Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “modeling discrepancy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

Operational Experiences in Planning and Reconstructing Aqua Inclination Maneuvers

As the lead satellite in NASA's growing Earth Observing System (EOS) PM constellation, it is increasingly critical that Aqua maintain its various orbit requirements. The two of interest for this paper are maintaining an orbit inclination that provides for a consistent mean local time and a semi-major Axis (SMA) that allows for ground track repeatability. Maneuvers to adjust the orbit inclination involve several flight dynamics constraints and complexities which make planning such maneuvers challenging. In particular, coupling between the orbital and attitude degrees of freedom lead to changes in SMA when changes in inclination are effected. A long term mission mean local time trend analysis was performed in order to determine the size and placement of the required inclination maneuvers. Following this analysis, detailed modeling of each burn and its Various segments was performed to determine its effects on the immediate orbit state. Data gathered from an inclination slew test of the spacecraft and first inclination maneuver uncovered discrepancies in the modeling method that were investigated and resolved. The new modeling techniques were applied and validated during the second spacecraft inclination maneuver. These improvements should position Aqua to successfully complete a series of inclination maneuvers in the fall of 2004. The following paper presents the events and results related

Rand, David↗

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.

Considine, D. B.↗

OH-asterisk (7-5) Meinel band dayglow and nightglow measured by the SME limb scanning near infrared spectrometer - Comparison of the observed seasonal variability with two-dimensional model simulations

Seasonal variations of the OH-asterisk (7-5) mesospheric hydroxyl emission at 1.89 microns observed by the SME near-IR spectrometer are compared with the theoretical predictions of a two-dimensional dynamical/chemical model. The good agreement found at low latitudes for both dayglow and nightglow provides support for the model assumption that breaking gravity waves induce seasonal and latitudinal variations in diffusion. The seasonal behavior of atomic hydrogen in the upper mesosphere (related to vertical transport) and/or uncertainties in the OH Meinel band parameters are proposed as possible explanations for the discrepancy noted between model and observational data for the middle latitudes.

Le Texier, H.↗

The Impacts of Dry Dynamic Cores on Asymmetric Hurricane Intensification

The fundamental pathways for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification are explored by considering axisymmetric and asymmetric impulsive thermal perturbations to balanced, TC-like vortices using the dynamic cores of three different nonlinear numerical models. Attempts at reproducing the results of previous work, which used the community WRF Model, revealed a discrepancy with the impacts of purely asymmetric thermal forcing. The current study finds that thermal asymmetries can have an important, largely positive role on the vortex intensification, whereas other studies find that asymmetric impacts are negligible. Analysis of the spectral energetics of each numerical model indicates that the vortex response to asymmetric thermal perturbations is significantly damped in WRF relative to the other models. Spectral kinetic energy budgets show that this anomalous damping is primarily due to the increased removal of kinetic energy from the vertical divergence of the vertical pressure flux, which is related to the flux of inertia-gravity wave energy. The increased kinetic energy in the other two models is shown to originate around the scales of the heating and propagate upscale with time from nonlinear effects. For very large thermal amplitudes (50 K), the anomalous removal of kinetic energy due to inertia-gravity wave activity is much smaller, resulting in good agreement between models. The results of this paper indicate that the numerical treatment of small-scale processes that project strongly onto inertia-gravity wave energy can lead to significant differences in asymmetric TC intensification. Sensitivity tests with different time integration schemes suggest that diffusion entering into the implicit solution procedure is partly responsible for the anomalous damping of energy.

Guimond, Stephen R.↗

Design, analysis and test verification of advanced encapsulation systems

An analytical methodology for advanced encapsulation designs was developed. From these methods design sensitivities are established for the development of photovoltaic module criteria and the definition of needed research tasks. Analytical models were developed to perform optical, thermal, electrical and analyses on candidate encapsulation systems. From these analyses several candidate systems were selected for qualification testing. Additionally, test specimens of various types are constructed and tested to determine the validity of the analysis methodology developed. Identified deficiencies and/or discrepancies between analytical models and relevant test data are corrected. Prediction capability of analytical models is improved. Encapsulation engineering generalities, principles, and design aids for photovoltaic module designers is generated.

