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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

High-Fidelity Building Emulator for Integrated Comfort and Energy Analysis using EnergyPlus and Radiance

The growing need for smart, energy-efficient, and occupant-centric buildings has created a demand for advanced control systems that can optimize building operations to balance energy savings, demand flexibility, and comfort. However, current building energy simulation tools, such as EnergyPlus, have limitations that hinder the development and evaluation of these complex control systems. To address this challenge, we introduce a high-fidelity building emulator that dynamically couples EnergyPlus with Radiance for enhanced daylight modeling. The introduced workflow allows researchers and practitioners to rapidly develop and evaluate innovative control solutions. An example study looking at a south-facing office zone revealed up to 67% deviation in predicted light levels, which can significantly impact building assessment.

Yu, Tammie↗

Building Operation Model (Morpheus) for Dallas Fort Worth Airport (CRADA CRD-19-16301 Final Report)

The primary objective of this project was to leverage digital twin technology to enhance the design and operation of DFW Airport terminals and their associated energy systems. To achieve this, Morpheus, a building digital twin, was developed to guide improvements in airport operations, specifically targeting reductions in peak power demand and overall energy consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A high-fidelity building performance simulation test bed for the development and evaluation of advanced controls

We present an open-source building performance simulation test bed, the Advanced Controls Test Bed (ACTB), that interfaces high-fidelity Spawn of EnergyPlus building models, with advanced controllers implemented in Python. Additionally, the ACTB leverages the Building Optimization Testing and Alfalfa platforms for managing simulations, providing an external clock, a representational state transfer (REST) application programming interface (API), and key performance indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of control strategies. The REST API allows the development of external controllers programmed in languages such as Python, which provides flexibility and a rich choice of scientific libraries for designing control sequences. We present three test cases based on the U.S. Department of Energy's Reference Small Office Building to demonstrate the ACTB's capabilities: (a) rule-based controls compliant with ASHRAE Guideline 36 control sequences; (b) an economic model predictive control implemented using do-mpc; and (c) a deep Q-network reinforcement learning agent implemented using OpenAI Gym.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Accurate Modeling of Lyα Profiles and their Impact on Photolysis of Terrestrial Planet Atmospheres

Accurately measuring and modeling the Lyα (Lyα; λ1215.67 Å) emission line from low-mass stars is vital for our ability to build predictive high energy stellar spectra, yet interstellar medium (ISM) absorption of this line typically prevents model-measurement comparisons. Lyα also controls the photodissociation of important molecules, like water and methane, in exoplanet atmospheres such that any photochemical models assessing potential biosignatures or atmospheric abundances require accurate Lyα host star flux estimates. Recent observations of three early M and K stars (K3, M0, M1) with exceptionally high radial velocities (>100 km s −1 ) reveal the intrinsic profiles of these types of stars as most of their Lyα flux is shifted away from the geocoronal line core and contamination from the ISM. These observations indicate that previous stellar spectra computed with the PHOENIX atmosphere code have underpredicted the core of Lyα in these types of stars. With these observations, we have been able to better understand the microphysics in the upper atmosphere and improve the predictive capabilities of the PHOENIX atmosphere code. Since these wavelengths drive the photolysis of key molecular species, we also present results analyzing the impact of the resulting changes to the synthetic stellar spectra on observable chemistry in terrestrial planet atmospheres.

Sarah Peacock↗

Rancor-HUNTER: A Virtual Plant and Operator Environment for Predicting Human Performance

Advances in simulation capabilities to model physical systems have outpaced the development of simulations for humans using those physical systems. There is an argument that the infinite span of potential human behaviors inherently render human modeling more challenging than physical systems. Despite this challenge, the need for modeling humans interacting with these complex systems is paramount. As technologies have improved, many of the failure modes originating from the physical systems have been solved. This means the overall proportion of human errors has increased, such that it is not uncommon to be the primary driver of system failure in modern complex systems. Moreover, technologies such as automated systems may introduce emerging contexts that can cause new, unanticipated modes of human error. Therefore, it is now more important than ever to develop models of human behavior to realize overall system error reductions and achieve established safety margins. To support new and novel concepts of operations for the anticipated wave of advanced nuclear reactor deployments, human factors and human reliability analysis researchers need to develop advanced simulation-based approaches. This talk presents a simulation environment suitable to both collect data and then perform Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate human performance and develop better models of human behavior. Specifically, the Rancor Microworld Simulator models a complex energy production system in a simplified manner. Rancor includes computer-based procedures, which serve as a framework to automatically classify human behaviors without manual, subjective experimenter coding during scenarios. This method supports a detailed level of analysis at the task level. It is feasible for collecting large sample sizes required to develop quantitative modelling elements that have historically challenged traditional full-scope simulator study approaches. Additionally, the other portion of this experimental platform, the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), is presented to show how the collected data can be used to evaluate novel scenarios based on the contextual factors, or performance shaping factors, derived from Rancor simulations. Rancor-HUNTER is being used to predict operator performance with new procedures, such as results from control room modernization or new-build situations. Rancor-HUNTER is also proving a useful surrogate platform to model human performance for other complex systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗

