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High Latitude Atmospheric Rivers: Teleconnections and Impacts

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale features that act as moisture transport vehicles by moving water vapor poleward. They are typically found in storm tracks and often have profound implications for regional hydroclimate. For high latitude locales such as Antarctica and the Arctic, ARs are fewer in number but often have an outsized impact by either producing significant snow accumulation events, or, depending on their thermal characteristics, initiating melt events on ice sheets, ice shelves, and sea ice. In this study, we apply both reanalysis and climate model data to evaluate high latitude ARs for both the Arctic and Antarctic in the context of teleconnections and modes of variability. Specifically, we fold in both MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalysis as well as historical and climate change simulations from the CESM2 (Community Earth System Model, Version 2) and E3SMv2 (Energy Exascale Earth System Model, v2) with multiple ensemble members to better understand natural variability versus climate change signals. An overview of AR climatology and impacts will be presented, including a baseline uncertainty quantification analysis using data from ARTMIP (the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project). AR impacts during specific modes of variability will be characterized by diagnosing precipitation and boundary layer temperature associated with Ars influencing the cryosphere. Modes of variability investigated include the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), PSA2 (Pacific South American Mode 2), the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), and the AO (Arctic Oscillation).

Atmospheric Rivers↗
NASA NTRS2001

Quantitative Assessment of the Integrated Response in Global Heat and Moisture Budgets to Changing Solar Irradiance

Earlier, we found time sequences of basin- and global-average upper ocean temperature (that is, diabatic heat storage above the main pycnocline) for 40 years from 1955-1994 and of sea surface temperature for 95 years from 1900-1994 associated with changes in the Sun's radiative forcing on decadal and interdecadal timescales, lagging by 10 deg.- 30 deg. of phase and confined to the upper 60-120 m. Yet, the observed changes in upper ocean temperature (approx. 0.1 K) were approximately twice those expected from the Stefan-Boltzmann black-body radiation law for the Earth's surface, with phase lags (0 deg. to 30 deg. of phase) much shorter than the 90 deg. phase shift expected as well. Moreover, White et al. (1997, 1998) found the Earth's global decadal mode in covarying SST and SLP anomalies phase locked to the decadal signal in the Sun's irradiance. Yet, Allan (2000) found this decadal signal also characterized by patterns similar to those observed on biennial and interannual time scales; that is, the Troposphere Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and the El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This suggested that small changes in the Sun's total irradiance could excite this global decadal mode in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial system similar to those excited internally on biennial and interannual period scales. This is a significant finding, proving that energy budget models (that is, models based on globally-averaged radiation balances) yield unrealistic responses. Thus, the true response must include positive and negative feedbacks in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial system as its internal mode (that is, the natural mode of the system) respond in damped resonance to quasi-periodic decadal changes in the Sun's irradiance. Moreover, these responses are not much different from those occurring internally on biennial and interannual period scales.

White, Warren B.↗
NASA NTRS2009

System Modeling of Metabolic Heat Regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption (MTSA) Subassembly for Prototype Design

This paper describes modeling methods for the three core components of a Metabolic heat regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption (MTSA) subassembly: the sorbent bed, a sublimation (cooling) heat exchanger (SHX), and a condensing icing (warming) heat exchanger (CIHX). The primary function of the MTSA, removing carbon dioxide from a ventilation loop, is performed via the sorbent bed. The CIHX is used to heat the sorbent bed for desorption and to remove moisture from the ventilation loop while the SHX is alternately employed to cool the sorbent bed via sublimation of a spray of water at low pressure to prepare the reconditioned bed for the next cycle. This paper describes a system level model of the MTSA as developed in Thermal Desktop and SINDA/FLUINT including assumptions on geometry and physical phenomena, modeling methodology and relevant pa ra mete rizatio ns. Several areas of particular modeling interest are discussed. In the sorbent bed, capture of the translating CO2 saturation front and associated local energy and mass balance in both adsorbing and desorbing modes is covered. The CIHX poses particular challenges for modeling in SINDA/FLUINT as accounting for solids states in fluid submodels are not a native capability. Methods for capturing phase change and latent heat of ice as well as the transport properties across a layer of low density accreted frost are developed. This extended modeling capacity is applicable to temperatures greater than 258 K. To extend applicability to the minimum device temperature of 235 K, a method for a mapped transformation of temperatures from below the limit temperatures to some value above is given along with descriptions for associated material property transformations and the resulting impacts to total heat and mass transfer. Similar considerations are shown for the SHX along with assumptions for flow mechanics and resulting model methods for sublimation in a flow.

