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DOE OSTI2026

Deep Gaussian process-based cost-aware batch Bayesian optimization for complex materials design campaigns

The accelerating pace and expanding scope of materials discovery demand optimization frameworks that efficiently navigate vast design spaces with complex response surfaces while judiciously allocating limited evaluation resources. We present a cost-aware, batch Bayesian optimization scheme powered by deep Gaussian process (DGP) surrogates and a heterotopic querying strategy. Our DGP surrogate, formed by stacking GP layers, models complex hierarchical relationships among high-dimensional compositional features and captures correlations across multiple target properties, propagating uncertainty through successive layers. We integrate evaluation cost into an upper-confidence-bound acquisition extension, which, together with heterotopic querying, proposes small batches of candidates in parallel, balancing exploration of under-characterized regions with exploitation of high-mean, low-variance predictions across correlated properties. Applied to refractory high-entropy alloys for high-temperature applications, our framework converges to optimal formulations in fewer iterations with cost-aware queries than conventional GP-based BO, highlighting the value of deep, uncertainty-aware, cost-sensitive strategies in materials campaigns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anomalous isotope effect on the optical bandgap in a monolayer transition metal dichalcogenide semiconductor

Isotope effects have received increasing attention in materials science and engineering because altering isotopes directly affects phonons, which can affect both thermal properties and optoelectronic properties of conventional semiconductors. However, how isotopic mass affects the optoelectronic properties in 2D semiconductors remains unclear because of measurement uncertainties resulting from sample heterogeneities. Here, we report an anomalous optical bandgap energy red shift of 13 (±7) milli–electron volts as mass of Mo isotopes is increased in laterally structured 100 MoS 2 - 92 MoS 2 monolayers grown by a two-step chemical vapor deposition that mitigates the effects of heterogeneities. This trend, which is opposite to that observed in conventional semiconductors, is explained by many-body perturbation and time-dependent density functional theories that reveal unusually large exciton binding energy renormalizations exceeding the ground-state renormalization energy due to strong coupling between confined excitons and phonons. The isotope effect on the optical bandgap reported here provides perspective on the important role of exciton-phonon coupling in the physical properties of two-dimensional materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of XCT for Matrix Density Measurement of Particle Fuel Forms

Particle fuel forms generally consist of a dispersion of fuel, such as tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles, within a refractory matrix (e.g., graphite or silicon carbide). The density of matrix materials for particle fuel forms is of interest for modeling fuel form strength and thermal properties and may be specified as a quality control parameter, depending on reactor design. Some of the uncertainty associated with traditional, manual approaches can be eliminated by performing x-ray computed tomography (XCT) on the fuel forms and applying image processing methods to generate a precise count of the number of particles. This also removes the need to include determination of particle count within each individual fuel form during fabrication. Unfortunately, reconstruction artifacts from high-Z uranium-bearing kernels prevent accurate measurement of individual particle volumes using this approach, so the use of mean particle mass and volume are still necessary for computation of average fuel form matrix density. This method of using XCT to count particles in individual fuel form for determination of average matrix density was applied to three archived compacts from the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification (AGR)-1 campaign, four archived compacts with uranium carbide/uranium oxide (UCO) TRISO from the AGR-2 campaign, and three archived UO 2 -TRISO compacts from the AGR-2 campaign. The resulting density values were compared with those previously reported, showing slight changes due to uncertainties in the previously used number of particles in each of these cylindrical, graphite matrix compacts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Assessment of Elastic Modulus vs. Relative Density for Stretch- and Bend-Dominated Lattices

