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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Local nm-Scale Imaging of Electrical Contact for Series Resistance Degradation of Silicon Solar Cells

We report on an electrical conduction mechanism for series resistance (Rs) degradation observed in a utility scale solar farm by nm-scale imaging of the local resistance at the Ag/Si interface of c-Si front metallization. Scanning spreading resistance microscopy imaging revealed that the number of point or small area electrical contacts decreased in a degraded cell compared to an unaffected cell, demonstrating the direct root cause of the Rs degradation. The degraded cell shows both a morphological and chemical difference in the screen-printed finger contact compared to the unaffected cell, which likely caused the degradation during the long-term field service. The reduction in electrical contact is likely caused by a structural change: The Ag particles in contact with the Si cell aggregate into bulk Ag, and a highly resistive ceramic oxide is formed in a "belt" shape at the Ag/Si interface. This resistive belt with a thickness of ~1 um blocks the current conduction from cell emitter to the Ag grid. Our results demonstrate an example of the multi-scale characterization approach for understanding degradation mechanisms in photovoltaics.

c-Si solar cell↗
DOE OSTI2022

Local nm-Scale Imaging of Electrical Contact for Series Resistance Degradation of Silicon Solar Cells

We report on an electrical conduction mechanism for series resistance (Rs) degradation observed in a utility scale solar farm by nm-scale imaging of the local resistance at the Ag/Si interface of c-Si cell front metallization. Our previous work showed that the I-V measurement of individual cells demonstrated exclusively the cell Rs degradation, and the "beads pattern" of electroluminescence indicated the degradation at the Ag grid of front metallization. Scanning spreading resistance microscopy (SSRM) imaging, which is based on the contact mode of atomic force microscopy and taken on the cross-sections of Ag/Si contact, revealed the electrical conduction pathway of Ag particles in point or small area contact with Si cell emitter. The SSRM results illustrated that the number of electrical contacts in the degraded cell decreased largely compared with the unaffected cell, demonstrating the direct cause of the Rs degradation. This reduction in electrical contact in the degraded cell could be caused by a structural change in the Ag grid during long-term field service: The Ag particles in contact with Si aggregate into the Ag bulk and a highly resistive ceramic oxide is formed in a "belt" shape at the Ag/Si interface. This resistive belt with a thickness of ~1 m blocks the current conduction from cell emitter to the Ag grid. The degraded cell shows both a morphological and chemical difference in the screen-printed finger contact compared to the unaffected cell, which likely caused the different degradation susceptibility during the long-term field service. Our results demonstrate an example of the multi-scale characterization approach for understanding photovoltaic degradation mechanisms.

ENGINEERING,SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2015

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Variability↗
NASA NTRS2019

Redefining Temperate Forest Responses to Climate and Disturbance in the Eastern United States: New Insights at the Mesoscale

Climate and disturbance alter forest dynamics, from individual trees to biomes and from years to millennia, leaving legacies that vary with local, meso and macroscales. Motivated by recent insights in temperate forests, we argue that temporal and spatial extents equivalent to that of the underlying drivers are necessary to characterize forest dynamics across scales. We focus specifically on characterizing mesoscale forest dynamics because they bridge fine‐scale (local) processes and the continental scale (macrosystems) in ways that are highly relevant for climate change science and ecosystem management. We revisit ecological concepts related to spatial and temporal scales and discuss approaches to gain a better understanding of climate–forest dynamics across scales.

climate↗
DOE OSTI2024

Localized Flexoelectric Effect Around Ba(CuNb) Nano‐Clusters in Epitaxial BiFeO 3 Films for Enhancement of Electric and Multiferroic Properties

Abstract Room‐temperature (RT) multiferroic materials have received significant research attention for various potential applications; however, their properties are not suitable for real‐world implementation. In this study, a nano‐scale localized flexoelectric effect is introduced to enhance the RT multiferroic performance of epitaxial bismuth iron oxide (BiFeO 3 ; BFO) thin films by embedding 10 mol% Ba(Cu 1/3 Nb 2/3 )O 3 (BCN) nano‐clusters into the host BFO film, which originally has a rhombohedral crystal structure. By utilizing nano‐clustering, a large out‐of‐plane coherent strain is localized around the nano‐clusters, resulting in a highly strained tetragonality of the BFO structure; subsequently, the films exhibit peculiar types of domains and domain walls, such as nano‐scale rotational vortices and antiparallel dipole configurations. These peculiar domain structures, which originate from the localized flexoelectric effect at the nano‐scale, enable excellent ferroelectric, ferromagnetic, and RT multiferroic magnetoelectric coupling. This study reveals that the local variation in the localized flexoelectric field around nano‐clusters considerably impacts the formation of unusual domain‐wall structures. This suggests that the controlled introduction of nano‐clusters with different crystal structures is promising for achieving the desired multiferroic properties.

