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NASA NTRS1995

Sensitivity of the 6300 A twilight airglow to neutral composition

The field line interhemispheric plasma (FLIP) model is used to study the 6300 A line intensity measured during three morning twilights from the McDonald Observatory in Texas. The Imaging Spectrometric Observatory (ISO) measured the 6300 A intensity during the winter of 1987 and the spring and summer of 1988. The FLIP model reproduces the measured intensity and its variation through the twilight well on each day using neutral densities from the MSIS-86 empirical model. This is in spite of the fact that different component sources dominate the integrated volume emission rate on each of the days analyzed. The sensitivity of the intensity to neutral composition is computed by varying the N2, O2, and O densities in the FLIP model and comparing to the intensity computed with the unmodified MSIS-86 densities. The ion densities change self-consistently. Thus the change in neutral composition also changes the electron density. The F2 peak height is unchanged in the model runs for a given day. The intensity changes near 100 deg SZA are comparable to within 10% when either (O2), (N2), or (O) is changed, regardless of which component source is dominant. There is strong sensitivity to changes in (N2) when dissociative recombination is dominant, virtually no change in the nighttime (SZA greater than or equal to 108 deg) intensity with (O2) doubled, and sensitivity of over 50% to doubling or halving (O) at night. When excitation by conjugate photoelectrons is the dominant nighttime component source, the relative intensity change with (O) doubled or halved is very small. This study shows the strong need for simultaneous measurements of electron density and of emissions proportional to photoelectron fluxes if the 6300 A twilight airglow is to be used to retrieve neutral densities.

Melendez-Alvira, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Effects of plasmaspheric ion heating due to ionospheric and magnetospheric sources

In an initial study, the He(+) observations from the Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer on Dynamics Explorer 1 (RIMS/DE 1) was examined for more than 120 transits of the plasmasphere in the fall of 1981. The He(+) to H(+) ratio was determined as it varied spatially over portions of the DE 1 orbit, and its variation with solar and magnetic activities and with local time, focusing specifically on the inner plasmasphere. These variations were compared along the L = 2 field line with calculations made by the Field Line Interhemispheric Plasma (FLIP) code. In a recently submitted paper, the He(+) to H(+) density ratio was examined for all the available data from 1981 to 1984 from the RIMS on DE 1. There are two basic characteristics of the ratio: one is that the ratio decreases with radial distance in the plasmasphere, and the other is the strong dependence of the density ratio on solar activity. In addition to the He(+)/H(+) ratio research, a phenomenon has been studied in the topside ionosphere which relates to the thermal coupling of the ionosphere to the plasmasphere. There is little or no correlation with magnetic and solar activity here. Another study has been directed toward the relation of plasma properties to the density gradients forming the plasmapause. The study has followed a two-pronged approach. First, the observations have been analyzed to determine what happens to the plasma properties across these boundary layers (density gradients). Second, comparisons were made with FLIP model calculations to determine how well the model is able to treat these conditions. Among the significant lessons learned in these studies are two that bear directly on the direction of future investigations in this area. First, composition cannot be viewed independently of thermal structure. Second, solar and magnetic activity effects are real; but the causal relationship between activity and effects is frequently quite complicated because several different processes appear to be operating in different ways and on different time scales. Under these circumstances, large correlation coefficients should not be expected and are not generally found.

Comfort, Richard H.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Global, Collisional Model of High-Energy Photoelectrons

A previously-developed colissional, interhemispheric flux tube model for photoelectrons (PE) has been extended to three dimensions by including transport due to vector E x vector B and magnetic gradient-curvature drifts. Using this model, initial calculations of the high-energy (greater then 50 eV) PE distribution as a function of time, energy, pitch angle, and spatial location in the equatorial plane, are reported for conditions of low geomagnetic activity. To explore both the dynamic and steady behaviors of the model, the simulation starts with the abrupt onset of photoelectron excitation, and is followed to steady state conditions. The results illustrate several features of the interaction of photoelectrons with typical magnetospheric plasmas and fields, including collisional diffusion of photoelectrons in pitch angle with flux tube filling, diurnal intensity and pitch angle asymmetries introduced by directional sunlight, and energization of the photoelectron distribution in the evening sector. Cross-field drift is shown to have a long time scale, taking 12 to 24 hours to reach a steady state distribution. Future applications of the model are briefly outlined.

