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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Novel artificial neural network model for instantaneous power losses and operational efficiency mapping of MW-scale vanadium redox flow battery for improved technoeconomic analysis

A novel data-driven, machine-learning-based method for modeling the instantaneous power losses of a distribution-sited 2 MW/8MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), a grid-scale electrochemical storage technology, is introduced and compared against benchmark empirical modeling approaches, including symmetric and asymmetric models, as well as a recent convex hull modeling approach. The novel loss modeling method introduces several advantages over the benchmark models and over simplistic efficiency estimates, the most significant of which is that the model can accurately reflect the stepwise and non-linear parasitic losses associated with the duty cycles of mechanical auxiliary systems like pump motor drives and blower fans. Residuals of the models are compared; the proposed data driven model features significantly improved accuracy over the benchmark models. The model's coefficient of determination is also improved relative to that of the benchmark models. Furthermore, a novel method for visualization of operational efficiency of the grid-scale storage technology is introduced. To demonstrate the benefits of the novel data-driven method for modeling the VRFB, the benchmark models and the proposed models are embedded into an Open DSS distribution network model to study two applications of the grid-scale electrical storage system: load leveling for grid support and energy arbitrage. This article demonstrates that the accuracy of the instantaneous power loss model significantly impacts the understanding of the state of charge of the VRFB. In turn, the accuracy of the efficiency modeling of the VRFB impacts the understanding of the potential economic value and technical benefits to the distribution network operators. In conclusion, the presented power loss modeling approach is, therefore, highly relevant for utility-stakeholders, battery asset owners, system engineers, system designers, and financial planners interested in evaluating or optimizing the operation of grid-scale VRFBs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles

Abstract. This work assesses a recently produced 21-member climate model large ensemble (LE) based on the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SM2). The ensemble spans the historical era (1850 to 2014) and 21st century (2015 to 2100), using the SSP370 pathway, allowing for an evaluation of the model's forced response. A companion 500-year preindustrial control simulation is used to initialize the ensemble and estimate drift. Characteristics of the LE are documented and compared against other recently produced ensembles using the E3SM version 1 (E3SM1) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) versions 1 and 2. Simulation drift is found to be smaller, and model agreement with observations is higher in versions 2 of E3SM and CESM versus their version 1 counterparts. Shortcomings in E3SM2 include a lack of warming from the mid to late 20th century, likely due to excessive cooling influence of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, an issue also evident in E3SM1. Associated impacts on the water cycle and energy budgets are also identified. Considerable model dependence in the response to both aerosols and greenhouse gases is documented and E3SM2's sensitivity to variable prescribed biomass burning emissions is demonstrated. Various E3SM2 and CESM2 model benchmarks are found to be on par with the highest-performing recent generation of climate models, establishing the E3SM2 LE as an important resource for estimating climate variability and responses, though with various caveats as discussed herein. As an illustration of the usefulness of LEs in estimating the potential influence of internal variability, the observed CERES-era trend in net top-of-atmosphere flux is compared to simulated trends and found to be much larger than the forced response in all LEs, with only a few members exhibiting trends as large as observed, thus motivating further study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Computers for real time flight simulation: A market survey

An extensive computer market survey was made to determine those available systems suitable for current and future flight simulation studies at Ames Research Center. The primary requirement is for the computation of relatively high frequency content (5 Hz) math models representing powered lift flight vehicles. The Rotor Systems Research Aircraft (RSRA) was used as a benchmark vehicle for computation comparison studies. The general nature of helicopter simulations and a description of the benchmark model are presented, and some of the sources of simulation difficulties are examined. A description of various applicable computer architectures is presented, along with detailed discussions of leading candidate systems and comparisons between them.

