Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “lifetime estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

Infrared Emission Spectroscopy as a Reliability Tool

In this paper we report on a technique based on infrared emission spectroscopy which has been found to be useful for non-contact measurement of the temperature of a hot spot in the gate channel of a GaAs metal/semiconductor field effect transistor (MESFET). The technique was demonstrated on a powered and un-powered GaAs MESFET attaining a spatial resolution of 0.5 microns. A non-destructive submicron-size spot laser beam provided by an HeNe laser excites an extremely small local area of the gate channel of a GaAs MESFET under various operating conditions. Given the state of the experimental test system, we estimate a spatial resolution of about 0.1 microns and a spectral resolution of about 0. I Angstroms. This provides 15 - 100 times finer spatial resolution than can be obtained using the best passive IR systems available. The temperature resolution (less than 0.02 K/micron) of this technique is depend upon the spectrometer used, and that it can be improved further. The information obtained from this technique can be used to estimate device lifetimes for critical applications and for measurement of channel temperature of devices under actual operating conditions. Another potential use of the novel technique can be as a cost-effective prescreening tool for determining the "hot spot" channel temperature of devices under normal operating conditions which can further improve device design, yield enhancement, and reliable operation

Kim, Q.↗

Landing Site Engineering Constraints

Based upon the lander design, constraints are placed upon the landing site selection process in order to mitigate landing risk and optimize mission performance. Constraints are placed on the landing site latitude, elevation, measured rock abundance and terrain slopes within the landing footprint. Estimated mission lifetime and power availability as a function of landing site latitude will be presented. The dimensions of the landing footprint will be given. Plans for obtaining high resolution MOC images of candidate landing sites will be discussed.

Spencer, D.↗

Evaluation of SPE and GCR Radiation Effects in Inflatable, Space Suit and Composite Habitat Materials Project

The radiation resistance of polymeric and composite materials to space radiation is currently based on irradiating materials with Co-60 gamma-radiation to the equivalent total ionizing dose (TID) expected during mission. This is an approximation since gamma-radiation is not truly representative of the particle species; namely, Solar Particle Event (SPE) protons and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) nucleons, encountered in space. In general, the SPE and GCR particle energies are much higher than Co-60 gamma-ray photons, and since the particles have mass, there is a displacement effect due to nuclear collisions between the particle species and the target material. This effort specifically bridges the gap between estimated service lifetimes based on decades old Co-60 gamma-radiation data, and newer assessments of what the service lifetimes actually are based on irradiation with particle species that are more representative of the space radiation environment.

Waller, Jess M.↗

A Privacy First Path Analysis using Clickstream Data

In the modern digital economy, data-driven decision making is crucial for effectively meeting the ever-evolving demands of consumer engagement and satisfaction. Clickstream data has become invaluable for understanding customer behavior, yet concerns over privacy and security persist, especially with some internet service providers profiting from its sale. This article introduces an innovative methodology that blends experiential learning with advanced cryptographic techniques, including differential privacy and graph analytics. The core objective of this methodology is to estimate Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) by analyzing clickstream data, achieving an average prediction accuracy of 92.4% in user engagement levels while ensuring user anonymity through Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) analysis. Our study introduces the concept of a “data depositor” and a privacy manager, employing the composition theorem to merge non-adaptive queries effectively. Privacy budgets (? = 1.0, d = 10-5), sensitivity-specific techniques, and data partitioning were applied. Randomization and noise addition protect data integrity, with special handling for categorical values. This approach, differing from prior studies, offers a 12.6% improvement in privacy-preserving targeting accuracy while maintaining strict confidentiality, presenting a novel path forward in data-driven decision-making.

Frequency and Monetary (RFM) analysis↗

Atmospheric Sulfur Hexafluoride: Sources, Sinks and Greenhouse Warming

Model calculations using estimated reaction rates of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) with OH and 0('D) indicate that the atmospheric lifetime due to these processes may be very long (25,000 years). An upper limit for the UV cross section would suggest a photolysis lifetime much longer than 1000 years. The possibility of other removal mechanisms are discussed. The estimated lifetimes are consistent with other estimated values based on recent laboratory measurements. There appears to be no known natural source of SF6. An estimate of the current production rate of SF6 is about 5 kt/yr. Based on historical emission rates, we calculated a present-day atmospheric concentrations for SF6 of about 2.5 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) and compared the results with available atmospheric measurements. It is difficult to estimate the atmospheric lifetime of SF6 based on mass balance of the emission rate and observed abundance. There are large uncertainties concerning what portion of the SF6 is released to the atmosphere. Even if the emission rate were precisely known, it would be difficult to distinguish among lifetimes longer than 100 years since the current abundance of SF6 is due to emission in the past three decades. More information on the measured trends over the past decade and observed vertical and latitudinal distributions of SF6 in the lower stratosphere will help to narrow the uncertainty in the lifetime. Based on laboratory-measured IR absorption cross section for SF6, we showed that SF6 is about 3 times more effective as a greenhouse gas compared to CFC 11 on a per molecule basis. However, its effect on atmospheric warming will be minimal because of its very small concentration. We estimated the future concentration of SF6 at 2010 to be 8 and 10 pptv based on two projected emission scenarios. The corresponding equilibrium warming of 0.0035 C and 0.0043 C is to be compared with the estimated warming due to CO2 increase of about 0.8 C in the same period.

