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At least 145 records · Page 8

Time-series forecasting using manifold learning, radial basis function interpolation, and geometric harmonics

We address a three-tier numerical framework based on nonlinear manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series, relaxing the “curse of dimensionality” related to the training phase of surrogate/machine learning models. At the first step, we embed the high-dimensional time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using nonlinear manifold learning (local linear embedding and parsimonious diffusion maps). Then, we construct reduced-order surrogate models on the manifold (here, for our illustrations, we used multivariate autoregressive and Gaussian process regression models) to forecast the embedded dynamics. Finally, we solve the pre-image problem, thus lifting the embedded time series back to the original high-dimensional space using radial basis function interpolation and geometric harmonics. The proposed numerical data-driven scheme can also be applied as a reduced-order model procedure for the numerical solution/propagation of the (transient) dynamics of partial differential equations (PDEs). In conclusion, we assess the performance of the proposed scheme via three different families of problems: (a) the forecasting of synthetic time series generated by three simplistic linear and weakly nonlinear stochastic models resembling electroencephalography signals, (b) the prediction/propagation of the solution profiles of a linear parabolic PDE and the Brusselator model (a set of two nonlinear parabolic PDEs), and (c) the forecasting of a real-world data set containing daily time series of ten key foreign exchange rates spanning the time period 3 September 2001–29 October 2020.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fluctuating charge-density-wave correlations in the three-band Hubbard model

The high-temperature superconducting cuprates host unidirectional spin- and charge-density-wave orders that can intertwine with superconductivity in nontrivial ways. While the charge components of these stripes have now been observed in nearly all cuprate families, their detailed evolution with doping varies across different materials and at high and low temperatures. We address this problem using nonperturbative determinant quantum Monte Carlo calculations for the three-band Hubbard model. Using an efficient implementation, we can resolve the model’s fluctuating spin and charge modulations and map their evolution as a function of the charge transfer energy and doping. We find that the incommensurability of the charge modulations is decoupled from the spin modulations and decreases with hole doping, consistent with experimental measurements at high temperatures. These findings support the proposal that the high-temperature charge correlations are distinct from the intertwined stripe order observed at low-temperature and in the single-band Hubbard model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modelling and computational improvements to the simulation of single vector-boson plus jet processes for the ATLAS experiment

This paper presents updated Monte Carlo configurations used to model the production of single electroweak vector bosons (W, Z/γ$^{∗}$) in association with jets in proton-proton collisions for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Improvements pertaining to the electroweak input scheme, parton-shower splitting kernels and scale-setting scheme are shown for multi-jet merged configurations accurate to next-to-leading order in the strong and electroweak couplings. The computational resources required for these set-ups are assessed, and approximations are introduced resulting in a factor three reduction of the per-event CPU time without affecting the physics modelling performance. Continuous statistical enhancement techniques are introduced by ATLAS in order to populate low cross-section regions of phase space and are shown to match or exceed the generated effective luminosity. This, together with the lower per-event CPU time, results in a 50% reduction in the required computing resources compared to a legacy set-up previously used by the ATLAS collaboration. The set-ups described in this paper will be used for future ATLAS analyses and lay the foundation for the next generation of Monte Carlo predictions for single vector-boson plus jets production.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Phonon gas model for thermal conductivity of dense, strongly interacting liquids

Developing predictive thermal property models for liquids based on microscopic principles has been elusive. The difficulty is that liquids have gas-like and solid-like attributes that are at odds when considering the frameworks of microscopic models: Models for gases are simple due to randomness and low density, whereas models for crystalline solids rely on symmetry and long-range order for easier calculation. The short-range order in liquids does, however, provide structure to neighboring molecules similar to amorphous solids, and there have been recent advances indicating that collective vibrational modes store heat in liquids. Models combining Debye approximations from solid-state physics and Frenkel’s theory of liquids can accurately predict the heat capacity of liquids. Phonon-like dispersions in liquids have also been widely observed in neutron scattering experiments. These developments motivate us to propose a model where high-frequency vibrational modes, which travel at the speed of sound and have a mean free path on the order of the average intermolecular distance, conduct heat in liquids. We use this liquid phonon gas model to calculate the thermal conductivity of liquids with varying intermolecular interaction energies from strongest to weakest—Coulomb, hydrogen-bonding, Keesom, and London dispersion energy. Generally, the model is more accurate as the intermolecular interaction energy and density of liquids increase. The calculated thermal conductivity of Coulombic-bound molten sodium nitrate and hydrogen-bonded water is within 1.46% and 2.98% of the experimentally measured values, respectively, across their entire temperature ranges. Further modal analysis of the velocity and the mean free path of collective vibrations could establish the liquid phonon gas model as an accurate model for weakly interacting liquids as well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improved internal short circuit models for thermal runaway simulations in lithium-ion batteries

