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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Glass Property-Composition Models for Support of Hanford WTP LAW Facility Operation

Current plans for the River Protection Project envision starting to vitrifying low-activity waste (LAW) by 2023 using a Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) approach and subsequently using a full-pretreatment approach. The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) LAW Facility will be operated and controlled using a LAW glass formulation algorithm (GFA), which requires several inputs based on research and development results. LAW glass property-composition models for several product quality and processing properties are key inputs for the LAW GFA. It is envisioned that the preliminary LAW GFA discussed by Kim and Vienna (2012) will be used for commissioning and initial radioactive operations of the WTP LAW Facility under Bechtel National, Inc. using the DFLAW approach. Then, an updated LAW GFA will be developed for implementation by the WTP operating contractor that takes over after WTP LAW Facility commissioning. This report documents the enhanced LAW glass property-composition models developed for use in the updated LAW GFA. The properties for which models were developed include Product Consistency Test (PCT) response, Vapor Hydration Test (VHT) response, viscosity at 1150 °C, electrical conductivity at 1150 °C, melter SO3 tolerance at 1150 °C, and K-3 refractory corrosion at 1208 °C. Table S.1 lists the tables in this report that contain the recommended models for each of these properties. The model types recommended include partial quadratic mixture (PQM) models for viscosity, electrical conductivity, melter SO 3 tolerance and K-3 corrosion, bias corrected PQM model (bcPQM) for PCT, and logistic PQM model for VHT. The fits of model and validation subsets were found to be well predicted by the recommended models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Glass Property-Composition Models for Support of Hanford WTP LAW Facility Operation

Current plans for the River Protection Project envision starting to vitrifying low-activity waste (LAW) by 2023 using a Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) approach and subsequently using a full-pretreatment approach. The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) LAW Facility will be operated and controlled using a LAW glass formulation algorithm (GFA), which requires several inputs based on research and development results. LAW glass property-composition models for several product quality and processing properties are key inputs for the LAW GFA. It is envisioned that the preliminary LAW GFA discussed by Kim and Vienna (2012) will be used for commissioning and initial radioactive operations of the WTP LAW Facility under Bechtel National, Inc. using the DFLAW approach. Then, an updated LAW GFA will be developed for implementation by the WTP operating contractor that takes over after WTP LAW Facility commissioning. This report documents the enhanced LAW glass property-composition models developed for use in the updated LAW GFA. The properties for which models were developed include Product Consistency Test (PCT) response, Vapor Hydration Test (VHT) response, viscosity at 1150 °C, electrical conductivity at 1150 °C, melter SO 3 tolerance at 1150 °C, and K-3 refractory corrosion at 1208 °C. Table S.1 lists the tables in this report that contain the recommended models for each of these properties. The model types recommended include partial quadratic mixture (PQM) models for viscosity, electrical conductivity, melter SO 3 tolerance and K-3 corrosion, bias corrected PQM model (bcPQM) for PCT, and logistic PQM model for VHT. The fits of model and validation subsets were found to be well predicted by the recommended models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Second harmonic generation for estimating state of charge of lithium-ion batteries

This study applied the nonlinear ultrasonic method, second harmonic generation, to precisely estimate the state of charge (SoC) in lithium-ion batteries. The second harmonic of the longitudinal wave is generated on a pouch cell battery at 5 MHz with a through-transmission setup. The relative nonlinear parameter β' is determined by analyzing the amplitudes at the fundamental and second harmonic frequencies. To enhance the nonlinear parameter's measurement accuracy, multiple excitation amplitudes are employed. Two separate charge/discharge tests (four-cycle and eight-cycle) are conducted on the battery at a rate of C/10. The nonlinear parameter is measured periodically during the charge/discharge process, and temperature compensation is applied to the measurement. The correlation curves between the nonlinear parameter and the actual SoC align well for the four-cycle and eight-cycle tests, and a robust linear relationship is observed for both correlation curves. A linear model and a second-order polynomial model are applied to fit the correlation using all data points from both tests. The two models are employed to validate the SoC prediction on a second battery by using a four-cycle test. Furthermore, the results indicate that both models can predict the SoC with an accuracy of approximately 3%, whereas the polynomial model demonstrates smaller errors in the regions near 0% and 100% SoC. Therefore, the nonlinear parameter β', measured through the second harmonic generation, can effectively predict lithium-ion battery SoC with an accuracy of less than 3%.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Readout Techniques for Passive Monitors