This project was designed to study the possibility of using structural properties of lattices to replicate the material properties of certain hard to manufacture designs and use topology optimization to determine the lattice type and density required to mimic these properties. The integration of additively manufactured lattice structures with topology optimization highlights the need for well characterized mechanical properties and uncertainty analyses to insure these optimized structures respond as predicted. Stereolithographically printed octet and rhombic dodecahedron lattices were manufactured at 10%, 25% and 65% density by volume. As a separate task, yet integrated into this work, finite element analysis (FEA) was used to predict the printed lattice’s mechanical properties, which were then compared to our experimental results. After comparing FEA and experimentallymeasured elastic moduli, it was determined that the FEA provides highly reliable predictions for the modulus of these printed lattice structures. These lattices also exhibited greater tensile stiffness than that of the solid material demonstrating the flexibility that lattices provide to designing parts with designer structural properties. The accurate printing and reliable modeling of these lattices will enable topology optimization of complex parts from well-characterized rhombic dodecahedron and octet lattice structures of varying densities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of multipacting threshold sensitivity to the random distributions of the secondary electron yield parameters

The way multipacting develops, depends strongly on the secondary emission property of the surface material. The knowledge of secondary electron yield is crucial for accurate prediction of the multipacting threshold. Variations in secondary electron yield parameters from experimental measurements create uncertainty, stemming from handling and surface preparation, and these uncertainties significantly affect multipacting threshold predictions. Despite their significance, the previous studies on the multipacting phenomenon did not adequately address the effect of an assumed random distribution of the secondary emission parameters on the multipacting threshold. Therefore, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive statistical study on how the different random distributions of the secondary emission parameters and, as a result, the uncertainty in the secondary electron yield affect multipacting thresholds. We focus on three commonly used distributions, namely uniform, normal, and truncated normal distributions, to define the uncertainty of random inputs. We use the chaos polynomial expansion method to determine how much each of the random parameters contributes to the multipacting threshold uncertainty. Additionally, we calculate Sobol sensitivity indices to evaluate the impact of the individual parameters or groups of parameters on the model outputs and study how different random distributions of these parameters affected the Sobol index results.

physics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Isochronic Evolution and the Radioactive Decay of r-process Nuclei

Abstract We report on the creation and application of a novel decay network that uses the latest data from experiment and evaluation. We use the network to simulate the late-time phase of the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. In this epoch, the bulk of nuclear reactions, such as radiative capture, have ceased, and nuclear decays are the dominant transmutation channels. We find that the decay from short-lived to long-lived species naturally leads to an isochronic evolution in which nuclei with similar half-lives are populated at the same time. We consider random perturbations along each isobaric chain to initial solar-like r -process compositions to demonstrate the isochronic nature of the late-time phase of the r -process. Our analysis shows that detailed knowledge of the final isotopic composition allows for the prediction of late-time evolution with a high degree of confidence despite uncertainties that exist in astrophysical conditions and the nuclear physics properties of the most neutron-rich nuclei. We provide the time-dependent nuclear composition in the Appendix as supplemental material.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interplay between phonon downconversion efficiency, density of states at Fermi energy, and intrinsic energy resolution for microwave kinectic inductance detectors

Microwave Kinetic Inductance detectors (MKIDs) have been recognized as a powerful new tool for single photon detection. These highly multiplexed superconducting devices give timing and energy measurement for every detected photon. However, the full potential of MKID single photon spectroscopy has not been reached , the achieved energy resolution is lower than expected from first principles. Here, we study the efficiency in the phonon downconversion process following the absorption of energetic photons in MKIDs. Assuming previously published material properties, we measure an average downconversion efficiency for three TiN resonators is $\eta$=0.14. We discuss how this efficiency can impact the intrinsic energy resolution of MKID, and how any uncertainty in the unknown density of electron states at the Fermi energy directly affects the efficiency estimations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

BISON Simulated and Experimental Fission Product Release Comparisons from Reradiated AGR-3/4 Compacts During High Temperature Heating Tests