Bekey, G. A.↗

Bayesian estimation of cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation for accurate prediction of neutronic characteristics

In some experiments, there might be a correlation of experimental errors such as an error caused by fabrication. The correlation of calculation errors also might exist among analyses of experiments. In the present study, considering these correlations, the cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation are adjusted for the accurate prediction of neutronic characteristics. The adjustment method is derived based on Bayesian theory. The 'a posteriori' distributions of cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation are obtained by the derivation. The case study is performed by using the benchmarks of light-water moderated experiments reported in ICSBEP. The error from fuel rod fabrication and measurement are included in the experiment error, and the error from the simplification of the benchmark model is included in the calculation error. Since these errors have a positive correlation among the benchmarks, the prediction accuracy is expected to be improved by considering these correlations. For the sensitivity analysis of the correlation among benchmarks, the correlation coefficient of experiment error and that of calculation error is assumed from 0.0 to 0.9. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the multiplication factor can be improved by increasing the correlation coefficient of experiment error and that of calculation error. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Godiva IV Simulated Radiation Field Characterization and Variance Reduction

Godiva IV is a system comprised of highly enriched uranium alloyed with molybdenum in the form of fuel plate rings. The reactor, along with its predecessors, was designed with the unique ability to satisfy interests in the super-prompt-critical reactor operation space. Originally, the reactor was part of the Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility (LACEF) at Technical Area-18 (TA-18). The radiation field around Godiva at this facility was well characterized and understood. As a fast neutron system, the neutron spectrum in and around Godiva was close to a Watt Fission spectrum. The Kiva where Godiva IV was located at LACEF was made of thin, sheet metal walls which did not contribute significantly to the neutron spectrum. Following the transition of LACEF to the National Critical Experiments and Research Center (NCERC) in Nevada, Godiva-IV was moved from TA-18 to the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Part of this move brought renewed interest in radiation field characterization. The new facility introduced significant changes to the environment surrounding Godiva, and preliminary foil irradiation results suggested that the room contribution to the neutron spectrum was significant. Unlike at TA-18, a large thermal neutron signature was added to the fast spectrum from Godiva due to significant room return. A primary goal due to the additional complexity that the room return adds to the Godiva IV radiation emission spectrum was the development of an efficient Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) calculation capable of characterizing the neutron spectrum anywhere in the room around Godiva. A campaign of activation foil irradiations and analysis were completed to support the validation of the MCNP model. The modeling of these foils in MCNP can be easily done with a standard volumetric neutron flux tally. However, given the multitude of locations and reaction rates to be modeled, further steps must be taken to increase the efficiency of these calculations in MCNP. During this study, a benchmark model currently under development for Godiva IV was used. A qualitative assessment of the thermal neutron contributors was performed using spatial neutron distribution plots. Additional detail was added to the model based on the qualitative results showing the thermal spectrum’s large sensitivity to hydrogenous material. Neutron energy spectra was evaluated at discrete locations in the room around Godiva to quantify the relative contribution of various components. It was discovered that the concrete walls are the largest contributor to the thermal signature, with minor contributions from plastic components surrounding Godiva. Following these results, two different variance reduction techniques were implemented to improve the problem efficiency in these calculations. In the first approach, an F5 point detector tally was implemented in the standard Godiva IV criticality problem. The second approach involved a weight-window generator implementation with an F5 point detector tally in a fixed source problem. The weight window implementation reduced the runtime from 42739.55 minutes to 1803.34 minutes (computer time), compared to the F5 KCODE implementation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Model-independent search for pair production of new bosons decaying into muons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The results of a model-independent search for the pair production of new bosons within a mass range of 0.21 < m < 60 GeV, are presented. This study utilizes events with a four-muon final state. We use two data sets, comprising 41.5 fb −1 and 59.7 fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, recorded in 2017 and 2018 by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. The study of the 2018 data set includes a search for displaced signatures of a new boson within the proper decay length range of 0 < cτ < 100 mm. Our results are combined with a previous CMS result, based on 35.9 fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected in 2016. No significant deviation from the expected background is observed. Results are presented in terms of a model-independent upper limit on the product of cross section, branching fraction, and acceptance. The findings are interpreted across various benchmark models, such as an axion-like particle model, a vector portal model, the next-to-minimal supersymmetric standard model, and a dark supersymmetric scenario, including those predicting a non-negligible proper decay length of the new boson. In all considered scenarios, substantial portions of the parameter space are excluded, expanding upon prior results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Spatial Correlations of the Poisson Model for Radiation Transport

