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Risk of Performance and Behavioral Health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, and Psychosocial Adaptions within a Team

The Risk of Performance and Behavioral Health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team (the Team Risk) is primarily performance-focused, with a secondary emphasis on behavioral health outcomes resulting from team performance and interpersonal interactions. Monitoring tools, measures, and countermeasures are aimed at enhancing team processes and team composition configurations to optimize team performance and functioning. Long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will include major challenges that could affect team performance, including social isolation, physical confinement, a small and diverse crew, communication delays between crew and ground, limited or no crew rotation or evacuation options, limited or no resupply, and a high-consequence environment. Each of these conditions will affect the crew’s coordination, cooperation, psychological well-being, and performance. Although the International Space Station (ISS) remains important for studies that require spaceflight testing and validation, the current conditions on the ISS do not adequately mimic the exploration environment that is required for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) teams research, and thus access to terrestrial or ground-based analogs of LDEM conditions is paramount. The emphasis on analogs for research is reflected in this updated evidence review of the Team Risk, and includes data from studies conducted at isolated, confined, extreme (ICE) environments (e.g., Antarctic stations), and from several mission simulation analogs such as the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) (HERA Experiment Information Package, 2014), also known as isolated, confined, controlled (ICC) environments. These studies have characterized many team factors regarding LDEMs, and the Team Risk has now matured from risk characterization to focusing more on countermeasure development. Because spaceflight evidence for team-level research is lacking, no reliable data is available to quantify the impact of team-level variables on individual and team-level outcomes during spaceflight missions. Until recently, no systematic attempt had been undertaken to measure the performance effects of team cohesion, team composition, team training, or team-related psychosocial adaptation during spaceflight. The Team Risk is a relatively young research area for NASA, with substantial growth only since the 2000s, and with limited access to spaceflight performance data. As a result, spaceflight evidence is lacking to identify specifically what team composition, level of training, amount of cohesion, or quality of psychosocial adaptation is necessary to reduce the risk of performance errors in space. However, astronaut journals and interviews and reports from spaceflight subject matter experts (SMEs) provide testimonies that team performance during spaceflight is important for mission success and to maintain crew health. Team spaceflight data is now being collected as part of the Spaceflight Standard Measures task (Clement, 2021)—a set of core measurements related to many human spaceflight risks that are collected from astronauts before, during, and after long-duration missions. The team-related standard measures focus on team cohesion, team performance, group living, team climate, and team processes. Collection of standard measures data is ongoing and published data is not yet available. Finally, although spaceflight evidence is lacking, evidence gleaned from ground studies and spaceflight analog studies will help close the gaps outlined in the Team Risk. Ground-based studies provide quantitative evidence for team functioning in ICE environments. Academic research on teams has produced dozens of meta-analyses that can be used to understand the general relationships among team inputs (e.g., team member characteristics and skills, job context), team processes, and emergent states (e.g., coordination, communication, cooperation, cohesion, trust, shared cognition), and team outcomes (e.g., effectiveness, errors, adaptation). Teams are complex, incorporating individual characteristics of team members, but also existing at a level that is greater than the sum of its parts. Therefore, the Team Risk must be integrated with other individual-focused NASA Human Research Program (HRP) risks, including Behavioral Medicine (BMed), Sleep, and Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA), and emerging research indicates more integration may needed between the Team Risk and the physiologically oriented risks. Much of this integration occurs through the Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB). A lack of team functioning may be a stressor in some circumstances, but the team often acts as a countermeasure. For example, support for team leaders and teammates can facilitate individual functioning and encourage psychological and physically healthy behaviors and attitudes. However, more research is needed regarding teams during LDEMs and the remaining gaps in the research are described in the current report.

