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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamics of order and randomness in dopant distributions inferred from atomically resolved imaging

Abstract Exploration of structure-property relationships as a function of dopant concentration is commonly based on mean field theories for solid solutions. However, such theories that work well for semiconductors tend to fail in materials with strong correlations, either in electronic behavior or chemical segregation. In these cases, the details of atomic arrangements are generally not explored and analyzed. The knowledge of the generative physics and chemistry of the material can obviate this problem, since defect configuration libraries as stochastic representation of atomic level structures can be generated, or parameters of mesoscopic thermodynamic models can be derived. To obtain such information for improved predictions, we use data from atomically resolved microscopic images that visualize complex structural correlations within the system and translate them into statistical mechanical models of structure formation. Given the significant uncertainties about the microscopic aspects of the material’s processing history along with the limited number of available images, we combine model optimization techniques with the principles of statistical hypothesis testing. We demonstrate the approach on data from a series of atomically-resolved scanning transmission electron microscopy images of Mo x Re 1- x S 2 at varying ratios of Mo/Re stoichiometries, for which we propose an effective interaction model that is then used to generate atomic configurations and make testable predictions at a range of concentrations and formation temperatures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2020

Radiative Heating Rate Profiles over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 Biomass Burning Seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the First Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96 °S, 14.35 °W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign, alongside aerosol optical properties from MERRA-2 as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model, profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model. Idealized experiments using the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single scattering albedo demonstrate that shortwave heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K per day depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single scattering albedo assumptions in models.

Allison B. Marquardt Collow↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiative heating rate profiles over the southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 biomass burning seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF1) in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96° S, 14.35° W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign alongside aerosol optical properties from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM), profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Idealized experiments using the RRTM with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single-scattering albedo (SSA) demonstrate that shortwave (SW) heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K d -1 depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA, and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave (LW) cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single-scattering albedo assumptions in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Prognosis Using a Surrogate Model Trained Via 3D Finite Element Analysis

Utilizing inverse uncertainty quantification techniques, structural health monitoring can be integrated with damage progression models to form probabilistic predictions of a structure's remaining useful life. However, damage evolution in realistic structures is physically complex. Accurately representing this behavior requires high-fidelity models which are typically computationally prohibitive. In the present work, a high-fidelity finite element model is represented by a surrogate model, reducing computation times. The new approach is used with damage diagnosis data to form a probabilistic prediction of remaining useful life for a test specimen under mixed-mode conditions.

Leser, Patrick E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Trajectory-Based Loads for the Ares I-X Test Flight Vehicle

In trajectory-based loads, the structural engineer treats each point on the trajectory as a load case. Distributed aero, inertial, and propulsion forces are developed for the structural model which are equivalent to the integrated values of the trajectory model. Free-body diagrams are then used to solve for the internal forces, or loads, that keep the applied aero, inertial, and propulsion forces in dynamic equilibrium. There are several advantages to using trajectory-based loads. First, consistency is maintained between the integrated equilibrium equations of the trajectory analysis and the distributed equilibrium equations of the structural analysis. Second, the structural loads equations are tied to the uncertainty model for the trajectory systems analysis model. Atmosphere, aero, propulsion, mass property, and controls uncertainty models all feed into the dispersions that are generated for the trajectory systems analysis model. Changes in any of these input models will affect structural loads response. The trajectory systems model manages these inputs as well as the output from the structural model over thousands of dispersed cases. Large structural models with hundreds of thousands of degrees of freedom would execute too slowly to be an efficient part of several thousand system analyses. Trajectory-based loads provide a means for the structures discipline to be included in the integrated systems analysis. Successful applications of trajectory-based loads methods for the Ares I-X vehicle are covered in this paper. Preliminary design loads were based on 2000 trajectories using Monte Carlo dispersions. Range safety loads were tied to 8423 malfunction turn trajectories. In addition, active control system loads were based on 2000 preflight trajectories using Monte Carlo dispersions.

Vause, Roland F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Robust eigenstructure assignment by a projection method: Application using multiple optimization criteria

New ideas which lead to feedback control laws for large flexible structures which are insensitive to model uncertainty are presented. A pole placement method is presented which leads to near-unitary closed loop eigenvectors, and a new method is introduced to design the control while simultaneously considering three competing measures of optimality. Robustness versus Integral algorithms are applicable to at least moderately high-dimensioned systems. In the present discussion, controls for two coupled flexible bodies are considered. A 6x24 gain matrix is designed to control a 12 modes system using 6 actuators. Researchers also developed control laws for the R2P2 simulator at Martin Marietta; in this case 3 actuators are used to control a 12th order system. Simulation studies indicate that researchers indeed achieved robust designs without significant difficulties associated with spillover into the uncontrolled modes. Here, several key ideas and numerical results are given. In the references, details of the formulation, discussions of salient features, and connection to the availiable literature are given.