Characterizing the relationship between bulk physical properties and mixing in randomly heterogeneous media is a central challenge across many areas of science and engineering. A benchmark model for such studies is the Poisson model, a random tessellation of space by a Poisson process of hyperplanes. In radiation transport studies, the lack of exact expressions for the Poisson model’s spatial multipoint functions has led to approximate methods being used, introducing unquantified sources of error. Here, we recently introduced an exact solution for the Poisson model’s multipoint functions and closely related conditional probability functions (CPFs), providing a new opportunity to understand and reduce these sources of error. In this paper, we enable a more rigorous investigation of radiation transport in stochastic media by applying the recently introduced exact solution for the Poisson model’s CPFs. This paper consists of three main contributions. First, we introduce a unified framework for CPFs of the Poisson model, encompassing the recently introduced exact CPFs as well as the previously introduced atomic mix, nearest-neighbor, and combination CPFs. This framework also includes existing pruning techniques for the approximate CPFs, such as angular exclusion, as well as a novel form of angular exclusion suitable for the exact CPFs. Second, we use the exact CPFs to characterize the spatial regions where each approximate three-point CPF is most accurate, thereby explaining the observed hierarchy of accuracy among the approximate models. Finally, we evaluate material transmittance, reflectance, and flux in a three-dimensional test problem using conditional point sampling, demonstrating the relationship between CPF accuracy and transport simulation accuracy.

Poisson model↗

Using Machine Learning to Understand Electric and Hybrid Vehicles Ownership in Burdened and Nonburdened Communities

Transitioning to electric and hybrid vehicles (EHVs) for all communities is a pivotal step toward sustainable transportation and environmental conservation. This paper aims to understand the adoption of EHVs, focusing on burdened communities (BCs) in the United States. The EHV ownership-based analysis combines two datasets—behavioral data from the Puget Sound Regional Travel Survey integrated with BCs (Justice40) data covering transportation insecurity, environmental burden, social vulnerability, health vulnerability, and climate and disaster risk burden. After creating this unique database, descriptive analysis and modeling are used to analyze the data and predict EHV ownership in the future. Specifically, we use a new method that combines particle swarm optimization (PSO) with a stacking model named PSO-Stacking, which incorporates heterogeneous base learners of machine learning and deep learning. PSO applies a customized objective function to select the optimal hyperparameters for heterogeneous learners within the stacking model, effectively addressing challenges such as multicollinearity, data imbalance, nonlinearity, and overfitting. The proposed solution covers more accurate results than standard benchmark models for EHV ownership in BCs and non-BCs. In addition, the results of the PSO-Stacking method are explained using the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations technique. Results show a negative correlation between the BCs indicators, that is, higher transportation insecurity associated with lower EHV ownership. Furthermore, BCs have higher future climate risk scores, diesel particulate matter levels, and PM2.5 in the air than non-BCs because of higher conventional vehicle ownership. These communities are at higher risk and can benefit from electrification, EV infrastructure, and EV policies to address environmental challenges.

Aslam, Zeeshan [ORNL]↗

Implementation and Validation of a Generalized Actuator Disk Parameterization for Wind Turbine Simulations Within the FastEddy Model

ABSTRACT Fast and accurate large‐eddy simulation (LES) of the atmospheric boundary layer plays a crucial role in advancing wind energy research. Long‐duration wind farm studies at turbine‐resolving scales have become increasingly important to understand the intricate interactions between large wind farms and the atmospheric boundary layer. However, the prohibitive computational cost of these turbulence‐ and turbine‐resolving simulations has precluded such modeling to be exercised on a regular basis. To that end, we implement and validate the generalized actuator disk (GAD) model in the computationally efficient, graphics processing unit (GPU)–resident, LES model FastEddy. We perform single‐turbine simulations under three atmospheric stabilities (neutral, unstable, and stable) and compare them against observations from the Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWiFT) facility and other LES codes from the recent Wakebench turbine wake model benchmark. Our idealized LES results agree well with observed wake velocity deficit and downstream recovery across stability regimes. Turbine response in terms of rotational speed, generated power, torque, and thrust coefficient are well predicted across stability regimes and are consistent with the LES results from the benchmark. The FastEddy simulations are found to be at least two orders of magnitude more efficient than the traditional CPU‐based LES models, opening the door for realistic LES simulations of full wind plants as a viable standard practice.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Regime-Switching Spatio-Temporal GARCH Method for Short-Term Wind Forecasting