Khazanov, G. V.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Global Distribution of Density Irregularities in the Equatorial Ionosphere

We analyzed measurements of ion number density made by the retarding potential analyzer aboard the Atmosphere Explorer-E (AE-E) satellite, which was in an approximately circular orbit at an altitude near 300 km in 1977 and later at an altitude near 400 km. Large-scale (greater than 60 km) density measurements in the high-altitude regions show large depletions of bubble-like structures which are confined to narrow local time longitude, and magnetic latitude ranges, while those in the low-altitude regions show relatively small depletions which are broadly distributed,in space. For this reason we considered the altitude regions below 300 km and above 350 km and investigated the global distribution of irregularities using the rms deviation delta N/N over a path length of 18 km as an indicator of overall irregularity intensity. Seasonal variations of irregularity occurrence probability are significant in the Pacific regions, while the occurrence probability is always high in die Atlantic-African regions and is always low in die Indian regions. We find that the high occurrence probability in the Pacific regions is associated with isolated bubble structures, while that near 0 deg longitude is produced by large depictions with bubble structures which are superimposed on a large-scale wave-like background. Considerations of longitude variations due to seeding mechanisms and due to F region winds and drifts are necessary to adequately explain the observations at low and high altitudes. Seeding effects are most obvious near 0 deg longitude, while the most easily observed effect of the F region is the suppression of irregularity growth by interhemispheric neutral winds.

Kil, Hyosub↗
NASA NTRS1999

Physical and Chemical Characterization of Particles in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Microanalysis of Aerosol Impactor Samples

Herein is reported activities to support the characterization of the aerosol in the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) collected during the Airborne Southern Hemisphere Ozone Experiment/Measurements for Assessing the Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (ASHOE/MAESA) missions in 1994. Through a companion proposal, another group was to measure the size distribution of aerosols in the 0.008 to 2 micrometer diameter range and to collect for us impactor samples of particles larger than about 0.02 gm. In the first year, we conducted laboratory studies related to particulate deposition patterns on our collection substrates, and have performed the analysis of many ASHOE/MAESA aerosol samples from 1994 using analytical electron microscopy (AEM). We have been building an "aerosol climatology" with these data that documents the types and relative abundances of particles observed at different latitudes and altitudes. The second year (and non-funded extension periods) saw continued analyses of impactor aerosol samples, including more ASHOE/MAESA samples, some northern hemisphere samples from the NASA Stratospheric Photochemistry Aerosols and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE) program for comparison, and a few aerosol samples from the NASA Stratospheric TRacers of Atmospheric Transport (STRAT) program. A high-resolution field emission microscope was used for the analysis and re-analysis of a number of samples to determine if this instrument was superior in performance to our conventional electron microscope. In addition, some basic laboratory studies were conducted to determine the minimum detectable and analyzable particle size for different types of aerosols. In all, 61 aerosol samples were analyzed, with a total of over 30,000 individual particle analyses. In all analyzed samples, sulfate particles comprised the major aerosol number fraction. It must be stressed that particles composed of more than one species, for example sulfate and organic carbon, were classified according to the major fraction. Thus, many of the particles classified as sulfate may have contained significant mass fractions of carbonaceous or other material. These particles for the most part did not show two physical phases, however. Nonsulfate particles were classified according to the physical and chemical characteristics of each particle, and were grouped into the major nonsulfate particle classes, including C-rich, crustal, metallic, and salts. Our UT and LS sample analyses indicate a maximum for crustal and C-rich particle abundance in the Northern Hemisphere upper troposphere, and a salt particle maximum in the Southern Hemisphere upper troposphere. Metallic particles are clearly more prevalent in the troposphere than in the stratosphere, but interhemispheric differences appear small.

