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DOE OSTI2015

Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countries with more limited commitments. Finally, in the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Nonlinear Climate Responses to Increasing CO2 and Anthropogenic Aerosols Simulated by CESM1

Abstract Atmospheric CO2 and anthropogenic aerosols (AA) have increased simultaneously. Because of their opposite radiative effects, these increases may offset each other, which may lead to some nonlinear effects. Here the seasonal and regional characteristics of this nonlinear effect from the CO2 and AA forcings are investigated using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model. Results show that nonlinear effects are small in the global mean of the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes, surface air temperature, and precipitation. However, significant nonlinear effects exist over the Arctic and other extratropical regions during certain seasons. When both forcings are included, Arctic sea ice in September–November decreases less than the linear combination of the responses to the individual forcings due to a higher sea ice sensitivity to the CO2-induced warming than the sensitivity to the AA-induced cooling. This leads to less Arctic warming in the combined-forcing experiment due to reduced energy release from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. Some nonlinear effects on precipitation in June–August are found over East Asia, with the northward-shifted East Asian summer rain belt to oppose the CO2 effect. In December–February, the aerosol loading over Europe in the combined-forcing experiment is higher than that due to the AA forcing, resulting from CO2-induced circulation changes. The changed aerosol loading results in regional thermal responses due to aerosol direct and indirect effects, weakening the combined changes of temperature and circulation. This study highlights the need to consider nonlinear effects from historical CO2 and AA forcings in seasonal and regional climate attribution analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Multiaxial ratcheting of 20 carbon steel: Macroscopic experiments and microscopic observations

The multiaxial ratcheting behaviors of polycrystalline 20 ordinary carbon steel were investigated at room temperature. The macroscopic experimental results showed that the studied multiaxial ratcheting depends greatly on the mean stress, stress amplitude and loading path. The axial ratcheting strain increased with the increase of applied mean stress and stress amplitude. Apparent additional hardening was observed in the non-proportionally multiaxial cyclic loading. The multiaxial ratcheting of 20 carbon steel was lower than the corresponding uniaxial one and varies with different loading paths. Dislocation patterns and their evolutions of the multiaxial ratcheting of different loading paths were then investigated using transmission electron microscopy. The obtained images showed that, with the increasing number of loading cycles, the dislocation patterns evolved from dislocation lines and networks to dislocation tangles, walls and cells. After certain cycles, sub-grains were formed because of the re-arrangement of dislocations in the walls of cells and inside the cells since the cross slip of dislocations can be easily activated for the 20 carbon steel, a kind of body-centered cubic metal. The dislocation evolution of the multiaxial ratcheting is much quicker than that of the uniaxial one. With the reference to the uniaxial one of 20 carbon steel, the macroscopic multiaxial ratcheting behaviors can be qualitatively correlated with the microscopic observation of the dislocation patterns and their evolution. - Highlights: • Multiaxial loading hardly changes the cyclic stable feature of 20 carbon steel. • Multiaxial ratcheting of 20 carbon steel depends greatly on the load path. • Dislocation patterns evolve quicker in the multiaxial case. • The stabilized dislocation pattern is sub-grain, rather than the dislocation cell. • Sub-grains formed after certain cycles make the stable ratcheting strain rate large.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗

DOE OSTI2016

Heavy snow loads in Finnish forests respond regionally asymmetrically to projected climate change

This study examined the impacts of projected climate change on heavy snow loads on Finnish forests, where snow-induced forest damage occurs frequently. For snow-load calculations, we used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using a quantile-mapping method. Our results suggest that projected climate warming results in regionally asymmetric response on heavy snow loads in Finnish forests. In eastern and northern Finland, the annual maximum snow loads on tree crowns were projected to increase during the present century, as opposed to southern and western parts of the country. The change was rather similar both for heavy rime loads and wet snow loads, as well as for frozen snow loads. Only the heaviest dry snow loads were projected to decrease over almost the whole of Finland. Our results are aligned with previous snowfall projections, typically indicating increasing heavy snowfalls over the areas with mean temperature below -8 °C. In spite of some uncertainties related to our results, we conclude that the risk for snow-induced forest damage is likely to increase in the future in the eastern and northern parts of Finland, i.e. in the areas experiencing the coldest winters in the country. In conclusion, the increase is partly due to the increase in wet snow hazards but also due to more favourable conditions for rime accumulation in a future climate that is more humid but still cold enough.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Spatial Distribution Impacts of Rooftops Solar PV on Dynamic Hosting Capacity Evaluation for a Real Distribution Feeder