The fuel performance modeling code BISON was used to predict the release of fission products iodine-131 (131I), xenon-133 (133Xe), and krypton-85 (85Kr) from four re-irradiated AGR-3/4 fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during high-temperature isothermal heating tests. The AGR-3/4 fuel compacts were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) as part of the third and fourth series of planned experiments to support the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Program. They were subsequently stored and re-irradiated in the Neutron Radiography (NRAD) reactor for approximately five days and then stored for another five to eight days before being subjected to isothermal heating tests in the Fuel Accident Condition Simulation (FACS furnace) for 200 to 300 hours at temperatures between 1000°C and 1600°C to evaluate fission product release at elevated temperatures. New nuclide-specific fission product source term models for the three nuclides of interest were developed using the reactor multiphysics code Griffin and implemented into BISON to support this work. The new source term models were incorporated into coupled compact- and particle-scale BISON simulations, which predict spatially- and temporally-resolved radionuclide generation, radioactive decay, transport, and release throughout the entire irradiation history, including the initial ATR irradiation, NRAD re-irradiations, FACS heating tests, and intermediate periods spent in storage. The experimentally measured fission product release from the heating tests were compared to modeling release predictions calculated by BISON to evaluate how well the code compares to experimental results. Overall, the experimental measured and BISON predicted comparative release results varied but generally agreed to within 5 particle equivalents. Comparative release results identified general observations to take into consideration to help refine future models and reduce uncertainties associated with both the measurement results and predictive results. This includes developing new uranium oxycarbide (UCO) specific kernel diffusivities for the three isotopes examined to more accurately reflect the material properties of the fuel form. Deriving new diffusivities will aid in producing a more informed BISON model

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian analysis for estimating statistical parameter distributions of elasto-viscoplastic material models

High temperature design methods rely on constitutive models for inelastic deformation and failure typically calibrated against the mean of experimental data without considering the associated scatter. Variability may arise from the experimental data acquisition process, from heat-to-heat material property variations, or both and need to be accurately captured to predict parameter bounds leading to efficient component design. Applying the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to produce statistical models capturing the underlying uncertainty in the experimental data is an area of ongoing research interest. This work varies aspects of the Bayesian MCMC method and explores their effect on the posterior parameter distributions for a uniaxial elasto-viscoplastic damage model using synthetically generated reference data. From our analysis with the uniaxial inelastic model we determine that an informed prior distribution including different types of test conditions results in more accurate posterior parameter distributions. The parameter posterior distributions, however, do not improve when increasing the number of similar experimental data. Additionally, changing the amount of scatter in the data affects the quality of the posterior distributions, especially for the less sensitive model parameters. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity study of the model parameters against the likelihood function prior to the Bayesian analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis help to determine the reliability of the posterior distributions and reduce the dimensionality of the problem by fixing the insensitive parameters. The comprehensive study described in this work demonstrates how to efficiently apply the Bayesian MCMC methodology to capture parameter uncertainties in high temperature inelastic material models. Quantifying these uncertainties in inelastic models will improve high temperature engineering design practices and lead to safer, more effective component designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Text Mining for Process–Structure–Properties Relationships in Metals

With the advent of large language models (LLMs), the vast unstructured text within millions of academic papers is increasingly accessible for materials discovery—although significant challenges remain. While LLMs offer promising few- and zero-shot learning capabilities, particularly valuable in the materials domain where expert annotations are scarce, general-purpose LLMs often fail to address key materials-specific queries without further adaptation. To bridge this gap, fine-tuning LLMs on human-labeled data is essential for effective structured knowledge extraction (Liu in The Importance of Human-Labeled Data in the Era of LLMs, 2023). Here, in this study, we introduce a novel annotation schema designed to extract generic process–structure–properties relationships from scientific literature. We demonstrate the utility of this approach using a dataset of 128 abstracts, with annotations drawn from two distinct domains: high-temperature materials (Domain I) and uncertainty quantification in simulating materials microstructure (Domain II). Initially, we developed a conditional random field (CRF) model based on MatBERT—a domain-specific BERT variant—and evaluated its performance on Domain I. Subsequently, we compared this model with a fine-tuned LLM (GPT-4o from OpenAI) under identical conditions. Our results indicate that fine-tuning LLMs can significantly improve entity extraction performance over the BERT-CRF baseline on Domain I. However, when additional examples from Domain II were incorporated, the performance of the BERT-CRF model became comparable to that of the GPT-4o model. These findings underscore the potential of our schema for structured knowledge extraction and highlight the complementary strengths of both modeling approaches.