Sheridan, Patrick J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

On the Relative Importance of Convection and Temperature on the Behavior of the Ionosphere in North American during January 6-12, 1997

Measurements from a network of digisondes and an incoherent scatter radar In Eastern North American For January 6-12, 1997 have been compared with the Field Line Interhemispheric Plasma (FLIP) model which now includes the effects of electric field convective. With the exception of Bermuda, the model reproduces the daytime electron density very well most of the time. As is typical behavior for winter solar minimum on magnetically undisturbed nights, the measurements at Millstone Hill show high electron temperatures before midnight followed by a rapid decay, which is accompanied by a pronounced density enhancement in the early morning hours. The FLIP model reproduces the nighttime density enhancement well, provided the model is constrained to follow the topside electron temperature and the flux tube is full. Similar density enhancements are seen at Goose Bay, Wallops Island and Bermuda. However, the peak height variation and auroral images indicate the density enhancements at Goose Bay are most likely due to particle precipitation. Contrary to previously published work we find that the nighttime density variation at Millstone Hill is driven by the temperature behavior and not the other way around. Thus, in both the data and model, the overall nighttime density is lowered and the enhancement does not occur if the temperature remains high all night. Our calculations show that convections of plasma from higher magnetic latitudes does not cause the observed density maximum but it may enhance the density maximum if over-full flux tubes are convected over the station. On the other had, convection of flux tubes with high temperatures and depleted densities may prevent the density maximum from occurring. Despite the success in modeling the nighttime density enhancements, there remain two unresolved problems. First, the measured density decays much faster than the modeled density near sunset at Millstone Hill and Goose Bay though not at lower latitude stations. Second, we cannot fully explain the large temperatures before midnight nor the sudden decay near midnight.

Richards, P. G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Budgets of N2O and CCl3F

The 6-year wind archives from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model (GISS/GCMAM) were in- put to the GISS/Harvard/Irvine Chemical Transport Model (G/H/I CTM) to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the budgets and distributions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CCl3F), with the corresponding chemical loss frequencies recycled and boundary conditions kept unchanged from year to year. The effects of ozone feedback and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were not included. However, the role of circulation variation in driving the lifetime variability is investigated. It was found that the global loss rates of these tracers are related to the extratropical planetary wave activity, which drives the tropical upward mass flux. For N2O, a semiannual signal in the loss rate variation is associated with the interhemispheric asymmetry in the upper stratospheric wave activity. For CCl3F, the semiannual signal is weaker, associated with the comparatively uniform wave episodes in the lower stratosphere. The loss rates lag behind the wave activity by about 1-2 months. The interannual variation of the GCM generated winds drives the interannual variation of the annually averaged lifetime. The year-to-year variations of the annually averaged lifetimes can be about 3% for N2O and 4% for CCl3F.

Wong, Sun↗
NASA NTRS1998

Effects of Convection Electric Fields on Modeled Plasmaspheric Densities and ccc Temperatures

This paper examines the effects of convection electric fields on plasmaspheric H+, O+, He+, and N+ densities and electron and ion temperatures. These effects are studied with the aid of the Field Line Interhemispheric Plasma (FLIP) model, which has recently been extended to include the effects of ExB drifts. The FLIP model solves the continuity and momentum equations for the major ion species as well as the energy equations for ions and electrons along entire drifting flux tubes from 100 km altitude in the northern hemisphere to 100 km altitude in the southern hemisphere. Electron heating in the ionosphere and plasmasphere is provided by the solution of two-stream equations for photoelectrons. The dawn-dusk electric field imposed by the solar wind causes changes in plasmaspheric density and temperature as the plasma drifts onto flux tubes having different volumes. In an idealized convection model, outward drifts in the afternoon cause decreases in the plasmasphere density and temperature while inward drifts in the evening cause increases in plasmasphere density and temperature. In this paper we examine the effects of convection electric fields on the rate of refilling of flux tubes and investigate the hypothesis that convection electric fields are responsible for the unusually high evening electron temperatures and the post-midnight density maxima often observed in the winter ionosphere above Millstone Hill.

