Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “impact analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Electrification of Pakistan's Transport System: Modeling Electric Vehicle Penetration and Energy Supply Chain Impacts

Initial analysis of the National Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP) of Pakistan was undertaken by an integrated energy planning team from November 2019 through August 2020. This technical reference document seeks to present the background, inputs and assumptions, methodology, and results of the policy analysis in detail. The intended audience is the technical modeler, analyst, or reviewer who seeks to understand specifically the modeling effort within this initial analytical phase, with the end-goal of interpreting, re-producing, or modifying the simulations or extending the models to conduct follow-on studies subsequently. These studies may examine in greater detail the energy sector, impacts to emissions, charging station infrastructure needs, and overall benefits-cost trade of the policy, among other areas of interest.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microscopic ejecta measurements from hypervelocity impacts on aluminum and powdered regolith targets

Meteoroids and space debris pose a two-fold threat to spacecraft due to the risk of both mechanical damage from the impact and electrical damage from the impact-generated plasma, which produces electromagnetic emissions. Analysis of impact products, however, has the potential to provide useful information about planetary rings and small solar system bodies, such as asteroids and comets. Understanding the plasma dynamics and radiation mechanism is essential to addressing the impact threat and extracting science data from impacts. Charge attachment to condensed-phase debris may lead to a dusty plasma under certain conditions, so interpreting hypervelocity impacts requires knowledge of both the nature of the plasma and of the ejecta. We address the latter with measurements of the microscopic ejecta distribution produced by light gas gun impacts on solid aluminum and powdered regolith simulant targets. We examine both the size and shape of the ejecta using thin-film witness plates and find that the size distributions of microscopic ejecta follow power laws. Observations from the powdered regolith simulant match well with disruption experiments of solid basalt, while measurements from the aluminum impacts diverge from extrapolations based on studies of macroscopic debris. Analysis of the ejecta shape shows a transition from smooth to irregularly shaped ejecta at the material grain size, and the shape of debris may provide insight on the phase of the ejected material. Finally, based on our results, we predict a significant number of secondary impacts on plasma sensors due to ejecta, even at considerable distance from the target, supporting the hypothesis that charged dust affects plasma measurements in the ejecta curtain.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatological analysis of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological extremes in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

Abstract Research efforts related to landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) and their hydrological impacts have focused mostly on the continental or regional scales, whereas many coastal management and infrastructure decisions are made at much finer spatial scales. In this context, this study aims to provide local-scale understandings of the climatological characteristics and hydrological impacts of TCs (from 1950 to 2019) over the Mid-Atlantic region defined as the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and Susquehanna River Basin (SRB). The climatological analysis is based on analyzing long-term, spatially distributed observational datasets of hurricane tracks, precipitation, and streamflows. Results suggest that, despite limited contribution of TCs to regional precipitation (<9%), TC is the dominant driver for extreme floods in the southern part of DRB (e.g. tributaries of the Christina River and lower Schuylkill River) and the southwestern portions of SRB (e.g. tributaries of the Lower Susquehanna and Junita River), where TC’s effect on drought alleviation is also comparatively higher. At the basin level, SRB is more susceptible to flooding associated with TCs and prone to drought relative to DRB; however, strong spatial variability of TC’s impact on hydrological extremes is observed within and across the basins. While the TC effect on flood/drought is negligible for the high-elevation, northern part of the region, TC increases the magnitude of the 100 year flood by up to 19.6% in DRB and 53.0% in SRB; the duration of short-term extreme hydrological drought is reduced by TC by up to 25.0% in SRB and 24.7% in DRB, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Completion Design Impact on Cluster Efficiency and Pressure-Based Well Communication in HFTS-2 Delaware Basin