Materials science↗

DOE OSTI2022

MatPhase: Material phase prediction for Li-ion Battery Reconstruction using Hierarchical Curriculum Learning

Li-ion Batteries (LIB), one of the most efficient energy storage devices, are used extensively in many industrial applications. These batteries consist of electrodes that are put together with heterogeneous material compositions. Imaging data of these battery electrodes obtained from X-ray tomography can explain the distribution of material constituents and allow reconstructions to study electron transport pathways. Such reconstructions of material constituents help quantify various associated properties of electrodes (e.g., volume-specific surface area, porosity) which determine the performance of batteries. These images often suffer from low image contrast between multiple material constituents, hence making it difficult for humans to distinguish and characterize these constituents through visual inspection. A minor error in detecting distributions of the material constituents can lead to magnified errors in the calculated parameters of material properties (e.g., porosity). We present MatPhase, a novel hierarchical curriculum learning technique to address the complex task of estimating material constituent distribution in battery electrodes. MatPhase comprises three modules: (i) an uncertainty-aware global model trained to yield inferences conditioned upon global knowledge of material distribution, (ii) a local model to capture relatively more fine-grained (local) distributional signals, (iii) an aggregator model to appropriately fuse the local and global effects towards obtaining the final distribution. On average, MatPhase improves prediction up to 8.5% relative to other sophisticated modeling pipelines and state-of-the-arts (SOTA) object detection models employed in the performance comparison.

Tabassum, Anika↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing generative molecular design via uncertainty-guided fine-tuning of variational autoencoders

In recent years, deep generative models have been successfully applied to various molecular design tasks, particularly in the life and materials sciences. One critical challenge for pre-trained generative molecular design (GMD) models is to fine-tune them to be better suited for downstream design tasks that aim at optimizing specific molecular properties. However, redesigning and training an existing effective generative model from scratch for each new design task are impractical. Furthermore, the black-box nature of typical downstream tasks that involve property prediction makes it nontrivial to optimize the generative model in a task-specific manner. In this work, we propose an uncertainty-guided fine-tuning strategy that can effectively enhance a pre-trained variational autoencoder (VAE) for GMD through performance feedback in an active learning setting. The strategy begins by quantifying the model uncertainty of the generative model using an efficient active subspace-based UQ (uncertainty quantification) scheme. Next, the decoder diversity within the characterized model uncertainty class is explored to expand the viable space of molecular generation. The low-dimensionality of the active subspace makes this exploration tractable using a black-box optimization scheme, which in turn enables us to identify and leverage a diverse set of high-performing models to generate enhanced molecules. Empirical results across six target molecular properties using multiple VAE-based generative models demonstrate that our uncertainty-guided fine-tuning strategy consistently leads to improved models that outperform the original pre-trained models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermoelastic properties of tungsten at simultaneous high pressure and temperature