This fiscal year (FY) 2023 report on passive temperature sensors covers two main objectives: to demonstrate that the optical dilatometer can successfully process disc shaped silicon carbide (SiC) temperature monitors (TMs), and to demonstrate proof of concept for using the capacitance readout method to read printed melt wires. The SiC objective was successfully met by annealing and analyzing, via optical dilatometry, all eight 3-mm SiC discs provided by the Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF) Idaho State University (ISU) Nanostructured Steels for Enhanced Radiation Tolerance (N SERT) experiment, which was irradiated at Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). Per the ISU N SERT experiment, capsule 1 (KGT 3828 1 and KGT 3828-2) had a design temperature of 300°C +/- 50°C and an exposure of 2 dpa +/- 10%; capsule 2 (KGT 4600 and KGT 4609) had a design temperature of 300°C +/- 50°C and an exposure of 6 dpa +/- 10%; capsule 3 (KGT 4639 C and KGT 4639-D) had a design temperature of 500°C +/- 50°C and an exposure of 6 dpa +/- 10%; and capsule 4 (KGT 3841 3 and KGT 3841 4) had a design temperature of 500°C +/- 50°C and an exposure of 2 dpa +/- 10%. The target exposure rates, in dpa, are the neutron damage for various types of nanostructured steels. All but three SiC TMs (KGT 4600, KGT 4639 D, and KGT 3841 4) revealed averaged peak irradiation temperatures that fell within the design temperature ranges. The three SiC TMs that did not fall within the design temperatures ranges were at least 100°C below that target temperature. Furthermore, SiC TM KGT 3841 C revealed two irradiation regimes: one closer to the 300°C design temperature, and the other closer to the 500°C design temperature. Also, all the SiC TMs’ averaged peak irradiation temperatures came in anywhere between 20°C and 240°C below the irradiation temperatures predicted by the thermal models. This showed the optical dilatometry method to be a reliable and less time intensive process for determining averaged peak irradiation temperatures from passive SiC TMs such as rods and discs. Under the Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) program in FY-23, Boise State University (BSU) proposed to demonstrate proof of concept for using a capacitance readout technique applicable to printed melt wires; however, they were stymied by the complexity of the capacitance readout method. In support of the BSU work, INL developed an additively manufactured (AM) ceramic package for encapsulating the new melt wires. Inks were synthesized at BSU that used new protocols rather than following previously established protocols implemented at INL, and testing of various temperatures was conducted at BSU to evaluate the melting behaviors of the printed melt wires. The result was that the capacitance readout technique showed promise but also created more challenges than originally anticipated. For example, the tin ink synthesized at BSU showed unusual melting behaviors that did nothing to enhance the performance of the final printed melt wire prototype in terms of the capacitance readout method. To make the proof of concept work when applied to the printed melt wires, the ASI program would need to invest further resources and time. Consequently, the program is not planning to continue this proof of concept work in FY-24, based on the progress and findings achieved in FY-23.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Milone eTape Liquid Level Sensor Laboratory Calibration with a Commercial 12.2 cm HS-Flume and 3D Printed 4 cm Micro-HS-Flumes