The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS-2) is a joint industry project in the Delaware basin to advance hydraulic fracturing understanding and improve productivity in shale reservoirs. The project integrates multi-disciplinary approaches to evaluate different completion designs, well spacing, inter-well communication, and stimulated rock volume, among other factors. This paper focused on two major areas related to hydraulic fracture performance. First, an analysis of different completion designs on cluster efficiency based on near well Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). Second, an evaluation of well and completion designs on inter-well fracture driven interactions (FDIs) based on downhole pressure monitoring. Fluid/sand distribution and cluster efficiency analyses were based on near wellbore DAS data collected from two adjacent horizontal wells completed in two different landing zones in the Wolfcamp formation. These wells had different completion designs aiming to evaluate the effect of normal vs. extended stage lengths, perforation hole tapering and limited entry. Standard deviation from ideal fluid/sand distribution and waterfall plots were used to evaluate cluster efficiency for each design and stage. Inter-well FDIs analysis was conducted among the horizontal wells and a vertical monitor well. One horizontal well served as the monitor well while the other horizontal well was being treated. The vertical well was instrumented with downhole pressure and temperature gauges to aid monitoring fracture height growth. The pressure response during and after fracturing was characterized based on maximum pressure increase value and slope. Pressure response vs. FDIs trigger factors such distance, cluster efficiency and stage fluid volume were also analyzed. Based on the different completion and perforation designs tested, DAS analysis suggests that limited entry design worked best. Extreme limited entry showed the potential of high perforation erosion and reduced cluster efficiency. Here, the limited entry and tapered perforation design demonstrated potential to improve the cluster efficiency for extended stage lengths. Pressure monitoring across formation units proved to be critical to understand fracture interactions and fracture vertical growth. Pressure communication across different formation units during hydraulic fracturing operation indicate fractures grew upwards during Wolfcamp wells fracturing. However, this pressure communication dissipated over time. High intensity FDIs were recorded when the frac stages Downloaded from http://onepetro.org/URTECONF/proceedings-pdf/21URTC/1-21URTC/D011S018R001/2477607/urtec-2021-5289-ms.pdf/1 by Carol Worster on 28 February 2022 URTeC 5289 were closer to the pressure gauge location in the monitor wells. Some of these stages that produced high intensity FDIs also had high fluid volume per cluster and low cluster efficiency. The multi-disciplinary and high-quality data collected from HFTS-2 helped to further understand why completion approaches such as limited entry and tapered perforation design are successful in improving cluster efficiency. The DAS data combined with downhole high-resolution pressure measurements also helped to quantify the effect of lower cluster efficiency data on the incidence and intensity of FDIs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis for characterizing the impact of HNGD model on the prediction of hydrogen redistribution in Zircaloy cladding using BISON code

Hydrogen in zirconium cladding is able to precipitate into zirconium hydrides which impacts cladding integrity. The Hydride Nucleation-Growth-Dissolution (HNGD) model in the BISON code accounts for the precipitation and dissolution kinetics of hydride in Zircaloy material. This paper presents global sensitivity analyses of the HNGD model aiming to enhance our understanding of the hydride precipitation phenomena by quantifying the variance that key parameters have on the prediction of hydrogen behavior under various environmental conditions. Here, model predictions are compared to experimental data obtained under two different conditions: 1) with uniformly precharged specimens subjected to a linear thermal gradient, and 2) specimens precharged with a cathodically applied hydride rim at one end of the sample and subjected to an asymmetric thermal gradient. The Sobol sensitivity analysis identifies the key parameters in the HNGD model for both types of specimens. For linear temperature cases, the heat of transport dominates the accuracy of predictions when no precipitation occurs at the cold end, while Terminal Solid Solubility for Dissolution (TSSD) is the most important parameter when precipitation occurs. A large variation in the predicted hydrogen concentration profiles is found in the range of high TSSD due to the occurrence of precipitation. For asymmetric temperature cases, the solubility coefficient gives the largest impact on the predicted hydrogen distribution, as it determines the amount of solute hydrogen dissolved from the initially applied hydride rim. A large discrepancy in hydrogen distribution between simulations and experiments exists with the asymmetric specimens because BISON simulations fail to predict the precipitation of hydride at the cooler end. Comparative studies using former and updated models verifies the significant impact of the hydride growth mechanism on predicted hydrogen concentration profiles. In particular, when hydride initially exists, changes in TSSD generate a large variation in the predicted amount of precipitation by hydride growth, giving large uncertainty in predicting the hydrogen distribution over the sample length. The outputs characterize the significant impact of the hydride growth mechanism in the HNGD model on predicting hydrogen behavior, and improve the understanding of the precipitation of hydride in Zircaloy cladding within a range of expected environmental conditions. The analyses indicate work is still needed to improve the hydride solvus models in the BISON code to accurately predict experimentally observed hydride concentrations and distributions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gasification and Techno-Economic Analysis of High-Impact Biomass Feedstocks for the Synthesis of High-Octane Gasoline