Bower, Chad↗
NASA NTRS1997

An Insidious Mode of Oxidative Degradation in a SiC-SiC Composite

The oxidative durability of a SiC-SiC composite with Hi-Nicalon fiber and BN interphase was investigated at 800 C (where pesting is known to occur in SiC-SiC composites) for exposure durations of up to 500 hours and in a variety of oxidant mixes and flow rates, ranging from quasi-stagnant room air, through slow flowing O2 containing 30-90% H2O, to the high-velocity flame of a burner rig. Degradation of the composite was determined from residual strength and fracture strain in post-exposure mechanical tests and correlated with microstructural evidence of damage to fiber and interphase. The severest degradation of composite behavior was found to occur in the bumer rig, and is shown to be connected with the high oxidant velocity and substantial moisture content, as well as a thin sublayer of carbon indicated to form between fiber and interphase during composite processing.

Ogbuji, Linus U. J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1980

A high resolution soil moisture radiometer

The design of an L-band high resolution soil moisture radiometer is described. The selected system is a planar slotted waveguide array at L-band frequencies. The square aperture is 74.75 m by 74.75 m subdivided into 8 tilted subarrays. The system has a 290 km circular orbit and provides a spatial resolution of 1 km. The aperture forms 230 simultaneous beams in a cross-track pattern which covers a swath 420 km wide. A revisit time of 6 days is provided for an orbit inclination of 50 deg. The 1 km resolution cell allows an integration time of 1/7 second and sharing this time period sequentially between two orthogonal polarization modes can provide a temperature resolution of 0.7 K.

Dod, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A GNC Perspective of the Launch and Commissioning of NASA's SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) Spacecraft

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) spacecraft was designed to use radar and radiometer measurements to produce global soil moisture measurements every 2-3 days. The SMAP spacecraft is a complicated dual-spinning design with a large 6 meter deployable mesh reflector mounted on a platform that spins at 14.6 rpm while the Guidance Navigation and Control algorithms maintain precise nadir pointing for the de-spun portion of the spacecraft. After launching in early 2015, the Guidance Navigation and Control software and hardware aboard the SMAP spacecraft underwent an intensive spacecraft checkout and commissioning period. This paper describes the activities performed by the Guidance Navigation and Control team to confirm the health and phasing of subsystem hardware and the functionality of the guidance and control modes and algorithms. The operations tasks performed, as well as anomalies that were encountered during the commissioning, are explained and results are summarized.

Brown, Todd S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Interpreting Precession-Driven δ O-18 Variability in the South Asian Monsoon Region

Speleothem records from the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region display variability in the ratio of O-18 and O-16 (δ O-18) in calcium carbonate at orbital frequencies. The dominant mode of variability in many of these records reflects cycles of precession. There are several potential explanations for why SASM speleothem records show a strong precession signal, including changes in temperature, precipitation, and circulation. Here we use an Earth system model with water isotope tracers and water-tagging capability to deconstruct the precession signal found in SASM speleothem records. Our results show that cycles of precession-eccentricity produce changes in SASM intensity that correlate with local temperature, precipitation, and δ O-18. However, neither the amount effect nor temperature differences are responsible for the majority of the SASM δ O-18 variability. Instead, changes in the relative moisture contributions from different source regions drive much of the SASM δ O-18 signal, with more nearby moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at aphelion and more distant moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at perihelion. Further, we find that evaporation amplifies the δ O-18 signal of soil water relative to that of precipitation, providing a better match with the SASM speleothem records. This work helps explain a significant portion of the long-term variability found in SASM speleothem records.

paleoclimate↗
NASA NTRS2014

Thermodynamics in the Suppressed Phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Using a Multiplatform Strategy