Comfort, Richard H.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Processes Affecting Tropospheric Ozone Inferred from Ozonesonde and Other Tracer Data from the R/V R H Brown Atlantic Cruise (37N-34S) in January-February 1999

During the Aerosols-99 trans-Atlantic cruise from Norfolk, VA, to Cape Town, South Africa, 22 ozonesondes were launched from the NOAA R/V R H Brown between 17 Jan and 6 Feb 1999, with all sondes but one reaching 30 km. A composite of ozone profiles along the transect shows high free tropospheric ozone (up to 100 ppbv at 9 km) between 5N and 20S, a coherent feature straddling either side of the ITCZ. Latitudinal variations of tropospheric ozone are interpreted using correlative measurements of surface ozone, CO, water vapor, and aerosol optical thickness (column absorbance) measured from the ship. Elevated ozone in the lower troposphere results from photochemical reactions of precursors emitted by biomass burning north of the ITCZ. However, the greatest ozone mixing ratios are in the mid-troposphere south of the ITCZ, which gives evidence of interhemispheric transport. Column-integrated tropospheric ozone, 35 DU from 0-16 km, agrees with that derived from the TOMS satellite by the modified-residual method [Thompson and Hudson, 1999]. NCEP wind fields, ship-launched radiosondes and back trajectories are consistent with a picture of recirculating air parcels centered in the tropical Atlantic region which is identified with the maximum wave-one amplitude in total ozone seen in sondes and by satellite.

Thompson, Anne M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Shipboard and Satellite Views of Elevated Tropospheric Ozone over the Tropical Atlantic in January-February 1999

During the Aerosols99 trans-Atlantic cruise from Norfolk, VA, to Cape Town, South Africa, daily ozonesondes were launched from the NOAA R/V Ronald H Brown between 17 January and 6 February l999. A composite of tropospheric ozone profiles along the latitudinal transect shows 4 zones, which are interpreted using correlative shipboard ozone, CO, water vapor, and overhead aerosol optical thickness measurements. Elevated ozone associated with biomass burning north of the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) is prominent at 3-5 km from 10-0N, but even higher ozone (100 ppbv, 7-10 km) occurred south of the ITCZ, where it was not burning. Column-integrated tropospheric ozone was 44 Dobson Units (DU) in one sounding, 10 DU lower than the maximum in a January-February 1993 Atlantic cruise with ozonesondes [Weller et al., 1996]. TOMS tropospheric ozone shows elevated ozone extending throughout the tropical Atlantic in January 1999. Several explanations are considered. Back trajectories, satellite aerosol observations and shipboard tracers suggest a combination of convection and interhemispheric transport of ozone and/or ozone precursors, probably amplified by a lightning NO source over Africa.

Thompson, Anne M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Longitudinal and Seasonal Variations in Nighttime Plasma Temperatures in the Equatorial Topside Ionosphere During Solar Maximum

Latitude profiles of the ion and electron temperatures and total ion concentration across the equatorial region near 800 km altitude are routinely obtained from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft. We have examined these profiles at 2100 hours local time to discover the influences of field-aligned plasma transport induced by F region neutral winds. Such dependencies are readily seen by contrasting observations at different seasons and different longitudes distinguished by different magnetic declinations. These data show strong evidence for adiabatic heating produced by interhemispheric plasma transport. This heating manifests itself as a local temperature maximum that appears in the winter hemisphere during the solstices and is generally absent during equinox. A longitudinal variation in the appearance of this maximum is consistent with the roles of meridional and zonal winds in modulating the field-aligned plasma velocities. The data also show a local temperature minimum near the dip equator. However, it is not so easy to attribute this minimum to adiabatic cooling since transport of plasma from below and the latitude variation in the flux tube content may also produce such a minimum.

Venkatraman, Sarita↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Modeling Study of the Latitudinal Variations in the Nighttime Plasma Temperatures of the Equatorial Topside Ionosphere During Northern Winter at Solar Maximum