Song, Hyunseok↗
NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of Temperature Maps of Selected Dawn Data Over the Surface of Vesta

The thermal behavior of areas of unusual albedo at the surface of Vesta can be related to physical properties that may provide some information about the origin of those materials. Dawn s Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIR) [1] hyperspectral cubes can be used to retrieve surface temperatures. Due to instrumental constraints, high accuracy is obtained only if temperatures are greater than 180 K. Bright and dark surface materials on Vesta are currently investigated by the Dawn team [e.g., 2 and 3 respectively]. Here we present temperature maps of several local-scale features that were observed by Dawn under different illumination conditions and different local solar times.

Tosi, F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coordination and divergence in community assembly processes across co-occurring microbial groups separated by cell size

Setting the pace of life and constraining the role of members in food webs, body size can affect the structure and dynamics of communities across multiple scales of biological organization (e.g., from the individual to the ecosystem). However, its effects on shaping microbial communities, as well as underlying assembly processes, remain poorly known. Here, we analyzed microbial diversity in the largest urban lake in China and disentangled the ecological processes governing microbial eukaryotes and prokaryotes using 16S and 18S amplicon sequencing. We found that pico/nano-eukaryotes (0.22–20 μm) and micro-eukaryotes (20–200 μm) showed significant differences in terms of both community composition and assembly processes even though they were characterized by similar phylotype diversity. We also found scale dependencies whereby micro-eukaryotes were strongly governed by environmental selection at the local scale and dispersal limitation at the regional scale. Interestingly, it was the micro-eukaryotes, rather than the pico/nano-eukaryotes, that shared similar distribution and community assembly patterns with the prokaryotes. This indicated that assembly processes of eukaryotes may be coupled or decoupled from prokaryotes’ assembly processes based on eukaryote cell size. While the results support the important influence of cell size, there may be other factors leading to different levels of assembly process coupling across size classes. Additional studies are needed to quantitatively parse the influence of cell size versus other factors as drivers of coordinated and divergent community assembly processes across microbial groups. Regardless of the governing mechanisms, our results show that there are clear patterns in how assembly processes are coupled across sub-communities defined by cell size. These size-structured patterns could be used to help predict shifts in microbial food webs in response to future disturbance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

A special class of planetary collisions - Theory and evidence

Collisions between comparable-sized planetary bodies are a special class of collisions, rarer than other collisions, but producing interesting products, such as unfractured dumbbell-shaped contact binaries, partly brecciated elongated bodies, totally brecciated spheroidal bodies, and perhaps co-orbiting binary pairs or swarms. Qualitative and rough quantitative theories are presented to indicate collision outcomes. Contact binaries or fractured elongated bodies as large as tens or hundreds of kilometers across can be produced - larger than hitherto considered. Lengths about 20 to 200 km are most probable for igneous or ordinary chondritic elongated objects formed by collision, but other lengths could result from tidal evolution of pairs. Though most elongated asteroids are probably collision fragments, as usually assumed, some may instead be accretionary products. Trojan asteroid 624 Hektor is a candidate. Some polymict, genomict, and monomict brecciated meteorites may be better explained by large-scale fragmentation and immediate gravitational re-assembly of parent bodies than by local-scale processes of cratering on parent-body surfaces.

Hartmann, W. K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Instrumentation for Examining Microbial Response to Changes In Environmental Pressures

The Automated Adaptive Directed Evolution Chamber (AADEC) is a device that allows operators to generate a micro-scale analog of real world systems that can be used to model the local-scale effects of climate change on microbial ecosystems. The AADEC uses an artificial environment to expose cultures of micro-organisms to environmental pressures, such as UV-C radiation, chemical toxins, and temperature. The AADEC autonomously exposes micro-organisms to selection pressures. This improves upon standard manual laboratory techniques: the process can take place over a longer period of time, involve more stressors, implement real-time adjustments based on the state of the population, and minimize the risk of contamination. We currently use UV-C radiation as the main selection pressure, UV-C is well studied both for its cell and DNA damaging effects as a type of selection pressure and for its related effectiveness as a mutagen; having these functions united makes it a good choice for a proof of concept. The AADEC roadmap includes expansion to different selection pressures, including heavy metal toxicity, temperature, and other forms of radiation.The AADEC uses closed-loop control to feedback the current state of the culture to the AADEC controller that modifies selection pressure intensity during experimentation, in this case culture density and growth rate. Culture density and growth rate are determined by measuring the optical density of the culture using 600 nm light. An array of 600 nm LEDs illuminate the culture and photodiodes are used to measure the shadow on the opposite side of the chamber.Previous experiments showed that we can produce a million fold increase to UV-C radiation over seven iterations. The most recent implements a microfluidic system that can expose cultures to multiple different selection pressures, perform non-survival based selection, and autonomously perform hundreds of exposure cycles. A scalable pump system gives the ability to pump in various different growth media to individual cultures and introduce chemical toxins during experimentation; AADEC can perform freeze and thaw cycles. We improved our baseline characterization by building a custom UV-C exposure hood, a shutter operates on a preset timer allowing the user to set exposure intensity consistently for multiple iterations.