Lauren Blackwell Landon↗

Appetite and Food Intake During 11 Days of Mild Hypobaric Hypoxia

Introduction Reduced food consumption and loss of body mass and muscle mass have been observed during spaceflight. Hypoxic conditions that astronauts may encounter on exploration missions may further implicate satiety signals and dietary intake. Appetite, food intake, and satiety hormones were investigated under the conditions of mild hypoxia and high energy output during simulated extravehicular activity (EVA) to determine the adequacy of a mission relevant space food system to support energy balance and body composition. Methods Foods realistic to early Artemis missions was packed by meal for each subject for the 11-day test based on estimated energy requirements (EER) and estimated EVA caloric requirements. No hot water or food warmer was provided and only room temperature water was available to rehydrate food and beverages in-mission, mimicking plans for early Artemis missions. Measures included food records (pre-mission, in-mission); fasted body weight (pre-mission, in-mission); Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) (pre-mission, post-mission); subjective ratings and feedback of food acceptability, mealtime and meal preparation sufficiency, appetite, and nausea (in-mission); and circulating ghrelin and leptin concentration in fasted blood samples (pre-mission, in-mission: pre-post EVA). Results All subjects consumed fewer calories in-mission than predicted. On average, subjects consumed 341 calories less on EVA days compared to non-EVA days in-mission (p=0.0511). The total weight loss estimate from daily weight measurements (-1.1 kg, p=0.0028) is consistent with underconsumption and supported by DXA measurements (-1.3 kg total body mass, p=0.0123 and -1.6 kg fat mass, p=0.0016). In general, most foods that were consumed were given acceptable scores, but subject comments indicated that the most acceptable foods were those not intended to be heated. Comments also indicated that subjects found their favorite foods early in the mission and avoided the foods that they did not like throughout the mission. Habitability scores indicated that overall aspects of the food system were considered borderline or unacceptable over the length of this mission. Foods that caused gas were avoided pre-EVA to prevent discomfort during pressure changes. Average fruit and vegetable intake decreased during the mission, dropping from 4.8 servings/d pre-mission to 3.4 servings/d on non-EVA days in-mission (p=0.0872) and 2.3 servings on EVA days (p=0.0020). Fasting ghrelin concentrations tended to be lower pre-EVA and on non-EVA days when exposed to mild hypoxia compared to normoxic conditions pre-mission and post-EVA (p=0.0136). Fasting levels of leptin did not change. Discussion Food intake was reduced in-mission, resulting in a caloric deficit and weight loss for most subjects. Crew food and appetite ratings and comments indicated this was due to a combination of food choices, lack of preference, lack of preparation capability, lack of time for meal preparation, consumption, and cleanup, and physiological challenges with the changing pressure. The regulation of appetite stimulating hormone ghrelin, but not the appetite suppressor leptin, appeared to be sensitive to hypoxic conditions. Conclusions Food preparation capabilities and time for meals are important for promoting adequate food intake. Reduced appetite and food intake during missions may further be aggravated under hypoxic conditions through the suppression of ghrelin. Lack of time for meals on EVA days, and avoidance of potential gas-causing foods (e.g., health promoting fruits and vegetables) prior to EVAs, demonstrate the importance of scheduling ample recovery time between EVA days.