Latitudinal variations in the nighttime plasma temperatures of the equatorial topside ionosphere during northern winter at solar maximum have been examined by using values modelled by SUPIM (Sheffield University Plasmasphere Ionosphere Model) and observations made by the DMSP F10 satellite at 21.00 LT near 800 km altitude. The modelled values confirm that the crests observed near 15 deg latitude in the winter hemisphere are due to adiabatic heating and the troughs observed near the magnetic equator are due to adiabatic cooling as plasma is transported along the magnetic field lines from the summer hemisphere to the winter hemisphere. The modelled values also confirm that the interhemispheric plasma transport needed to produce the required adiabatic heating/cooling can be induced by F-region neutral winds. It is shown that the longitudinal variations in the observed troughs and crests arise mainly from the longitudinal variations in the magnetic meridional wind. At longitudes where the magnetic declination angle is positive the eastward geographic zonal wind combines with the northward (summer hemisphere to winter hemisphere) geographic meridional wind to enhance the northward magnetic meridional wind. This leads to deeper troughs and enhanced crests. At longitudes where the magnetic declination angle is negative the eastward geographic zonal wind opposes the northward geographic meridional wind and the trough depth and crest values are reduced. The characteristic features of the troughs and crests depend, in a complicated manner, on the field-aligned flow of plasma, thermal conduction, and inter-gas heat transfer. At the latitudes of the troughs/crests, the low/high plasma temperatures lead to increased/decreased plasma concentrations.

Bailey, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Investigation of Thermospheric and Ionospheric Changes during Ionospheric Storms with Satellite and Ground-Based Data and Modeling

The purpose of this proposed research is to improve our basic understanding of the causes of ionospheric storm behavior in the midlatitude F region ionosphere. This objective will be achieved by detailed comparisons between ground based measurements of the peak electron density (N(sub m)F(sub 2)), Atmosphere Explorer satellite measurements of ion and neutral composition, and output from the Field Line Interhemispheric Plasma (FLIP) model. The primary result will be a better understanding of changes in the neutral densities and ion chemistry during magnetic storms that will improve our capability to model the weather of the ionosphere which will be needed as a basis for ionospheric prediction. Specifically, this study seeks to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent are negative ionospheric storm phases caused by changes in the atomic to molecular ratio? (2) Are the changes in neutral density ratio due to increased N2, or decreased O, or both? (3) Are there other chemical processes (e.g., excited N2) that increase O+ loss rates during negative storms? (4) Do neutral density altitude distributions differed from hydrostatic equilibrium? (5) Why do near normal nighttime densities often follow daytime depletions of electron density; and (6) Can changes in h(sub m)F2 fully account for positive storm phases? To answer these questions, we plan to combine ground-based and space-based measurements with the aid of our ionospheric model which is ideally suited to this purpose. These proposed studies will lead to a better capability to predict long term ionospheric variability, leading to better predictions of ionospheric weather.

Richards, Philip G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Determination of Ionospheric Conductivities from UVI Intensity Ratios

Germany et al. examined the viability of using LBH emission ratios to infer auroral conductances, using modeled line brightnesses representative of the (then) planned UVI bandpasses. Here we extend that work by using actual UVI bandpass information instead of single modeled lines. Conductances are calculated using combined two stream and Field Line Interhemispheric Plasma (FLIP) model calculations to specify the ionosphere. The dependence of modeled conductances to UVI bandpass intensities is examined as a function of incident average energy, total energy flux, and changes in solar and magnetic activity levels. Potential parameterizations of conductance with UVI intensity ratios will be examined, as will error estimates of the conductance determinations.

Spann, James F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Model Simulations of CO2 Transport Using Assimilated Meteorological Fields

The numerical simulation of CO2 transport (and other tracers such as CO, CH4, and biomass burning tracers) in the atmosphere is required to determine the fate of anthropogenic source gases. Estimation of the CO2 exchange between the ocean surface, the terrestrial biosphere, and the atmosphere is of first-order importance to understanding the global carbon cycle and the processes that are most crucial in determining the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Forward transport simulations have been conducted using two-dimensional, time-dependent grids of average surface fluxes (from TRANSCOM) and three-dimensional wind data from a prototype data assimilation system (FV-DAS) run by the Goddard Data Assimilation Office. The objective is to better understand the contribution of meteorological variability to changes in CO2 and other constituents, By accurately accounting for meteorological variability, through use of assimilated winds, we hope to better characterize the distribution of surface sources and sinks (and chemistry where applicable). With assimilated meteorology such chemistry/transport runs provide the basic framework to analyze existing (and proposed) measurement data on a point-by-point, real-time basis. We compare with measured CO2 concentration gradients on a daily, seasonal, regional, and interhemispheric basis to examine the consistency of sources, sinks, and transport formulation. We will also examine the inter-annual variability of atmospheric CO2 due to atmospheric circulation changes using longer runs with assimilated winds.