The NGEE Arctic Rainfall Simulator (NARS) is a variable intensity rainfall simulator (RFS) with a frame design based on the Humphry et al. (2002) RFS and a water delivery system based on the Walnut Gulch (Paige et al., 2004) RFS. The NARS uses an aluminum frame that is fully deconstructable for transportation to field locations and a water system that enables variable rain intensity. Prior to field deployment, H-flume discharge and the corresponding Milone eTape Liquid Level Sensor (eTape) resistance values were measured in the laboratory so that discharge measurements from the NGEE Arctic Rainfall Simulator could be automated. eTape resistance was measured with increasing fluid heights for the full range of the eTape to calculate sensor detection limits and resolution. The eTape was calibrated to both a commercially available 12.2 cm HS-flume and a 3D printed 4 cm Micro-HS-flume. This data package contains two .csv files, one for the eTape calibration and the other for the flume calibrations, and two .stl files to 3D print the 4 cm Micro-HS-Flume design with a 1 cm x 3.6 cm stilling well opening. The .stl files can be opened in most 3D printing or CAD programs/software. Two .kml files of the laboratory location and broader area where testing was conducted are also included in this data package.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prototype Modeling for a Light-Trapping Planar-Cavity Enclosed Particle Solar Receiver

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) systems present a promising avenue for affordable and reliable energy production. Solar receivers are key components that determine the efficiency and longevity of these systems. Particle-based solar receivers have emerged as a compelling alternative to traditional technologies, offering several advantages that address limitations in current CST systems. This is especially true as next-generation CST technologies target applications including electricity generation, thermochemical processes, and industrial process heat, many of which necessitate higher operating temperatures than current commercial molten salt systems. Molten-salt thermal energy storage (TES) systems, commonly used in CSP, face challenges related to freezing and corrosion. Particle-based TES systems, in contrast, do not experience these issues, as particles are stable at high temperatures, exceeding 1000 degrees Celsius. This capability allows for a wider range of applications, including those requiring higher temperatures for industrial processes and efficient electricity generation. A novel innovation in particle-based solar receiver technology is the light-trapping planar cavity receiver (LTPCR) configuration developed by NREL. The LTPCR design consists of small cavity-like structures using opaque planar surfaces, enabling efficient capture and absorption of solar energy. A high incident flux concentration at the cavity aperture is absorbed on the receiver walls, and subsequently transferred to particles on the inside of cavities. The particles flow through the system, forming a fluidized bed inside of the receiver panels, effectively capturing the absorbed solar heat. Air is used as a fluidizing medium in this process to enhance particle heat transfer and mixing. The effectiveness of this design lies in its ability to manage solar flux conditions and ensure high solar-to-thermal receiver efficiency. A 100-kW prototype is currently being tested at the King Saud University in Saudi Arabia to assess the receiver performance. A range of modeling analyses for the optical, thermal, and mechanical effects were conducted to assess the performance of the receiver under on-sun conditions. The solar flux resulting from the KSU heliostat field was modeled using NREL SolTrace software and produced up to 600 kW/m2 at the receiver aperture. The solar flux absorbed on the receiver walls was then used within a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to predict wall temperature distributions along with radiation and convection loss. A two-phase CFD model was developed for the fluidized bed of silica sand inside the receiver panels to predict local wall-to-particle heat transfer coefficients, particle temperature distributions, and outlet temperature of the particles. We have also conducted analyses to understand the thermomechanical behavior of these innovative enclosed light-trapping solar receivers optimized for particle heating. We used finite element analysis (FEA) to predict the receiver's performance using temperature distributions obtained from CFD and based on the resulting stress profiles, evaluated creep-fatigue damage with a goal of achieving a 30-year service life. Analysis showed a significant impact of the particle-to-wall heat transfer coefficients (HTCs) on receiver performance, with higher HTCs resulting in reduced stress and increased lifespan. For instance, when using Inconel 740H, increasing the HTC from 800 W/m2 K to 1400 W/m2 K increased the creep life from 4,000 hours to over 100,000 hours. This highlights the importance of understanding and optimizing heat transfer in the design of high-efficiency receivers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deterministic Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) Model for the EGS Collab Project on the 4850 Level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF)

