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Results for “multivariate statistical analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1977

Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida: Wind aloft profile change vs. time, phase 1

Wind vector change with respect to time at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is examined according to the theory of multivariate normality. The joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from fifteen years of twice daily Rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh, has been tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from one to five hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented.

Adelfang, S. I.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Prediction of the space adaptation syndrome

The univariate and multivariate relationships of provocative measures used to produce motion sickness symptoms were described. Normative subjects were used to develop and cross-validate sets of linear equations that optimally predict motion sickness in parabolic flights. The possibility of reducing the number of measurements required for prediction was assessed. After describing the variables verbally and statistically for 159 subjects, a factor analysis of 27 variables was completed to improve understanding of the relationships between variables and to reduce the number of measures for prediction purposes. The results of this analysis show that none of variables are significantly related to the responses to parabolic flights. A set of variables was selected to predict responses to KC-135 flights. A series of discriminant analyses were completed. Results indicate that low, moderate, or severe susceptibility could be correctly predicted 64 percent and 53 percent of the time on original and cross-validation samples, respectively. Both the factor analysis and the discriminant analysis provided no basis for reducing the number of tests.

Reschke, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Response of African Land Surface Phenology to Large Scale Climate Oscillations

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the African continent. Analysis of changes in phenology can provide quantitative information on the effect of climate variability on growing seasons in agricultural regions. Using a robust statistical methodology, we describe the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). We map the most significant positive and negative correlation for the four climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa between two phenological metrics and the climate indices. Our objective is to provide evidence of whether climate variability captured in the four indices has had a significant impact on the vegetative productivity of Africa during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by large scale variations in climate. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. In Western Africa the cumulative NDVI correlates with PDO in September-November. In Eastern Africa the start of the June-October season strongly correlates with PDO in March-May, while the PDO in December-February correlates with the start of the February-June season. The cumulative NDVI over this last season relates to the MEI of March-May. For Southern Africa, high correlations exist between SOS and NAO of September-November, and cumulative NDVI and MEI of March-May. The research shows that climate indices can be used to anticipate late start and variable vigor in the growing season of sensitive agricultural regions in Africa.

Brown, Molly E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gauges, loops, and polynomials for partition functions of graphical models

Graphical models represent multivariate and generally not normalized probability distributions. Computing the normalization factor, called the partition function, is the main inference challenge relevant to multiple statistical and optimization applications. The problem is #P-hard that is of an exponential complexity with respect to the number of variables. Here, aimed at approximating the partition function, we consider multi-graph models where binary variables and multivariable factors are associated with edges and nodes, respectively, of an undirected multi-graph. We suggest a new methodology for analysis and computations that combines the Gauge function technique from Chertkov and Chernyak with the technique developed in Anari and Oveis Gharan 2017 arXiv:1702.02937; Gurvits 2011 arXiv:1106.2844; Straszak and Vishnoi 2017 55th Annual Allerton Conf. on Communication, Control, and Computing, based on the recent progress in the field of real stable polynomials. We show that the Gauge function, representing a single-out term in a finite sum expression for the partition function which achieves extremum at the so-called belief-propagation gauge, has a natural polynomial representation in terms of gauges/variables associated with edges of the multi-graph. Moreover, Gauge function can be used to recover the partition function through a sequence of transformations allowing appealing algebraic and graphical interpretations. Algebraically, one step in the sequence consists of the application of a differential operator over gauges associated with an edge. Graphically, the sequence is interpreted as a repetitive elimination/contraction of edges resulting in multi-graph models on decreasing in size (number of edges) graphs with the same partition function as in the original multi-graph model. Even though the complexity of computing factors in the sequence of the derived multi-graph models and respective Gauge functions grow exponentially with the number of eliminated edges, polynomials associated with the new factors remain bi-stable if the original factors have this property. Moreover, we show that BP estimations in the sequence do not decrease, each low-bounding the partition function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Tripp, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical methods and neural network approaches for classification of data from multiple sources

Statistical methods for classification of data from multiple data sources are investigated and compared to neural network models. A problem with using conventional multivariate statistical approaches for classification of data of multiple types is in general that a multivariate distribution cannot be assumed for the classes in the data sources. Another common problem with statistical classification methods is that the data sources are not equally reliable. This means that the data sources need to be weighted according to their reliability but most statistical classification methods do not have a mechanism for this. This research focuses on statistical methods which can overcome these problems: a method of statistical multisource analysis and consensus theory. Reliability measures for weighting the data sources in these methods are suggested and investigated. Secondly, this research focuses on neural network models. The neural networks are distribution free since no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of the data is needed. This is an obvious advantage over most statistical classification methods. The neural networks also automatically take care of the problem involving how much weight each data source should have. On the other hand, their training process is iterative and can take a very long time. Methods to speed up the training procedure are introduced and investigated. Experimental results of classification using both neural network models and statistical methods are given, and the approaches are compared based on these results.