Grace L Douglas↗

Appetite and Food Intake During 11 Days of Mild Hypobaric Hypoxia

Introduction Reduced food consumption and loss of body mass and muscle mass have been observed during spaceflight. Hypoxic conditions that astronauts may encounter on exploration missions may further implicate satiety signals and dietary intake. Appetite, food intake, and satiety hormones were investigated under the conditions of mild hypoxia and high energy output during simulated extravehicular activity (EVA) to determine the adequacy of a mission relevant space food system to support energy balance and body composition. Methods Foods realistic to early Artemis missions was packed by meal for each subject for the 11-day test based on estimated energy requirements (EER) and estimated EVA caloric requirements. No hot water or food warmer was provided and only room temperature water was available to rehydrate food and beverages in-mission, mimicking plans for early Artemis missions. Measures included food records (pre-mission, in-mission); fasted body weight (pre-mission, in-mission); Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) (pre-mission, post-mission); subjective ratings and feedback of food acceptability, mealtime and meal preparation sufficiency, appetite, and nausea (in-mission); and circulating ghrelin and leptin concentration in fasted blood samples (pre-mission, in-mission: pre-post EVA). Results All subjects consumed fewer calories in-mission than predicted. On average, subjects consumed 341 calories less on EVA days compared to non-EVA days in-mission (p=0.0511). The total weight loss estimate from daily weight measurements (-1.1 kg, p=0.0028) is consistent with underconsumption and supported by DXA measurements (-1.3 kg total body mass, p=0.0123 and -1.6 kg fat mass, p=0.0016). In general, most foods that were consumed were given acceptable scores, but subject comments indicated that the most acceptable foods were those not intended to be heated. Comments also indicated that subjects found their favorite foods early in the mission and avoided the foods that they did not like throughout the mission. Habitability scores indicated that overall aspects of the food system were considered borderline or unacceptable over the length of this mission. Foods that caused gas were avoided pre-EVA to prevent discomfort during pressure changes. Average fruit and vegetable intake decreased during the mission, dropping from 4.8 servings/d pre-mission to 3.4 servings/d on non-EVA days in-mission (p=0.0872) and 2.3 servings on EVA days (p=0.0020). Fasting ghrelin concentrations tended to be lower pre-EVA and on non-EVA days when exposed to mild hypoxia compared to normoxic conditions pre-mission and post-EVA (p=0.0136). Fasting levels of leptin did not change. Discussion Food intake was reduced in-mission, resulting in a caloric deficit and weight loss for most subjects. Crew food and appetite ratings and comments indicated this was due to a combination of food choices, lack of preference, lack of preparation capability, lack of time for meal preparation, consumption, and cleanup, and physiological challenges with the changing pressure. The regulation of appetite stimulating hormone ghrelin, but not the appetite suppressor leptin, appeared to be sensitive to hypoxic conditions. Conclusions Food preparation capabilities and time for meals are important for promoting adequate food intake. Reduced appetite and food intake during missions may further be aggravated under hypoxic conditions through the suppression of ghrelin. Lack of time for meals on EVA days, and avoidance of potential gas-causing foods (e.g., health promoting fruits and vegetables) prior to EVAs, demonstrate the importance of scheduling ample recovery time between EVA days.

Lichar Dillon↗

Overall equilibrium in the coupling of peridynamics and classical continuum mechanics

Coupling peridynamics based computational tools with those using classical continuum mechanics can be very beneficial, because it can provide a means to generate a computational method that combines the efficiency of classical continuum mechanics with the capability to simulate crack propagation, typical of peridynamics. This paper presents an overlooked issue in this type of coupled computational methods: the lack of overall equilibrium. This can be the case even if the coupling strategy satisfies the usual numerical tests involving rigid body motions as well as uniform and linear strain distributions. We focus our investigation on the lack of overall equilibrium in an approach to couple peridynamics and classical continuum mechanics recently proposed by the authors. In our examples, the magnitude of the out-of-balance forces is a fraction of a percent of the applied forces, but it cannot be assumed to be a numerical round-off error. We show analytically and numerically that the main reason for the existence of out-of-balance forces is a lack of balance between the local and nonlocal tractions at the coupling interface. This usually results from the presence of high-order derivatives of displacements in the coupling zone.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Finally, findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Aim18p and Aim46p are chalcone isomerase domain–containing mitochondrial hemoproteins in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Chalcone isomerases (CHIs) have well-established roles in the biosynthesis of plant flavonoid metabolites. Saccharomyces cerevisiae possesses two predicted CHI-like proteins, Aim18p (encoded by YHR198C) and Aim46p (YHR199C), but it lacks other enzymes of the flavonoid pathway, suggesting that Aim18p and Aim46p employ the CHI fold for distinct purposes. Here, we demonstrate using proteinase K protection assays, sodium carbonate extractions, and crystallography that Aim18p and Aim46p reside on the mitochondrial inner membrane and adopt CHI folds, but they lack select active site residues and possess an extra fungal-specific loop. Consistent with these differences, Aim18p and Aim46p lack CHI activity and also the fatty acid–binding capabilities of other CHI-like proteins, but instead bind heme. We further show that diverse fungal homologs also bind heme and that Aim18p and Aim46p possess structural homology to a bacterial hemoprotein. Collectively, our work reveals a distinct function and cellular localization for two CHI-like proteins, introduces a new variation of a hemoprotein fold, and suggests that ancestral CHI-like proteins were hemoproteins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Ribosomal Protein bS1 in Orthogonal mRNA Start Codon Selection