The EGS Collab is conducting hydraulic fracture stimulation and fluid circulation experiments in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) located in Lead, South Dakota. A total of eight ~60m-long subhorizontal boreholes were drilled from the 4850 Level (~1.5 km below the ground surface) into the crystalline rock of this former mine. Six of these holes are used for geophysical monitoring, one is used for hydraulic fracture stimulation, and the remaining hole was designed as a production borehole that receives water from the injection well via the induced and natural fracture system. The primary goal of creating the discrete fracture network model is to show that these modeling methods are critical for the development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). This includes the prediction of rock behavior during fracturing and during an extended period of water flow between the parallel injection and production boreholes. Understanding the results from the induced fracturing and flow is complicated by the presence of significant natural fractures that interact with the stimulation and/or flow pathways. The delineation and characterization of natural fractures is thus an important part of the project, and therefore a model of the Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) was developed on a deterministic basis. The DFN was populated using observations and interpretations integrated from drift (horizontal passageways that allow access in the underground) fracture mapping, analysis of core recovered from the eight boreholes, borehole televiewer logs and videos, and observations of flow between and within boreholes and in the drift. The natural fracture system is dominated by a pervasive northwest-trending, steeply dipping shear system that is identifiable in the drifts and the core. Hydraulic fracture stimulation, flow/tracer circulation tests, and geophysical monitoring revealed that the behavior of the injected water, and perhaps the growth of induced fractures, has been significantly influenced by the existing fractures identified in the DFN.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aluminum Ultra-conductors for Energy-Efficient Aerospace Busbar Applications (Abstract)

In this project, we will develop aluminum ultra-conductors with graphene additives demonstrating enhanced electrical conductivity at 90 °C compared to electric grade aluminum alloy AA1100 (43% IACS at 90 °C). While ultra-conductivity has been developed in copper and copper alloys, it is yet to be reported extensively in aluminum-based materials. This project will scale initial work done at PNNL on aluminum ultra-conductors using shear-assisted processing and extrusion (ShAPETM), a novel solid phase processing technique. Ultra-conductors are an emerging class of composites, comprised of a metal substrate with small quantities of nanocrystalline additives such as graphene or carbon nanotubes that demonstrate enhanced conductivity at relevant operating temperatures. Aluminum ultra-conductors can improve efficiency and power density while reducing the demand for copper in a wide range of applications, such as power transmission cables and electric motors. Busbars are an important component in aerospace systems that require lightweight and high-current power distribution including both future electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircrafts and current aircraft electrical systems. We will accelerate aluminum ultra-conductor composite formulation development using combinatorial synthesis and testing methods aided by process/microstructure modeling, developed previously at PNNL. Eaton will test the properties of the ShAPE aluminum ultra-conductor feedstock (used to make the busbars) in relevant operating conditions (20 – 90 °C), predict the improvement in busbar performance when manufactured with ultra-conductors over commercial conductors (such as AA1100), and perform technoeconomic analysis to evaluate the potential for commercialization of ShAPE aluminum ultra-conductors. The project is expected to have a budget of $\$375$K, with $\$300$K in federal funding and $\$75$K in-kind cost-share contribution from Eaton over a period of performance of 24 months. Of the $\$300$K of federal funds, $\$140$K is allocated for CRADA activities that generate intellectual property (IP), and the remaining $\$160$K is reserved for modeling, material testing, characterization, travel, and reporting-related activities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint Geophysical and Numerical Insights of the Coupled Thermal‐Hydro‐Mechanical Processes During Heating in Salt

Abstract Salt offers an optimal medium for the permanent isolation of heat‐producing radioactive waste due to its impermeability, high thermal conductivity, and ability to close fractures through creep. A thorough understanding of the thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes, encompassing brine migration, is fundamental for secure radioactive waste disposal within salt formations. At the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), we conducted joint in situ geophysical monitoring experiments during active heating to investigate brine migration near excavations. This experiment incorporated electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) alongside high‐resolution fiber‐optic‐based distributed temperature sensing within a controlled heating experiment. Additionally, discrete element model (DEM) based numerical simulations were conducted to simulate THM processes during heating, providing a more mechanistic understanding of the coupled processes leading to the observed changes in geophysical measurements. During heating, resistivity shifts near the heater were reasonably explained by temperature effects. However, in more distant, cooler regions, the resistivity decrease exceeded predictions based solely on temperature. DEM simulations highlighted brine migration, propelled by pore pressure gradients, as the likely primary factor contributing to the additional resistivity decline beyond temperature effects. The comparison between the predicted ERT responses and observations was much improved when considering the effects of brine migration based on the DEM simulations. These geophysical and simulation findings shed light on brine migration in response to salt heating, enhancing our understanding of the coupled THM processes in salt for safe radioactive waste disposal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Current Observer Based Predictive Decoupled Power Control Grid-Interactive Inverter

