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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts for Predictive Voltage Control

This paper explores predictive cooperative voltage control in distribution systems with highly variable sources such as photovoltaics (PV). The goal is to maintain the voltage profile within the limits despite the fluctuations due to sudden changes in solar power generation. The predictive voltage control method relies on probabilistic solar power and load forecasts to select the optimum Voltage Regulator (VR) taps appropriately. VR taps are selected to minimize the risk of voltage violation. A modified version of the IEEE 123 system is used as the case study. A 100% penetration of solar power is assumed for the distribution system with profiles for solar generation and loads added to the system. Three different probabilistic forecast models (Quantile Regression (QR), Gaussian distribution and volatility forecasting using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)) are explored in this study. The results for the VR taps and Voltage Deviation Index (VDI) are compared to find the most effective forecast model.

Panamtash, Hossein↗
DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Photovoltaic Failures with Hidden Markov Modeling, an Unsupervised Statistical Approach

Failure detection methods are of significant interest for photovoltaic (PV) site operators to help reduce gaps between expected and observed energy generation. Current approaches for field-based fault detection, however, rely on multiple data inputs and can suffer from interpretability issues. In contrast, this work offers an unsupervised statistical approach that leverages hidden Markov models (HMM) to identify failures occurring at PV sites. Using performance index data from 104 sites across the United States, individual PV-HMM models are trained and evaluated for failure detection and transition probabilities. This analysis indicates that the trained PV-HMM models have the highest probability of remaining in their current state (87.1% to 93.5%), whereas the transition probability from normal to failure (6.5%) is lower than the transition from failure to normal (12.9%) states. A comparison of these patterns using both threshold levels and operations and maintenance (O&M) tickets indicate high precision rates of PV-HMMs (median = 82.4%) across all of the sites. Although additional work is needed to assess sensitivities, the PV-HMM methodology demonstrates significant potential for real-time failure detection as well as extensions into predictive maintenance capabilities for PV.

classification↗
DOE OSTI2020

A computationally-efficient method for flamelet calculations

A new open-source code for the simulation of the diffusion flamelet equations is proposed. Emphasis is placed on using an approximate Jacobian to reduce the computational cost of the matrix operations. Performance of the proposed solvers is tested by performing flamelet calculations with kinetic mechanisms of varying sizes. For the unity Lewis number equations, the present iterative Newton solver using an approximate Jacobian greatly outperforms direct Newton solvers using exact Jacobians. The computation cost scales linearly with the number of species, leading to a reduction in solution times by two orders of magnitude for mechanisms containing thousands of species. The applicability of the Jacobian approximations to the solution of the non-unity Lewis number flamelet equations is assessed. The approximations are generally inadequate to solve the full non-unity Lewis number equations but can be used in some applications depending on the balance of terms in the flamelet equations. As an example, the flamelet solver is applied to the study of sooting tendencies in laminar co-flow diffusion flames where modified non-unity Lewis number flamelet equations, previously shown to accurately reproduce experimentally-measured Yield Sooting Indices (YSI), are solved. Here, the accelerated flamelet solver is well suited for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification with large detailed kinetic mechanisms, tasks for which the computational cost was previously prohibitive.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

From observation to replication: machine-learning-driven quantification and replication of fine-scale fish kinematics and behavior

Long-term quantification of fish behavior is essential for aquatic ecology, wildlife telemetry, and biomechanical device development. However, the observation duration required to obtain reliable behavioral and kinematic metrics remains unclear, and few tools exist to physically reproduce natural swimming motion for controlled experimentation. We address these challenges by developing a generalizable framework that models behavioral reliability (Spearman–Brown reliability index) as a function of observation duration and derives metric-specific monitoring thresholds. Using juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) as a case study, we demonstrate that the minimum duration needed for reliable estimates varies substantially across kinematic features: to exceed a reliability of 0.8, total distance traveled requires 12 days, average curvature (mm?¹) 15 days, tail-beat frequency (Hz) 8 days, and average speed (body length/s) 17 days. We further bridge digital analysis and physical testing by developing a hardware-in-the-loop simulator that reconstructs machine-learning-derived swimming kinematics with high fidelity (correlation coefficient 0.98–0.99, RMSE 1.22–1.27 mm over a 5-minute segment). This platform enables realistic, repeatable motion stimuli for evaluating aquatic sensing technologies and bio-integrated devices under controlled conditions. Together, these contributions provide a scalable approach for designing long-term behavioral studies and a data-driven connection between ecological observation and robotic experimentation.