In many bacteria, the location of the mRNA start codon is determined by a short ribosome binding site sequence that base pairs with the 3'-end of 16S rRNA (rRNA) in the 30S subunit. Many groups have changed these short sequences, termed the Shine-Dalgarno (SD) sequence in the mRNA and the anti-Shine-Dalgarno (ASD) sequence in 16S rRNA, to create "orthogonal" ribosomes to enable the synthesis of orthogonal polymers in the presence of the endogenous translation machinery. However, orthogonal ribosomes are prone to SD-independent translation. Ribosomal protein bS1, which binds to the 30S ribosomal subunit, is thought to promote translation initiation by shuttling the mRNA to the ribosome. Thus, a better understanding of how the SD and bS1 contribute to start codon selection could help efforts to improve the orthogonality of ribosomes. Here, we engineered the Escherichia coli ribosome to prevent binding of bS1 to the 30S subunit and separate the activity of bS1 binding to the ribosome from the role of the mRNA SD sequence in start codon selection. We find that ribosomes lacking bS1 are slightly less active than wild-type ribosomes in vitro. Furthermore, orthogonal 30S subunits lacking bS1 do not have an improved orthogonality. Our findings suggest that mRNA features outside the SD sequence and independent of binding of bS1 to the ribosome likely contribute to start codon selection and the lack of orthogonality of present orthogonal ribosomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Observed and Bin Model Simulated Evolution of Drop Size Distributions in High-Based Cumulus Congestus Over the United Arab Emirates

This study examines microphysical processes in developing high-based cumulus congestus over the United Arab Emirates using aircraft observations and a large-eddy-simulation model with bin microphysics. A notable feature of this case is the lack of mm-sized drops despite having a liquid cloud layer >3.5 km deep, contrasting with copious large drops observed in maritime tropical cumulus congestus having a similar vertical extent. Modeled drop size distributions are similar to observations at various temperatures between 9.5 and –12°C, including the lack of mm-sized drops. Cloud dilution leads to low-to-moderate liquid water contents (~0.5–1.5 g m –3 ) in most of the cloud core, several times smaller than adiabatic values. Dilution is enhanced in the inflowing branch of the toroidal circulations associated with individual cloud thermals, which are favored regions for secondary droplet activation (activation above cloud base). Secondary activation in general contributes substantially to the droplet population. Turning it off leads to a sharp decrease in droplet concentration and increase in mean size aloft, but does little to increase rain drop production. Warm rain generation (or lack thereof) in this case is therefore determined more by the sub-cloud aerosol and the cloud base droplet size distribution (DSD) than DSD evolution aloft from secondary droplet activation. Decreasing the aerosol concentration by a factor of 10 greatly increases production of large drops via collision-coalescence. Thus, despite its high base (low temperatures) and substantial dilution, the simulated cloud is thermodynamically and dynamically capable of rapidly producing copious mm-sized drops from collision-coalescence under pristine aerosol conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The anomaly of the CMB power with the latest Planck data