This paper presents a sensor-less current model predictive control (MPC) scheme via a full state observer based current estimator. The grid interactive inverters’ control schemes require current and voltage sensors. Elimination of current sensor enhances the inverter reliability. This paper leverages the inherent characteristics of MPC towards robust current sensor-less grid interactive inverter with LC filter. The observer for inductor current is developed based on the existing capacitor voltage measurement. The estimator dynamic state-space matrices are then obtained through reconstruction of the inverter model with the capacitor voltage and inductor current being the state variables. The controller objectives are to regulate active and reactive power in a decoupled manner. The theoretical expectation, controller performance, and accuracy of the current estimation are verified by conducting a real-time simulation via Typhoon HIL.

Zhang, Zhen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global fire modelling and control attributions based on the ensemble machine learning and satellite observations

Contemporary fire dynamics is one of the most complex and least understood land surface phenomena. Global fire controls related to climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic activity are usually intertwined, and difficult to disentangle in a quantitative way. Here, we leveraged an ensemble of five machine learning (ML) models and multiple satellite-based observations to conduct global fire modeling for three fire metrics (burned area, fire number, and fire size), and quantified driving mechanisms underlying annual fire changes in a spatially resolved manner for the period 2003–2019. Ensemble learning is a meta-approach that combines multiple ML predictions to improve accuracy, robustness, and generalization performance. We found that the optimized ensemble ML well reproduced annual dynamics of global burned area (R 2 = 0.90, P < 0.001), total fire numbers (R 2 = 0.86, P < 0.001), and averaged fire size (R 2 = 0.70, P < 0.001). Additionally, the ensemble ML captured key spatial patterns of multi-year mean magnitudes, annual variabilities, anomalies, and trends for different fire metrics. Our ML-based fire attributions further highlighted the dominant role of enhanced anthropogenic activity in reducing global burned area (–1.9 Mha/yr, P < 0.01), followed by climate control (–1.3 Mha/yr, P < 0.01) and insignificant positive vegetation control (0.4 Mha/yr, P = 0.60). Spatially, climate dominated a much larger burned area (53.7%) than human (23.4%) or vegetation control (22.9%); however, the counteracting effects from regional wetting and drying trends weakened the net climate impacts on global burned area. The fire number and fire size exhibited similar spatial control patterns with burned area; globally, however, fire number tended to be more affected by climate while fire size more influenced by human activities. Overall, our study confirmed the feasibility and efficiency of ensemble ML in global fire modeling and subsequent control attributions, providing a better understanding of contemporary fire regimes and contributing to robust fire projections in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series: Supporting Data

This dataset consists of soil temperature time series that were used to estimate soil thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty trough the probabilistic modelling approach developed and presented in the article named "Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series" and published in Earth Surface Dynamics. There are two compressed (.zip) files that contains synthetic (Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip) and field (Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip) data. There is one MATLAB file that requires MATLAB to execute but any text editor can open it. The Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip file includes 5 comma-delimited data files (.csv) each of which contains soil temperature time series generated through forward modeling (i.e., heat-conduction process in a heterogeneous medium using an explicit finite difference method) to mimic various types of temperature gradients, trend and fluctuations. These synthetic soil temperatures were used to investigate the impact of different environmental conditions on the uncertainty of thermal diffusivity estimates. The Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip file contains 28 comma-delimited data files (.csv) out of which (a) 27 files includes soil temperature time series recorded from 27 temperature probes located in a site along Teller Road about 40 km northwest of Nome, Alaska (64.72°N, 165.94°W), (b) one includes the name and coordinates of the 27 probes. These field soil temperatures were used to infer soil thermal diffusivity at numerous locations and depths in a discontinuous permafrost environment, and to evaluate the links between the estimated soil thermal diffusivity values and soil physical properties. The comma-delimited data files (.csv) of the synthetic and field soil temperature time series includes date and time (UTC) in the first column and soil temperature from 5 cm below the ground surface to 1.05 m depth (with 5 or 10 cm spacing between sensors) in the other columns. The measurements were acquired every 15 minutes. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2023 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Refining the two-band model for highly compensated semimetals using thermoelectric coefficients

