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Results for “material property uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Probabilistic Design of Composite Structures

A formal procedure for the probabilistic design evaluation of a composite structure is described. The uncertainties in all aspects of a composite structure (constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structural geometry, and service environments, etc.), which result in the uncertain behavior in the composite structural responses, are included in the evaluation. The probabilistic evaluation consists of: (1) design criteria, (2) modeling of composite structures and uncertainties, (3) simulation methods, and (4) the decision-making process. A sample case is presented to illustrate the formal procedure and to demonstrate that composite structural designs can be probabilistically evaluated with accuracy and efficiency.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational Modeling of Photovoltaic Mini-Modules Undergoing Accelerated Stress Testing

A finite element model of a four-cell photovoltaic mini-module was developed and compared to experimental results from an accelerated stress test protocol in order to validate that computational models can accurately represent their physical counterparts when subjected to mechanical loading and to assess mini-module representativeness against full scale photovoltaic modules. Deflected shapes across the simulated mini-modules were compared to measured mini-module shapes when subjected to various pressure loads. Displaced mini-module shape results constrained to the experimental protocols of 0.4 mm and 1.1 mm of displacement at the mini-module center were compared to experimental results of full-size modules subjected to module qualification test load levels of 1.0 kPa and 2.4 kPa, to assess if the bending of mini-modules was representative of full-sized modules under the load. Temperature cycling was incorporated into the model to simulate the impacts of stress due to thermal expansion of the backsheet and cells. A preliminary uncertainty analysis was performed to show how variations in material properties and geometric parameters change the simulation results.

computational modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Critical Assessment of Electronic Structure Descriptors for Predicting Perovskite Catalytic Properties

The discovery and design of materials which can efficiently catalyze the oxygen reduction and evolution reactions at reduced temperatures is important for facilitating the widespread adoption of fuel cell and electrolyzer technologies. Numerous studies have produced correlations between catalytic properties, such as oxygen surface exchange or electrode area specific resistance (ASR), and properties of the catalyst material. However, correlations have historically been limited in scope (e.g., using only a few materials or at a single temperature) and it has been difficult to provide detailed assessments of their robustness. Here, in this study, we assess the ability of the O p-band center electronic structure descriptor, obtained from density functional theory (DFT) calculations, to correlate with oxygen surface exchange rates, diffusivities, and area specific resistances for a large database of perovskite oxide catalytic properties. By data mining the literature, we obtain 747 catalytic property value data points spanning 299 unique perovskite compositions from 313 studies. We assess linear correlations of each property with the O p-band center and find generally modest correlations that are qualitatively useful (prediction mean absolute errors of about 0.5 log units are typical), where the correlations are improved at higher temperatures (e.g., 800 °C vs. 500 °C) and significantly improve when considering fits to the subset of materials which have multiple independent measurements. These findings suggest that the spread of property data is significantly influenced by experimental uncertainty, and subsequent measurements of additional materials will likely improve the O p-band center correlations.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Machine Learning Predicted Creep Property of Alumina-Forming Austenitic Alloys

The development of machine learning (ML) approaches in materials science offers the opportunity to exploit existing engineering and developmental alloy datasets, such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s consistently measured creep-rupture dataset for alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) alloys, to accelerate their further development. As a first step toward achieving ML insights for improved alloy design, the potential sources of uncertainty and their impacts on ML output are examined. It is observed that the selection of algorithms and features as well as data sampling significantly affects the performance of ML models, either positively or negatively. Further, the performance of various ML models in predicting the creep properties of AFA alloys is compared, with further evaluation by assessment of a small set of new developmental AFA alloys that were not part of the training dataset. The present study demonstrates that uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential in materials science for evaluating the performance of ML algorithms with specifically selected feature sets and obtaining a comprehensive understanding of their limitations and the resultant capability of effective prediction in complex materials systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Modeling Of Ocular Biomechanics In VIIP: Risk Stratification

Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome is a major health concern for long-duration space missions. Currently, it is thought that a cephalad fluid shift in microgravity causes elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) that is transmitted along the optic nerve sheath (ONS). We hypothesize that this in turn leads to alteration and remodeling of connective tissue in the posterior eye which impacts vision. Finite element (FE) analysis is a powerful tool for examining the effects of mechanical loads in complex geometries. Our goal is to build a FE analysis framework to understand the response of the lamina cribrosa and optic nerve head to elevations in ICP in VIIP. To simulate the effects of different pressures on tissues in the posterior eye, we developed a geometric model of the posterior eye and optic nerve sheath and used a Latin hypercubepartial rank correlation coef-ficient (LHSPRCC) approach to assess the influence of uncertainty in our input parameters (i.e. pressures and material properties) on the peak strains within the retina, lamina cribrosa and optic nerve. The LHSPRCC approach was repeated for three relevant ICP ranges, corresponding to upright and supine posture on earth, and microgravity [1]. At each ICP condition we used intraocular pressure (IOP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) measurements of in-flight astronauts provided by Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health Program, NASA Johnson Space Center. The lamina cribrosa, optic nerve, retinal vessel and retina were modeled as linear-elastic materials, while other tissues were modeled as a Mooney-Rivlin solid (representing ground substance, stiffness parameter c1) with embedded collagen fibers (stiffness parameters c3, c4 and c5). Geometry creationmesh generation was done in Gmsh [2], while FEBio was used for all FE simulations [3]. The LHSPRCC approach resulted in correlation coefficients in the range of 1. To assess the relative influence of the uncertainty in an input parameter on the peak strains, we ranked and then normalized these coefficients, considering that normalized values 0.5 implied a substantial influence on the range of the peak strains in the optic nerve head (ONH). IOP and ICP were found to have a major influence on the peak strains in the ONH, as did optic nerve and LC stiffness. Interestingly, the stiffness of the sclera far from the scleral canal did not have a large influence on peak strains in ONH tissues; however, the collagen fiber stiffness in the peripapillary sclera and annular ring both influenced the peak strains within the ONH. We have created a physiologically relevant model that incorporated collagen fibers to study the effects of elevated ICP. Elevated ICP resulted in strains in the optic nerve that are not predicted to occur on earth: the upright or supine conditions. We found that IOP, ICP, lamina cribrosa stiffness and optic nerve stiffness had the highest association with these extreme strains in the ONH. These extreme strains may activate mechanosensitive cells that induce tissue remodeling and are a risk factor for the development of VIIP.

biomechanics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian inference of fiber orientation and polymer properties in short fiber-reinforced polymer composites

Herein we present a Bayesian methodology to infer the elastic modulus of the constituent polymer and the fiber orientation state in a short-fiber reinforced polymer composite (SFRP). The properties are inversely determined using only a few experimental tests. Developing composite manufacturing digital twins for SFRP composite processes, including injection molding and extrusion deposition additive manufacturing (EDAM) requires extensive experimental material characterization. In particular, characterizing the composite mechanical properties is time consuming and therefore, micromechanics models are used to fully identify the elasticity tensor. Hence, the objective of this paper is to infer the fiber orientation and the effective polymer modulus and therefore, identify the elasticity tensor of the composite with minimal experimental tests. To that end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model coupled with a micromechanics model to infer the fiber orientation and the polymer elastic modulus simultaneously which we then use to estimate the composite elasticity tensor. We motivate and demonstrate the methodology for the EDAM process but the development is such that it is applicable to other SFRP composites processed via other methods. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides a reliable framework for the inference, with as few as three tensile tests, while accounting for epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Posterior predictive checks show that the model is able to recreate the experimental data well. The ability of the Bayesian approach to calibrate the material properties and its associated uncertainties, make it a promising tool for enabling a probabilistic predictive framework for composites manufacturing digital twins.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Round Robin Measurements of Molten Salt Properties for LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK) and NaCl-KCl Mixtures