Benediktsson, Jon Atli↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian nonparametric analysis for zero-inflated multivariate count data with application to microbiome study

High-throughput sequencing technology has enabled researchers to profile microbial communities from a variety of environments, but analysis of multivariate taxon count data remains challenging. Here, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model with zero inflation to analyse multivariate count data from microbiome studies. A BNP approach flexibly models microbial associations with covariates, such as environmental factors and clinical characteristics. The model produces estimates for probability distributions which relate microbial diversity and differential abundance to covariates, and facilitates community comparisons beyond those provided by simple statistical tests. We compare the model to simpler models and popular alternatives in simulation studies, showing, in addition to these additional community-level insights, it yields superior parameter estimates and model fit in various settings. The model's utility is demonstrated by applying it to a chronic wound microbiome data set and a Human Microbiome Project data set, where it is used to compare microbial communities present in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1992

Factor analysis as a tool for spectral line component separation 21cm emission in the direction of L1780

The spectra of the 21cm HI radiation from the direction of L1780, a small high-galactic latitude dark/molecular cloud, were analyzed by multivariate methods. Factor analysis was performed on HI (21cm) spectra in order to separate the different components responsible for the spectral features. The rotated, orthogonal factors explain the spectra as a sum of radiation from the background (an extended HI emission layer), and from the L1780 dark cloud. The coefficients of the cloud-indicator factors were used to locate the HI 'halo' of the molecular cloud. Our statistically derived 'background' and 'cloud' spectral profiles, as well as the spatial distribution of the HI halo emission distribution were compared to the results of a previous study which used conventional methods analyzing nearly the same data set.

Toth, L. V.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multivariate discrimination in quantum target detection

In this work, we describe a simple multivariate technique of likelihood ratios for improved discrimination of signal and background in multi-dimensional quantum target detection. Furthermore, the technique combines two independent variables, time difference and summed energy, of a photon pair from the spontaneous parametric down-conversion source into an optimal discriminant. The discriminant performance was studied in experimental data and in Monte-Carlo modelling with clear improvement shown compared to previous techniques. As novel detectors become available, we expect this type of multivariate analysis to become increasingly important in multi-dimensional quantum optics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network in Utah, US, using both ray tracing-derived and empirical-derived celerity-range and backazimuth models

SUMMARY More realistic models for infrasound signal propagation across a region can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of spatial and temporal source localization estimates. Motivated by incomplete infrasound event bulletins in the Western US, the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network of stations located between 84–458 km from the Utah Test and Training Range, Utah, USA, is assessed using a series of near-surface explosive events with complementary ground truth (GT) information. Signal arrival times and backazimuth estimates are determined with an automatic F-statistic based signal detector and manually refined by an analyst. This study represents the first application of three distinct celerity-range and backazimuth models to an extensive suite of realistic signal detections for event location purposes. A singular celerity and backazimuth deviation model was previously constructed using ray tracing analysis based on an extensive archive of historical atmospheric specifications and is applied within this study to test location capabilities. Similarly, a set of multivariate, season and location specific models for celerity and backazimuth are compared to an empirical model that depends on the observations across the infrasound network and the GT events, which accounts for atmospheric propagation variations from source to receiver. Discrepancies between observed and predicted signal celerities result in locations with poor accuracy. Application of the empirical model improves both spatial localization precision and accuracy; all but one location estimates retain the true GT location within the 90 per cent confidence bounds. Average mislocation of the events is 15.49 km and average 90 per cent error ellipse areas are 4141 km2. The empirical model additionally reduces origin time residuals; origin time residuals from the other location models are in excess of 160 s while residuals produced with the empirical model are within 30 s of the true origin time. We demonstrate that event location accuracy is driven by a combination of signal propagation model and the azimuthal gap of detecting stations. A direct relationship between mislocation, error ellipse area and increased station azimuthal gaps indicate that for sparse networks, detection backazimuths may drive location biases over traveltime estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitive detection of structural dynamics using a statistical framework for comparative crystallography

Chemical and conformational changes are crucial to protein function and its pharmacological control. X-ray crystallography can reveal these changes in atomic detail, but standard analysis methods, which refine separate datasets, often overlook differences that are subtle or arise in only a subset of molecules. Direct comparison of crystallographic datasets is, in principle, more powerful, but systematic errors (“scales”) often mask changes in the crystallographic observables (“structure factors”). Machine learning algorithms that jointly estimate scales and structure factors can address this limitation. Here, we augment this approach with multivariate, structured priors derived from crystallographic theory, implemented in the variational deep learning framework Careless. Doing so strongly improves the detection of protein dynamics, element-specific anomalous signals, and the binding of drug candidates, offering a robust approach to comparative crystallography and, potentially, to detection of protein dynamics by other structure determination methods.