Sze, Nien Dak↗

Analysis of positron lifetime spectra in polymers

A new procedure for analyzing multicomponent positron lifetime spectra in polymers was developed. It requires initial estimates of the lifetimes and the intensities of various components, which are readily obtainable by a standard spectrum stripping process. These initial estimates, after convolution with the timing system resolution function, are then used as the inputs for a nonlinear least squares analysis to compute the estimates that conform to a global error minimization criterion. The convolution integral uses the full experimental resolution function, in contrast to the previous studies where analytical approximations of it were utilized. These concepts were incorporated into a generalized Computer Program for Analyzing Positron Lifetime Spectra (PAPLS) in polymers. Its validity was tested using several artificially generated data sets. These data sets were also analyzed using the widely used POSITRONFIT program. In almost all cases, the PAPLS program gives closer fit to the input values. The new procedure was applied to the analysis of several lifetime spectra measured in metal ion containing Epon-828 samples. The results are described.

Singh, Jag J.↗

Material erosion measurements and expected operational lifetime of a deployable photon sieve payload

Spacecraft operating in low-Earth orbit are subjected to a number of hazardous environmental constituents that can lead to decreased system performance and reduced operational lifetimes. Due to their thermal, optical, and mechanical properties, polymers are used extensively in space systems; however they are particularly susceptible to material erosion and degradation as a result of exposure to the LEO environment. The focus of this research is to examine the material erosion and mass loss experienced by a custom Kaptonlike polyimide due to exposure in a simulated low-earth orbit environment. The deployable membrane telescope design discussed in this research is named Peregrine and is the scientific payload for FalconSat-7, a 3U cubesat designed and developed at the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) for the purpose of demonstrating the capability of deployable membrane telescope technology on a nanosatellite platform. In addition to the polymer samples, chrome, silver and gold specimens will be examined to measure the oxidation rate and act as a control specimen, respectively. A magnetically filtered atomic oxygen plasma source has previously been developed and characterized for the purpose of simulating the low-Earth orbit environment. The plasma source can be operated at a variety of discharge currents and gas flow rates, of which the plasma parameters downstream of the source are dependent. The characteristics of the generated plasma were examined as a function of these operating parameters to optimize the production of O + ions with energy relevant to LEO applications. The erosion yield of the Kapton-like polyimide was experimentally determined to be 2.84 x 10 -24 cm 3 per atom which is in close agreement when compared to the on-orbit measurement for reaction efficiency of Kapton HN. We report the experimentally determined reaction rate for the Kapton-like polyimide was used to estimate the operational lifetime of the photon sieve during the solar conditions expected beginning in May 2019. The effective lifetime is estimated between 126 and 153 days.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Collision lifetimes and impact statistics of near-Earth asteroids

We have examined the lifetimes of Near-Earth asteroids (NEA's) by directly computing the collision probabilities with other asteroids and with the terrestrial planets. We compare these to the dynamical lifetimes, and to collisional lifetimes assumed by other workers. We discuss the implications of the differences. The lifetimes of NEA's are important because, along with the statistics of craters on the Earth and Moon, they help us to compute the number of NEA's and the rate at which new NEA's are brought to the vicinity of the Earth. Assuming that the NEA population is in steady-state, the lifetimes determine the flux of new bodies needed to replenish the population. Earlier estimates of the lifetimes ignored (or incompletely accounted for) the differences in the velocities of asteroids as they move in their orbits, so our results differ from (for example) Greenberg and Chapman (1983, Icarus 55, 455) and Wetherill (1988, Icarus 76, 1) by factors of 2 to 10. We have computed the collision rates and relative velocities of NEA's with each other, the main-belt asteroids, and the terrestrial planets, using the corrected method described by Bottke et. al. (1992, GRL, in press). We find that NEA's typically have shorter collisional lifetimes than do main-belt asteroids of the same size, due to their high eccentricities, which typically give them aphelia in the main belt. Consequently, they spend a great deal of time in the main belt, and are moving much slower than the bodies around them, making them 'sitting ducks' for impacts with other asteroids. They cross the paths of many objects, and their typical collision velocities are much higher (10-15 km/s) than the collision velocities (5 km/s) among objects within the main belt. These factors combine to give them substantially shorter lifetimes than had been previously estimated.