In studying compensated semimetals, the two-band model has proven extremely useful in capturing electrical conductivity under magnetic field, as a function of density and mobility of electronlike and holelike carriers. However, it rarely offers practical insight into magnetothermoelectric properties. Here, in this work, we report the field dependence of thermoelectric (TE) coefficients in a highly compensated semimetal NbSb 2 , where we find the Seebeck (𝑆 𝑥⁢𝑥 ) and Nernst (𝑆 𝑥⁢𝑦 ) coefficients increase quadratically and linearly with applied magnetic field, respectively. Such field dependence was predicted in previous work that studied a system of two parabolic bands, within semiclassical Boltzmann transport theory when the following two conditions are simultaneously met: 𝜔 𝑐 ⁢𝜏 ≫ 1 and tan ⁡𝜃 𝐻 ≪ 1, where 𝜔 𝑐 and 𝜏 refer to the cyclotron frequency and relaxation time, respectively, and 𝜃 𝐻 is the Hall angle. Under these conditions, we find the field dependence of the TE coefficients directly provides a relation between the electronlike (𝑛 𝑒 ) and holelike (𝑛 ℎ ) carrier densities, which in turn can be used to refine two-band model fitting. With this, we find the compensation factor ($\frac{|Δ⁢𝑛|}{𝑛_{𝑒}}$, where Δ⁢𝑛 = 𝑛 𝑒 −𝑛 ℎ ) of NbSb 2 is two orders of magnitude smaller than what was found in unrestricted fitting, resulting in a larger saturation-field scale for magnetoresistance. Within the same framework of the semiclassical theory, we also deduce that the thermoelectric Hall angle tan⁡ 𝜃 𝛾 = $\frac{𝑆_{𝑥⁢𝑦}}{𝑆_{𝑥⁢𝑥}}$ can be expressed as ($\frac{Δ⁢𝑛}{𝑛_{𝑒}}$ ×𝜔 𝑐 ⁢𝜏) −1 , which serves as a parameter to predict the degree of compensation. Our findings offer crucial insights into identifying empirical conditions for field-induced enhancement of TE performance and into engineering-efficient thermoelectric devices based on semimetallic materials.

electrical conductivity↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extension of Large Fire Emissions From Summer to Autumn and Its Drivers in the Western US

Abstract Burned areas in the western US have increased ten‐fold since 1980s, which are attributable to multiple factors, including increasing heat, changing precipitation patterns, and extended drought. To better understand how these factors contribute to large fire emissions (gridded monthly fire emissions >95th percentile of all the fire emissions in the western US; 0.009 Gg/month), we build a machine learning model to predict fire emissions (PM 2.5 ) over the western US at 0.25° resolution, interpreted using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). From the predictor contributions derived from XAI, we conduct k‐means clustering analysis to identify four clusters of predictor variables representing different drivers of large fire emissions. The four clusters feature the contributions of fuel load (Cluster 1) and different levels of dryness (Cluster 2–4), controlled by fuel moisture, drought condition, and fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns featuring high temperature, high pressure, and low relative humidity. In the past two decades, large fire emissions peak in summer. However, large fire emissions increased significantly in September and October in 2010–2020 relative to 2000–2009, extending the peak large fire emissions from summer to autumn. The larger enhancements of large fire emissions during autumn compared to summer are contributed by decreased fuel moisture, along with more frequent concurrent fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns and drought. These results highlight fuel drying as a common driver supported by multiple drivers, such as warmer temperature and more frequent synoptic patterns favorable for fires, in increasing the autumn risk of large fire emissions across the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sandia's Research in Support of COVID-19 Pandemic Response: Computing and Information Sciences

