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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER). This document builds on details established in the single-stage document (Maguire et al. 2025) to detail differences in the approach to modeling this higher efficiency, but more commonly deployed, type of geothermal heat pump. Specific EnergyPlus objects and product specific curves used are highlighted along with showing the results of this measure compared to the baseline and single-speed geothermal heat pumps. Two-speed geothermal heat pumps are able to save even more energy and on utility bills than single-speed products, albeit at the expense of a higher first cost.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume III – Stakeholder ecosystem management challenges, and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on demand flexibility program stakeholder ecosystem management strategies, which provide information on value delivery and describe how program implementers leverage partner capabilities and collaborate to deliver customer and grid benefits. This report discusses the role of stakeholder ecosystem management in demand flexibility programs, identifies existing challenges to effective stakeholder management, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on value propositions, customer relationship management strategies, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume I – Value proposition characteristics, challenges, and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on demand flexibility value propositions, which provide information on value creation and describe how programs deliver clear benefits that address customer and grid needs. This report discusses the role of value propositions in demand flexibility programs, provides an overview of value propositions for a range of demand flexibility stakeholders, identifies existing challenges to establishing an effective value proposition, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on customer relationship management strategies, stakeholder ecosystem management, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume IV – Program life cycle challenges and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on the life cycle of demand flexibility programs, which provides information on value creation and describes the various deployment phases program implementers navigate from initial program conceptualization through to program expansion and replication to new customer segments and regions. This report characterizes the key phases of the demand flexibility program life cycle, identifies existing challenges across the program deployment phases, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on customer relationship management strategies, stakeholder ecosystem management, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Thermostat Control for Load Shedding in Large Offices

This documentation focuses on a single End-Use Savings Shape measure - thermostat control for load shedding. The thermostat control for load shedding measure applies heating and cooling temperature setpoint offsets for reducing the heating and cooling load during peak window. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the peak window, and then adjusts the thermostat cooling and/or heating setpoints by an offset value from original schedules during the peak window to reduce the HVAC or whole building daily peak load. The measure is flexible and allows users to adjust the heating and cooling offset values respectively, but for this study, the adjustment for heating and cooling setpoints are set to -2 degrees Celsius and +2 degrees Celsius by default. The measure provides options of adding rebound control period (default 2 hours) after peak windows for the setpoints to be ramped back to default values, to prevent the system from generating higher peak demand with step changes of setpoints in post-peak periods . This measure is applicable t o large offices equipped with electric HVAC system (either electric cooling only or both electric heating and cooling), which account for approximately 8.72% of the ComStock floor area. The thermostat control for load shedding measure demonstrates 2-5% daily peak demand reduction and 0.068% total site energy savings (3 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume II – Customer relationship management strategies, challenges, and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on demand flexibility program customer relationship management strategies, which provide information on value creation and focus on ensuring customers can navigate programs smoothly. This report discusses the role of customer relationship management strategies in demand flexibility programs, characterizes customer relationship management strategies that can be considered during program design and implementation, identifies existing challenges to customer relationship management strategies, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on value propositions, stakeholder ecosystem management, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Lighting Control for Load Shedding

This report describes the modeling methodology for a single end-use savings shape measure - lighting control for load shedding - and briefly introduces key results. The lighting control for load shedding measure applies lighting dimming control to reduce the lighting load during the building's electricity peak window every weekday. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the predicted peak window, and then adjusts the lighting dimming level by a percentage reduction from the original schedules during the peak window to reduce the peak demand. The measure is applicable to (large, medium and small) offices, warehouses, and primary and secondary schools, which correspond to approximately 68% of the stock floor area of commercial buildings in ComStock analysis. The measure demonstrates 2%-7% daily peak demand reduction performance for applicable buildings, and 0.43% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Models implemented in the methodological approach to design the initial STEP first wall contour