This paper models the sensitivity of dynamic hosting capacity analysis to the spatial distribution of distributed PV scenarios, random, close and far from substation deployments, at various penetration levels on a real distribution feeder, in a quasi-static time series (QSTS) power flow simulation using high resolution time-aware metrics. These spatial distribution scenarios were chosen to capture a wide range of potential operation impacts of these deployments using a set of thermaland voltage-based metrics such as instantaneous violations and moving averages for both thermal and voltage constraints. This study uses actual load and PV data up-scaled from 1-hour time step to 1-minute resolution to fully characterize the interaction between the daily changes in load and PV output, and their impacts on distribution system operations.

distribution system↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electrochemical Response of Alkaline Batteries Subject to Quasi-Static and Dynamic Loading

We report electrochemical changes were successfully monitored through the coupling of external loading, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), and distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis. The development of the testing methods allows for detailed observation of changes due to mechanical loading and distinguishes responses between different cell geometries. Comparison of the force vs displacement, voltage vs displacement, and distribution of relaxation times plots to the different cell geometries display failure modes specific to geometry as well as the impact of different loading profiles. Numerical modeling confirmed the movement within individual cells and predicted locations with the most deformation based on the external loading condition applied. The results gathered from combining mechanical loading, electrochemical response, and numerical modeling, yield a viable approach to establishing an improved understanding of the effects of mechanical loading on the electrochemical response of multiple battery geometries and the methods herein may be extensible to additional battery chemistries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2014

Comparative Prospective Study of Load Distribution Projection Among Patients with Vertebral Fractures Treated with Percutaneous Vertebroplasty and a Control Group of Healthy Volunteers

Purpose: Through a prospective comparison of patients with vertebral fractures and normal population, we illustrate effect of percutaneous vertebroplasty (PV) upon projection of load distribution changes. Methods: Vertebroplasty group (36 symptomatic patients with osteoporotic vertebral fractures) was evaluated on an electronic baropodometer registering projection of weight bearing areas on feet. Load distribution between right and left foot (including rear-front of the same foot) during standing and walking was recorded and compared before (group V1) and the day after (group V2) PV. Control group (30 healthy asymptomatic volunteers-no surgery record) were evaluated on the same baropodometer. Results: Mean value of load distribution difference between rear-front of the same foot was 9.45 ± 6.79 % (54.72–45.28 %) upon standing and 14.76 ± 7.09 % (57.38–42.62 %) upon walking in the control group. Respective load distribution values before PV were 16.52 ± 11.23 and 30.91 ± 19.26 % and after PV were 10.08 ± 6.26 and 14.25 ± 7.68 % upon standing and walking respectively. Mean value of load distribution variation between the two feet was 6.36 and 14.6 % before and 4.62 and 10.4 % after PV upon standing and walking respectively. Comparison of load distribution variation (group V1–V2, group V1-control group) is statistically significant. Comparison of load distribution variation (group V2-control group) is not statistically significant. Comparison of load distribution variation among the two feet is statistically significant during walking but not statistically significant during standing. Conclusions: There is a statistically significant difference when comparing load distribution variation prior vertebroplasty and that of normal population. After vertebroplasty, this difference normalizes in a statistically significant way. PV is efficient on equilibrium-load distribution improvement as well.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Adsorption mechanism of alkyl hydroxamic acid onto bastnäsite: Fundamental steps toward rational collector design for rare earth elements