Abstract The lack of power anomaly is an unexpected feature observed at large angular scales in the maps of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) produced by the COBE, WMAP andPlancksatellites. This signature, which consists in a missing of power with respect to that predicted by the ΛCDM model, might hint at a new cosmological phase before the standard inflationary era.The main point of this paper is taking into account the latestPlanckpolarisation data to investigate how the CMB polarisation improves the understanding of this feature. With this aim, we apply to the latestPlanckdata, both PR3 (2018) and PR4 (2020) releases, a new class of estimators capable of evaluating this anomaly by considering temperature and polarisation data both separately and in a jointly way. This is the first time that the PR4 dataset has been used to study this anomaly. To critically evaluate this feature, taking into account the residuals of known systematic effects present in thePlanckdatasets, we analyse the cleaned CMB maps using different combinations of sky masks, harmonic range and binning on the CMB multipoles.Our analysis shows that the estimator based only on temperature data confirms the presence of a lack of power with a lower-tail-probability (LTP), depending on the component separation method, ≤ 0.33% and ≤ 1.76% for PR3 and PR4, respectively. To our knowledge, the LTP≤ 0.33% for the PR3 dataset is the lowest one present in the literature obtained fromPlanck2018 data, considering thePlanckconfidence mask. We find significant differences between these two datasets when polarisation is taken into account most likely due to a different level of systematics. Especially, the analysis with PR3 data, unlike that with PR4, seems to point towards a lack of power at large scales also for polarisation.Moreover, we also show that for the PR3 dataset the inclusion of the subdominant polarisation information provides estimates that are less likely accepted in a ΛCDM cosmological model than the only-temperature analysis over the entire harmonic-range considered. In particular, at ℓ max = 26, we found that no simulation has a value as low as the data for all the pipelines.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Simulations of future particle accelerators: issues and mitigations

The ever increasing demands placed upon machine performance have resulted in the need for more comprehensive particle accelerator modeling. Computer simulations are key to the success of particle accelerators. Many aspects of particle accelerators rely on computer modeling at some point, sometimes requiring complex simulation tools and massively parallel supercomputing. Examples include the modeling of beams at extreme intensities and densities (toward the quantum degeneracy limit), and with ultra-fine control (down to the level of individual particles). In the future, adaptively tuned models might also be relied upon to provide beam measurements beyond the resolution of existing diagnostics. Much time and effort has been put into creating accelerator software tools, some of which are highly successful. However, there are also shortcomings such as the general inability of existing software to be easily modified to meet changing simulation needs. In this paper possible mitigating strategies are discussed for issues faced by the accelerator community as it endeavors to produce better and more comprehensive modeling tools. This includes lack of coordination between code developers, lack of standards to make codes portable and/or reusable, lack of documentation, among others.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

A Simple Standard for Sharing Ontological Mappings (SSSOM)

Abstract Despite progress in the development of standards for describing and exchanging scientific information, the lack of easy-to-use standards for mapping between different representations of the same or similar objects in different databases poses a major impediment to data integration and interoperability. Mappings often lack the metadata needed to be correctly interpreted and applied. For example, are two terms equivalent or merely related? Are they narrow or broad matches? Or are they associated in some other way? Such relationships between the mapped terms are often not documented, which leads to incorrect assumptions and makes them hard to use in scenarios that require a high degree of precision (such as diagnostics or risk prediction). Furthermore, the lack of descriptions of how mappings were done makes it hard to combine and reconcile mappings, particularly curated and automated ones. We have developed the Simple Standard for Sharing Ontological Mappings (SSSOM) which addresses these problems by: (i) Introducing a machine-readable and extensible vocabulary to describe metadata that makes imprecision, inaccuracy and incompleteness in mappings explicit. (ii) Defining an easy-to-use simple table-based format that can be integrated into existing data science pipelines without the need to parse or query ontologies, and that integrates seamlessly with Linked Data principles. (iii) Implementing open and community-driven collaborative workflows that are designed to evolve the standard continuously to address changing requirements and mapping practices. (iv) Providing reference tools and software libraries for working with the standard. In this paper, we present the SSSOM standard, describe several use cases in detail and survey some of the existing work on standardizing the exchange of mappings, with the goal of making mappings Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR). The SSSOM specification can be found at http://w3id.org/sssom/spec. Database URL: http://w3id.org/sssom/spec