Kaea, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Tropical Warm Pool Surface Heat Budgets and Temperature: Contrasts Between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina

Seasonal and interannual variations of the net surface heating F(sub NET) and sea surface temperature tendency (T(sub s)/dt) in the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied. The surface heat fluxes are derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements for the period October 1997-September 2000. It is found that the magnitude of solar heating is lager than that of evaporative cooling, but the spatial variation of the latter is significantly large than the former. As a result, the spatial variations of seasonal and interannual variability of F(sub NET), follow closely that of evaporative cooling. Seasonal variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt are significantly correlated, except for the equatorial western Pacific. The high correlation is primarily attributable to high correlation between seasonal cycles of solar heating and T(sub s)/dt. The change of F(sub NET) between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina is significantly larger in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean than tropical western Pacific. For the former region, the reduced evaporative cooling arising from weakened winds during the El Nino is generally associated with enhanced solar heating due to decreased cloudiness, and thus increases the interannual variability of F(sub NET). For the latter region, the reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds is generally associated with but exceeds the reduced solar heating arising from increased cloudiness, and vise versa. Thus the interannual variability of F(sub NET) is reduced due to this offsetting effect. Interannual variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt have very low correlation. This is most likely related to interannual variability of ocean dynamics, which includes the variations of solar radiation penetrating through oceanic mixed layer, upwelling of cold thermocline water, Indonesian throughflow for transporting heat from the Pacific to Indian Ocean, and interhemispheric transport in the Indian Ocean.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variations and climatology of CI0 in the polar lower stratosphere from UARS Microwave Limb Sounder measurements

The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) measured the global distribution of stratospheric ClO over annual cycles for much of the 1990s, albeit with reduced sampling frequency in the latter half of the decade. Here we present an overview of the interannual and interhemispheric variations in the distribution of ClO derived from UARS MLS measurements, with a particular emphasis on enhancements in the winter polar lower stratosphere.

Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)↗
NASA NTRS2004

Climate Response to the Increase in Tropospheric Ozone since Preindustrial Times: A Comparison between Ozone and Equivalent CO2 Forcings

We examine the characteristics of the climate response to anthropogenic changes in tropospheric ozone. Using a general circulation model, we have carried out a pair of equilibrium climate simulations with realistic present-day and preindustrial ozone distributions. We find that the instantaneous radiative forcing of 0.49 W m(sup -2) due to the increase in tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times results in an increase in global mean surface temperature of 0.28 C. The increase is nearly 0.4 C in the Northern Hemisphere and about 0.2 C in the Southern Hemisphere. The largest increases (greater than 0.8 C) are downwind of Europe and Asia and over the North American interior in summer. In the lower stratosphere, global mean temperatures decrease by about 0.2 C due to the diminished upward flux of radiation at 9.6 micrometers. The largest stratospheric cooling, up to 1.0 C, occurs over high northern latitudes in winter, with possibly important implications for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. To identify the characteristics of climate forcing unique to tropospheric ozone, we have conducted two additional climate equilibrium simulations: one in which preindustrial tropospheric ozone concentrations were increased everywhere by 18 ppb, producing the same global radiative forcing as present-day ozone but without the heterogeneity; and one in which CO2 was decreased by 25 ppm relative to present day, with ozone at present-day values, to again produce the same global radiative forcing but with the spectral signature of CO2 rather than ozone. In the first simulation (uniform increase of ozone), the global mean surface temperature increases by 0.25 C, with an interhemispheric difference of only 0.03 C, as compared with nearly 0.2 C for the heterogeneous ozone increase. In the second simulation (equivalent CO2), the global mean surface temperature increases by 0.36 C, 30% higher than the increase from tropospheric ozone. The stronger surface warming from CO2 is in part because CO2 forcing (obscured by water vapor) is shifted relatively poleward where the positive ice-albedo feedback amplifies the climate response and in part because the magnitude of the CO2 forcing in the mid-troposphere is double that of ozone. However, we find that CO2 is far less effective than tropospheric ozone in driving lower stratospheric cooling at high northern latitudes in winter.

Mickley L. J.↗