Thermal runaway (TR) modeling is one of the primary tools that can be used to overcome challenges associated with lithium-ion battery (LIB) safety. Among all LIB accidents that have occurred over the past decade, Internal Short Circuit (ISC) remains the most common trigger mechanism. Many available models in the literature either use a simplified approach to simulate ISC or completely ignore its contribution. The aim of this study is to understand the nature of the heat released for different types of ISC scenarios, including aluminum-anode, anode–cathode, and copper-cathode ISC. We study ISC behavior using a coupled electrochemical–thermal model with an integrated TR chemical kinetics solver built in the COMSOL Multiphysics framework. The time duration of heat release and the magnitude of the peak ISC current are studied as functions of parameters such as the size of the penetrating filament and the capacity of the cell. The numerical results are used to build an empirical model validated against the published experimental TR propagation data. Our model can be successfully used as a viable low-cost substitute in lower order (lumped) TR simulations to enable TR prevention and mitigation.

Singh, Bakhshish Preet (ORCID:0000000264751992)↗

Paramagnon heat capacity in (Ti,Zr,Hf)NiFe x NiSn half-Heusler composites

As a measure of the temperature response of the energy of matter, the heat capacity $C_p$ is a fundamental thermodynamic property. Its dependence on magnetic field, especially at low temperatures, yields insight into the electronic, phononic, and magnetic states of condensed matter. Here, we present a set of paramagnetic and ferromagnetic (Ti, Zr, Hf)NiFe x Sn half-Heusler composites that exhibit low-field (<3 T) maxima in $C_p$ and higher-field magnetic quenching of the heat capacity at temperatures below 10 K. Using rigorous statistical analysis, we attribute the effect to the existence of paramagnons within the compounds. To explain the lowest-temperature (<4 K), low-field declines in $C_p$, we derive a magnon model up to fourth order in dispersion. While the combined paramagnon and magnon model matches the data well, the fit parameters are significantly underdetermined. Further, we provide a qualitative explanation of the secondary effect based on superconducting phases within the composites. Overall, our work highlights the insight of field-dependent heat capacity studies at fixed temperatures that cannot be as easily gleaned from the temperature-dependent heat capacity at fixed magnetic fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data Files for P. Mai et al., "Fluctuating charge-density-wave correlations in the three-band Hubbard model" (2024)

The high-temperature superconducting cuprates host unidirectional spin- and charge-density-wave orders that can intertwine with superconductivity in nontrivial ways. While the charge components of these stripes have now been observed in nearly all cuprate families, their detailed evolution with doping varies across different materials and at high and low temperatures. We address this problem using nonperturbative determinant quantum Monte Carlo calculations for the three-band Hubbard model. Using an efficient implementation, we can resolve the model’s fluctuating spin and charge modulations and map their evolution as a function of the charge transfer energy and doping. We find that the incommensurability of the charge modulations is decoupled from the spin modulations and decreases with hole doping, consistent with experimental measurements at high temperatures. These findings support the proposal that the high-temperature charge correlations are distinct from the intertwined stripe order observed at low-temperature and in the single-band Hubbard model.

cuprates↗

Tendencies of enhanced electronic nematicity in the Hubbard model and a comparison with Raman scattering on high-temperature superconductors

The pseudogap regime of the cuprate high-temperature superconductors is characterized by a variety of competing orders, the nature of which are still widely debated. Recent experiments have provided evidence for electron nematic order, in which the electron fluid breaks rotational symmetry while preserving translational invariance. Raman spectroscopy, with its ability to symmetry resolve low energy excitations, is a unique tool that can be used to assess nematic fluctuations and nematic ordering tendencies. Here we compare results from determinant quantum Monte Carlo simulations of the Hubbard model to experimental results from Raman spectroscopy in La 2-x Sr x CuO 4 , which show a prominent increase in the B 1g response around 10% hole doping as the temperature decreases, indicative of a rise in nematic fluctuations at low energy. Finally, our results support a picture of nematic fluctuations with B 1g symmetry occurring in underdoped cuprates, which may arise from melted stripes at elevated temperatures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Stable Higgs mode in anisotropic quantum magnets