Garcia, A., III↗

On the determination of the harmonic components of the diurnal variation of the thermosphere from satellite drag data

The accuracy of the diurnal and semidiurnal harmonics of density variation determined from satellite drag data is discussed and compared with data from the Jacchia empirical atmospheric model. The phase discrepancies between densities and temperatures, which are more pronounced in summer, and the extrema of the density data are described. The ratio of the semidiurnal to diurnal component of kinetic temperature, determined from Salah and Evans incoherent scatter radar observations, also indicates a seasonal variation. The radar data are compared with the Jacchia model, and a third harmonic is discussed.

Blum, P. W.↗

Modelling and experimental verification of a water alleviation system for the NASP

One possible low speed propulsion system for the National Aerospace Plane is a liquid air cycle engine (LACE). The LACE system uses the heat sink in the liquid hydrogen propellant to liquefy air in a heat exchanger which is then pumped up to high pressure and used as the oxidizer in a hydrogen liquid air rocket. The inlet airstream must be dehumidified or moisture could freeze on the cryogenic heat exchangers and block them. The main objective of this research has been to develop a computer simulation of the cold tube/antifreeze-spray water alleviation system and to verify the model with experimental data. An experimental facility has been built and humid air tests were conducted on a generic heat exchanger to obtain condensing data for code development. The paper describes the experimental setup, outlines the method of calculation used in the code, and presents comparisons of the calculations and measurements. Cause of discrepancies between the model and data are explained.

Vanfossen, G. James↗

Validation of cloud forcing simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model using observations from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment

Satellite measurements of the effect of clouds on the top of atmosphere radiative energy budget are used to validate model simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (NCAR CCM). The ability of the NCAR CCM to reproduce the monthly mean global distribution and temporal variability on both daily and seasonal time scales is assessed. The comparison reveals several deficiencies in the CCM cloud representation. Most notable are the difficulties in properly simulating the effect of clouds on the planetary albedo. This problem arises from discrepancies in the model's portrayal of low-level cloudiness and leads to significant errors in the absorbed solar radiation simulated by the model. The CCM performs much better in simulating the effect of clouds on the longwave radiation emitted to space, indicating its relative success in capturing the vertical distribution of cloudiness. The daily variability of the radiative effects of clouds in both the shortwave and longwave spectral regions is systematically overestimated. Analysis of the seasonal variations illustrates a distinct lack of coupling in the seasonal changes in the radiative effects of cloudiness between the tropics and mid-latitudes and between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Much of this problem also arises from difficulties in simulating low-level cloudiness, placing further emphasis on the need for better model parameterizations of boundary layer clouds.

Soden, B. J.↗

Tracing the Jet Contribution to the Mid-IR over the 2005 Outburst of GRO J1655-40 via Broadband Spectral Modeling

We present new results from a multi-wavelength (radio/infrared/optical/X-ray) study of the black hole Xray binary GRO 51655-40 during its 2005 outburst. We detected, for the first time, mid-infrared emission at 24 micron from the compact jet of a black hole X-ray binary during its hard state, when the source shows emission from a radio compact jet, as well as a strong non-thermal hard X-ray component. These detections strongly constrain the optically thick part of the synchrotron spectrum of the compact jet, which is consistent with it being flat over 4 orders of magnitude in frequency. Moreover, using this unprecedented coverage, and especially thanks to the new Spitzer observations, we can test broadband disk and jet models during the hard state. Two of the hard-state broadband spectra are reasonably well fitted using a jet model with parameters that overall are similar to those previously found for Cyg X-1 and GX 339-4. Differences are also present; most notably, the jet power in GRO J1655-40 appears to be a factor of at least approximately 3-5 higher (depending on the distance) than those of Cyg X-1 and GX-339-4 at comparable disk luminosities. Furthermore, a few discrepancies between the model and the data, previously not found for the other two black hole systems for which there was no mid-IR/IR and optical coverage, are evident, and will help to constrain and refine theoretical models.