The development, operation, and regulation of nuclear reactors that utilize molten salts as fuel or as heat transfer media require knowledge of the thermal properties of the salt systems and quantification of the corresponding uncertainties. Knowledge of molten salt properties is also necessary for applications in material synthesis, processing, separations, solar thermal power generation, and energy storage. A round robin was conducted with national laboratory and university participants from twenty-one laboratories in five countries to compare property measurements, to better understand uncertainties, and to identify possible best practices. Two salt mixtures, each from a common batch, were distributed to participants for evaluation: equimolar NaCl-KCl and 45.0LiF-13.7NaF-41.3KF mol % (FLiNaK). Measurements were performed to determine the major constituent composition, oxygen content, density, thermal expansivity, melting point, and thermal conductivity. Error analysis was performed on each measurement for uncertainty quantification for each type of property that was explored. Finally, the resulting discussion of the methodologies used in this work is meant to lay the groundwork for the development of standard methods and reference materials for future high-temperature property measurements on halide melts.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of uncertainty-aware equation-of-state models: Application to copper

Sophisticated hydrodynamic codes are commonly used to understand and predict events relevant to natural and applied sciences. The degree to which these simulations reflect reality, however, is dependent on how well we understand the materials and underlying physics involved. These research communities need material models that communicate the uncertainty in the physical properties, which at their basest form comes from the uncertainty in the underlying experimental measurements. Additionally, we have constructed a new framework for using both experimental measurements and the associated experimental uncertainties to build equation-of-state models that reflect not only current best measurements but also the accuracy of those measurements. This method had been used to construct an ensemble of equation-of-state models for copper that communicates the experimental uncertainties in the data through the equation-of-state model, which is available for application in any simulation metric of interest.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

X-ray diffraction measurements and pressure determination in nanosecond compression of solids up to 600 GPa

X-ray diffraction measurements under laser-driven dynamic compression now allow us to investigate the atomic structure of matter at TPa pressures and thousands of degree temperatures with broad implications for condensed matter physics, planetary science and astronomy. Furthermore, pressure determination in these experiments often relies on velocimetry measurements coupled with modeling that requires accurate knowledge of the optical and thermo-mechanical properties of a window material, resulting in significant systematic uncertainty. Here we demonstrate different approach applicable to X-ray diffraction experiments under quasi-isentropic ramp-compression based on the use of in-situ pressure calibrants, similar to the methods often adopted in static-compression experiments with diamond anvil cells. Focusing on experiments using a diamond window, we discuss challenges and mitigation strategies for the novel approach. Our study, in addition to providing new structural information of 5 metals up to hundreds of GPa, provides validation to the currently used methods based on time-resolved measurement of the diamond free-surface velocity, and reveals that the use of in-situ calibrants enables a factor of four reduction in the pressure uncertainty in these experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1975

Solid rocket motor nozzles

The steps in the nozzle design process are examined. The nozzle designer's role in defining design requirements and constraints is included along with discussions of each of the three basic phases of the nozzle design process itself: (1) aerodynamic design, in which the gas-contacting surfaces are configured to produce the required performance within the envelope limits; (2) thermal design, in which termal liners and thermal insulators are selected and configured to maintain the surfaces as closely as practical against effects of erosion and to limit the structure temperature to acceptable levels; and (3) structural design, in which materials are selected and configured to support the thermal components and to sustain the predicted loads. Analytical techniques that are used to establish thermal and structural design integrity and to predict nozzle performance are discussed along with methods for nozzle quality assurance. Emphasis is placed on nozzle design and materials for modern high-temperature aluminized propellants. Recurring nozzle design problems of graphite cracking and ejection, differential erosion at material interfaces, lack of sufficient proven nondestructive testing (NDT) techniques, the uncertainty of adhesive bonding, and inadequate definition of material properties, particularly at high temperatures are considered.