Bottke, W. F., Jr.↗

Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for high-LET radiation quality and dose-rate may be preferable to conventional risk assessment approaches. Nuclear reactions and track structure effects in tissue may not be properly estimated by existing data using in vitro models for estimating RBEs. The method used here is being extended to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft shielding effectiveness in various space radiation environments.

NASA Center LaRC↗

A new method for measuring refractory corrosion of ceramics in glass

Abstract Nuclear waste glass vitrification furnaces are lined with refractory ceramic blocks to contain the molten glass. The refractory liner is susceptible to corrosion and has a finite service lifetime. For this reason, predicting the refractory corrosion in contact with molten glass is integral to estimating melter service lifetime. Standardized laboratory tests varying time and temperature are commonly performed to estimate refractory material loss as a function of glass composition. These data are time and resource‐intensive to collect and are susceptible to considerable measurement error. In order to accelerate glass formulation and design for nuclear waste vitrification, methods are needed to increase laboratory‐scale throughput while maintaining data quality. In this work, a method to remove the residual glass from a corroded coupon using hydrofluoric acid is presented that accelerates the throughput of sample analysis while simultaneously facilitating more accurate measurements.

Amoroso, Jake W. [Savannah River National Laborato↗

Comparison of predicted and actual orbital lifetimes for the SEDS-2 mission

This paper documents a series of estimates of the orbital lifetime of the SEDS-2 flight configuration made prior to the mission. These estimates were made with program LTIME, which has been in use at MSFC for a number of years. Because of the unusual configuration of upper-stage/tether/endmass flown on this mission, and the type of assumptions and inputs used in LTIME, the effective area used in the drag calculation had to be estimated in an unusual way. The final pre-flight predicted lifetime was 28.35 days. In the actual flight, the tether was cut approximately 5 days into the mission. The instrumented endmass plus about 12 km of tether rapidly reentered the atmosphere, and the Delta II Second Stage plus the remaining 8 km of tether reentered on mission day 60. Tracking data was used to reconstruct reentry sequences for the two parts of the configuration after the cut. The predicted lifetimes for the endmass plus tether-fragment were in the range of 0.2 to 2.8 days, depending on the perigee altitudes assumed. The predicted lifetime of the upper-stage plus tether was 56.4 days, which corresponds to reentry on mission day 61, in good agreement with the actual reentry on day 60.

Evans, Steven W.↗

A digital twin solution for floating offshore wind turbines validated using a full-scale prototype

Abstract. In this work, we implement, verify, and validate a physics-based digital twin solution applied to a floating offshore wind turbine. The digital twin is validated using measurement data from the full-scale TetraSpar prototype. We focus on the estimation of the aerodynamic loads, wind speed, and section loads along the tower, with the aim of estimating the fatigue lifetime of the tower. Our digital twin solution integrates (1) a Kalman filter to estimate the structural states based on a linear model of the structure and measurements from the turbine, (2) an aerodynamic estimator, and (3) a physics-based virtual sensing procedure to obtain the loads along the tower. The digital twin relies on a set of measurements that are expected to be available on any existing wind turbine (power, pitch, rotor speed, and tower acceleration) and motion sensors that are likely to be standard measurements for a floating platform (inclinometers and GPS sensors). We explore two different pathways to obtain physics-based models: a suite of dedicated Python tools implemented as part of this work and the OpenFAST linearization feature. In our final version of the digital twin, we use components from both approaches. We perform different numerical experiments to verify the individual models of the digital twin. In this simulation realm, we obtain estimated damage equivalent loads of the tower fore–aft bending moment with an accuracy of approximately 5 % to 10 %. When comparing the digital twin estimations with the measurements from the TetraSpar prototype, the errors increased to 10 %–15 % on average. Overall, the accuracy of the results is promising and demonstrates the possibility of using digital twin solutions to estimate fatigue loads on floating offshore wind turbines. A natural continuation of this work would be to implement the monitoring and diagnostics aspect of the digital twin to inform operation and maintenance decisions. The digital twin solution is provided with examples as part of an open-source repository.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Long-lived period-doubled edge modes of interacting and disorder-free Floquet spin chains