The growth of wind energy poses challenges to the integration of wind energy into the power grid. Within a wind farm, the conditions of local wind exhibit sizeable variations in very short term period and temporal wind speed patterns vary from turbine to turbine. Hence, short-term wind forecasting has been adopted to assist power system operations. In this work, we propose a wind plant-level short term wind speed and power forecasting methodology considering turbine contributions. The proposed model utilizes spatio-temporal dependencies and nonstationarity to accommodate the characteristics of wind farm data by using a novel regime-switching spatiotemporal generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (RS-stGARCH) model. Case studies based on 2 years of data from a wind farm shows that the proposed RS-stGARCH method outperforms benchmark models by up to 21.10% for wind speed forecasting and up to 58.62% for the wind power forecasting.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make “Functional Types” more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet, Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of "Plant Functional Types" (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, that is, to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. Here we review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages ("Lineage Functional Types") will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reproducible benchmark for the SNAP 8 experimental reactor at operating conditions

This work presents fully reproducible multiphysics benchmark models of the Systems for Nuclear Auxiliary Power (SNAP) 8 Experimental Reactor at operating conditions with coolant flow. Wet experiment (with coolant, at power) validation benchmarks are presented using both deterministic (Serpent-Griffin) and Monte-Carlo (OpenMC-Cardinal) multiphysics frameworks coupled with thermal-hydraulic solvers in MOOSE. Reactivity coefficient measurements including fuel temperature, isothermal temperature, and power coefficients show good agreement with experiments, with discrepancies within experimental uncertainty. Reactivity worth experiments for coolant, samarium, and xenon poisoning are reproduced with differences under 200 pcm. Comparison between Serpent-Griffin and OpenMC-Cardinal frameworks reveal multiphysics coupling introduces positive reactivity effects (100-200 pcm) compared to uniform temperature and density fields at nominal operating conditions. Comparison between Serpent-Griffin and reference Serpent solution shows that power distributions maintain consistent radial and axial peaking behavior. All models, assumptions, thermophysical and thermomechanical properties, and material definitions are thoroughly documented with cited references; model inputs and model generating scripts are stored in the snapReactors GitHub repository.

SNAP↗

Direct Estimation of Parameters in ODE Models Using WENDy: Weak-Form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics

Abstract We introduce the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method for estimating model parameters for non-linear systems of ODEs. Without relying on any numerical differential equation solvers, WENDy computes accurate estimates and is robust to large (biologically relevant) levels of measurement noise. For low dimensional systems with modest amounts of data, WENDy is competitive with conventional forward solver-based nonlinear least squares methods in terms of speed and accuracy. For both higher dimensional systems and stiff systems, WENDy is typically both faster (often by orders of magnitude) and more accurate than forward solver-based approaches. The core mathematical idea involves an efficient conversion of the strong form representation of a model to its weak form, and then solving a regression problem to perform parameter inference. The core statistical idea rests on the Errors-In-Variables framework, which necessitates the use of the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Further improvements are obtained by using orthonormal test functions, created from a set of $$C^{\infty }$$ C ∞ bump functions of varying support sizes.We demonstrate the high robustness and computational efficiency by applying WENDy to estimate parameters in some common models from population biology, neuroscience, and biochemistry, including logistic growth, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Hindmarsh-Rose, and a Protein Transduction Benchmark model. Software and code for reproducing the examples is available at https://github.com/MathBioCU/WENDy .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Matrix-Free High-Performance Saddle-Point Solvers for High-Order Problems in \(\boldsymbol{H}(\operatorname{\textbf{div}})\)