In this work, the compressional ( P ) and shear wave velocities ( S ) and unit cell volumes (densities) of polycrystalline tungsten (W) have been measured simultaneously up to 10.5 GPa and 1073 K using ultrasonic interferometry in conjunction with x-ray diffraction and x-radiography techniques. Thermoelastic properties of W were derived using different methods. We obtained the isothermal bulk modulus K T 0 = 310.3(1.5) GPa, its pressure derivative K ' T 0 = 4.4(3), its temperature derivative at constant pressure ( ∂ K T / ∂ T ) P = – 0.0138 ( 1 ) GPa K – 1 and at constant volume ( ∂ K T / ∂ T ) V = – 0.0050 GPa K – 1 , the thermal expansion α ( 0, T ) = 1.02(27) × 10 –5 + 7.39(3.2) × 10 –9 T (K –1 ), as well as the pressure derivative of thermal expansion ( ∂ α / ∂ P ) T = – 1.44 ( 1 ) × 10 – 7 K – 1 GP a – 1 based on the high-temperature Birch–Murnaghan equation of state (EOS), the Vinet EOS, and thermal pressure approach. Finite strain analysis allowed us to derive the elastic properties and their pressure/temperature derivatives independent of the choice of pressure scale. A least-squares fitting yielded K S 0 = 314.5(2.5) GPa, K S 0 ' = 4.45(9), (∂ K S /∂ T ) P = – 0.0076(6) GPa K –1 , G 0 = 162.4(9) GPa, G 0 ' = 1.8(1), (∂ G /∂ T ) P = – 0.0175(9) GPa K –1 , and α 298 K = 1.23 × 10 – 5 K – 1 . Fitting current data to the Mie–Grüneisen–Debye EOS with derived θ 0 = 383.4 K yielded γ 0 = 1.81 ( 6 ) and q = 0.3 . The thermoelastic parameters obtained from various approaches are consistent with one another and comparable with previous results within uncertainties. Our current study provides a complete and self-consistent dataset for the thermoelastic properties of tungsten at high P – T conditions, which is important to improve the theoretical modeling of these materials under dynamic conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the Response of a Herschel–Bulkley Fluid Due to a Moving Plate

In this paper, we study the boundary-layer flow of a Herschel–Bulkley fluid due to a moving plate; this problem has been experimentally investigated by others, where the fluid was assumed to be Carbopol, which has similar properties to cement. The computational fluid dynamics finite volume method from the open-source toolbox/library OpenFOAM is used on structured quad grids to solve the mass and the linear momentum conservation equations using the solver “overInterDyMFoam” customized with non-Newtonian viscosity libraries. The governing equations are solved numerically by using regularization methods in the context of the overset meshing technique. The results indicate that there is a good comparison between the experimental data and the simulations. The boundary layer thicknesses are predicted within the uncertainties of the measurements. The simulations indicate strong sensitivities to the rheological properties of the fluid.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the Longevity of Hydraulic Power Take-Off Piston Seals in Wave Energy Converters

Wave energy converters (WECs) utilize hydraulic power take-off (PTO) systems. Hydraulic cylinder seals, which are commonly made from thermoplastic or elastomeric polymers, play a vital role in PTO system functionality as they are responsible for containing and isolating high-pressure fluids. However, manufacturers of WECs have identified a significant concern regarding the longevity of hydraulic piston seal wear due to a combination of stressors, such as high pressure, elevated temperature, chemical corrosion, and/or environmental conditions. Seal failure can result in a loss of tightness and fluid leakage, and consequently a reduction in the efficiency of WECs. Seal manufacturers do not typically provide durability data as the materials are not specifically designed for WEC applications, nor do they account for real-world conditions that the materials may be exposed to. Additionally, there is no comparative performance data available between different seal manufacturers, creating uncertainty in hydraulic PTO designs for WECs. This paper reviews the current state of available seal materials for WEC hydraulic PTO systems, seal selection criteria for WEC applications, potential seal degradation mechanisms, and also material properties of the seals, such as density, hardness, tensile strength, and operating temperature. In addition, this paper also examines current evaluation procedures for estimating the durability of WEC PTO seals. Lastly, additional research on estimating the lifespan of piston and rod polymer seals used in hydraulic PTO systems is proposed.

