the loss of native conformations. Here we present a new method for native MS based on liquid deposits and MALDI ionization, unambiguously detecting intact noncovalent protein complexes by direct desorption from a liquid spot for the first time. To control for aggregation, we worked with HUαβ, a heterodimer that does not spontaneously rearrange into homodimers in solution. Screening through numerous matrix solutions to observe first the monomeric protein, then the dimer complex, we settled on a nondenaturing binary matrix solution composed of acidic and basic organic matrices in glycerol, which is stable in vacuo. The role of temporal and spatial laser irradiation patterns was found to be critical. Both a protein-protein and a protein-ligand complex could be observed free of aggregation. To minimize gas-phase dissociation, source parameters were optimized to achieve a conservation of complexes above 50% for both systems. .

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Stress-induced α″ phase in a beta Ti–19Nb–1.5Mo–4Zr–8Sn alloy

Highlights: • Morphologies/distributions of α″ produced by stretching/rolling are similar. • Under small deformation, α″ martensite consists of parallel lamellar structures. • Under larger deformations, martensite has ladder-like pattern and parallel ellipsoids. • With the increase of deformation hardness decreases firstly and then increases. - Abstract: The morphological evolution of the stress-induced α″ martensite with increases in the stretching and rolling deformation degrees as well as the related orientation relationship were investigated in a β titanium alloy (Ti–19Nb–1.5Mo–4Zr–8Sn)·For a stretching deformation of 1%, the α″ martensite exhibited a packet morphology consisting of parallel lamellar structures. On the other hand, in the 2%-rolled sample, the α″ martensite exhibited a long lath-like distribution, which was accompanied by a few small pieces. With an increase in the deformation degree, the α″ martensite gradually exhibited a ladder-like structure consisting of long and short α″ laths or ellipsoids. The existence of these self-accommodating martensitic variants decreased the elastic energy. The parallel α″ laths present within a single packet were found to have the same orientation. The interface between the α″ and β phases was coherent, and their lattice constant relationships were identified as √2a{sub β}≈b{sub α″}≈c{sub α″} and a{sub β} ≈ a{sub α″}. Further, with the increase in the deformation degree, the hardness of the alloy first decreased and then increased; this was the case both the stretched as well as the rolled samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