Low-energy excitations associated with the amplitude fluctuation of an order parameter in condensed-matter systems can mimic the Higgs boson, an elementary particle in the standard model, and are dubbed as Higgs modes. Identifying the condensed-matter Higgs mode is challenging because it is known in many cases to decay rapidly into other low-energy bosonic modes, which renders the Higgs mode invisible. Therefore, it is desirable to find a way to stabilize the Higgs mode, which can offer an insight into the stabilization mechanism of the Higgs mode in condensed-matter physics. In quantum magnets, magnetic order caused by spontaneous symmetry breaking supports transverse (magnons) and longitudinal (Higgs modes) fluctuations. Additionally, when a continuous symmetry is broken, the Goldstone magnon mode generally has an excitation energy lower than that of the Higgs mode, causing a rapid decay of the latter. In this work, we show that a stable Higgs mode exists in anisotropic quantum magnets near the quantum critical point between the dimerized and magnetically ordered phases. We find that an easy axis anisotropy increases the magnon gap such that the magnon mode is above the Higgs mode near the quantum critical point, and the decay of the Higgs mode into the magnon mode is forbidden kinematically. Our results suggest that the anisotropic quantum magnets provide ideal platforms to explore the Higgs physics in condensed-matter systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Suppressed-moment 2-k order in the canonical frustrated antiferromagnet Gd 2 Ti 2 O 7

In partially ordered magnets, order and disorder coexist in the same magnetic phase, distinct from both spin liquids and spin solids. Here, we determine the nature of partial magnetic ordering in the canonical frustrated antiferromagnet Gd 2 Ti 2 O 7 , in which Gd 3+ spins occupy a pyrochlore lattice. Using single-crystal neutron-diffraction measurements in applied magnetic field, magnetic symmetry analysis, inelastic neutron-scattering measurements, and spin-wave modeling, we show that its low-temperature magnetic structure involves two propagation vectors (2-k structure) with suppressed ordered magnetic moments and enhanced spin-wave fluctuations. Our experimental results are consistent with theoretical predictions of thermal fluctuation-driven order in Gd 2 Ti 2 O 7 , and reveal that inelastic neutron-scattering measurements on powder samples can solve the longstanding problem of distinguishing single-k and multi-k magnetic structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reduced-order modeling of advection-dominated systems with recurrent neural networks and convolutional autoencoders

A common strategy for the dimensionality reduction of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) relies on the use of the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify a reduced subspace and the Galerkin projection for evolving dynamics in this reduced space. However, advection-dominated PDEs are represented poorly by this methodology since the process of truncation discards important interactions between higher-order modes during time evolution. In this study, we demonstrate that encoding using convolutional autoencoders (CAEs) followed by a reduced-space time evolution by recurrent neural networks overcomes this limitation effectively. We demonstrate that a truncated system of only two latent space dimensions can reproduce a sharp advecting shock profile for the viscous Burgers equation with very low viscosities, and a six-dimensional latent space can recreate the evolution of the inviscid shallow water equations. Additionally, the proposed framework is extended to a parametric reduced-order model by directly embedding parametric information into the latent space to detect trends in system evolution. Furthermore, our results show that these advection-dominated systems are more amenable to low-dimensional encoding and time evolution by a CAE and recurrent neural network combination than the POD-Galerkin technique.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Grounding our Understanding of the Impacts of Boreal Forest Expansion on Shallow Cumulus Clouds with a Simple Modeling Framework