Five economically advantaged biomass feedstocks identified in the US Department of Energy's 2016 Billion Ton Study were gasified and the syngas reformed at the bench scale to study the feedstock price-performance relationship. The distribution of reformed syngas compositions, heating values, and yields were similar across the different feedstocks and blends thereof, which ranged from inexpensive residual wastes to more expensive and higher quality biomass, revealing that feedstock performance was mostly insensitive to its price. Custom blended feedstocks produced syngas with characteristics resembling linear combinations of syngas from single-component feedstocks, supporting the ability to customize and predict blended properties based on single-feedstock data. A techno-economic analysis of specific feedstock costs for producing high-octane gasoline showed that miscanthus and forest residues were the most cost-effective with gas yields consistent with experimental gasification data. A field-to-wheels life-cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions showed that forest residues was the most environmentally benign feedstock of those studied.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nonlinear analysis and vibro-impact characteristics of a shaft-bearing assembly

Here this study investigates the nonlinear frequency response of a shaft-bearing assembly with vibro-impacts occurring at the bearing clearances. The formation of nonlinear behavior as system parameters change is examined, along with the effects of asymmetries in the nominal, inherently symmetric system. The primary effect of increasing the forcing magnitude or decreasing the contact gap sizes is the formation of grazing-induced chaotic solution branches occurring over a wide frequency range near each system resonance. The system's nominal setup has very hard contact stiffness and shows no evidence of isolas or superharmonic resonances over the frequency ranges of interest. Moderate contact stiffnesses cause symmetry breaking and introduce superharmonic resonance branches of primary resonances. Even if some primary resonances are not present due to the system's inherent symmetry, their superharmonic resonances still manifest. Branches of quasiperiodic isolas (isolated resonance branches) are also discovered, along with a cloud of isolas near a high-frequency resonance. Parameter asymmetries are found to produce a few significant changes in behavior: asymmetric linear stiffness, contact stiffness, and gap size could affect the behavior of primary resonant frequencies and isolas.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Analysis of Post Attack Impacts and Effects of Learning Parameters on Vulnerability Assessment of Power Grid

Due to the increasing number of heterogeneous devices connected to electric power grid, the attack surface increases the threat actors. Game theory and machine learning are being used to study the power system failures caused by external manipulation. Most of existing works in the literature focus on one-shot process of attacks and fail to show the dynamic evolution of the defense strategy. In this paper, we focus on an adversarial multistage sequential game between the adversaries of the smart electric power transmission and distribution system. We study the impact of exploration rate and convergence of the attack strategies (sequences of action that creates large scale blackout based on the system capacity) based on the reinforcement learning approach. We also illustrate how the learned attack actions disrupt the normal operation of the grid by creating transmission line outages, bus voltage violations, and generation loss. This simulation studies are conducted on IEEE 9 and 39 bus systems. The results show the improvement of the defense strategy through the learning process. The results also prove the feasibility of the learned attack actions by replicating the disturbances created in simulated power system.

attack impacts↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Interconnection Queue Impacts Using Hosting Capacity Analysis

The interconnection queue has been identified as a bottleneck in the efforts to shift the nations generation resources towards renewable sources and meet various state and federal goals. Efforts such as the interconnection innovation e-Xchange (i2X) are therefore trying to come up with ways in which the queue could be altered to make interconnection faster, cheaper, and fairer. This paper proposes using hosting capacity analysis methods to simulate the evolution of a power system as new resources are added. Modeling the interconnection process in this way enables simulation based study of various policy decisions for queue management and cost allocation. Sample results are presented to illustrate how some queue modifications might play out both in distribution and transmission systems.