Rare earth element (REE) production is limited in part by inefficient strategies for beneficiation. Hydroxamic acid ligands are promising reagents for the selective flotation of bastnäsite [(Ce,La)FCO 3 ], a major REE ore mineral, but the mechanism and energetics of adsorption are not understood, interfering with the design of new, more efficient reagents. In this work, the adsorption of octyl hydroxamic acid onto bastnäsite was calculated using a combination of experimental and computational methods. In-situ attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy revealed changes in the hydroxamate functional group vibrational frequencies, corresponding to chelation with cerium cations at the bastnäsite surface. The results indicate a monodentate chemisorption mechanism at low surface loading that changes to bidentate chemisorption at higher concentrations. This interpretation is supported by molecular vibrational frequency shifts calculated using density functional theory (DFT), and orientation of the hydrocarbon chain measured by sum frequency generation (SFG) vibrational spectroscopy. The binding enthalpies of octyl hydroxamic acid interacting with La and Ce-bastnäsite surfaces were measured using isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) revealing a stronger coordinating ability with bastnäsite than with a common gangue mineral, calcite (CaCO 3 ). Because octyl hydroxamate favors monodentate adsorption at low surface coverages, the relative chelating strength of metal ions could be a poor predictor for selectivity under monolayer adsorption conditions. At higher surface loadings, where the bidentate mode of adsorption is active, selectivity is likely to be limited by increased flotation of gangue ores.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Large-Scale Hardware Experiment Demonstration of Operating High Inverter-Based Resource Power Systems With Grid-Forming Inverters

This paper presents experimental hardware results from a microgrid system as the penetration level of grid-forming (GFM) inverters increases. The experiment aims to showcase the advantages of GFM inverters in enhancing system stability and to investigate the operational challenges in systems relying entirely on inverter-based resources (IBRs). Five test scenarios are devised to progressively increase GFM inverter penetration levels: 0% (S1), 19% (S2), 37% (S3), 68% (S4), and 100% (S5). To ensure consistency, identical loading conditions and dynamic events are applied across all scenarios. The conducted tests include load step changes, output variation of grid-following (GFL) inverters during islanded mode, transition operations (such as synchronization to the grid and islanding), and rateof- change-of-frequency (ROCOF) and voltage jump tests during grid-connected mode. Key findings from the tests are summarized as follows: (1) Scenario S1 proved most challenging for load steps, and GFL variations because of insufficient GFM capacity, leaving the diesel generator unable to handle transient ridethrough; (2) Scenario S5 was the most difficult for transition operations, because the lack of a diesel generator to maintain stiff bus voltage resulted in unexpected reactive power flows during synchronization, causing the point of common coupling (PCC) breaker to trip; (3) Scenarios S4 and S5 were particularly challenging for ROCOF tests because of minimal system inertia, leading to large transients that triggered breaker trips; and (4) Scenario S4 exhibited the strongest voltage recovery capability because of the presence of the diesel generator and a higher number of GFM inverters, both of which possess the highest capacity for reactive power injection.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2012

Demand Side Management in the Smart Grid: Information Processing for the Power Switch

In this article we discuss the most recent developments in the area of load management, and consider possible interaction schemes of novel architectures with distributed energy resources (DER). In order to handle the challenges faced by tomorrow’s smart grid, which are caused by volatile load and generation profiles (from the large number of plug-in EVs and from renewable integration), the conventional grid operating principle of load-following needs to be changed into load-shaping or generation-following. Demand Side Management will be a most promising and powerful solution to the above challenges. However, many other issues such as load forecasting, pricing structure, market policy, renewable integration interface, and even the AC/DC implementation at the distribution side, need to be taken into the design in order to search for the most effective and applicable solution.