Migliari, S.↗

Climatological Structures of the GRIPS Models: Mean States and Forcing

The GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS) is assessing and monitoring the performance of state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs). A wide variety of tasks have been initiated. These are designed to: (1) assess the ability of the GCMs to represent the current climatological structure of the troposphere and middle atmosphere,(2) to compare their response to imposed forcing anomalies, and (3) to estimate the certainty with which future climate perturbations can be predicted. This paper is concerned with assessments of the climatological states in the GCM simulations. Comparing the simulations with observational datasets reveals considerable discrepancies in the modelled fields. While it might be anticipated that certain types of biases in the model simulations might be related to the formulation of different aspects of the numerical package (dynamical schemes, cloud schemes, radiation transfer, inclusion of gravity wave drag), there is no clear relationship between these features. This paper attempts to draw a more comprehensive picture of the GCMs'performance than has previously been shown, by comparing the dominant forcing mechanisms in the models with observational estimates, and relating model deficiencies to the differences in the physical mechanisms in the GCMS.

Pawson, Steven↗

Downscattering due to Wind Outflows in Compact X-ray Sources: Theory and Interpretation

A number of recent lines of evidence point towards the presence of hot, outflowing plasma from the central regions of compact Galactic and extragalactic X-ray sources. Additionally, it has long been noted that many of these sources exhibit an "excess" continuum component, above approx. 10 keV, usually attributed to Compton Reflection from a static medium. Motivated by these facts, as well as by recent observational constraints on the Compton reflection models - specifically apparently discrepant variability timescales for line and continuum components in some cases - we consider possible of effects of out-flowing plasma on the high-energy continuum spectra of accretion powered compact objects. We present a general formulation for photon downscattering diffusion which includes recoil and Comptonization effects due to divergence of the flow. We then develop an analytical theory for the spectral formation in such systems that allows us to derive formulae for the emergent spectrum. Finally we perform the analytical model fitting on several Galactic X-ray binaries. Objects which have been modeled with high-covering-fraction Compton reflectors, such as GS1353-64 are included in our analysis. In addition, Cyg X-3, is which is widely believed to be characterized by dense circumstellar winds with temperature of order 10(exp 6) K, provides an interesting test case. Data from INTEGRAL and RXTE covering the approx. 3 - 300 keV range are used in our analysis. We further consider the possibility that the widely noted distortion of the power-law continuum above 10 keV may in some cases be explained by these spectral softening effects.

Titarchuk, Lev↗

The Ionized Gas and Nuclear Environment in NGC 3783: Variability and Modeling of the 900 ks CHANDRA Spectrum - IV

We present a detailed analysis of the 900 ks spectrum of NGC3783 obtained by Chandra in 2000-2001 (Kaspi et al. 2002). We split the data in various ways to look for time dependent and luminosity dependent spectral variations. This analysis, the measured equivalent widths of a large number of X-ray lines, and our photoionization calculations, lead us to the following conclusions: 1) NGC 3783 fluctuated in luminosity, by a factor N 1.5, during individual 170 ks observations. The fluctuations were not associated with significant spectral variations. 2) On a longer time scale, of 20-120 days, we discovered two very different spectral shapes that are noted the high state and the low state spectra. The observed changes between the two can be described as the appearance and disappearance of a soft continuum component. The spectral variations are not related, in a simple way, to the brightening or the fading of the short wavelength continuum, as observed in other objects. NGC3783 seems to be the first AGN to show this unusual behavior. 3) The appearance of the soft continuum component is consistent with beeing the only spectral variation and there is no need to invoke changes in the absorber s opacity. In particular, all absorption lines with reliable measurements show the same equivalent width, within the observational uncertainties, during high and low states. 4) Photoionization model calculations show that a combination of three ionization components, each split into two kinematic components, explain very well the intensity of almost all absorption lines and the bound-free absorption. The components span a large range of ionization and a total column of about 3 x 10(exp 22) per square centimeter Moreover, all components are thermally stable and are situated on the vertical branch of the stability curve.. This means that they are in pressure equilibrium and perhaps occupy the same volume of space. This is the first detection of such a multi-component equilibrium gas in AGN. 5) The only real discrepancy between the model and the observations is the wavelength of the iron M-shell UTA feature. This is most likely due to an underestimation of the dielectronic recombination O VI and discuss its possible origin. 6) The lower limit on the distance of the absorbing gas in NGC3783 is between 0.2 and 3.2 pc, depending of the specific ionization component. The constant pressure assumption imposes an upper limit of about 25 pc on the distance of the least ionized gas from the central sourec.