Here, this work describes the development of matrix-free GPU-accelerated solvers for high-order finite element problems in H(div). The solvers are applicable to grad-div and Darcy problems in saddle-point formulation, and have applications in radiation diffusion and porous media flow problems, among others. Using the interpolation–histopolation basis, efficient matrix-free preconditioners can be constructed for the (1, 1)-block and Schur complement of the block system. With these approximations, block-preconditioned MINRES converges in a number of iterations that is independent of the mesh size and polynomial degree. The approximate Schur complement takes the form of an M-matrix graph Laplacian and therefore can be well-preconditioned by highly scalable algebraic multigrid methods. High-performance GPU-accelerated algorithms for all components of the solution algorithm are developed, discussed, and benchmarked. Numerical results are presented on a number of challenging test cases, including the “crooked pipe” grad-div problem, the SPE10 reservoir modeling benchmark problem, and a nonlinear radiation diffusion test case.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cycle-by-cycle Delay Estimation at Signalized Intersections by using Machine Learning and Simulated Video Detection Data

Accurate estimation of delay is crucial for efficient traffic signal operations. Estimation of delay in the real-time manner using traditional loop detectors requires advanced detectors (in addition to stop-bar detection). In cases when this detection layout is not in place, delay estimates are approximated with a lower accuracy. Video detection is one of the most frequently deployed detection systems at signalized intersections in recent years. In most cases video detection operates in the same way as traditional inductive loops. However, when coupled with computer vision algorithms, video detection systems could be used to retrieve additional information (e.g., vehicular arrivals and departures) that cannot be taken out from the conventional systems (e.g., long stop-bar loop detectors). Although present for several decades, video detection data were not frequently examined for delay estimation purposes. In this study, we proposed a novel delay estimation model which can be developed with only data from stop-bar video detectors. Relevant data were collected from a simulation model of 11 signalized intersections at downtown Chattanooga, TN and processed to create needed inputs for model development. With the use of multigene genetic programming the authors developed a delay model that outperforms accuracy of multi regression model. Furthermore, authors evaluated the developed model by comparison with the other benchmark delay models, such as HCM and approach delay model. It was found that the developed MGGP delay model outperforms benchmark models for a wide range of traffic and signal operation conditions.

Erdagi, Ismet Goksad↗

Research on computer systems benchmarking

This grant addresses the topic of research on computer systems benchmarking and is more generally concerned with performance issues in computer systems. This report reviews work in those areas during the period of NASA support under this grant. The bulk of the work performed concerned benchmarking and analysis of CPUs, compilers, caches, and benchmark programs. The first part of this work concerned the issue of benchmark performance prediction. A new approach to benchmarking and machine characterization was reported, using a machine characterizer that measures the performance of a given system in terms of a Fortran abstract machine. Another report focused on analyzing compiler performance. The performance impact of optimization in the context of our methodology for CPU performance characterization was based on the abstract machine model. Benchmark programs are analyzed in another paper. A machine-independent model of program execution was developed to characterize both machine performance and program execution. By merging these machine and program characterizations, execution time can be estimated for arbitrary machine/program combinations. The work was continued into the domain of parallel and vector machines, including the issue of caches in vector processors and multiprocessors. All of the afore-mentioned accomplishments are more specifically summarized in this report, as well as those smaller in magnitude supported by this grant.

Smith, Alan Jay↗

The Dark World: A Tale of WASP-43b in Reflected Light with HST WFC3/UVIS

Optical reflected light eclipse observations provide a direct probe of exoplanet scattering properties, such as from aerosols. We present here the photometric reflected light observations of WASP-43b using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) WFC3/UVIS instrument with the F350LP filter (346–822 nm) encompassing the entire optical band. This is the first reflected light photometric eclipse using UVIS in scanning mode; as such, we further detail our scanning extraction and analysis pipeline Arctor. Our HST WFC3/UVIS eclipse light curve for WASP-43b derived a 3σ upper limit of 67 ppm on the eclipse depth, which implies that WASP-43b has a very dark dayside atmosphere. With our atmospheric modeling campaign, we compared our reflected light constraints with predictions from global circulation and cloud models benchmarked with HST and Spitzer observations of WASP-43b. We infer that we do not detect clouds on the dayside within the pressure levels probed by HST WFC3/UVIS with the F350LP filter (P > 1 bar). This is consistent with the general circulation model predictions based on previous WASP-43b observations. Dayside emission spectroscopy results from WASP-43b with HST and Spitzer observations are likely to not be significantly affected by contributions from cloud particles.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into different pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, $t\overline{t}$, and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and ττ) are included in this kind of combination for the first time. A simplified model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confidence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