Abstract The expansion of the boreal forest poleward is a potentially important driver of feedbacks between the land surface and Arctic climate. A growing body of work has highlighted the importance of differences in evaporative resistance between different possible future Arctic land covers, which in turn alters humidity and cloudiness in the boundary layer, for these feedbacks. While thus far this problem has been studied primarily with complex Earth system models, we turn to a locally focused, idealized model capable of diagnosing and testing the sensitivity of first-order processes connecting vegetation, the atmospheric boundary layer, and low clouds in this critical region. This allows us to benchmark the mechanisms and results at the center of predictions from larger-scale simulations. A surface dominated by broadleaf trees, characterized by higher albedo and lower surface evaporative resistance, drives cooling and moistening of the boundary layer relative to a surface of needleleaf trees, characterized by lower albedo and higher surface evaporative resistance. Differences in evaporative resistance between these hypothetical Arctic vegetation covers are of equal importance to changes in albedo for the initial response of the boundary layer to boreal expansion, even with our idealized approach. However, compensation between the elevation of the lifting condensation level (LCL) and more rapid growth of the mixed layer over higher evaporative resistance surfaces can minimize changes in the favorability of shallow clouds over different land cover types under some conditions. We then perform two tests on the sensitivity of this compensating effect, to changes in water availability, represented first by a reduction in boundary layer humidity and then by both a reduction in humidity and soil moisture available to our vegetation surface. Finally, given the importance of this potential LCL–mixed-layer height compensation in our idealized modeling results, we look to determine its relevance in observational data from a field campaign in boreal Finland. These observations do confirm that such a coupling plays an important role in cumulus-topped boundary layers over a needleleaf forest surface. While our results confirm some underlying mechanisms at the center of prior work with Earth system models, they also provide motivation for future work to constrain the impact of boreal forest expansion. This will include both large eddy simulations to examine the impact of processes and feedbacks not resolved by a mixed-layer model, as well as a more systematic evaluation and comparison of relevant observations at the site in Finland and sites from prior boreal field campaigns. Significance Statement Clouds and vegetation are both important components of the climate system that interact across a range of scales. These interactions are central to understanding how changes at the land surface feedback on climate. For example, if a forest expands or recedes, diagnosing how that will impact clouds will determine whether you predict warming or cooling temperatures from that shift in the forest area. These predictions are often made with complex Earth system models, but we look to a more idealized representation of the land–atmosphere system to diagnose how shallow clouds should respond to changes in surface properties with different scenarios of boreal forest expansion at a more foundational level. This both grounds our understanding of previous analysis and provides helpful direction for future studies of this relevant and impactful land cover change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Development and Validation of Resistance-Capacitance Model (RCM) for Phase Change Material (PCM) Embedded in 3D Periodic Structures

The low thermal conductivity of Phase Change Materials (PCM) can be improved with extended surfaces such as additively manufactured 3D periodic lattice structures. Three different aluminum alloy-based lattices (base sizes 10, 20, and 40 mm) with average porosity of 0.95 filled with paraffin wax, with a nominal phase change temperature of 55°C, were experimentally investigated. In this work, a computationally efficient 2D Resistance Capacitance-based model (RCM) was developed for predicting the thermal characteristics of these geometries. Non-uniform porosity in the PCM-metal domain was estimated using image processing and served as model input. The solver does not solve for higher-order physics as in CFD but still can provide a good prediction of thermal resistance and energy storage at a very low computational cost. The simulation-to-real-time factor for this geometry is of the order of 10-4, while CFD simulations typically have a real-time factor greater than 1. The model was validated against the experimental data for melting under three different heat fluxes (6250 W/m2, 12500 W/m2, and 18750 W/m2). The mean deviation of the predicted average PCM temperature was between 1.34 K-2.81 K for different cases. The maximum average temperature deviation of 5.45 K was observed for the 20 mm geometry at the highest heat flux test condition. The effects of natural convection were neglected in the model, but the predicted PCM temperature and energy storage still showed good agreement with the experimental data.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Physics insights from a large-scale 2D UEDGE simulation database for detachment control in KSTAR

A large-scale database of two-dimensional UEDGE simulations has been developed to study detachment physics in KSTAR and to support surrogate models for control applications. Nearly 70 000 steady-state solutions were generated, systematically scanning upstream density, input power, plasma current, impurity fraction, and anomalous transport coefficients, with magnetic and electric drifts across the magnetic field included. The database identifies robust detachment indicators, with strike-point electron temperature at detachment onset consistently T e,target ~ 3-4 eV, largely insensitive to upstream conditions. Scaling relations reveal weaker impurity sensitivity than one-dimensional models and show that heat flux widths follow Eich’s scaling only for uniform, low D and χ. Distinctive in–out divertor asymmetries are observed in KSTAR, differing qualitatively from DIII-D. Complementary time-dependent simulations quantify plasma response to gas puffing, with delays of 5 - 15 ms at the outer strike point and ∼ 40 ms for the low-magnetic-field-side radiation front. These dynamics are well captured by first-order-plus-dead-time models and are consistent with experimentally observed detachment-control behavior in KSTAR (Gupta et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion (submitted)).