Ellis, R. A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification for misspecified machine learned interatomic potentials

The use of high-dimensional regression techniques from machine learning has significantly improved the quantitative accuracy of interatomic potentials. Atomic simulations can now plausibly target quantitative predictions in a variety of settings, which has brought renewed interest in robust means to quantify uncertainties. In many practical settings where model complexity is constrained (e.g., due to performance considerations), misspecification — the inability of any one choice of model parameters to exactly match all training data — is a key contributor to errors that is often disregarded. Here, we employ a recent misspecification-aware regression technique to quantify parameter uncertainties, which is then propagated to a broad range of phase and defect properties in tungsten. The propagation is performed through both brute-force resampling and implicit Taylor expansion. The propagated misspecification uncertainties robustly quantify and bound errors on a broad range of material properties. We demonstrate application to recent foundational machine learning interatomic potentials, accurately predicting and bounding errors in MACE-MPA-0 energy predictions across the diverse materials project database.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finite Element Modeling Used to Study Stress Distribution on the Foot

A method to study the stress distribution inside the forefoot during walking was developed at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation by a researcher from the NASA Glenn Research Center. In this method, a semiautomated process was outlined to create a three-dimensional, patient-specific, finite element model (FEM) of the forefoot using magnetic resonance images (MRI). The images were processed in Matlab using the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classification algorithm and Sobel edge detection to separate the different tissue types: bone, skin, fat, and muscle. This information was used to create curves and surfaces that were exported to an FEM preprocessor known as Truegrid. In Truegrid, eight-noded or brick elements were created by using surface mapping. The FEM was processed and postprocessed in Abaqus. Material properties of the models were obtained from past experiments such as fat pad confined compression, skin axial and biaxial tests, muscle in vivo compressive tests, and reference literature (bone properties). Nonlinear (hyperelastic) material models were used for the skin (epidermis and dermis), fat, and muscles; and a linear elastic model was used for the bones. Muscle activation during walking yielded uncertainties in the muscle material model since contracted muscles are stiffer than relaxed muscles. These uncertainties were resolved by performing a sensitivity analysis of the muscle material properties. The original properties were multiplied by arbitrary factors of 2, 3, 0.5, and 0.33. The strain and stress distributions, as well as the locations of peak values, were similar in all cases. The peak contact pressure P obtained for each case varied with respect to the applied factor f as follows:

Morales, Nelson↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of secondary electron yield uncertainty on the single-sided multipacting in dielectrics

Multipacting is an electrical discharge caused by the emission of secondary electrons which can occur in vacuum radio frequency systems. Generally multipacting is highly undesirable obstacle, which increases the noise level as well as the return loss of radio frequency systems. Therefore, a prediction of multipacting is necessary to avoid it during radio frequency system design. In this regard, the accurate evaluation of the factors that affect multipacting is required. One of the critical factors determining the multipacting development is the secondary electron yield of the material. In practice the emission properties of materials are not known very accurately. There are uncertainties in the measured values of this yield. In this paper, the generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) method is used to quantify uncertainty of the secondary electron yield. This method is verified by Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of uncertainty for two secondary electron yield parameters is then investigated on the multipacting using gPC method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

ETHOS: An automated framework to generate multi-fidelity constitutive data tables and propagate uncertainties to hydrodynamic simulations

Accurate constitutive data, such as equations of state and plasma transport coefficients, are necessary for reliable hydrodynamic simulations of plasma systems such as fusion targets, planets, and stars. Here, we develop a framework for automatically generating transport-coefficient tables using a parameterized model that incorporates data from both high-fidelity sources (e.g., density functional theory calculations and reference experiments) and lower-fidelity sources (e.g., average-atom and analytic models). The framework incorporates uncertainties from these multi-fidelity sources, generating ensembles of optimally diverse tables that are suitable for uncertainty quantification of hydrodynamic simulations. We illustrate the utility of the framework with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of magnetically launched flyer plates, which are used to measure material properties in pulsed-power experiments. We explore how changes in the uncertainties assigned to the multi-fidelity data sources propagate to changes in simulation outputs and find that our simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties near the melting transition. The presented framework enables computationally efficient uncertainty quantification that readily incorporates new high-fidelity measurements or calculations and identifies plasma regimes where additional data will have high impact.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Global Simulations of Aerosol Particle and Cloud Condensation Nuclei Number, with Implications for Cloud Droplet Formation