Site demonstration and performance evaluation of MPC for a large chiller plant with TES for renewable energy integration and grid decarbonization

Thermal energy storage (TES) for a cooling plant is a crucial resource for load flexibility. Traditionally, simple, heuristic control approaches, such as the storage priority control which charges TES during the nighttime and discharges during the daytime, have been widely used in practice, and shown reasonable performance in the past benefiting both the grid and the end-users such as buildings and district energy systems. However, the increasing penetration of renewables changes the situation, exposing the grid to a growing duck curve, which encourages the consumption of more energy in the daytime, and volatile renewable generation which requires dynamic planning. The growing pressure of diminishing greenhouse gas emissions also increases the complexity of cooling TES plant operations as different control strategies may apply to optimize operations for energy cost or carbon emissions. This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC), site demonstration and evaluation results of optimal operation of a chiller plant, TES and behind-meter photovoltaics for a campus-level district cooling system. The MPC was formulated as a mixed-integer linear program for better numerical and control properties. Compared with baseline rule-based controls, the MPC results show reductions of the excess PV power by around 25%, of the greenhouse gas emission by 10%, and of peak electricity demand by 10%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimizing Facility Operations by Applying Machine Learning to the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System (Final Report)

Thousands of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) buildings have building automation systems (BASs) and/or advanced meters. Although these systems have a wealth of data, performance optimization requires time and expertise to review and act on that information. Machine learning (ML) can provide automated and actionable insights to controls operators. This demonstration implemented proven ML methods on the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System. ML refers to algorithms that “learn” from data and improve their performance on a given task over time. In the buildings domain these tasks range from predicting future energy consumption, to identifying operational issues before faults occur, to optimizing control decisions. To learn, ML requires input data, which – for buildings – typically consists of instrument data such as energy consumption data and subsystem controls information such as set-point temperatures, and context data consisting of information such as the physical location of the building, the area of the building, and the weather. ML models use the relationships learned from the input data to make predictions with new, previously unseen, data. The team was able to investigate and successfully implement the following ML use cases: labeling consumption data as anomalous or non-anomalous; baseline whole-building load prediction (unknown fault status); fault detection (validation not possible); and site prioritization for energy-related projects. Due to the constraints of the project, interventions were not able to be implemented during the demonstration; therefore, assessments of operational cost savings and maintenance avoided could not be performed. The project has been presented at two leading national building conferences and two additional publications to peer-reviewed journals are currently in preparation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deep Learning Explicit Differentiable Predictive Control Laws for Buildings

We present a differentiable predictive control (DPC) methodology for learning constrained control laws for unknown nonlinear systems. DPC poses an approximate solution to multiparametric programming problems emerging from explicit nonlinear model predictive control (MPC). Contrary to approximate MPC, DPC does not require supervision by an expert controller. Instead, a system dynamics model is learned from a small dataset of recorded observations of the perturbed system's dynamics and the control law is optimized offline by interaction with the learned system model. The DPC method is based on two sequential steps, i) system identification using a constrained neural state-space model, and ii) optimization of an explicit control law parametrized by another neural network in closed-loop simulation with the identified neural state-space model. The combination of a differentiable closed-loop system and penalty methods for constraint handling of system outputs and inputs allows us to optimize the control law's parameters directly by backpropagating economic MPC loss through the learned system model. By incorporating domain knowledge and leveraging established techniques from optimal control, our method leverages deep neural networks as nonlinear function approximators for system identification and control while avoiding concomitant costs of intractably large datasets, and computationally expensive over-parametrized models. The scalability, data efficiency, and constrained optimal control capability of the proposed DPC method are demonstrated in simulation using a multi-zone building emulator.

