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DOE OSTI2024

Samoa Updater: An Application of the Levenberg-Marquardt Method to Update DELFIC Predictions Using Field Measurements

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Forensics Operations (DFO) is a member of the Ground Collections Task Force (GCTF), which is responsible for sample collection of radiological debris for attribution should a nuclear detonation ever occur in the United States. The DFO runs the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) Fallout Planning Tool to predict the deposition of fallout from a nuclear detonation. This prediction is refined using the DELFIC Updater tool, which takes ground measurements and adjusts DELFIC inputs to minimize the difference between prediction and observation, yielding improved predictions of fallout in locations both measured and not yet measured. Samoa, a framework for uncertainty analysis and optimization, is used to improve DELFIC predictive fallout modeling. This new capability using Samoa, dubbed “Samoa Updater,” is compared with the current DELFIC Updater, a brute-force sampling approach. Samoa Updater uses the Levenberg– Marquardt (LM) method, a gradient-based nonlinear least squares approach that uses the functional shape of the input space to increase optimization speed. In simulated test cases Samoa Updater yields faster and more accurate solutions than the current Updater.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi - September 2024 Meeting Notes

Information obtained from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi) is required to inform future Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. Commercial nuclear power plants. A collaborative U.S. and Japanese effort was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy to identify Daiichi examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. This document summarizes information presented at and findings, action items, and recommendations by U.S. and Japanese experts in reactor safety and plant operations during the September 2024 Forensics Effort meeting. Significant safety insights were obtained in several areas: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties and knowledge gaps in severe accident modeling progression, these insights continue to be used to assess whether additional updates are needed in guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Furthermore, Daiichi-related activities, such as code modeling improvements and analysis, testing, and new technology deployment efforts, have the potential to offer additional safety and economic benefits to the operating fleet and new light water reactor (LWR) and non-LWR designs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Editorial: Applications of spectroscopy and chemometrics in nuclear materials analysis

Optical analysis techniques, including spectroscopy and image analysis, have many advantages when applied to the study of nuclear materials. They require small sample sizes, can be performed remotely, and can be proceduralized through consistent practice. Most importantly, they provide a wealth of information by generating multivariate data. For example, ultraviolet–visible–near-infrared absorbance spectroscopy of actinides in aqueous and organic solutions is dependent on the oxidation state, anionic complexation, and temperature. These variables are important for solution-based separation processes, and sensitivity to these factors, combined with online monitoring, can drive the efficiency and control of these processes. The morphology and chemical composition of actinide particles can also provide a vital clue to the mechanisms by which the particles were formed, providing forensic information on the origins of the particles.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Position-Specific Carbon Isotope Fingerprinting of Fluorinated Organics and Degradation Products

Fluorinated organic compounds are of growing environmental and forensic relevance due to their widespread use in pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, and consumer products, their environmental persistence, and potential ecological and human health impacts. Elucidating their sources and transformation pathways is therefore a major focus of current research. Stable carbon isotope analysis provides a powerful approach for tracing molecular origins and linking parent compounds to degradation products. Recent isotope measurements have largely relied on mass-spectrometry techniques, which provide only an average isotope ratio across a compound. In this work, we employ a novel nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy tool to determine position-specific carbon isotope ratios ( 13 C/ 12 C) in organofluorine compounds and their degradation products. This approach enables isotope measurements without combustion or extensive purification and, crucially, resolves ratios at individual carbon positions rather than bulk averages. The resulting intramolecular isotope fingerprints are unique to a molecule’s source. Applied to selected pharmaceuticals and pesticides, these fingerprints allow discrimination of chemically identical compounds. Moreover, we show that the 13 C/ 12 C signature at the fluorinated carbon persists through degradation, demonstrated for lansoprazole and fipronil. The 19 F NMR data produced for the 13 C/ 12 C analyses are also well suited for impurity profiling, providing an additional dimension for fingerprinting fluorinated organics. These findings suggest that position-specific isotope analysis can serve as part of a broader suite of tools for source characterization of organofluorine compounds and their breakdown derivatives, with potential applications in product validation, forensics, and linking these compounds to their breakdown products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Summary of FY25 activities on the project Realistic Reaction Evaluations for Fission Products Off Stability (RREFPOS)

Applications such nonproliferation, post-detonation forensics, spent-fuel assay, reactor burnup and design, as well as astrophysics, rely on the accurate description of the neutron interaction with unstable fission products. Current neutron-induced cross-section descriptions for these nuclei are either non-existent or based on simplified assumptions, leading to unquantified impacts on predicted cross-sections. The goal of the Realistic Reaction Evaluations for Fission Products Off Stability (RREFPOS) project is to develop a reproducible methodology leading to a more predictive and realistic new set of evaluated nuclear data, improving the reliability of applications involving fission products off stability. The current report documents the activities related to the RREFPOS project in its first year, corresponding to the Fiscal Year of 2025 (FY25).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

Phimister, James R.↗