Hwang, SungJoo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of Standard and Advanced USL Methodologies for Nuclear Criticality Safety

The American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society national standards 8.1 and 8.24 provide guidance on the requirements and recommendations for establishing confidence in the results of the computerized models used to support operation with fissionable materials. By design, the guidance is not prescriptive, leaving freedom to the analysts to determine how the various sources of uncertainties are to be statistically aggregated. Due to the involved use of statistics entangled with heuristic recipes, the resulting safety margins are often difficult to interpret. Also, these technical margins are augmented by additional administrative margins, which are required to ensure compliance with safety standards or regulations, eliminating the incentive to understand their differences. With the new resurgent wave of advanced nuclear systems, e.g., advanced reactors, fuel cycles, and fuel concepts, focused on economizing operation, there is a strong need to develop a clear understanding of the uncertainties and their consolidation methods to reduce them in manners that can be scientifically defended. In response, the current studies compare the analyses behind four notable methodologies for upper subcriticality limit estimation that have been documented in the nuclear criticality safety literature: the parametric, nonparametric, Whisper, and TSURFER methodologies. Specifically, the work offers a deep dive into the various assumptions of the noted methodologies, their adequacies, and their limitations to provide guidance on developing confidence for the emergent nuclear systems that are expected to be challenged by the scarcity of experimental data. Here, to limit the scope, the current work focuses on the application of these methodologies to criticality safety experiments, where the goal is to calculate a bias, a bias uncertainty, and a tolerance limit for k eff in support of determining an upper subcriticality limit for nuclear criticality safety.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optical and magneto-optical properties of ferromagnetic monolayer CrBr 3 : A first-principles G W and G W plus Bethe-Salpeter equation study

The discovery of atomically thin two-dimensional (2D) magnetic semiconductors has triggered enormous research interest recently. In this paper, we use first-principles many-body perturbation theory to study a prototypical 2D ferromagnetic semiconductor, monolayer chromium tribromide (CrBr 3 ). With broken time-reversal symmetry, spin-orbit coupling, and excitonic effects included through the full-spinor GW and GW plus Bethe-Salpeter equation (GW-BSE) methods, we compute the frequency-dependent layer polarizability tensor and dielectric function tensor that govern the optical and magneto-optical (MO) properties. In addition, we provide a detailed theoretical formalism for simulating magnetic circular dichroism, MO Kerr effect, and Faraday effect, demonstrating the approach with monolayer CrBr 3 . Due to reduced dielectric screening in 2D and the localized nature of the Cr d orbitals, we find strong self-energy effects on the quasiparticle band structure of monolayer CrBr 3 that give a 3.8 eV indirect bandgap. Also, excitonic effects dominate the low-energy optical and MO responses in monolayer CrBr 3 where a large exciton binding energy of 2.3 eV is found for the lowest bright exciton state with excitation energy at 1.5 eV. We further find that the MO signals demonstrate strong dependence on the excitation frequency and substrate refractive index. Furthermore, our theoretical framework for modeling optical and MO effects could serve as a powerful theoretical tool for future study of optoelectronic and spintronics devices consisting of van der Waals 2D magnets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comprehensive Efficiency Analysis of Current Source Inverter Based SPM Machine Drive System for Traction Applications

A current-source inverter (CSI) has the natural capability of boosting the output voltage which is a notable advantage over voltage source inverter (VSI) in traction drive applications. This paper investigates the voltage boosting feature of the CSI to improve the overall efficiency of the CSI-based surface permanent magnet (SPM) machine drive system in the constant power region. The effects of the boost function on the total system losses, including the machine copper loss, core loss, and magnet loss, as well as the device conduction and switching loss in the CSI and dc/dc converter, are described using analytical models. The operating characteristics of the machine and CSI are validated by 2-D finite-element analysis (FEA) and simulations. Based on the loss model, the effects of the modulation index on the overall drive system losses and power factor have been analyzed. A genetic algorithm has been used to optimize the CSI's boost ratio, demonstrating that the drive system efficiency can be increased by 1% to 2.5% along the constant-power regime envelope by using the boost function.

current source inverter, genetic algorithm, SPM ma↗
DOE OSTI2020

Association between algal productivity and phycosphere composition in an outdoor Chlorella sorokiniana reactor based on multiple longitudinal analyses

Summary Microalgae as a biofuel source are of great interest. Bacterial phycosphere inhabitants of algal cultures are hypothesized to contribute to productivity. In this study, the bacterial composition of the Chlorella sorokiniana phycosphere was determined over several production cycles in different growing seasons by 16S rRNA gene sequencing and identification. The diversity of the phycosphere increased with time during each individual reactor run, based on Faith’s phylogenetic diversity metric versus days post‐inoculation ( R = 0.66, P < 0.001). During summer months, Vampirovibrio chlorellavorus , an obligate predatory bacterium, was prevalent. Bacterial sequences assigned to the Rhizobiales, Betaproteobacteriales and Chitinophagales were positively associated with algal biomass productivity. Applications of the general biocide, benzalkonium chloride, to a subset of experiments intended to abate V. chlorellavorus appeared to temporarily suppress phycosphere bacterial growth, however, there was no relationship between those bacterial taxa suppressed by benzalkonium chloride and their association with algal productivity, based on multinomial model correlations. Algal health was approximated using a model‐based metric, or the ‘Health Index’ that indicated a robust, positive relationship between C. sorokiniana fitness and presence of members belonging to the Burholderiaceae and Allorhizobium–Neorhizobium–Pararhizobium–Rhizobium clade. Bacterial community composition was linked to the efficiency of microalgal biomass production and algal health.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Formation of active sites on transition metals through reaction-driven migration of surface atoms