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) represents a prominent mode of intraseasonal tropical variability. It is manifest by coherent large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, convection, and thermodynamic processes. Preconditioning of the environment prior to the active phase of the MJO has been noted, but the balance of theorized mechanisms to accomplish this process remains unresolved. Further, there is a lack of consensus on the means by which primary initiation of an MJO event occurs. Observational and modeling efforts have recently been undertaken to advance our understanding of the physical underpinnings governing MJO development. However these intensive studies are often limited in space and/or time and are potentially subject to model deficiencies. Satellite observations, especially those providing vertical resolution of temperature and moisture, provide an opportunity to expand our knowledge of processes critical to MJO initiation and preconditioning. This work will provide an analysis of suppressed phase thermodynamics with an emphasis on the use of a complementary suite of satellite observations including AIRS/AMSU-A profiles, CERES radiative fluxes, and cloud properties observed by MODIS. Emphasis of this work will regard the distribution of cloud regimes, their radiative-convective effects, and their relationship to moist static energy during the recharge and suppressed stages of MJO initiation and eastward propagation. The analyses will make use of cloud regimes from MODIS observations to provide a compositing technique that enables the identification of systematic connections between different cloud regimes and the larger scale environment. Within these cloud regimes, the relationship between the associated cloud-radiative effects observed by CERES, vertically-resolved and vertically-integrated thermodynamics using AIRS/AMSU-A observations, and atmospheric boundary layer fluxes will be demonstrated.

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS1969

Apollo 6, Anomaly Report No. 6: Abnormal Structural Performance During Launch Phase

Approximately 2 minutes 13 seconds after lift-off of the Apollo 6 mission, abrupt changes of strain, vibration, and acceleration measurements were indicated in the S-IVB, instrument unit, adapter, lunar module, and command and service modules; photographs showed objects coming from the area of the adapter. The adapter, however, continued to sustain the required loads with no impairment of the mission. The investigation was first focused upon the understanding of the coupled vibration modes and characteristics of the launch vehicle and spacecraft.' Extensive test programs were conducted. It was eventually concluded that the adapter failure was not caused by vibration. Extensive study of the airborne photography and other evidence indicated that a large area of the adapter had lost inner facesheet from the honeycomb sandwich panels. Loads and stresses resulting from vibration were determined to be insufficient to initiate such a failure. The investigation was then directed toward determining the range of pressures that could have been trapped in the Apollo 6 adapter sandwich panels, and toward determining the tolerance of the panels to withstand pressure with various degrees of flaws such as adhesive voids and facesheet dents. The degradation effects of moisture and heat exposure on the adhesive strength were also studied and tested. These tests and analyses led to the conclusion that pressure internal to the sandwich panels could have caused the failure, if a large flaw existed. The pressure buildup would have been caused by aerodynamic heating effects on air and moisture trapped in the panel. The probable cause of the failure was found in the original ultrasonic inspection scan record of the affected adapter panel. In the center of the region where the adapter failed, horizontally along the station 709 panel splice, the record contained two thick anomalous lines extending several feet. Without an X-ray record of this region, the significance of this particular scan record cannot be fully understood. However, since all other evidence had indicated that the adhesive had to be weakened in a rather large area to initiate the failure, the investigation was focused intently upon the station 709 splices of other adapters. Sufficient information was developed to verify that deficient assembly techniques have consistently resulted in abnormalities in the structure at this station. These abnormalities were identified in adapters 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16. Before the splice abnormalities were pinpointed, corrective action was taken to reduce pressure "buildup in the honeycomb panels and to reduce heat degrading effects on the adhesive. This was done by drilling vent holes in the inner facesheet and covering the outer facesheet with cork. The adapters having identified abnormalities in the station 709 splice are being repaired, and the contractor is investigating ways of avoiding these -abnormalities in panels yet to be bonded.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Geosynchronous Synthetic Aperture Provides for Disaster Management, Measurement of Soil Moisture, and Measurement of Earth-Surface Dynamics