Hekstra, Doeke R. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (U↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of a Multivariable Parametric Cost Analysis for Space-Based Telescopes

Over the past 400 years, the telescope has proven to be a valuable tool in helping humankind understand the Universe around us. The images and data produced by telescopes have revolutionized planetary, solar, stellar, and galactic astronomy and have inspired a wide range of people, from the child who dreams about the images seen on NASA websites to the most highly trained scientist. Like all scientific endeavors, astronomical research must operate within the constraints imposed by budget limitations. Hence the importance of understanding cost: to find the balance between the dreams of scientists and the restrictions of the available budget. By logically analyzing the data we have collected for over thirty different telescopes from more than 200 different sources, statistical methods, such as plotting regressions and residuals, can be used to determine what drives the cost of telescopes to build and use a cost model for space-based telescopes. Previous cost models have focused their attention on ground-based telescopes due to limited data for space telescopes and the larger number and longer history of ground-based astronomy. Due to the increased availability of cost data from recent space-telescope construction, we have been able to produce and begin testing a comprehensive cost model for space telescopes, with guidance from the cost models for ground-based telescopes. By separating the variables that effect cost such as diameter, mass, wavelength, density, data rate, and number of instruments, we advance the goal to better understand the cost drivers of space telescopes.. The use of sophisticated mathematical techniques to improve the accuracy of cost models has the potential to help society make informed decisions about proposed scientific projects. An improved knowledge of cost will allow scientists to get the maximum value returned for the money given and create a harmony between the visions of scientists and the reality of a budget.

Dollinger, Courtnay↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Using foreground/background analysis to determine leaf and canopy chemistry

Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) has become a well established procedure for analyzing imaging spectrometry data, however, the technique is relatively insensitive to minor sources of spectral variation (e.g., discriminating stressed from unstressed vegetation and variations in canopy chemistry). Other statistical approaches have been tried e.g., stepwise multiple linear regression analysis to predict canopy chemistry. Grossman et al. reported that SMLR is sensitive to measurement error and that the prediction of minor chemical components are not independent of patterns observed in more dominant spectral components like water. Further, they observed that the relationships were strongly dependent on the mode of expressing reflectance (R, -log R) and whether chemistry was expressed on a weight (g/g) or are basis (g/sq m). Thus, alternative multivariate techniques need to be examined. Smith et al. reported a revised SMA that they termed Foreground/Background Analysis (FBA) that permits directing the analysis along any axis of variance by identifying vectors through the n-dimensional spectral volume orthonormal to each other. Here, we report an application of the FBA technique for the detection of canopy chemistry using a modified form of the analysis.

Pinzon, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Information extraction from multivariate images

An overview of several multivariate image processing techniques is presented, with emphasis on techniques based upon the principal component transformation (PCT). Multiimages in various formats have a multivariate pixel value, associated with each pixel location, which has been scaled and quantized into a gray level vector, and the bivariate of the extent to which two images are correlated. The PCT of a multiimage decorrelates the multiimage to reduce its dimensionality and reveal its intercomponent dependencies if some off-diagonal elements are not small, and for the purposes of display the principal component images must be postprocessed into multiimage format. The principal component analysis of a multiimage is a statistical analysis based upon the PCT whose primary application is to determine the intrinsic component dimensionality of the multiimage. Computational considerations are also discussed.

Park, S. K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Method Optimization for Sampling and Analysis Instrumentation

This work presents a generalized approach for analytical method optimization that branches the gap between techniques historically employed and accurate modern optimization techniques suitable for various applications. The novelty of the described strategy is the utilization of multivariate, multiobjective optimization with Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions to bound the optimization space to solutions within the physical limitations of instrumentation. Briefly, the basic steps outlined in this paper are to (1) determine the objective(s) that should be maximized or minimized based on the goals of the analytical application, (2) conduct a screening experiment, (3) perform ANOVA to determine the parameters which have a statistically significant effect on the objective, (4) conduct an experiment (e.g., Box-Behnken design) to collect data for fitting the objective equation, and (5) determine the physical constraints of the parameters and solve the Lagrangian to determine the optimal method parameters. A broad approach to optimization target selection allows for robust method tuning to develop improved data sets amenable for chemometrics and machine learning algorithm development. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry was selected as a use case due to its broad use across scientific fields and time-consuming method development involving numerous parameters. In conclusion, this strategy can reduce the cost of research, improve data quality, and enable the rapid development of new analytical technique.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