Distributed Energy Resources, Interconnection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation Analysis of Mode Hopping Impacts on OFDR Sensing Performance

This article examines the impacts of mode hopping on the sensing performance of optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) and explores the potential for developing economical OFDR interrogators employing low-cost distributed feedback (DFB) lasers. By conducting numerical simulations, this study reveals that mode hopping has minimal effects on distance sensing measurements in free space due to the limited duration of beat interference signal at the incorrect frequency within the coherence length. Additionally, the simulations indicate that mode hopping only slightly affects the distributed strain sensing of OFDR, resulting in an error range of less than ±1µε when 100µε is applied to the sensing fiber. These findings highlight the potential of using low-cost DFB lasers with a 1-nm wavelength sweep range and a 1-MHz linewidth as tunable laser sources in OFDR while maintaining reliable and accurate sensing performance.

Wang, Qirui (ORCID:0000000336532984)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulator Data Analysis to Inform Digitalized Environment Impacts on Human Reliability

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed a human reliability analysis (HRA) method, termed the Integrated Human Event Analysis System for Event and Condition Assessment (IDHEAS-ECA), in order to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in risk-informed regulatory applications. To update the quantification part of IDHEAS-ECA, the NRC required human performance and error data from fully digitalized main control rooms (MCRs); therefore, it requested that Idaho National Laboratory (INL) revisit previous data collection studies and investigate how the following three factors impact human reliability: self-checking, peer-checking, and automation. The HRA data collection studies revisited were the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) project, developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), and the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP), developed by INL. HuREX is a representative HRA data collection study that collects human reliability data from full-scope simulators staffed by licensed operators. SHEEP, on the other hand, has been proposed to complement such full-scope studies by collecting data via simplified simulators staffed by non-licensed student operators. In the HuREX study, KAERI collected HRA data from fully digitalized MCRs for the Advanced Power Reactor (APR)–1400. The SHEEP data were obtained from simplified simulators that partially mimicked the features of digitalized MCRs. The present report mainly discusses how the impacts of the aforementioned three factors on human errors were derived from these two data collection studies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Mitigating the Impact of Extragalactic Foregrounds for the DR6 Cosmic Microwave Background Lensing Analysis

We investigate the impact and mitigation of extragalactic foregrounds for the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing power spectrum analysis of Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data release 6 (DR6) data. Two independent microwave sky simulations are used to test a range of mitigation strategies. We demonstrate that finding and then subtracting point sources, finding and then subtracting models of clusters, and using a profile bias-hardened lensing estimator together reduce the fractional biases to well below statistical uncertainties, with the inferred lensing amplitude, A lens , biased by less than 0.2σ. We also show that another method where a model for the cosmic infrared background (CIB) contribution is deprojected and high-frequency data from Planck is included has similar performance. Other frequency-cleaned options do not perform as well, either incurring a large noise cost or resulting in biased recovery of the lensing spectrum. In addition to these simulation-based tests, we also present null tests on the ACT DR6 data for sensitivity of our lensing spectrum estimation to differences in foreground levels between the two ACT frequencies used, while nulling the CMB lensing signal. These tests pass whether the nulling is performed at the map or bandpower level. The CIB-deprojected measurement performed on the DR6 data is consistent with our baseline measurement, implying that contamination from the CIB is unlikely to significantly bias the DR6 lensing spectrum. This collection of tests gives confidence that the ACT DR6 lensing measurements and cosmological constraints presented in companion papers to this work are robust to extragalactic foregrounds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing

This work investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Weather and Climate Extremes Impact on Power System Outage

This paper provides statistical analysis of the characteristics of power system outages to gain a better understanding of the impacts of the increasing severe weather conditions on the outages. 10-year historical power system outage data from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) were gathered together with co-located weather attributes and recorded extreme weather events in the service area, which are paired in comparable spatial and temporal scales, with a focus on each outage transmission line. Statistical frequency analysis and cross-tabular evaluation are performed to investigate the occurring frequency and duration of outages associated with extreme weather in this area of study. The study reveals that the weather-related outages can be mainly attributed to hail and thunderstorm events which correspond to up to 60% out of all failures in several transmission line types.

Ren, Huiying↗