A GEO-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) could provide daily coverage of basically all of North and South America with very good temporal coverage within the mapped area. This affords a key capability to disaster management, tectonic mapping and modeling, and vegetation mapping. The fine temporal sampling makes this system particularly useful for disaster management of flooding, hurricanes, and earthquakes. By using a fairly long wavelength, changing water boundaries caused by storms or flooding could be monitored in near real-time. This coverage would also provide revolutionary capabilities in the field of radar interferometry, including the capability to study the interferometric signature immediately before and after an earthquake, thus allowing unprecedented studies of Earth-surface dynamics. Preeruptive volcano dynamics could be studied as well as pre-seismic deformation, one of the most controversial and elusive aspects of earthquakes. Interferometric correlation would similarly allow near real-time mapping of surface changes caused by volcanic eruptions, mud slides, or fires. Finally, a GEO SAR provides an optimum configuration for soil moisture measurement that requires a high temporal sampling rate (1-2 days) with a moderate spatial resolution (1 km or better). From a technological point of view, the largest challenges involved in developing a geosynchronous SAR capability relate to the very large slant range distance from the radar to the mapped area. This leads to requirements for large power or alternatively very large antenna, the ability to steer the mapping area to the left and right of the satellite, and control of the elevation and azimuth angles. The weight of this system is estimated to be 2750 kg and it would require 20 kW of DC-power. Such a system would provide up to a 600 km ground swath in a strip-mapping mode and 4000 km dual-sided mapping in a scan-SAR mode.

Madsen, Soren↗
NASA NTRS1999

Sensitivity of Climate to Changes in NDVI

The sensitivity of global and regional climate to changes in vegetation density is investigated using a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model. The magnitude of the vegetation changes and their spatial distribution are based on natural decadal variability of the normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi). Different scenarios using maximum and minimum vegetation cover were derived from satellite records spanning the period 1982-1990. Albedo decreased in the northern latitudes and increased in the tropics with increased ndvi. The increase in vegetation density revealed that the vegetation's physiological response was constrained by the limits of the available water resources. The difference between the maximum and minimum vegetation scenarios resulted in a 46% increase in absorbed visible solar radiation and a similar increase in gross photosynthetic C02 uptake on a global annual basis. This caused the canopy transpiration and interception fluxes to increase, and reduced those from the soil. The redistribution of the surface energy fluxes substantially reduced the Bowen ratio during the growing season, resulting in cooler and moister near-surface climate, except when soil moisture was limiting. Important effects of increased vegetation on climate are : (1) A cooling of about 1.8 K in the northern latitudes during the growing season and a slight warming during the winter, which is primarily due to the masking of high albedo of snow by a denser canopy. and (2) A year round cooling of 0.8 K in the tropics. These results suggest that increases in vegetation density could partially compensate for parallel increases in greenhouse warming . Increasing vegetation density globally caused both evapotranspiration and precipitation to increase. Evapotranspiration, however increased more than precipitation resulting in a global soil-water deficit of about 15 %. A spectral analysis on the simulated results showed that changes in the state of vegetation could affect the low-frequency modes of the precipitation distribution and might reduce its low frequency variability in the tropics while increasing it in northern latitudes.

Bounoua, L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ensemble Cannonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the US

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble cannonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into nonoverlapping sectors. The cannonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all regions of the US and for all seasonal compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible for enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduced the spring predictability barrier over all regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and regional regional data. Moreover, the ECC forecasts can be applied to other climate subsystems and, in conjunction with further diagnostic or model studies will enables a better understanding of the dynamic links between climate variations and precipitation, not only for the US, but also for other regions of the world.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Improved Modeling of Land-Atmosphere Interactions using a Coupled Version of WRF with the Land Information System

The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many hydrometeorological processes. Accurate and high-resolution representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), vegetation, soil temperature and moisture content, and ground fluxes are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of weather and climate phenomena. The NASA/NWS Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center is currently investigating the potential benefits of assimilating high-resolution datasets derived from the NASA moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS). The LIS is a software framework that integrates satellite and ground-based observational and modeled data along with multiple land surface models (LSMs) and advanced computing tools to accurately characterize land surface states and fluxes. The LIS can be run uncoupled to provide a high-resolution land surface initial condition, and can also be run in a coupled mode with WRF to integrate surface and soil quantities using any of the LSMs available in LIS. The LIS also includes the ability to optimize the initialization of surface and soil variables by tuning the spin-up time period and atmospheric forcing parameters, which cannot be done in the standard WRF. Among the datasets available from MODIS, a leaf-area index field and composite SST analysis are used to improve the lower boundary and initial conditions to the LIS/WRF coupled model over both land and water. Experiments will be conducted to measure the potential benefits from using the coupled LIS/WRF model over the Florida peninsula during May 2004. This month experienced relatively benign weather conditions, which will allow the experiments to focus on the local and mesoscale impacts of the high-resolution MODIS datasets and optimized soil and surface initial conditions. Follow-on experiments will examine the utility of such an optimized WRF configuration for more complex weather scenarios such as convective initiation. This paper will provide an overview of the experiment design and present preliminary results from selected cases in May 2004.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Soil Moisture Acttive Passive Mission: Fault Protection Performance and Lessons Learned