Drgona, Jan↗

A Machine Learning-based Approach to Predict the Aggregate Flexibility of HVAC Systems

Use of renewable energy resources can play a significant role in mitigation of climate change since they reduce the dependency on fossil fuels. However, high penetration of renewable energy resources into the power grid may cause some reliability problems. Ancillary services are key to realize the potential of renewable resources without disturbing the grid reliability. In recent years, many control approaches focused on exploiting the aggregate flexible heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) loads of buildings. However, there are still research gaps in assessing in advance the resulting indoor temperature responses for given total power and weather profiles before implementing the controls in the buildings. Such an assessment is critical to guarantee satisfying both the grid related objective (reliability) and the building related objective (occupants' comfort). Towards addressing this research gap, this paper presents a machine-learning approach for predicting the ratings of indoor temperature responses. In this approach, a prediction model was developed using a dataset generated by a set of model-free control simulations. The developed model achieved high prediction accuracy and showed the potential of the proposed approach.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

Residential buildings consume 4.4 quads of electricity annually, approximately 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. This represents a vast resource that can be used for demand management and other ancillary services. This project aims to develop a robust, scalable hierarchical transactional control mechanism incorporating elements of model-free control (MFC) and game theory to harness buildings to provide ancillary services to the grid. This approach is being taken to address the challenges of incorporating traditional transactional control schemes into existing buildings. The challenges include small individual building sizes requiring aggregation of many buildings, unpredictable energy usage that makes model identification difficult, and satisfying the sensitive occupant comfort constraints. In the proposed approach, by separating the control mechanism into two layers above and below the load aggregator, MFC can be used below the aggregator to modulate flexible building loads in response to pricing signals with guaranteed performance. This allows the burden of identifying an accurate model of the system to be shifted to the above-aggregator layer, where fluctuations in individual building usage have less impact on predicted building system behavior. Game theory concepts can then be used to determine pricing curves and control signals among regional aggregators. Managing this control in a game-theoretic approach will allow us to build in financial incentives that increase customer engagement. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable on small, embedded devices. In a broader sense, developing a strategy capable of effectively incorporating residential and small commercial buildings will allow greater throughput of existing and emerging grid services in addition to future transactive energy grid management methods. Using MFC within a hierarchical control architecture will allow the shifting of existing forecasting challenges to an aggregate level, where dynamics are slower and more predictable. This will enable a smooth interface between the grid services requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. MFC, which supports distributed control architecture, permits a scalable solution that can be deployed to neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. This project focuses on three objectives: (1) developing the mathematical framework, algorithm toolkit, and software toolset of the two-layer transactive control testbed; (2) developing a scalable solution for application over many residential and small-size commercial buildings with sparse distributed communication; and (3) field testing and implementation on hardware of the control strategies developed in the previous two objectives. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2025 targets timeframe. An open-source control framework for exploiting variability and dispatchability of building loads will be delivered as the outcome of the project. This capability enables greater participation of loads in electricity markets and ancillary services that are both useful for the utility and financially beneficial for building owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

HVAC control fine-grained occupancy pattern estimation

A thermal state of a plurality of zones of the building is updated according to a building thermal model and information received from temperature sensors of the building. Predicted occupant counts for an upcoming plurality of time slots for each of the plurality of zones are updated using actual occupancy counts for each of the plurality of zones. A misprediction type distribution for the upcoming plurality of time slots for each of the plurality of zones is updated, the misprediction type distribution indicating misprediction for true negatives, false positives, false negatives, and true positives. A total misprediction cost expectation is updated according to the predicted occupant counts and the misprediction type distribution. HVAC power for each of the plurality of zones is determined to optimize occupant thermal comfort weighted according to the predicted occupant counts while minimizing the total misprediction cost expectation. HVAC operation is controlled per the HVAC power.