Environment↗
NASA NTRS1983

Large- and small-scale spatial evolution of digitally processed ocean wave spectra from Seasat synthetic aperture radar

The threshold behavior of the azimuth response falloff in Seasat SAR imagery and its implications with respect to existing wave imaging theories is examined. The large-scale spatial evolution of a set of eight SAR image spectra with adjacent spacing of about 100 km, spanning about 700 km along the satellite orbit is considered. The small-scale evolution of a sequence of 23 spectra with adjacent spacing of about 2.2 km, spanning only about 48 km but experiencing depth changes from 200 to 35 m as well as unknown currents in the vicinity of the continental shelf is studied. The large-scale spatial evolution of the spectrum is generally consistent with the location of wave-generating sources, even when multiple wave systems are present. On a more local scale, the nearshore wave number spectrum responds to local depth changes but is too noisy to respond reliably to local current changes.

Beal, R. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Shallow Cloud Populations on Transitions to Deep Convection in the Amazon

Abstract In this study, a pair of convection-permitting (2-km grid spacing), month-long, wet-season Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations with and without the eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) scheme are performed for a portion of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) 2014/15 field campaign period. EDMF produces an ensemble of subgrid-scale convective plumes that evolve in response to the boundary layer meteorological conditions and can develop into shallow clouds. The objective of this study is to determine how different treatments of shallow cumulus clouds (i.e., with and without EDMF) impact the total cloud population and precipitation across the Amazonian rain forest, with emphasis on impacts on the likelihood of shallow-to-deep convection transitions. Results indicate that the large-scale synoptic conditions in the EDMF and control simulations are nearly identical; however, on the local scale their rainfall patterns diverge drastically and the biases decrease in EDMF. The EDMF scheme significantly increases the frequency of shallow clouds, but the frequencies of deep clouds are similar between the simulations. Deep convective clouds are tracked using a cloud-tracking algorithm to examine the impact of shallow cumulus on the surrounding ambient environment where deep convective clouds initiate. Results suggest that a rapid increase of low-level cloudiness acts to cool and moisten the low to midtroposphere during the day, favoring the transition to deep convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Early Holocene cold snaps and their expression in the moraine record of the eastern European Alps

Glaciers preserve climate variations in their geological and geomorphological records, which makes them prime candidates for climate reconstructions. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the past millennia is particularly relevant first because the amplitude and frequency of natural climate variability during the Holocene provides the climatic context against which modern, human-induced climate change must be assessed. Second, the transition from the last glacial to the current interglacial promises important insights into the climate system during warming, which is of particular interest with respect to ongoing climate change. Evidence of stable ice margin positions that record cooling during the past 12 kyr are preserved in two glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in the eastern European Alps, the Jamtal (JAM) and the Laraintal (LAR). We mapped and dated moraines in these catchments including historical ridges using beryllium-10 surface exposure dating (10Be SED) techniques and correlate resulting moraine formation intervals with climate proxy records to evaluate the spatial and temporal scale of these cold phases. The new geochronologies indicate the formation of moraines during the early Holocene (EH), ca. 11.0 ± 0.7 ka (n = 19). Boulder ages along historical moraines (n = 6) suggest at least two glacier advances during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250–1850 CE) around 1300 CE and in the second half of the 18th century. An earlier advance to the same position may have occurred around 500 CE. The Jamtal and Laraintal moraine chronologies provide evidence that millennial-scale EH warming was superimposed by centennial-scale cooling. The timing of EH moraine formation coincides with brief temperature drops identified in local and regional paleoproxy records, most prominently with the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO) and is consistent with moraine deposition in other catchments in the European Alps and in the Arctic region. This consistency points to cooling beyond the local scale and therefore a regional or even hemispheric climate driver. Freshwater input sourced from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which changed circulation patterns in the North Atlantic, is a plausible explanation for EH cooling and moraine formation in the Nordic region and in Europe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Fatigue: Computational Simulation