Adopting low-index single-crystal surfaces as models for metal nanoparticle catalysts has been questioned by the experimental findings of adsorbate-induced formation of subnanometer clusters on several single-crystal surfaces. Here we used density functional theory calculations to elucidate the conditions that lead to cluster formation and show how adatom formation energies enable efficient screening of the conditions required for adsorbate-induced cluster formation. We studied a combination of eight face-centered cubic transition metals and 18 common surface intermediates and identified systems relevant to catalytic reactions, such as carbon monoxide (CO) oxidation and ammonia (NH 3 ) oxidation. We used kinetic Monte Carlo simulations to elucidate the CO-induced cluster formation process on a copper surface. Scanning tunneling microscopy of CO on a nickel (111) surface that contains steps and dislocations points to the structure sensitivity of this phenomenon. Metal-metal bond breaking that leads to the evolution of catalyst structures under realistic reaction conditions occurs much more broadly than previously thought.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reconstructing f ( T ) gravity and exploring the torsion driven warm inflationary cosmology

The current paper reports an investigation of a warm inflationary scenario in the context of f(T) gravity for a spatially flat FLRW universe. In our model, inflation is driven purely by the torsional sector of f(T) gravity, without introducing any additional scalar fields. We focus on the high dissipative regime (R >> 1), reconstruct the Hubble parameter as a function of the e-folding number N, and derive the slow-roll parameters ε 1 (N) and ε 2 (N). The study has encapsulated the dynamics of inflation and its duration under strong dissipation. The dissipative coefficient Γ is modeled with a temperature-dependent power-law form, linking the inflationary dynamics to thermal corrections and the particle content of the early universe. The analysis has affirmed that the torsion-induced energy density ρ T successfully transitions to radiation energy density ρ rad , facilitating a graceful exit from inflation. Finally, we have validated our model by comparing the scalar spectral index and tensor-to-scalar ratio with Planck 2018 results, demonstrating consistency within observational bounds. Additionally, it is verified that the thermal domination condition T * /H > 1 and the torsion dominance condition ρ T /ρ rad > 1 are satisfied.

Ghosh, Moli [Amity University, Kolkata (India); Mr↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projection of Future Fire Emissions Over the Contiguous US Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence and CMIP6 Models

Abstract Increasing temperature and water cycle changes due to warming climate may increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Fire emission projections are useful for informing strategies for adaptation and mitigation of fire impacts on societies and ecosystems. Here, we construct a neural network (NN) model explained by the Shapley Additive explanation to predict fire PM 2.5 emissions change and understand their drivers over the contiguous US (CONUS) in the mid‐21st century under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Using future meteorology and leaf area index (LAI) simulated by eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, future population density, and present‐day land use and land cover (LULC) as input to the NN model, the total fire PM 2.5 emissions over CONUS are projected to increase by 4%–75% (model spread). Among different regions, fire emissions in the western US are projected to increase more significantly in June‐July‐August than in other seasons and regions, with the median ratios of future to present‐day fire emissions ranging from 1.67 to 2.86. The increases in fire emissions are mainly driven by increasing normalized temperature (23%–29%) and decreasing soil moisture (2%–10%) in the future. When future LULC change is considered, the projected fire emissions further increase by 58%–83% over the western US compared to projections without LULC change because of future increases in vegetation fraction. The results highlight the important role of warmer temperature, decreasing soil moisture, and LULC change in increasing fire emissions in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

NATURF: Urban Building Parameters for Chicago, Illinois, USA at a 100m resolution

132 Urban parameters based on building physical dimensions and location were generated for the city of Chicago at 100m resolution using the NATURF model. To use the binary file with WRF, the binary file and the index file must be placed in their own directory in WRF_GEOG and accessed in the same way NUDAPT44 would be accessed.