Junkins, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Efficient Global Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

User Selection Criteria of Airspace Designs in Flexible Airspace Management

A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

Lee, Hwasoo E.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Nonlinear Unsteady Aerodynamic Modeling Using Empirical Orthogonal Functions

Empirical orthogonal function modeling is explained and applied to identify compact discrete-time nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic models from data generated by an unsteady three-dimensional compressible Navier-Stokes flow solver for an airfoil undergoing various pitching motions. Model structures, model parameter estimates, and model parameter uncertainty estimates for nondimensional lift, drag, and pitching moment coefficient models were determined autonomously and directly from the data. Prediction tests using data that were not used in the modeling process showed that the identified models exhibited excellent prediction capability, which is a strong indicator of an accurate model.

empirical↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI in Astrophysics: Tackling Domain Shift, Model Robustness and Uncertainty

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing physics research from probing the large-scale structure of the Universe to modeling subatomic interactions and fundamental forces. Yet, a major challenge persists: AI models trained on simulations or old experiment / astronomical survey often perform poorly when applied to new data exposing issues of dataset (domain) shift, model robustness, and uncertainty in predictions. This talk will introduce common challenges in applying AI across domains and present solutions based on domain adaptation a set of techniques designed to improve model generalization under domain shift. We will cover foundational ideas, practical strategies, and current research frontiers in this area. Through examples in astrophysics, we'll explore how domain adaptation can help bridge the gap between synthetic and real-world data, improve trust in model outputs, and advance scientific discovery.

Ciprijanvoic, Aleksandra [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Assisted Probability of Detection for NASA Space Missions

Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modeling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) specialists within the Nondestructive Evaluation Sciences branch at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.

Elizabeth Gregory↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Assisted Probability of Detection for NASA Space Missions

Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modelling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) group at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.

Elizabeth Gregory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active learning of ternary alloy structures and energies

Abstract Machine learning models with uncertainty quantification have recently emerged as attractive tools to accelerate the navigation of catalyst design spaces in a data-efficient manner. Here, we combine active learning with a dropout graph convolutional network (dGCN) as a surrogate model to explore the complex materials space of high-entropy alloys (HEAs). We train the dGCN on the formation energies of disordered binary alloy structures in the Pd-Pt-Sn ternary alloy system and improve predictions on ternary structures by performing reduced optimization of the formation free energy, the target property that determines HEA stability, over ensembles of ternary structures constructed based on two coordinate systems: (a) a physics-informed ternary composition space, and (b) data-driven coordinates discovered by the Diffusion Maps manifold learning scheme. Both reduced optimization techniques improve predictions of the formation free energy in the ternary alloy space with a significantly reduced number of DFT calculations compared to a high-fidelity model. The physics-based scheme converges to the target property in a manner akin to a depth-first strategy, whereas the data-driven scheme appears more akin to a breadth-first approach. Both sampling schemes, coupled with our acquisition function, successfully exploit a database of DFT-calculated binary alloy structures and energies, augmented with a relatively small number of ternary alloy calculations, to identify stable ternary HEA compositions and structures. This generalized framework can be extended to incorporate more complex bulk and surface structural motifs, and the results demonstrate that significant dimensionality reduction is possible in thermodynamic sampling problems when suitable active learning schemes are employed.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and simulating the weather forecast uncertainty for advanced building control

Weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable despite technological advancements. Accurately quantifying and modelling this uncertainty is essential for developing and comparing advanced building controllers. In this study, we present a structured approach using a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)) to model uncertainty in ambient temperature and global solar irradiation (GHI) forecasts. We analyzed weather data from four cities and employed Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD) to evaluate the similarity between synthetic and actual forecast errors. The average JSD values for temperature are 0.027 (Berkeley), 0.021 (Leuven), 0.018 (Berlin), and 0.008 (Oslo), and for GHI, the average JSD values are 0.016 (Berkeley), 0.058 (Leuven), and 0.013 (Berlin). The low JSD values indicate a high similarity between the synthetic and real forecast error distributions. Further, our approach successfully generates synthetic weather forecasts that mirror the statistical properties of actual forecasts. The implementation of our method for uncertain forecast generation is being added to the BOPTEST framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Multimodel Investigation of Asian Summer Monsoon UTLS Transport Over the Western Pacific

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) as a chemical transport system is investigated using a suite of models in preparation for an airborne field campaign over the Western Pacific. Results show that the dynamical process of anticyclone eddy shedding in the upper troposphere rapidly transports convectively uplifted Asian boundary layer air masses to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Western Pacific. The models show that the transported air masses contain significantly enhanced aerosol loading and a complex chemical mixture of trace gases that are relevant to ozone chemistry. The chemical forecast models consistently predict the occurrence of the shedding events, but the predicted concentrations of transported trace gases and aerosols often differ between models. The airborne measurements to be obtained in the field campaign are expected to help reduce the model uncertainties. Furthermore, the large-scale seasonal chemical structure of the monsoon system is obtained from modeled carbon monoxide, a tracer of the convective transport of pollutants, which provides a new perspective of the ASM circulation, complementing the dynamical characterization of the monsoon.

Laura L. Pan↗
NASA NTRS1989

Adaptive structures; Proceedings of the ASME Winter Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 10-15, 1989

The present conference on adaptive structures discusses piezoelectric and electrostrictive sensors and actuators for adaptive structures and smart materials, real-time control for composite structures with embedded actuators and sensors, a laminated-shell theory incorporating embedded distributed actuators, traveling-wave power flow techniques, uncertainty modeling for the control of an active structure, and active vibration isolation in the presence of unmodeled structural dynamic response. Also discussed are the control of flexible beams via free-free active truss, truss structure control using member actuators with latch mechanism, neural processors for smart-structure control, the effect of imperfections on the static control of adaptive structures, adaptive structures for segmented optical systems, and the shape-control of flexible structures.

Wada, Ben K.↗