Lin, Shan↗

A dynamic model of wind turbine yaw for active farm control

This paper presents a graph-based dynamic yaw model to predict the dynamic response of the hub-height velocities and the power of a wind farm to a change in yaw. The model builds on previous work where the turbines define the nodes of the graph and the edges represent the interactions between turbines. Advances associated with the dynamic yaw model include a novel analytical description of the deformation of wind turbine wakes under yaw to represent the velocity deficits and a more accurate representation of the interturbine travel time of wakes. The accuracy of the model is improved by coupling it with time- and space-dependent estimates of the wind farm inflow based on real-time data from the wind farm. The model is validated both statically and dynamically using large-eddy simulations. An application of the model is presented that incorporates the model into an optimal control loop to control the farm power output.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparing Calibration Algorithms for the Rapid Characterization of Pretreated Corn Stover Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

Rapid characterization of biomass composition is a key enabling technology for biorefineries—the ability to measure the chemical composition of biomass materials entering the biorefinery as well as the composition of key process intermediate streams would allow real-time process control and the development of robust models to predict process performance. The utility of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for rapid characterization requires multivariate algorithms for building calibration models. The most prevalent algorithm used for building calibration models using NIR spectra is the linear modeling algorithm Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS). Nonlinear regression algorithms (which are typically more computationally intensive than linear modeling approaches) have gained popularity in recent years due to their ability to solve a wide variety of classification and regression problems and the dramatic increase in available computational resources. In this work, we demonstrate that a calibration model can predict the composition of corn stover process intermediate samples pretreated with three different treatments—hot water (HW), dilute acid (DA), and deacetylation followed by dilute acid (DDA). We quantitatively compare three different algorithms for building prediction models based on near-infrared spectroscopy—partial least squares (PLS), support vector machines (SVM), and random forests (RF). We demonstrate the utility of improving model performance by accounting for instrument performance variability using repeated measurements of standard materials (e.g., the “repeatability file” strategy) and investigate its performance with nonlinear regression techniques, and we discuss methods for quantifying the uncertainties of specific predictions among the three methods.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Twinac: initiation of a community-driven accelerator digital twin framework

We present the initiation of a community-driven framework for the integration of accelerator digital twins into control systems: Twinac. Few facilities have fully integrated accelerator digital twins like at Cornell’s CHESS. Many facilities have active research to employ surrogate models to aid in operational decisions like at Argonne’s ALS, MSU’s FRIB, SLAC’s LCLS-II, and Fermilab’s FAST/IOTA, PIP-II, and main complex. To lower the barrier to entry for all accelerator facilities to build and benefit from a digital twin of their own accelerators, we propose the following software framework. Twinac will provide the capability to compose one’s own digital twin using reusable components engineered at other facilities. With this model in place, Twinac will also support tools for (1) predictive maintenance systems; (2) discovery of correlated but uncontrolled environmental factors, like seasonal temperature variations causing performance changes on power supplies, magnets, etc.; and (3) prototyping and updating sophisticated optimization and controls algorithms. The Twinac framework will enable sharing and simplified deployment of modeled components and control algorithms at all facilities. With an inter-facility team to build and support the Twinac framework, it will be easy to publish and try out the latest advancements at one’s own facility.

Miceli, Tia [Fermilab]↗

Preliminary Sensitivity Analysis for Sensors Impacts on Building Control Performance

This report describes the preliminary sensitivity analysis for sensor impacts on building control performance through the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform (FRP-2) building. The rooftop unit system provides cooling and heating to the building. The main heating coil is a gas heating coil. Each zone is served by a variable air volume box with an electricity reheat coil. The rooftop unit and variable air volume box controls adopted the practical control sequences from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation. For sensors, the incipient (time-changing) sensor errors, including bias sensor error and precision sensor error, are the inputs of interest. The outputs are energy consumption and thermal comfort (e.g., the predicted percentage of dissatisfied occupants). The large-scale simulation (3,600 cases) was conducted on a cloud platform by integrating sensor errors and ASHRAE Guideline 36 control sequences into an emulator based on the EnergyPlus simulation program with Python energy management system feature. The surrogate models were developed based on cloud simulation results. The uncertainty analysis showed that the sensor errors substantially affect building energy consumption and thermal comfort. The sensitivity analysis shows a ranking of sensor error impacts for each interested output item (e.g., cooling energy, reheat coil heating energy, predicted percentage of dissatisfied occupants). In FY 2022, sensor locations, types, and costs will be evaluated. The field test in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform building regarding sensor impacts will also be performed. Finally, a comparative analysis will be conducted based on the field test results and emulator results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