Demand Response↗

DOE OSTI2017

Analysis of a nuclear hybrid energy system using absorption chillers and stratified chilled-water storage with an mPower reactor - 187

The intermittency of renewable energy technology, such as wind and solar power, puts strain on electric grids, often forcing carbon-based and nuclear sources of energy to operate in a load follow mode. Operating nuclear reactors in a load-follow fashion is undesirable due to the associated thermal and mechanical stresses placed on the fuel and reactor components. Various methods of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) can be coupled to nuclear (or renewable) power sources to help absorb grid instabilities caused by daily load demand changes and renewable intermittency. This is known as a Nuclear Hybrid Energy System (NHES). Previous research has found that a stratified chilled-water storage tank can help displace peak cooling loads to off-peak hours. In this study, a dynamic single effect, lithium bromide absorption chiller model was developed as a callable FORTRAN subroutine. Cooling towers, a stratified chilled-water storage tank, and cooling loads characteristic of a large campus were included to form a comprehensive TES model. This TES model was coupled to a high-fidelity mPower sized Small Modular Reactor (SMR) FORTRAN code that provides the transient behavior of primary and secondary-side components. Control algorithms based on excess capacity and conditions in the stratified chilled-water storage tank were used to determine when to divert low-pressure steam from the turbines to the absorption chillers in order to keep reactor power near steady-state. Simulation results depict how the TES system and SMR interact, and demonstrate that stratified chilled-water storage is a viable TES technology for an SMR in a NHES. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Influence of Alternating Short-Cycle Bending on the Mechanical Properties of Copper, α-Titanium and the Mild Steel DC01

The influence of alternating bending loads as they occur during roller levelling on the mechanical properties of sheet metals is not yet fully understood. A detailed knowledge of the influence of the commonly used levelling process on the resulting properties of sheet material is needed in particular for the design of subsequent processes with narrow process windows. To investigate the mechanical property changes during loading conditions similar to roller levelling, sheet samples of mild steel DC01, α-titanium and pure copper (CU-DHP) were subjected to alternating bending loads with different amplitudes for up to 9.5 bending cycles. An isotropic hardening behavior according to a Voce description could be shown for the DC01 deep drawing steel with a strong dependence on the load amplitude applied per cycle. A strengthening behavior that depends on the loading amplitude could be observed for α-titanium as well. In contrast, pure copper featured minor changes with a tendency to soften. For all three materials, changes in springback were present after one bending cycle.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chemical Feedback in the Self-Assembly and Function of Air–Liquid Interfaces: Insight into the Bottlenecks of CO 2 Direct Air Capture

As fossil fuels remain a major source of energy throughout the world, developing efficient negative emission technologies, such as direct air capture (DAC), which remove carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the air, becomes critical for mitigating climate change. Although all DAC processes involve CO 2 transport from air into a sorbent/solvent, through an air–solid or air–liquid interface, the fundamental roles the interfaces play in DAC remain poorly understood. In this work, we study the interfacial behavior of amino acid (AA) solvents used in DAC through a combination of vibrational sum frequency generation spectroscopy and molecular dynamics simulations. This study revealed that the absorption of atmospheric CO 2 has antagonistic effects on subsequent capture events that are driven by changes in bulk pH and specific ion effects that feedback on surface organization and interactions. Among the three AAs (leucine, valine, and phenylalanine) studied, we identify and separate behaviors from CO 2 loading, chemical changes, variations in pH, and specific ion effects that tune structural and chemical degrees of freedom at the air–aqueous interface. The fundamental mechanistic findings described here are anticipated to enable new approaches to DAC based on exploiting interfaces as a tool to address climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Review of Transformer Aging and Control Strategies

Transformer aging is an important challenge in power system. Distribution transformers themselves are minimally controllable, but smart meters provide excellent, new insights into electrical loads, which insights can be used to understand and mitigate transformer aging. The nature of transformer loads is changing with the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) and electric vehicles (EVs). This paper first reviews factors that influence the aging of distribution transformers, including root causes of transformer failure. Existing and proposed load control methods are then discussed. A distribution model is introduced to help evaluate potential control methods.

Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gup↗

DOE OSTI2017

Time-varying value of electric energy efficiency

Electric energy efficiency resources save energy and may reduce peak demand. Historically, quantification of energy efficiency benefits has largely focused on the economic value of energy savings during the first year and lifetime of the installed measures. Due in part to the lack of publicly available research on end-use load shapes (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings) and energy savings shapes, consideration of the impact of energy efficiency on peak demand reduction (i.e., capacity savings) has been more limited. End-use load research and the hourly valuation of efficiency savings are used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity and demand response planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service. This study reviews existing literature on the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings, provides examples in four geographically diverse locations of how consideration of the time-varying value of efficiency savings impacts the calculation of power system benefits, and identifies future research needs to enhance the consideration of the time-varying value of energy efficiency in cost-effectiveness screening analysis. Findings from this study include: -The time-varying value of individual energy efficiency measures varies across the locations studied because of the physical and operational characteristics of the individual utility system (e.g., summer or winter peaking, load factor, reserve margin) as well as the time periods during which savings from measures occur. -Across the four locations studied, some of the largest capacity benefits from energy efficiency are derived from the deferral of transmission and distribution system infrastructure upgrades. However, the deferred cost of such upgrades also exhibited the greatest range in value of all the components of avoided costs across the locations studied. -Of the five energy efficiency measures studied, those targeting residential air conditioning in summer-peaking electric systems have the most significant added value when the total time-varying value is considered. -The increased use of rooftop solar systems, storage, and demand response, and the addition of electric vehicles and other major new electricity-consuming end uses are anticipated to significantly alter the load shape of many utility systems in the future. Data used to estimate the impact of energy efficiency measures on electric system peak demands will need to be updated periodically to accurately reflect the value of savings as system load shapes change. -Publicly available components of electric system costs avoided through energy efficiency are not uniform across states and utilities. Inclusion or exclusion of these components and differences in their value affect estimates of the time-varying value of energy efficiency. -Publicly available data on end-use load and energy savings shapes are limited, are concentrated regionally, and should be expanded.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficiency and Demand Flexibility in Large Office Buildings

Data is associated with Report "Efficiency and Demand Flexibility in Large Office Buildings" by Joyce McLaren, Thomas Bowen, and Chioke Harris ( https://doi.org/10.2172/1989231 ). Results are created from repos GEB_ECM_Impact_Estimator ( https://github.nlr.gov/tbowen/GEB_ECM_Impact_Estimator ). Results outline the changes in building load in large office buildings based on measures from NREL's Scout, and the impacts those changes in load have on grid-induced emissions, grid operating costs, and customer bills.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Anomaly Detection, Localization and Classification using Drifting Synchrophasor Data Streams

With ongoing automation and digitization of the electric power system, several Phasor Measurement Units(PMUs) have been deployed for monitoring and control. PMU data can have multiple anomalies, and many of the researchers in the past have concentrated on training machine/deep learning algorithms offline for anomaly detection over PMU data (i.e., not in real time). These machine/deep learning algorithms, when trained offline on a sample rather than a population of the dataset, fail to consider the dynamic behavior of the power grid in real-time, resulting in low accuracy. Considering the dynamic behavior of the power grid (e.g., change in load, generation, distributed energy resources (DERs) switching, network, controls), the definition of data anomalies varies in time and requires online training. A fundamental challenge is to enable online (i.e., real-time) training of machine/deep learning algorithms for anomaly detection over streaming PMU data. While machine/deep learning is often desirable to manage data streams, training a deep learning algorithm over streaming PMU data is nontrivial due to changes in data statistics caused by dynamic streaming data. This paper proposes PMUNET: a novel device-level deep learning-based data-driven approach for anomaly detection, localization, and classification over streaming PMU data, using online learning and multivariate data-drift detection algorithm .Two variants of PMUNET, Dynamic data Change Driven Learning (DCDL) and Continuity Driven Learning (CDL), are proposed and compared. DCDL aims to train the deep learning algorithm whenever the definition of anomaly changes due to the power grid dynamics. On the other hand, CDL continuously trains the deep learning algorithm over the PMU data-stream. The experimental results verify that DCDL outperforms CDL and other efficient anomaly detection methods over multiple events such as faults and load/ generator/capacitor/DERs variations/switching for IEEE 14 and 39 Bus test system as well as real PMU industrial data. The result verifies that DCDL variant of PMUNET improves over existing approach with a gain of 2% - 10% in terms of accuracy, false-positive rate, and false-negative rate.

adversarial deep learning↗