Netzer, Hagai↗

Impact of January 2005 Solar Proton Events on Chlorine Species

Sudden changes in stratospheric chlorine species in the polar northern atmosphere, caused by the Solar Proton Events (SPEs) of 17 and 20 January 2005, have been investigated and compared with version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). We used Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements to monitor the variability of ClO, HCl, HOCl and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounder (MIPAS) on ENVISAT to retrieve ClONO2. SPE-induced chlorine activation has been identified. HCl decrease occurred at nearly all the investigated altitudes with the lowest values (of less than 0.25 ppbv) on 21 January. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions (with increases of more than 0.2 ppbv) whereas both HOCL and CLO enhancements (about 0.1 ppbv) have been observed at the polar night terminator. Further, small ClO decreases (of less than 0.1 ppbv) and ClONO2 enhancements (~0.2 ppbv) have been observed at higher latitudes (i.e., at nighttime) roughly above 2hPa. While WACCM4 reproduces most of the SPE-induced variability in the chlorine species fairly well, in some particular regions discrepancies between the modeled and measured temporal evolution of the abundances of chlorine species were found. HOCl changes are modelled very well with respect to both magnitude and geographic distribution. ClO decreases are reproduced at high latitudes, whereas ClO enhancements in the terminator region are underestimated and attributed to background variations. WACCM4 also reproduces the HCl depletion in the mesosphere but it does not show the observed decrease below about 2 hPa. Finally, WACCM4 simulations indicate that the observed ClONO2 increase is dominated by background variability, although SPE-induced production might contribute by 0.1 ppbv.

Damiani, A.↗

Impact of January 2005 Solar Proton Events on Chlorine Species

Sudden changes in stratospheric chlorine species in the polar northern atmosphere, caused by the Solar Proton Events (SPEs) of 17 and 20 January 2005, have been investigated and compared with version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). We used Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements to monitor the variability of ClO, HCl, HOCl and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounder (MIPAS) on ENVISAT to retrieve ClONO2. SPE-induced chlorine activation has been identified. HCl decrease occurred at nearly all the investigated altitudes (i.e., 10-0.5 hPa) with the strongest decrease (of about 0.25 ppbv) on 21 January. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions (with increases of more than 0.2 ppbv) whereas both HOCl and ClO enhancements (about 0.1 ppbv) have been observed at the polar night terminator. Further, small ClO decreases (of less than 0.1 ppbv) and ClONO2 enhancements (about 0.2 ppbv) have been observed at higher latitudes (i.e., at nighttime) roughly above 2 hPa. While WACCM4 reproduces most of the SPE-induced variability in the chlorine species fairly well, in some particular regions discrepancies between the modeled and measured temporal evolution of the abundances of chlorine species were found. HOCl changes are modelled very well with respect to both magnitude and geographic distribution. ClO decreases are reproduced at high latitudes, whereas ClO enhancements in the terminator region are underestimated and attributed to background variations. WACCM4 also reproduces the HCl depletion in the mesosphere but it does not show the observed decrease below about 2 hPa. Finally, WACCM4 simulations indicate that the observed ClONO2 increase is dominated by background variability, although SPE-induced production might contribute by 0.1 ppbv.