Floquet spin chains have been a venue for understanding topological states of matter that are qualitatively different from their static counterparts by, for example, hosting π edge modes that show stable period-doubled dynamics. However the stability of these edge modes to interactions has traditionally required the system to be many-body localized in order to suppress heating. In contrast, here we show that even in the absence of disorder, and in the presence of bulk heating, π edge modes are long lived. Their lifetime is extracted from exact diagonalization and is found to be non-perturbative in the interaction strength. A tunneling estimate for the lifetime is obtained by mapping the stroboscopic time-evolution to dynamics of a single particle in Krylov subspace. In this subspace, the π edge mode manifests as the quasi-stable edge mode of an inhomogeneous Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model whose dimerization vanishes in the bulk of the Krylov chain.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

RAIS Slope Factors for Radionuclides

For a given radionuclide, Slope Factors (SFs) represent the ELCR equivalent per unit intake (i.e., ingestion or inhalation) or external exposure of that radionuclide. These SFs are used to convert a radionuclide concentration in soil, air, water, or foodstuffs to a radiation ELCR. The primary use of SFs, also called risk coefficients, is to compute the ELCR resulting from site-related exposures. This is accomplished by multiplying the route-specific SF by the CDI of each radionuclide of potential concern for each route of exposure. Ingestion and inhalation slope factors are central estimates in a linear model of the age-averaged, lifetime attributable radiation cancer incidence (fatal and nonfatal cancer) risk per unit of activity inhaled or ingested, expressed as risk/picocurie (pCi). External exposure SFs are central estimates of lifetime attributable radiation cancer incidence risk for each year of exposure to external radiation from photon-emitting radionuclides distributed uniformly in a thick layer of soil, expressed as risk/year per pCi/gram soil. External exposure SF units can also be risk/year per pCi/square centimeters (cm2) of soil. When combined with site-specific media concentration data and appropriate exposure assumptions, SFs can be used to estimate lifetime cancer risks to members of the general population due to radionuclide exposures. The SFs presented on are updated values from Federal Guidance Report (FGR) 13 supplement using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 107 decay data. The derivation and values are found in “Calculations of Slope Factors and Dose Coefficients” (ORNL, 2014).

Noto, Katie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

Residence lifetimes of 1.79- to 2.15-MeV protons in the equatorial region of the Jovian magnetosphere

The magnitude of the strong flow of 1.79-2.15 MeV protons away from the Jovian magnetic equator is used to estimate the residence lifetimes of these protons in the equatorial source region. The lifetime is approximately 1.2 x 10 to the 5th/(R - 5.8)-squared sec, where R is distance in Jovian radii from Jupiter's center to the equatorial region of interest. At Europa and Ganymede (but not at Io) this lifetime is 1-2 orders of magnitude shorter than sweepup lifetimes by the moons. The fluxes of these protons, integrated over the observed range from 6 to 40 Jovian radii, amount to 3 x 10 to the 23rd particles per second, per degree of longitude and carry away about 9 x 10 to the 17th ergs per second per degree.

Northrop, T. G.↗

Model Sensitivity Studies of the Decrease in Atmospheric Carbon Tetrachloride

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is an ozone-depleting substance, which is controlled by the Montreal Protocol and for which the atmospheric abundance is decreasing. However, the current observed rate of this decrease is known to be slower than expected based on reported CCl4 emissions and its estimated overall atmospheric lifetime. Here we use a three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model to investigate the impact on its predicted decay of uncertainties in the rates at which CCl4 is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis, by ocean uptake and by degradation in soils. The largest sink is atmospheric photolysis (74% of total), but a reported 10% uncertainty in its combined photolysis cross section and quantum yield has only a modest impact on the modelled rate of CCl4 decay. This is partly due to the limiting effect of the rate of transport of CCl4 from the main tropospheric reservoir to the stratosphere, where photolytic loss occurs. The model suggests large interannual variability in the magnitude of this stratospheric photolysis sink caused by variations in transport. The impact of uncertainty in the minor soil sink (9%of total) is also relatively small. In contrast, the model shows that uncertainty in ocean loss (17%of total) has the largest impact on modelled CCl4 decay due to its sizeable contribution to CCl4 loss and large lifetime uncertainty range (147 to 241 years). With an assumed CCl4 emission rate of 39 Gg year(exp -1), the reference simulation with the best estimate of loss processes still underestimates the observed CCl4 (overestimates the decay) over the past 2 decades but to a smaller extent than previous studies. Changes to the rate of CCl4 loss processes, in line with known uncertainties, could bring the model into agreement with in situ surface and remote-sensing measurements, as could an increase in emissions to around 47 Gg year(exp -1). Further progress in constraining the CCl4 budget is partly limited by systematic biases between observational datasets. For example, surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) network are larger than from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network but have shown a steeper decreasing trend over the past 2 decades. These differences imply a difference in emissions which is significant relative to uncertainties in the magnitudes of the CCl4 sinks.

Carbon Trechloride↗