Physics - Plasma physics↗

Pressure-Stabilized MnSb2 with Complex Incommensurate Magnetic Order

Marcasite-type compounds have been proposed as promising hosts of exotic magnetic quantum states, yet experimental realizations in stoichiometric, disorder-free systems remain limited. Here, we report the high-pressure stabilization and magnetic characterization of MnSb2, a marcasite-type compound that is thermodynamically metastable under ambient pressure. Single crystals were synthesized using a cubic multianvil press at 3.3 GPa and 490 °C for 24 h, and powder and single-crystal X-ray diffraction confirm the orthorhombic Pnnm structure. These crystals are stable at ambient pressure for a long time up to between 450 and 500 K. Heat-capacity measurements reveal phase transitions at approximately T0 ∼ 118 K and T1 ∼ 220 K. Neutron diffraction uncovers an unconventional magnetic state below T1 ∼ 220 K. Magnetic powder neutron diffraction refinements reveal possible multiple magnetic configurations that provide comparably acceptable fits to the experimental data. While most solutions are consistent with a spin-density-wave (SDW) description, helical models systematically yield inferior agreement factors. Across a broad range of models, the Mn ordered moment reaches a maximum value of approximately 2 μB and remains predominantly collinear, with minimal canting along the c-axis. At 200 K, the magnetic propagation vector is q = (0, 0.3975, 0.3783); upon cooling, the b component increases toward 0.5, reflecting a temperature-dependent evolution of the modulation. The need for modification of the magnetic model between high and low temperatures further highlights the complex and strongly temperature-dependent nature of the magnetic order in this system. These results establish MnSb2 as a pressure-stabilized marcasite magnet with a tunable, complex magnetic state and a compelling stoichiometric platform for exploring unconventional magnetic behavior, including potential altermagnetism.

Xu, Mingyu [Michigan State University , , , ,; Iow↗

Low-pass spectral analysis of time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography data

Low-pass spectral analysis (LPSA) is a recently developed dynamics retrieval algorithm showing excellent retrieval properties when applied to model data affected by extreme incompleteness and stochastic weighting. In this work, we apply LPSA to an experimental time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography (TR-SFX) dataset from the membrane protein bacteriorhodopsin (bR) and analyze its parametric sensitivity. While most dynamical modes are contaminated by nonphysical high-frequency features, we identify two dominant modes, which are little affected by spurious frequencies. The dynamics retrieved using these modes shows an isomerization signal compatible with previous findings. We employ synthetic data with increasing timing uncertainty, increasing incompleteness level, pixel-dependent incompleteness, and photon counting errors to investigate the root cause of the high-frequency contamination of our TR-SFX modes. By testing a range of methods, we show that timing errors comparable to the dynamical periods to be retrieved produce a smearing of dynamical features, hampering dynamics retrieval, but with no introduction of spurious components in the solution, when convergence criteria are met. Using model data, we are able to attribute the high-frequency contamination of low-order dynamical modes to the high levels of noise present in the data. Finally, we propose a method to handle missing observations that produces a substantial dynamics retrieval improvement from synthetic data with a significant static component. Reprocessing of the bR TR-SFX data using the improved method yields dynamical movies with strong isomerization signals compatible with previous findings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters

This paper introduces a computational framework to reconstruct and forecast a partially observed state that evolves according to an unknown or expensive-to-simulate dynamical system. Our reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters (ROAD-EnKFs) learn a latent low-dimensional surrogate model for the dynamics and a decoder that maps from the latent space to the state space. The learned dynamics and decoder are then used within an EnKF to reconstruct and forecast the state. Numerical experiments show that if the state dynamics exhibit a hidden low-dimensional structure, ROAD-EnKFs achieve higher accuracy at lower computational cost compared to existing methods. If such structure is not expressed in the latent state dynamics, ROAD-EnKFs achieve similar accuracy at lower cost, making them a promising approach for surrogate state reconstruction and forecasting.

Mathematics↗

On Stability of PQ-Controlled Grid-Following and Droop-Control Grid-Forming Inverters

In this paper, the nonlinearity impacts of PQ-control schemes and LCL filter parameter variations on the stability of grid-interactive inverters are studied under weak grid conditions. This work demonstrates that the control nonlinearity and parameter variations can cause unexpected instability at low power levels. This instability issue in the nominal operating range may occur under specific control parameters due to the shift of the low-frequency eigenvalues of PQ-controlled inverters. A full-order small-signal model for PQ-controlled inverters is applied to analyze this instability issue. Furthermore, the impacts of the droop coefficients on the stability of the droop-controlled grid-forming inverter are also investigated using the closed-loop inverter model. The findings are experimentally verified using a small-scale two-level 208 V, 5 kVA inverter feeding a 12 kW NHR 9410 power grid emulator and a hardware setup of a microgrid fed by two 5 kVA 208V inverters.

Hossen, Tareq↗