Elen, Muthu↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid physics-based and machine learning tools for materials assessment

In this work, we develop novel physics-based and machine learning computational techniques to predict fundamental properties of metallic systems that affect radiation damage behavior in reactor structural materials. Oftentimes, atomistic predictions of engineering alloys simplify chemical compositions to a single element to reduce computational cost and complexity, introducing large sources of uncertainty and potentially missing important behavior. In addition, engineering alloys such as SS 316 are particularly challenging to simulate with first principles methods because of the additional degrees of freedom introduced by magnetic natures of the constituent elements, and very little data of this type exists within the literature. These novel methods aim to improve the qualitative prediction of radiation damage in engineering alloys by more accurately simulating their compositions, both by accelerating the computations and by developing novel analyses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

General relativistic simulations of collapsing binary neutron star mergers with Monte Carlo neutrino transport

Recent gravitational wave observations of neutron-star-neutron-star and neutron-star-black-hole binaries appear to indicate that massive neutron stars may not be too uncommon in merging systems. These discoveries have led to an increased interest in the simulation of merging compact binaries involving massive stars. In this paper, we present a first set of evolution of massive neutron star binaries using Monte Carlo radiation transport for the evolution of neutrinos. Here, we study a range of systems, from nearly symmetric binaries that collapse to a black hole before forming a disk or ejecting material, to more asymmetric binaries in which tidal disruption of the lower mass star leads to the production of more interesting postmerger remnants. For the latter type of systems, we additionally study the impact of viscosity on the properties of the outflows, and compare our results to two recent simulations of identical binaries performed with the whiskyTHC code. We find agreement on the black hole properties, disk mass, and mass and velocity of the outflows within expected numerical uncertainties, and some minor but noticeable differences in the evolution of the electron fraction when using a subgrid viscosity model, with viscosity playing a more minor role in our simulations. The method used to account for r-process heating in the determination of the outflow properties appears to have a larger impact on our result than those differences between numerical codes. We also use the simulation with the most ejected material to verify that our newly implemented Lagrangian tracers provide a reasonable sampling of the matter outflows as they leave the computational grid. We note that, given the lack of production of hot outflows in these mergers, the main role of neutrinos in these systems is to set the composition of the postmerger remnant. One of the main potential uses of our simulations is, thus, as improved initial conditions for longer evolutions of such remnants.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty

Inverse problems, which aim to infer unknown properties of a system using experimental and observational data, are central to addressing many of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) most critical scientific and engineering challenges. Accurate, computationally efficient, and data-efficient solutions to inverse problems are essential for advancing DOE mission-critical science drivers, including analyzing data from large-scale experimental facilities, optimizing fusion reactor performance, accelerating materials discovery, enhancing geophysical imaging, improving wildfire predictions, and enabling autonomous systems and digital twins. However, these problems are becoming increasingly complex, often involving nonlinear, highdimensional, and interconnected systems and models that span multiple physics and scales, while relying on data with varying quantity, quality, and information content. Compounding these challenges is the uncertainty inherent in DOE-relevant systems, where errors in inputs, noise in data, incompleteness of data, and discrepancies between models and reality constrain the accuracy and precision of solutions. At the same time, the convergence of recent scientific computing trends—scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing—is creating unprecedented opportunities for tackling these challenges. The cross-cutting nature of inverse problems, combined with their growing complexity and rapidly evolving data and algorithmic demands, strongly motivates the formulation of a prioritized research agenda to maximize their capabilities and impact. In response to this need, DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program in the Office of Science convened the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Inverse Problems for Complex Systems Under Uncertainty in June 2025. This workshop brought together experts across disciplines to identify grand challenges and major opportunities in the field. Through collaborative discussions, the workshop defined transformative research directions aimed at addressing the mathematical, statistical, and computational challenges posed by inverse problems under uncertainty. As a result of these efforts, four priority research directions (PRDs) were identified to guide future research and development in this area. These PRDs, summarized below, represent a roadmap for advancing the foundational science and mathematics of inverse problems, enabling robust, scalable, and uncertainty-aware solutions that are critical for DOE applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