Fault protection as a discipline involves a collection of flight software logic and operational processes for detecting unacceptable anomalous behavior, responding prior to reaching criticality, restricting the propagation of a failure beyond a fault containment region, and recovering the vehicle back to full or degraded functionality if possible. The System Fault Protection (SFP) design for the SMAP Earth orbiter was put to the test during its 90-day vehicle commissioning activities. During this time, the SFP software autonomously protected the vehicle from multiple faults to critical hardware, and the operations team successfully returned the observatory to its science state. The SFP also performed well in the presence of anomalous behavior below true safety limits by not taking unnecessary response actions, instead allowing the operations team time to monitor the behavior. Certain aspects of the SFP design were modified during operations via both parameter updates and a full flight software update in order to better match the vehicle behavior in the flight environment. An evaluation of the SMAP SFP performance during vehicle Commissioning will be provided in this paper, as well as a set of lessons learned largely focused on visibility, SFP mutability in operations, responses to peripheral device faults, and Safe Mode recovery and design. By capturing some of the knowledge gained during SMAP Commissioning, it is intended that this paper provide guidance for making future System Fault Protection designs more robust and supportive of operations.

Clark, Jessica↗
NASA NTRS2001

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Mechanical properties of lunar regolith and lunar soil simulant

Through the Surveyor 3 and 7, and Apollo 11-17 missions a knowledge of the mechanical properties of Lunar regolith were gained. These properties, including material cohesion, friction, in-situ density, grain-size distribution and shape, and porosity, were determined by indirect means of trenching, penetration, and vane shear testing. Several of these properties were shown to be significantly different from those of terrestrial soils, such as an interlocking cohesion and tensile strength formed in the absence of moisture and particle cementation. To characterize the strength and deformation properties of Lunar regolith experiments have been conducted on a lunar soil simulant at various initial densities, fabric arrangements, and composition. These experiments included conventional triaxial compression and extension, direct tension, and combined tension-shear. Experiments have been conducted at low levels of effective confining stress. External conditions such as membrane induced confining stresses, end platten friction and material self weight have been shown to have a dramatic effect on the strength properties at low levels of confining stress. The solution has been to treat these external conditions and the specimen as a full-fledged boundary value problem rather than the idealized elemental cube of mechanics. Centrifuge modeling allows for the study of Lunar soil-structure interaction problems. In recent years centrifuge modeling has become an important tool for modeling processes that are dominated by gravity and for verifying analysis procedures and studying deformation and failure modes. Centrifuge modeling is well established for terrestrial enginering and applies equally as well to Lunar engineering. A brief review of the experiments is presented in graphic and outline form.

Steven W Perkins↗
NASA NTRS2024

Investigating the Strength and Variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation Teleconnections to Hydroclimate and Maize Yields in Southern and East Africa

The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is critical for seasonal climate forecasts, but recent events diverged substantially from expectations in many regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa where seasonal forecasts are critical tools for addressing food security. Here, we evaluate 39 years (1982–2020) of data on hydroclimate, leaf area index, and maize yields to investigate the strength of ENSO teleconnections in southern and East Africa. Teleconnections to precipitation, soil moisture, and leaf area index are generally stronger during ENSO phases that cause drought conditions (El Niño in southern Africa and La Niña in East Africa), with seasonality that aligns well with the maize growing seasons. Within maize growing areas, however, ENSO teleconnections to hydroclimate and vegetation are generally weaker compared to the broader geographic regions, especially in East Africa. There is also little evidence that the magnitude of the ENSO event affects the hydroclimate or vegetation response in these maize regions. Maize yields in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe all correlate significantly with hydroclimate and leaf area index, with South Africa and Zimbabwe showing the strongest and most consistent yield responses to ENSO events. Our results highlight the chain of causality from El Niño and La Niña forcing of regional anomalies in hydroclimate to vegetation health and maize yields in southern and East Africa. The large spread across individual ENSO events, however, underscores the limitations of this climate mode for seasonal climate prediction in the region, and the importance of finding additional sources of skill for improving climate and yield forecasts.

El Niño Southern Oscillation↗