Damiani, A.↗

A Review of the Match Technique as Applied to AASE-2/EASOE and SOLVE/THESEO 2000

We apply the GSFC trajectory model with a series of ozonesondes to derive ozone loss rates in the lower stratosphere for the AASE-2/EASOE mission (January - March 1992) and for the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 mission (January - March 2000) in an approach similar to Match. Ozone loss rates are computed by comparing the ozone concentrations provided by ozonesondes launched at the beginning and end of the trajectories connecting the launches. We investigate the sensitivity of the Match results on the various parameters used to reject potential matches in the original Match technique and conclude that only a filter based on potential vorticity changes along the calculated back trajectory seems necessary. Our study also demonstrates that calculated ozone loss rates can vary by up to a factor of two depending upon the precise trajectory paths calculated for each trajectory. As a result an additional systematic error might need to be added to the statistical uncertainties published with previous Match results. The sensitivity to the trajectory path is particularly pronounced in the month of January, the month during which the largest ozone loss rate discrepancies between photochemical models and Match are found. For most of the two study periods, our ozone loss rates agree with those previously published. Notable exceptions are found for January 1992 at 475 K and late February/early March 2000 at 450 K, both periods during which we find less loss than the previous studies. Integrated ozone loss rates in both years compare well with those found in numerous other studies and in a potential vorticity/potential temperature approach shown previously and in this paper. Finally, we suggest an alternate approach to Match using trajectory mapping that appears to more accurately reflect the true uncertainties associated with Match and reduces the dependence upon filters that may bias the results of Match through the rejection of greater than or equal to 80% of the matched sonde pairs and >99% of matched observations.

Morris, Gary A.↗

Assessing Spectral Shortwave Cloud Observations at the Southern Great Plains Facility

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program (now Atmospheric System Research) was established, in part, to improve radiation models so that they could be used reliably to compute radiation fluxes through the atmosphere, given knowledge of the surface albedo, atmospheric gases, and the aerosol and cloud properties. Despite years of observations, discrepancies still exist between radiative transfer models and observations, particularly in the presence of clouds. Progress has been made at closing discrepancies in the spectral region beyond 3 micron, but the progress lags at shorter wavelengths. Ratios of observed visible and near infrared cloud albedo from aircraft and satellite have shown both localized and global discrepancies between model and observations that are, thus far, unexplained. The capabilities of shortwave surface spectrometry have been improved in recent years at the Southern Great Plains facility (SGP) of the ARM Climate Research Facility through the addition of new instrumentation, the Shortwave Array Spectroradiometer, and upgrades to existing instrumentation, the Shortwave Spectroradiometer and the Rotating Shadowband Spectroradiometer. An airborne-based instrument, the HydroRad Spectroradiometer, was also deployed at the ARM site during the Routine ARM Aerial Facility Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths (CLOWD) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign. Using the new and upgraded spectral observations along with radiative transfer models, cloud scenes at the SGP are presented with the goal of characterizing the instrumentation and the cloud fields themselves.

McBride, P. J.↗

The continuous UV flux of Alpha Lyrae - Non-LTE results

Non-LTE calculations for the ultraviolet C I and Si I continuous opacity show that LTE results overestimate the importance of these sources of opacity and underestimate the emergent flux in Alpha Lyr. The largest errors occur between 1100 and 1160 A, where the predicted flux in non-LTE is as much as 50 times larger than in LTE, in reasonable accord with Copernicus observations. The discrepancy between LTE models and observations has been interpreted to result from the existence of a chromosphere. Until a self-consistent non-LTE model atmosphere becomes available, such an interpretation is premature.

Snijders, M. A. J.↗