The official Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production mission aims to demonstrate the ability to generate net electricity from fusion with the STEP Prototype Power plant. One of the key technological and engineering challenges in fusion power plants is managing the loads on the first wall within acceptable limits. Therefore, the conceptual design development of the STEP Prototype Power plant needs to be based on load estimates derived using legitimate plasma physics assumptions through dynamic and flexible tools. The current design foresees the STEP main chamber first wall to withstand steady-state heat loads of up to ~1 MW/m 2 , excluding critical regions expected to receive higher heat loads such as the baffle regions approaching the divertors. These critical areas will require ad hoc assessments and will be designed with the presence of limiters. This article focuses on the models and methodology adopted for designing the 2-D poloidal contour of the STEP first wall, based on the anticipated charged particle and radiation heat loads during normal operation. Firstly, the models adopted for calculating the charged particle and radiation heat loads are introduced. The first model is validated through benchmarking against the particle tracing code SMARDDA, while the second model is verified by comparing it with data from the MAST-U experiment. Secondly, the model used to design the 2-D first wall contour according to the heat loads is explained. We acknowledge that this preliminary design stage assumes certain simplifications, notably an axisymmetric geometry, for computational efficiency and clarity in presentation. It is understood that subsequent design phases will address the complexities of real-world engineering, including non-axisymmetric effects, transient plasma scenarios, and the impact of disruptions on the first wall design. Finally, an automatic procedure based on these models is presented for defining the 2-D poloidal contour of the STEP first wall to minimize heat loads, taking into account the need to radiate most of the alpha-particle and auxiliary heating power. Here, by providing an overview of the models, methodology, and an automatic procedure, this paper contributes to the design process of the STEP first wall, addressing the engineering challenges associated with fusion power plant development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat and Lighting Control for Load Shedding

This report describes the modeling methodology for an upgrade package of two end-use savings shape measures - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding and Lighting Control for Load Shedding - and briefly introduces key results. The package combines thermostat control for load shedding and lighting control for load shedding measures to reduce the HVAC and lighting load during the building's electricity peak window every weekday. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the predicted peak window, and then relaxes the thermostat setpoints and dims the lighting level from the original schedules during the peak window to reduce the peak demand. The measure is applicable to (large, medium and small) offices, warehouses, and primary and secondary schools, which correspond to approximately 68% of the stock floor area of commercial buildings in ComStock analysis. The measure demonstrates 3%-10% daily peak demand reduction performance for applicable buildings, and 0.97% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat and Lighting Control for Load Shedding + Photovoltaics With 40% Rooftop Coverage

This report describes the modeling methodology for an upgrade package of two end-use savings shape measures - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding and Lighting Control for Load Shedding - and briefly introduces key results. The package combines thermostat control for load shedding, lighting control for load shedding, and PV with 40% rooftop coverage measures to reduce the net building load during the building's electricity peak window every weekday. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the predicted peak window, and then relaxes the thermostat setpoints and dims the lighting level from the original schedules during the peak window to reduce the peak demand, while applying the fixed rooftop PV application for onsite electricity generation. The measure is applicable to (large, medium and small) offices, warehouses, and primary and secondary schools, which correspond to approximately 68% of the stock floor area of commercial buildings in ComStock analysis. The measure demonstrates 5%-15% daily peak demand reduction performance for applicable buildings, and around 1% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

High mass loading potassium ion stabilized manganese dioxide nanowire forests for rechargeable Zn batteries

Manganese dioxide (MnO 2 ) represents an ideal cathode material for rechargeable aqueous Zn batteries due to its high theoretical capacity (308 mAh g -1 ), suitable potential (1.4 V vs. Zn 2+ /Zn), natural abundance, and negligible toxicity. However, the capacity and rate capability of MnO 2 deteriorate significantly in thick electrodes owing to its low electrical and ionic conductivities. Herein, we report the design of high mass loading potassium ion stabilized α-MnO 2 (K 0.133 MnO 2 ) nanowire forests on carbon cloth through a seed-assisted hydrothermal method for Zn batteries. Further, the vertically aligned K 0.133 MnO 2 nanowire forests with uninterrupted charge transport afford a high area capacity of 3.54 mAh cm -2 and a capacity retention of 79.2% over 1000 cycles in aqueous electrolyte. Moreover, the high area capacity and cyclability can be readily transferred to quasi-solid-state devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Valuing EV Managed Charging for Bulk Power Systems