Vernon, Chris R [Pacific Northwest National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of Interparticle Spacing Model to Maximize Filler Content in Cementitious Pastes

One of the most impactful ways to reduce embodied carbon of concrete in the near term is by partially replacing Portland cement with supplementary cementitious materials and/or fillers. This article describes an approach to reduce cement content in concrete through the development of high filler, low water (HFLW) cementitious pastes. Pastes with cement content as low as 50% (% weight of fines) were designed by applying models that maximize the packing density of the granular system and that consider the characteristics of the materials to calculate interparticle spacing (IPS), thereby allowing to obtain pastes with higher solids concentration and lower water demand. Strong correlations were found between IPS, the consistency index of the Herschel-Bulkley rheological model, and cement hydration kinetic parameters of binary and ternary pastes containing a Portland limestone cement and up to two different types of ground limestone. The approach showed to be feasible for the design of HFLW concrete paste fraction.

Antunes da Silva, Denise↗
DOE OSTI2026

MOSAIC-CONUS: A Multimodal, Multi-Temporally Paired Dataset for Earth Sciences

Earth embeddings—vector representations of geographic locations indexed in space and time—are emerging as a unifying interface for geospatial AI. However, their quality depends not only on model design, but on how multimodal Earth observation (EO) data are spatially indexed, temporally aligned, and cross-modally associated during pretraining. We introduce MOSAIC-CONUS (Multimodal Observations with Spatially Aligned Imagery, Urban Points of Interest, In-Situ Measurements and Text Captions), a large-scale EO dataset over the contiguous United States, organized around 250,000 stratified point indices that serve as stable spatial keys across seven modalities: active radar, passive optical imagery, lidar-derived elevation, land cover, functional context, hydrometeorological measurements, and textual summaries. Unlike existing EO datasets, MOSAIC-CONUS introduces four contributions not jointly addressed in prior work: 1. an open-source, large-scale multimodal EO corpus structured around point-indexed data designed to support Earth embedding learning; 2. explicit radar-optical pairing tables spanning twelve temporal alignment regimes, formalizing cross-sensor alignment as a controllable variable for analyzing how temporal mismatch across modalities influences learned embeddings quality; 3. a benchmark suite spanning cross-modal retrieval, annual nightlights regression, and basin-held-out streamflow prediction, positioning MOSAIC-CONUS as a benchmark-ready resource for multimodal AI systems; and 4. a language-based embedding layer through co-registered textual summaries, enabling Earth embeddings to function as a queryable interface for agentic AI systems. The dataset and pairing protocols are publicly released.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow to compare these models can help to describe and explain differences in model projections. This also increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler et al., 2015). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index (RAI), emission reduction type index (ERT), inertia timescale (IT), fossil fuel reduction (FFR), transformation index (TI) and cost per abatement value (CAV). We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, including both older version as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6). The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and allows for comparison of model versions in time. The indicators and their trends can often be explained in terms of model characteristics and changes. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide an useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend across the different models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Graded Buffer Bragg Reflectors with High Reflectivity and Transparency for Metamorphic Optoelectronics

A graded buffer Bragg reflector (GBBR) is a bifunctional device component that provides the reflection of a distributed Bragg reflector and the adjustable lattice constant of a compositionally graded buffer. Prior work showed that these properties can be combined with low threading dislocation density and high reflectivity. Here, we design and demonstrate complex GBBRs for specific metamorphic solar cell applications. We design buffers that provide (1) high reflectivity over a narrow bandwidth, for quantum well solar cells, (2) reflectivity over a wide bandwidth, for optically thin solar cells, and (3) low sidelobe reflection, for multijunction devices that demand low out-of-band reflection. Apodized and triple GBBRs are demonstrated, and transparency is always considered, requiring designs with carefully engineered material combinations. A GBBR with a reflection of 99% is demonstrated, as well as a triple GBBR that has over 80% reflection for 100?nm of the spectrum around 800?nm. We also analyze potential deviations in a baseline GBBR from that of a perfect DBR using transmission electron microscopy to analyze imperfections in the material and modeling to analyze the impact of imperfect refractive index data for lattice-mismatched AlGaInAs. Minimal crosshatch roughness and unintentional thickness variation occur throughout the buffer, which likely influences reflection slightly. Small deviations between the calculated AlGaInAs and utilized AlGaAs refractive index exist, giving methods for future GBBR improvement. While the GBBR designs are intended for metamorphic solar cells, the broad and high reflection may also be useful for other optoelectronic devices such as light-emitting diodes or lasers.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Semi-automated Design of Artificial Intelligence Earth Systems Models

Prediction and observation of water cycles at various scales involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but also modeling of complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple domains. For instance, evapotranspiration (ET) and leaf area indexes (LAI) are two parameters that are needed to accurately model and understand land-atmosphere processes. Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFTs), which fail to capture fine-scale variations because of changes in vegetation type across the globe. Similarly LAI estimates have typically been derived from vegetation indices at global scales or estimated locally using physical models, both of which suffer from a range of uncertainties that impact model sensitivity. The new era of AI model development for Earth systems (ES) calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with uncertainty-aware estimations of biophysical parameters such as ET and LAI in a generalizable, interpretable, and discoverable manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