A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011-2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of -24% and -35% for particles with dry diameters > 50 and > 120nm, as well as -36% and -34% for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively. However, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (< 0.1%) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3 nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2% (CCN(0.2)) compared to that for N3, maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40% during winter and 20% in summer.

cloud droplets↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cross-scale covariance for material property prediction

A simulation can stand its ground against an experiment only if its prediction uncertainty is known. The unknown accuracy of interatomic potentials (IPs) is a major source of prediction uncertainty, severely limiting the use of large-scale classical atomistic simulations in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. Here we explore covariance between predictions of metal plasticity, from 178 large-scale (~10 8 atoms) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a variety of indicator properties computed at small-scales (≤10 2 atoms). All simulations use the same 178 IPs. In a manner similar to statistical studies in public health, we analyze correlations of strength with indicators, identify the best predictor properties, and build a cross-scale “strength-on-predictors” regression model. This model is then used to estimate regression error over the statistical pool of IPs. Small-scale predictors found to be highly covariant with strength are computed using expensive quantum-accurate calculations and used to predict flow strength, within the statistical error bounds established in our study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling Hyper-Differential Sensitivity Analysis for Ill-Posed Inverse Problems

Inverse problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) play a critical role in model development and calibration. In many applications, there are multiple uncertain parameters in a model that must be estimated. However, high dimensionality of the parameters and computational complexity of the PDE solves make such problems challenging. A common approach is to reduce the dimension by fixing some parameters (which we will call auxiliary parameters) to a best estimate and use techniques from PDE-constrained optimization to estimate the other parameters. In this article, hyper-differential sensitivity analysis (HDSA) is used to assess the sensitivity of the solution of the PDE-constrained optimization problem to changes in the auxiliary parameters. Foundational assumptions for HDSA require satisfaction of the optimality conditions which are not always practically feasible as a result of ill-posedness in the inverse problem. Here we introduce novel theoretical and computational approaches to justify and enable HDSA for ill-posed inverse problems by projecting the sensitivities on likelihood informed subspaces and defining a posteriori updates. Our proposed framework is demonstrated on a nonlinear multiphysics inverse problem motivated by estimation of spatially heterogeneous material properties in the presence of spatially distributed parametric modeling uncertainties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extreme Scale Infrasound Inversion and Prediction for Weather Characterization and Acute Event Detection

Accurate and timely weather predictions are critical to many aspects of society with a profound impact on our economy, general well-being, and national security. In particular, our ability to forecast severe weather systems is necessary to avoid injuries and fatalities, but also important to minimize infrastructure damage and maximize mitigation strategies. The weather community has developed a range of sophisticated numerical models that are executed at various spatial and temporal scales in an attempt to issue global, regional, and local forecasts in pseudo real time. The accuracy however depends on the time period of the forecast, the nonlinearities of the dynamics, and the target spatial resolution. Significant uncertainties plague these predictions including errors in initial conditions, material properties, data, and model approximations. To address these shortcomings, a continuous data collection occurs at an effort level that is even larger than the modeling process. It has been demonstrated that the accuracy of the predictions depends on the quality of the data and is independent to a certain extent on the sophistication of the numerical models. Data assimilation has become one of the more critical steps in the overall weather prediction business and consequently substantial improvements in the quality of the data would have transformational benefits. This paper describes the use of infrasound inversion technology, enabled through exascale computing, that could potentially achieve orders of magnitude improvement in data quality and therefore transform weather predictions with significant impact on many aspects of our society.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