Fatigue is a primary consideration in the design of aerospace structures for long term durability and reliability. There are several types of fatigue that must be considered in the design. These include low cycle, high cycle, combined for different cyclic loading conditions - for example, mechanical, thermal, erosion, etc. The traditional approach to evaluate fatigue has been to conduct many tests in the various service-environment conditions that the component will be subjected to in a specific design. This approach is reasonable and robust for that specific design. However, it is time consuming, costly and needs to be repeated for designs in different operating conditions in general. Recent research has demonstrated that fatigue of structural components/structures can be evaluated by computational simulation based on a novel paradigm. Main features in this novel paradigm are progressive telescoping scale mechanics, progressive scale substructuring and progressive structural fracture, encompassed with probabilistic simulation. These generic features of this approach are to probabilistically telescope scale local material point damage all the way up to the structural component and to probabilistically scale decompose structural loads and boundary conditions all the way down to material point. Additional features include a multifactor interaction model that probabilistically describes material properties evolution, any changes due to various cyclic load and other mutually interacting effects. The objective of the proposed paper is to describe this novel paradigm of computational simulation and present typical fatigue results for structural components. Additionally, advantages, versatility and inclusiveness of computational simulation versus testing are discussed. Guidelines for complementing simulated results with strategic testing are outlined. Typical results are shown for computational simulation of fatigue in metallic composite structures to demonstrate the versatility of this novel paradigm in predicting a priori fatigue life.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hierarchical Fractional Advection-Dispersion Equation (FADE) to Quantify Anomalous Transport in River Corridor over a Broad Spectrum of Scales: Theory and Applications

Fractional calculus-based differential equations were found by previous studies to be promising tools in simulating local-scale anomalous diffusion for pollutants transport in natural geological media (geomedia), but efficient models are still needed for simulating anomalous transport over a broad spectrum of scales. This study proposed a hierarchical framework of fractional advection-dispersion equations (FADEs) for modeling pollutants moving in the river corridor at a full spectrum of scales. Applications showed that the fixed-index FADE could model bed sediment and manganese transport in streams at the geomorphologic unit scale, whereas the variable-index FADE well fitted bedload snapshots at the reach scale with spatially varying indices. Further analyses revealed that the selection of the FADEs depended on the scale, type of the geomedium (i.e., riverbed, aquifer, or soil), and the type of available observation dataset (i.e., the tracer snapshot or breakthrough curve (BTC)). When the pollutant BTC was used, a single-index FADE with scale-dependent parameters could fit the data by upscaling anomalous transport without mapping the sub-grid, intermediate multi-index anomalous diffusion. Pollutant transport in geomedia, therefore, may exhibit complex anomalous scaling in space (and/or time), and the identification of the FADE’s index for the reach-scale anomalous transport, which links the geomorphologic unit and watershed scales, is the core for reliable applications of fractional calculus in hydrology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates

The Indiana Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) led subtask 1.1 to assess the regional distribution and estimate the storage capacity of Ordovician-Cambrian stratigraphic units located within the partnership region. A comprehensive data set of wireline logs and petrophysical information was used to generate these interpretations. These data include core analysis for porosity and permeability, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), and existing well data including location and stratigraphic information. This report includes storage resource estimates (SREs) for three potential storage reservoirs(limestone and dolostone from the Upper Ordovician Trenton Limestone/Black River Group and equivalent units, the Middle Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone, and primary target reservoir rocks of the Lower Ordovician and Upper Cambrian Knox Supergroup and equivalent units) calculated using six methodologies: (1) a fixed value of porosity of 10 percent in all units evaluated; (2) a unique average porosity (per well) from wireline-derived porosity (neutron, sonic, and/or density porosity for each unit); (3) porosity values from core analysis; (4) a depth-dependent porosity model (Knox Supergroup only); (5) porosity based on a model based on petrophysical facies; and (6) SREs using National Energy Technology Laboratory’s CO2 Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO2-SCREEN beta V2). All methods used the same values for thickness for each unit. However, the areal extent of each assessment was limited by the data available for each method. Estimated volumes were calculated in 1-by-1 kilometer grid cells and summarized as county and total stratigraphic unit volumes. The resultant SREs mass are displayed using boxplots, which allow for comparing data statistics (mean values and variability) between methods. Differences observed in SRE results from the six methods are mainly attributable to differences in the data and conceptual models used to interpret or estimate porosity in each method. Based on this systematic variability between methods, it is inferred that methods 1, 4, and 6 are best used for regional-scale reconnaissance estimates of storage capacity while methods 2, 3, and 5 are more appropriate for local scales where more data is required. All estimates are data-density dependent and different methods require different amounts of data for reasonable assessments. ArcMap 10.5.1 software was used to portray SREs to help visualize spatial variance of estimates for each methodology, and more importantly, to highlight those areas having the greatest total storage potential estimates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ridge Orientations of the Ridge-Forming Unit, Sinus Meridiani, Mars-A Fluvial Explanation