When and where electric vehicle (EV) charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread EV adoption, especially with high shares of wind and solar generation. This study extends previous works by leveraging detailed simulation models for EV adoption, EV use, EV charging, and bulk power system operations, and by linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This technical potential study focuses on how the value of EV managed charging (EVMC) changes depending on charging flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and managed charging participation rate. We show that naively aggregating EV charging flexibility from individual vehicles into megawatt-scale resources grossly overestimates the flexibility of the fleet, because such aggregate models can unrealistically pair, e.g., one already-fully-charged vehicle's ability to increase load with another already-charging vehicle's ability to accept more charge, effectively requesting a charging rate that is infeasible for the latter vehicle. We find per-vehicle bulk system value is highest at low participation rates for all dispatch mechanisms. Factoring in production cost savings, avoided firm capacity savings, and combustion-related power sector emissions savings, we estimate the value of EVMC at low participation rates (5%) to be $33/vehicle-year to $69/vehicle-yr for within-session charging flexibility and $40/vehicle-yr to $120/vehicle-yr for within-week charging flexibility in an envisioned 2038 New England power system and monetary value reported in 2016 U.S. dollars. At 100% participation, per-vehicle value declines to $25/vehicle-yr to $31/vehicle-yr for within-session charging flexibility and to $29/vehicle-yr to $36/vehicle-yr for within-week charging flexibility; however, 100% participation yields the highest total system savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of frequency and amplitude dependence on the cyclic degradation of polyurethane foams

Many energy absorption applications utilize flexible polymeric foams for their viscoelastic properties. It is desired that the material will perform consistently across repeated compression cycles. This study examines the effect of fatigue at low strain rates on the viscoelasticity of open-cell polyurethane foam. Six polyurethanes of the same base composition with two porosities (70% and 80%) and three chemical indexes (79i, 100i, and 121i) are tested. Large deformation cyclic compression of the foams is conducted on a universal testing system (UTS). These data are then post-processed leveraging dynamic mechanical analysis Fourier transform rheology to characterize changes in the viscoelasticity of the materials over fatigue cycles. Results show that foams can increase or decrease in stiffness up to 10% over 10 4 cycles. Specifically, higher chemical index, higher excitation frequency, and larger excitation amplitude correlate with a more pronounced decrease in stiffness. Damping can also change by 15% and correlates with chemical index and excitation frequency. Consequently, the findings suggest that internal foam structure and bulk material properties as well as applied loading parameters affect the viscoelastic fatigue response of flexible polymeric foams.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing thermal comfort and participation in residential demand flexibility programs

Residential space-conditioning-based demand flexibility (DF) has become an increasingly sought-after method for demand-side load management to enhance grid reliability and facilitate integration of renewable energy generation. However, predicting the effectiveness and flexibility of residential DF resources is challenging due to the variability in household energy use behaviors. Current estimates show that only 50 % of projected savings from DF resources are actualized due to regulatory, technological, and social barriers. From a household perspective, concerns over thermal comfort during space conditioning-based DF events significantly impact participation decisions. Currently, there is a very limited understanding of how thermal comfort during space-conditioning-based DF events in real-world settings impacts household energy use behaviors and, consequently, the success of DF programs in achieving targeted savings. This paper proposes a method to comprehensively assess the thermal comfort implications of DF strategies and presents results of their impacts on DF event participation decisions and demand savings. Here, the proposed method was applied to a heat pump DF field study in Cordova, Alaska. The study’s key findings are: 1) DF event setpoint offsets that maintain indoor operative temperatures between 18 to 22 °C (65 to 71°F) may be preferred in Cordova, Alaska; 2) Household-level thermal comfort is more sensitive to the duration of the DF event than to the degree of temperature offset from baseline conditions; 3) The delayed impact of changes in indoor operative temperature in response to setpoint offsets, both during and after a DF event, influences occupants’ thermal comfort perceptions and willingness to persistently participate in events. The findings from application of the proposed method can help inform future larger-scale occupant-centric DF programs as it can capture information not readily available through utility and device-level energy use data. Thus, it can supplement these sources and help program administrators develop occupant-centric DF strategies, enabling more accurate predictions of participation rates and savings estimates for space-conditioning-based DF programs.

Demand side management↗