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Explaining Health Risk Behaviors in the U.S. with Social Deprivation at Local and Regional Levels

Health risk behaviors are precursors to many chronic health outcomes, and hence, they pose a challenge to public health. Social deprivation undoubtedly creates circumstances that limit access to healthy habits. Moreover, broad regional effects (weather patterns, political ideology, social norms), and local characteristics (cultural notions and barriers, urban places) also influence lifestyle choices and must be accounted for to truly understand the impact of social deprivation on risky behaviors. This research fills the knowledge gap in epidemiological modeling of health risk behaviors by leveraging machine learning to find associations between social deprivation and health risk behaviors, when adjusted by regional and local effects. Four health risk behaviors, namely, binge drinking, smoking, lack of sleep, and lack of physical activity from the CDC PLACES project are considered in a single framework to understand and compare the interplay between local/regional characteristics and seven measures of social deprivation. Our results indicate that local and/or regional factors rise to the top for three out of four risk behaviors (binge drinking, smoking and lack of sleep) out-competing social deprivation measures. Un-entangling the geographical effects reveals that poverty, educational attainment and non-employment are the three deprivation measures most significantly associated with all four health risk factors. The research thus indicates that public health policies to promote healthy lifestyle behaviors must seek to remedy social deprivation, but using socially and culturally sensitive interventions.

Gokhale, Swapna↗

Pickaxe: a Python library for the prediction of novel metabolic reactions

Abstract Background Biochemical reaction prediction tools leverage enzymatic promiscuity rules to generate reaction networks containing novel compounds and reactions. The resulting reaction networks can be used for multiple applications such as designing novel biosynthetic pathways and annotating untargeted metabolomics data. It is vital for these tools to provide a robust, user-friendly method to generate networks for a given application. However, existing tools lack the flexibility to easily generate networks that are tailor-fit for a user’s application due to lack of exhaustive reaction rules, restriction to pre-computed networks, and difficulty in using the software due to lack of documentation. Results Here we present Pickaxe, an open-source, flexible software that provides a user-friendly method to generate novel reaction networks. This software iteratively applies reaction rules to a set of metabolites to generate novel reactions. Users can select rules from the prepackaged JN1224min ruleset, derived from MetaCyc, or define their own custom rules. Additionally, filters are provided which allow for the pruning of a network on-the-fly based on compound and reaction properties. The filters include chemical similarity to target molecules, metabolomics, thermodynamics, and reaction feasibility filters. Example applications are given to highlight the capabilities of Pickaxe: the expansion of common biological databases with novel reactions, the generation of industrially useful chemicals from a yeast metabolome database, and the annotation of untargeted metabolomics peaks from an E. coli dataset. Conclusion Pickaxe predicts novel metabolic reactions and compounds, which can be used for a variety of applications. This software is open-source and available as part of the MINE Database python package ( https://pypi.org/project/minedatabase/ ) or on GitHub ( https://github.com/tyo-nu/MINE-Database ). Documentation and examples can be found on Read the Docs ( https://mine-database.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ ). Through its documentation, pre-packaged features, and customizable nature, Pickaxe allows users to generate novel reaction networks tailored to their application.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hydropower Geotechnical Foundations: Current Practice and Innovation Opportunities for Low-Head Applications

Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to challenges frequently encountered with traditional approaches. With this understanding, it is critically important to understand and document the current state of practice for hydropower geotechnical foundations, identify key challenges, and define opportunities for innovative solutions. To this end, this report documents the current state of practice across the three main phases of geotechnical foundation development: (1) geotechnical site assessment, (2) design, and (3) construction for hydropower systems. It also describes the major challenges with conventional approaches and identifies opportunities for innovation to reduce hydropower foundations costs, timelines, and risks. Key takeaways from this report include the following: Approximately 80% of available low-head sites are expected to have foundations on soil beds rather than rock beds, suggesting that rockfill and earthfill dams may be the most cost-effective conventional dam type for new projects.; Geotechnical and geologic investigation activities are time-consuming and expensive but are essential to define the parameters and criteria needed for foundation design.; Certain riverbed soil and bedrock types present significant technical challenges or require expensive foundation construction, which can prove financially prohibitive for low-head project development.; Modular hydropower design and prefabricated modular foundations represent a promising but unproven paradigm for new hydropower development. Design and construction approaches using optimized and highly repeatable, reliable components would benefit project cost, time, and risk but require additional research and development.; Temporary construction features for foundations, including cofferdams, water diversion, and water control systems, can prove costly and have inherent construction risk.; For economically viable development, hydropower geotechnical foundations should be limited to 4 to 15% of the project’s total initial capital costs. Many proposed projects have experienced cost overruns attributable to foundation difficulties or surprises during construction. These overruns may have been due to inadequate investigations, lack of adequate engineering effort to tailor the structures to site geology and topography, and/or contractual terms, among other considerations.; Challenges for hydropower foundations and opportunities for innovative technology solutions are identified in the following areas (consistent with the three main phases of foundation development): Geotechnical site assessment, Foundation design and materials, Construction methods and technology. Ultimately, this report aims to provide information about geotechnical foundations for low-head hydropower and to motivate transformative technologies to support hydropower growth.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multi-scale Multi-physics Scientific Machine Learning for Water Cycle Extreme Events Identification, Labelling, Representation, and Characterization

Impacts of climate are usually felt through extreme events such as droughts, floods, thunderstorms, windstorms, wildfires, and so on, that are intimately tied to the water cycle. Predicting the frequency and severity of extreme events under climate change remains a significant challenge; meanwhile, the mechanisms and impacts of these extremes are far from well understood. There are several major science challenges: (1) Lack of labelled extreme events data and missing standards in defining extremes; (2) Computational demand of high-resolution ensemble climate modeling; (3) Modeling the multiscale multi-physics hierarchical structure of compound extremes; (4) Lack of understanding of mechanisms of extreme events; (5) Large uncertainty in extreme events impacts on infrastructure; (6) Subjective assessment of weather-related risk from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales and lack of metrics for risk assessment and mitigation control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Idaho Cyber Heroes: Helping Individuals Navigate Career Pathways in Cybersecurity

In 2019, there was a shortage of 3.5 million qualified cybersecurity professionals. Cyberattacks are ever on the rise, making it increasingly important these positions be filled quickly. The purpose of this research, as part of the Idaho Cyber Research Project, was to use information collected from open-source materials to depict the career path issues in cybersecurity for individuals. Interviews with professionals from various industry sectors in Idaho also influenced the course of our research. Early research revealed that one of the main problems is an unclear career path for individuals wanting to enter the cybersecurity workforce. Unclear pathways are defined by of a lack of awareness about a career field, uncertainty surrounding the knowledge and skills taught in college due to a lack of standardization between institutions, high qualification standards in hiring, and a lack of diverse representation in the cybersecurity workforce. Additionally, a platform called CyberKnights was assessed as it applies to the individual and their pathway. However, CyberKnights is not the only solution to this problem, and further research is needed to identify additional solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Increasing Access to Grid-Tied Distributed Photovoltaics for Low-Income Populations: Considerations for Developing Countries

Governments around the world are under immense pressure to promote inclusive economic growth, reduce budget deficits, and promote sustainable development goals. Such goals may potentially be addressed through public policy approaches to encourage the use of distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems in developing countries, particularly among low-income electricity customers. At the same time, low-income customers face numerous barriers to DPV deployment including a lack of access to capital and financing, a lack of awareness about the technology, lack of homeownership, and distorted price signals via lower retail tariffs. As a result of these factors, among others, they are often the least likely customers in developed and developing countries alike to deploy solar. However, under the right set of conditions, low-income grid tied DPV programs can offer beneficial outcomes for governments, customers, utilities, and the environment. This brief informs decision makers in developing countries as they explore ways to promote equitable access to solar energy in their communities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