Imagery and MOLA data were used in an analysis of the ridge-forming rock unit (RFU) exposed in Sinus Meridiani (SM). This unit shows parallels at different scales with fluvial sedimentary bodies. We propose the terrestrial megafan as the prime analog for the RFU, and likely for other members of the layered units. Megafans are partial cones of fluvial sediment, with radii up to hundreds of km. Although recent reviews of hypotheses for the RFU units exclude fluvial hypotheses [1], inverted ridges in the deserts of Oman have been suggested as putative analogs for some ridges [2], apparently without appreciating The wider context in which these ridges have formed is a series of megafans [3], a relatively unappreciated geomorphic feature. It has been argued that these units conform to the megafan model at the regional, subregional and local scales [4]. At the regional scale suites of terrestrial megafans are known to cover large areas at the foot of uplands on all continents - a close parallel with the setting of the Meridiani sediments at the foot of the southern uplands of Mars, with its incised fluvial systems leading down the regional NW slope [2, 3] towards the sedimentary units. At the subregional scale the layering and internal discontinuities of the Meridiani rocks are consistent, inter alia, with stacked fluvial units [4]. Although poorly recognized as such, the prime geomorphic environment in which stream channel networks cover large areas, without intervening hillslopes, is the megafan [see e.g. 4]. Single megafans can reach 200,000 km2 [5]. Megafans thus supply an analog for areas where channel-like ridges (as a palimpsest of a prior landscape) cover the intercrater plains of Meridiani [6]. At the local, or river-reach scale, the numerous sinuous features of the RFU are suggestive of fluvial channels. Cross-cutting relationships, a common feature of channels on terrestrial megafans, are ubiquitous. Desert megafans show cemented paleo-channels as inverted topography [4] with all these characteristics.

Wilkinson, M. Justin↗
NASA NTRS2023

Top‐Down Regulation by a Reindeer Herding System Limits Climate‐Driven Arctic Vegetation Change at a Regional Scale

Warming-driven growth of tall woody vegetation in the Arctic has the potential to accelerate climate change through multiple positive feedbacks. Local-scale evidence suggests that large herbivores limit this vegetation shift, but there is uncertainty at larger, regional scales whether current herbivory pressure is a major top-down control on ecosystem structure and functioning. Across a 67,000 km2 region of the Yamal Peninsula in West Siberia, we integrated satellite remote sensing with a novel data set mapping the migrations of herds comprising 151,000 domesticated reindeer. Where reindeer numbers varied over space, higher reindeer herbivory pressure was consistently linked with lower coverage of tall woody vegetation. Within areas dominated by this vegetation type, productivity and climate were increasingly decoupled where reindeer density was higher. Our spaceborne fingerprint detection suggests that large herbivores, at current population densities, counteract Arctic vegetation responses to climate change over large spatial scales.

Reindeer Herding System↗
NASA NTRS2010

Projecting the Local Impacts of Climate Change on a Central American Montane Avian Community

Significant changes in the climates of Central America are expected over the next century. Lowland rainforests harbor high alpha diversity on local scales (<1 km2), yet montane landscapes often support higher beta diversity on 10-100 km2 scales. Climate change will likely disrupt the altitudinal zonation of montane communities that produces such landscape diversity. Projections of biotic response to climate change have often used broad-scale modelling of geographical ranges, but understanding likely impacts on population viability is also necessary for anticipating local and global extinctions. We model species abundances and estimate range shifts for birds in the Tilaran Mountains of Costa Rica, asking whether projected changes in temperature and rainfall could be sufficient to imperil high-elevation endemics and whether these variables will likely impact communities similarly. We find that nearly half of 77 forest bird species can be expected to decline in the next century. Almost half of species projected to decline are endemic to Central America, and seven of eight species projected to become locally extinct are endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and Panam . Logistic-regression modelling of distributions and similarity in projections produced by temperature and rainfall models suggest that changes in both variables will be important. Although these projections are probably conservative because they do not explicitly incorporate biological or climate variable interactions, they provide a starting point for incorporating more realistic biological complexity into community-change models. Prudent conservation planning for tropical mountains should focus on regions with room for altitudinal reorganization of communities comprised of ecological specialists.

Gasner, Matthew R.↗