This report summarizes the goals and findings of eight research projects conducted under the Computing and Information Sciences (CIS) Research Foundation and related to the COVID- 19 pandemic. The projects were all formulated in response to Sandia's call for proposals for rapid-response research with the potential to have a positive impact on the global health emergency. Six of the projects in the CIS portfolio focused on modeling various facets of disease spread, resource requirements, testing programs, and economic impact. The two remaining projects examined the use of web-crawlers and text analytics to allow rapid identification of articles relevant to specific technical questions, and categorization of the reliability of content. The portfolio has collectively produced methods and findings that are being applied by a range of state, regional, and national entities to support enhanced understanding and prediction of the pandemic's spread and its impacts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictive Inverse Model for Advective Heat Transfer in a Short–Circuited Fracture: Dimensional Analysis, Machine Learning, and Field Demonstration

Identifying fluid flow maldistribution in planar geometries is a well–established problem in subsurface science/engineering. Of particular importance to the thermal performance of enhanced (or “engineered”) geothermal systems is identifying the existence of nonuniform (i.e., heterogeneous) permeability and subsequently predicting advective heat transfer. Here, machine learning via a genetic algorithm (GA) identifies the spatial distribution of an unknown permeability field in a two–dimensional Hele–Shaw geometry (i.e., parallel plates). The inverse problem is solved by minimizing the L2 norm between simulated residence time distribution (RTD) and measurements of an inert tracer breakthrough curve (BTC) (C–Dot nanoparticle). Principal component analysis (PCA) of spatially correlated permeability fields enabled reduction of the parameter space by more than a factor of 10 and restricted the inverse search to reservoir–scale permeability variations. Thermal experiments and tracer tests conducted at the mesoscale Altona Field Laboratory (AFL) demonstrate that the method accurately predicts the effects of extreme flow channeling on heat transfer in a single bedding–plane rock fracture. However, this is only true when the permeability distributions provide adequate matches to both tracer RTD and frictional pressure loss. Without good agreement to frictional pressure loss, it is still possible to match a simulated RTD to measurements, but subsequent predictions of heat transfer are grossly inaccurate. Here, the results of this study suggest that it is possible to anticipate the thermal effects of flow maldistribution, but only if both simulated RTDs and frictional pressure loss between fluid inlets and outlets are in good agreement with measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Short-Range Weather Forecasts through Temporal Variation Encoding: A Multiperiod Embedding Approach

Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as promising approaches to improve regional weather forecast accuracy and reliability through data-driven methods. We propose a novel ML-based weather forecasting model, the Multiperiod Embed Net (MPENet). A key distinguishing feature of MPENet is its explicit utilization of the inherent cyclic nature in weather dynamics, unlike the autoregressive strategies commonly used in other ML weather forecasting approaches. Critical cyclic structures are identified via Fourier analyses of dynamic time series. Cyclicity in the convolutional representation is achieved by transforming one-dimensional time series of meteorological variables into two-dimensional tensors based on identified periods. This approach enables the model to leverage intrinsic weather patterns, enhancing regional forecast performance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of MPENet, we conduct a comparative analysis with Nvidia’s FourCastNet. Both models are trained on High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data from 2015 to 2022, over a 192 km × 192 km region in Tennessee. The comparisons are performed locally at two specific locations known to have different weather dynamics due to orographic effects: Crossville, on the relatively flat Cumberland Plateau with fewer topographic airflow disruptions, and Oak Ridge, in the ridge-and-valley region, where airflow is heavily influenced by surrounding valleys and mountains. Our results indicate that FourCastNet achieves strong accuracy at very short lead times, while MPENet maintains competitive skill and shows advantages in capturing temporal evolution over longer periods. Cross-correlation analyses of MPENet and FourCastNet predictions with the HRRR data suggest that encoding critical cyclicity into the network architecture leads to improvements in the forecasting skill.

Artificial intelligence↗